Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.1 252
Expected Predictive Rating -6.9 275
Pace 70.8 123
Improvement +0.2 177

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #253 D+ D+ C+ C- D
Defense C- #242 C C D D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 289 57% 201 -2.7 274
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 67 32% 342 +0.7 137
Three Pointers 39% 230 34% 176 -1.2 221
1st FG Attempt 0.96 275 -3.1 273
Second Chance 25.1% 327 1.04 153 0.26 289
Turnovers 16.0% 126
Freethrows 0.29 237 73% 156 0.21 215
Total Offense -3.0 253

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 42 64% 327 -5.9 349
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 171 34% 60 +0.6 137
Three Pointers 35% 332 30% 32 +5.2 12
1st FG Attempt 1.02 181 -0.1 185
Second Chance 31.1% 204 1.03 184 0.32 204
Turnovers 14.8% 311
Freethrows 0.35 302 75% 311 0.26 318
Total Defense -2.1 242

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.1 312 +0.4 239
Shot Type Accuracy -2.1 245 -0.3 171
Possession Length 17.1 154 16.8 94
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 226 0.22 317
Improvement +0.0 #177 +0.2 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.2% 18.6% 2.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 43.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 46 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 86 @Miami (OH) L 72 - 87 9% +3  63% 0 - 1 D+ -6 D -6 B- D- F C+ +1 C- A C
 Tue, Nov 11 309 Norfolk St. W 60 - 57 74% +1  58% 1 - 1 D -9 F+ -9 F D- B C+ +1 A F+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 83 @George Washington L 73 - 96 9% -11  15% 1 - 2 D- -13 D+ -4 D- C+ F+ D- -8 C+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 82 @Xavier L 69 - 99 9% -20  1% 1 - 3 F -20 D -6 D- C+ C- F -13 D+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 352 Morgan St. W 88 - 56 86% +18  98% 2 - 3 A- +15 B+ +8 C D- A A- +9 B B D
 Sun, Nov 23 215 @Drexel L 71 - 75 31% -1  37% 2 - 4 C- -4 C+ +3 C+ D+ B D- -7 D+ F D
 Tue, Nov 25 30 @Villanova L 75 - 89 3% -6  16% 2 - 5 C+ +4 A +12 B A- A D- -9 D- D F+
 Sun, Nov 30 145 @William & Mary L 75 - 88 19% -7  7% 2 - 6 D -9 F+ -8 D F+ C- C+ +1 D+ A D
 Sat, Dec 6 137 @Richmond L 77 - 86 19% -4  8% 2 - 7 C- -5 D+ -3 D- F+ A+ C -1 B F+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 87 @George Mason L 61 - 73 10% -10  0% 2 - 8 C- -3 F -11 D B- F A- +8 A B+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 220 James Madison W 77 - 68 54% +6  82% 3 - 8 1 - 0 C+ +3 C +0 C- F A- B- +3 C A- C+
 Sat, Dec 20 236 Coastal Carolina L 74 - 76 59% -1  24% 3 - 9 1 - 1 D -9 D- -7 C C F C- -3 B- A F
