Old Dominion
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#228
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#268
Pace60.5#344
Improvement+0.8#109

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#261
First Shot-2.6#253
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#199
Layup/Dunks+1.4#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#345
Freethrows-0.4#213
Improvement+0.3#139

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#178
First Shot+2.7#95
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#326
Layups/Dunks+4.2#40
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#336
Freethrows+1.6#95
Improvement+0.5#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.5% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 12.6% 23.6% 10.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.0% 39.2% 29.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.2% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 6.4% 12.3%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 5
Quad 33 - 104 - 16
Quad 47 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 163   @ James Madison L 53-58 27%     0 - 1 -1.8 -16.9 +15.1
  Nov 15, 2021 253   Manhattan W 79-58 68%     1 - 1 +13.0 +13.8 +1.7
  Nov 18, 2021 174   Indiana St. L 36-77 40%     1 - 2 -41.5 -35.9 -7.3
  Nov 19, 2021 178   East Carolina L 60-73 42%     1 - 3 -13.9 -5.2 -10.6
  Nov 21, 2021 189   Penn L 63-71 43%     1 - 4 -9.3 -3.2 -7.1
  Nov 26, 2021 210   Longwood W 62-61 58%     2 - 4 -4.1 -2.6 -1.3
  Nov 30, 2021 178   @ East Carolina L 62-63 31%     2 - 5 +1.1 -4.7 +5.7
  Dec 04, 2021 115   @ George Mason L 60-69 19%    
  Dec 07, 2021 332   @ William & Mary W 67-62 68%    
  Dec 11, 2021 85   Virginia Commonwealth L 54-61 27%    
  Dec 19, 2021 83   @ Richmond L 61-74 12%    
  Dec 22, 2021 198   College of Charleston W 73-72 56%    
  Dec 30, 2021 226   @ Florida International L 60-63 38%    
  Jan 01, 2022 221   @ Florida Atlantic L 64-68 38%    
  Jan 08, 2022 223   @ Charlotte L 60-63 37%    
  Jan 13, 2022 300   Texas San Antonio W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 162   UTEP L 61-62 48%    
  Jan 20, 2022 184   @ Rice L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 108   @ North Texas L 52-62 19%    
  Jan 29, 2022 223   Charlotte W 63-60 59%    
  Feb 03, 2022 114   Marshall L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 05, 2022 126   Western Kentucky L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 10, 2022 183   @ Middle Tennessee L 61-66 33%    
  Feb 13, 2022 51   UAB L 60-69 21%    
  Feb 17, 2022 114   @ Marshall L 68-77 19%    
  Feb 19, 2022 126   @ Western Kentucky L 61-70 23%    
  Feb 24, 2022 221   Florida Atlantic W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 226   Florida International W 63-60 60%    
  Mar 02, 2022 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-73 20%    
  Mar 05, 2022 183   Middle Tennessee W 64-63 55%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 3.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.1 0.3 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 3.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 4.0 1.0 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 5.2 2.4 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.4 3.5 0.3 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.4 2.1 0.1 11.7 11th
12th 0.4 3.0 5.3 2.4 0.2 11.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 2.7 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.4 13th
14th 0.2 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.0 14th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.0 5.2 9.1 12.1 13.1 13.4 12.9 10.7 8.1 5.7 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 58.4% 0.2    0.2 0.1
14-4 32.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.1
15-3 0.4% 11.4% 10.8% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6%
14-4 0.8% 5.2% 5.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-5 2.0% 11.8% 11.8% 14.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-6 3.2% 6.1% 6.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.0
11-7 5.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.6
10-8 8.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.1 0.0 7.9
9-9 10.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.6
8-10 12.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.8
7-11 13.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.4
6-12 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-13 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
4-14 9.1% 9.1
3-15 5.2% 5.2
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%