Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.9 214
Results Rating -1.6 188
Consistency 0.17 297
Pace 63.3 321
Improvement -0.9 230

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 307 D+ C F C- C
Defense C+ 110 C+ C B C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 336 C- 57% 202 -4.5 333
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 251 C+ 39% 131 -0.8 224
Three Pointers 51% 23 D 31% 307 +2.5 95
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 211 D+ -2.6 273
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 268
Second Chance B 35.2% 50 D- 0.89 341 C 0.31 169
Opponents' Steals F 12.8% 360
Other Turnovers D+ 8.3% 299
Turnovers F 21.0% 358
Freethrows C 0.31 170 F+ 66% 348 C- 0.20 240
Total Offense D -5.2 307

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 153 C+ 10.5% 146
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 232 C+ 4.3% 135
Three Pointers B+ 92% 25 C 0.9% 192
Total B 61% 66 B 4.6% 64

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 331 D 63% 313 -2.3 97
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 133 B+ 33% 21 -0.7 129
Three Pointers 46% 37 B- 32% 83 +1.3 249
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 75 C+ -1.1 137
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 123
Second Chance D+ 32.8% 284 B 0.95 61 C 0.31 185
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.2% 25
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 244
Turnovers B 19.1% 55
Freethrows D+ 0.33 278 B- 70% 71 C- 0.24 248
Total Defense C+ +2.3 110

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 353 C 10.7% 182
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 186 A+ 11.8% 5
Three Pointers D 89% 317 B 1.8% 42
Total D- 64% 342 B- 6.8% 87

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 296 17.6 241
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 158 0.22 327
Consistency 0.14 309 0.12 181
Improvement -3.1 325 +2.2 74