 Sun, Dec 28 111 @Maryland L 58 - 73 14% -18  0% 3 - 10 D -8 F -13 F D+ D+ B- +4 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 173 Appalachian St. L 73 - 81 45% -13  0% 3 - 11 1 - 2 D- -12 C+ +2 A- F+ B F -14 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 265 Georgia Southern L 86 - 93 64% -13  0% 3 - 12 1 - 3 F+ -16 D- -7 F D A+ D- -8 F+ D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 236 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 36% +7  99% 4 - 12 2 - 3 C+ +3 D+ -3 C- B- F B +6 B+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 220 @James Madison L 69 - 70 31% +9  88% 4 - 13 2 - 4 C -1 D- -7 F D- B B+ +6 D A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 265 @Georgia Southern L 84 - 87 41% +2  57% 4 - 14 2 - 5 D+ -6 B- +4 B+ D- B+ F+ -10 F C+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 173 @Appalachian St. W 75 - 73 24% +10  98% 5 - 14 3 - 5 C+ +4 B+ +9 A+ D+ D+ D+ -5 C F F
 Wed, Jan 21 126 Troy L 77 - 83 2OT 33% +1  65% 5 - 15 3 - 6 D+ -7 F -10 D- F B B +4 A+ D C
 Wed, Jan 28 147 @Arkansas St. W 75 - 71 20% +5  96% 6 - 15 4 - 6 B- +8 C- -1 D+ C- B+ A- +9 B- A C+
 Sat, Jan 31 247 @Texas St. L 64 - 81 37% -12  0% 6 - 16 4 - 7 F -19 F+ -9 F C- D F+ -9 D- B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 355 Louisiana Monroe L 79 - 85 87% -6  0% 6 - 17 4 - 8 F -23 F+ -9 F D+ B F -14 D- C+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 200 Ohio W 78 - 72 52% -0  57% 7 - 17 C +0 B- +5 D+ B- A+ D+ -4 D C+ F+
 Wed, Feb 11 161 Marshall L 76 - 78 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 274 Georgia St. W 76 - 72 66%
 Mon, Feb 16 289 Louisiana W 71 - 66 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 240 @Southern Miss L 72 - 76 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 161 @Marshall L 73 - 81 24%
 Fri, Feb 27 274 @Georgia St. L 73 - 75 44%
Totals 10 - 20 7 - 11 -5 D+ -3 D+ D+ C+ C- -2 C C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D- C D+ 35% 27% 39% D D+ D C D+ C+ C- C+ C- C- D B B+ C 44% 21% 35% C- C C C C D D D D
1.04 57% 32% 34% -2 -1 0.96 25% 1.0 .26 16% .29 73% .21 1.12 64% 34% 30% 0 0 1.02 31% 1.0 .32 15% .35 75% .22
Nov
3		 Miami (OH) D D+ C- A+ B 33% 27% 41% D B- F B+ D- F C B+ B- C+ D- B B+ C+ 55% 6% 39% F C- C- A+ A C F D F
0.96 56% 38% 45% +6 -1 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 25% .29 81% .23 1.16 71% 33% 30% +5 +3 1.18 25% 0.6 .16 16% .43 81% .35
Nov
11		 Norfolk St. F+ A+ C- F F 35% 19% 47% D F D+ F D- B C+ B- B- C+ A D+ A+ A 42% 27% 31% C- A F C+ F+ C+ A- F C
1.01 80% 38% 15% -6 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .23 15% .38 74% .28 0.96 42% 42% 21% -12 -1 0.78 42% 0.9 .39 20% .27 85% .23
Nov
15		 George Washington D+ F F A+ D 35% 24% 41% D+ D- A F C+ F+ A D+ A- D- D F A+ B- 51% 10% 39% C- C+ B- F D+ F F C+ F
0.99 35% 25% 45% -4 -1 0.92 39% 0.8 .32 22% .38 68% .26 1.31 65% 60% 25% +1 +2 1.08 34% 1.3 .45 8% .58 72% .41
Nov
18		 Xavier D B+ F F D- 37% 31% 31% D D- D+ B+ C+ C- C+ D+ C F C- C+ D- C- 29% 15% 56% D- D+ F F F C F C F
0.93 65% 29% 24% -5 -1 0.89 24% 1.0 .24 19% .30 67% .20 1.33 63% 38% 39% +5 0 1.13 50% 1.2 .61 12% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Morgan St. B+ C+ D+ A B- 28% 22% 50% F C C F D- A C B- C+ A- C+ B+ A+ A 52% 20% 28% F B D+ A B D C- A+ A-
