Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.1#311
Expected Predictive Rating-9.3#317
Pace60.8#344
Improvement+0.0#186

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#312
First Shot-4.4#309
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#197
Layup/Dunks-0.6#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#319
Freethrows-0.7#245
Improvement+0.1#170

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#281
First Shot-5.3#330
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#38
Layups/Dunks-0.3#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#294
Freethrows-2.4#330
Improvement-0.1#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 84.8% 73.4% 90.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 33.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 92 - 13
Quad 47 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 106   @ LSU L 52-61 9%     0 - 1 -2.4 -12.2 +9.0
  Nov 18, 2022 174   @ UC Davis L 60-75 16%     0 - 2 -12.4 -10.7 -1.9
  Nov 22, 2022 296   Tennessee Martin W 70-64 57%     1 - 2 -3.9 -6.7 +2.8
  Nov 25, 2022 287   Prairie View L 59-67 55%     1 - 3 -17.4 -11.2 -6.7
  Dec 01, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 58-38 86%     2 - 3 +0.1 -6.8 +12.3
  Dec 06, 2022 338   @ Central Arkansas L 67-72 50%     2 - 4 -13.2 -7.0 -6.5
  Dec 09, 2022 168   @ Air Force L 55-80 15%     2 - 5 -22.2 -3.9 -23.9
  Dec 14, 2022 251   Southeast Missouri St. W 68-61 48%     3 - 5 -0.5 -7.0 +6.6
  Dec 19, 2022 353   Alabama St. W 72-65 78%     4 - 5 -9.1 -0.6 -7.9
  Dec 22, 2022 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 77-75 68%     5 - 5 -10.9 +2.2 -12.9
  Dec 29, 2022 176   @ Old Dominion W 60-57 16%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +5.5 +0.2 +5.9
  Dec 31, 2022 265   Louisiana Monroe L 72-84 51%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -20.2 +2.0 -23.3
  Jan 05, 2023 182   @ South Alabama L 45-63 17%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -15.8 -19.4 +1.1
  Jan 07, 2023 149   @ Troy L 54-66 14%     6 - 8 1 - 3 -8.3 -13.5 +4.7
  Jan 12, 2023 209   Texas St. L 58-61 37%     6 - 9 1 - 4 -7.7 -9.8 +1.8
  Jan 14, 2023 111   Southern Miss L 57-74 20%     6 - 10 1 - 5 -16.2 -14.1 -2.5
  Jan 19, 2023 112   Louisiana L 71-80 20%     6 - 11 1 - 6 -8.3 +0.3 -9.0
  Jan 21, 2023 78   Marshall L 78-87 OT 13%     6 - 12 1 - 7 -5.1 +0.5 -4.9
  Jan 26, 2023 111   @ Southern Miss L 57-73 10%     6 - 13 1 - 8 -9.8 -4.1 -8.1
  Jan 28, 2023 179   @ Appalachian St. L 51-63 16%     6 - 14 1 - 9 -9.5 -12.3 +1.3
  Feb 02, 2023 182   South Alabama L 61-66 33%    
  Feb 04, 2023 246   Coastal Carolina L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 09, 2023 209   @ Texas St. L 56-65 20%    
  Feb 11, 2023 227   @ Georgia Southern L 60-68 23%    
  Feb 16, 2023 149   Troy L 61-67 28%    
  Feb 18, 2023 231   Georgia St. L 61-63 45%    
  Feb 22, 2023 112   @ Louisiana L 62-76 9%    
  Feb 24, 2023 265   @ Louisiana Monroe L 62-67 30%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 3 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.4 1.7 0.2 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.0 0.0 5.9 12th
13th 0.2 3.2 9.1 6.9 0.7 0.0 20.1 13th
14th 7.1 20.8 25.6 14.1 2.4 0.0 70.1 14th
Total 7.1 21.0 28.8 23.8 13.1 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-14 23.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.8
3-15 28.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 28.8
2-16 21.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.0
1-17 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.1
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0