Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.5 33
Expected Predictive Rating +13.9 42
Pace 68.7 178
Improvement -1.4 237

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 10 B+ A- A- A B
Defense B- 95 C+ B- B- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 88 B 63% 69 +4.2 44
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 294 B 43% 48 -1.3 252
Three Pointers 43% 143 B 37% 68 +2.7 89
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 63 B +4.5 48
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 37
Second Chance A 40.0% 7 C+ 1.07 113 A- 0.43 21
Turnovers A- 13.5% 19
Freethrows A 0.40 4 B 76% 74 A 0.30 4
Total Offense A +11.7 10

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 141 C 10.9% 176
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 115 B+ 2.0% 18
Three Pointers F+ 73% 352 D+ 1.2% 275
Total C 55% 192 C+ 5.4% 165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 269 B 53% 68 -3.3 73
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 112 C 38% 185 +0.6 243
Three Pointers 42% 146 C- 35% 239 +1.3 250
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 101 C+ -0.9 143
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 128
Second Chance B- 27.8% 79 C 1.02 172 B- 0.28 93
Turnovers B- 18.6% 74
Freethrows B- 0.28 94 D+ 74% 267 C+ 0.20 120
Total Defense B- +2.9 95

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 57 A- 17.0% 29
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 183 B- 6.7% 76
Three Pointers B 79% 57 C+ 1.1% 124
Total B- 52% 94 B+ 8.0% 38

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 72 18.5 332
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 45 0.14 70
Improvement +0.4 #162 -1.8 #281

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 41 33 24
Conference Record 6 - 12 8 - 10 10 - 8
Conference Finish 12 10 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None 11 6
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 5% 8% 1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62% 75% 44%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61% 75% 43%
Average Seed 9.2 8.9 9.9
.500 or above 93% 99% 85%
.500 or above in Conference 31% 48% 8%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four19% 17% 20%
First Round55% 69% 36%
Second Round28% 37% 17%
Sweet Sixteen8% 10% 4%
Elite Eight3% 4% 1%
Final Four1% 1% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Home) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 12
Quad 24 - 39 - 15
Quad 33 - 012 - 15
Quad 46 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 241 Bethune-Cookman W 95 - 90 OT 97% +1  61% 1 - 0 C- -2 B +7 C- B B- F+ -10 F B D+
 Thu, Nov 6 162 Merrimack W 95 - 57 94% +18  92% 2 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +23 B+ A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ B- C
 Tue, Nov 11 230 Wofford W 93 - 62 97% +19  95% 3 - 0 A+ +24 A- +10 B A+ C A+ +14 A- B+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 6 Houston L 72 - 73 23% -3  11% 3 - 1 A +21 A- +11 C+ B+ A+ A +11 B A- B+
 Wed, Nov 19 332 Jackson St. W 112 - 66 99% +26  94% 4 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +20 A+ C- A- A- +8 C- C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 91 Oregon W 84 - 73 79% +3  75% 5 - 1 A- +17 A +12 C A+ A+ B +5 A- F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72 - 102 13% -21  3% 5 - 2 C- -3 A- +9 B C+ A+ F -12 B- F D
 Wed, Nov 26 20 St. John's W 85 - 74 38% +0  45% 6 - 2 A+ +29 A+ +24 A+ A+ B+ B+ +6 A F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 24 North Carolina St. W 83 - 73 56% +5  82% 7 - 2 A +23 A +12 A+ C F A+ +11 A- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 3 @Arizona L 68 - 97 12% -15  6% 7 - 3 C- -2 C+ +3 D A- D+ D+ -3 F+ C- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 282 Chattanooga W 92 - 78 97% +7  95% 8 - 3 B- +7 A +12 A+ A F D -5 C- C F
