Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#141
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#113
Pace78.7#17
Improvement+3.2#25

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#133
First Shot-1.9#222
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#28
Layup/Dunks-0.8#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows+0.5#140
Improvement+2.3#37

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#166
First Shot-2.3#252
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#34
Layups/Dunks-0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#197
Freethrows+0.0#183
Improvement+0.9#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 27.6% 18.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 97.8% 99.3% 96.1%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 98.6% 93.7%
Conference Champion 37.3% 48.0% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.3% 27.6% 18.2%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 36 - 46 - 7
Quad 414 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 177 @Ohio W 89-85 48%     1 - 0 +5.8 +9.3 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 7 134 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-90 37%     1 - 1 -20.3 -7.8 -11.2
  Tue, Nov 11 263 @Missouri St. W 86-85 64%     2 - 1 -1.6 +2.6 -4.3
  Wed, Nov 19 41 @St. Mary's L 72-85 10%     2 - 2 +2.1 +9.2 -7.3
  Fri, Nov 21 42 @SMU L 69-100 10%     2 - 3 -15.9 -6.5 -5.5
  Mon, Nov 24 270 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 83%     3 - 3 +2.2 -3.7 +5.4
  Fri, Nov 28 148 North Dakota St. W 85-80 OT 63%     4 - 3 +2.9 +2.2 +0.2
  Tue, Dec 2 179 Texas Arlington W 83-63 71%     5 - 3 +15.7 +7.6 +7.3
  Sat, Dec 6 325 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90-78 78%     6 - 3 +5.2 +12.5 -7.6
  Sat, Dec 13 206 @Rice L 76-77 55%     6 - 4 -1.0 +4.1 -5.1
  Wed, Dec 17 260 @Texas St. W 89-70 64%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +16.5 +13.3 +2.5
  Sat, Dec 20 202 @Southern Miss W 80-79 54%    
  Sun, Jan 4 193 James Madison W 82-76 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 143 Troy W 80-77 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 260 Texas St. W 80-70 82%    
  Thu, Jan 15 186 @South Alabama L 75-76 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 143 @Troy L 77-80 40%    
  Thu, Jan 22 235 @Georgia Southern W 86-84 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 337 @Georgia St. W 83-74 79%    
  Wed, Jan 28 205 Old Dominion W 83-76 75%    
  Sat, Jan 31 158 Marshall W 83-79 65%    
  Wed, Feb 4 241 @Coastal Carolina W 80-77 61%    
  Wed, Feb 11 356 Louisiana Monroe W 90-72 95%    
  Sat, Feb 14 186 South Alabama W 78-72 70%    
  Thu, Feb 19 327 @Louisiana W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 87-75 86%    
  Tue, Feb 24 202 Southern Miss W 83-76 73%    
  Fri, Feb 27 327 Louisiana W 78-64 90%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.8 9.0 11.4 8.2 3.6 0.8 37.3 1st
2nd 0.3 3.4 8.1 6.1 1.9 0.2 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.3 4.3 0.9 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 3.6 0.7 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.1 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 11.2 14.6 16.8 16.1 13.4 8.5 3.6 0.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.5 0.1
16-2 97.2% 8.2    7.4 0.8 0.0
15-3 85.4% 11.4    8.3 2.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 56.0% 9.0    4.0 3.8 1.1 0.1
13-5 22.5% 3.8    0.7 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.3% 37.3 24.7 9.1 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 59.3% 59.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3
17-1 3.6% 51.1% 51.1% 12.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.7
16-2 8.5% 43.9% 43.9% 13.1 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.0 4.8
15-3 13.4% 37.7% 37.7% 13.5 0.3 2.3 2.1 0.3 8.3
14-4 16.1% 30.7% 30.7% 13.8 0.1 1.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.1
13-5 16.8% 21.9% 21.9% 14.0 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.8 0.0 13.1
12-6 14.6% 15.1% 15.1% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 12.4
11-7 11.2% 8.2% 8.2% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 10.3
10-8 7.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.0
9-9 4.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
8-10 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.6 9.8 3.1 0.2 76.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.6 1.4 0.7 45.8 43.8 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%