Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
138 Arkansas St. 23.4%   14   7 - 4 1 - 0 19 - 9 13 - 5 +1.3      +1.3 132 +0.1 164 78.9 17 +4.3 109 +12.8 1
143 Troy 21.0%   5 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1.1      +0.7 145 +0.4 152 68.7 205 +2.6 130 0.0 7
157 Marshall 15.2%   7 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +0.1      +0.5 151 -0.4 182 71.1 137 +3.3 123 0.0 7
185 South Alabama 9.3%   8 - 3 1 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 -1.8      -1.4 203 -0.4 181 63.7 319 +3.3 124 +4.4 4
195 James Madison 5.9%   6 - 5 0 - 1 16 - 13 10 - 8 -2.2      +1.4 129 -3.6 297 64.8 304 -1.0 183 -15.3 11
203 Southern Miss 6.4%   5 - 5 1 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.8      -1.9 223 -0.9 201 69.1 192 -1.6 190 +2.6 5
207 Appalachian St. 5.9%   6 - 5 1 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -3.0      -3.5 261 +0.5 148 60.0 365 -1.0 182 +6.7 3
209 Old Dominion 5.7%   3 - 8 1 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 8 -3.1      -1.3 200 -1.8 236 70.4 160 -4.9 243 +10.0 2
219 Georgia Southern 4.5%   7 - 5 1 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3.5      0.0 166 -3.5 295 75.1 46 -2.0 199 +0.7 6
257 Texas St. 1.3%   5 - 6 0 - 1 13 - 15 8 - 10 -5.4      -4.2 283 -1.2 210 65.5 286 -5.7 251 -16.9 13
259 Coastal Carolina 1.5%   5 - 6 0 - 1 13 - 16 8 - 10 -5.5      -5.4 316 -0.1 169 72.4 101 -2.8 212 -15.2 10
321 Louisiana 0.1%   1 - 11 0 - 1 7 - 23 6 - 12 -9.6      -8.8 358 -0.9 196 62.6 342 -15.9 349 -15.0 9
344 Georgia St. 0.0%   1 - 10 0 - 1 5 - 23 4 - 14 -11.5      -7.3 346 -4.2 315 71.8 118 -14.0 342 -15.7 12
355 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 9 0 - 1 4 - 24 3 - 15 -13.8      -6.8 340 -7.0 349 72.7 93 -21.3 364 -20.0 14




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 17 195 James Madison 68 209 Old Dominion 77   
Wed, Dec 17 138 Arkansas St. 89 257 Texas St. 70   
Wed, Dec 17 185 South Alabama 96 355 Louisiana Monroe 92   
Thu, Dec 18 207 Appalachian St. 67 259 Coastal Carolina 49   
Thu, Dec 18 321 Louisiana 54 203 Southern Miss 62   
Thu, Dec 18 219 Georgia Southern 90 344 Georgia St. 67   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 20 157 Marshall 73 143 Troy 77 65%   
Sat, Dec 20 219 Georgia Southern 79 195 James Madison 77 56%   
Sat, Dec 20 138 Arkansas St. 79 203 Southern Miss 78 54%   
Sat, Dec 20 259 Coastal Carolina 71 209 Old Dominion 76 70%   
Sat, Dec 20 185 South Alabama 68 257 Texas St. 67 53%   
Sat, Dec 20 207 Appalachian St. 72 344 Georgia St. 60 86%   
Sat, Dec 20 321 Louisiana 68 355 Louisiana Monroe 67 54%   
Mon, Dec 22 259 Coastal Carolina 67 170 Saint Joseph's 74 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 2.8 37.2 20.4 13.3 9.4 6.5 5.0 3.3 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 3.4 29.2 18.6 13.8 10.4 7.7 6.3 4.7 3.6 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Marshall 4.3 18.0 16.8 13.8 11.5 9.8 8.4 6.4 5.3 4.1 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
South Alabama 5.0 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.3 11.0 10.0 9.0 7.4 5.8 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
James Madison 6.5 4.6 7.3 8.5 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.4 10.2 9.6 8.0 6.0 3.4 1.4 0.2
Southern Miss 5.8 8.3 9.4 10.3 10.6 10.9 10.4 9.9 9.2 7.6 6.1 4.3 2.3 0.8 0.2
Appalachian St. 5.8 6.9 9.9 10.8 11.2 10.8 10.4 10.1 9.0 7.6 6.2 4.2 2.0 0.7 0.1
Old Dominion 5.8 6.8 9.1 10.7 11.1 10.7 10.8 10.0 9.5 8.1 6.0 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.1
Georgia Southern 6.4 5.8 7.4 8.7 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.1 9.6 9.2 8.1 6.3 3.4 1.2 0.3
Texas St. 8.8 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.1 5.3 7.0 8.4 10.4 12.2 13.9 14.0 11.2 5.5 2.1
Coastal Carolina 8.3 1.4 2.8 4.2 5.2 6.6 7.9 9.1 10.6 12.0 12.5 12.1 8.9 4.8 1.7
Louisiana 10.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.6 5.2 8.1 11.8 17.6 22.2 16.7 9.4
