Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
128 Troy 30.2%   14   8 - 5 3 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 4 +2.0      +0.5 151 +1.5 118 67.9 226 +4.0 109 +9.7 2
137 Arkansas St. 23.2%   8 - 5 2 - 1 19 - 9 13 - 5 +1.3      +1.6 125 -0.3 179 78.9 18 +3.4 113 +1.1 3
165 Marshall 12.5%   9 - 5 2 - 1 18 - 11 11 - 7 -0.5      +0.5 153 -1.0 203 72.8 82 +2.5 129 +0.6 4
195 James Madison 6.1%   7 - 7 1 - 2 16 - 13 10 - 8 -2.2      +1.4 127 -3.6 292 64.6 302 -0.9 178 -3.1 7
197 South Alabama 6.5%   9 - 5 2 - 2 17 - 11 10 - 8 -2.3      -2.3 233 0.0 167 61.9 349 +0.9 154 -3.8 9
204 Georgia Southern 8.4%   10 - 5 4 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 -2.7      +0.4 154 -3.1 274 75.8 40 +0.3 159 +10.6 1
206 Southern Miss 6.3%   7 - 7 3 - 1 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.8      -1.5 204 -1.3 213 70.5 150 -1.4 193 -1.1 6
224 Appalachian St. 3.8%   7 - 7 2 - 2 14 - 14 9 - 9 -3.6      -2.9 250 -0.6 191 60.1 364 -2.7 214 -5.1 10
253 Old Dominion 0.7%   3 - 12 1 - 3 9 - 20 7 - 11 -5.4      -2.6 242 -2.8 257 72.1 97 -10.4 321 -12.4 13
264 Texas St. 1.0%   7 - 7 2 - 2 13 - 15 8 - 10 -5.9      -3.5 272 -2.5 248 66.1 271 -4.8 240 -3.3 8
267 Coastal Carolina 0.8%   7 - 8 1 - 3 13 - 16 7 - 11 -6.0      -5.4 314 -0.7 195 71.0 132 -3.7 228 -11.3 11
301 Georgia St. 0.5%   3 - 11 2 - 2 8 - 20 7 - 11 -7.9      -5.0 308 -2.9 263 71.8 108 -7.4 276 -0.2 5
315 Louisiana 0.1%   3 - 13 1 - 3 8 - 22 6 - 12 -8.8      -7.8 347 -1.0 201 60.8 357 -12.3 333 -11.8 12
356 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 13 0 - 4 3 - 25 2 - 16 -13.8      -6.3 331 -7.5 352 75.5 41 -23.5 364 -23.8 14




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 31 315 Louisiana 58 197 South Alabama 63   
Wed, Dec 31 301 Georgia St. 80 165 Marshall 84   
Wed, Dec 31 264 Texas St. 80 128 Troy 100   
Wed, Dec 31 224 Appalachian St. 81 253 Old Dominion 73   
Thu, Jan 1 267 Coastal Carolina 81 204 Georgia Southern 82   
Thu, Jan 1 206 Southern Miss 87 356 Louisiana Monroe 73   
Sat, Jan 3 137 Arkansas St. 74 195 James Madison 78   
Sat, Jan 3 315 Louisiana 67 206 Southern Miss 74   
Sat, Jan 3 197 South Alabama 49 128 Troy 59   
Sat, Jan 3 267 Coastal Carolina 71 301 Georgia St. 89   
Sat, Jan 3 264 Texas St. 84 356 Louisiana Monroe 79   
Sat, Jan 3 224 Appalachian St. 81 165 Marshall 88   
Sat, Jan 3 204 Georgia Southern 93 253 Old Dominion 86   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 7 137 Arkansas St. 80 128 Troy 77 59%   
Wed, Jan 7 195 James Madison 77 165 Marshall 76 55%   
Thu, Jan 8 267 Coastal Carolina 75 253 Old Dominion 73 59%   
Thu, Jan 8 206 Southern Miss 75 264 Texas St. 69 72%   
Thu, Jan 8 224 Appalachian St. 68 301 Georgia St. 67 55%   
Thu, Jan 8 315 Louisiana 73 356 Louisiana Monroe 65 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 2.2 50.5 20.7 11.7 6.9 4.3 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 2.9 31.3 23.3 16.2 10.8 7.4 4.5 2.9 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1
Marshall 4.3 13.1 17.8 15.9 13.6 11.1 8.8 6.8 4.9 3.4 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
James Madison 6.1 3.6 7.4 10.2 11.7 12.3 11.5 11.2 9.5 7.6 5.9 4.3 3.0 1.6 0.1
South Alabama 5.8 4.4 8.7 10.9 12.1 12.6 12.2 12.0 9.6 7.2 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.0
Georgia Southern 3.9 16.6 18.5 16.2 13.9 10.8 8.5 6.0 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 5.4 6.3 9.8 12.1 13.4 13.1 12.4 10.0 7.8 6.3 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.0
Appalachian St. 6.6 2.2 5.7 8.1 10.1 11.4 11.8 11.8 11.2 9.8 7.5 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.1
Old Dominion 9.6 0.1 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.4 7.6 9.9 12.4 13.8 15.2 14.9 11.5 1.5
Texas St. 8.3 0.7 1.8 3.2 4.8 6.7 8.9 11.0 12.1 13.6 12.7 11.1 8.4 4.6 0.5
