South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#206
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#233
Pace63.8#314
Improvement-2.1#309

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#217
First Shot+0.3#169
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#295
Layup/Dunks+2.1#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#125
Freethrows-1.5#266
Improvement-0.8#244

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#181
First Shot-3.1#280
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#29
Layups/Dunks+9.8#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-19.4#364
Freethrows+2.3#56
Improvement-1.2#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.4% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 62.2% 72.5% 48.7%
.500 or above in Conference 62.3% 67.2% 55.7%
Conference Champion 5.9% 7.5% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.5% 4.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.1% 6.3% 3.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 412 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 196   Central Michigan L 70-74 59%     0 - 1 -8.5 -0.7 -7.9
  Nov 08, 2024 223   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 43%     1 - 1 +5.6 +3.4 +2.6
  Nov 12, 2024 26   @ Mississippi L 54-64 5%     1 - 2 +6.5 -9.2 +15.0
  Nov 16, 2024 232   Mercer W 75-66 68%     2 - 2 +2.2 -1.3 +3.6
  Nov 25, 2024 314   Incarnate Word W 84-63 81%     3 - 2 +9.6 +7.3 +3.9
  Nov 26, 2024 324   Western Illinois L 63-64 83%     3 - 3 -13.1 -5.1 -8.1
  Nov 29, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 74-65 OT 89%     4 - 3 -6.7 -1.4 -4.6
  Dec 08, 2024 174   Jacksonville St. W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 15, 2024 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 71-63 78%    
  Dec 16, 2024 78   @ TCU L 62-74 13%    
  Dec 21, 2024 114   James Madison L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 02, 2025 230   @ Georgia St. L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 235   @ Georgia Southern L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 130   Arkansas St. L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 317   Old Dominion W 75-65 81%    
  Jan 15, 2025 250   Southern Miss W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 125   Troy L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 23, 2025 332   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 125   @ Troy L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 30, 2025 332   Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 262   @ Louisiana W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 272   @ Coastal Carolina W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 195   Marshall W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 138   Texas St. L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 130   @ Arkansas St. L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 138   @ Texas St. L 64-70 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 250   @ Southern Miss L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 28, 2025 262   Louisiana W 75-68 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.6 5.0 1.1 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 5.4 2.0 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.7 3.0 0.2 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.9 1.1 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.6 0.1 6.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.5 0.2 4.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 4.4 7.0 10.1 12.3 13.6 13.6 11.6 9.6 6.8 4.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 96.3% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 78.7% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 48.1% 2.0    0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 17.5% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 31.0% 31.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.8% 22.8% 22.8% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 1.9% 22.1% 22.1% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
14-4 4.1% 15.8% 15.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.4
13-5 6.8% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.8
12-6 9.6% 10.6% 10.6% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 8.6
11-7 11.6% 7.1% 7.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 10.8
10-8 13.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 13.2
9-9 13.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.3
8-10 12.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.1 0.1 12.1
7-11 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.1
6-12 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
5-13 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
4-14 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.3 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.7 0.6 94.8 0.0%