Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#201
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#228
Pace69.4#154
Improvement+0.3#179

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#213
First Shot-0.9#199
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#202
Layup/Dunks-3.2#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#262
Freethrows+0.9#102
Improvement-1.5#270

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#213
First Shot-1.4#218
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#176
Layups/Dunks-4.5#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#44
Freethrows-2.3#313
Improvement+1.8#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.4% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.6% 65.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 1.4%
First Round1.4% 2.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 31 - 42 - 10
Quad 49 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 131   @ Belmont L 87-89 24%     0 - 1 +2.9 +7.5 -4.4
  Nov 11, 2023 299   @ Western Michigan W 77-70 59%     1 - 1 +2.2 +6.0 -3.5
  Nov 17, 2023 314   Northern Illinois L 64-70 81%     1 - 2 -17.8 -17.0 -0.7
  Nov 19, 2023 229   Arkansas Little Rock W 88-77 64%     2 - 2 +4.9 +12.5 -7.4
  Nov 22, 2023 229   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 93-90 OT 43%     3 - 2 +2.3 +0.7 +1.1
  Nov 25, 2023 112   @ Charlotte L 57-65 19%     3 - 3 -1.3 -7.1 +5.0
  Dec 02, 2023 251   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-88 47%     3 - 4 -12.6 -1.1 -11.2
  Dec 09, 2023 228   @ Mercer L 60-64 43%     3 - 5 -4.6 -3.4 -1.8
  Dec 16, 2023 22   @ BYU L 54-86 5%     3 - 6 -15.7 -11.8 -5.1
  Dec 30, 2023 142   Arkansas St. W 91-90 44%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +0.0 +13.8 -13.8
  Jan 04, 2024 202   @ Southern Miss L 73-79 39%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -5.8 -6.6 +1.4
  Jan 06, 2024 209   @ South Alabama W 90-76 40%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +13.9 +13.4 +0.1
  Jan 11, 2024 271   Old Dominion W 77-70 71%     6 - 7 3 - 1 -1.1 +2.6 -3.7
  Jan 13, 2024 286   Georgia Southern W 90-62 73%     7 - 7 4 - 1 +18.9 +5.6 +11.9
  Jan 17, 2024 89   @ Appalachian St. L 68-76 14%     7 - 8 4 - 2 +1.0 +3.0 -2.1
  Jan 20, 2024 286   @ Georgia Southern L 70-86 54%     7 - 9 4 - 3 -19.6 -7.6 -11.8
  Jan 24, 2024 226   @ Marshall L 68-77 43%     7 - 10 4 - 4 -9.6 -5.5 -3.8
  Jan 27, 2024 308   @ Coastal Carolina L 83-85 OT 61%     7 - 11 4 - 5 -7.4 -4.1 -3.1
  Feb 01, 2024 89   Appalachian St. L 71-81 28%     7 - 12 4 - 6 -6.5 +0.0 -6.3
  Feb 03, 2024 128   Troy L 74-78 41%     7 - 13 4 - 7 -4.3 +2.1 -6.4
  Feb 07, 2024 137   @ Louisiana W 78-69 25%     8 - 13 5 - 7 +13.7 +7.5 +6.1
  Feb 10, 2024 247   Miami (OH) W 73-53 67%     9 - 13 +13.1 +1.3 +12.9
  Feb 15, 2024 65   @ James Madison L 63-83 10%     9 - 14 5 - 8 -8.6 -1.2 -8.3
  Feb 17, 2024 271   @ Old Dominion W 68-65 50%     10 - 14 6 - 8 +0.4 +3.0 -2.3
  Feb 21, 2024 308   Coastal Carolina W 72-71 79%     11 - 14 7 - 8 -9.9 -9.0 -1.0
  Feb 24, 2024 216   Texas St. L 59-68 62%     11 - 15 7 - 9 -14.8 -12.7 -2.2
  Feb 28, 2024 65   James Madison L 71-79 22%    
  Mar 01, 2024 226   Marshall W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 8.2 8.2 6th
7th 53.0 6.4 59.3 7th
8th 9.7 3.9 13.7 8th
9th 14.6 14.6 9th
10th 4.2 4.2 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 28.5 56.9 14.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 14.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.1 0.3 14.2
8-10 56.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1 55.8
7-11 28.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 28.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 1.8 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.6% 2.7% 15.8 0.4 2.2
Lose Out 28.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5