Stonehill
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.6 #344
Expected Predictive Rating -14.5 #344
Pace 65.9 #275
Improvement -0.3 #206

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #354 D- D- F F C
Defense #268 C- C F C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #226 0.99 #338 -4.0 #311
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.70 #256 -0.6 #211
Three Pointers 43% #153 0.97 #237 -0.1 #183
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #307 -4.7 #308
Freethrows 12.6 #347 71% #239 9.0 #356
Second Chance 27.7% #263 0.90 #331 0.25 #314
Turnovers 20.9% #357
Total Offense -8.5 #354

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #32 1.14 #151 -3.3 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #233 0.69 #92 +1.3 #95
Three Pointers 37% #297 1.11 #304 +0.5 #157
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #233 -1.5 #237
Freethrows 17.6 #202 69% #54 12.2 #196
Second Chance 26.0% #40 1.19 #329 0.31 #159
Turnovers 11.2% #365
Total Defense -3.1 #268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #211 1.5% #304
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.0% #317 1.4% #213
Possession Length 18.9 #330 16.2 #34
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #256 0.19 #257
Improvement +1.4 #100 -1.8 #295

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 6.7% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 3.5% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 58.8% 78.2% 50.8%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 3.4% 12.5%
First Four5.2% 6.4% 4.7%
First Round2.3% 3.0% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Away) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 98 @DePaul L 64 - 72 4% -8  0 - 1 +0 -6 C- C- D- +7 A+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 123 @Rhode Island L 57 - 80 7% -12  0 - 2 -18 -12 F D+ F -5 C B F
 Fri, Nov 14 281 @Fairfield L 71 - 73 OT 23% -2  0 - 3 -6 -12 F F C +7 A+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 336 Loyola Maryland L 63 - 74 48% -3  0 - 4 -22 -13 D F F -10 F C- F
 Mon, Nov 17 6 @Iowa St. L 57 - 96 0% -18  0 - 5 -15 -3 A- F F -12 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 326 Lafayette W 74 - 70 56% +4  1 - 5 -9 -6 B F F -3 B- B- C
 Wed, Nov 26 284 Umass Lowell L 64 - 75 44% -5  1 - 6 -21 -13 F F C+ -8 B- C F
 Sun, Nov 30 156 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 76 9% -8  1 - 7 -11 -7 F A+ F -4 F A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 329 @Bryant L 65 - 77 34% -4  1 - 8 -19 -0 C F D+ -21 F F F
 Wed, Dec 17 335 @New Hampshire L 58 - 59 37% -1  1 - 9 -9 -15 F F F +6 A+ B+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 61 @Syracuse L 48 - 77 2% -12  1 - 10 -17 -13 F C+ F -8 D+ B F
 Fri, Jan 2 340 New Haven L 55 - 70 60% -5  1 - 11 0 - 1 -29 -18 F D+ D -12 F C F
 Sun, Jan 4 316 @Wagner W 69 - 60 31% +2  2 - 11 1 - 1 +3 +3 C D- C +1 B C D+
 Thu, Jan 8 260 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 76 20% -6  2 - 12 1 - 2 -10 -1 B- F F -9 D- F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 349 Chicago St. W 85 - 82 OT 67% +3  3 - 12 2 - 2 -13 -0 C+ B+ F -13 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 308 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 67 29%
 Mon, Jan 19 360 @St. Francis (PA) W 70 - 69 51%
 Fri, Jan 23 219 LIU Brooklyn L 68 - 73 30%
 Sun, Jan 25 260 Central Connecticut St. L 66 - 69 39%
 Thu, Jan 29 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 72 - 67 65%
 Sat, Jan 31 295 @Le Moyne L 68 - 75 26%
 Thu, Feb 5 351 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 69 - 70 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 76 15%
 Thu, Feb 12 349 @Chicago St. L 69 - 71 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 316 Wagner W 69 - 68 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 340 @New Haven L 61 - 64 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 295 Le Moyne L 71 - 72 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 360 St. Francis (PA) W 72 - 66 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 308 Mercyhurst W 65 - 64 50%
Totals 9 - 20 8 - 10 -12 -9 D- D- F -3 C- C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.3 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.8 5.4 1.4 0.1 13.9 4th
5th 0.7 6.2 7.0 1.6 0.1 15.6 5th
6th 0.4 5.1 7.4 2.0 0.1 14.9 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 7.3 2.8 0.1 13.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 6.0 3.1 0.2 11.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.4 3.9 2.8 0.2 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.4 0.3 4.6 10th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.5 7.5 12.5 16.5 17.9 16.0 11.8 7.3 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 87.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 61.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-3 33.3% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-4 10.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.4% 34.8% 34.8% 16.0 0.2 0.3
13-3 1.4% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.2 1.1
12-4 3.8% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 0.6 3.2
11-5 7.3% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.7 6.6
10-6 11.8% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.9 10.9
9-7 16.0% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.9 15.1
8-8 17.9% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.8 17.1
7-9 16.5% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.5 15.9
6-10 12.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 12.3
5-11 7.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.4
4-12 3.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.4
3-13 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 16.0 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%