Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.5 33
Results Rating +14.5 37
Pace 68.9 170
Improvement -1.3 232

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 13 B+ A- B+ A B
Defense B- 84 C+ B- B- B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 69 B 63% 70 +4.6 33
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 298 B+ 44% 40 -1.3 248
Three Pointers 42% 151 B- 36% 85 +2.3 99
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 55 B +4.4 51
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 39
Second Chance A 40.1% 7 C+ 1.06 124 A- 0.43 20
Turnovers B+ 13.6% 22
Freethrows A 0.40 5 B 76% 66 A 0.30 4
Total Offense A +11.1 13

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 139 C 10.6% 158
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 134 A- 1.6% 12
Three Pointers F+ 73% 353 C- 1.2% 261
Total C 55% 199 C+ 5.3% 146

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 261 B 53% 64 -3.2 75
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 111 C 38% 192 +0.7 244
Three Pointers 42% 152 C- 35% 230 +1.0 234
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 103 C+ -1.1 136
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 126
Second Chance B- 28.3% 96 C+ 1.00 138 B- 0.28 94
Turnovers B- 18.8% 69
Freethrows B- 0.27 84 D+ 74% 281 B- 0.20 106
Total Defense B- +3.4 84

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 63 A- 17.1% 29
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 177 B- 6.5% 82
Three Pointers B 79% 44 C+ 1.1% 126
Total B- 51% 90 B+ 8.1% 31

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 70 18.6 334
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 41 0.14 64
Improvement -0.7 #227 -0.6 #226

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 41 33 25
Results Rating Rank 46 36 26
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 10 - 8
Conference Finish 11 10 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None 10 6
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 1% 0%
Top 6 Seed 6% 10% 2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74% 87% 59%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74% 86% 59%
Average Seed 9.2 8.8 10.0
.500 or above 98% 100% 97%
.500 or above in Conference 46% 72% 15%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four23% 17% 30%
First Round65% 80% 47%
Second Round33% 43% 22%
Sweet Sixteen9% 11% 6%
Elite Eight3% 4% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 12
Quad 24 - 310 - 14
Quad 33 - 013 - 15
Quad 46 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 240 Bethune-Cookman W 95 - 90 OT 97% +1  61% 1 - 0 C- -2 B +6 C- B B- F+ -9 F B+ D+
 Thu, Nov 6 160 Merrimack W 95 - 57 94% +18  92% 2 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +23 B+ A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ B- C
 Tue, Nov 11 238 Wofford W 93 - 62 97% +19  95% 3 - 0 A+ +24 A- +10 B- A+ C A+ +13 A- B+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 6 Houston L 72 - 73 23% -3  11% 3 - 1 A +21 A- +11 C+ B+ A+ A +10 B A B+
 Wed, Nov 19 337 Jackson St. W 112 - 66 99% +26  94% 4 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +20 A+ C- B+ A- +8 C- C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 89 Oregon W 84 - 73 78% +3  75% 5 - 1 A- +17 A +12 C+ A+ A+ B +5 A- F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72 - 102 13% -21  3% 5 - 2 C- -3 B+ +9 B C+ A+ F -12 B- F D
 Wed, Nov 26 19 St. John's W 85 - 74 36% +0  45% 6 - 2 A+ +29 A+ +24 A+ A+ A- B+ +6 A F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 24 North Carolina St. W 83 - 73 57% +5  82% 7 - 2 A +23 A +12 A+ C F A +11 A- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 3 @Arizona L 68 - 97 12% -15  6% 7 - 3 C -1 C+ +3 D B+ D+ D+ -3 F C- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 274 Chattanooga W 92 - 78 96% +7  95% 8 - 3 B- +8 A +13 A+ A+ F D -5 C- C F
