Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
144 Arkansas St. 13.7%   16 - 11 9 - 7 +0.9      +1.3 132 -0.4 187 77.4 17 +0.1 156 -2.7 6
152 Troy 22.5%   14   16 - 11 10 - 6 +0.3      +0.3 158 0.0 167 65.6 257 +1.2 144 -0.6 3
173 Appalachian St. 15.5%   17 - 11 11 - 6 -0.7      -1.6 218 +0.9 147 60.1 359 -0.8 172 -0.9 4
178 Marshall 19.7%   17 - 11 10 - 6 -1.1      +2.1 114 -3.1 270 72.3 78 +0.4 153 -0.2 2
182 South Alabama 18.6%   18 - 9 10 - 6 -1.4      -1.3 203 -0.1 172 63.3 324 +1.3 143 -0.2 1
204 James Madison 2.4%   15 - 13 8 - 8 -2.4      -0.2 167 -2.2 242 64.3 295 -1.7 188 -3.0 7
235 Coastal Carolina 2.2%   16 - 12 9 - 7 -4.1      -5.1 304 +1.0 145 68.1 195 -1.5 182 -3.0 8
236 Texas St. 4.0%   16 - 12 10 - 7 -4.1      -3.3 257 -0.8 198 66.0 249 -2.8 212 -1.5 5
241 Southern Miss 0.8%   13 - 14 8 - 8 -4.4      -4.3 285 0.0 168 71.1 112 -3.4 227 -4.7 10
243 Old Dominion 0.1%   9 - 19 6 - 10 -4.4      -2.7 243 -1.8 228 71.3 106 -6.8 271 -7.4 13
266 Georgia Southern 0.2%   13 - 14 7 - 9 -6.0      -1.4 207 -4.6 305 75.1 31 -4.9 244 -5.8 11
288 Georgia St. 0.2%   8 - 19 7 - 9 -7.6      -6.2 323 -1.4 214 69.4 152 -7.5 283 -4.5 9
291 Louisiana 0.0%   10 - 19 7 - 9 -7.6      -5.5 312 -2.1 239 60.0 360 -8.0 292 -6.3 12
353 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   2 - 25 1 - 15 -14.0      -5.6 315 -8.4 358 74.8 34 -20.5 363 -19.3 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 21 182 South Alabama 65 152 Troy 54   
Sat, Feb 21 173 Appalachian St. 89 266 Georgia Southern 74   
Sat, Feb 21 243 Old Dominion 81 241 Southern Miss 86   
Sat, Feb 21 235 Coastal Carolina 79 178 Marshall 75   
Sat, Feb 21 144 Arkansas St. 102 353 Louisiana Monroe 94   
Sat, Feb 21 288 Georgia St. 65 204 James Madison 80   
Sat, Feb 21 291 Louisiana 67 236 Texas St. 54   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Feb 24 178 Marshall 83 243 Old Dominion 77 73%   
Tue, Feb 24 144 Arkansas St. 83 241 Southern Miss 75 78%   
Tue, Feb 24 235 Coastal Carolina 70 288 Georgia St. 69 52%   
Tue, Feb 24 291 Louisiana 61 152 Troy 72 85%   
Wed, Feb 25 266 Georgia Southern 74 204 James Madison 81 74%   
Wed, Feb 25 182 South Alabama 83 353 Louisiana Monroe 67 92%   
Fri, Feb 27 235 Coastal Carolina 67 204 James Madison 72 68%   
Fri, Feb 27 173 Appalachian St. 67 236 Texas St. 66 52%   
Fri, Feb 27 182 South Alabama 73 241 Southern Miss 67 72%   
Fri, Feb 27 266 Georgia Southern 80 178 Marshall 88 78%   
Fri, Feb 27 288 Georgia St. 72 243 Old Dominion 73 51%   
Fri, Feb 27 144 Arkansas St. 78 291 Louisiana 67 86%   
Fri, Feb 27 152 Troy 86 353 Louisiana Monroe 69 94%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 4.3 0.9 7.9 22.5 26.7 23.5 12.9 4.0 1.4 0.3
Troy 1.4 81.7 5.7 8.0 3.8 0.4 0.3 0.1
Appalachian St. 2.0 53.0 10.2 22.2 14.6
Marshall 2.0 57.9 8.5 17.1 11.0 2.9 2.3 0.4
South Alabama 1.7 68.0 8.4 14.2 7.5 1.0 0.7 0.1
James Madison 7.1 0.0 0.9 10.0 23.8 23.6 33.7 6.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
Coastal Carolina 6.2 0.2 2.1 6.1 7.6 13.2 24.1 23.2 22.1 1.3
Texas St. 4.4 1.4 10.2 22.2 16.1 15.4 29.0 5.7
Southern Miss 8.6 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.9 4.9 26.4 46.8 14.6 0.9 0.0
Old Dominion 11.7 0.5 7.2 14.0 21.9 16.6 39.9
Georgia Southern 10.3 0.0 2.1 7.4 15.5 22.8 37.4 13.9 1.0
Georgia St. 9.5 0.1 4.5 20.2 26.3 28.4 13.6 5.9 1.0
Louisiana 10.8 0.0 0.4 2.2 10.5 19.1 39.7 25.8 2.3
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 11 - 7 18 - 11 3.5 28.9 67.7
Troy 12 - 6 18 - 11 0.9 18.7 80.4
Appalachian St. 12 - 6 18 - 11 48.4 51.6
Marshall 12 - 6 19 - 11 6.7 36.5 56.8
South Alabama 12 - 6 20 - 9 2.3 31.0 66.7
James Madison 9 - 9 16 - 14 9.4 41.3 49.3
Coastal Carolina 10 - 8 17 - 13 31.9 50.1 18.0
Texas St. 10 - 8 16 - 13 51.6 48.4
Southern Miss 9 - 9 14 - 15 56.4 37.0 6.7
Old Dominion 7 - 11 10 - 20 36.5 49.3 14.2
Georgia Southern 7 - 11 13 - 16 56.9 36.6 6.5
Georgia St. 8 - 10 9 - 20 27.2 49.0 23.9
Louisiana 7 - 11 10 - 21 72.9 24.7 2.4
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 27 88.2 11.4 0.4

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 0.9% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1
Troy 81.7% 5.7 24.7 33.9 16.1 0.5 0.7 0.1
Appalachian St. 53.0% 1.5 10.8 23.2 16.2 0.5 0.7 0.1
Marshall 57.9% 1.8 12.8 26.2 16.1 0.4 0.7 0.1
South Alabama 68.0% 2.8 17.7 30.1 16.2 0.5 0.7 0.1
James Madison
Coastal Carolina 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1
Texas St. 1.4% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1
Southern Miss
Old Dominion
Georgia Southern
Georgia St.
Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.4 5.5 6.8 1.0 0.0 86.3 0.0%
Troy 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 14   0.8 13.3 8.0 0.4 0.0 77.5 0.0%
Appalachian St. 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 8.1 5.6 0.3 84.5 0.0%
Marshall 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0 2.5 11.6 5.4 0.1 80.3 0.0%
South Alabama 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 10.2 6.6 0.2 81.4 0.0%
James Madison 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 97.6 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 97.8 0.0%
Texas St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.5 2.4 1.1 96.0 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 99.2 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.7
2nd Round 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 13.7% 0.0% 13.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 22.5% 0.0% 22.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 15.5% 0.0% 15.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 19.7% 0.0% 19.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 18.6% 0.0% 18.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 4.0% 0.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%