Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 #168
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #170
Pace 76.9 #21
Improvement -3.2 #314

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #149 C- B D B- B-
Defense #214 C- B- D C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #186 1.17 #162 +0.0 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #293 0.69 #292 -2.5 #302
Three Pointers 47% #68 0.91 #306 +0.4 #161
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #236 -2.1 #238
Freethrows 0.32 #126 76% #70 0.24 #94
Second Chance 36.0% #41 1.05 #135 0.38 #54
Turnovers 19.3% #325
Total Offense +0.4 #149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #210 1.25 #294 -1.3 #219
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #114 0.79 #237 -1.0 #264
Three Pointers 40% #217 1.03 #208 +0.3 #170
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #248 -2.0 #249
Freethrows 0.32 #263 72% #199 0.23 #251
Second Chance 26.1% #42 1.06 #240 0.28 #86
Turnovers 14.3% #319
Total Defense -1.1 #214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #100 -0.5% #124
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #270 4.5% #267
Possession Length 15.0 #19 17.4 #214
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #152 0.17 #196
Improvement -2.0 #299 -1.3 #260

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 11.5% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 96.1% 98.9% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 97.9% 86.6%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.0% 11.5% 6.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Away) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 36 - 46 - 8
Quad 412 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 199 @Ohio W 89 - 85 45% -2  1 - 0 +4 +10 C A+ F -6 F+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 22% -16  1 - 1 -18 -6 F D+ D- -10 C- F A
 Tue, Nov 11 182 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 42% -7  2 - 1 +2 +4 D B D- -1 C- B+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 42 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 8% -7  2 - 2 +2 +8 C B+ C+ -7 D+ D- B
 Fri, Nov 21 39 @SMU L 69 - 100 6% -15  2 - 3 -15 -7 D A+ F -4 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 191 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 66% +7  3 - 3 +6 -3 C- D F +9 A- A B
 Fri, Nov 28 139 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 54% -1  4 - 3 +3 +1 D B- A +2 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 163 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 60% +10  5 - 3 +17 +9 B+ C- D+ +7 A+ D F+
 Sat, Dec 6 292 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 65% +8  6 - 3 +7 +12 C B+ B -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 233 @Rice L 76 - 77 51% +7  6 - 4 -2 +2 C+ D C -4 C B F
 Wed, Dec 17 259 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 57% +8  7 - 4 1 - 0 +16 +14 A A+ F +2 B- C D-
 Sat, Dec 20 250 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 56% +3  8 - 4 2 - 0 +5 +19 F+ A+ A -14 F D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 205 James Madison L 74 - 78 68% +2  8 - 5 2 - 1 -10 -5 D D C+ -5 F A- B+
 Wed, Jan 7 140 Troy W 86 - 74 54% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +10 +6 B- A- F+ +4 C+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 259 Texas St. W 83 - 82 77% +5  10 - 5 4 - 1 -8 -0 F+ C F -7 D+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 194 @South Alabama L 87 - 91 OT 45% -0  10 - 6 4 - 2 -3 +4 C- C+ F -6 C- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 140 @Troy L 74 - 99 32% -9  10 - 7 4 - 3 -21 +6 F+ A- A- -28 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 260 @Georgia Southern W 85 - 68 57% +9  11 - 7 5 - 3 +14 +4 B+ F F+ +9 A+ F+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 268 @Georgia St. L 81 - 82 59% +3  11 - 8 5 - 4 -4 +12 A- C F+ -16 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 243 Old Dominion L 71 - 75 75% -5  11 - 9 5 - 5 -12 -7 D+ D F -4 C C F+
 Sat, Jan 31 153 Marshall L 61 - 70 58% -4  11 - 10 5 - 6 -12 -7 F C D -6 C C C
 Wed, Feb 4 239 @Coastal Carolina W 78 - 77 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 151 Bowling Green W 80 - 78 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 360 Louisiana Monroe W 91 - 74 95%
 Sat, Feb 14 194 South Alabama W 76 - 71 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 303 @Louisiana W 73 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 88 - 77 86%
 Tue, Feb 24 250 Southern Miss W 82 - 75 76%
 Fri, Feb 27 303 Louisiana W 76 - 66 83%
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 8 -1 +0 C- B D -1 C- B- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 3.4 7.2 10.7 2nd
3rd 1.3 12.9 5.1 19.2 3rd
4th 0.0 8.1 11.4 0.5 20.0 4th
5th 0.9 13.4 2.5 16.7 5th
6th 4.6 6.9 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.3 6.9 1.0 8.1 7th
8th 1.0 3.8 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 2.4 0.6 3.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 0.1 2.0 10th
11th 0.5 0.5 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.0 16.8 30.6 30.6 14.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 11.1% 1.6    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 14.4% 21.3% 21.3% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.3 11.3
11-7 30.6% 11.1% 11.1% 14.1 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.9 0.0 27.2
10-8 30.6% 6.2% 6.2% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 28.7
9-9 16.8% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 16.2
8-10 6.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9
7-11 1.5% 1.5
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 14.0 91.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 13.2 11.5 59.9 27.4 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%