Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #243
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 #269
Pace 71.1 #118
Improvement -0.4 #209

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #260 D+ D+ C C- D
Defense #230 C C D D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 1.11 #241 -3.2 #289
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #77 0.66 #319 +0.9 #121
Three Pointers 39% #218 1.03 #169 -0.6 #209
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #265 -2.9 #263
Freethrows 0.28 #257 73% #162 0.21 #233
Second Chance 25.4% #320 1.03 #180 0.26 #286
Turnovers 16.3% #150
Total Offense -3.2 #260

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #25 1.26 #308 -6.1 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.67 #54 +0.9 #124
Three Pointers 35% #340 0.89 #40 +5.4 #8
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #174 +0.2 #174
Freethrows 0.34 #298 74% #292 0.25 #312
Second Chance 30.0% #153 1.07 #259 0.32 #199
Turnovers 14.4% #315
Total Defense -1.5 #230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #305 0.9% #259
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.7% #237 -1.3% #160
Possession Length 17.2 #164 16.7 #98
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #244 0.21 #319
Improvement -1.6 #280 +1.1 #114

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 29.9% 32.5% 7.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 89.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 47 - 711 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 90 @Miami (OH) L 72 - 87 10% +3  0 - 1 -6 -4 B- D- F -1 C A- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 307 Norfolk St. W 60 - 57 75% +1  1 - 1 -9 -6 F F+ B -2 A- F+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 79 @George Washington L 73 - 96 9% -11  1 - 2 -13 -1 D C F+ -11 C+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 83 @Xavier L 69 - 99 10% -20  1 - 3 -20 -3 D- C C- -15 D+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 354 Morgan St. W 88 - 56 87% +18  2 - 3 +15 +11 C D A +6 B B D
 Sun, Nov 23 206 @Drexel L 71 - 75 32% -1  2 - 4 -4 +6 C+ C- B- -10 D+ F+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 32 @Villanova L 75 - 89 3% -6  2 - 5 +3 +14 B A- A -12 D- D+ F+
 Sun, Nov 30 150 @William & Mary L 75 - 88 21% -7  2 - 6 -9 -5 D F+ D+ -3 C- A- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 136 @Richmond L 77 - 86 19% -4  2 - 7 -4 -0 D- F+ A+ -4 B F+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 84 @George Mason L 61 - 73 10% -10  2 - 8 -2 -8 D- B F +6 A B+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 205 James Madison W 77 - 68 54% +6  3 - 8 1 - 0 +3 +3 C- F B+ +1 C A- C+
 Sat, Dec 20 239 Coastal Carolina L 74 - 76 61% -1  3 - 9 1 - 1 -9 -4 C C F -5 C+ A F
 Sun, Dec 28 107 @Maryland L 58 - 73 14% -18  3 - 10 -8 -9 F D+ D +1 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 172 Appalachian St. L 73 - 81 47% -13  3 - 11 1 - 2 -12 +4 A- F+ B -17 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 260 Georgia Southern L 86 - 93 65% -13  3 - 12 1 - 3 -16 -4 F D+ A+ -10 D- C- D+
 Thu, Jan 8 239 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 38% +7  4 - 12 2 - 3 +3 -1 C- B- F +3 B C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 205 @James Madison L 69 - 70 31% +9  4 - 13 2 - 4 -1 -5 F D B +4 D+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 260 @Georgia Southern L 84 - 87 42% +2  4 - 14 2 - 5 -6 +7 B D B+ -12 F C+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 172 @Appalachian St. W 75 - 73 26% +10  5 - 14 3 - 5 +4 +11 A+ D+ C- -7 C F F
 Wed, Jan 21 140 Troy L 77 - 83 2OT 39% +1  5 - 15 3 - 6 -8 -8 F+ F B+ +1 A+ D+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 168 @Arkansas St. W 75 - 71 25% +5  6 - 15 4 - 6 +6 +0 D C- B +6 C+ A B-
 Sat, Jan 31 259 @Texas St. L 64 - 81 42% -12  6 - 16 4 - 7 -20 -7 F C D -12 D- B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 360 Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 71 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 199 Ohio W 78 - 77 53%
 Wed, Feb 11 153 Marshall L 75 - 77 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 268 Georgia St. W 76 - 72 66%
 Mon, Feb 16 303 Louisiana W 71 - 64 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 250 @Southern Miss L 73 - 75 42%
 Tue, Feb 24 153 @Marshall L 72 - 80 24%
 Fri, Feb 27 268 @Georgia St. L 73 - 75 44%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 10 -5 -3 D+ D+ C -1 C C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.6 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 0.5 2.5 4th
5th 0.6 3.4 0.1 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 4.0 2.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.6 8.6 0.3 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 4.3 5.8 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.4 11.0 1.4 12.8 9th
10th 3.1 10.0 0.1 13.2 10th
11th 0.4 8.9 3.9 13.2 11th
12th 0.1 4.3 9.8 0.5 14.8 12th
13th 0.3 2.7 7.5 2.3 0.0 12.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.3 2.8 12.2 24.4 30.3 20.5 8.1 1.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.3% 10.4% 10.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
10-8 8.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.8
9-9 20.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 20.2
8-10 30.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 30.3
7-11 24.4% 24.4
6-12 12.2% 12.2
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.8 25.0 75.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.2%