Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#111
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#65
Pace68.2#180
Improvement-1.3#326

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#123
First Shot-0.7#206
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#31
Layup/Dunks+0.7#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#274
Freethrows+0.3#156
Improvement+0.0#206

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#119
First Shot+1.7#122
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#160
Layups/Dunks+4.3#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#207
Freethrows-1.2#273
Improvement-1.3#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 15.8% 12.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 49.0% 62.7% 36.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 1.3% 0.1%
First Round13.4% 14.9% 11.9%
Second Round2.2% 2.6% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 48.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 35 - 38 - 6
Quad 413 - 121 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 97   @ Vanderbilt W 60-48 35%     1 - 0 +19.6 -10.3 +30.0
  Nov 18, 2022 70   @ Liberty W 76-72 24%     2 - 0 +14.9 +15.6 -0.4
  Nov 22, 2022 244   Winthrop W 77-52 77%     3 - 0 +20.7 +2.6 +19.5
  Nov 23, 2022 204   Purdue Fort Wayne W 70-58 69%     4 - 0 +10.3 +3.2 +8.2
  Nov 29, 2022 189   Montana W 64-54 76%     5 - 0 +6.1 +4.1 +4.6
  Dec 04, 2022 225   @ Northwestern St. L 82-84 64%     5 - 1 -2.3 +1.7 -3.8
  Dec 10, 2022 357   Lamar W 95-59 97%     6 - 1 +17.8 +8.0 +8.0
  Dec 13, 2022 357   @ Lamar W 91-65 93%     7 - 1 +13.2 +6.2 +5.5
  Dec 18, 2022 339   McNeese St. W 86-67 94%     8 - 1 +5.3 -2.1 +6.1
  Dec 22, 2022 76   @ UNLV L 63-74 28%     8 - 2 -1.3 -7.1 +6.4
  Dec 29, 2022 149   Troy W 64-60 70%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +2.2 -8.8 +10.9
  Dec 31, 2022 179   Appalachian St. W 76-70 73%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +3.0 +7.6 -4.4
  Jan 05, 2023 112   @ Louisiana L 61-75 40%     10 - 3 2 - 1 -7.8 -5.0 -4.0
  Jan 07, 2023 265   @ Louisiana Monroe W 65-60 73%     11 - 3 3 - 1 +2.2 +1.5 +1.4
  Jan 12, 2023 78   @ Marshall L 67-89 28%     11 - 4 3 - 2 -12.6 -6.3 -4.9
  Jan 14, 2023 311   @ Arkansas St. W 74-57 80%     12 - 4 4 - 2 +11.6 +0.7 +11.3
  Jan 19, 2023 182   South Alabama W 76-72 74%     13 - 4 5 - 2 +0.8 +1.5 -0.8
  Jan 21, 2023 96   James Madison W 83-70 55%     14 - 4 6 - 2 +15.2 +20.5 -4.0
  Jan 26, 2023 311   Arkansas St. W 73-57 90%     15 - 4 7 - 2 +5.2 +6.2 +1.3
  Jan 28, 2023 209   Texas St. W 67-58 78%     16 - 4 8 - 2 +4.3 +1.1 +4.2
  Feb 02, 2023 149   @ Troy L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 04, 2023 231   @ Georgia St. W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 09, 2023 112   Louisiana W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 11, 2023 265   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 16, 2023 182   @ South Alabama W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 18, 2023 227   Georgia Southern W 72-63 81%    
  Feb 22, 2023 176   @ Old Dominion W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 24, 2023 209   @ Texas St. W 66-63 59%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 11.4 20.4 12.8 3.2 49.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 8.6 13.4 3.6 0.1 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.9 8.6 2.2 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.0 1.5 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.9 9.5 20.0 26.9 23.9 12.9 3.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.2    3.2
15-3 99.2% 12.8    11.2 1.6 0.0
14-4 85.0% 20.4    10.9 8.4 1.1 0.0
13-5 42.2% 11.4    2.2 5.2 3.4 0.6 0.0
12-6 6.3% 1.3    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.0% 49.0 27.5 15.4 5.0 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.2% 36.4% 19.7% 16.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 2.1 20.8%
15-3 12.9% 19.5% 18.1% 1.4% 11.7 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.4 1.7%
14-4 23.9% 15.8% 15.5% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.7 2.4 0.7 0.0 20.2 0.3%
13-5 26.9% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.1 0.1 23.5 0.0%
12-6 20.0% 9.9% 9.9% 12.6 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.1 18.0
11-7 9.5% 8.4% 8.4% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 8.7
10-8 2.9% 5.4% 5.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8
9-9 0.6% 5.0% 5.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.8% 13.0% 0.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.9 3.5 0.4 86.2 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 36.4% 10.9 0.2 1.4 6.3 22.9 5.5