Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
60 James Madison 38.3%   13   4 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +8.6      +4.4 66 +4.2 64 76.8 34 +3.9 118 0.0 1
94 Marshall 17.7%   6 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 6 +5.3      +2.9 91 +2.4 108 79.6 12 +3.6 123 0.0 1
109 Southern Miss 16.5%   5 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 12 - 6 +4.1      +1.2 139 +2.9 91 63.8 307 +17.3 17 0.0 1
122 Louisiana 11.7%   4 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 9 11 - 7 +3.4      0.0 172 +3.4 76 73.2 78 +10.9 50 0.0 1
147 Old Dominion 5.8%   3 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +1.4      0.0 173 +1.4 134 63.5 313 +0.5 170 0.0 1
148 South Alabama 5.7%   2 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 +1.3      -0.2 178 +1.6 130 67.0 228 -2.1 213 0.0 1
156 Troy 5.2%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 +0.9      +0.8 149 0.0 182 68.1 203 +2.5 138 0.0 1
167 Texas St. 3.7%   3 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 0.0      -0.5 187 +0.5 166 62.3 336 +1.3 159 0.0 1
204 Appalachian St. 2.0%   4 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -1.8      -2.9 264 +1.1 145 66.6 234 -1.8 209 0.0 1
205 Georgia St. 2.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 10 -1.8      -2.6 253 +0.8 154 64.8 277 -4.2 241 0.0 1
240 Coastal Carolina 1.0%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -3.9      -2.3 235 -1.6 226 67.2 223 -10.1 308 0.0 1
272 Arkansas St. 0.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 17 6 - 12 -5.6      -5.4 326 -0.2 186 64.1 295 -11.7 323 0.0 1
292 Georgia Southern 0.2%   2 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -7.0      -4.6 308 -2.4 246 65.8 255 -6.2 269 0.0 1
316 Louisiana Monroe 0.1%   0 - 6 0 - 0 5 - 23 4 - 14 -9.2      -4.9 317 -4.2 293 69.9 147 -15.3 344 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 2.3 48.9 20.8 11.4 7.3 4.6 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 3.5 23.0 20.6 16.7 12.1 9.0 6.4 4.6 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 4.3 16.3 17.0 14.7 12.4 10.3 8.4 6.8 5.1 3.6 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
Louisiana 4.6 13.4 15.5 14.1 13.1 11.3 8.9 7.2 5.5 4.4 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2
Old Dominion 6.3 5.2 7.3 9.1 10.8 11.0 11.2 10.6 9.5 8.1 6.7 5.0 3.3 1.6 0.5
South Alabama 5.6 7.2 10.2 11.9 12.0 11.8 10.4 9.4 8.2 6.5 5.0 3.6 2.2 1.1 0.5
Troy 6.4 5.2 7.4 9.1 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.3 9.5 8.1 7.2 5.6 3.7 1.9 1.0
Texas St. 6.8 3.6 6.1 7.8 9.3 9.8 10.7 10.8 10.5 9.5 7.9 6.1 4.1 2.6 1.2
Appalachian St. 8.0 1.5 2.9 4.5 6.1 7.7 9.2 10.5 11.7 10.9 11.2 9.4 7.4 4.8 2.2
Georgia St. 8.2 1.6 2.8 4.1 5.7 7.3 8.9 10.0 10.5 11.2 11.1 10.2 7.9 5.8 2.7
Coastal Carolina 9.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.7 6.0 7.5 8.8 9.8 11.7 12.3 12.7 10.7 7.5
Arkansas St. 10.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.3 5.4 7.2 9.4 11.4 13.5 15.2 13.8 11.4
Georgia Southern 11.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.9 6.9 9.8 13.4 17.5 21.4 17.8
Louisiana Monroe 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.2 7.0 10.1 15.6 23.3 33.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.1 6.8 10.1 13.9 17.4 17.5 14.6 8.6 3.2
Marshall 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.9 9.2 12.5 14.6 16.1 14.7 11.0 6.3 2.7 0.6
Southern Miss 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.5 6.1 8.5 11.8 13.3 14.2 13.7 11.4 8.1 4.2 1.8 0.4
Louisiana 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 6.5 9.4 11.9 14.5 14.3 12.8 10.2 6.5 3.6 1.3 0.3
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.0 8.9 11.7 14.0 14.0 12.8 11.0 7.2 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1
South Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.5 6.9 9.9 12.3 13.5 13.8 12.7 10.0 6.5 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
Troy 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.5 9.1 11.7 13.2 13.7 12.0 10.1 7.3 4.5 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.6 10.8 12.9 13.7 13.4 11.9 8.7 6.0 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Appalachian St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 4.8 7.8 11.3 13.7 14.4 13.5 11.5 8.3 5.5 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Georgia St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 5.6 8.9 11.4 13.3 14.0 13.2 10.7 7.8 5.1 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.4 1.6 3.7 6.5 9.7 12.5 13.6 13.1 11.7 9.8 6.9 4.9 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas St. 6 - 12 0.6 2.4 5.9 9.5 12.2 14.2 14.0 12.4 10.3 7.5 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 5 - 13 1.1 4.4 9.3 14.1 16.6 15.9 13.7 10.0 6.7 4.2 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 4 - 14 3.2 9.5 14.8 17.8 16.6 14.1 10.2 6.6 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
James Madison 48.9% 35.2 10.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Marshall 23.0% 13.7 6.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 16.3% 9.3 5.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 13.4% 7.3 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 5.2% 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 7.2% 3.7 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Troy 5.2% 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Texas St. 3.6% 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 1.5% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 1.6% 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
James Madison 38.3% 34.8% 3.4% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.2 2.3 7.2 12.0 9.3 3.4 0.6 0.1 61.7 5.2%
Marshall 17.7% 16.4% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.1 4.9 5.8 3.0 0.7 0.1 82.3 1.6%
Southern Miss 16.5% 12.6% 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 3.5 5.4 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 83.5 4.5%
Louisiana 11.7% 10.3% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.5 3.4 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.2 88.3 1.6%
Old Dominion 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.8 94.2 0.1%
South Alabama 5.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.1 94.3 0.0%
Troy 5.2% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.6 94.8 0.1%
Texas St. 3.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.7 96.3 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 98.0 0.0%
Georgia St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 98.0 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.0 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
James Madison 38.3% 1.8% 37.4% 12.0% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Marshall 17.7% 0.9% 17.2% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 16.5% 2.4% 15.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 11.7% 1.1% 11.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.8% 0.7% 5.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 5.7% 0.8% 5.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 5.2% 0.5% 5.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 3.7% 0.5% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 2.0% 0.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 2.0% 0.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 89.8 9.9 0.3
1st Round 98.4% 1.1 1.6 91.6 6.7 0.1
2nd Round 22.9% 0.2 77.1 22.4 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.7% 0.1 93.3 6.7 0.0
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0