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 235 214 188
Results Rating Rank 226 195 153
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 14 - 6
Conference Finish 4 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30% 36% 21%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round30% 36% 21%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 31 - 22 - 4
Quad 418 - 620 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 122 @UNLV W 86 - 81 20% -1  43% 1 - 0 B +11 C +0 C- C+ C A +10 A- F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 114 @Bradley W 78 - 67 19% +2  64% 2 - 0 A- +17 C+ +2 A+ A F A+ +15 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 18 80 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 11% -6  12% 2 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 A- A F C+ +0 C- A- F
 Sat, Nov 22 331 Prairie View W 69 - 68 78% -2  38% 3 - 1 D -10 F -11 D F F C+ +1 B+ C+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 226 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 53% -14  0% 3 - 2 D- -14 C +0 B- D- B- F -17 F+ F F
 Tue, Dec 2 264 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 71% +5  77% 4 - 2 B +8 C- -2 D D+ C A +11 A+ C B
 Sun, Dec 7 314 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 81% -0  34% 5 - 2 C- -2 C- -1 F+ B+ D+ C -1 F A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 10 124 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 20% -9  15% 5 - 3 F -23 F -13 F+ F F F -10 F F B-
 Thu, Dec 18 217 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 40% +1  61% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D+ -7 D- -7 F C+ F+ C -1 D- B D
 Sat, Dec 20 311 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 61% +7  85% 6 - 4 1 - 1 A +18 A+ +17 A+ F A- B +4 F A- A
 Thu, Jan 1 363 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 95% -2  27% 7 - 4 2 - 1 D- -14 F -11 F F A- C- -3 F+ A B+
 Sat, Jan 3 317 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 83% -0  41% 8 - 4 3 - 1 D -9 F -10 F A F C+ +1 B- A- C
 Thu, Jan 8 279 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 53% -3  28% 9 - 4 4 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 B B- D+ C -1 C- D- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 338 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 71% +2  52% 10 - 4 5 - 1 B +8 B- +5 C+ A+ F B+ +6 A D- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 260 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 71% +3  71% 11 - 4 6 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 D B+ D+ C+ +1 A- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 278 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 74% +10  96% 12 - 4 7 - 1 C+ +4 F+ -10 C- C- F A+ +14 A+ B- A
 Tue, Jan 20 231 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 42% -18  0% 12 - 5 7 - 2 F+ -17 F -18 F C F C +0 C+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 317 @Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 65% +7  94% 13 - 5 8 - 2 C +1 B- +4 A+ C- F C- -2 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 363 @Western Illinois W 84 - 44 87% +21  98% 14 - 5 9 - 2 A+ +25 A- +9 C A+ C+ A+ +18 A- A+ A-
 Tue, Feb 3 303 Arkansas Little Rock W 55 - 52 79% +1  69% 15 - 5 10 - 2 D -8 F -19 F+ D+ F A +11 B- C A+
 Thu, Feb 5 338 Southern Indiana W 76 - 54 86% +13  91% 16 - 5 11 - 2 B- +7 C+ +3 C- A+ F B+ +6 A B B-
 Sat, Feb 7 279 Morehead St. L 55 - 61 74% -0  37% 16 - 6 11 - 3 F+ -16 F -19 F D- C- B- +2 B- C- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 278 @Lindenwood L 74 - 75 53% +0  47% 16 - 7 11 - 4 C- -5 C -0 B+ C F D+ -5 F A- A
 Sat, Feb 14 260 @SIU Edwardsville W 81 - 76 48% +2  53% 17 - 7 12 - 4 C+ +2 A +12 A+ C F F+ -9 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 231 Southeast Missouri St. L 53 - 56 OT 65% -5  2% 17 - 8 12 - 5 D -10 F -24 F F C- A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Thu, Feb 19 303 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65 - 67 60% +2  67% 17 - 9 12 - 6 D+ -7 C- -2 F B- B+ D -6 D F B
 Thu, Feb 26 311 Tennessee Tech W 64 - 49 80% +6  92% 18 - 9 13 - 6 C+ +3 F -13 F D- C- A+ +17 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Feb 28 217 Tennessee St. W 74 - 71 62%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 -3 D -5 F+ D+ C C+ +2 D F+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- C+ D D+ 32% 31% 51% C D+ B D- C F C F+ C- C+ D B+ B- C+ 32% 22% 46% B- C+ D+ B C B D+ B- C-
1.01 57% 39% 31% -3 0 0.96 35% 0.9 .31 21% .31 66% .20 1.05 63% 33% 32% -1 -1 0.99 33% 1.0 .31 19% .33 70% .22
Nov
4		 UNLV C F A+ C C- 30% 12% 58% C+ C- C- A- C+ C A+ F A+ A D B A A- 33% 19% 49% B- A- C+ F F A+ F F+ F
1.07 47% 50% 34% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.3 .35 17% .73 56% .41 1.01 64% 38% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.5 .47 27% .64 76% .48
Nov
12		 Bradley C+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 9% 52% A+ A+ D+ A+ A F C F D+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% D- A+ C+ F D A F F F
1.06 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 1.6 .42 31% .34 65% .22 0.91 63% 13% 6% -19 +1 0.64 26% 1.3 .33 19% .62 81% .51
Nov
18		 Florida St. D+ D- A+ A- A- 31% 18% 51% C+ A- B+ A+ A F A+ B+ A+ C+ D+ A+ C- C- 45% 9% 46% D C- C- A+ A- F D+ A+ B
0.97 50% 63% 39% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.2 .43 34% .42 76% .32 1.15 64% 20% 35% +1 +2 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 8% .33 57% .19
Nov
22		 Prairie View F B- A+ F D- 40% 18% 43% C D F+ F F F A+ D A+ C+ C C- A+ B- 23% 45% 32% A+ B+ D A- C+ C F C- F
0.99 63% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 23% .56 70% .39 0.98 55% 38% 20% -7 -4 0.79 27% 0.9 .24 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
23		 Southern Miss C D+ A+ C B- 38% 20% 43% C- B- C+ F D- B- A- F C- F F B- F+ F 31% 33% 36% B+ F+ F D- F F B A+ A+
1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23 1.25 71% 33% 38% +4 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17
Dec
2		 Charleston Southern C- B F F+ D- 27% 15% 58% B- D A F D+ C A+ A A+ A F+ D+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% A- A+ D+ B- C B B- A B