1.32 64% 36% 40% +6 -1 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 11% .45 74% .34 0.84 54% 30% 14% -12 +1 0.80 32% 0.6 .20 17% .36 55% .20
Nov
23		 Drexel C+ F C- A+ B- 40% 36% 25% D- C+ C D- D+ B D+ F F D- B- B+ F D+ 46% 22% 33% D+ D+ D- F F D F F F
1.08 43% 37% 54% +1 -2 1.00 32% 0.9 .29 14% .28 56% .16 1.14 52% 30% 47% +2 0 1.07 34% 1.1 .37 17% .38 76% .29
Nov
25		 Villanova A F+ F A+ B+ 28% 24% 48% C- B F+ A+ A- A A+ A- A+ D- F D C+ D- 35% 18% 47% C+ D- A F D F+ F C- F
1.13 46% 27% 45% +2 -1 1.04 22% 1.7 .38 15% .39 73% .28 1.34 89% 44% 33% +12 0 1.25 29% 1.4 .42 11% .44 73% .32
Nov
30		 William & Mary F+ B- C- F D- 36% 13% 51% C D F A+ F+ C- F A+ C- C+ F F A+ D+ 43% 16% 41% B- D+ C A+ A D F F F
0.95 64% 38% 26% -4 +1 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 20% .21 92% .19 1.11 73% 63% 24% +4 +1 1.12 27% 0.8 .20 15% .45 83% .37
Dec
6		 Richmond D+ B+ D- F D- 30% 27% 43% C D- D+ F F+ A+ C A B- C D+ A+ B+ A- 49% 28% 23% F+ B C- F F+ F F A+ C-
1.02 67% 31% 23% -6 -1 0.87 28% 0.8 .23 9% .29 80% .23 1.14 64% 25% 31% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.3 .36 9% .41 64% .26
Dec
13		 George Mason F D- D- C D 36% 34% 30% D D F+ A+ B- F C A B- A- C+ A+ A- A+ 54% 18% 28% F A A C B+ C- F D+ F
0.86 50% 29% 33% -6 -2 0.86 18% 1.7 .30 22% .25 79% .20 1.03 59% 11% 29% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.0 .24 15% .52 74% .38
Dec
17		 James Madison C D+ F+ C+ C- 33% 16% 51% C C- F F F A- A+ A+ A+ B- F F+ A+ C 40% 15% 45% D+ C A B- A- C+ D+ D+ D+
1.15 53% 29% 35% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 9% .54 82% .44 1.01 79% 43% 19% -1 +1 1.02 22% 1.0 .22 18% .33 72% .24
Dec
20		 Coastal Carolina D- C- D+ A- C+ 33% 37% 29% D+ C F A+ C F C+ A B C- D C- A+ B 42% 31% 27% D+ B- B+ A+ A F F F F
1.01 53% 37% 40% +1 -3 0.98 16% 1.8 .29 18% .32 79% .25 1.04 60% 39% 19% -5 -1 0.90 20% 0.6 .13 7% .35 88% .31
Dec
28		 Maryland F B- F F F 29% 37% 33% F F C F D+ D+ B+ F+ B- B- B A+ F C- 33% 20% 47% B- C- A+ C- A+ F A F B-
0.85 60% 26% 24% -9 -3 0.78 28% 0.8 .23 19% .35 63% .22 1.07 50% 18% 42% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.1 .24 12% .28 82% .23
Dec
31		 Appalachian St. C+ A+ F A+ A 33% 21% 46% D+ A- D F F+ B A F B- F F B+ A- D 46% 22% 33% C D F F F C+ F B- F
1.10 71% 18% 42% +5 0 1.12 25% 0.7 .18 12% .38 59% .22 1.22 71% 30% 27% +1 0 1.04 42% 1.5 .65 17% .51 61% .31
Jan
3		 Georgia Southern D- D- F F F 38% 28% 34% F F F B D A+ C- B+ C+ D- D- C+ C- F 46% 21% 32% B- F+ D C+ D+ D+ F F F
1.06 52% 28% 27% -8 -1 0.83 27% 1.2 .31 11% .35 80% .28 1.15 62% 42% 33% +2 0 1.07 32% 1.1 .34 14% .43 80% .34
Jan
8		 Coastal Carolina D+ F+ B- C+ C- 40% 29% 31% B- C- B+ C- B- F F+ F F B C+ A+ D+ A- 33% 25% 42% D+ B+ A F B- C- D- F+ F+
1.02 45% 44% 35% -3 -1 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 17% .23 38% .09 0.96 53% 8% 36% -8 -1 0.85 18% 1.1 .21 15% .31 78% .24
Jan
10		 James Madison D- F C+ C+ F+ 33% 30% 37% F+ F F B D- B D+ D+ D B+ F B A+ D 52% 23% 25% C- D C+ A+ A- A+ F F F
