Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.0 28
Expected Predictive Rating +14.7 35
Pace 68.8 174
Improvement -0.1 194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 12 B+ A- A- A B
Defense B- 73 C+ B- B C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 78 B 64% 57 +4.7 35
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 298 B+ 44% 40 -1.1 240
Three Pointers 43% 147 B- 36% 86 +2.4 97
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 61 B+ +4.8 46
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 35
Second Chance A 39.7% 8 C+ 1.06 129 A- 0.42 25
Turnovers A- 13.4% 18
Freethrows A 0.40 4 B 75% 73 A 0.30 4
Total Offense A +11.3 12

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 140 C+ 10.1% 124
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 107 A- 1.7% 14
Three Pointers F 72% 354 C- 1.1% 234
Total C 55% 198 B- 5.0% 104

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 249 B 53% 58 -3.0 81
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 125 C- 39% 220 +0.8 256
Three Pointers 42% 156 C- 34% 208 +0.6 219
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 110 C+ -1.3 127
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 121
Second Chance B- 27.9% 81 C 1.02 165 B- 0.28 97
Turnovers B 18.9% 66
Freethrows B- 0.28 94 C- 74% 253 C+ 0.20 117
Total Defense B- +3.7 73

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 57 A- 17.1% 28
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 165 B- 6.4% 84
Three Pointers B 79% 354 C+ 1.2% 234
Total B- 51% 84 B+ 8.1% 36

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 69 18.5 334
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 49 0.13 56
Improvement +0.1 #182 -0.1 #205

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 6 Seed 10% 13% 4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74% 81% 58%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73% 81% 58%
Average Seed 8.7 8.5 9.4
.500 or above 97% 99% 93%
.500 or above in Conference 57% 70% 31%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four16% 14% 19%
First Round68% 76% 51%
Second Round38% 43% 26%
Sweet Sixteen10% 12% 7%
Elite Eight4% 5% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 12
Quad 24 - 210 - 14
Quad 33 - 013 - 14
Quad 46 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 245 Bethune-Cookman W 95 - 90 OT 97% +1  61% 1 - 0 C- -3 B +7 C- B B- F -10 F B+ D
 Thu, Nov 6 161 Merrimack W 95 - 57 94% +18  92% 2 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +24 B+ A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ B- C
 Tue, Nov 11 224 Wofford W 93 - 62 97% +19  95% 3 - 0 A+ +25 A- +10 B- A+ C A+ +14 A- B+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 5 Houston L 72 - 73 24% -3  11% 3 - 1 A +21 A- +11 C+ B+ A+ A +11 B A- B+
 Wed, Nov 19 332 Jackson St. W 112 - 66 99% +26  94% 4 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +20 A+ C- B+ A- +8 C- C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 88 Oregon W 84 - 73 80% +3  75% 5 - 1 A- +17 A +12 C A+ A+ B+ +5 A- F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72 - 102 13% -21  3% 5 - 2 C- -3 B+ +9 B C+ A+ F -12 B- F D
 Wed, Nov 26 20 St. John's W 85 - 74 39% +0  45% 6 - 2 A+ +29 A+ +24 A+ A+ A- B+ +6 A F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 24 North Carolina St. W 83 - 73 58% +5  82% 7 - 2 A+ +23 A +12 A+ C F A+ +11 A- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 3 @Arizona L 68 - 97 13% -15  6% 7 - 3 C- -2 C+ +3 D B+ D+ D+ -3 F+ C- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 293 Chattanooga W 92 - 78 97% +7  95% 8 - 3 B- +7 A +13 A+ A F D- -6 C- C F
