Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
141 Troy 33.6%   14   13 - 8 8 - 3 +1.2      +1.1 133 +0.1 156 66.4 246 +1.7 134 +1.2 1
153 Marshall 17.6%   13 - 8 6 - 4 +0.1      +0.3 154 -0.1 166 71.7 99 +0.7 149 -1.4 4
168 Arkansas St. 9.8%   11 - 10 5 - 6 -0.7      +0.4 148 -1.2 216 76.9 23 -0.4 170 -4.0 9
173 Appalachian St. 17.0%   13 - 9 8 - 4 -1.0      -2.7 246 +1.7 122 60.1 361 -0.6 173 -0.4 2
196 South Alabama 11.3%   14 - 6 7 - 3 -2.4      -3.0 253 +0.7 143 63.0 328 +1.2 143 -0.4 3
205 James Madison 2.3%   10 - 12 4 - 7 -2.7      +0.5 147 -3.2 276 64.7 289 -3.0 212 -5.0 10
238 Coastal Carolina 3.4%   13 - 10 7 - 5 -4.4      -3.7 270 -0.7 193 68.1 203 -1.2 189 -2.7 6
243 Old Dominion 0.6%   6 - 16 4 - 7 -4.7      -3.2 260 -1.5 233 71.1 116 -6.5 270 -5.8 12
251 Southern Miss 0.9%   10 - 12 6 - 6 -5.1      -4.7 295 -0.5 182 71.0 121 -4.2 231 -5.8 11
259 Texas St. 1.0%   11 - 11 6 - 6 -5.6      -4.8 299 -0.8 201 67.1 228 -4.8 239 -4.0 8
260 Georgia Southern 1.2%   12 - 10 6 - 5 -5.6      -1.2 200 -4.4 305 74.6 43 -3.7 225 -3.9 7
269 Georgia St. 1.3%   7 - 14 6 - 5 -6.1      -4.6 290 -1.5 236 70.7 129 -5.6 254 -2.0 5
302 Louisiana 0.1%   7 - 16 5 - 6 -8.2      -6.3 330 -1.9 244 60.0 362 -9.4 317 -6.9 13
360 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 20 0 - 11 -15.1      -7.6 348 -7.5 354 74.8 40 -25.1 364 -22.6 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Jan 30 260 Georgia Southern 79 360 Louisiana Monroe 76   
Sat, Jan 31 168 Arkansas St. 61 153 Marshall 70   
Sat, Jan 31 269 Georgia St. 67 196 South Alabama 69   
Sat, Jan 31 205 James Madison 65 251 Southern Miss 73   
Sat, Jan 31 173 Appalachian St. 66 141 Troy 44   
Sat, Jan 31 260 Georgia Southern 60 302 Louisiana 69   
Sat, Jan 31 243 Old Dominion 64 259 Texas St. 81   
Sun, Feb 1 238 Coastal Carolina 83 360 Louisiana Monroe 79   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 4 173 Appalachian St. 65 196 South Alabama 61 66%   
Wed, Feb 4 260 Georgia Southern 77 259 Texas St. 74 61%   
Wed, Feb 4 168 Arkansas St. 78 238 Coastal Carolina 77 53%   
Wed, Feb 4 153 Marshall 79 251 Southern Miss 71 78%   
Wed, Feb 4 269 Georgia St. 71 141 Troy 75 66%   
Wed, Feb 4 205 James Madison 71 302 Louisiana 63 79%   
Wed, Feb 4 243 Old Dominion 84 360 Louisiana Monroe 71 89%   
Sat, Feb 7 168 Arkansas St. 80 151 Bowling Green 78 57%   
Sat, Feb 7 203 Buffalo 70 196 South Alabama 73 62%   
Sat, Feb 7 61 Akron 82 141 Troy 77 68%   
Sat, Feb 7 153 Marshall 80 90 Miami (OH) 83 62%   
Sat, Feb 7 205 James Madison 78 159 Toledo 77 52%   
Sat, Feb 7 197 Ohio 77 243 Old Dominion 78 53%   
Sat, Feb 7 173 Appalachian St. 68 236 Eastern Michigan 61 73%   
Sat, Feb 7 238 Coastal Carolina 74 172 Massachusetts 75 52%   
Sat, Feb 7 259 Texas St. 75 273 Western Michigan 71 64%   
Sat, Feb 7 146 Kent St. 79 251 Southern Miss 76 62%   
Sat, Feb 7 293 Central Michigan 65 302 Louisiana 67 59%   
Sat, Feb 7 269 Georgia St. 75 308 Northern Illinois 70 71%   
Sat, Feb 7 296 Ball St. 74 360 Louisiana Monroe 70 65%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 1.4 75.8 16.4 5.0 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1
Marshall 3.5 15.5 25.3 19.4 13.8 9.7 5.5 4.4 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1
Arkansas St. 4.8 1.8 10.9 18.8 20.1 17.4 11.9 7.7 4.4 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3
Appalachian St. 2.9 19.6 31.7 20.4 12.2 7.1 3.8 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 3.3 18.9 22.0 20.1 14.8 10.3 5.6 3.7 2.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
James Madison 8.3 0.1 0.7 2.7 5.6 8.9 10.0 12.5 11.5 12.0 10.8 10.2 8.8 6.1
