Auburn
Southeastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.2#5
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#16
Pace71.9#88
Improvement+1.5#115

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#13
First Shot+6.5#32
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#20
Layup/Dunks+4.6#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#160
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#220
Freethrows+2.9#28
Improvement-0.2#189

Defense
Total Defense+9.8#5
First Shot+9.5#3
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#161
Layups/Dunks+4.5#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#17
Freethrows+0.7#141
Improvement+1.6#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 3.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 15.8% 31.6% 5.6%
Top 2 Seed 45.9% 73.7% 27.9%
Top 4 Seed 94.6% 99.3% 91.5%
Top 6 Seed 99.6% 100.0% 99.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 2.7 2.0 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 24.9% 58.1% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round95.6% 97.2% 94.6%
Sweet Sixteen72.2% 75.5% 70.1%
Elite Eight44.8% 50.5% 41.1%
Final Four25.8% 29.9% 23.2%
Championship Game14.1% 16.8% 12.4%
National Champion7.5% 8.9% 6.5%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 39.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 5
Quad 28 - 213 - 7
Quad 36 - 020 - 7
Quad 45 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 17   Baylor L 82-88 66%     0 - 1 +8.9 +5.6 +3.8
  Nov 10, 2023 292   SE Louisiana W 86-71 99%     1 - 1 +5.5 +4.2 +0.4
  Nov 16, 2023 124   Notre Dame W 83-59 93%     2 - 1 +26.9 +16.1 +10.9
  Nov 17, 2023 87   St. Bonaventure W 77-60 88%     3 - 1 +23.5 +9.6 +14.5
  Nov 21, 2023 337   Alabama A&M W 84-54 99%     4 - 1 +15.4 +4.0 +10.4
  Nov 29, 2023 57   Virginia Tech W 74-57 88%     5 - 1 +23.6 +3.1 +20.5
  Dec 03, 2023 89   @ Appalachian St. L 64-69 83%     5 - 2 +4.0 +3.6 -0.1
  Dec 09, 2023 99   Indiana W 104-76 89%     6 - 2 +33.6 +28.3 +3.7
  Dec 13, 2023 156   UNC Asheville W 87-62 95%     7 - 2 +25.3 +13.9 +11.6
  Dec 17, 2023 96   USC W 91-75 93%     8 - 2 +19.1 +14.9 +3.3
  Dec 22, 2023 321   Alabama St. W 82-62 99%     9 - 2 +7.7 +1.8 +4.4
  Dec 30, 2023 146   Chattanooga W 101-66 96%     10 - 2 +33.6 +24.3 +8.8
  Jan 02, 2024 214   Penn W 88-68 98%     11 - 2 +14.3 +12.9 +2.0
  Jan 06, 2024 101   @ Arkansas W 83-51 85%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +40.0 +12.8 +26.7
  Jan 09, 2024 58   Texas A&M W 66-55 88%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +17.5 -3.4 +21.0
  Jan 13, 2024 73   LSU W 93-78 91%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +19.5 +15.2 +3.2
  Jan 17, 2024 175   @ Vanderbilt W 80-65 94%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +17.1 +14.7 +3.5
  Jan 20, 2024 69   Mississippi W 82-59 90%     16 - 2 5 - 0 +28.4 +14.2 +15.4
  Jan 24, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 75-79 44%     16 - 3 5 - 1 +16.7 +2.4 +14.6
  Jan 27, 2024 27   @ Mississippi St. L 58-64 64%     16 - 4 5 - 2 +9.5 -2.9 +12.2
  Jan 31, 2024 175   Vanderbilt W 81-54 97%     17 - 4 6 - 2 +23.6 +4.2 +18.6
  Feb 03, 2024 69   @ Mississippi W 91-77 79%     18 - 4 7 - 2 +24.9 +23.3 +1.9
  Feb 07, 2024 7   Alabama W 99-81 65%     19 - 4 8 - 2 +33.2 +19.2 +12.3
  Feb 10, 2024 23   @ Florida L 65-81 62%     19 - 5 8 - 3 +0.0 -2.7 +2.8
  Feb 14, 2024 54   South Carolina W 101-61 87%     20 - 5 9 - 3 +46.8 +33.9 +13.7
  Feb 17, 2024 15   Kentucky L 59-70 74%     20 - 6 9 - 4 +1.5 -8.3 +9.3
  Feb 24, 2024 77   @ Georgia W 97-76 81%     21 - 6 10 - 4 +30.8 +31.8 -0.3
  Feb 28, 2024 6   @ Tennessee L 73-76 39%    
  Mar 02, 2024 27   Mississippi St. W 77-68 81%    
  Mar 05, 2024 127   @ Missouri W 81-67 90%    
  Mar 09, 2024 77   Georgia W 83-68 92%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 4.1 20.8 24.9 1st
2nd 0.9 28.5 6.6 36.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 11.7 18.2 30.1 3rd
4th 0.9 5.7 0.1 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 0.5 1.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 2.7 18.8 50.9 27.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 75.8% 20.8    5.3 13.0 2.6
13-5 8.0% 4.1    0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 24.9% 24.9 5.3 13.4 4.2 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 27.5% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 1.7 11.5 12.9 2.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 50.9% 99.9% 21.5% 78.5% 2.8 4.2 15.6 20.7 9.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 18.8% 99.9% 19.7% 80.1% 3.6 0.2 1.6 6.2 8.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 2.7% 99.3% 17.2% 82.2% 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
10-8 0.1% 90.1% 9.9% 80.3% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.1%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 21.8% 78.1% 2.7 15.8 30.0 30.0 18.7 4.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 27.5% 100.0% 1.7 41.8 46.9 10.6 0.7 0.0
Lose Out 0.1% 90.1% 7.7 2.8 11.3 22.5 33.8 15.5 4.2