Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
147 Arkansas St. 12.2%   17 - 11 10 - 7 +0.7      +1.3 133 -0.6 190 77.9 13 +0.3 153 -2.3 6
150 Troy 23.4%   14   17 - 11 11 - 6 +0.5      +0.6 150 -0.1 173 65.2 270 +1.2 143 -0.5 3
169 Appalachian St. 13.9%   17 - 11 11 - 6 -0.7      -1.7 214 +1.0 144 60.1 357 -0.9 174 -0.9 4
173 Marshall 21.4%   18 - 11 11 - 6 -0.9      +2.6 106 -3.6 280 72.3 80 +0.6 151 +0.1 1
176 South Alabama 19.8%   19 - 9 11 - 6 -1.0      -1.3 202 +0.2 161 63.2 324 +1.2 144 -0.2 2
197 James Madison 2.5%   16 - 13 9 - 8 -2.2      -0.3 172 -1.9 231 64.4 288 -1.7 191 -2.7 8
231 Coastal Carolina 2.2%   17 - 12 10 - 7 -3.9      -4.8 296 +0.9 146 67.9 198 -1.2 182 -2.5 7
236 Texas St. 3.5%   16 - 12 10 - 7 -4.2      -3.5 260 -0.7 193 66.0 250 -2.8 214 -1.5 5
238 Southern Miss 0.8%   13 - 15 8 - 9 -4.3      -4.2 283 0.0 169 71.5 100 -3.6 228 -5.0 9
241 Old Dominion 0.0%   9 - 20 6 - 11 -4.6      -2.3 236 -2.3 242 71.3 104 -7.0 275 -7.7 13
272 Georgia Southern 0.1%   13 - 15 7 - 10 -6.4      -2.0 223 -4.4 305 75.4 27 -5.2 247 -6.1 11
293 Georgia St. 0.1%   8 - 20 7 - 10 -7.8      -6.1 323 -1.7 229 69.2 159 -8.0 294 -5.4 10
297 Louisiana 0.0%   10 - 20 7 - 10 -8.0      -5.5 312 -2.5 247 59.7 362 -8.2 297 -6.5 12
354 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 26 1 - 16 -14.6      -6.0 321 -8.6 358 74.7 34 -20.6 362 -19.5 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 24 147 Arkansas St. 89 238 Southern Miss 84   
Tue, Feb 24 231 Coastal Carolina 76 293 Georgia St. 71   
Tue, Feb 24 173 Marshall 97 241 Old Dominion 88   
Tue, Feb 24 297 Louisiana 59 150 Troy 78   
Wed, Feb 25 272 Georgia Southern 66 197 James Madison 82   
Wed, Feb 25 176 South Alabama 89 354 Louisiana Monroe 54   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 27 231 Coastal Carolina 67 197 James Madison 72 68%   
Fri, Feb 27 176 South Alabama 73 238 Southern Miss 67 73%   
Fri, Feb 27 169 Appalachian St. 66 236 Texas St. 65 52%   
Fri, Feb 27 272 Georgia Southern 80 173 Marshall 89 79%   
Fri, Feb 27 293 Georgia St. 73 241 Old Dominion 74 51%   
Fri, Feb 27 147 Arkansas St. 78 297 Louisiana 67 86%   
Fri, Feb 27 150 Troy 86 354 Louisiana Monroe 68 94%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 4.2 0.1 2.9 19.0 39.5 29.5 6.8 2.3
Troy 1.1 95.6 1.0 2.0 1.4
Appalachian St. 2.2 52.6 3.2 18.1 26.2
Marshall 1.5 79.5 2.9 10.3 7.3
South Alabama 1.6 72.5 3.0 13.7 10.8
James Madison 6.9 4.7 34.5 27.3 33.5
Coastal Carolina 5.6 0.1 1.2 7.5 15.3 14.2 34.5 27.3
Texas St. 4.9 0.1 3.2 18.1 26.2 4.7 32.6 15.1
Southern Miss 8.9 9.8 90.2
Old Dominion 11.7 34.9 14.1 1.5 49.5
Georgia Southern 10.3 14.9 40.5 39.2 5.3
Georgia St. 9.8 35.9 48.5 14.1 1.5
Louisiana 10.5 10.1 38.4 42.7 8.7
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 18 - 11 13.7 86.3
Troy 12 - 6 18 - 11 4.5 95.5
Appalachian St. 12 - 6 18 - 11 47.5 52.5
Marshall 12 - 6 19 - 11 20.6 79.4
South Alabama 12 - 6 20 - 9 27.6 72.4
James Madison 10 - 8 17 - 13 33.5 66.5
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 17 - 13 66.5 33.5
Texas St. 10 - 8 16 - 13 52.5 47.5
Southern Miss 8 - 10 13 - 16 72.4 27.6
Old Dominion 7 - 11 10 - 20 49.5 50.5
Georgia Southern 7 - 11 13 - 16 79.4 20.6
Georgia St. 7 - 11 8 - 21 50.5 49.5
Louisiana 7 - 11 10 - 21 86.3 13.7
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 27 95.5 4.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 0.1% 0.1 0.1
Troy 95.6% 2.4 20.0 44.3 28.8 0.1 0.1
Appalachian St. 52.6% 0.2 3.9 19.6 28.8 0.1 0.1
Marshall 79.5% 0.5 11.8 38.4 28.8 0.1 0.1
South Alabama 72.5% 0.4 8.3 34.9 28.8 0.1 0.1
James Madison
Coastal Carolina 0.1% 0.1
Texas St. 0.1% 0.1 0.1
Southern Miss
Old Dominion
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.2 4.6 6.5 0.8 87.8 0.0%
Troy 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 14   0.7 13.4 8.9 0.4 76.6 0.0%
Appalachian St. 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 7.9 4.7 0.2 86.1 0.0%
Marshall 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0 2.5 12.6 6.2 0.1 78.6 0.0%
South Alabama 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 10.8 7.2 0.2 80.2 0.0%
James Madison 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 97.5 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 97.8 0.0%
Texas St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.4 2.1 1.0 96.6 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.3 99.2 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 99.9
2nd Round 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 12.2% 0.0% 12.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 23.4% 0.0% 23.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 13.9% 0.0% 13.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 21.4% 0.0% 21.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 19.8% 0.0% 19.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 3.5% 0.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%