Southern Miss
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#247
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#218
Pace69.2#187
Improvement+3.8#11

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#310
First Shot-1.4#214
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#347
Layup/Dunks-1.8#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+10.7#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.3#350
Freethrows-1.9#293
Improvement+3.4#4

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#151
First Shot+0.9#140
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#212
Layups/Dunks+4.1#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#331
Freethrows+2.2#56
Improvement+0.4#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 13.1% 25.0% 9.8%
.500 or above in Conference 16.6% 24.4% 14.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 25.1% 17.0% 27.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 21.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 94 - 15
Quad 47 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 186   Louisiana L 45-66 48%     0 - 1 -25.2 -32.5 +9.2
  Nov 15, 2021 90   @ TCU L 51-83 11%     0 - 2 -23.0 -19.1 -2.6
  Nov 21, 2021 319   Lamar W 82-75 76%     1 - 2 -4.9 -0.9 -4.2
  Nov 24, 2021 283   UNC Wilmington W 80-66 57%     2 - 2 +7.6 +5.1 +2.5
  Nov 25, 2021 193   UC San Diego W 56-55 38%     3 - 2 -0.4 -13.0 +12.7
  Nov 26, 2021 207   @ Montana L 62-74 29%     3 - 3 -11.0 -7.0 -4.7
  Dec 01, 2021 157   @ South Alabama L 63-71 21%    
  Dec 04, 2021 154   @ Southern Illinois L 59-67 21%    
  Dec 14, 2021 257   Jacksonville W 64-60 63%    
  Dec 18, 2021 263   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 21, 2021 178   @ East Carolina L 65-72 27%    
  Dec 30, 2021 126   Western Kentucky L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 01, 2022 114   Marshall L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 06, 2022 300   @ Texas San Antonio L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 08, 2022 162   @ UTEP L 60-68 24%    
  Jan 13, 2022 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-77 14%    
  Jan 16, 2022 109   Louisiana Tech L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 22, 2022 183   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 27, 2022 108   North Texas L 57-63 30%    
  Jan 29, 2022 184   Rice L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 03, 2022 226   @ Florida International L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 221   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 10, 2022 51   @ UAB L 59-75 8%    
  Feb 17, 2022 300   Texas San Antonio W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 162   UTEP L 63-65 43%    
  Feb 24, 2022 108   @ North Texas L 54-66 14%    
  Feb 26, 2022 184   @ Rice L 69-76 27%    
  Mar 02, 2022 51   UAB L 62-72 19%    
  Mar 05, 2022 223   Charlotte W 65-64 53%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.3 1.2 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.2 0.3 8.3 9th
10th 0.8 4.7 4.6 0.8 0.0 10.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.7 1.8 0.1 12.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.4 6.4 2.6 0.2 14.4 12th
13th 0.1 1.3 4.1 5.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 14.5 13th
14th 0.6 2.6 5.1 5.5 2.2 0.4 16.3 14th
Total 0.6 2.7 6.4 10.4 12.9 14.1 14.6 12.2 9.6 6.8 4.5 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 57.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1
13-5 6.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.3% 0.3
13-5 0.7% 10.0% 10.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.5% 8.2% 8.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
11-7 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 2.7
10-8 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 4.5
9-9 6.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.1 0.0 6.7
8-10 9.6% 9.6
7-11 12.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 14.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.5
5-13 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.1
4-14 12.9% 12.9
3-15 10.4% 10.4
2-16 6.4% 6.4
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%