South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.3 182
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 120
Pace 63.9 308
Improvement +3.9 45

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 225 D+ D+ A- C- B-
Defense C 145 C D+ C+ A- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 18 D+ 55% 263 +25.4 84
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 140 C 38% 170 +7.6 195
Three Pointers 34% 316 D- 30% 324 +15.4 333
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 94 D -3.4 302
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 268
Second Chance D- 23.3% 345 A- 1.19 26 D+ 0.28 256
Turnovers A- 13.2% 15
Freethrows C+ 0.32 133 F 65% 356 C- 0.21 219
Total Offense C- -2.0 225

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% 364 D 63% 315 +14.0 361
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% 365 C+ 37% 130 +2.8 365
Three Pointers 70% 1 B- 32% 91 +33.8 1
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 260 C+ -1.1 138
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 158
Second Chance D+ 32.3% 264 D+ 1.10 291 D+ 0.36 296
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 109
Freethrows A 0.22 9 D+ 74% 295 A- 0.16 11
Total Defense C +0.7 145

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 202 18.2 309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 237 0.16 138
Improvement +1.6 #106 +2.3 #62

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19% 24% 16%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 55% 78% 41%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round19% 24% 16%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 38.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 37 - 58 - 7
Quad 413 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 @Toledo W 76 - 74 36% +9  99% 1 - 0 C+ +4 B +6 B+ B- C+ C -2 F B- B-
 Thu, Nov 6 348 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 91% -3  22% 2 - 0 D -10 F+ -9 D+ C- D C -1 F A+ A
 Thu, Nov 13 273 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 69% +3  90% 3 - 0 C- -4 D -5 F A- B+ C+ +1 A- F+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 94% +5  81% 4 - 0 D -9 D- -7 F+ F B+ C -1 B+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 194 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 41% -6  13% 5 - 0 B- +7 C+ +2 C C- A+ B +6 C C+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 117 @UAB L 72 - 80 25% -5  8% 5 - 1 C- -2 B +7 C+ D A+ F+ -10 F C- B
 Sun, Nov 30 346 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 79% +14  97% 6 - 1 B+ +14 C +1 C- C- C A+ +13 A C D-
 Tue, Dec 2 158 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 45% -1  35% 7 - 1 C+ +2 B- +4 D C A C- -2 C C- A
 Fri, Dec 5 141 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 29% -5  42% 7 - 2 F -22 D- -7 C+ F B+ F -15 C+ F F+
 Sun, Dec 14 134 North Texas L 57 - 58 51% -4  14% 7 - 3 C- -2 F+ -9 F B+ A+ B+ +6 A+ F+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 355 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 84% -7  24% 8 - 3 1 - 0 D+ -8 D -5 D+ C F+ C- -3 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 233 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 49% +6  90% 8 - 4 1 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F+ D B- C+ +2 A F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 295 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 62% +2  74% 9 - 4 2 - 1 C +0 C+ +3 D C+ D+ C -1 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 142 @Troy L 49 - 59 29% -5  16% 9 - 5 2 - 2 D+ -6 F -15 F D+ C B+ +8 A B- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 261 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 76% +9  95% 10 - 5 3 - 2 B- +7 C+ +2 A+ F C- B +5 B+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 144 Arkansas St. W 91 - 87 OT 54% +0  38% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C+ +2 C +0 D+ D A+ C+ +1 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 295 Louisiana L 56 - 59 81% -1  34% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D- -14 F -11 F+ B- A- D+ -4 D+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 212 @James Madison W 90 - 83 45% +2  49% 12 - 6 5 - 3 B- +7 B +6 D- A+ A+ C +0 D- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 235 Coastal Carolina W 53 - 48 71% +0  50% 13 - 6 6 - 3 C- -2 F -15 F+ F+ A+ A+ +14 A A- B
