Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.2 #108
Expected Predictive Rating +5.3 #92
Pace 66.0 #272
Improvement +0.1 #179

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #180 D+ B- A- F D
Defense #59 B B- C- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #297 1.02 #327 -5.0 #335
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #77 0.79 #125 +2.5 #62
Three Pointers 40% #196 1.00 #198 -0.6 #203
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #264 -3.2 #263
Freethrows 12.4 #352 66% #338 8.2 #361
Second Chance 35.0% #66 1.04 #189 0.36 #87
Turnovers 13.7% #33
Total Offense -0.4 #180

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #42 1.06 #68 -1.0 #213
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #144 0.77 #212 -0.6 #220
Three Pointers 35% #334 0.92 #71 +4.9 #24
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #76 +3.2 #77
Freethrows 18.4 #236 72% #148 13.2 #135
Second Chance 28.7% #108 0.98 #99 0.28 #85
Turnovers 15.9% #221
Total Defense +4.6 #59

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #299 0.6% #220
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #238 -6.9% #63
Possession Length 18.0 #247 17.8 #271
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #363 0.16 #137
Improvement -3.0 #332 +3.1 #32

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.7% 32.4% 26.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 42.5% 48.5% 27.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.7% 32.4% 26.5%
Second Round3.1% 3.5% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 71.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 46 - 6
Quad 417 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 133 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 71% +16  1 - 0 +23 +11 C A+ F +11 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 247 @Rice W 81 - 69 72% +8  2 - 0 +10 +10 B- C+ B +1 B C F
 Fri, Nov 14 212 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 83% +1  3 - 0 +4 +4 C- D A+ +0 A A- F
 Tue, Nov 18 152 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 54% +1  3 - 1 +1 +12 C A+ B- -10 F D- C
 Fri, Nov 21 286 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 78% -3  4 - 1 -1 -7 F A+ B +6 B- C A
 Sat, Nov 29 154 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 54% +3  4 - 2 -2 +1 D C+ B -3 C- B C
 Wed, Dec 3 235 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 85% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +6 -0 F D+ A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 354 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 96% +11  6 - 2 +4 +11 A F A+ -8 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 17 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 80% +1  7 - 2 2 - 0 +4 +3 B- C B+ +2 C+ D+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 321 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 84% +6  8 - 2 3 - 0 +20 +8 D- B- A+ +15 B A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 276 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 77% +7  9 - 2 4 - 0 +6 +3 D F A- +4 A- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 266 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 75% +8  10 - 2 5 - 0 +7 +5 D C B- +3 C+ F C+
 Mon, Jan 5 80 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 28% +2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +8 +5 C B- C- +3 B- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 301 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 92% +15  11 - 3 6 - 1 +7 +16 C B+ A+ -7 F C- A+
 Mon, Jan 12 187 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 80% +7  12 - 3 7 - 1 +5 -16 F C+ B- +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 245 @New Orleans W 78 - 72 72%
 Mon, Jan 19 205 @Nicholls St. W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Jan 24 220 @Lamar W 66 - 62 66%
 Mon, Jan 26 276 Northwestern St. W 75 - 61 90%
 Sat, Jan 31 266 SE Louisiana W 73 - 60 89%
 Mon, Feb 2 80 McNeese St. L 69 - 70 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 220 Lamar W 69 - 59 83%
 Mon, Feb 9 321 East Texas A&M W 77 - 60 94%
 Sat, Feb 14 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 66 68%
 Mon, Feb 16 182 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68 - 65 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 205 Nicholls St. W 76 - 66 82%
 Mon, Feb 23 245 New Orleans W 81 - 69 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 @Houston Christian W 72 - 63 81%
 Mon, Mar 2 187 @Incarnate Word W 69 - 66 60%
Totals 22 - 7 17 - 5 +4 +0 D+ B- A- +5 B B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.7 10.5 14.0 9.4 2.9 42.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.7 10.6 13.8 11.1 4.0 0.3 45.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 8.3 14.1 19.2 21.7 18.0 9.7 2.9 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 2.9    2.9
20-2 97.3% 9.4    7.9 1.5
19-3 77.7% 14.0    9.5 4.4 0.0
18-4 48.3% 10.5    5.5 4.8 0.2
17-5 24.6% 4.7    1.9 2.5 0.3 0.0
16-6 7.0% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
15-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 42.5% 42.5 27.9 13.8 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 2.9% 47.9% 47.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5
20-2 9.7% 43.5% 43.4% 0.1% 12.2 0.4 2.8 1.1 0.0 5.5 0.1%
19-3 18.0% 38.7% 38.7% 12.6 0.1 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.0
18-4 21.7% 34.5% 34.5% 12.9 0.0 2.2 4.0 1.2 0.0 14.2
17-5 19.2% 28.2% 28.2% 13.1 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.5 0.1 13.8
16-6 14.1% 22.6% 22.6% 13.4 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.2 10.9
15-7 8.3% 18.2% 18.2% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 6.8
14-8 3.8% 12.3% 12.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.3
13-9 1.7% 7.2% 7.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-10 0.6% 4.2% 4.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-11 0.1% 0.1
10-12 0.1% 0.1
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 30.7% 30.7% 0.0% 12.8 69.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 11.4 0.4 1.4 54.7 41.7 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%