 Sat, Dec 20 7 Purdue L 60 - 88 25% -13  3% 8 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -3 C- F+ B+ D -5 D F A
 Mon, Dec 29 212 Queens W 106 - 65 96% +30  99% 9 - 4 A+ +35 A+ +17 A+ B- B- A+ +16 A+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 3 32 @Georgia L 100 - 104 OT 38% -1  26% 9 - 5 0 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +16 B+ B A- C -1 D B C-
 Tue, Jan 6 34 Texas A&M L 88 - 90 62% +0  43% 9 - 6 0 - 2 B +9 A +13 C+ A+ B- D+ -4 D- F A
 Sat, Jan 10 17 Arkansas W 95 - 73 46% +15  93% 10 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +21 A+ A+ A- A+ +16 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 49 @Missouri L 74 - 84 52% -4  25% 10 - 7 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 C- A- B- C -1 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 92 South Carolina W 71 - 67 86% +5  88% 11 - 7 2 - 3 B- +7 D+ -3 D F C A +10 B+ C- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 72 @Mississippi W 78 - 66 64% +5  86% 12 - 7 3 - 3 A +23 A +13 D A+ A A +10 A+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 4 @Florida W 76 - 67 13% +8  93% 13 - 7 4 - 3 A+ +36 A+ +20 A+ C+ B+ A+ +16 A A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 29 Texas W 88 - 82 60% -3  26% 14 - 7 5 - 3 A +18 A+ +22 A+ C+ A+ D+ -4 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 15 @Tennessee L 69 - 77 24% -8  0% 14 - 8 5 - 4 B+ +14 B +7 D+ A A- A- +7 B A A-
 Sat, Feb 7 18 Alabama L 92 - 96 47% +2  60% 14 - 9 5 - 5 B+ +11 A +14 A+ A- A+ C- -2 D+ D A+
 Tue, Feb 10 16 Vanderbilt L 76 - 84 46% -7  1% 14 - 10 5 - 6 B- +8 A+ +14 C A+ A+ D- -8 B F D
 Sat, Feb 14 17 @Arkansas L 75 - 88 25% -8  10% 14 - 11 5 - 7 B +8 A- +10 C B- A+ C- -2 D C+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 74 @Mississippi St. L 85 - 91 65% -7  12% 14 - 12 5 - 8 C+ +5 A+ +18 C+ A+ B F -14 F B F
 Sat, Feb 21 25 Kentucky W 75 - 74 57% -0  45% 15 - 12 6 - 8 B+ +14 B- +5 B B+ B- A +9 B+ C+ A
 Tue, Feb 24 52 @Oklahoma W 82 - 81 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 72 Mississippi W 81 - 71 82%
 Tue, Mar 3 53 LSU W 83 - 76 75%
 Sat, Mar 7 18 @Alabama L 87 - 94 26%
Totals 17 - 14 8 - 10 +15 A +11 A+ B B B- +3 B- B A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A B B+ B- B 43% 27% 42% B B+ A C+ A- B+ A B A B- B C C- C+ 36% 22% 42% C+ C+ B- C+ B- B- B- D+ B-
1.25 63% 44% 36% +4 +1 1.13 40% 1.1 .43 14% .40 76% .30 1.04 53% 38% 35% -1 0 0.99 28% 1.0 .28 19% .27 74% .29
Nov
3		 Bethune-Cookman B D+ A F+ D 54% 7% 39% A- C- A- C- B B- A+ C- A+ F+ D A+ F F 44% 21% 35% D+ F B B+ B+ D+ A+ F A+
1.19 52% 50% 29% -6 +3 0.96 40% 1.1 .44 14% .55 71% .39 1.13 64% 23% 50% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 16% .14 89% .12
Nov
6		 Merrimack A+ B+ A+ D- A- 34% 21% 45% C- B+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 31% 12% 57% B- A+ C+ B B- C F A D
1.41 63% 60% 29% +3 0 1.06 60% 1.2 .74 12% .62 73% .45 0.84 47% 17% 25% -14 +1 0.76 23% 0.9 .20 16% .42 71% .30
Nov
11		 Wofford A- C A+ B- B+ 35% 22% 44% D- B- A+ D- A+ C C F D A+ C+ C+ A+ A- 40% 20% 40% B A- A- B B+ B+ A+ F A+
1.31 58% 58% 38% +7 0 1.15 51% 1.0 .51 15% .30 67% .20 0.87 55% 36% 23% -9 0 0.85 22% 0.9 .19 18% .17 80% .14
Nov
16		 Houston A- D D+ C- C+ 36% 22% 42% C+ C+ A- C B+ A+ A+ D A+ A B- F A B 28% 33% 39% C+ B C+ A+ A B+ B+ D- B
1.08 50% 30% 32% -6 0 0.89 35% 0.9 .33 12% .56 64% .36 1.09 60% 50% 29% +1 -2 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 15% .21 83% .18
Nov
