Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
114 James Madison 23.4%   13   4 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +3.3      +2.5 108 +0.8 146 70.7 140 +0.9 158 0.0 1
125 Troy 16.2%   5 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +2.1      +0.8 151 +1.3 129 70.8 133 +0.8 160 0.0 1
130 Arkansas St. 14.7%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.6      -0.4 186 +2.0 107 71.1 123 +1.6 147 0.0 1
138 Texas St. 14.9%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +1.4      -0.2 178 +1.5 121 66.3 258 +3.6 117 0.0 1
163 Appalachian St. 9.0%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 -0.5      -1.7 214 +1.2 131 62.6 334 +0.7 163 0.0 1
195 Marshall 6.5%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.5      -0.7 193 -0.8 195 74.6 51 -2.9 212 0.0 1
206 South Alabama 5.2%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 -2.1      -1.8 217 -0.3 181 63.8 314 -4.2 233 0.0 1
230 Georgia St. 2.9%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3.8      -1.5 213 -2.3 252 69.9 159 -4.4 238 0.0 1
235 Georgia Southern 2.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -4.0      -3.1 256 -0.9 198 80.2 9 -1.0 183 0.0 1
250 Southern Miss 2.0%   3 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -4.7      -3.4 267 -1.3 212 74.9 47 -2.9 213 0.0 1
262 Louisiana 1.3%   0 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 11 -5.8      -0.3 181 -5.5 335 70.4 145 -14.7 350 0.0 1
272 Coastal Carolina 1.1%   4 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -6.0      -4.6 303 -1.4 216 61.2 349 -6.0 266 0.0 1
317 Old Dominion 0.2%   2 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -8.8      -4.6 301 -4.2 307 73.3 68 -11.3 329 0.0 1
332 Louisiana Monroe 0.1%   1 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -9.8      -6.1 334 -3.6 295 67.6 223 -12.5 339 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 2.9 36.5 20.3 12.9 9.5 6.8 4.8 3.2 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Troy 4.1 18.9 16.8 14.4 12.1 9.8 8.3 6.3 4.7 3.4 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1
Arkansas St. 4.0 20.0 17.3 14.6 12.0 9.6 7.7 6.0 4.5 3.2 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
Texas St. 4.2 19.3 16.3 13.7 11.3 9.8 8.1 6.2 5.0 3.9 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2
Appalachian St. 5.2 12.0 12.2 12.0 11.7 10.6 9.5 8.4 6.7 5.3 4.3 3.1 2.2 1.3 0.6
Marshall 6.2 7.7 8.7 9.1 9.8 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.4 7.5 6.4 5.3 4.2 2.6 1.1
South Alabama 6.5 5.9 7.4 8.5 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.9 9.0 8.1 7.3 6.0 4.4 2.6 1.5
Georgia St. 7.6 2.7 4.6 5.9 7.6 8.6 9.7 9.7 10.3 9.6 9.5 8.0 6.8 4.8 2.4
Georgia Southern 7.7 2.6 4.1 5.4 7.2 8.5 9.3 9.9 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.4 7.1 4.9 2.6
Southern Miss 8.5 1.5 2.9 4.1 5.4 6.1 8.0 8.5 10.0 10.4 11.0 10.3 9.8 7.2 4.7
Louisiana 9.2 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.2 5.3 6.6 7.7 9.0 9.8 11.2 11.6 11.4 10.1 7.0
Coastal Carolina 9.2 0.9 1.7 2.8 3.9 5.1 6.5 8.0 8.9 10.2 11.5 12.3 12.0 10.0 6.3
Old Dominion 11.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.8 4.0 5.1 6.9 9.0 11.8 14.9 19.8 21.0
Louisiana Monroe 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.5 5.1 7.5 10.5 15.0 21.4 30.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.8 7.6 10.9 13.3 15.6 15.3 13.2 8.9 4.3 1.2
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.8 9.3 11.5 14.1 15.0 14.1 11.1 7.2 3.8 1.5 0.3
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.2 5.6 8.7 11.5 13.8 15.1 14.1 11.6 7.8 4.0 1.5 0.3
Texas St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 4.2 6.5 8.8 12.1 13.1 14.6 13.2 11.0 7.3 3.9 1.5 0.3
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.2 8.8 11.6 13.4 13.9 13.0 10.5 7.9 4.3 2.2 0.7 0.1
Marshall 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.1 8.9 11.6 13.1 13.3 12.1 10.3 7.6 5.1 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1
South Alabama 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 4.4 7.0 10.1 12.3 13.6 13.6 11.6 9.6 6.8 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Georgia St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.9 9.7 12.6 13.9 14.2 12.2 9.7 6.8 4.1 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.2 7.2 10.1 13.0 14.3 13.8 12.3 9.3 6.2 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1
Southern Miss 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.4 6.9 9.4 12.5 14.1 13.8 12.5 9.7 7.1 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 7 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.0 8.8 11.5 13.3 14.2 13.3 10.9 8.0 5.6 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.9 8.4 12.0 14.2 14.5 13.5 11.1 7.8 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 5 - 13 1.1 4.2 8.0 12.6 14.8 15.3 14.0 11.2 7.8 5.3 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 5 - 13 1.8 6.1 11.6 15.8 16.6 15.4 12.3 8.4 5.5 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
James Madison 36.5% 24.6 8.9 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 18.9% 11.4 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 20.0% 11.8 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 19.3% 11.4 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 12.0% 6.5 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 7.7% 4.1 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 5.9% 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 2.7% 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 2.6% 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
James Madison 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 6.6 9.0 5.1 1.5 0.1 76.6 0.0%
Troy 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 5.9 4.9 1.9 0.2 83.8 0.0%
Arkansas St. 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.3 4.6 1.8 0.2 85.3 0.0%
Texas St. 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.7 4.1 1.5 0.2 85.1 0.0%
Appalachian St. 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.2 1.9 0.3 91.0 0.0%
Marshall 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 2.0 0.6 93.5 0.0%
South Alabama 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.7 0.6 94.8 0.0%
Georgia St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 97.1 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 97.5 0.0%
Southern Miss 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 98.0 0.0%
Louisiana 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 98.7 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 98.9 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
James Madison 23.4% 0.0% 23.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 16.2% 0.1% 16.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 14.7% 0.0% 14.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 14.9% 0.0% 14.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 9.0% 0.1% 9.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 6.5% 0.2% 6.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 5.2% 0.1% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 2.9% 0.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 2.0% 0.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 1.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9 0.0
2nd Round 10.0% 0.1 90.0 10.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0