1.11 62% 14% 29% -7 0 0.88 40% 0.7 .27 12% .55 78% .43 0.85 67% 40% 24% -9 0 0.83 31% 0.8 .26 21% .23 58% .13
Dec
7		 Alabama St. C- D- A+ F F+ 28% 17% 54% D F+ A+ D B+ D+ A- F F C F B F F 36% 28% 36% B- F B+ A+ A+ B- F+ A+ C-
1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21 0.97 71% 31% 41% +6 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21
Dec
10		 Southern Illinois F F D F F 28% 12% 60% B- F+ C F F F D D+ D F F B F F 52% 22% 26% F F D+ F F B- F+ C+ D-
0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16 1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25
Dec
18		 Tennessee St. D- F A+ F F 43% 16% 41% C- F B D+ C+ F+ A+ C- A+ C D D- C- F 41% 43% 17% A- D- A D B D C- D+ C-
1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38 1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23
Dec
20		 Tennessee Tech A+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% D A+ C- F F A- D- A D+ B F F B- F 18% 24% 58% A- F B- A+ A- A B- C+ B
1.36 71% 55% 46% +17 -1 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 11% .23 85% .19 0.98 88% 55% 31% +6 -2 1.11 27% 0.8 .21 24% .25 75% .19
Jan
1		 Western Illinois F C F A- F 50% 38% 12% F F B F F A- A+ D- A+ C- F+ A+ F F 17% 36% 47% A+ F+ F A+ A B+ A F B
1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37 0.94 63% 18% 45% +1 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16
Jan
3		 Eastern Illinois F F A+ F F 22% 15% 63% D F C A+ A F A+ A A+ C+ F B- A+ C 18% 33% 49% A- B- D A+ A- C F A+ F
0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45 0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27
Jan
8		 Morehead St. B B- A A- B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B A D- B- D+ A+ D- A+ C D B A- C+ 47% 13% 40% F C- F A- D- B+ F B+ D-
1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35 1.10 62% 33% 28% -3 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27
Jan
10		 Southern Indiana B- D F A+ C+ 53% 14% 33% B+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F A A- A+ B+ A+ B B+ A 30% 23% 48% C+ A D F+ D- B- F B F
1.17 52% 17% 50% +2 +2 1.09 53% 1.0 .53 22% .41 80% .33 0.89 23% 30% 29% -16 -1 0.68 32% 1.0 .32 19% .57 62% .36
Jan
15		 SIU Edwardsville D+ C+ A+ F D 15% 17% 67% D+ D B B B+ D+ A+ F A+ C+ A+ F A+ B 22% 41% 37% A+ A- B- D+ C F C- A+ A-
1.02 57% 50% 26% -6 -1 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 17% .50 65% .32 0.93 42% 55% 15% -7 -4 0.80 25% 1.1 .27 9% .28 44% .12
Jan
17		 Lindenwood F+ B- C C- C 35% 26% 39% F+ C- C+ D- C- F F C+ F A+ B+ C A+ A+ 18% 47% 36% A+ A+ C+ B- B- A F B F
0.97 63% 36% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 24% .20 73% .15 0.77 50% 33% 13% -15 -5 0.62 29% 1.0 .29 24% .50 63% .31
Jan
20		 Southeast Missouri St. F D+ F+ F F 36% 8% 56% B F A+ F C F A+ F C C C+ A- C+ C 27% 15% 58% B- C+ F B F B- C A+ B+
0.78 54% 33% 20% -14 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30 1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17
Jan
29		 Eastern Illinois B- A A+ A+ A+ 34% 7% 59% B- A+ B F+ C- F A F B- C- F A+ A+ B- 38% 28% 34% D+ C+ D+ C D+ F F A+ F
1.12 71% 67% 42% +13 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27 1.01 65% 20% 22% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29
Jan
31		 Western Illinois A- B- A D C- 51% 8% 42% A- C A+ A- A+ C+ C- B C A+ A+ C+ B+ A+ 37% 14% 49% F A- A- A+ A+ A- D- C- D-
1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23 0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24
Feb
3		 Arkansas Little Rock F A C- D- F+ 20% 8% 73% C- F+ C- D D+ F F+ F F A C+ C- A+ B 41% 30% 28% D B- B- D- C A+ A+ C A+
0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11 0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southern Indiana C+ D+ A+ C- C 28% 26% 46% F C- A+ C+ A+ F B- F F+ B+ B A+ B- A- 23% 34% 43% A+ A D A+ B B- F D+ F
1.18 54% 50% 33% +1 -1 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 23% .35 53% .18 0.84 45% 13% 30% -14 -3 0.68 32% 0.6 .18 19% .42 68% .29
Feb
7		 Morehead St. F F D- F F 27% 7% 67% C+ F A F D- C- A+ D A+ B- C+ A F C- 22% 41% 37% A+ B- D- B C- A- F F F
0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33 1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34
Feb
12		 Lindenwood C A- F A+ A- 42% 11% 47% B- B+ C+ C- C F A- F D D+ F C C+ F 59% 13% 28% F F C A+ A- A B F C-
1.07 68% 0% 43% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.0 .33 25% .40 52% .21 1.08 78% 33% 31% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.8 .23 25% .27 79% .21
Feb
14		 SIU Edwardsville A A C A+ A+ 27% 18% 55% C A+ D A- C F A+ B+ A+ F+ A A+ F F+ 36% 11% 53% F F F F F A+ F D F
1.20 67% 38% 46% +12 0 1.25 27% 1.1 .31 21% .43 78% .34 1.12 44% 20% 46% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.3 .51 27% .48 71% .34
Feb
17		 Southeast Missouri St. F D- F F F 30% 32% 38% F F C+ F F C- D- F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 19% 40% C A+ F A+ C A+ F D F
0.74 50% 24% 15% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 18% .34 65% .22 0.78 40% 11% 21% -20 0 0.63 38% 0.9 .33 27% .46 71% .32
Feb
19		 Arkansas Little Rock C- C- F D F 31% 18% 51% D F A+ F B- B+ F C- F D F A F F 23% 47% 30% A+ D D F F B F B+ F
1.09 60% 11% 32% -6 0 0.90 53% 0.7 .38 15% .20 70% .14 1.12 80% 25% 46% +5 -4 1.02 33% 1.6 .53 20% .38 61% .23
Feb
26		 Tennessee Tech F C F F F 42% 15% 43% B F D- D D- C- D- C+ D A+ B A+ A+ A+ 15% 32% 54% A+ A+ A+ A A+ A F D- F
0.97 59% 25% 26% -7 +1 0.91 25% 1.1 .28 15% .23 77% .18 0.74 50% 15% 23% -17 -3 0.61 20% 0.9 .17 24% .54 81% .44



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 62.3 62.3 2nd
3rd 8.4 8.4 3rd
4th 29.3 29.3 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 37.7 62.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 62.3% 36.0% 36.0% 14.9 0.1 4.2 15.0 3.1 39.9
13-7 37.7% 21.2% 21.2% 15.3 0.0 0.4 4.4 3.2 29.7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.5% 30.5% 0.0% 15.0 69.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 22.5% 100.0% 14.9 0.6 18.9 66.7 13.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.7%
Lose Out 13.5%