Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#156
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#99
Pace78.5#22
Improvement+4.8#4

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#167
First Shot-3.0#257
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#42
Layup/Dunks-2.8#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#162
Freethrows+2.4#69
Improvement+1.7#54

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#172
First Shot-1.6#227
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#84
Layups/Dunks+0.2#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#132
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement+3.1#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 17.2% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 90.0% 94.5% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 89.9% 84.2%
Conference Champion 20.9% 24.1% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.1% 17.2% 12.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 57.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 211 @Ohio W 89-85 50%     1 - 0 +3.8 +9.0 -5.5
  Fri, Nov 7 146 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-90 35%     1 - 1 -21.3 -8.3 -11.7
  Tue, Nov 11 240 @Missouri St. W 86-85 55%     2 - 1 -0.5 +3.3 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 19 44 @St. Mary's L 72-85 9%     2 - 2 +1.6 +8.5 -7.0
  Fri, Nov 21 38 @SMU L 69-100 8%     2 - 3 -15.6 -5.6 -6.1
  Mon, Nov 24 245 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 76%     3 - 3 +3.4 -2.7 +5.6
  Fri, Nov 28 164 North Dakota St. W 85-80 OT 64%     4 - 3 +1.2 +2.1 -1.4
  Tue, Dec 2 194 Texas Arlington W 83-63 69%     5 - 3 +14.7 +6.5 +7.5
  Sat, Dec 6 256 @Arkansas Little Rock W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Dec 13 216 @Rice W 75-74 51%    
  Wed, Dec 17 223 @Texas St. W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Dec 20 232 @Southern Miss W 79-78 54%    
  Sun, Jan 4 159 James Madison W 81-78 62%    
  Wed, Jan 7 147 Troy W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 223 Texas St. W 77-70 73%    
  Thu, Jan 15 150 @South Alabama L 72-76 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 147 @Troy L 75-79 36%    
  Thu, Jan 22 233 @Georgia Southern W 82-81 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 335 @Georgia St. W 80-73 75%    
  Wed, Jan 28 220 Old Dominion W 82-75 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 184 Marshall W 84-80 66%    
  Wed, Feb 4 258 @Coastal Carolina W 78-76 58%    
  Wed, Feb 11 360 Louisiana Monroe W 90-73 94%    
  Sat, Feb 14 150 South Alabama W 75-73 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 317 @Louisiana W 74-68 69%    
  Sat, Feb 21 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 87-76 84%    
  Tue, Feb 24 232 Southern Miss W 82-75 74%    
  Fri, Feb 27 317 Louisiana W 77-65 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.8 6.2 3.9 1.6 0.4 20.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.5 4.5 1.3 0.1 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 6.2 4.1 0.7 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.5 4.2 0.7 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.5 3.8 4.5 0.9 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.3 1.3 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.9 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.3 0.3 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.6 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.9 8.7 11.6 14.0 14.7 13.9 11.1 7.6 4.0 1.6 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.0
16-2 97.6% 3.9    3.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 82.1% 6.2    4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 52.6% 5.8    2.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.3% 2.5    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.9% 20.9 12.5 5.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 46.7% 46.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.6% 48.7% 48.7% 12.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-2 4.0% 40.9% 40.9% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.4
15-3 7.6% 36.9% 36.9% 13.5 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 4.8
14-4 11.1% 31.1% 31.1% 13.8 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.6
13-5 13.9% 21.1% 21.1% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 11.0
12-6 14.7% 11.7% 11.7% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 12.9
11-7 14.0% 7.0% 7.0% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 13.1
10-8 11.6% 3.5% 3.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.2
9-9 8.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.5
8-10 5.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 5.8
7-11 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 6.3 3.1 0.3 84.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.8 3.6 10.7 64.3 21.4