South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #194
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #143
Pace 62.9 #329
Improvement +1.8 #108

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #253 D+ C- B+ C- B-
Defense #142 C D+ C+ A D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #9 1.08 #269 +3.7 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #202 0.80 #111 -0.1 #181
Three Pointers 33% #335 0.81 #361 -7.6 #359
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #304 -4.1 #304
Freethrows 0.31 #165 65% #353 0.20 #251
Second Chance 24.3% #338 1.19 #23 0.29 #235
Turnovers 13.5% #26
Total Offense -3.0 #253

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% #364 1.29 #331 +8.1 #7
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #365 0.76 #196 +5.1 #1
Three Pointers 71% #1 0.95 #82 -12.9 #365
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #167 +0.3 #166
Freethrows 0.20 #4 75% #305 0.15 #6
Second Chance 33.4% #292 1.08 #264 0.36 #296
Turnovers 17.5% #129
Total Defense +0.7 #142

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #67 1.1% #275
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.5% #328 -1.8% #145
Possession Length 17.6 #216 18.4 #332
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #239 0.16 #129
Improvement -1.3 #256 +3.1 #37

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 17.2% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.9% 97.4%
Conference Champion 19.4% 35.1% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.8% 17.2% 9.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Away) - 34.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 414 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 159 @Toledo W 76 - 74 31% +9  1 - 0 +5 +9 B B B- -4 F+ C+ B-
 Thu, Nov 6 348 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 88% -3  2 - 0 -9 -6 D+ C D- -3 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 294 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 70% +3  3 - 0 -6 -1 F B+ B+ -4 B F C
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 94% +5  4 - 0 -10 -7 F F+ B -3 B+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 191 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 38% -6  5 - 0 +7 +4 C C- A+ +3 C C+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 120 @UAB L 72 - 80 22% -5  5 - 1 -2 +9 C+ D A+ -12 F C- B-
 Sun, Nov 30 342 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 73% +14  6 - 1 +15 +5 C- C C +10 A- C D-
 Tue, Dec 2 167 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 44% -1  7 - 1 +1 +7 D C A -5 C C- A-
 Fri, Dec 5 131 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 25% -5  7 - 2 -21 -5 C F A- -17 C+ F F+
 Sun, Dec 14 147 North Texas L 57 - 58 49% -4  7 - 3 -3 -6 F B+ A+ +3 A+ F+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 82% -7  8 - 3 1 - 0 -8 -2 D+ C+ D -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 259 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 51% +6  8 - 4 1 - 1 -5 -3 F+ D+ C+ -2 B+ F C
 Wed, Dec 31 303 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 61% +2  9 - 4 2 - 1 -0 +6 D B- D+ -5 C F D
 Sat, Jan 3 140 @Troy L 49 - 59 26% -5  9 - 5 2 - 2 -6 -13 F D+ C+ +5 A- B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 260 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 73% +9  10 - 5 3 - 2 +7 +5 A+ F C +2 B B- D
 Thu, Jan 15 168 Arkansas St. W 91 - 87 OT 55% +0  11 - 5 4 - 2 +0 +2 D D+ A+ -2 C C- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 303 Louisiana L 56 - 59 80% -1  11 - 6 4 - 3 -14 -8 F+ B- A- -7 D+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 205 @James Madison W 90 - 83 40% +2  12 - 6 5 - 3 +7 +9 D- A+ A+ -2 D- D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 239 Coastal Carolina W 53 - 48 69% +0  13 - 6 6 - 3 -2 -13 F+ F+ A+ +12 A A- B
 Sat, Jan 31 268 Georgia St. W 69 - 67 74% +4  14 - 6 7 - 3 -7 +5 B D A+ -11 D F+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 172 @Appalachian St. L 61 - 65 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 204 Buffalo W 73 - 70 63%
 Thu, Feb 12 250 @Southern Miss L 68 - 69 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 168 @Arkansas St. L 71 - 76 33%
 Mon, Feb 16 153 @Marshall L 68 - 73 31%
 Thu, Feb 19 259 Texas St. W 69 - 63 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 140 Troy L 68 - 69 47%
 Wed, Feb 25 360 Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 64 93%
 Fri, Feb 27 250 Southern Miss W 71 - 65 71%
Totals 19 - 10 11 - 7 -2 -3 D+ C- B+ +1 C D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.6 9.1 4.5 0.8 19.4 1st
2nd 0.0 4.0 13.6 4.8 0.1 22.6 2nd
3rd 1.0 12.3 6.3 0.2 19.9 3rd
4th 0.0 5.4 8.4 0.4 14.3 4th
5th 0.4 8.3 1.7 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 2.1 3.6 0.1 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 3.1 0.6 3.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.6 0.4 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.6 7.8 19.0 26.8 25.0 14.1 4.7 0.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.8    0.8
14-4 97.1% 4.5    3.3 1.3 0.0
13-5 64.5% 9.1    3.2 4.7 1.1 0.0
12-6 18.5% 4.6    0.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 7.8 7.4 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.8% 39.1% 39.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 4.7% 27.3% 27.3% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.4
13-5 14.1% 22.3% 22.3% 14.5 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.1 11.0
12-6 25.0% 16.6% 16.6% 14.7 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.4 20.9
11-7 26.8% 8.5% 8.5% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 24.5
10-8 19.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 18.5
9-9 7.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 7.7
8-10 1.6% 1.6
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 14.6 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.4 8.2 51.0 36.7 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%