Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +4.3 103
Results Rating +7.4 79
Consistency 0.12 42
Pace 65.8 254
Improvement -1.4 244

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 131 C- C+ A- F D
Defense B- 94 C+ C+ C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 D 53% 297 -4.2 322
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 118 C 39% 150 +2.4 61
Three Pointers 39% 214 B- 36% 102 +0.4 161
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 309 C -0.4 182
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 215
Second Chance C+ 32.6% 107 C- 1.00 219 C+ 0.33 137
Opponents' Steals A 6.7% 8
Other Turnovers B 6.1% 56
Turnovers A- 12.8% 12
Freethrows F+ 0.23 355 D- 67% 336 F 0.16 361
Total Offense C+ +1.4 131

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 30% 357 D 13.3% 312
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 157 C 5.5% 223
Three Pointers C 83% 201 B- 0.5% 78
Total D- 47% 330 C- 6.2% 247

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 106 B- 54% 76 +0.1 182
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 165 D- 43% 337 +1.2 290
Three Pointers 37% 276 B 31% 66 -3.2 55
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 199 B- -2.0 99
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 119
Second Chance C+ 29.2% 133 C 1.04 195 C+ 0.30 152
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.4% 107
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 275
Turnovers C 17.0% 169
Freethrows C+ 0.29 130 D+ 74% 291 C+ 0.21 153
Total Defense B- +3.0 94

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 189 C 11.3% 156
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 190 D+ 3.4% 267
Three Pointers B+ 77% 35 B 1.5% 61
Total B- 52% 104 C+ 6.0% 147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 232 17.7 254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 356 0.14 84
Consistency 0.13 234 0.13 246
Improvement -0.5 209 -1.0 244

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 120 107 96
Results Rating Rank 97 85 62
Conference Record 19 - 3 20 - 2 20 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33% 34% 30%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 97% 100% 85%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round33% 34% 30%
Second Round3% 3% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 80.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 28 - 4
Quad 417 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 145 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 73% +16  99% 1 - 0 A +23 B+ +8 C A+ F+ A+ +13 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 237 @Rice W 81 - 69 70% +8  97% 2 - 0 B +11 B +6 B C B- B +5 B+ A F
 Fri, Nov 14 241 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 86% +1  58% 3 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 C- D+ A+ C -0 B B- F+
 Tue, Nov 18 129 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 47% +1  53% 3 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +9 C+ A+ B- D -6 F D B-
 Fri, Nov 21 280 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 78% -3  27% 4 - 1 C -1 F -12 F A- C+ A+ +11 B+ C+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 182 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 61% +3  70% 4 - 2 C- -3 C- -2 D+ C C+ C- -2 D+ B- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 144 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 73% +8  93% 5 - 2 1 - 0 B +11 C- -2 F+ C A+ A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 353 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  99% 6 - 2 C+ +2 B +7 A- D A D -5 A F F