 Sat, Jan 31 286 Georgia St. W 69 - 67 80% +4  79% 14 - 6 7 - 3 D -8 C +2 B D A+ F+ -9 D- F C
 Wed, Feb 4 173 @Appalachian St. L 57 - 65 37% -3  12% 14 - 7 7 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -3 C- F A+ D+ -4 B- D- F
 Sat, Feb 7 202 Buffalo W 81 - 69 66% +18  96% 15 - 7 B- +7 C +1 B D+ B+ B +6 B A- B+
 Thu, Feb 12 243 @Southern Miss W 84 - 78 51% +8  97% 16 - 7 8 - 4 C+ +5 B- +4 A+ F A- C -0 F+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 144 @Arkansas St. W 92 - 88 OT 31% -5  21% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B- +8 A- +10 D- A A+ C- -3 C- D- A-
 Mon, Feb 16 178 @Marshall L 72 - 75 38%
 Thu, Feb 19 233 Texas St. W 71 - 65 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 142 Troy W 70 - 69 52%
 Wed, Feb 25 355 Louisiana Monroe W 82 - 66 94%
 Fri, Feb 27 243 Southern Miss W 72 - 66 72%
Totals 20 - 9 12 - 6 -1 F -2 C D B- C +1 D- F C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C D- D 46% 41% 34% B- D+ D- A- D+ A- C+ F C- C D C+ B- C+ 22% 8% 70% D+ C D+ D+ D+ C+ A D+ A-
1.06 55% 38% 30% -3 +1 0.96 23% 1.2 .28 13% .32 65% .21 1.08 63% 37% 32% -1 0 1.01 32% 1.1 .36 18% .22 74% .24
Nov
3		 Toledo B B+ A C B 55% 12% 33% B+ B+ C B B- C+ C F F C F+ A+ F F 24% 14% 61% D+ F A+ F B- B- A+ C- A+
1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09 1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13
Nov
6		 Alcorn St. F+ B- F B- D 59% 17% 24% C+ D+ F A+ C- D A+ F B C F C+ D F 25% 6% 69% F F B- A+ A+ A B- F C
1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28 0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17
Nov
13		 Central Michigan D F+ D+ F F 57% 7% 37% A F D+ A+ A- B+ A- D B C+ A+ A+ B A 15% 8% 77% D A- F B+ F+ C A- A+ A
1.07 50% 33% 18% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.6 .51 13% .43 65% .28 1.03 43% 25% 30% -8 0 0.85 41% 1.0 .41 18% .20 60% .12
Nov
15		 Coppin St. D- D F C+ F 43% 15% 42% B- F+ C F F B+ F D+ F C D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 2% 60% F B+ B- F F D- C F D+
1.08 57% 25% 36% -1 +1 1.02 36% 0.8 .28 14% .26 73% .19 0.93 58% 0% 17% -16 +2 0.74 26% 1.9 .49 20% .32 76% .24
Nov
19		 Jacksonville St. C+ D+ A+ F C- 57% 19% 23% B C F A+ C- A+ A F C B A- C+ C- C 33% 5% 62% C C B- C C+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25 0.98 44% 33% 35% -3 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02
Nov
21		 UAB B B D C C+ 42% 21% 38% C+ C+ F+ B- D A+ A+ F A F+ F F C+ F 30% 15% 55% C- F F B+ C- B F+ A C-
1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26 1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24
Nov
30		 Texas San Antonio C F A+ B+ C- 43% 23% 34% D+ C- B F+ C- C B A+ A A+ A A+ A A 11% 11% 77% B- A D+ B C D- A+ F A+
1.16 43% 58% 39% +1 0 1.04 42% 0.9 .39 15% .32 84% .27 0.82 43% 14% 25% -15 -1 0.71 32% 0.8 .25 14% .03 100% .03
Dec
2		 New Mexico St. B- D- F C D- 49% 22% 29% B D F A+ C A A+ A- A+ C- D F A+ C 20% 19% 61% C- C F A+ C- A B D B-
1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54 1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19
Dec
5		 East Tennessee St. D- F F A+ C 46% 8% 46% B+ C+ F F F B+ C- F F F C A+ C+ B- 36% 7% 57% D- C+ F F F F+ A+ C- A+
0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16 1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12
Dec
14		 North Texas F+ F+ D+ F F 67% 14% 19% A+ F D+ A+ B+ A+ B D+ C+ B+ C- F A+ A+ 20% 4% 76% C A+ B- F F+ A- B- C+ B-
0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28 0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22
Dec
17		 Louisiana Monroe D A+ A- F D+ 38% 16% 46% C- D+ F A+ C F+ B- A+ B+ C- F A+ F F 12% 15% 73% B+ F D F F A+ D+ F D-
1.10 78% 50% 25% +3 0 1.10 20% 2.1 .43 19% .27 79% .21 1.05 71% 22% 40% +5 -1 1.10 28% 1.8 .50 27% .33 81% .27
Dec
20		 Texas St. D D+ A+ F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F+ F A D B- A- F B- C+ B- D+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 47% F+ A F D F C- F F F
0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26 1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37
Dec
31		 Louisiana C+ C+ D+ D- D 41% 16% 43% C- D B C- C+ D+ A- A+ A+ C A+ D- C+ C+ 9% 20% 70% C- C+ F+ F F D- A C- A-
