South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#150
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#68
Pace62.8#337
Improvement+3.7#15

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#151
First Shot+1.5#133
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#247
Layup/Dunks+6.1#24
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#328
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement+3.0#9

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#170
First Shot+0.6#151
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#221
Layups/Dunks+6.5#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-13.5#365
Freethrows+4.9#6
Improvement+0.7#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 22.0% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 98.3% 99.6% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 93.9% 89.2%
Conference Champion 24.7% 30.4% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.1% 22.0% 16.0%
Second Round1.3% 2.0% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 47 - 6
Quad 414 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 170 @Toledo W 76-74 44%     1 - 0 +4.0 +7.8 -3.6
  Thu, Nov 6 333 Alcorn St. W 76-70 89%     2 - 0 -7.2 -4.7 -2.6
  Thu, Nov 13 310 Central Michigan W 66-64 79%     3 - 0 -6.1 -2.6 -3.2
  Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72-62 94%     4 - 0 -6.8 -3.5 -2.8
  Wed, Nov 19 245 @Jacksonville St. W 71-65 58%     5 - 0 +4.4 +4.7 +0.0
  Fri, Nov 21 113 @UAB L 72-80 28%     5 - 1 -1.6 +9.1 -11.5
  Sun, Nov 30 270 @Texas San Antonio W 82-58 63%     6 - 1 +21.1 +7.9 +12.9
  Tue, Dec 2 115 New Mexico St. W 77-75 39%     7 - 1 +5.3 +10.8 -5.4
  Fri, Dec 5 137 @East Tennessee St. L 67-71 35%    
  Sun, Dec 14 148 North Texas W 66-63 61%    
  Wed, Dec 17 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 78-66 87%    
  Sat, Dec 20 223 @Texas St. W 67-66 55%    
  Wed, Dec 31 317 @Louisiana W 67-61 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 147 @Troy L 68-71 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 233 Georgia Southern W 77-69 77%    
  Thu, Jan 15 156 Arkansas St. W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 317 Louisiana W 70-58 86%    
  Thu, Jan 22 159 @James Madison L 70-72 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 184 @Marshall L 72-73 47%    
  Thu, Jan 29 258 Coastal Carolina W 74-65 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 335 Georgia St. W 76-62 90%    
  Wed, Feb 4 279 @Appalachian St. W 66-62 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 232 @Southern Miss W 71-69 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 156 @Arkansas St. L 73-75 42%    
  Thu, Feb 19 223 Texas St. W 70-63 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 147 Troy W 71-68 60%    
  Wed, Feb 25 360 Louisiana Monroe W 81-63 94%    
  Fri, Feb 27 232 Southern Miss W 74-66 75%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.6 7.7 4.7 1.9 0.4 24.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.4 7.0 5.2 1.5 0.2 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 6.4 4.3 0.8 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.2 4.3 0.8 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.9 1.3 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.6 7.3 10.5 13.5 15.5 15.0 12.6 9.2 5.0 1.9 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
16-2 95.4% 4.7    4.2 0.5 0.0
15-3 83.0% 7.7    5.4 2.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 52.3% 6.6    2.8 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.3% 2.9    0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 15.2 6.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 52.8% 52.8% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.9% 54.3% 54.3% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9
16-2 5.0% 43.7% 43.7% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.8
15-3 9.2% 38.2% 38.2% 13.2 0.6 1.8 1.1 0.1 5.7
14-4 12.6% 31.3% 31.3% 13.5 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.2 8.7
13-5 15.0% 22.1% 22.1% 13.7 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 11.7
12-6 15.5% 14.1% 14.1% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 13.3
11-7 13.5% 7.4% 7.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 12.5
10-8 10.5% 4.3% 4.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.0
9-9 7.3% 2.4% 2.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.1
8-10 4.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
7-11 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.6
6-12 1.3% 1.3
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.9 6.6 1.9 0.1 81.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 11.1 51.9 37.0