 Wed, Dec 17 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 82% +1  45% 7 - 2 2 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 C C+ B+ B +4 B D- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 308 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 83% +6  78% 8 - 2 3 - 0 A +21 B- +5 D+ C+ B+ A+ +18 B- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 269 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 76% +7  89% 9 - 2 4 - 0 B- +7 C+ +3 C- F A- B +4 B- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 290 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 80% +8  91% 10 - 2 5 - 0 B- +5 C+ +2 D- C+ B- B +4 B- F+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 85 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 29% +2  75% 10 - 3 5 - 1 B- +8 C+ +3 D+ B+ C B +4 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 294 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 92% +15  98% 11 - 3 6 - 1 B- +7 A+ +14 C B A+ D -5 F C A
 Mon, Jan 12 270 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 89% +7  86% 12 - 3 7 - 1 C +1 F -24 F C C- A+ +25 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 193 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 62% +1  60% 13 - 3 8 - 1 B- +6 A- +10 A- F A+ D+ -4 D- D- D+
 Mon, Jan 19 253 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 73% +16  97% 14 - 3 9 - 1 A- +15 B+ +8 A- F C+ A +9 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 220 @Lamar W 88 - 81 68% +4  89% 15 - 3 10 - 1 B- +7 A+ +18 A+ D- A+ F -11 D F C
 Tue, Jan 27 269 Northwestern St. W 69 - 67 89% +8  98% 16 - 3 11 - 1 D+ -7 F -11 F D+ A- B +4 A+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 290 SE Louisiana W 85 - 58 91% +21  98% 17 - 3 12 - 1 A- +16 A+ +20 A+ A+ A C+ +0 C+ F A-
 Mon, Feb 2 85 McNeese St. W 67 - 60 51% +6  92% 18 - 3 13 - 1 B +11 D- -6 D+ D+ A+ A+ +17 A+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 220 Lamar W 84 - 74 84% +10  89% 19 - 3 14 - 1 C+ +4 A- +9 A+ D- A+ D -6 F+ C+ D+
 Mon, Feb 9 308 East Texas A&M W 74 - 70 93% +2  54% 20 - 3 15 - 1 D+ -8 C- -1 D D B D -6 F A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 66 - 57 51% +5  96% 21 - 3 16 - 1 B+ +13 C +1 D- C- A- A+ +14 A B B+
 Mon, Feb 16 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78 - 68 64% +13  99% 22 - 3 17 - 1 B +11 A- +9 B F+ A+ C+ +2 B- C D+
 Sat, Feb 21 253 Nicholls St. W 81 - 78 87% +4  83% 23 - 3 18 - 1 D+ -5 B +6 F+ A+ A+ F -11 F B B+
 Mon, Feb 23 193 New Orleans L 73 - 77 81% -7  2% 23 - 4 18 - 2 D -9 D+ -4 F B+ A+ D -5 F+ C B+
 Sat, Feb 28 294 @Houston Christian W 73 - 64 81%
 Mon, Mar 2 270 @Incarnate Word W 75 - 67 76%
Totals 25 - 4 20 - 2 +4 C+ +1 B- C D B- +3 B- D- F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D C B- C 34% 43% 39% D C- C+ C- C+ A- F+ D- F B- B- D- B B- 42% 21% 37% C- C+ C+ C C+ C C+ D+ C+
1.11 53% 39% 36% 0 -1 0.99 33% 1.0 .33 13% .23 67% .16 1.04 54% 43% 31% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.0 .30 17% .29 74% .17
Nov
7		 Arkansas St. B+ F A+ D- B- 27% 29% 44% F+ C A+ A+ A+ F+ C- F F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% D+ A+ A+ D+ A C- F D- F
1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17 0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43
Nov
11		 Rice B B C+ A+ B+ 24% 33% 43% D B F A+ C B- A- C B+ B A+ B+ F B 28% 43% 28% A B+ C+ A+ A F F B- F
1.20 67% 38% 43% +8 -3 1.12 23% 1.4 .32 15% .40 74% .30 1.02 38% 30% 46% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.6 .20 12% .57 68% .39
Nov
14		 Abilene Christian C+ F A+ A+ C- 43% 17% 40% C C- F A+ D+ A+ C F F C C+ B- A+ B 47% 35% 18% B B C+ B B- F+ C- F F+
