Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
144 Arkansas St. 14.2%   18 - 11 11 - 7 +1.0      +1.1 139 -0.1 173 78.6 9 +0.4 151 -2.1 7
150 Troy 34.3%   14   18 - 11 12 - 6 +0.4      +0.7 147 -0.3 181 64.7 277 +1.2 140 -0.5 1
173 Appalachian St. 9.2%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -1.0      -2.2 233 +1.2 139 60.1 358 -1.4 186 -1.7 6
186 South Alabama 4.2%   19 - 10 11 - 7 -1.8      -1.9 223 +0.1 164 63.0 327 +0.4 152 -1.4 4
189 Marshall 23.3%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -1.8      +2.5 107 -4.4 302 72.2 81 -0.2 160 -1.1 3
204 James Madison 2.1%   16 - 14 9 - 9 -2.4      -0.4 172 -2.0 235 64.3 294 -2.3 200 -3.7 8
225 Southern Miss 1.1%   14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.7      -4.2 282 +0.5 155 71.3 102 -3.2 221 -4.0 9
226 Coastal Carolina 5.4%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -3.8      -4.7 298 +0.9 143 67.7 204 -0.8 172 -1.7 5
231 Texas St. 6.1%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -4.0      -3.7 267 -0.3 180 65.9 251 -2.4 204 -1.0 2
241 Old Dominion 0.0%   10 - 20 7 - 11 -4.4      -2.3 236 -2.2 242 71.6 100 -6.5 267 -6.8 13
262 Georgia Southern 0.0%   14 - 15 8 - 10 -5.6      -1.2 198 -4.4 304 75.2 28 -4.7 242 -5.2 10
298 Georgia St. 0.1%   8 - 21 7 - 11 -8.2      -6.3 328 -1.8 227 69.5 144 -8.5 301 -6.2 11
303 Louisiana 0.1%   10 - 21 7 - 11 -8.3      -6.0 321 -2.3 244 60.2 357 -8.2 297 -6.6 12
354 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 27 1 - 17 -14.5      -5.8 317 -8.7 360 74.2 42 -20.5 361 -19.6 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 25 262 Georgia Southern 66 204 James Madison 82   
Wed, Feb 25 186 South Alabama 89 354 Louisiana Monroe 54   
Fri, Feb 27 226 Coastal Carolina 69 204 James Madison 68   
Fri, Feb 27 173 Appalachian St. 57 231 Texas St. 60   
Fri, Feb 27 262 Georgia Southern 99 189 Marshall 82   
Fri, Feb 27 298 Georgia St. 73 241 Old Dominion 81   
Fri, Feb 27 186 South Alabama 55 225 Southern Miss 68   
Fri, Feb 27 150 Troy 80 354 Louisiana Monroe 65   
Fri, Feb 27 144 Arkansas St. 81 303 Louisiana 58   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Mar 3 298 Georgia St. 67 303 Louisiana 66 51%   
Tue, Mar 3 241 Old Dominion 86 354 Louisiana Monroe 75 83%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 2.0 100.0
Troy 1.0 100.0
Appalachian St. 2.0 100.0
South Alabama 2.0 100.0
Marshall 2.0 100.0
James Madison 8.0 100.0
Southern Miss 8.0 100.0
Coastal Carolina 2.0 100.0
Texas St. 2.0 100.0
Old Dominion 10.3 82.9 17.1
Georgia Southern 10.0 100.0
Georgia St. 11.4 50.4 8.4 41.1
Louisiana 11.4 49.6 8.6 41.8
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 18 - 11 100.0
Troy 12 - 6 18 - 11 100.0
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
South Alabama 11 - 7 19 - 10 100.0
Marshall 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
James Madison 9 - 9 16 - 14 100.0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 14 - 15 100.0
Coastal Carolina 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
Texas St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Old Dominion 8 - 11 11 - 20 17.1 82.9
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 14 - 15 100.0
Georgia St. 8 - 11 9 - 21 49.6 50.4
Louisiana 7 - 12 10 - 22 50.4 49.6
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 18 2 - 28 82.9 17.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St.
Troy 100.0% 100.0
Appalachian St.
South Alabama
Marshall
James Madison
Southern Miss
Coastal Carolina
Texas St.
Old Dominion
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.2 4.8 8.3 0.8 85.8 0.0%
Troy 34.3% 34.3% 0.0% 14   0.2 14.8 17.8 1.5 0.0 65.7 0.0%
Appalachian St. 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 5.4 2.8 0.1 90.8 0.0%
South Alabama 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.2 0.0 95.8 0.0%
Marshall 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 0.8 10.3 11.5 0.6 76.7 0.0%
James Madison 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.1 97.9 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 0.1 98.9 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 3.5 0.6 94.6 0.0%
Texas St. 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.5 2.0 93.9 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.7
2nd Round 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 14.2% 0.0% 14.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 34.3% 0.0% 34.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 9.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 23.3% 0.0% 23.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.4% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.1% 0.3% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%