Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
149 Arkansas St. 0.0%   18 - 12 11 - 7 +0.6      +0.7 140 -0.1 177 77.9 10 -0.3 162 -2.2 7
155 Troy 36.2%   14   18 - 11 12 - 6 +0.3      +0.5 147 -0.2 180 64.7 281 +1.1 142 -0.6 1
177 Appalachian St. 15.4%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -1.0      -2.4 238 +1.4 136 60.1 360 -1.5 186 -1.8 6
190 Marshall 26.9%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -1.8      +2.4 109 -4.2 296 72.3 77 -0.3 161 -1.2 3
203 South Alabama 0.0%   19 - 11 11 - 7 -2.3      -1.6 212 -0.7 201 63.0 325 -0.4 164 -1.4 4
207 James Madison 0.0%   17 - 15 9 - 9 -2.5      -0.2 171 -2.3 244 65.1 270 -2.6 209 -3.7 8
218 Southern Miss 6.9%   16 - 15 9 - 9 -3.4      -3.6 263 +0.2 165 71.6 97 -2.5 206 -4.2 9
227 Coastal Carolina 8.3%   18 - 12 11 - 7 -3.8      -5.0 301 +1.2 137 67.8 197 -0.8 173 -1.7 5
233 Texas St. 0.0%   17 - 13 11 - 7 -4.3      -3.6 265 -0.7 199 66.0 252 -3.0 216 -1.1 2
242 Georgia Southern 6.4%   17 - 15 8 - 10 -4.7      +0.3 159 -5.0 314 74.3 38 -3.3 225 -5.4 10
245 Old Dominion 0.0%   11 - 21 7 - 11 -4.8      -2.0 225 -2.9 260 71.2 105 -6.8 268 -6.7 13
299 Louisiana 0.0%   11 - 22 7 - 11 -8.4      -5.8 315 -2.6 254 60.9 352 -8.1 295 -6.7 12
302 Georgia St. 0.0%   8 - 22 7 - 11 -8.6      -6.3 325 -2.3 247 69.7 139 -9.1 310 -6.2 11
353 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 28 1 - 17 -14.5      -5.6 314 -8.9 361 74.1 43 -20.7 363 -19.7 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Mar 3 302 Georgia St. 75 299 Louisiana 84   
Tue, Mar 3 245 Old Dominion 87 353 Louisiana Monroe 80   
Wed, Mar 4 242 Georgia Southern 88 245 Old Dominion 84   
Wed, Mar 4 207 James Madison 87 299 Louisiana 72   
Thu, Mar 5 149 Arkansas St. 77 242 Georgia Southern 80   
Thu, Mar 5 207 James Madison 80 218 Southern Miss 86   
Fri, Mar 6 218 Southern Miss 81 233 Texas St. 77   
Fri, Mar 6 242 Georgia Southern 94 203 South Alabama 85   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Mar 7 177 Appalachian St. 69 218 Southern Miss 66 59%   
Sat, Mar 7 227 Coastal Carolina 77 242 Georgia Southern 76 53%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 1.0 100.0
Texas St. 2.0 100.0
South Alabama 2.0 100.0
Coastal Carolina 2.0 100.0
Arkansas St. 2.0 100.0
Appalachian St. 2.0 100.0
Marshall 2.0 100.0
Southern Miss 8.0 100.0
James Madison 8.0 100.0
Georgia Southern 10.0 100.0
Louisiana 11.0 100.0
Old Dominion 11.0 100.0
Georgia St. 11.0 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 12 - 6 18 - 11 100.0
Texas St. 11 - 7 17 - 13 100.0
South Alabama 11 - 7 19 - 11 100.0
Coastal Carolina 11 - 7 19 - 12 100.0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
Appalachian St. 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
Marshall 11 - 7 18 - 12 100.0
Southern Miss 9 - 9 16 - 16 100.0
James Madison 9 - 9 17 - 15 100.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 17 - 16 100.0
Louisiana 7 - 11 11 - 22 100.0
Old Dominion 7 - 11 11 - 21 100.0
Georgia St. 7 - 11 8 - 22 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 28 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 100.0% 100.0
Texas St.
South Alabama
Coastal Carolina
Arkansas St.
Appalachian St.
Marshall
Southern Miss
James Madison
Georgia Southern
Louisiana
Old Dominion
Georgia St.
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Troy 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 14   0.6 14.9 18.8 2.0 0.0 63.8 0.0%
Appalachian St. 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 7.0 7.0 0.5 84.6 0.0%
Marshall 26.9% 26.9% 0.0% 0.7 9.3 15.0 1.9 73.1 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.3 4.3 2.3 93.1 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.1 2.2 5.1 0.9 91.7 0.0%
Texas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Southern 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 4.9 93.6 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.6% 1.0 1.4 98.6
2nd Round 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 36.2% 0.0% 36.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 15.4% 0.0% 15.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 26.9% 0.1% 26.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.9% 0.3% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 8.3% 0.1% 8.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 6.4% 2.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%