 Sat, Dec 20 8 Purdue L 60 - 88 25% -13  3% 8 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -3 C- F+ B+ D -5 D F A
 Mon, Dec 29 204 Queens W 106 - 65 96% +30  99% 9 - 4 A+ +35 A+ +17 A+ B- B- A+ +16 A+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 36 @Georgia L 100 - 104 OT 40% -1  26% 9 - 5 0 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +16 B+ B A- C- -2 D B C-
 Tue, Jan 6 35 Texas A&M L 88 - 90 62% +0  43% 9 - 6 0 - 2 B +9 A +13 C A+ B D+ -4 D- F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 17 Arkansas W 95 - 73 46% +15  93% 10 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +38 A+ +22 A+ A+ A- A+ +15 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 49 @Missouri L 74 - 84 52% -4  25% 10 - 7 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 C- A B- C -1 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 94 South Carolina W 71 - 67 87% +5  88% 11 - 7 2 - 3 B- +7 D+ -3 D F+ C A +9 B+ C- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 73 @Mississippi W 78 - 66 64% +5  86% 12 - 7 3 - 3 A+ +23 A +13 D A+ A A +11 A+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 4 @Florida W 76 - 67 14% +8  93% 13 - 7 4 - 3 A+ +35 A+ +20 A+ C+ B+ A+ +16 A- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 27 Texas W 88 - 82 58% -3  26% 14 - 7 5 - 3 A +18 A+ +23 A+ C+ A+ D+ -4 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 16 @Tennessee L 69 - 77 25% -8  0% 14 - 8 5 - 4 B+ +14 B +6 D+ A A- A- +7 B A A-
 Sat, Feb 7 19 Alabama L 92 - 96 47% +2  60% 14 - 9 5 - 5 B+ +11 A +14 A A- A+ C- -2 D+ D A+
 Tue, Feb 10 14 Vanderbilt L 76 - 84 45% -7  1% 14 - 10 5 - 6 B- +8 A +14 C A+ A+ D- -7 B F D
 Sat, Feb 14 17 @Arkansas L 75 - 88 25% -8  10% 14 - 11 5 - 7 B +9 A- +11 C B- A+ C- -3 D C+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 69 @Mississippi St. L 85 - 91 63% -7  12% 14 - 12 5 - 8 B- +5 A+ +19 C+ A+ B F -14 F B F
 Sat, Feb 21 25 Kentucky W 81 - 79 57%
 Tue, Feb 24 51 @Oklahoma W 82 - 81 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 73 Mississippi W 81 - 71 82%
 Tue, Mar 3 54 LSU W 84 - 77 75%
 Sat, Mar 7 19 @Alabama L 87 - 94 27%
Totals 17 - 14 8 - 10 +15 A +12 A+ B B B- +3 B B A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A B B B B 42% 28% 43% B B+ A C+ A- A- A B A B- B C C- C+ 36% 22% 42% C+ C+ B- C B- B- B- D+ C+
1.25 63% 43% 37% +5 +1 1.13 40% 1.1 .43 13% .40 76% .30 1.05 53% 38% 35% -1 0 0.99 28% 1.0 .28 19% .28 74% .29
Nov
3		 Bethune-Cookman B D+ A F+ D 54% 7% 39% A- C- A- C- B B- A+ C- A+ F+ D A+ F F 44% 21% 35% D+ F B B B D+ A+ F A+
1.19 52% 50% 29% -6 +3 0.96 40% 1.1 .44 14% .55 71% .39 1.13 64% 23% 50% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 16% .14 89% .12
Nov
6		 Merrimack A+ B+ A+ D- A- 34% 21% 45% C- B+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 31% 12% 57% B- A+ C+ B B- C F A D
1.41 63% 60% 29% +3 0 1.06 60% 1.2 .74 12% .62 73% .45 0.84 47% 17% 25% -14 +1 0.76 23% 0.9 .20 16% .42 71% .30
Nov
11		 Wofford A- C A+ B- B+ 35% 22% 44% D- B A+ D- A+ C C F D A+ C+ C+ A+ A- 40% 20% 40% B- A- A- B B+ B+ A+ F A+
1.31 58% 58% 38% +7 0 1.15 51% 1.0 .51 15% .30 67% .20 0.87 55% 36% 23% -8 0 0.85 22% 0.9 .19 18% .17 80% .14
Nov
16		 Houston A- D D+ C- C+ 36% 22% 42% C+ C+ A- C+ B+ A+ A+ D A+ A B- F A B+ 28% 33% 39% C+ B C A+ A- B+ B+ F+ B-
1.08 50% 30% 32% -6 0 0.89 35% 0.9 .33 12% .56 64% .36 1.09 60% 50% 29% +1 -2 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 15% .21 83% .18
