Auburn
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#27
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#30
Pace70.1#119
Improvement-0.4#241

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#47
First Shot+2.7#83
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#24
Layup/Dunks+2.8#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#265
Freethrows+0.7#122
Improvement+1.5#16

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#21
First Shot+7.8#11
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#229
Layups/Dunks+2.8#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#19
Freethrows-0.4#221
Improvement-1.9#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 4.9% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 12.2% 27.8% 8.2%
Top 6 Seed 36.8% 61.8% 30.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.7% 97.3% 87.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.8% 97.0% 86.7%
Average Seed 7.0 5.8 7.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 99.8% 96.8%
Conference Champion 2.3% 6.7% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.2% 1.5% 6.2%
First Round87.2% 96.6% 84.8%
Second Round54.2% 66.9% 50.9%
Sweet Sixteen22.8% 32.0% 20.5%
Elite Eight9.7% 13.0% 8.8%
Final Four3.9% 5.2% 3.5%
Championship Game1.5% 2.0% 1.3%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 20.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 7
Quad 27 - 310 - 9
Quad 37 - 017 - 10
Quad 44 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 122   George Mason W 70-52 88%     1 - 0 +17.9 -2.4 +20.2
  Nov 11, 2022 129   South Florida W 67-59 89%     2 - 0 +7.5 -7.1 +14.4
  Nov 15, 2022 244   Winthrop W 89-65 96%     3 - 0 +17.0 +14.2 +4.1
  Nov 18, 2022 314   Texas Southern W 72-56 98%     4 - 0 +5.1 -7.4 +11.6
  Nov 22, 2022 89   Bradley W 85-64 75%     5 - 0 +26.6 +17.4 +9.4
  Nov 23, 2022 50   Northwestern W 43-42 61%     6 - 0 +10.9 -16.7 +27.7
  Nov 27, 2022 79   Saint Louis W 65-60 80%     7 - 0 +8.9 -10.6 +19.3
  Dec 02, 2022 118   Colgate W 93-66 88%     8 - 0 +27.0 +18.9 +8.8
  Dec 10, 2022 38   Memphis L 73-82 55%     8 - 1 +2.4 -1.6 +4.9
  Dec 14, 2022 231   Georgia St. W 72-64 95%     9 - 1 +1.6 +1.3 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2022 44   @ USC L 71-74 48%     9 - 2 +10.2 +4.9 +5.4
  Dec 21, 2022 102   @ Washington W 84-61 71%     10 - 2 +30.1 +13.4 +16.0
  Dec 28, 2022 40   Florida W 61-58 66%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +11.5 +2.5 +9.3
  Jan 04, 2023 103   @ Georgia L 64-76 71%     11 - 3 1 - 1 -5.0 -2.7 -2.8
  Jan 07, 2023 18   Arkansas W 72-59 56%     12 - 3 2 - 1 +24.2 +9.5 +15.2
  Jan 10, 2023 95   @ Mississippi W 82-73 69%     13 - 3 3 - 1 +16.7 +15.2 +1.6
  Jan 14, 2023 55   Mississippi St. W 69-63 72%     14 - 3 4 - 1 +12.8 +3.1 +9.6
  Jan 18, 2023 106   @ LSU W 67-49 73%     15 - 3 5 - 1 +24.6 +5.4 +21.2
  Jan 21, 2023 229   @ South Carolina W 81-66 89%     16 - 3 6 - 1 +14.3 +8.1 +6.2
  Jan 25, 2023 42   Texas A&M L 63-79 68%     16 - 4 6 - 2 -8.1 -3.3 -5.6
  Jan 28, 2023 23   @ West Virginia L 77-80 37%     16 - 5 +13.3 +10.4 +2.9
  Feb 01, 2023 103   Georgia W 94-73 85%     17 - 5 7 - 2 +22.5 +29.3 -5.2
  Feb 04, 2023 3   @ Tennessee L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 07, 2023 42   @ Texas A&M L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 11, 2023 2   Alabama L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 14, 2023 46   Missouri W 81-75 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 97   @ Vanderbilt W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 22, 2023 95   Mississippi W 73-62 85%    
  Feb 25, 2023 32   @ Kentucky L 69-71 41%    
  Mar 01, 2023 2   @ Alabama L 71-80 19%    
  Mar 04, 2023 3   Tennessee L 65-68 39%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 6.1 3.9 0.3 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 11.8 6.5 0.4 22.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 10.5 8.0 0.6 20.5 4th
5th 0.2 6.3 9.3 1.4 0.0 17.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 8.0 2.5 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.5 4.5 3.2 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.3 2.4 9.1 19.2 25.8 23.0 13.5 5.5 1.2 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 73.7% 0.9    0.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 20.7% 1.1    0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.2% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 2.5 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.5% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 3.7 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.5% 99.9% 9.4% 90.5% 4.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.7 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 23.0% 99.2% 8.7% 90.5% 6.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.8 7.2 6.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.1%
11-7 25.8% 95.6% 7.3% 88.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 7.2 7.4 4.7 1.6 0.1 1.1 95.3%
10-8 19.2% 83.7% 6.7% 77.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 5.3 5.0 1.6 0.0 3.1 82.5%
9-9 9.1% 58.9% 5.6% 53.3% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.0 0.1 3.8 56.4%
8-10 2.4% 20.9% 4.8% 16.1% 11.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 16.9%
7-11 0.3% 3.9% 3.9% 13.0 0.0 0.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 89.7% 7.9% 81.7% 7.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 7.4 11.3 13.3 15.7 12.8 11.2 8.9 4.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.3 88.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 45.0 40.0 15.0
Lose Out 0.3% 3.9% 13.0 3.9