James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#96
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#146
Pace74.8#38
Improvement-2.6#357

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#142
First Shot+1.5#122
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#209
Layup/Dunks+5.1#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#276
Freethrows+2.3#38
Improvement-1.7#353

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#73
First Shot+2.8#85
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#91
Layups/Dunks+0.5#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#197
Freethrows+2.1#46
Improvement-0.9#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.2% 21.7% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 99.4% 95.0%
Conference Champion 10.9% 16.0% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round20.2% 21.7% 18.0%
Second Round3.6% 4.2% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Away) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 12 - 4
Quad 36 - 38 - 6
Quad 410 - 417 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 342   Hampton W 106-58 95%     1 - 0 +33.5 +16.8 +13.2
  Nov 12, 2022 183   @ Buffalo W 97-62 61%     2 - 0 +37.2 +4.8 +25.0
  Nov 15, 2022 269   @ Howard W 95-69 77%     3 - 0 +23.2 +15.1 +6.5
  Nov 20, 2022 26   @ North Carolina L 64-80 16%     3 - 1 -0.4 -6.5 +7.3
  Nov 26, 2022 200   South Dakota St. W 79-60 73%     4 - 1 +17.5 +5.2 +12.0
  Nov 27, 2022 267   Valparaiso L 79-81 OT 84%     4 - 2 -7.6 -3.5 -3.9
  Dec 02, 2022 193   Eastern Kentucky W 97-80 80%     5 - 2 +13.1 +14.4 -2.7
  Dec 06, 2022 16   @ Virginia L 50-55 13%     5 - 3 +11.9 -8.4 +19.7
  Dec 18, 2022 363   LIU Brooklyn W 115-79 98%     6 - 3 +15.0 +12.7 -4.3
  Dec 21, 2022 345   @ Coppin St. L 100-107 2OT 90%     6 - 4 -16.3 -6.5 -7.8
  Dec 29, 2022 231   @ Georgia St. W 63-47 71%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +15.1 -5.5 +21.0
  Dec 31, 2022 78   @ Marshall W 72-66 33%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +15.4 -1.1 +16.2
  Jan 05, 2023 209   Texas St. L 62-63 82%     8 - 5 2 - 1 -5.7 -7.0 +1.2
  Jan 07, 2023 179   Appalachian St. L 62-71 78%     8 - 6 2 - 2 -12.0 -11.3 -0.5
  Jan 12, 2023 182   @ South Alabama L 62-63 60%     8 - 7 2 - 3 +1.2 -7.5 +8.7
  Jan 14, 2023 227   Georgia Southern W 83-71 84%     9 - 7 3 - 3 +6.2 +6.3 -0.3
  Jan 19, 2023 149   @ Troy W 89-87 OT 55%     10 - 7 4 - 3 +5.7 +6.8 -1.4
  Jan 21, 2023 111   @ Southern Miss L 70-83 45%     10 - 8 4 - 4 -6.8 +7.0 -14.9
  Jan 26, 2023 246   Coastal Carolina W 75-69 87%     11 - 8 5 - 4 -1.1 -6.3 +5.0
  Jan 28, 2023 265   Louisiana Monroe W 58-45 89%     12 - 8 6 - 4 +4.8 -13.2 +19.1
  Feb 02, 2023 176   @ Old Dominion W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 04, 2023 179   @ Appalachian St. W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 09, 2023 227   @ Georgia Southern W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 11, 2023 246   @ Coastal Carolina W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 16, 2023 176   Old Dominion W 72-64 78%    
  Feb 18, 2023 112   Louisiana W 78-74 67%    
  Feb 22, 2023 78   Marshall W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 24, 2023 231   Georgia St. W 74-63 86%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.7 4.3 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 7.6 9.0 1.2 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.0 13.0 3.0 0.0 22.2 3rd
4th 0.1 4.1 13.9 5.3 0.1 23.5 4th
5th 0.9 7.3 4.2 0.2 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 3.6 0.3 6.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.2 0.5 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.5 15.8 25.0 26.8 17.9 5.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 77.9% 4.3    2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 32.0% 5.7    0.9 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.9    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 2.9 4.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 5.6% 31.1% 30.9% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 3.8 0.2%
13-5 17.9% 25.7% 25.7% 12.8 0.1 1.5 2.4 0.6 0.0 13.3
12-6 26.8% 21.7% 21.7% 13.1 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.4 0.1 21.0
11-7 25.0% 18.9% 18.9% 13.4 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 20.3
10-8 15.8% 14.5% 14.5% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 13.5
9-9 6.5% 12.2% 12.2% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 5.7
8-10 2.0% 10.5% 10.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8
7-11 0.4% 10.7% 10.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.5 3.6 8.9 5.6 1.4 0.1 79.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.6% 31.1% 12.1 0.0 6.1 16.4 8.2 0.4