Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#227
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#245
Pace73.9#77
Improvement+0.9#103

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#232
First Shot-0.3#185
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#270
Layup/Dunks+7.3#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#326
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#235
Freethrows-2.5#311
Improvement+0.6#113

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#201
First Shot-2.2#250
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#100
Layups/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#288
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#325
Freethrows+2.4#45
Improvement+0.3#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 7.1% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 35.7% 53.0% 27.6%
.500 or above in Conference 47.8% 58.9% 42.5%
Conference Champion 5.6% 7.8% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 6.9% 12.6%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round5.5% 6.9% 4.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Home) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 85 - 11
Quad 48 - 512 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 18, 2021 283   @ UNC Wilmington L 53-65 52%     0 - 1 -15.4 -20.6 +5.1
  Nov 23, 2021 204   Valparaiso W 64-61 46%     1 - 1 +1.1 -6.1 +7.3
  Nov 24, 2021 117   Toledo L 70-79 28%     1 - 2 -5.9 -3.4 -2.6
  Dec 01, 2021 98   South Carolina L 73-78 32%    
  Dec 04, 2021 146   Winthrop L 79-80 43%    
  Dec 06, 2021 196   Mercer W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 12, 2021 119   Wofford L 69-72 39%    
  Dec 19, 2021 183   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-74 33%    
  Dec 30, 2021 263   Louisiana Monroe W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 01, 2022 186   Louisiana W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 06, 2022 240   @ Troy L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 08, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 68-74 28%    
  Jan 13, 2022 172   @ Appalachian St. L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 15, 2022 172   Appalachian St. W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 176   @ Georgia Southern L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 141   @ Georgia St. L 73-81 25%    
  Jan 27, 2022 289   Arkansas Little Rock W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 29, 2022 229   Arkansas St. W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 03, 2022 234   @ Texas Arlington L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 138   @ Texas St. L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 10, 2022 141   Georgia St. L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 176   Georgia Southern W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 17, 2022 157   South Alabama L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 240   Troy W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 229   @ Arkansas St. L 70-73 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 289   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 74-73 52%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.4 0.9 0.2 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.9 1.0 0.2 8.2 3rd
4th 0.6 3.7 3.5 0.9 8.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 4.3 1.1 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 4.8 2.3 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 4.7 2.5 0.2 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.6 3.7 0.3 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.9 0.8 9.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.7 1.5 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 3.2 1.4 0.1 8.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.1 0.5 0.1 6.2 12th
Total 0.2 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.8 7.4 10.0 11.8 12.4 11.1 11.4 9.0 6.7 4.7 2.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
15-3 83.2% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 64.1% 1.9    1.1 0.6 0.1
13-5 27.8% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 79.2% 79.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 83.9% 83.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.6% 46.4% 46.4% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
15-3 1.2% 30.3% 30.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9
14-4 2.9% 26.1% 26.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.2
13-5 4.7% 15.4% 15.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.9
12-6 6.7% 13.2% 13.2% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.8
11-7 9.0% 12.2% 12.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 7.9
10-8 11.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 10.7
9-9 11.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.1 0.1 10.8
8-10 12.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 12.2
7-11 11.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.6
6-12 10.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.9
5-13 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 5.8% 5.8
3-15 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.1 1.3 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%