19		 Jackson St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 5% 51% A- A+ D B- C- B+ D- B+ D A- B- D- C+ D 26% 39% 35% A+ C- F A C- A+ F B- F+
1.48 88% 67% 43% +22 +2 1.51 32% 1.1 .36 12% .29 79% .23 0.87 50% 44% 31% -1 -3 0.93 33% 0.8 .27 29% .35 74% .26
Nov
24		 Oregon A A+ B- F C+ 34% 29% 38% C- C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A A A+ B A F A A 24% 11% 64% B- A- F C+ F A+ F D- F
1.20 68% 44% 24% -1 -1 0.98 32% 1.3 .42 9% .36 83% .30 1.04 45% 60% 28% -7 0 0.89 48% 1.1 .52 26% .44 78% .35
Nov
25		 Michigan B+ F F A+ B- 33% 23% 44% B+ B B D C+ A+ A+ F A+ F B F D B- 38% 5% 57% C+ B- D- D- F D B- F C-
1.01 35% 8% 43% -8 -1 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 11% .52 55% .29 1.44 57% 67% 38% +4 +2 1.14 44% 1.5 .67 13% .35 82% .29
Nov
26		 St. John's A+ A+ C A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ B+ B A+ A A+ 44% 10% 46% D+ A F D+ F A+ F C- F
1.28 73% 36% 42% +10 0 1.22 48% 1.1 .52 18% .46 84% .38 1.11 52% 20% 27% -9 +2 0.88 45% 1.3 .57 21% .53 75% .40
Dec
3		 North Carolina St. A A+ F A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ C C+ C F A+ A+ A+ A C- B B A- 34% 16% 50% B- A- A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A
1.18 75% 25% 55% +21 +1 1.48 26% 1.0 .26 28% .44 86% .38 1.04 63% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 21% 0.6 .13 13% .21 85% .18
Dec
6		 Arizona C+ F+ F F D- 27% 29% 44% C+ D A+ C- B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D F F F 46% 30% 25% C+ F B- D- C- B+ A+ C- A+
0.92 43% 27% 26% -13 -2 0.73 36% 0.8 .29 20% .42 80% .34 1.31 69% 65% 43% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.1 .41 17% .20 75% .15
Dec
13		 Chattanooga A A+ A+ A- A+ 16% 26% 58% F A+ A+ C A+ F A+ A- A+ D A+ F D D+ 33% 31% 35% A- C- A F C F D F F+
1.31 86% 55% 40% +14 -2 1.26 47% 1.1 .53 19% .65 78% .51 1.11 44% 53% 37% +2 -2 1.02 13% 1.8 .22 9% .31 85% .27
Dec
20		 Purdue D+ D+ A- F C- 29% 25% 45% C+ C- B+ F F+ B+ A B- A- D F F D D 35% 18% 47% D+ D C- F F A A+ F B
0.92 53% 46% 26% -5 -1 0.90 29% 0.5 .13 15% .29 69% .20 1.35 76% 56% 39% +13 0 1.29 39% 1.7 .65 17% .18 100% .18
Dec
29		 Queens A+ A F A+ A+ 38% 13% 48% C+ A+ A D- B- B- A+ D+ A A+ B A+ A+ A+ 55% 18% 27% D A+ B+ F C B+ F D+ F
1.43 70% 14% 60% +20 +1 1.44 43% 0.9 .40 14% .47 70% .33 0.88 56% 22% 8% -15 +1 0.76 25% 1.3 .33 19% .45 78% .35
Jan
3		 Georgia A+ B- A+ F B 47% 14% 40% A- B+ A+ D- B A- A+ C- A+ C B- F D- D- 41% 14% 45% C+ D A+ F B C- F B F
1.21 59% 75% 26% +1 +1 1.07 48% 0.7 .35 16% .52 67% .35 1.26 58% 75% 38% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.3 .35 13% .49 71% .35
Jan
6		 Texas A&M A F A+ D C 41% 12% 47% A- C+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ C+ A+ D+ B+ F F F 37% 12% 52% B D- D+ F F A C- A+ B-
1.20 45% 83% 30% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.3 .59 18% .52 74% .38 1.23 53% 83% 44% +11 +1 1.27 36% 1.3 .48 19% .34 65% .22
Jan
10		 Arkansas A+ A F A+ A+ 53% 11% 36% A A+ B- A+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ A- A D- A+ 35% 27% 38% A A+ A+ A- A+ B+ D+ B C-
1.33 68% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 2.0 .62 14% .39 71% .28 1.02 56% 29% 40% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.1 .25 15% .35 71% .25
Jan
14		 Missouri B- C- D+ D D+ 40% 19% 40% B+ C- A- B A- B- A+ D A+ C F+ D+ F F 49% 12% 40% D- F A+ A- A+ C+ F C F
1.08 53% 33% 32% -5 0 0.94 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 71% .35 1.23 71% 40% 47% +14 +2 1.35 27% 1.0 .27 19% .56 68% .38
Jan
17		 South Carolina D+ B B- F F+ 52% 10% 38% A+ D C+ F F C A+ A- A+ A A C- C+ A 42% 14% 44% D- B+ F+ A- C- A+ D+ A+ B
