Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#317
Expected Predictive Rating-11.3#329
Pace73.3#68
Improvement+1.9#63

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#301
First Shot-8.7#358
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#18
Layup/Dunks-2.7#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#339
Freethrows-4.2#352
Improvement-0.2#201

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#307
First Shot-5.0#328
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#131
Layups/Dunks-6.1#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+0.6#144
Improvement+2.0#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 2.1% 4.7% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.0% 14.8% 9.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 32.0% 25.8% 34.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Home) - 27.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 102 - 12
Quad 47 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 331   Buffalo L 82-83 65%     0 - 1 -13.8 -1.8 -11.9
  Nov 09, 2024 23   @ Arizona L 44-102 2%     0 - 2 -41.0 -24.0 -13.9
  Nov 12, 2024 189   @ Radford L 75-87 16%     0 - 3 -10.3 +1.9 -12.3
  Nov 15, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 73-71 79%     1 - 3 -15.2 -8.7 -6.6
  Nov 24, 2024 145   Boston College L 52-82 18%     1 - 4 -29.1 -16.6 -14.2
  Nov 25, 2024 141   High Point L 67-73 18%     1 - 5 -4.9 -1.5 -4.2
  Nov 26, 2024 208   Duquesne L 54-67 26%     1 - 6 -15.3 -18.3 +3.2
  Dec 02, 2024 219   William & Mary W 88-83 40%     2 - 6 -1.1 +3.8 -5.3
  Dec 07, 2024 151   George Washington L 74-80 27%    
  Dec 15, 2024 152   Northeastern L 69-75 27%    
  Dec 21, 2024 332   @ Louisiana Monroe L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 02, 2025 130   Arkansas St. L 71-78 24%    
  Jan 04, 2025 250   Southern Miss L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 262   @ Louisiana L 75-81 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 206   @ South Alabama L 65-75 19%    
  Jan 16, 2025 163   Appalachian St. L 67-72 30%    
  Jan 18, 2025 235   Georgia Southern L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 22, 2025 114   James Madison L 71-80 20%    
  Jan 25, 2025 272   Coastal Carolina W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 163   @ Appalachian St. L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 01, 2025 114   @ James Madison L 68-83 9%    
  Feb 05, 2025 138   Texas St. L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 13, 2025 230   @ Georgia St. L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 235   @ Georgia Southern L 75-83 24%    
  Feb 20, 2025 195   Marshall L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 230   Georgia St. L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 195   @ Marshall L 72-82 18%    
  Feb 28, 2025 272   @ Coastal Carolina L 65-71 30%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.2 4th
5th 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.1 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.4 0.3 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.3 0.7 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.7 2.0 0.1 11.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.8 6.7 3.2 0.4 14.9 12th
13th 0.2 1.7 5.5 7.6 4.1 0.7 0.0 19.8 13th
14th 1.1 4.0 6.2 6.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 21.0 14th
Total 1.1 4.2 8.0 12.6 14.8 15.3 14.0 11.2 7.8 5.3 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 66.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 4.5% 4.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 3.8% 3.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.1
9-9 5.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.2
8-10 7.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
7-11 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.2
6-12 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.0
5-13 15.3% 15.3
4-14 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.8
3-15 12.6% 12.6
2-16 8.0% 8.0
1-17 4.2% 4.2
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%