 Sat, Dec 20 8 Purdue L 60 - 88 28% -13  3% 8 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 C- F+ B+ D -6 D F A
 Mon, Dec 29 208 Queens W 106 - 65 96% +30  99% 9 - 4 A+ +35 A+ +17 A+ B- B- A+ +16 A+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 3 37 @Georgia L 100 - 104 OT 42% -1  26% 9 - 5 0 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +16 B+ B A- C- -2 D B C-
 Tue, Jan 6 33 Texas A&M L 88 - 90 63% +0  43% 9 - 6 0 - 2 B +10 A +13 C+ A+ B D+ -3 D- F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 16 Arkansas W 95 - 73 48% +15  93% 10 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +22 A+ A+ A- A+ +15 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 55 @Missouri L 74 - 84 55% -4  25% 10 - 7 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 C- A B- C- -2 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 92 South Carolina W 71 - 67 87% +5  88% 11 - 7 2 - 3 B- +7 D+ -3 D F+ C A +9 B+ C- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 75 @Mississippi W 78 - 66 66% +5  86% 12 - 7 3 - 3 A +23 A +13 D A+ A A +10 A+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 4 @Florida W 76 - 67 15% +8  93% 13 - 7 4 - 3 A+ +35 A+ +20 A+ C+ B+ A+ +16 A- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 27 Texas W 88 - 82 60% -3  26% 14 - 7 5 - 3 A +18 A+ +23 A+ C+ A+ D+ -4 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 19 @Tennessee L 69 - 77 28% -8  0% 14 - 8 5 - 4 B+ +13 B +6 D+ A B+ A- +7 B A A-
 Sat, Feb 7 18 Alabama L 92 - 96 49% +2  60% 14 - 9 5 - 5 B +11 A+ +14 A A- A+ C- -3 D+ D A+
 Tue, Feb 10 12 Vanderbilt L 76 - 84 45% -7  1% 14 - 10 5 - 6 B +8 A+ +14 C A+ A+ D- -7 B F+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 16 @Arkansas L 75 - 88 27% -8  10% 14 - 11 5 - 7 B +8 A- +11 C B- A+ D+ -3 D C+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 74 @Mississippi St. W 80 - 76 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 25 Kentucky W 80 - 78 58%
 Tue, Feb 24 50 @Oklahoma W 82 - 81 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 75 Mississippi W 81 - 71 83%
 Tue, Mar 3 56 LSU W 84 - 76 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 18 @Alabama L 87 - 93 28%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 9 +15 A +11 A+ B+ B B- +4 B- B A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A B B+ B- B+ 42% 27% 43% B B+ A C+ A- A- A B A B- B C- C- C+ 36% 22% 42% C+ C+ B- C B- B B- C- C+
1.25 64% 44% 36% +5 +1 1.14 40% 1.1 .42 13% .40 75% .30 1.03 53% 39% 34% -1 0 0.99 28% 1.0 .28 19% .28 74% .29
Nov
3		 Bethune-Cookman B D+ A F+ D 54% 7% 39% A- C- B+ C- B B- A+ C- A+ F D A+ F F 44% 21% 35% D+ F B+ B B+ D A+ F A+
1.19 52% 50% 29% -6 +3 0.96 40% 1.1 .44 14% .55 71% .39 1.13 64% 23% 50% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 16% .14 89% .12
Nov
6		 Merrimack A+ B+ A+ D- A- 34% 21% 45% C- B+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 31% 12% 57% B- A+ C+ B B- C F A- D
1.41 63% 60% 29% +3 0 1.06 60% 1.2 .74 12% .62 73% .45 0.84 47% 17% 25% -14 +1 0.76 23% 0.9 .20 16% .42 71% .30
Nov
11		 Wofford A- C A+ B- B+ 35% 22% 44% D- B- A+ D- A+ C C F D A+ C+ C+ A+ A- 40% 20% 40% B- A- A- B B+ B+ A+ F A+
1.31 58% 58% 38% +7 0 1.15 51% 1.0 .51 15% .30 67% .20 0.87 55% 36% 23% -8 0 0.85 22% 0.9 .19 18% .17 80% .14
Nov
16		 Houston A- D D+ C- C+ 36% 22% 42% C+ C+ A- C+ B+ A+ A+ D A+ A B- F A B+ 28% 33% 39% C+ B C A+ A- B+ B+ D- B-
1.08 50% 30% 32% -6 0 0.89 35% 0.9 .33 12% .56 64% .36 1.09 60% 50% 29% +1 -2 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 15% .21 83% .18
