Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
142 Troy 28.4%   14   15 - 10 9 - 5 +1.3      +1.1 138 +0.2 162 65.9 254 +1.6 138 -0.1 3
144 Arkansas St. 11.4%   14 - 11 7 - 7 +0.8      +0.9 143 -0.1 172 77.0 20 -0.1 160 -3.5 7
173 Appalachian St. 18.1%   16 - 10 10 - 5 -0.8      -2.9 250 +2.1 108 60.1 361 -0.2 164 0.0 2
176 Marshall 15.0%   16 - 10 9 - 5 -1.0      +1.4 131 -2.4 249 71.8 97 +0.4 152 -0.3 4
181 South Alabama 17.2%   17 - 8 9 - 5 -1.3      -1.4 206 +0.1 165 63.7 312 +1.8 133 +0.6 1
213 James Madison 1.7%   13 - 13 6 - 8 -2.9      0.0 164 -2.8 262 64.4 295 -2.6 208 -4.6 9
231 Texas St. 3.6%   15 - 11 9 - 6 -4.0      -3.6 267 -0.5 186 66.3 244 -2.8 214 -1.5 5
233 Coastal Carolina 2.9%   15 - 11 8 - 6 -4.2      -4.5 290 +0.3 160 67.7 210 -1.2 181 -2.6 6
236 Old Dominion 0.2%   9 - 18 6 - 9 -4.3      -2.3 237 -1.9 230 70.5 126 -6.5 275 -6.9 13
243 Southern Miss 0.7%   12 - 14 7 - 8 -4.5      -4.2 281 -0.3 179 70.5 128 -3.6 222 -5.3 11
262 Georgia Southern 0.5%   13 - 12 7 - 7 -5.6      -1.0 190 -4.6 306 75.1 30 -4.2 233 -4.7 10
286 Georgia St. 0.2%   7 - 18 6 - 8 -7.1      -5.3 308 -1.8 228 69.8 141 -7.5 283 -4.0 8
298 Louisiana 0.1%   9 - 18 6 - 8 -7.8      -5.4 312 -2.4 247 60.2 360 -8.3 299 -6.5 12
355 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 23 1 - 13 -14.7      -6.6 334 -8.2 358 74.5 39 -20.3 362 -18.8 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 14 243 Southern Miss 69 142 Troy 65   
Sat, Feb 14 144 Arkansas St. 88 181 South Alabama 92   
Sat, Feb 14 173 Appalachian St. 58 213 James Madison 69   
Sat, Feb 14 231 Texas St. 95 355 Louisiana Monroe 84   
Sat, Feb 14 262 Georgia Southern 101 176 Marshall 87   
Sat, Feb 14 286 Georgia St. 55 236 Old Dominion 78   
Mon, Feb 16 298 Louisiana 72 236 Old Dominion 83   
Mon, Feb 16 176 Marshall 84 181 South Alabama 80   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 18 233 Coastal Carolina 71 213 James Madison 69 57%   
Wed, Feb 18 142 Troy 83 355 Louisiana Monroe 70 88%   
Thu, Feb 19 173 Appalachian St. 72 176 Marshall 68 63%   
Thu, Feb 19 181 South Alabama 71 231 Texas St. 65 71%   
Thu, Feb 19 262 Georgia Southern 78 286 Georgia St. 79 56%   
Thu, Feb 19 144 Arkansas St. 75 298 Louisiana 69 71%   
Sat, Feb 21 181 South Alabama 71 142 Troy 70 51%   
Sat, Feb 21 236 Old Dominion 73 243 Southern Miss 75 61%   
Sat, Feb 21 233 Coastal Carolina 74 176 Marshall 75 51%   
Sat, Feb 21 173 Appalachian St. 75 262 Georgia Southern 68 77%   
Sat, Feb 21 286 Georgia St. 71 213 James Madison 73 55%   
Sat, Feb 21 298 Louisiana 65 231 Texas St. 66 53%   
Sat, Feb 21 144 Arkansas St. 89 355 Louisiana Monroe 77 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 1.7 56.1 24.1 14.5 4.2 0.7 0.4 0.1
Arkansas St. 5.1 0.1 1.8 12.4 23.8 28.3 17.4 10.9 2.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 2.2 39.6 30.0 13.5 11.8 3.1 1.7 0.3 0.0
Marshall 3.0 23.0 22.2 18.8 20.0 7.9 4.9 2.6 0.5 0.1
South Alabama 2.2 42.2 22.4 19.5 10.0 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
James Madison 8.5 0.0 1.1 5.4 9.2 16.3 21.6 17.2 11.9 9.9 5.4 2.0
Texas St. 4.7 4.8 5.9 13.2 18.8 22.0 20.1 13.3 1.8 0.1
Coastal Carolina 5.6 1.9 4.2 8.6 14.0 17.5 19.4 18.1 9.2 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0
Old Dominion 10.8 0.0 0.6 2.4 8.0 14.9 13.0 20.6 21.5 19.1
Southern Miss 9.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 4.0 10.1 18.9 27.4 16.5 12.3 6.5 1.0
Georgia Southern 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 3.2 5.3 10.9 21.1 20.6 15.4 14.3 6.8 0.9
Georgia St. 9.1 0.7 3.1 6.2 11.5 18.7 18.6 13.2 13.1 8.9 5.9
Louisiana 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 3.9 10.5 11.9 22.9 24.9 21.8
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 12 - 6 18 - 11 0.1 1.4 13.1 48.7 36.8
Arkansas St. 10 - 8 17 - 12 0.2 2.7 15.1 39.0 43.0
Appalachian St. 12 - 6 18 - 11 5.2 25.7 44.6 24.5
Marshall 11 - 7 18 - 12 2.5 15.8 35.1 34.5 12.1
South Alabama 12 - 6 20 - 9 0.3 6.3 24.8 42.8 25.8
James Madison 8 - 10 15 - 15 3.3 16.5 33.4 34.1 12.6
Texas St. 10 - 8 16 - 13 17.4 41.2 32.8 8.6
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 17 - 13 8.6 27.1 36.7 22.0 5.7
Old Dominion 7 - 11 10 - 20 23.9 41.9 28.2 6.1
Southern Miss 8 - 10 13 - 16 23.3 46.6 25.7 4.4
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 14 - 15 25.2 40.4 25.9 7.7 0.8
Georgia St. 8 - 10 9 - 20 6.7 23.8 36.6 25.2 7.8
Louisiana 7 - 11 10 - 21 29.5 42.9 22.2 5.1 0.4
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 27 72.0 24.2 3.6 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 56.1% 23.8 18.2 8.9 4.5 0.6 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 39.6% 9.1 18.8 7.1 4.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
Marshall 23.0% 4.6 9.3 5.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 42.2% 16.5 13.0 7.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 0.0
James Madison
Texas St. 4.8% 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 1.9% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
Georgia Southern 0.0% 0.0
Georgia St.
Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 14   0.0 3.9 17.5 6.8 0.3 71.6 0.0%
Arkansas St. 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.5 4.8 5.2 1.0 0.0 88.6 0.0%
Appalachian St. 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0 2.0 8.9 6.8 0.5 81.9 0.0%
Marshall 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.1 2.7 8.0 4.0 0.2 85.0 0.0%
South Alabama 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.1 2.2 9.2 5.5 0.3 82.8 0.0%
James Madison 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 98.4 0.0%
Texas St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.2 96.4 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 97.2 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.6
2nd Round 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 28.4% 0.0% 28.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 11.4% 0.0% 11.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 18.1% 0.0% 18.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 15.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 17.2% 0.0% 17.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 3.6% 0.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%