Coastal Carolina 9.5 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.6 9.7 11.6 13.5 14.8 14.6 11.2 1.8
Georgia St. 9.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.6 6.8 8.6 10.3 12.5 13.4 13.8 12.9 8.9 1.1
Louisiana 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.2 5.0 7.8 10.8 15.1 21.7 27.8 4.9
Louisiana Monroe 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 4.6 14.0 78.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.7 8.3 13.2 16.9 19.0 16.8 11.7 5.3 1.3
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.9 8.4 12.7 17.1 19.3 16.9 12.1 5.6 1.2
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 3.0 5.8 10.0 13.9 17.3 17.3 14.3 9.7 5.2 1.8 0.3
James Madison 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.6 8.1 12.2 16.5 17.2 15.9 11.4 7.0 2.8 0.9 0.1
South Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.2 7.1 11.8 16.8 18.5 16.5 13.1 7.3 3.3 0.8 0.2
Georgia Southern 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.7 8.9 13.5 16.9 17.8 15.2 11.0 5.9 2.5 0.8 0.1
Southern Miss 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.6 10.7 14.8 17.6 17.7 14.2 8.9 4.7 1.8 0.4 0.1
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.8 10.3 15.2 17.9 16.7 14.5 9.2 4.7 1.9 0.5 0.1
Old Dominion 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 3.2 7.7 13.0 17.0 18.4 16.6 11.6 7.0 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 2.9 7.2 12.7 17.0 18.2 16.9 11.8 7.3 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.5 12.6 16.6 17.7 16.1 11.9 7.4 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 7 - 11 0.4 2.3 6.0 11.2 15.9 17.3 16.9 13.1 8.8 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 6 - 12 0.5 3.3 9.4 15.7 20.7 19.5 14.2 9.2 4.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 2 - 16 11.7 24.1 26.5 19.1 10.7 5.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 50.5% 35.6 11.4 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Arkansas St. 31.3% 19.2 8.9 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Marshall 13.1% 6.4 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
James Madison 3.6% 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 4.4% 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 16.6% 8.8 5.4 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 6.3% 2.7 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 2.2% 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 30.2% 30.2% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.6 6.2 15.5 7.2 0.7 0.0 69.8 0.0%
Arkansas St. 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 0.2 2.0 9.5 9.4 2.0 0.1 76.8 0.0%
Marshall 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.0 2.2 0.1 87.5 0.0%
James Madison 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.0 0.2 93.9 0.0%
South Alabama 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 1.7 0.2 93.5 0.0%
Georgia Southern 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.0 0.7 91.6 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.9 0.6 93.7 0.0%
Appalachian St. 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.4 96.2 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Texas St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 99.0 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 99.2 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 30.2% 0.0% 30.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 23.2% 0.0% 23.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 12.5% 0.0% 12.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 6.5% 0.0% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 8.4% 0.1% 8.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.3% 0.1% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 3.8% 0.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 99.5
2nd Round 5.0% 0.1 95.0 5.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0