Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
145 Arkansas St. 14.5%   18 - 11 11 - 7 +1.0      +1.1 135 -0.2 175 78.5 9 +0.4 152 -2.1 7
151 Troy 34.2%   14   18 - 11 12 - 6 +0.5      +0.8 145 -0.3 180 64.7 279 +1.3 142 -0.4 1
170 Appalachian St. 9.2%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -0.9      -2.1 230 +1.2 138 60.1 358 -1.3 182 -1.7 6
185 South Alabama 4.0%   19 - 10 11 - 7 -1.7      -1.9 217 +0.1 165 63.0 327 +0.4 151 -1.3 4
186 Marshall 23.1%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -1.8      +2.6 108 -4.3 304 72.2 83 -0.2 161 -1.1 3
202 James Madison 2.0%   16 - 14 9 - 9 -2.4      -0.4 172 -2.1 235 64.2 295 -2.3 204 -3.6 8
226 Southern Miss 1.2%   14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.6      -4.1 279 +0.5 158 71.3 102 -3.0 217 -4.0 9
228 Coastal Carolina 5.3%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -3.7      -4.6 293 +0.9 142 67.7 205 -0.7 172 -1.6 5
234 Texas St. 6.0%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -4.0      -3.6 263 -0.4 183 65.9 250 -2.4 206 -1.0 2
240 Old Dominion 0.0%   10 - 20 7 - 11 -4.3      -2.2 233 -2.1 239 71.7 97 -6.4 267 -6.7 13
261 Georgia Southern 0.5%   14 - 15 8 - 10 -5.5      -1.2 200 -4.4 305 75.2 28 -4.6 241 -5.1 10
296 Georgia St. 0.0%   8 - 21 7 - 11 -8.1      -6.2 328 -1.8 229 69.5 147 -8.5 300 -6.1 11
301 Louisiana 0.0%   10 - 21 7 - 11 -8.2      -5.9 320 -2.3 243 60.2 357 -8.2 297 -6.6 12
353 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 27 1 - 17 -14.5      -5.8 318 -8.7 358 74.2 41 -20.6 362 -19.5 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 24 145 Arkansas St. 89 226 Southern Miss 84   
Tue, Feb 24 228 Coastal Carolina 76 296 Georgia St. 71   
Tue, Feb 24 186 Marshall 97 240 Old Dominion 88   
Tue, Feb 24 301 Louisiana 59 151 Troy 78   
Wed, Feb 25 261 Georgia Southern 66 202 James Madison 82   
Wed, Feb 25 185 South Alabama 89 353 Louisiana Monroe 54   
Fri, Feb 27 228 Coastal Carolina 69 202 James Madison 68   
Fri, Feb 27 170 Appalachian St. 57 234 Texas St. 60   
Fri, Feb 27 261 Georgia Southern 99 186 Marshall 82   
Fri, Feb 27 296 Georgia St. 73 240 Old Dominion 81   
Fri, Feb 27 185 South Alabama 55 226 Southern Miss 68   
Fri, Feb 27 151 Troy 80 353 Louisiana Monroe 65   
Fri, Feb 27 145 Arkansas St. 81 301 Louisiana 58   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 2.0 100.0
Troy 1.0 100.0
Appalachian St. 2.0 100.0
South Alabama 2.0 100.0
Marshall 2.0 100.0
James Madison 8.0 100.0
Southern Miss 8.0 100.0
Coastal Carolina 2.0 100.0
Texas St. 2.0 100.0
Old Dominion 11.0 100.0
Georgia Southern 10.0 100.0
Georgia St. 11.0 100.0
Louisiana 11.0 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 18 - 11 100.0
Troy 12 - 6 18 - 11 100.0
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
South Alabama 11 - 7 19 - 10 100.0
Marshall 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
James Madison 9 - 9 16 - 14 100.0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 14 - 15 100.0
Coastal Carolina 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
Texas St. 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Old Dominion 7 - 11 10 - 20 100.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 14 - 15 100.0
Georgia St. 7 - 11 8 - 21 100.0
Louisiana 7 - 11 10 - 21 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 27 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St.
Troy 100.0% 100.0
Appalachian St.
South Alabama
Marshall
James Madison
Southern Miss
Coastal Carolina
Texas St.
Old Dominion
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.3 5.0 8.3 0.9 0.0 85.5 0.0%
Troy 34.2% 34.2% 0.0% 14   0.3 15.8 16.8 1.4 65.8 0.0%
Appalachian St. 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 5.5 2.7 0.1 90.8 0.0%
South Alabama 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.0 96.0 0.0%
Marshall 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 10.6 11.2 0.5 76.9 0.0%
James Madison 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 98.0 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2 0.9 0.1 98.8 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 3.5 0.4 94.7 0.0%
Texas St. 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.6 3.7 1.6 94.0 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 99.9
2nd Round 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 14.5% 0.0% 14.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 34.2% 0.0% 34.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 9.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 23.1% 0.0% 23.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.0% 0.2% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%