South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#180
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#125
Pace63.2#330
Improvement+1.3#91

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#201
First Shot-1.3#211
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks+5.6#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#333
Freethrows-0.7#222
Improvement+0.4#142

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#169
First Shot+2.1#107
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#312
Layups/Dunks+6.9#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.6#365
Freethrows+4.9#6
Improvement+0.9#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 11.8% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.2
.500 or above 93.7% 95.8% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 82.0% 86.0% 62.7%
Conference Champion 13.4% 15.2% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 1.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.6% 11.8% 5.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 35 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 167 @Toledo W 76-74 36%     1 - 0 +4.3 +8.1 -3.6
  Thu, Nov 6 330 Alcorn St. W 76-70 87%     2 - 0 -7.4 -5.0 -2.6
  Thu, Nov 13 323 Central Michigan W 66-64 79%     3 - 0 -7.6 -3.5 -3.9
  Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72-62 94%     4 - 0 -8.5 -5.1 -2.9
  Wed, Nov 19 256 @Jacksonville St. W 71-65 54%     5 - 0 +3.8 +3.4 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 21 119 @UAB L 72-80 24%     5 - 1 -1.8 +8.2 -10.8
  Sun, Nov 30 287 @Texas San Antonio W 82-58 60%     6 - 1 +20.1 +8.2 +11.6
  Tue, Dec 2 134 New Mexico St. W 77-75 38%     7 - 1 +3.7 +9.5 -5.7
  Fri, Dec 5 123 @East Tennessee St. L 65-91 25%     7 - 2 -20.1 -3.6 -17.2
  Sun, Dec 14 146 North Texas L 57-58 53%     7 - 3 -3.2 -8.0 +4.8
  Wed, Dec 17 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Dec 20 241 @Texas St. W 67-66 50%    
  Wed, Dec 31 325 @Louisiana W 66-61 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 143 @Troy L 67-72 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 236 Georgia Southern W 77-71 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 153 Arkansas St. W 75-74 54%    
  Sat, Jan 17 325 Louisiana W 69-58 85%    
  Thu, Jan 22 183 @James Madison L 68-71 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 160 @Marshall L 69-73 34%    
  Thu, Jan 29 245 Coastal Carolina W 72-66 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 335 Georgia St. W 75-63 87%    
  Wed, Feb 4 233 @Appalachian St. L 63-64 48%    
  Thu, Feb 12 200 @Southern Miss L 69-71 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 153 @Arkansas St. L 72-77 33%    
  Thu, Feb 19 241 Texas St. W 69-63 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 143 Troy W 70-69 52%    
  Wed, Feb 25 357 Louisiana Monroe W 79-63 92%    
  Fri, Feb 27 200 Southern Miss W 72-68 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.3 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 13.4 1st
2nd 0.4 3.0 5.4 3.0 0.7 0.1 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.8 3.9 0.5 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.5 4.3 5.2 0.9 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 5.4 1.5 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.6 2.5 0.1 8.1 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 3.6 0.5 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.0 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.1 8.1 12.1 14.1 15.8 13.8 11.5 7.8 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 97.3% 1.8    1.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 84.1% 3.6    2.6 0.9 0.1
14-4 55.4% 4.3    1.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.1% 2.4    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 7.3 4.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 44.4% 44.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 39.7% 39.7% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 1.9% 41.7% 41.7% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-3 4.3% 30.2% 30.2% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 3.0
14-4 7.8% 27.3% 27.3% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.7
13-5 11.5% 23.0% 23.0% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.0 8.9
12-6 13.8% 13.2% 13.2% 14.3 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.0 12.0
11-7 15.8% 5.2% 5.2% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 15.0
10-8 14.1% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 13.6
9-9 12.1% 1.6% 1.6% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.9
8-10 8.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.1
7-11 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.0
6-12 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.7 2.8 0.3 89.4 0.0%