Nov
19		 Jackson St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 5% 51% A- A+ D+ B- C- A- D- A- D+ A- B- D- C+ D 26% 39% 35% A+ C- F A C A+ F B- F+
1.48 88% 67% 43% +22 +2 1.51 32% 1.1 .36 12% .29 79% .23 0.87 50% 44% 31% -1 -3 0.93 33% 0.8 .27 29% .35 74% .26
Nov
24		 Oregon A A+ B- F C+ 34% 29% 38% C C C+ A+ A+ A+ A A- A+ B A F A A 24% 11% 64% B- A- F C+ F A+ F D- F
1.20 68% 44% 24% -1 -1 0.98 32% 1.3 .42 9% .36 83% .30 1.04 45% 60% 28% -7 0 0.89 48% 1.1 .52 26% .44 78% .35
Nov
25		 Michigan A- F F A+ B- 33% 23% 44% B+ B B D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ F B F D+ B 38% 5% 57% C+ B- D- F+ F D C+ F C-
1.01 35% 8% 43% -8 -1 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 11% .52 55% .29 1.44 57% 67% 38% +4 +2 1.14 44% 1.5 .67 13% .35 82% .29
Nov
26		 St. John's A+ A+ C A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% C+ A+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B A+ A A+ 44% 10% 46% D+ A F D+ F A+ F C- F
1.28 73% 36% 42% +10 0 1.22 48% 1.1 .52 18% .46 84% .38 1.11 52% 20% 27% -9 +2 0.88 45% 1.3 .57 21% .53 75% .40
Dec
3		 North Carolina St. A A+ F A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ C C+ C F A+ A+ A+ A+ C- B B A- 34% 16% 50% B- A- A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A
1.18 75% 25% 55% +21 +1 1.48 26% 1.0 .26 28% .44 86% .38 1.04 63% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 21% 0.6 .13 13% .21 85% .18
Dec
6		 Arizona C+ F+ F F D- 27% 29% 44% C+ D A+ C A- D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D F F F 46% 30% 25% C+ F+ B- D- C- B+ A+ C- A+
0.92 43% 27% 26% -13 -2 0.73 36% 0.8 .29 20% .42 80% .34 1.31 69% 65% 43% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.1 .41 17% .20 75% .15
Dec
13		 Chattanooga A A+ A+ A- A+ 16% 26% 58% F A+ A+ C- A F A+ B+ A+ D A+ F D D+ 33% 31% 35% A- C- A F C F D F F+
1.31 86% 55% 40% +14 -2 1.26 47% 1.1 .53 19% .65 78% .51 1.11 44% 53% 37% +2 -2 1.02 13% 1.8 .22 9% .31 85% .27
Dec
20		 Purdue D+ D+ A- F C- 29% 25% 45% C+ C- B+ F F+ B+ A B- A- D F F D D 35% 18% 47% D+ D C- F F A A+ F B
0.92 53% 46% 26% -5 -1 0.90 29% 0.5 .13 15% .29 69% .20 1.35 76% 56% 39% +13 0 1.29 39% 1.7 .65 17% .18 100% .18
Dec
29		 Queens A+ A F A+ A+ 38% 13% 48% C+ A+ A D- B- B- A+ D+ A A+ B A+ A+ A+ 55% 18% 27% D A+ B+ F C- B+ F D+ F
1.43 70% 14% 60% +20 +1 1.44 43% 0.9 .40 14% .47 70% .33 0.88 56% 22% 8% -15 +1 0.76 25% 1.3 .33 19% .45 78% .35
Jan
3		 Georgia A+ B A+ F B 47% 14% 40% A- B+ A+ D- B A- A+ C- A+ C- B- F D- D- 41% 14% 45% C D A+ F B C- F B F
1.21 59% 75% 26% +1 +1 1.07 48% 0.7 .35 16% .52 67% .35 1.26 58% 75% 38% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.3 .35 13% .49 71% .35
Jan
6		 Texas A&M A F A+ D C- 41% 12% 47% B+ C A+ A+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ D+ B+ F F F+ 37% 12% 52% B D- D+ F F A- C- A+ B-
1.20 45% 83% 30% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.3 .59 18% .52 74% .38 1.23 53% 83% 44% +11 +1 1.27 36% 1.3 .48 19% .34 65% .22
Jan
10		 Arkansas A+ A F A+ A+ 53% 11% 36% A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A D- A 35% 27% 38% A- A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ D+ B C-
1.33 68% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 2.0 .62 14% .39 71% .28 1.02 56% 29% 40% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.1 .25 15% .35 71% .25
Jan
14		 Missouri B- C- D D D+ 40% 19% 40% B+ C- A- B+ A B- A+ D+ A+ C F+ D F F 49% 12% 40% D- F A+ A- A+ C+ F C F
1.08 53% 33% 32% -5 0 0.94 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 71% .35 1.23 71% 40% 47% +15 +2 1.35 27% 1.0 .27 19% .56 68% .38
Jan