Nov
19		 Jackson St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 5% 51% A- A+ D+ B- C- B+ D- A- D+ A- B- D- C+ D 26% 39% 35% A+ C- F A C- A+ F B- F+
1.48 88% 67% 43% +22 +2 1.51 32% 1.1 .36 12% .29 79% .23 0.87 50% 44% 31% -1 -3 0.93 33% 0.8 .27 29% .35 74% .26
Nov
24		 Oregon A A+ B- F C 34% 29% 38% C- C C+ A+ A+ A+ A A- A+ B+ A F A A 24% 11% 64% B- A- F C+ F A+ F D- F
1.20 68% 44% 24% -1 -1 0.98 32% 1.3 .42 9% .36 83% .30 1.04 45% 60% 28% -7 0 0.89 48% 1.1 .52 26% .44 78% .35
Nov
25		 Michigan B+ F F A+ B- 33% 23% 44% B+ B B D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ F B F D B 38% 5% 57% C+ B- D- F+ F D C+ F C-
1.01 35% 8% 43% -8 -1 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 11% .52 55% .29 1.44 57% 67% 38% +4 +2 1.14 44% 1.5 .67 13% .35 82% .29
Nov
26		 St. John's A+ A+ C A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ B+ B A+ A A+ 44% 10% 46% C- A F D+ F A+ F C- F
1.28 73% 36% 42% +10 0 1.22 48% 1.1 .52 18% .46 84% .38 1.11 52% 20% 27% -9 +2 0.88 45% 1.3 .57 21% .53 75% .40
Dec
3		 North Carolina St. A A+ F A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ C C+ C F A+ A+ A+ A+ C- B B A- 34% 16% 50% B- A- A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A
1.18 75% 25% 55% +21 +1 1.48 26% 1.0 .26 28% .44 86% .38 1.04 63% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 21% 0.6 .13 13% .21 85% .18
Dec
6		 Arizona C+ F+ F F D- 27% 29% 44% C+ D A+ C B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D F F F 46% 30% 25% C+ F+ B- D- C- B+ A+ C- A+
0.92 43% 27% 26% -13 -2 0.73 36% 0.8 .29 20% .42 80% .34 1.31 69% 65% 43% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.1 .41 17% .20 75% .15
Dec
13		 Chattanooga A A+ A+ A A+ 16% 26% 58% F A+ A+ C- A F A+ B+ A+ D- A F D- D 33% 31% 35% A- C- A F C F D F F
1.31 86% 55% 40% +14 -2 1.26 47% 1.1 .53 19% .65 78% .51 1.11 44% 53% 37% +2 -2 1.02 13% 1.8 .22 9% .31 85% .27
Dec
20		 Purdue D+ D+ A- F C- 29% 25% 45% C+ C- B+ F F+ B+ A C+ A- D F F D D 35% 18% 47% D+ D C- F F A A+ F B
0.92 53% 46% 26% -5 -1 0.90 29% 0.5 .13 15% .29 69% .20 1.35 76% 56% 39% +13 0 1.29 39% 1.7 .65 17% .18 100% .18
Dec
29		 Queens A+ A F A+ A+ 38% 13% 48% C+ A+ A D B- B- A+ D A A+ B A+ A+ A+ 55% 18% 27% D A+ B+ F C B+ F D+ F
1.43 70% 14% 60% +20 +1 1.44 43% 0.9 .40 14% .47 70% .33 0.88 56% 22% 8% -15 +1 0.76 25% 1.3 .33 19% .45 78% .35
Jan
3		 Georgia A+ B A+ F B 47% 14% 40% A- B+ A+ D- B A- A+ C- A+ C- B- F D- D- 41% 14% 45% C D A+ F B C- F B F
1.21 59% 75% 26% +1 +1 1.07 48% 0.7 .35 16% .52 67% .35 1.26 58% 75% 38% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.3 .35 13% .49 71% .35
Jan
6		 Texas A&M A F A+ D C- 41% 12% 47% B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ B- A+ D+ B+ F F F+ 37% 12% 52% B D- D+ F F A- C- A+ B-
1.20 45% 83% 30% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.3 .59 18% .52 74% .38 1.23 53% 83% 44% +11 +1 1.27 36% 1.3 .48 19% .34 65% .22
Jan
10		 Arkansas A+ A F A+ A+ 53% 11% 36% A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A- A+ B A+ A+ A- A D- A 35% 27% 38% A A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ D+ B- C-
1.33 68% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 2.0 .62 14% .39 71% .28 1.02 56% 29% 40% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.1 .25 15% .35 71% .25
Jan
14		 Missouri B- C- D+ D D+ 40% 19% 40% B+ C- A B A B- A+ D+ A+ C- F+ D+ F F 49% 12% 40% D- F A+ A A+ C+ F C F
1.08 53% 33% 32% -5 0 0.94 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 71% .35 1.23 71% 40% 47% +15 +2 1.35 27% 1.0 .27 19% .56 68% .38
