South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#157
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#87
Pace69.4#172
Improvement-0.4#209

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#190
First Shot+1.1#144
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#268
Layup/Dunks+8.8#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#257
Freethrows-2.3#305
Improvement+0.7#105

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#132
First Shot+1.7#119
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#225
Layups/Dunks-1.3#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#206
Freethrows+2.6#36
Improvement-1.1#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 15.2% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 72.8% 77.9% 53.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.8% 76.5% 63.9%
Conference Champion 16.4% 18.0% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.4% 5.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round13.6% 15.0% 8.5%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 66 - 9
Quad 410 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 53   @ Wichita St. L 58-64 16%     0 - 1 +5.4 -4.5 +9.7
  Nov 16, 2021 13   @ Alabama L 68-73 6%     0 - 2 +13.5 -5.6 +19.8
  Nov 25, 2021 153   San Diego W 68-67 49%     1 - 2 +1.8 -2.5 +4.3
  Nov 26, 2021 188   Hawaii W 72-69 57%     2 - 2 +1.7 -1.3 +3.1
  Dec 01, 2021 247   Southern Miss W 71-63 79%    
  Dec 04, 2021 149   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 14, 2021 155   Tarleton St. W 63-60 61%    
  Dec 17, 2021 155   @ Tarleton St. L 60-63 39%    
  Dec 21, 2021 322   SIU Edwardsville W 76-63 88%    
  Dec 30, 2021 234   @ Texas Arlington W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 01, 2022 138   @ Texas St. L 64-68 34%    
  Jan 06, 2022 172   Appalachian St. W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 08, 2022 227   Coastal Carolina W 74-68 72%    
  Jan 13, 2022 141   Georgia St. W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 176   Georgia Southern W 69-65 66%    
  Jan 20, 2022 186   @ Louisiana L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 22, 2022 263   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 27, 2022 240   Troy W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 240   @ Troy W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 03, 2022 176   @ Georgia Southern L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 141   @ Georgia St. L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 10, 2022 289   Arkansas Little Rock W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 12, 2022 229   Arkansas St. W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 17, 2022 227   @ Coastal Carolina W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 172   @ Appalachian St. L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 24, 2022 138   Texas St. W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 234   Texas Arlington W 72-65 74%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 3.0 4.3 4.1 2.4 0.8 0.3 16.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.8 5.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.7 5.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.7 4.4 4.6 1.5 0.3 11.6 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 4.8 1.6 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 4.3 1.8 0.2 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.4 0.2 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.4 0.4 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.3 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.3 7.0 8.3 11.0 12.4 12.5 12.8 10.1 6.7 4.8 2.4 0.8 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
16-2 99.2% 2.4    2.2 0.1
15-3 86.5% 4.1    3.2 0.9
14-4 64.0% 4.3    2.3 1.8 0.2
13-5 29.1% 3.0    1.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.2% 1.4    0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 10.1 4.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 61.0% 61.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 61.0% 60.7% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6%
16-2 2.4% 50.5% 47.9% 2.6% 12.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 5.0%
15-3 4.8% 38.2% 38.2% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.0
14-4 6.7% 23.5% 23.5% 13.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 5.1
13-5 10.1% 25.9% 25.9% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 7.5
12-6 12.8% 18.6% 18.6% 14.3 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.1 10.4
11-7 12.5% 11.0% 11.0% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 11.1
10-8 12.4% 7.5% 7.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 11.5
9-9 11.0% 6.4% 6.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 10.3
8-10 8.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.3 0.2 0.1 8.1
7-11 7.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.9
6-12 5.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.3
5-13 3.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.8% 13.7% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.6 4.2 3.4 0.8 86.2 0.1%