1.13 35% 50% 53% +4 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25 0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28
Nov
18		 Fresno St. B+ B- F+ D+ C+ 41% 23% 36% C C+ A+ C+ A+ B- F F F D F+ F F F 55% 21% 23% D F D+ D D B- D- A+ B-
1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05 1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20
Nov
21		 Pepperdine F D+ A+ F F 33% 11% 56% C- F C- A+ A- C+ F A+ F A+ A+ C+ C- B+ 38% 24% 38% C+ B+ A F C+ A- C+ F D
0.94 56% 50% 23% -9 +1 0.85 31% 1.5 .47 15% .02 100% .02 0.89 41% 36% 35% -6 -1 0.89 21% 1.2 .25 22% .27 93% .25
Nov
29		 Texas Arlington C- F B F+ D+ 41% 37% 22% D D+ B+ F C C+ F B F C- A+ F F C- 59% 15% 26% F D+ F+ A B- C+ F F F
0.99 48% 42% 27% -5 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 16% .15 75% .12 1.07 39% 67% 40% -4 +2 0.97 41% 0.7 .30 21% .51 80% .41
Dec
3		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- F+ D- C+ D 26% 36% 38% F F+ D A- C A+ B C B A+ A A A+ A+ 51% 20% 29% D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F D C D+
1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28 0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
7		 Louisiana Monroe B A+ F A+ A 38% 24% 38% D- A- D+ D+ D A D- F F+ D B- A- A+ A+ 46% 18% 37% D- A F+ F F F F+ F F
1.32 91% 21% 45% +15 0 1.31 32% 1.1 .35 11% .20 62% .12 1.04 50% 30% 19% -13 +1 0.77 30% 1.4 .42 12% .38 79% .30
Dec
17		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C C F A+ C+ 45% 29% 26% D C C- B C+ B+ A+ F A+ B B+ A- A- B+ 50% 17% 33% D- B F C+ D- C+ F A+ D-
1.08 59% 18% 50% +1 -1 1.03 28% 1.1 .31 17% .72 55% .40 0.94 48% 29% 29% -10 +1 0.86 38% 0.9 .35 19% .48 56% .27
Dec
29		 East Texas A&M B- F A+ B- C- 25% 27% 47% F D+ B+ D- C+ B+ C- C C- A+ A+ B- F+ C+ 30% 26% 45% A B- B+ A+ A+ B+ D A+ A+
1.16 38% 50% 38% +1 -2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 14% .30 71% .21 0.74 36% 33% 38% -5 -1 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 22% .28 29% .08
Dec
31		 Northwestern St. C+ B B F C- 46% 18% 36% C+ C- C+ F F A- C+ D+ C B B- C- A+ B+ 48% 20% 32% F B- A+ F B+ F F A+ D-
1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25 0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27
Jan
3		 SE Louisiana C+ F B+ C D 28% 32% 40% F+ D- A F C+ B- D+ B C- B C- A- B+ C+ 30% 34% 36% A- B- B+ F F+ C A+ F B
1.10 43% 44% 35% -2 -2 0.94 42% 0.9 .37 18% .35 79% .27 0.95 60% 29% 28% -6 -2 0.86 23% 1.5 .34 18% .20 91% .18
Jan
5		 McNeese St. C+ F A+ D D+ 35% 17% 48% C D+ B B+ B+ C F F F B D+ F A- C- 33% 16% 51% C+ C- D- A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A
1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09 1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15
Jan
10		 Houston Christian A+ B A+ C- C 40% 8% 52% B C A+ F B A+ F+ A+ D D F D- B- F 45% 17% 38% D- F C- C C A F F F
1.36 67% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 49% 0.9 .43 10% .21 83% .18 1.07 68% 43% 31% +4 +1 1.12 30% 0.9 .26 22% .35 82% .29
Jan
12		 Incarnate Word F F+ F F F 39% 27% 33% F+ F B- D+ C C- B- F F+ A+ B- B A+ A+ 53% 24% 22% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B C B C+
0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22 0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18
Jan
17		 New Orleans A- C+ A A+ A 38% 28% 34% D- A- B- F F A+ A+ D A D+ C F C+ F 30% 37% 33% A+ D- C F D- D+ A+ A+ A+
1.23 58% 50% 41% +7 -1 1.14 39% 0.6 .22 7% .47 70% .33 1.16 56% 60% 33% +7 -3 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 18% .20 55% .11
Jan
19		 Nicholls St. B+ A B+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% D+ A- A F F C+ B- B- B A A+ F A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% B- A+ F A- D- C- D+ F F+
