James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#163
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#100
Pace76.5#40
Improvement-0.5#220

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#201
First Shot+2.1#121
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#329
Layup/Dunks+1.8#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#183
Freethrows-0.7#231
Improvement+1.4#51

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#134
First Shot+0.5#154
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#135
Layups/Dunks+0.4#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#147
Freethrows+1.7#83
Improvement-1.9#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 17.6% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 84.2% 93.8% 81.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.4% 81.9% 73.5%
Conference Champion 15.1% 19.8% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.8% 2.0%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round12.4% 17.4% 10.9%
Second Round1.1% 2.1% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Home) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 37 - 67 - 9
Quad 411 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 228   Old Dominion W 58-53 73%     1 - 0 -1.1 -16.2 +15.1
  Nov 16, 2021 160   @ Eastern Kentucky W 79-78 38%     2 - 0 +4.5 -4.8 +9.1
  Nov 19, 2021 115   George Mason W 67-64 50%     3 - 0 +3.2 -9.0 +12.1
  Nov 22, 2021 137   Kent St. L 69-74 43%     3 - 1 -3.0 -3.6 +0.6
  Nov 23, 2021 205   Wright St. W 78-76 58%     4 - 1 +0.1 -1.9 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2021 89   Murray St. L 62-74 29%     4 - 2 -5.9 -4.7 -1.7
  Nov 28, 2021 221   @ Florida Atlantic W 69-65 49%     5 - 2 +4.5 +2.1 +2.8
  Dec 07, 2021 40   Virginia L 58-65 23%    
  Dec 11, 2021 248   Radford W 72-64 76%    
  Dec 21, 2021 314   @ Morgan St. W 79-73 72%    
  Dec 28, 2021 189   @ Penn L 73-75 44%    
  Dec 31, 2021 164   @ Towson L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 03, 2022 161   @ Delaware L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 05, 2022 169   @ Drexel L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 09, 2022 133   Hofstra W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 11, 2022 148   Northeastern W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 15, 2022 332   @ William & Mary W 77-68 77%    
  Jan 17, 2022 273   @ Elon W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 20, 2022 283   UNC Wilmington W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 22, 2022 198   College of Charleston W 86-81 67%    
  Jan 27, 2022 169   Drexel W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 161   Delaware W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 03, 2022 148   @ Northeastern L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 133   @ Hofstra L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 10, 2022 273   Elon W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 332   William & Mary W 80-65 89%    
  Feb 17, 2022 198   @ College of Charleston L 83-84 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 283   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 164   Towson W 72-69 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 3.4 4.6 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 15.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 5.7 5.3 2.2 0.4 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.7 5.0 1.2 0.2 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.6 5.0 1.0 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.5 4.2 0.9 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.6 0.8 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.0 0.7 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.9 7.1 9.5 12.6 12.8 13.8 13.1 10.0 7.0 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
15-3 87.8% 3.2    2.6 0.6 0.0
14-4 65.5% 4.6    2.9 1.5 0.2
13-5 34.4% 3.4    1.1 1.8 0.5 0.0
12-6 10.5% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 9.0 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 73.8% 73.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 53.8% 53.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
16-2 1.7% 38.5% 36.2% 2.3% 12.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 3.7%
15-3 3.6% 24.9% 24.9% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.7
14-4 7.0% 25.9% 25.6% 0.3% 13.5 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.1 5.2 0.4%
13-5 10.0% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 7.7
12-6 13.1% 14.7% 14.7% 14.3 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 11.2
11-7 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 14.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 11.9
10-8 12.8% 9.9% 9.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 11.5
9-9 12.6% 5.7% 5.7% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 11.9
8-10 9.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.2 0.2 9.1
7-11 7.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.1 0.1 6.9
6-12 3.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.8
5-13 2.2% 2.2
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.6% 12.5% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 4.3 3.9 1.1 87.4 0.1%