Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#176
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#147
Pace62.8#317
Improvement-1.2#309

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#198
First Shot-0.9#214
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#160
Layup/Dunks+0.7#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#335
Freethrows+0.9#110
Improvement-1.3#332

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#154
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#309
Layups/Dunks+4.2#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#280
Freethrows-0.5#231
Improvement+0.1#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.2% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 75.4% 90.0% 65.0%
.500 or above in Conference 50.3% 69.9% 36.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round3.6% 4.1% 3.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 10
Quad 48 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 292   Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-65 81%     1 - 0 +9.3 +15.4 -4.8
  Nov 11, 2022 202   @ Drexel L 59-71 45%     1 - 1 -10.9 -8.0 -3.7
  Nov 17, 2022 49   Virginia Tech L 71-75 17%     1 - 2 +6.0 +6.8 -1.1
  Nov 18, 2022 87   Furman W 82-77 28%     2 - 2 +10.8 +6.0 +4.6
  Nov 20, 2022 123   Davidson L 61-66 39%     2 - 3 -2.4 -5.5 +2.7
  Nov 26, 2022 205   East Carolina W 71-50 66%     3 - 3 +16.5 -1.5 +18.8
  Nov 29, 2022 83   @ College of Charleston L 60-75 19%     3 - 4 -5.7 -4.8 -1.9
  Dec 03, 2022 203   Norfolk St. W 68-62 66%     4 - 4 +1.6 +0.5 +2.0
  Dec 07, 2022 305   William & Mary W 72-62 83%     5 - 4 -0.6 +1.4 -0.7
  Dec 10, 2022 192   Gardner-Webb W 44-43 64%     6 - 4 -2.9 -25.1 +22.2
  Dec 21, 2022 122   George Mason W 78-77 50%     7 - 4 +0.9 +12.7 -11.7
  Dec 29, 2022 311   Arkansas St. L 57-60 84%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -13.8 -10.2 -4.2
  Dec 31, 2022 112   Louisiana W 70-66 46%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +4.7 -3.2 +8.0
  Jan 05, 2023 149   @ Troy L 71-78 35%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -3.3 +2.2 -5.6
  Jan 07, 2023 227   @ Georgia Southern W 81-75 OT 50%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +5.7 +7.2 -1.6
  Jan 12, 2023 246   Coastal Carolina L 66-67 75%     9 - 7 2 - 3 -8.1 -7.7 -0.5
  Jan 14, 2023 78   @ Marshall L 65-73 18%     9 - 8 2 - 4 +1.4 -0.7 +1.7
  Jan 19, 2023 231   Georgia St. W 70-58 72%     10 - 8 3 - 4 +5.6 +1.2 +5.2
  Jan 21, 2023 179   Appalachian St. L 58-72 61%     10 - 9 3 - 5 -17.0 -2.3 -17.5
  Jan 26, 2023 182   @ South Alabama W 66-64 41%     11 - 9 4 - 5 +4.2 -3.4 +7.7
  Jan 28, 2023 246   @ Coastal Carolina W 60-59 56%     12 - 9 5 - 5 -0.7 -11.8 +11.2
  Feb 02, 2023 96   James Madison L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 04, 2023 227   Georgia Southern W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 09, 2023 231   @ Georgia St. W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 11, 2023 209   @ Texas St. L 61-62 46%    
  Feb 16, 2023 96   @ James Madison L 64-72 22%    
  Feb 18, 2023 179   @ Appalachian St. L 61-64 39%    
  Feb 22, 2023 111   Southern Miss L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 24, 2023 78   Marshall L 70-74 36%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 3.5 0.2 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 7.1 1.6 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.4 7.5 5.6 0.1 13.6 6th
7th 0.1 4.0 10.5 1.3 0.0 15.9 7th
8th 0.9 10.0 4.3 0.1 15.2 8th
9th 0.0 4.0 8.2 0.5 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 7.3 2.3 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.2 2.8 3.8 0.2 6.9 11th
12th 0.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 1.2 6.7 16.8 25.1 24.6 16.3 7.2 1.9 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 13.0% 13.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.9% 6.7% 6.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
11-7 7.2% 6.5% 6.5% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.7
10-8 16.3% 4.4% 4.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 15.6
9-9 24.6% 4.2% 4.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 23.6
8-10 25.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.0 0.6 0.1 24.4
7-11 16.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.1 0.3 16.4
6-12 6.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
5-13 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.6 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 13.0% 12.5 6.5 6.5
Lose Out 1.2% 2.4% 16.0 2.4