17		 South Carolina D+ B+ B- F F+ 52% 10% 38% A+ D C+ F F+ C A+ A- A+ A A C- C+ A- 42% 14% 44% D- B+ F+ A- C- A+ D A+ B-
1.02 64% 40% 11% -10 +2 0.88 30% 0.5 .16 16% .51 77% .39 0.96 48% 43% 32% -5 +1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 21% .36 65% .24
Jan
20		 Mississippi A A+ D F D- 40% 23% 38% B- D A+ B A+ A A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- C- A 13% 42% 44% A+ A+ A F B- F+ B+ D- B-
1.18 69% 33% 13% -8 0 0.85 42% 1.2 .48 14% .69 82% .56 1.00 14% 41% 35% -4 -5 0.85 22% 1.4 .30 9% .25 80% .20
Jan
24		 Florida A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ 50% 23% 27% A A+ B+ D+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C- A 43% 13% 45% B- A- B- A+ A+ B- F A+ D
1.16 58% 55% 31% +3 +1 1.08 27% 0.6 .17 14% .37 90% .34 1.02 55% 17% 33% -4 +1 0.96 41% 0.6 .27 17% .50 59% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Texas A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 12% 49% A A+ C B- C+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ B F F F 31% 16% 53% C F A+ B A+ B D+ D+ D
1.38 56% 60% 50% +14 +1 1.32 24% 1.0 .24 5% .64 74% .48 1.29 57% 71% 46% +14 0 1.31 29% 1.1 .33 17% .44 78% .34
Jan
31		 Tennessee B C+ F F D- 39% 11% 50% A- D+ B A+ A A- B+ B B+ A- F A+ D+ C+ 37% 37% 26% A+ B D+ A+ A A- F F F
1.01 57% 17% 22% -12 +1 0.81 29% 1.3 .37 15% .34 70% .24 1.12 75% 25% 36% +2 -2 1.02 49% 0.8 .37 22% .58 81% .47
Feb
7		 Alabama A A- A+ C- A 43% 14% 43% A A A C A- A+ B A+ A C- C A+ F D+ 44% 17% 39% C+ D+ A+ F D A+ D F F
1.23 64% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.10 38% 0.9 .35 7% .32 77% .24 1.29 63% 33% 48% +9 +1 1.22 25% 1.9 .46 19% .38 87% .33
Feb
10		 Vanderbilt A F F A+ D+ 51% 14% 35% A+ C A+ A A+ A+ A+ B A+ D- B- A+ F+ B+ 40% 14% 47% D+ B D+ F F D F F F
1.19 44% 0% 41% -9 +2 0.88 51% 1.2 .60 12% .48 78% .37 1.31 59% 17% 40% +2 +1 1.07 36% 1.4 .50 11% .53 87% .46
Feb
14		 Arkansas A- F B C C+ 38% 32% 30% D- C A F B- A+ A A A+ C- F A+ C- D 50% 15% 35% F+ D A F C+ F A- A A
1.12 45% 41% 31% -5 -2 0.89 38% 1.0 .38 10% .33 75% .25 1.32 81% 25% 37% +11 +2 1.28 27% 1.6 .42 7% .24 67% .16
Feb
18		 Mississippi St. A+ F D- A+ C+ 29% 25% 46% C+ C+ A+ A A+ B A+ A- A+ F F A F F 18% 31% 51% A+ F B+ C B F C+ F C-
1.26 33% 31% 42% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.2 .50 12% .52 81% .42 1.35 80% 29% 54% +16 -3 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 9% .28 76% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 2.6 3.9 7th
8th 0.2 6.5 1.2 7.8 8th
9th 3.1 9.9 0.2 13.3 9th
10th 0.0 2.1 16.2 6.3 0.0 24.7 10th
11th 0.0 2.8 18.8 16.0 1.0 38.7 11th
12th 0.1 3.7 3.3 0.1 7.3 12th
13th 0.5 1.2 0.1 1.8 13th
14th 0.4 0.1 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 1.0 7.9 24.4 35.7 25.1 5.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 5.9% 98.4% 3.0% 95.4% 6.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.4%
9-9 25.1% 92.7% 2.0% 90.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.5 5.8 6.2 4.5 1.3 1.8 92.6%
8-10 35.7% 71.5% 1.3% 70.2% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.2 6.8 12.3 0.3 10.2 71.1%
7-11 24.4% 27.7% 0.7% 27.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 4.5 0.8 0.0 17.7 27.2%
6-12 7.9% 4.3% 0.5% 3.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.5 3.8%
5-13 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.0 0.3%
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 61.7% 1.4% 60.4% 9.2 38.3 61.2%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.8 33.3 51.9 13.0 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 5.6 8.6 38.7 39.8 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 6.0 2.2 25.8 44.1 24.2 2.2 1.6
Lose Out 0.6%