1.02 64% 40% 11% -10 +2 0.88 30% 0.5 .16 16% .51 77% .39 0.96 48% 43% 32% -5 +1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 21% .36 65% .24
Jan
20		 Mississippi A A+ D F D- 40% 23% 38% B- D A+ B A+ A A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- C- A 13% 42% 44% A+ A+ A+ F B- F+ B+ D- B
1.18 69% 33% 13% -8 0 0.85 42% 1.2 .48 14% .69 82% .56 1.00 14% 41% 35% -4 -5 0.85 22% 1.4 .30 9% .25 80% .20
Jan
24		 Florida A+ B A+ D+ A+ 50% 23% 27% A A+ B+ D+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C A 43% 13% 45% B- A B- A+ A+ C+ F A+ D
1.16 58% 55% 31% +3 +1 1.08 27% 0.6 .17 14% .37 90% .34 1.02 55% 17% 33% -4 +1 0.96 41% 0.6 .27 17% .50 59% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Texas A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 12% 49% A A+ C B- C+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ B F F F 31% 16% 53% C+ F A+ B A+ B D+ D+ D
1.38 56% 60% 50% +14 +1 1.32 24% 1.0 .24 5% .64 74% .48 1.29 57% 71% 46% +14 0 1.31 29% 1.1 .33 17% .44 78% .34
Jan
31		 Tennessee B C+ F F D- 39% 11% 50% A- D+ B A+ A A- B+ B B+ A- F A+ D+ C+ 37% 37% 26% A+ B D+ A+ A A- F F F
1.01 57% 17% 22% -12 +1 0.81 29% 1.3 .37 15% .34 70% .24 1.12 75% 25% 36% +2 -2 1.02 49% 0.8 .37 22% .58 81% .47
Feb
7		 Alabama A A- A+ C- A 43% 14% 43% A A+ A C A- A+ B+ A+ A C- C A+ F D 44% 17% 39% C+ D+ A+ F D A+ D+ F F
1.23 64% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.10 38% 0.9 .35 7% .32 77% .24 1.29 63% 33% 48% +9 +1 1.22 25% 1.9 .46 19% .38 87% .33
Feb
10		 Vanderbilt A+ F F A+ D+ 51% 14% 35% A+ C A+ A A+ A+ A+ B A+ D- B- A+ F+ B+ 40% 14% 47% D+ B D+ F F D F F F
1.19 44% 0% 41% -9 +2 0.88 51% 1.2 .60 12% .48 78% .37 1.31 59% 17% 40% +2 +1 1.07 36% 1.4 .50 11% .53 87% .46
Feb
14		 Arkansas A- F B C C+ 38% 32% 30% D- C A F B- A+ A A- A+ C- F A+ C- D 50% 15% 35% D- D A F C+ F A A A
1.12 45% 41% 31% -5 -2 0.89 38% 1.0 .38 10% .33 75% .25 1.32 81% 25% 37% +11 +2 1.28 27% 1.6 .42 7% .24 67% .16
Feb
18		 Mississippi St. A+ F D- A+ C 29% 25% 46% C+ C+ A+ A A+ B A+ A- A+ F F A F F 18% 31% 51% A+ F B+ C+ B F C+ F C-
1.26 33% 31% 42% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.2 .50 12% .52 81% .42 1.35 80% 29% 54% +16 -3 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 9% .28 76% .21
Feb
21		 Kentucky B- C A+ F C+ 58% 8% 34% A+ B A+ C- B+ B- A+ A+ A+ A B D+ B A- 47% 20% 33% C- B+ F A+ C+ A B F C
1.06 55% 75% 24% -4 +3 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 16% .40 83% .33 1.05 57% 40% 31% -2 +1 1.00 46% 0.9 .41 20% .30 82% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.4 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 4.2 6.5 7th
8th 0.2 9.6 1.9 11.7 8th
9th 2.8 14.1 0.3 17.3 9th
10th 0.3 12.9 8.6 0.0 21.8 10th
11th 1.2 13.7 21.5 1.8 38.2 11th
12th 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 2.0 14.4 37.4 36.6 9.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 9.7% 98.8% 2.5% 96.3% 6.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
9-9 36.6% 92.8% 1.6% 91.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.3 7.3 8.6 7.6 3.9 0.0 2.6 92.7%
8-10 37.4% 70.8% 1.1% 69.7% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 5.2 15.1 1.2 10.9 70.4%
7-11 14.4% 27.8% 0.5% 27.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.7 0.7 0.0 10.4 27.4%
6-12 2.0% 4.2% 0.3% 3.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 3.9%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 74.0% 1.3% 72.7% 9.2 26.0 73.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.2 20.8 38.9 36.1 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 99.4% 5.6 2.2 6.7 32.6 44.9 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 6.2 3.6 15.0 42.0 33.2 5.5 0.7
Lose Out 0.7%