Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.5 #25
Expected Predictive Rating +16.3 #25
Pace 69.6 #161
Improvement +2.0 #90

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #14 B+ B+ B A+ B-
Defense #52 C+ C B B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #95 1.31 #35 +5.1 #30
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #264 0.89 #38 -0.5 #202
Three Pointers 42% #160 1.07 #111 +1.5 #129
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #37 +6.1 #36
Freethrows 0.41 #3 75% #83 0.31 #3
Second Chance 39.0% #12 1.07 #141 0.42 #33
Turnovers 13.9% #39
Total Offense +10.3 #14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #251 1.04 #52 +3.5 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #128 0.82 #285 -1.2 #283
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.00 #157 -0.1 #179
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #112 +2.2 #113
Freethrows 0.26 #67 72% #173 0.19 #76
Second Chance 29.4% #131 1.04 #177 0.31 #148
Turnovers 18.6% #63
Total Defense +5.2 #52

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #83 -0.7% #110
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.2% #38 -3.6% #113
Possession Length 16.3 #78 18.2 #308
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #34 0.15 #117
Improvement -0.9 #228 +2.9 #37

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 13.6% 17.0% 7.1%
Top 6 Seed 48.8% 56.1% 35.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.9% 96.1% 86.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.5% 95.8% 86.4%
Average Seed 6.6 6.3 7.2
.500 or above 98.4% 99.4% 96.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 88.7% 68.1%
Conference Champion 3.8% 5.3% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four5.1% 3.5% 8.1%
First Round90.8% 94.7% 83.5%
Second Round62.2% 66.8% 53.5%
Sweet Sixteen23.9% 26.7% 18.6%
Elite Eight8.9% 10.0% 6.7%
Final Four3.2% 3.8% 2.1%
Championship Game1.1% 1.4% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Texas (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 11
Quad 25 - 213 - 13
Quad 31 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 248 Bethune-Cookman W 95 - 90 OT 97% +1  1 - 0 -3 +7 D+ B- C+ -11 F B C
 Thu, Nov 6 205 Merrimack W 95 - 57 97% +18  2 - 0 +32 +24 B A+ A+ +9 A+ C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 211 Wofford W 93 - 62 97% +19  3 - 0 +25 +13 B A+ C +11 B+ A- B+
 Sun, Nov 16 4 Houston L 72 - 73 29% -3  3 - 1 +20 +13 C+ B- A+ +7 B- A+ B
 Wed, Nov 19 336 Jackson St. W 112 - 66 99% +26  4 - 1 +32 +24 A+ C- A- +4 C- D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 72 Oregon W 84 - 73 77% +3  5 - 1 +19 +15 C A A+ +4 A- F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72 - 102 19% -21  5 - 2 -5 +11 B C A+ -16 B+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 26 21 St. John's W 85 - 74 44% +2  6 - 2 +28 +25 A+ A+ B+ +4 A F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 24 North Carolina St. W 83 - 73 60% +5  7 - 2 +23 +15 A+ C F +8 A- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 2 @Arizona L 68 - 97 14% -15  7 - 3 -2 +5 D B+ D+ -5 D- C- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 257 Chattanooga W 92 - 78 96% +7  8 - 3 +9 +16 A A F -7 C C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 8 Purdue L 60 - 88 32% -13  8 - 4 -8 -2 C- F+ B- -8 D+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 186 Queens W 106 - 65 96% +30  9 - 4 +36 +21 A+ B C+ +13 A+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 3 28 @Georgia L 100 - 104 OT 41% -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +14 +20 A- B- B+ -6 D- B C-
 Tue, Jan 6 30 Texas A&M L 88 - 90 65% +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +10 +16 C+ A+ B -7 F+ F A
 Sat, Jan 10 19 Arkansas W 95 - 73 55% +15  10 - 6 1 - 2 +36 +24 A+ A+ A +12 A A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 54 @Missouri L 74 - 84 60% -4  10 - 7 1 - 3 +3 +8 C- B+ C+ -5 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 78 South Carolina W 71 - 67 85% +5  11 - 7 2 - 3 +9 +0 D+ D- C- +8 B+ C A+
 Tue, Jan 20 64 @Mississippi W 78 - 66 64% +5  12 - 7 3 - 3 +24 +16 D+ A+ A +8 A B- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 10 @Florida W 76 - 67 25% +8  13 - 7 4 - 3 +32 +20 A+ C+ B +13 B+ A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 32 Texas W 82 - 78 65%
 Sat, Jan 31 20 @Tennessee L 72 - 77 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 16 Alabama W 88 - 87 52%
 Tue, Feb 10 12 Vanderbilt L 81 - 82 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 19 @Arkansas L 82 - 87 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 85 @Mississippi St. W 80 - 74 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 27 Kentucky W 79 - 76 63%
 Tue, Feb 24 52 @Oklahoma W 80 - 78 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 64 Mississippi W 80 - 70 82%
 Tue, Mar 3 41 LSU W 82 - 76 71%
 Sat, Mar 7 16 @Alabama L 85 - 90 31%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 8 +15 +10 B+ B+ B +5 C+ C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.9 1.3 0.3 3.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 5.1 1.1 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.3 5.5 3.8 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 7.5 0.8 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 7.2 4.3 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 3.4 7.9 0.8 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 7.1 3.5 0.0 11.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.4 5.7 0.5 0.0 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.6 1.9 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.2 2.3 1.7 0.1 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.2 2.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.4 11.0 18.9 21.9 19.8 12.8 6.0 1.8 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 96.9% 0.3    0.3 0.1
14-4 72.2% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 30.8% 1.9    0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 1.8% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 3.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.0% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 4.1 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.8% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 4.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.8% 99.9% 6.0% 93.9% 5.7 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.7 7.3 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 21.9% 99.4% 4.0% 95.4% 6.6 0.1 0.6 2.8 6.7 7.5 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 18.9% 97.5% 2.6% 94.8% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.0 5.5 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.5 97.4%
8-10 11.0% 85.8% 1.5% 84.2% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.1 2.8 1.6 85.5%
7-11 5.4% 43.4% 1.2% 42.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 42.8%
6-12 1.6% 8.2% 0.9% 7.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 7.3%
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.9% 5.6% 87.3% 6.6 7.1 92.5%