Coastal Carolina 5.8 2.0 7.2 11.4 14.5 14.9 12.9 12.2 9.0 7.2 5.0 2.4 1.2 0.3
Old Dominion 9.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 4.2 6.1 9.0 10.3 12.2 13.1 13.7 14.6 13.5
Southern Miss 8.7 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.9 5.5 7.5 10.9 12.6 14.4 14.4 12.9 10.5 4.4
Texas St. 7.5 0.4 1.8 3.8 6.9 9.7 11.5 15.0 14.6 13.0 10.2 7.0 4.5 1.6
Georgia Southern 8.0 0.5 2.4 4.2 6.0 8.0 9.4 12.1 11.8 12.5 11.3 10.6 8.2 3.1
Georgia St. 7.0 1.2 3.2 6.6 10.2 12.5 12.5 12.8 10.6 9.0 8.0 6.4 4.9 2.3
Louisiana 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.6 5.5 8.6 10.5 14.3 19.5 31.0
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 13 - 5 18 - 11 0.0 0.1 1.3 7.1 18.2 31.8 29.2 12.3
Marshall 11 - 7 19 - 11 0.1 0.5 2.8 9.0 18.3 26.0 24.7 14.3 4.2
Arkansas St. 10 - 8 17 - 12 0.1 1.4 6.0 16.1 31.1 31.2 14.2
Appalachian St. 12 - 6 17 - 12 0.8 5.0 14.5 25.9 30.0 18.3 5.5
South Alabama 11 - 7 19 - 10 0.1 1.9 8.1 19.2 27.3 24.4 13.5 4.9 0.7
James Madison 8 - 10 15 - 15 0.2 1.4 6.6 16.6 25.7 27.7 17.0 4.9
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 16 - 14 3.2 14.1 25.3 28.8 19.2 8.0 1.4
Old Dominion 8 - 10 10 - 20 0.3 3.3 12.3 25.7 28.7 20.4 8.2 1.2
Southern Miss 8 - 10 13 - 16 6.5 21.9 31.3 25.3 11.6 3.1 0.4
Texas St. 9 - 9 14 - 15 1.5 11.6 26.8 30.9 20.7 7.4 1.1
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 15 - 14 4.8 17.1 27.2 25.8 16.6 6.8 1.5 0.2
Georgia St. 9 - 9 11 - 18 2.4 9.7 20.6 26.9 23.2 12.9 3.7 0.6
Louisiana 7 - 11 10 - 21 9.1 25.2 30.9 21.8 9.8 2.7 0.6 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 27 52.9 33.2 11.2 2.2 0.4 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 75.8% 52.0 17.9 4.8 1.0 0.2 0.1
Marshall 15.5% 5.4 6.5 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.1
Arkansas St. 1.8% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1
Appalachian St. 19.6% 6.6 8.7 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
South Alabama 18.9% 7.9 6.9 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
James Madison 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 2.0% 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 1.2% 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 33.6% 33.6% 0.0% 14   0.1 2.7 14.0 14.2 2.6 0.1 66.4 0.0%
Marshall 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.7 5.6 8.7 2.5 0.0 82.4 0.0%
Arkansas St. 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.3 2.0 4.5 2.8 0.2 90.2 0.0%
Appalachian St. 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.1 2.0 7.5 7.0 0.6 83.0 0.0%
South Alabama 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.7 4.0 5.8 0.9 88.7 0.0%
James Madison 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.2 97.7 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.4 96.6 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Texas St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.4 99.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 0.5 98.8 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 98.7 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.7 99.4
2nd Round 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 33.6% 0.0% 33.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 17.6% 0.0% 17.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 9.8% 0.0% 9.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 17.0% 0.1% 17.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 11.3% 0.1% 11.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 2.3% 0.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 3.4% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%