Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.4 #225
Expected Predictive Rating +2.5 #127
Pace 65.1 #290
Improvement -2.2 #293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #248 D D- C+ F C-
Defense #187 C D C D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #343 1.00 #336 -7.1 #352
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #206 0.87 #51 +0.6 #152
Three Pointers 50% #25 0.95 #259 +3.1 #83
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #279 -3.4 #280
Freethrows 13.5 #337 66% #341 8.9 #352
Second Chance 22.4% #354 1.12 #89 0.25 #309
Turnovers 15.7% #126
Total Offense -2.8 #248

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #325 1.35 #351 +0.5 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #127 0.67 #69 +0.4 #167
Three Pointers 46% #57 0.98 #148 -1.7 #263
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #207 -0.9 #207
Freethrows 19.5 #288 71% #117 13.8 #95
Second Chance 41.5% #364 0.91 #33 0.38 #303
Turnovers 16.5% #192
Total Defense -0.6 #187

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #237 -1.2% #80
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #272 3.0% #244
Possession Length 21.1 #364 17.9 #287
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #353 0.24 #343
Improvement -0.1 #190 -2.1 #308

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 26.5% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 98.8% 99.5% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.0% 94.9%
Conference Champion 50.2% 57.0% 32.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round23.8% 26.1% 18.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 72.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 33 - 4
Quad 417 - 520 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 134 @UNLV W 86 - 81 23% -18  1 - 0 +9 +5 F C- C +4 A F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 114 @Bradley W 78 - 67 17% -9  2 - 0 +18 +5 A+ C- F +13 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 117 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 19% -19  2 - 1 -8 -4 B- D+ F -3 D A+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 317 Prairie View W 69 - 68 72% -6  3 - 1 -8 -7 F F F -1 A- C B
 Sun, Nov 23 210 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 48% -17  3 - 2 -13 +3 B F C+ -18 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 217 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 60% -7  4 - 2 +11 +3 C F F +9 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 306 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 78% -12  5 - 2 -1 -1 F F F -0 F A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 10 126 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 21% -15  5 - 3 -24 -14 F F F -10 F D+ B
 Thu, Dec 18 226 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 39% -15  5 - 4 0 - 1 -8 -2 F F F -6 F B C-
 Sat, Dec 20 314 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 60% -7  6 - 4 1 - 1 +18 +20 A F A- +1 F A- A+
 Thu, Jan 1 357 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 90% -15  7 - 4 2 - 1 -11 -5 F F B -5 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 311 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 79% -8  8 - 4 3 - 1 -8 -7 F C+ F -1 B A- C+
 Thu, Jan 8 304 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 57% -15  9 - 4 4 - 1 +3 +10 D+ C+ F -7 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 343 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 68% -17  10 - 4 5 - 1 +9 +7 C F F +4 A F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 278 SIU Edwardsville W 69 - 63 72%
 Sat, Jan 17 252 Lindenwood W 75 - 70 68%
 Tue, Jan 20 224 @Southeast Missouri St. L 71 - 74 39%
 Sat, Jan 24 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 72 - 66 73%
 Thu, Jan 29 311 @Eastern Illinois W 67 - 65 59%
 Sat, Jan 31 357 @Western Illinois W 69 - 61 78%
 Thu, Feb 5 343 Southern Indiana W 75 - 64 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 304 Morehead St. W 73 - 65 76%
 Thu, Feb 12 252 @Lindenwood L 72 - 73 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 278 @SIU Edwardsville W 67 - 66 51%
 Tue, Feb 17 224 Southeast Missouri St. W 74 - 71 61%
 Thu, Feb 19 283 @Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 69 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 314 Tennessee Tech W 75 - 66 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 226 Tennessee St. W 74 - 71 61%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 -3 -3 D D- C+ -1 C D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.1 9.3 14.6 12.5 8.0 2.9 0.6 50.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 6.9 7.8 2.8 0.3 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.5 5.4 1.2 0.1 11.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 4.3 1.0 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.2 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.5 7.0 11.6 15.5 18.3 17.5 12.8 8.0 2.9 0.6 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 100.0% 2.9    2.9
17-3 100.0% 8.0    7.8 0.1
16-4 97.7% 12.5    11.0 1.4 0.0
15-5 83.6% 14.6    9.8 4.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 50.4% 9.3    3.1 4.2 1.7 0.3
13-7 13.8% 2.1    0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-8 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 50.2% 50.2 35.5 10.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.6% 50.8% 50.8% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-2 2.9% 45.6% 45.6% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.6
17-3 8.0% 41.8% 41.8% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.0 4.6
16-4 12.8% 38.4% 38.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 0.4 7.9
15-5 17.5% 32.1% 32.1% 15.1 0.0 0.7 3.7 1.2 11.9
14-6 18.3% 25.0% 25.0% 15.3 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.7 13.8
13-7 15.5% 17.4% 17.4% 15.5 0.1 1.2 1.4 12.8
12-8 11.6% 8.9% 8.9% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 10.6
11-9 7.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.7
10-10 3.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.4
9-11 1.6% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 1.5
8-12 0.4% 0.4
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 14.9 75.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.6 4.9 41.0 44.3 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%