Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
144 Georgia St. 20.0%   15   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 11 12 - 6 +1.8      +3.1 92 -1.3 223 73.6 82 +3.9 124 0.0 1
156 Texas St. 15.4%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 7 +0.8      +0.8 152 0.0 173 60.4 345 +4.7 114 0.0 1
158 South Alabama 15.6%   2 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +0.6      -0.6 193 +1.3 125 68.7 202 +7.2 83 0.0 1
174 Appalachian St. 10.2%   2 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -0.4      -0.8 199 +0.3 159 62.5 328 -2.9 219 0.0 1
178 Georgia Southern 11.0%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 -0.7      -2.2 244 +1.6 116 66.1 258 +3.2 131 0.0 1
185 Louisiana 10.3%   1 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -1.1      -2.1 236 +0.9 143 80.8 10 -5.8 255 0.0 1
225 Coastal Carolina 5.9%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 14 9 - 9 -2.9      -2.0 234 -0.9 205 73.9 75 -4.5 241 0.0 1
238 Troy 3.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -3.9      -4.4 294 +0.5 153 69.6 172 -0.3 180 0.0 1
245 Arkansas St. 3.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 14 8 - 10 -4.5      -2.0 233 -2.5 257 68.4 210 -3.2 224 0.0 1
263 Texas Arlington 1.7%   0 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 20 7 - 11 -5.4      -4.6 297 -0.8 201 71.5 116 -7.9 289 0.0 1
275 Louisiana Monroe 2.2%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -6.2      -3.3 276 -2.9 271 75.0 57 -4.3 236 0.0 1
282 Arkansas Little Rock 1.4%   2 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -6.8      -4.9 301 -1.9 240 73.9 77 -3.0 220 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Georgia St. 3.6 27.7 18.1 13.5 10.3 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.6 3.0 2.4 1.1 0.6
Texas St. 3.8 23.7 18.3 13.0 11.0 9.1 6.8 5.8 4.1 3.4 2.2 1.8 0.8
South Alabama 4.5 18.7 14.3 12.2 11.5 9.5 8.7 6.8 5.5 5.2 4.0 2.6 1.1
Appalachian St. 4.8 12.6 14.3 12.3 11.8 10.8 9.9 8.0 6.6 5.3 4.7 2.5 1.4
Georgia Southern 5.1 12.7 13.0 12.1 10.1 10.4 9.0 8.7 7.2 5.5 5.5 3.8 2.0
Louisiana 5.1 12.7 12.4 11.6 11.5 10.6 8.6 8.6 7.0 6.2 5.2 3.4 2.2
Coastal Carolina 6.5 6.2 6.6 8.8 10.0 9.3 9.6 8.5 9.5 10.1 8.2 7.6 5.6
Troy 7.5 3.3 4.1 5.3 5.9 8.3 9.8 10.4 11.1 10.6 11.4 11.0 8.9
Arkansas St. 7.1 5.4 5.5 6.4 7.7 8.6 8.5 9.2 9.8 10.2 9.7 9.8 9.3
Texas Arlington 7.9 1.7 3.4 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.5 9.9 10.4 11.3 13.7 11.4 11.3
Louisiana Monroe 8.4 1.9 2.7 3.9 4.9 5.2 7.4 9.1 9.8 11.3 13.6 14.2 16.0
Arkansas Little Rock 8.8 1.1 2.2 2.9 3.7 5.2 7.1 8.0 9.9 11.2 12.6 16.0 20.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Georgia St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 2.4 4.0 5.7 8.7 10.4 12.8 13.4 13.1 11.7 8.0 4.8 2.2 0.6
Texas St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.4 4.9 6.3 9.6 11.1 12.7 13.1 13.1 9.9 7.8 3.8 1.9 0.5
South Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.4 4.5 6.7 8.3 10.7 12.5 11.9 12.6 10.1 8.0 5.7 3.3 0.9 0.2
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 2.7 5.4 6.6 10.1 12.2 13.1 13.5 11.4 9.0 6.8 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.1
Georgia Southern 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 2.4 3.9 5.2 8.1 10.1 12.0 12.2 12.3 10.8 9.2 5.9 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.1
Louisiana 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.1 8.2 9.7 11.7 12.6 13.3 10.9 8.6 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.2
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.2 7.4 8.7 11.3 12.6 11.3 12.6 9.3 7.2 4.9 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Troy 8 - 10 0.1 0.9 2.3 4.6 7.6 9.7 11.1 12.9 13.7 12.2 9.4 6.1 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Arkansas St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.9 5.3 6.1 8.7 10.8 11.3 12.6 10.9 10.0 7.6 6.1 3.7 2.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 7 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.8 5.8 8.3 10.7 14.2 13.1 12.3 10.3 8.7 5.9 3.7 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 7 - 11 0.4 1.8 4.1 8.1 9.6 12.8 13.0 12.5 11.2 9.5 6.2 5.0 3.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 6 - 12 0.6 2.4 5.1 8.8 12.1 12.8 12.6 12.7 10.6 8.9 5.6 3.3 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Georgia St. 27.7% 18.2 6.9 2.3 0.3 0.1
Texas St. 23.7% 15.1 6.4 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 18.7% 12.1 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 12.6% 7.1 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 12.7% 7.6 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 12.7% 7.6 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.1
Coastal Carolina 6.2% 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
Troy 3.3% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Arkansas St. 5.4% 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
Texas Arlington 1.7% 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 1.9% 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Georgia St. 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.8 4.3 6.4 5.5 1.6 80.0 0.0%
Texas St. 15.4% 15.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 5.1 5.2 1.6 84.6 0.1%
South Alabama 15.6% 15.6% 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.3 4.8 4.7 1.3 84.4 0.1%
Appalachian St. 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 3.4 1.9 89.8 0.0%
Georgia Southern 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.5 3.9 1.4 89.0 0.0%
Louisiana 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.8 3.0 89.7 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.6 1.8 94.1 0.0%
Troy 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 1.5 1.2 97.0 0.0%
Arkansas St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 96.6 0.0%
Texas Arlington 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 98.3 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.1 97.8 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 98.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Georgia St. 20.0% 0.4% 19.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 15.4% 0.4% 15.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 15.6% 0.3% 15.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 10.2% 0.9% 9.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 11.0% 0.5% 10.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 10.3% 1.1% 9.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.9% 1.0% 5.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 3.0% 0.6% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 3.4% 0.5% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 1.7% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.2% 0.6% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 97.1% 1.0 2.9 97.0 0.1
2nd Round 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.9
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0