1.13 60% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.0 .37 20% .45 85% .38 1.04 25% 44% 32% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.1 .35 14% .15 71% .10
Jan
3		 Troy F F F F F 43% 14% 43% B+ F C- D- D+ C A+ D A+ B+ A+ B B A 20% 6% 73% B A D A B- D+ A+ A+ A+
0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29 1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08
Jan
10		 Georgia Southern C+ B- A A+ A+ 53% 27% 20% D A+ D- F F C- B+ F C B C A+ A- A- 24% 2% 75% C- B+ B D C+ D+ C- B C+
1.20 63% 50% 60% +14 0 1.29 30% 0.8 .22 19% .43 64% .27 0.98 54% 0% 27% -10 +1 0.85 24% 1.2 .28 14% .35 68% .24
Jan
15		 Arkansas St. C C A+ F D- 51% 9% 40% A+ D+ F A+ D A+ B+ D+ B C+ D- B- B+ C+ 25% 5% 69% C- C+ C D+ C- B+ A F+ B+
1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27 1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Louisiana F D F B F+ 48% 23% 30% D+ F+ C- B+ B- A- F F F D+ C- A+ C C 14% 8% 78% F D+ A+ F C- F A+ A+ A+
0.98 52% 20% 38% -5 0 0.93 31% 1.2 .38 14% .20 30% .06 1.03 57% 25% 33% -2 0 0.98 16% 1.6 .25 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
22		 James Madison B D- D+ F F 49% 11% 40% A- D- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A C C A+ F+ F+ 14% 2% 84% C- D- A+ F D+ A F F+ F
1.19 48% 33% 27% -9 +2 0.87 24% 2.1 .51 4% .54 62% .33 1.10 57% 0% 39% +6 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .34 22% .43 76% .32
Jan
29		 Coastal Carolina F F A+ D- F 40% 26% 34% B F+ F A+ F+ A+ F F F A+ B B A+ A+ 16% 6% 78% F A D+ A+ A- B A+ A+ A+
0.88 30% 54% 29% -9 -1 0.82 12% 1.5 .18 7% .18 60% .11 0.80 50% 33% 25% -12 0 0.78 28% 0.5 .14 18% .14 57% .08
Jan
31		 Georgia St. C A A+ F B 51% 19% 30% B- B D+ D D A+ B F D F+ D A D+ D- 10% 17% 73% C- D- F B- F C C A+ B
1.15 71% 56% 21% +4 +1 1.13 30% 0.9 .27 8% .34 53% .18 1.12 60% 25% 34% -2 -2 0.96 40% 1.0 .40 17% .30 67% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Appalachian St. D+ C F A- C 33% 29% 38% F+ C- F F F A+ D+ C- D+ D+ D+ F A B- 18% 4% 78% C- B- C+ F D- F D D D
0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17 1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23
Feb
7		 Buffalo C F A+ A+ B- 49% 10% 41% B+ B F A+ D+ B+ A+ F A- B C- A C- C+ 9% 18% 74% A+ B B- A+ A- B+ A+ A A+
1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25 0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07
Feb
12		 Southern Miss B- A+ B B+ A+ 32% 19% 49% D+ A+ F C F A- A+ F A+ C C A+ F D 49% 11% 40% F F+ B F F A+ F D+ F
1.12 87% 44% 39% +14 0 1.30 13% 1.0 .13 13% .57 57% .32 1.04 59% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 27% 1.8 .47 28% .52 79% .41
Feb
14		 Arkansas St. A- F F A+ D 21% 29% 50% F D- C+ A+ A A+ B- B+ B+ C- A+ B- D D+ 14% 12% 75% A- C- F B- D- A- F A F
1.21 46% 17% 42% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.5 .41 7% .36 77% .28 1.15 43% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 47% 1.0 .44 24% .51 67% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 12.6 32.1 10.5 55.3 1st
2nd 1.9 17.3 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 9.4 5.3 14.8 3rd
4th 0.7 6.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 0.5 2.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 1.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.3 3.9 18.1 35.1 32.1 10.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 10.5    10.5
13-5 100.0% 32.1    16.8 13.4 1.8
12-6 35.8% 12.6    0.4 2.6 6.0 3.2 0.4
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.3% 55.3 27.8 16.1 7.8 3.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 10.5% 29.7% 29.7% 13.6 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.2 7.4
13-5 32.1% 24.6% 24.6% 14.2 0.0 0.9 4.5 2.4 0.1 24.2
12-6 35.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.5 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.9 0.2 28.8
11-7 18.1% 8.6% 8.6% 14.6 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 16.5
10-8 3.9% 2.5% 2.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8
9-9 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 14.2 81.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 13.6 1.8 44.4 49.0 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.4%
Lose Out 0.1%