Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #209
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #254
Pace 68.9 #190
Improvement -3.0 #319

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #253 C C+ F D B-
Defense #164 C B- B F C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.17 #167 -2.1 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #314 0.57 #352 -3.7 #340
Three Pointers 52% #18 1.01 #195 +5.1 #33
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #195 -0.6 #193
Freethrows 16.0 #256 66% #336 10.6 #292
Second Chance 31.3% #160 1.09 #121 0.34 #128
Turnovers 19.4% #328
Total Offense -2.9 #253

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #125 1.26 #304 -3.3 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #67 0.65 #50 -0.3 #201
Three Pointers 35% #328 1.02 #201 +3.0 #69
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #199 -0.6 #200
Freethrows 21.3 #337 74% #254 15.7 #31
Second Chance 31.3% #210 0.92 #47 0.29 #108
Turnovers 18.6% #73
Total Defense +0.1 #164

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #107 -0.7% #105
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.5% #211 2.0% #221
Possession Length 18.3 #277 16.7 #96
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #177 0.24 #342
Improvement -1.7 #285 -1.3 #267

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 8.6% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 43.4% 63.4% 36.6%
.500 or above in Conference 44.8% 66.3% 37.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.9% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round5.9% 8.4% 5.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 25.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 410 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 88 @Pittsburgh L 59 - 74 13% -3  0 - 1 -5 -6 C+ F D+ -0 A- F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 90 @Grand Canyon W 90 - 81 13% +3  1 - 1 +18 +22 A+ A+ A+ -4 B- F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 127 @St. Bonaventure L 80 - 84 23% +5  1 - 2 +1 +8 C A+ F -7 F A A+
 Wed, Nov 19 164 @Toledo L 75 - 92 31% -8  1 - 3 -15 -4 D+ A F -10 F D- B+
 Sun, Nov 23 288 UNC Greensboro L 62 - 68 67% +9  1 - 4 -13 -19 F F F +6 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 230 Georgia Southern W 67 - 61 53% +4  2 - 4 +2 -7 C- C+ F +10 B+ A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 349 Chicago St. W 87 - 64 89% +21  3 - 4 +7 +5 A+ F C +2 B B- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 142 Wright St. W 69 - 68 47% +0  4 - 4 1 - 0 -1 -4 D+ A+ F +3 C- A- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 353 @IU Indianapolis W 78 - 55 77% +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 +13 +2 B D- F +12 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 214 @Robert Morris L 77 - 80 OT 39% +3  5 - 5 2 - 1 -3 +6 A+ A- F -9 D C D-
 Sat, Dec 20 299 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 65 78% +8  6 - 5 -2 -3 C+ F F +1 A+ C- B
 Mon, Dec 29 273 Detroit Mercy L 68 - 73 74% -7  6 - 6 2 - 2 -14 -11 F F B+ -4 F A+ A
 Thu, Jan 1 135 Oakland L 83 - 85 45% +4  6 - 7 2 - 3 -4 +10 D- A+ A+ -13 F C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 179 @Northern Kentucky L 79 - 94 34% -15  6 - 8 2 - 4 -13 -2 F D A+ -10 F D C+
 Wed, Jan 7 237 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 71 66% -0  6 - 9 2 - 5 -9 -4 F A+ F -5 C- B- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 142 @Wright St. L 68 - 75 25%
 Sat, Jan 17 328 @Cleveland St. W 78 - 74 67%
 Thu, Jan 22 243 Green Bay W 73 - 68 67%
 Sat, Jan 24 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77 - 73 64%
 Fri, Jan 30 353 IU Indianapolis W 89 - 75 90%
 Wed, Feb 4 237 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 214 Robert Morris W 73 - 70 61%
 Thu, Feb 12 135 @Oakland L 77 - 84 25%
 Sun, Feb 15 273 @Detroit Mercy W 75 - 74 52%
 Wed, Feb 18 328 Cleveland St. W 81 - 71 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 179 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 73 56%
 Wed, Feb 25 229 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74 - 76 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 243 @Green Bay L 70 - 71 46%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 11 -3 -3 C C+ F +0 C B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.0 0.2 5.7 3rd
4th 0.6 4.3 3.8 0.5 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.7 5.9 1.2 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 7.9 2.6 0.1 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 8.6 5.0 0.4 16.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.2 8.0 6.7 0.9 0.0 19.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 7.3 5.0 1.1 0.0 19.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.7 11.1 15.6 19.9 18.3 13.9 8.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 21.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.9% 21.2% 21.2% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-7 3.5% 18.1% 18.1% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.9
12-8 8.2% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 7.0
11-9 13.9% 10.7% 10.7% 15.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 12.4
10-10 18.3% 6.4% 6.4% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 17.1
9-11 19.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.3 0.6 18.9
8-12 15.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 15.2
7-13 11.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 10.9
6-14 5.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.6
5-15 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.1 93.7 0.0%