Jan
17		 South Carolina D+ B+ B- F F+ 52% 10% 38% A+ D C+ F F+ C A+ A- A+ A A C- C+ A- 42% 14% 44% D- B+ F+ B+ C- A+ D A+ B-
1.02 64% 40% 11% -10 +2 0.88 30% 0.5 .16 16% .51 77% .39 0.96 48% 43% 32% -5 +1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 21% .36 65% .24
Jan
20		 Mississippi A A+ D F D- 40% 23% 38% B- D A+ B A+ A A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- C- A 13% 42% 44% A+ A+ A+ F B- F+ B+ D- B-
1.18 69% 33% 13% -8 0 0.85 42% 1.2 .48 14% .69 82% .56 1.00 14% 41% 35% -4 -5 0.85 22% 1.4 .30 9% .25 80% .20
Jan
24		 Florida A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ 50% 23% 27% A A+ B+ D+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C- A 43% 13% 45% B- A- B- A+ A+ B- F A+ D
1.16 58% 55% 31% +3 +1 1.08 27% 0.6 .17 14% .37 90% .34 1.02 55% 17% 33% -4 +1 0.96 41% 0.6 .27 17% .50 59% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Texas A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 12% 49% A A+ C B- C+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ B F F F 31% 16% 53% C F A+ B A+ B D+ D+ D
1.38 56% 60% 50% +14 +1 1.32 24% 1.0 .24 5% .64 74% .48 1.29 57% 71% 46% +14 0 1.31 29% 1.1 .33 17% .44 78% .34
Jan
31		 Tennessee B C+ F F D- 39% 11% 50% A- D+ B A+ A B+ B+ B B+ A- F A+ C- C+ 37% 37% 26% A+ B D+ A+ A A- F F F
1.01 57% 17% 22% -12 +1 0.81 29% 1.3 .37 15% .34 70% .24 1.12 75% 25% 36% +2 -2 1.02 49% 0.8 .37 22% .58 81% .47
Feb
7		 Alabama A+ A- A+ C- A 43% 14% 43% A A A+ C A- A+ B A+ A- C- C A+ F D 44% 17% 39% C+ D+ A+ F D A+ D F F
1.23 64% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.10 38% 0.9 .35 7% .32 77% .24 1.29 63% 33% 48% +9 +1 1.22 25% 1.9 .46 19% .38 87% .33
Feb
10		 Vanderbilt A+ F F A+ D+ 51% 14% 35% A+ C A+ A A+ A+ A+ B A+ D- B- A+ F+ B+ 40% 14% 47% D+ B D+ F F+ D F F F
1.19 44% 0% 41% -9 +2 0.88 51% 1.2 .60 12% .48 78% .37 1.31 59% 17% 40% +2 +1 1.07 36% 1.4 .50 11% .53 87% .46
Feb
14		 Arkansas A- F B C C+ 38% 32% 30% D- C A F B- A+ A A A+ D+ F A+ C- D 50% 15% 35% D- D A F C+ F A A A
1.12 45% 41% 31% -5 -2 0.89 38% 1.0 .38 10% .33 75% .25 1.32 81% 25% 37% +11 +2 1.28 27% 1.6 .42 7% .24 67% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 1.9 3.1 5th
6th 0.2 5.3 0.8 6.3 6th
7th 2.5 8.3 0.2 11.0 7th
8th 0.5 10.1 4.2 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.1 5.4 13.2 0.6 19.3 9th
10th 0.0 2.1 12.6 5.6 0.0 20.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 8.9 8.6 0.6 19.1 11th
12th 0.0 1.4 1.7 0.1 3.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.3 3.1 12.8 27.3 32.2 19.7 4.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 4.7% 99.5% 5.7% 93.8% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.5%
10-8 19.7% 97.1% 3.2% 93.9% 7.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 5.9 5.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.6 97.0%
9-9 32.2% 89.5% 1.8% 87.7% 8.9 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 5.5 7.4 7.6 3.6 0.0 3.4 89.3%
8-10 27.3% 65.2% 1.2% 64.0% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 4.1 9.7 0.3 9.5 64.8%
7-11 12.8% 24.9% 0.7% 24.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.6 24.4%
6-12 3.1% 3.1% 0.8% 2.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 2.4%
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 73.6% 1.9% 71.7% 8.7 26.4 73.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.5 1.3 10.1 40.5 35.4 12.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 5.0 3.2 23.2 45.6 23.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 99.4% 5.5 2.9 10.2 37.8 31.4 16.3 0.9
Lose Out 0.2%