Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
129 James Madison 18.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +2.0      +2.1 110 -0.1 169 63.3 303 0.0 1 0.0 1
130 Troy 18.9%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 12 - 6 +1.9      -0.3 171 +2.3 107 65.9 237 0.0 1 0.0 1
140 Arkansas St. 16.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 6 +1.2      +0.4 151 +0.8 138 73.5 53 0.0 1 0.0 1
163 South Alabama 10.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 -0.6      -1.8 225 +1.2 128 60.3 353 0.0 1 0.0 1
187 Marshall 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.9      -1.1 204 -0.8 193 70.6 108 0.0 1 0.0 1
193 Texas St. 6.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 8 -2.0      -1.0 199 -1.0 199 65.5 250 0.0 1 0.0 1
200 Old Dominion 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -2.3      -0.9 192 -1.5 218 65.6 248 0.0 1 0.0 1
201 Appalachian St. 6.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.3      -4.4 299 +2.1 110 60.1 355 0.0 1 0.0 1
234 Louisiana 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -4.1      -2.1 234 -2.0 238 65.8 242 0.0 1 0.0 1
249 Georgia Southern 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4.8      -1.5 218 -3.3 284 72.7 62 0.0 1 0.0 1
275 Coastal Carolina 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -6.2      -2.1 233 -4.1 303 60.4 352 0.0 1 0.0 1
281 Southern Miss 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -6.7      -4.0 288 -2.8 271 75.2 31 0.0 1 0.0 1
284 Georgia St. 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -7.0      -2.6 246 -4.4 310 71.8 76 0.0 1 0.0 1
348 Louisiana Monroe 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 21 4 - 14 -11.9      -6.7 350 -5.2 328 69.1 143 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 4.1 23.3 17.1 12.7 10.5 8.1 6.7 5.8 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.3
Troy 4.0 25.2 16.4 12.6 10.1 8.3 6.9 5.6 4.4 3.5 2.6 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.3
Arkansas St. 4.3 22.1 16.0 12.7 10.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 5.0 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.5
South Alabama 5.4 12.7 11.2 11.1 10.9 9.7 8.9 7.8 7.1 5.9 5.2 3.8 2.9 1.8 0.9
Marshall 6.3 8.3 8.8 9.7 9.4 9.3 9.3 8.4 7.9 7.5 6.7 5.9 4.5 3.1 1.5
Texas St. 6.5 7.8 8.4 9.2 8.9 8.9 9.2 8.7 8.4 7.5 7.1 5.8 4.9 3.5 1.7
Old Dominion 6.4 7.8 8.9 9.2 9.0 9.2 9.3 8.5 8.0 7.3 7.0 5.8 4.7 3.4 1.8
Appalachian St. 6.4 8.1 8.4 9.7 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.2 8.0 7.5 6.7 5.7 4.8 3.6 1.7
Louisiana 7.6 4.3 5.2 6.1 7.4 7.4 8.4 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.3 8.1 7.1 5.6 3.4
Georgia Southern 8.2 3.5 4.0 5.4 6.1 6.5 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.0 9.6 9.2 9.1 8.2 5.1
Coastal Carolina 8.9 2.1 3.0 4.1 5.2 5.6 6.7 7.2 8.2 9.0 10.1 10.2 10.5 10.5 7.6
Southern Miss 9.4 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.8 4.7 5.8 6.6 7.7 8.8 10.1 11.5 12.3 11.8 9.7
Georgia St. 9.5 1.4 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.5 7.4 8.5 9.8 10.9 12.3 13.0 10.4
Louisiana Monroe 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.5 4.6 6.7 9.2 13.5 20.8 34.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.5 3.7 5.6 7.5 9.2 11.1 12.4 12.5 11.8 9.7 6.6 3.6 1.1
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.3 3.5 5.5 7.2 9.2 10.9 12.5 12.5 11.9 9.6 6.9 3.9 1.4
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.0 6.2 7.8 9.7 11.5 12.2 12.1 11.3 8.9 6.5 3.2 1.0
South Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.1 4.4 7.1 8.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 11.7 9.7 8.2 5.3 3.0 1.3 0.3
Marshall 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.6 6.7 8.6 10.4 11.2 11.8 11.1 9.9 8.0 6.0 3.5 2.0 0.7 0.2
Texas St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.0 6.8 8.8 10.6 11.5 11.8 10.8 9.6 7.6 5.4 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.8 8.9 10.4 11.2 11.9 10.8 9.8 7.6 5.8 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.0 6.6 8.9 10.0 11.1 11.8 10.9 9.6 8.0 5.7 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.2
Louisiana 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.0 5.3 7.2 9.9 11.0 11.8 12.0 10.8 8.9 6.8 4.9 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.9 4.5 6.9 9.0 10.2 11.5 11.4 10.6 9.5 7.5 5.7 4.1 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 3.9 6.1 8.6 9.9 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.3 6.5 4.5 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 7 - 11 0.8 2.5 4.8 7.4 9.6 11.6 12.5 11.5 10.5 8.8 7.0 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 7 - 11 0.8 2.8 5.3 7.9 10.2 11.3 12.1 11.1 10.4 8.6 6.8 5.4 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 4 - 14 4.7 10.5 14.4 15.7 14.4 12.4 9.3 6.8 4.6 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
James Madison 23.3% 15.1 6.2 1.6 0.4 0.0
Troy 25.2% 16.7 6.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Arkansas St. 22.1% 14.1 6.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 12.7% 7.4 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Marshall 8.3% 4.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 7.8% 4.4 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 7.8% 4.3 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 8.1% 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 4.3% 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 3.5% 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 1.4% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
James Madison 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.4 5.6 5.3 3.2 1.1 0.2 82.0 0.1%
Troy 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.5 6.2 5.4 3.1 1.1 0.2 81.1 0.1%
Arkansas St. 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.1 4.7 2.8 0.9 0.3 84.0 0.0%
South Alabama 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 3.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 89.7 0.0%
Marshall 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.0 0.3 93.0 0.0%
Texas St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.9 1.0 0.2 93.4 0.0%
Old Dominion 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 93.5 0.0%
Appalachian St. 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 93.8 0.0%
Louisiana 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 96.3 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 97.4 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 98.3 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.6 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 98.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
James Madison 18.0% 0.1% 18.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 18.9% 0.2% 18.9% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 16.0% 0.1% 16.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 10.3% 0.1% 10.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 7.0% 0.1% 7.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 6.6% 0.1% 6.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 6.5% 0.2% 6.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 6.2% 0.1% 6.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 3.7% 0.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.7% 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 98.9 0.8 0.0
2nd Round 10.2% 0.1 89.8 10.2
Sweet Sixteen 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0