James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #221
Expected Predictive Rating -4.1 #229
Pace 64.4 #296
Improvement +1.2 #130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #156 C C C C- C+
Defense #281 C C F+ D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.15 #180 -0.7 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #265 0.64 #333 -2.4 #298
Three Pointers 46% #76 1.04 #135 +3.1 #75
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #182 -0.1 #181
Freethrows 0.29 #225 69% #290 0.20 #249
Second Chance 28.6% #242 1.08 #103 0.31 #185
Turnovers 17.3% #198
Total Offense +0.3 #156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #155 1.10 #104 +0.5 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #264 0.68 #57 +1.6 #64
Three Pointers 42% #133 1.07 #248 -1.8 #267
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #168 +0.4 #168
Freethrows 0.36 #316 73% #234 0.26 #319
Second Chance 31.2% #205 1.01 #156 0.31 #179
Turnovers 12.4% #360
Total Defense -3.6 #281

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #129 0.8% #240
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.0% #190 -1.5% #154
Possession Length 18.3 #288 17.2 #181
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #251 0.16 #145
Improvement -1.2 #256 +2.5 #54

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 33.0% 48.4% 17.5%
.500 or above in Conference 23.8% 25.5% 22.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 815 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 63 @Akron L 71 - 85 9% -0  0 - 1 -2 -0 C D- F -2 A+ D+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 364 Coppin St. W 84 - 70 96% +13  1 - 1 -10 -0 C F C -9 C- F B
 Wed, Nov 12 261 @Longwood L 72 - 82 48% -8  1 - 2 -13 -1 D+ D B+ -11 B B F
 Sat, Nov 15 197 @LIU Brooklyn L 79 - 88 35% -10  1 - 3 -8 +1 B- D+ D+ -9 F A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 157 Towson W 81 - 75 49% +3  2 - 3 +3 +20 A+ F A+ -16 C- D- F
 Mon, Nov 24 180 @Florida International W 80 - 72 32% -1  3 - 3 +10 +11 F A+ A+ -1 B B+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 239 Nebraska Omaha W 88 - 77 55% +13  4 - 3 +6 +20 A+ A+ C+ -13 F D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 86 @George Mason L 66 - 82 12% -1  4 - 4 -7 +1 D- C+ A+ -9 F+ A D+
 Wed, Dec 3 342 NC Central W 67 - 62 86% +4  5 - 4 -10 -6 F D- B -3 B D- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 308 Norfolk St. W 68 - 67 79% +4  6 - 4 -11 -3 F C+ A -7 F C- A-
 Wed, Dec 17 260 @Old Dominion L 68 - 77 47% -6  6 - 5 0 - 1 -12 -2 C D- D- -10 C- A- F
 Sat, Dec 20 267 @Georgia Southern L 92 - 96 OT 49% +3  6 - 6 0 - 2 -7 +6 D- A- C+ -12 C B- F
 Mon, Dec 29 24 @Arkansas L 74 - 103 3% -17  6 - 7 -10 +8 A- C- D -17 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 170 @Arkansas St. W 78 - 74 29% -2  7 - 7 1 - 2 +6 +5 A- D F +2 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 154 Marshall L 64 - 66 49% -8  7 - 8 1 - 3 -5 -3 D- B- C- -3 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 260 Old Dominion W 70 - 69 70% -9  8 - 8 2 - 3 -8 -6 B- F+ F -2 B+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 172 @Appalachian St. L 65 - 80 30% -11  8 - 9 2 - 4 -13 +8 D- B- A- -24 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 154 @Marshall L 72 - 77 27% +0  8 - 10 2 - 5 -2 +2 C- A- D- -4 B+ D+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 201 South Alabama L 83 - 90 59% -2  8 - 11 2 - 6 -13 +3 B+ C- F -15 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 254 Texas St. W 82 - 57 68% +17  9 - 11 3 - 6 +17 +16 A B+ C+ +3 A- A F
 Thu, Jan 29 137 @Troy W 73 - 64 23% +1  10 - 11 4 - 6 +13 +6 B+ C D+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 243 @Southern Miss L 65 - 73 44% -5  10 - 12 4 - 7 -10 -4 F B- C+ -6 C C+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 295 Louisiana L 61 - 64 76% -1  10 - 13 4 - 8 -14 -1 C C+ C -14 C F+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 163 Toledo L 76 - 77 50%
 Thu, Feb 12 272 Georgia St. W 76 - 70 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 172 Appalachian St. W 67 - 66 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 241 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 272 @Georgia St. L 72 - 73 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 267 Georgia Southern W 81 - 75 71%
 Fri, Feb 27 241 Coastal Carolina W 73 - 69 65%
Totals 14 - 16 8 - 10 -3 +0 C C C -4 C C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 0.9 4th
5th 0.8 2.6 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 5.8 1.6 7.4 6th
7th 1.1 7.9 0.2 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 6.7 3.4 10.2 8th
9th 1.0 12.4 0.3 13.7 9th
10th 0.0 6.1 7.2 13.4 10th
11th 1.7 10.7 1.8 14.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 7.5 7.5 0.1 16.0 12th
13th 0.6 4.3 5.7 0.8 11.3 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.7 5.2 14.9 26.1 29.4 18.3 5.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 5.5% 5.1% 5.1% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3
9-9 18.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 18.0
8-10 29.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 29.1
7-11 26.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 26.1
6-12 14.9% 14.9
5-13 5.2% 5.2
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.7 42.9 47.6 9.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 0.5%