1.20 75% 44% 43% +13 0 1.28 44% 0.3 .13 20% .38 80% .30 0.94 28% 45% 21% -18 0 0.66 37% 0.9 .33 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
24		 Lamar A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 36% 47% F A+ F B+ D- A+ D+ B- C- F F D+ B D 29% 27% 44% D D D F F C D F F
1.31 78% 47% 48% +17 -3 1.28 20% 1.2 .23 9% .34 71% .25 1.21 67% 43% 30% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.7 .61 16% .27 87% .23
Jan
27		 Northwestern St. F F+ F C- F 30% 36% 34% F F F A+ D+ A- D F F B A+ B C A+ 43% 31% 26% C- A+ C- F F+ D- A+ B+ A+
0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18 0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15
Jan
31		 SE Louisiana A+ A F A+ A+ 24% 22% 53% D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A F F F C+ A B+ D- C 33% 33% 35% B+ C+ D+ F F A- D+ F F+
1.40 73% 20% 58% +19 -1 1.38 38% 1.8 .67 15% .21 64% .14 0.96 46% 31% 36% -5 -2 0.88 30% 1.3 .37 21% .36 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 McNeese St. D- F A+ C+ D+ 33% 24% 43% D D+ C+ F+ D+ A+ D+ A- C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ C- F F A+ C C C
0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28 0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22
Feb
7		 Lamar A- B A+ A+ A+ 29% 40% 31% F A+ F A- D- A+ C- A+ B D A+ F D+ F 28% 46% 26% A F+ B+ C- C+ D+ B- F C-
1.23 64% 47% 53% +15 -3 1.25 19% 1.2 .23 12% .37 82% .30 1.09 40% 60% 36% +6 -4 1.06 29% 1.0 .29 15% .21 83% .17
Feb
9		 East Texas A&M C- C+ F B- D 47% 22% 31% C- D B- F D B B F+ C+ D F D- D F 32% 15% 53% C F A+ D+ A+ B+ C- D+ C-
1.11 58% 18% 38% -3 0 0.98 36% 0.8 .31 15% .35 65% .23 1.05 87% 43% 36% +11 0 1.26 8% 1.0 .08 21% .25 69% .17
Feb
14		 UT Rio Grande Valley C D+ A- F F+ 38% 23% 38% C D- A F C- A- A D- B A+ B F A+ A 33% 20% 48% B- A C- A+ B B+ C+ B- C+
1.05 56% 45% 22% -6 0 0.89 43% 0.6 .25 13% .42 65% .27 0.91 53% 56% 23% -6 0 0.89 29% 0.8 .23 21% .22 73% .16
Feb
16		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- D B- A+ B 48% 20% 32% C+ B C- F F+ A+ C+ D+ C C+ B- F A+ B- 44% 16% 40% D+ B- C- B- C D+ A+ F A
1.16 54% 40% 44% +3 +1 1.10 27% 0.7 .19 9% .43 69% .29 1.01 50% 56% 23% -7 +1 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 16% .21 75% .16
Feb
21		 Nicholls St. B C- F C- F 31% 8% 61% C+ F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F+ F D- A+ F F 41% 10% 49% F+ F A+ F B B+ A- F C+
1.22 60% 0% 33% -3 +1 0.98 36% 1.8 .64 15% .32 67% .21 1.17 65% 20% 50% +13 +2 1.31 12% 1.7 .20 20% .21 82% .17
Feb
23		 New Orleans D+ F F F F 55% 26% 19% C F B+ B- B+ A+ B- A+ A- D D+ F A+ D- 52% 20% 27% F F+ F A C B+ F F F
1.08 45% 29% 20% -14 0 0.75 42% 1.1 .44 7% .38 83% .32 1.13 61% 67% 25% +4 +1 1.11 43% 0.8 .36 22% .45 88% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 2.0 33.7 61.5 97.2 1st
2nd 2.8 2.8 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 4.8 33.7 61.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 61.5    61.5
19-3 100.0% 33.7    14.1 19.6
18-4 41.4% 2.0    0.3 1.7
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total 97.2% 97.2 75.8 21.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 61.5% 34.9% 34.9% 12.2 1.0 14.3 6.0 0.2 40.1
19-3 33.7% 31.3% 31.3% 12.5 0.2 4.7 5.3 0.4 23.1
18-4 4.8% 26.8% 26.8% 12.7 0.5 0.7 0.1 3.5
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 12.4 66.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 21.5% 100.0% 12.2 4.6 66.8 27.9 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 24.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 15.5%