Auburn
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#21
Expected Predictive Rating+15.2#23
Pace75.2#52
Improvement+0.5#137

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#21
First Shot+4.5#54
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#24
Layup/Dunks+2.2#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#164
Freethrows+1.0#116
Improvement+0.1#173

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#39
First Shot+8.8#15
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#316
Layups/Dunks+5.9#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#75
Freethrows+1.1#122
Improvement+0.5#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
#1 Seed 6.2% 7.2% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 14.0% 15.7% 6.3%
Top 4 Seed 34.5% 37.6% 21.1%
Top 6 Seed 56.2% 59.6% 41.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.9% 90.1% 78.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.5% 88.9% 76.6%
Average Seed 5.6 5.4 6.4
.500 or above 97.6% 98.5% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.5% 86.7% 80.1%
Conference Champion 14.5% 15.7% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four3.7% 3.4% 5.2%
First Round86.2% 88.7% 75.1%
Second Round61.5% 63.9% 50.9%
Sweet Sixteen31.3% 33.6% 21.3%
Elite Eight15.3% 16.6% 9.6%
Final Four6.9% 7.8% 3.3%
Championship Game3.0% 3.3% 1.7%
National Champion1.3% 1.3% 1.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 81.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 37 - 119 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 134   Morehead St. W 77-54 91%     1 - 0 +22.2 +5.0 +17.6
  Nov 12, 2021 263   Louisiana Monroe W 93-65 97%     2 - 0 +19.4 +9.7 +7.7
  Nov 19, 2021 225   South Florida W 58-52 93%     3 - 0 +3.2 -6.5 +10.3
  Nov 24, 2021 26   Connecticut L 109-115 2OT 53%     3 - 1 +7.2 +12.6 -3.7
  Nov 25, 2021 33   Loyola Chicago W 62-53 58%     4 - 1 +20.9 +2.9 +18.9
  Nov 26, 2021 71   Syracuse W 89-68 75%     5 - 1 +28.1 +15.2 +12.9
  Dec 01, 2021 65   Central Florida W 78-68 81%    
  Dec 04, 2021 121   Yale W 82-68 91%    
  Dec 11, 2021 107   Nebraska W 83-73 82%    
  Dec 14, 2021 308   North Alabama W 87-62 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 56   @ Saint Louis W 78-75 60%    
  Dec 22, 2021 89   Murray St. W 77-66 85%    
  Dec 29, 2021 10   LSU W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 04, 2022 98   @ South Carolina W 81-75 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 14   Florida W 74-73 56%    
  Jan 11, 2022 13   @ Alabama L 79-84 34%    
  Jan 15, 2022 69   @ Mississippi W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 19, 2022 159   Georgia W 84-68 94%    
  Jan 22, 2022 12   Kentucky W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 25, 2022 132   @ Missouri W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 35   Oklahoma W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 01, 2022 13   Alabama W 82-81 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 159   @ Georgia W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 08, 2022 24   @ Arkansas L 78-81 42%    
  Feb 12, 2022 80   Texas A&M W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 16, 2022 77   Vanderbilt W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 14   @ Florida L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 23, 2022 69   Mississippi W 74-64 79%    
  Feb 26, 2022 18   @ Tennessee L 72-76 38%    
  Mar 02, 2022 38   @ Mississippi St. W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 05, 2022 98   South Carolina W 84-72 85%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.0 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.2 14.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.1 5.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.3 4.6 1.1 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.8 4.3 6.2 1.0 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.5 3.2 5.5 1.8 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.0 2.3 0.2 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.2 0.4 8.6 7th
8th 0.4 2.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.1 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.7 6.9 10.1 12.7 13.9 15.1 12.1 10.5 6.3 3.0 1.5 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.9% 1.5    1.4 0.0
16-2 94.1% 2.8    2.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 73.8% 4.6    2.7 1.7 0.2
14-4 38.2% 4.0    1.2 2.0 0.7 0.1
13-5 10.3% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 8.1 4.5 1.6 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.3% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.3 1.5 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.5% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 3.0 1.3 2.6 3.1 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.1% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 4.0 0.4 0.9 3.2 3.2 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
12-6 15.1% 99.7% 10.0% 89.7% 5.2 0.1 0.3 1.8 2.7 3.9 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 99.7%
11-7 13.9% 98.5% 6.1% 92.4% 6.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.8 3.1 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.4%
10-8 12.7% 92.3% 4.6% 87.7% 7.7 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 1.0 91.9%
9-9 10.1% 85.7% 2.1% 83.6% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.4 85.4%
8-10 6.9% 53.3% 1.3% 52.0% 10.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.2 52.7%
7-11 3.7% 35.1% 1.8% 33.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 2.4 33.9%
6-12 2.3% 5.5% 0.9% 4.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.7%
5-13 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 12.0 0.0 1.0 1.9%
4-14 0.3% 6.0% 6.0% 12.0 0.0 0.3 6.0%
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 87.9% 10.2% 77.7% 5.6 6.2 7.7 10.5 10.1 11.4 10.3 8.7 7.2 5.9 4.4 4.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 12.1 86.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0