Georgia St. 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.3 3.8 6.2 10.8 18.4 30.5 24.9
Louisiana Monroe 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.9 7.7 15.5 28.0 41.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.0 7.4 10.9 14.6 17.1 16.7 13.2 8.3 3.7 0.7
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.5 6.5 9.1 12.4 15.2 15.8 14.4 10.6 6.0 2.6 0.6
Marshall 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.5 5.8 8.6 12.4 14.9 15.3 14.1 11.1 6.8 3.2 1.3 0.2
South Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 5.0 8.5 12.2 14.7 16.1 14.1 11.6 7.7 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1
James Madison 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.9 9.5 12.8 15.1 15.2 13.7 10.6 6.7 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
Southern Miss 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.5 7.2 10.7 13.7 15.2 14.8 12.2 9.0 5.2 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.2 7.4 10.6 14.2 15.1 15.0 12.8 8.7 5.2 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.1 7.5 11.2 14.4 15.7 14.8 12.6 8.4 5.0 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
Georgia Southern 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.4 6.2 9.3 12.4 14.3 15.0 13.6 10.2 6.9 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Texas St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.1 6.0 10.0 13.6 15.2 15.3 13.1 10.1 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Coastal Carolina 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.0 8.4 11.7 14.1 15.1 13.9 11.5 8.1 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
Louisiana 6 - 12 0.3 1.9 5.3 10.3 14.8 16.9 16.8 13.7 9.7 5.5 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 4 - 14 2.5 8.1 14.1 17.6 18.0 14.9 10.6 7.2 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 3 - 15 4.3 12.6 19.4 21.0 17.2 11.9 7.3 3.8 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 37.2% 24.4 9.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Troy 29.2% 18.8 7.4 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Marshall 18.0% 10.2 5.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 11.7% 6.2 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
James Madison 4.6% 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 8.3% 4.1 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 6.9% 3.3 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 6.8% 3.3 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 5.8% 2.7 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 1.4% 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 14   0.3 2.2 8.0 9.6 3.2 0.1 76.6 0.0%
Troy 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.8 9.3 6.1 1.3 0.1 79.0 0.0%
Marshall 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.0 6.5 2.5 0.1 84.8 0.0%
South Alabama 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 2.8 0.2 90.8 0.0%
James Madison 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.1 0.3 94.1 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.0 0.6 93.6 0.0%
Appalachian St. 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.7 0.5 94.1 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 1.7 94.3 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.6 95.5 0.0%
Texas St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 98.7 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 98.5 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 23.4% 0.0% 23.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 21.0% 0.0% 21.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 15.2% 0.0% 15.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 9.3% 0.0% 9.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.4% 0.1% 6.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 5.9% 0.1% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.7% 0.7% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.5% 0.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 99.4
2nd Round 5.0% 0.1 95.0 5.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0