Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#219
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#200
Pace69.4#191
Improvement+0.4#160

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#190
First Shot-1.7#223
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#135
Layup/Dunks+2.9#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#350
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement-1.8#317

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#252
First Shot-4.9#331
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#49
Layups/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#359
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement+2.2#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 9.2% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 47.3% 71.1% 44.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.8% 74.8% 63.6%
Conference Champion 6.6% 11.0% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.8% 1.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round5.4% 9.2% 5.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Neutral) - 10.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 411 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 209 @Buffalo L 79-85 38%     0 - 1 -6.2 +8.5 -15.1
  Sun, Nov 9 86 @South Carolina L 79-83 OT 12%     0 - 2 +5.2 +5.2 +0.2
  Thu, Nov 13 286 @Grambling St. L 70-75 51%     0 - 3 -8.8 -2.0 -6.8
  Sat, Nov 22 342 North Florida W 92-83 78%     1 - 3 -2.6 +9.2 -12.0
  Sun, Nov 23 246 Tennessee Martin W 70-60 56%     2 - 3 +5.0 +14.2 -6.6
  Wed, Dec 3 272 @Radford W 82-75 47%     3 - 3 +4.2 +2.0 +1.8
  Sat, Dec 6 33 @Miami (FL) L 64-88 4%     3 - 4 -7.6 -2.9 -3.5
  Mon, Dec 8 286 Grambling St. W 68-60 73%     4 - 4 -1.8 -6.1 +4.5
  Sat, Dec 13 57 Mississippi L 66-79 10%    
  Thu, Dec 18 320 Louisiana W 73-64 79%    
  Sat, Dec 20 149 Arkansas St. L 79-80 46%    
  Mon, Dec 29 38 @LSU L 67-85 4%    
  Thu, Jan 1 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 80-72 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 320 @Louisiana W 70-67 59%    
  Thu, Jan 8 238 Texas St. W 73-69 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 357 Louisiana Monroe W 83-69 90%    
  Wed, Jan 14 147 @Troy L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 238 @Texas St. L 70-72 42%    
  Thu, Jan 22 338 @Georgia St. W 75-70 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 240 @Coastal Carolina L 73-75 42%    
  Thu, Jan 29 256 Appalachian St. W 70-65 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 180 James Madison W 75-74 53%    
  Wed, Feb 4 154 @Marshall L 72-79 27%    
  Thu, Feb 12 172 South Alabama W 72-71 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 147 Troy L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 222 Old Dominion W 77-74 61%    
  Tue, Feb 24 149 @Arkansas St. L 76-83 27%    
  Fri, Feb 27 172 @South Alabama L 68-74 30%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.6 1st
2nd 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 4.3 1.9 0.2 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.9 2.7 0.3 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.2 4.2 0.6 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.8 5.4 1.4 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.3 2.8 0.2 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.3 4.1 0.5 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.3 2.8 4.5 1.0 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 2.0 0.1 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 1.9 0.2 6.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.7 6.6 9.5 12.5 13.9 14.1 13.0 10.0 6.9 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 96.7% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 85.0% 1.7    1.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 55.8% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 19.7% 1.4    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 42.3% 42.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 36.2% 36.2% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.0% 28.9% 28.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.9% 23.4% 23.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.0
13-5 6.9% 18.1% 18.1% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 5.6
12-6 10.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 8.8
11-7 13.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 12.2
10-8 14.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.8
9-9 13.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.8
8-10 12.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.4
7-11 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.5
6-12 6.6% 6.6
5-13 3.7% 3.7
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.4 0.6 94.5 0.0%