Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#263
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#248
Pace74.0#75
Improvement+1.6#64

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#268
First Shot+2.3#116
After Offensive Rebound-5.4#358
Layup/Dunks+6.6#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#292
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement-0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#259
First Shot-1.2#220
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#257
Layups/Dunks+5.9#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#342
Freethrows-2.6#312
Improvement+1.7#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.3
.500 or above 14.3% 15.9% 5.4%
.500 or above in Conference 25.2% 26.1% 20.2%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.5% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 24.4% 22.9% 32.7%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round1.6% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Home) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 48 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 10   @ LSU L 39-101 2%     0 - 1 -42.6 -26.8 -12.0
  Nov 12, 2021 21   @ Auburn L 65-93 3%     0 - 2 -11.1 -4.7 -4.4
  Nov 22, 2021 344   Northwestern St. W 96-66 77%     1 - 2 +16.6 +2.0 +10.5
  Nov 24, 2021 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 74-96 12%     1 - 3 -14.9 -1.9 -11.7
  Nov 28, 2021 99   @ SMU L 67-74 11%     1 - 4 +0.8 -3.5 +4.3
  Dec 04, 2021 344   Northwestern St. W 82-71 85%    
  Dec 14, 2021 158   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-78 19%    
  Dec 18, 2021 247   Southern Miss W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 20, 2021 319   @ Lamar W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 30, 2021 227   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 01, 2022 172   @ Appalachian St. L 64-72 21%    
  Jan 06, 2022 289   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 229   Arkansas St. W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 13, 2022 138   @ Texas St. L 63-74 17%    
  Jan 15, 2022 234   @ Texas Arlington L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 20, 2022 240   Troy W 71-70 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 157   South Alabama L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 27, 2022 176   Georgia Southern L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 141   Georgia St. L 75-79 34%    
  Feb 03, 2022 229   @ Arkansas St. L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 05, 2022 289   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 10, 2022 234   Texas Arlington W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 138   Texas St. L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 17, 2022 186   Louisiana L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 186   @ Louisiana L 73-80 25%    
  Feb 24, 2022 141   @ Georgia St. L 72-82 18%    
  Feb 25, 2022 176   @ Georgia Southern L 65-73 25%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.6 0.3 4.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 3.9 1.0 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.1 2.1 0.2 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.9 3.6 0.4 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.9 0.8 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 4.7 5.5 1.5 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.9 5.3 1.9 0.2 14.8 11th
12th 0.4 1.8 3.1 4.9 4.1 1.3 0.1 15.7 12th
Total 0.4 1.8 3.5 7.0 10.8 12.6 13.4 13.4 11.7 9.5 6.4 4.2 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 54.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 99.4% 0.3    0.3 0.1
14-4 59.9% 0.3    0.2 0.2
13-5 35.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 7.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 54.5% 54.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 13.4% 13.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.6% 29.4% 29.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.3% 11.5% 11.5% 14.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.9% 12.6% 12.6% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.5
11-7 4.2% 6.7% 6.7% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.9
10-8 6.4% 4.7% 4.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.1
9-9 9.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.7 0.1 0.1 9.4
8-10 11.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 11.6
7-11 13.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.3
6-12 13.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.4
5-13 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.6
4-14 10.8% 10.8
3-15 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.0
2-16 3.5% 3.5
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%