Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#265
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#241
Pace66.9#220
Improvement+2.5#3

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#284
First Shot-4.4#312
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#115
Layup/Dunks-4.0#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#286
Freethrows-1.3#281
Improvement+1.0#42

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#240
First Shot-0.1#177
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#330
Layups/Dunks+3.7#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#238
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#343
Freethrows+1.2#93
Improvement+1.5#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 62.4% 77.5% 42.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 32 - 54 - 13
Quad 46 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 42   @ Texas A&M L 54-87 5%     0 - 1 -19.6 -17.9 +1.3
  Nov 17, 2022 15   @ TCU L 60-95 3%     0 - 2 -17.6 -8.8 -5.5
  Nov 21, 2022 137   @ Louisiana Tech L 58-79 17%     0 - 3 -16.5 -14.7 -1.1
  Nov 25, 2022 310   Nebraska Omaha L 56-63 60%     0 - 4 -15.1 -14.8 -1.1
  Nov 26, 2022 333   Loyola Maryland L 64-65 68%     0 - 5 -11.2 -3.6 -7.8
  Nov 28, 2022 77   @ Tulane L 60-75 9%     0 - 6 -5.4 -7.1 +1.1
  Dec 10, 2022 225   @ Northwestern St. L 73-91 31%     0 - 7 -18.3 -0.9 -17.5
  Dec 14, 2022 82   Sam Houston St. L 53-79 19%     0 - 8 -22.2 -14.6 -8.5
  Dec 17, 2022 357   Lamar W 83-59 88%     1 - 8 +5.8 +2.3 +3.9
  Dec 20, 2022 197   Jacksonville L 55-66 45%     1 - 9 -15.1 -16.2 +0.4
  Dec 29, 2022 209   @ Texas St. W 57-53 27%     2 - 9 1 - 0 +4.7 -6.8 +12.0
  Dec 31, 2022 311   @ Arkansas St. W 84-72 49%     3 - 9 2 - 0 +6.6 +16.2 -8.5
  Jan 05, 2023 231   Georgia St. W 66-58 53%     4 - 9 3 - 0 +1.6 -2.0 +4.2
  Jan 07, 2023 111   Southern Miss L 60-65 27%     4 - 10 3 - 1 -4.2 -3.2 -1.8
  Jan 12, 2023 112   Louisiana L 73-86 27%     4 - 11 3 - 2 -12.3 -5.0 -6.5
  Jan 14, 2023 209   Texas St. W 61-58 47%     5 - 11 4 - 2 -1.7 -3.9 +2.6
  Jan 19, 2023 227   @ Georgia Southern W 72-59 31%     6 - 11 5 - 2 +12.7 +13.4 +1.8
  Jan 21, 2023 149   @ Troy L 53-77 19%     6 - 12 5 - 3 -20.3 -14.8 -6.3
  Jan 26, 2023 78   @ Marshall W 86-82 2OT 9%     7 - 12 6 - 3 +13.4 +1.4 +11.3
  Jan 28, 2023 96   @ James Madison L 45-58 11%     7 - 13 6 - 4 -5.3 -18.8 +12.3
  Feb 02, 2023 246   Coastal Carolina W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 04, 2023 182   South Alabama L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 09, 2023 179   Appalachian St. L 63-66 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 111   @ Southern Miss L 62-74 13%    
  Feb 16, 2023 112   @ Louisiana L 66-78 13%    
  Feb 18, 2023 182   @ South Alabama L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 22, 2023 149   Troy L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 24, 2023 311   Arkansas St. W 67-62 70%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 1.4 0.1 3.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 4.7 0.6 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 9.5 3.2 0.1 14.8 5th
6th 0.5 9.0 7.1 0.3 0.0 16.9 6th
7th 0.0 4.2 11.9 1.6 17.7 7th
8th 0.5 9.6 4.5 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 0.0 2.6 7.4 0.5 10.6 9th
10th 0.2 4.7 2.1 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.9 2.9 0.2 4.0 11th
12th 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.2 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 2.2 11.3 24.1 28.2 20.7 10.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 84.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 38.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.5
12-6 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.9
11-7 10.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.9
10-8 20.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.6
9-9 28.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 28.1
8-10 24.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.0
7-11 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
6-12 2.2% 2.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.2%