1.00 33% 38% 35% -8 -2 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 10% .32 70% .23 1.01 78% 30% 18% +3 +1 1.09 28% 0.8 .21 23% .47 80% .38
Jan
15		 Georgia Southern B- D+ D+ A+ A- 40% 15% 45% C B+ D+ D- D- B+ F F F F+ C D- F F 44% 12% 44% D+ F D- A C+ C F B F
1.18 55% 38% 48% +8 +1 1.20 33% 0.9 .31 15% .25 67% .17 1.22 55% 50% 45% +8 +2 1.20 32% 0.9 .29 15% .47 68% .32
Jan
17		 Appalachian St. B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 27% 49% F+ A+ F A+ D+ D+ A+ F A- D+ D- A+ A+ C+ 53% 10% 37% F C B- F F F F B- F
1.16 64% 50% 45% +13 -2 1.24 18% 1.4 .25 15% .42 61% .26 1.12 65% 20% 22% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.5 .41 11% .43 60% .26
Jan
21		 Troy F B C F D- 39% 31% 30% D D- F F+ F B A- B- A- B A+ F A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B A+ B+ F D C F F F
0.94 63% 42% 17% -5 -1 0.90 17% 0.9 .14 15% .36 72% .26 1.02 38% 60% 18% -14 +1 0.75 29% 1.3 .38 16% .50 85% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Arkansas St. C- C- C C- C- 32% 31% 37% D- D+ F A+ C- B+ F A- F A- F A+ B- C+ 32% 19% 49% B B- A+ B A C+ B- A+ B+
1.04 58% 39% 32% -1 -2 0.97 14% 1.8 .25 12% .22 79% .17 0.98 71% 10% 31% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 21% .30 65% .19
Jan
31		 Texas St. F+ C F F F 41% 14% 45% C F B F+ C- D A- A+ A+ F+ D+ B- F F 39% 33% 27% B D- C A- B- F F D F
0.93 60% 14% 23% -10 +1 0.84 33% 0.8 .27 20% .40 82% .33 1.17 60% 35% 43% +4 -2 1.06 32% 0.7 .24 12% .41 80% .33
Feb
4		 Louisiana Monroe F+ C F F F 38% 20% 42% D+ F D C+ D+ B A+ D- A+ F F F A+ F+ 40% 27% 33% B- D- F A+ C+ C F D- F
1.08 62% 27% 26% -6 0 0.91 31% 1.2 .36 14% .46 66% .30 1.16 68% 54% 19% +1 -1 1.02 47% 0.4 .21 18% .60 78% .46
Feb
7		 Ohio B- A+ F A+ C 34% 45% 21% F D+ C- B+ B- A+ C- A+ B D+ F C+ B- D- 30% 24% 46% B- D B- C- C+ F+ B+ B B+
1.20 78% 17% 45% +1 -3 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 9% .31 89% .27 1.11 80% 42% 30% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.0 .26 12% .26 67% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 4th
5th 0.6 0.5 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 0.3 2.6 6th
7th 0.9 3.4 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 5.1 1.5 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 8.6 0.2 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 5.7 4.8 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 1.3 12.0 0.9 14.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 8.7 9.2 0.1 18.8 12th
13th 2.4 11.6 15.6 2.0 31.6 13th
14th 14th
Total 2.4 12.3 25.7 30.0 20.5 8.0 1.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 1.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-9 8.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.9
8-10 20.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 20.3
7-11 30.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 30.0
6-12 25.7% 25.7
5-13 12.3% 12.3
4-14 2.4% 2.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 2.4%