Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#139
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#98
Pace68.1#235
Improvement-1.4#290

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#166
First Shot-4.3#300
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#15
Layup/Dunks-4.5#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#67
Freethrows-5.7#365
Improvement-1.1#281

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#118
First Shot-0.1#170
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#82
Layups/Dunks-0.4#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#23
Freethrows-3.0#326
Improvement-0.3#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 18.9% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 94.0% 97.3% 90.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 91.9% 85.2%
Conference Champion 17.0% 20.1% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.2% 18.9% 13.6%
Second Round1.5% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 172 Arkansas St. W 90-65 70%     1 - 0 +20.8 +10.5 +8.9
  Tue, Nov 11 213 @Rice W 81-69 57%     2 - 0 +11.7 +11.2 +0.9
  Fri, Nov 14 252 Abilene Christian W 76-66 81%     3 - 0 +2.0 +6.2 -3.8
  Tue, Nov 18 153 @Fresno St. L 78-80 44%     3 - 1 +0.9 +9.8 -9.0
  Fri, Nov 21 264 @Pepperdine W 63-60 65%     4 - 1 +0.5 -6.5 +7.1
  Sat, Nov 29 184 @Texas Arlington W 70-69 50%    
  Wed, Dec 3 202 UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-72 74%    
  Sun, Dec 7 361 Louisiana Monroe W 84-66 96%    
  Wed, Dec 17 226 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-65 78%    
  Mon, Dec 29 308 @East Texas A&M W 72-66 72%    
  Wed, Dec 31 285 @Northwestern St. W 72-67 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 250 @SE Louisiana W 69-66 61%    
  Mon, Jan 5 82 @McNeese St. L 65-74 22%    
  Sat, Jan 10 276 Houston Christian W 73-62 83%    
  Mon, Jan 12 192 Incarnate Word W 74-68 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 205 @New Orleans W 73-72 54%    
  Mon, Jan 19 270 @Nicholls St. W 72-68 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 199 @Lamar W 67-66 53%    
  Mon, Jan 26 285 Northwestern St. W 75-64 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 250 SE Louisiana W 72-63 79%    
  Mon, Feb 2 82 McNeese St. L 68-71 41%    
  Sat, Feb 7 199 Lamar W 70-63 72%    
  Mon, Feb 9 308 East Texas A&M W 75-63 86%    
  Sat, Feb 14 202 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-75 53%    
  Mon, Feb 16 226 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-68 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 270 Nicholls St. W 75-65 82%    
  Mon, Feb 23 205 New Orleans W 76-69 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 276 @Houston Christian W 70-65 66%    
  Mon, Mar 2 192 @Incarnate Word W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.2 4.1 4.0 2.5 1.1 0.2 17.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.4 7.5 6.7 3.6 1.3 0.2 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.7 5.4 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.2 3.0 0.9 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.2 0.2 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.5 6.6 8.1 10.1 11.9 12.2 11.9 10.7 7.8 5.3 2.6 1.1 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
21-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.0
20-2 93.8% 2.5    2.1 0.3
19-3 76.0% 4.0    3.1 0.9 0.0
18-4 52.0% 4.1    2.6 1.4 0.1
17-5 30.1% 3.2    1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0
16-6 12.6% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-7 3.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 17.0% 17.0 11.3 4.9 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.2% 56.7% 56.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
21-1 1.1% 60.6% 60.6% 11.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4
20-2 2.6% 46.7% 46.7% 12.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.4
19-3 5.3% 39.3% 39.3% 12.6 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.2
18-4 7.8% 32.7% 32.7% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.3
17-5 10.7% 27.7% 27.7% 13.3 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 7.7
16-6 11.9% 20.0% 20.0% 13.5 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.6
15-7 12.2% 14.8% 14.8% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 10.4
14-8 11.9% 10.0% 10.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 10.7
13-9 10.1% 6.5% 6.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.5
12-10 8.1% 3.8% 3.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.8
11-11 6.6% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 6.4
10-12 4.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.4
9-13 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
8-14 1.9% 1.9
7-15 1.1% 1.1
6-16 0.5% 0.5
5-17 0.3% 0.3
4-18 0.1% 0.1
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22
Total 100% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.1 4.5 1.5 0.2 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.3 7.1 21.4 7.1 50.0 14.3