IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.3	#238
Expected Predictive Rating	-4.6	#240

Pace	65.5	#286
Improvement	+0.8	#121

Offense
Total Offense	-3.8	#270

First Shot	-1.2	#213
After Offensive Rebound	-2.6	#325

Layup/Dunks	+4.7	#46
2 Pt Jumpshots	+3.3	#35
3 Pt Jumpshots	-9.0	#360
Freethrows	-0.2	#186

Improvement	+1.4	#69

Defense
Total Defense	-0.5	#177

First Shot	-2.4	#257
After Offensive Rebounds	+1.9	#66

Layups/Dunks	-1.8	#249
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.6	#73
3 Pt Jumpshots	-0.4	#200
Freethrows	-1.8	#290

Improvement	-0.5	#234

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.3%	4.9%	2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.8	15.0

.500 or above	47.3%	61.2%	36.7%
.500 or above in Conference	53.6%	67.8%	42.8%
Conference Champion	4.0%	7.3%	1.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.6%	1.0%	3.8%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	3.2%	4.9%	1.9%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 43.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 8	3 - 10
Quad 4	12 - 5	14 - 15

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Mon, Nov 3	131 @Bowling Green	L	48-83	18%	0 - 1			-29.7	-21.1	-8.4
Sat, Nov 8	183 @Tulane	L	71-79	30%	0 - 2			-6.7	-0.5	-6.7
Wed, Nov 12	282 Texas San Antonio	W	80-69	69%	1 - 2			+1.6	+4.0	-2.4
Sat, Nov 15	305 Texas Southern	W	77-67	74%	2 - 2			-1.1	-1.1	-0.1
Tue, Nov 18	221 Abilene Christian	W	63-49	59%	3 - 2			+7.4	-4.0	+13.0
Fri, Nov 21	321 Arkansas Little Rock	W	65-56	77%	4 - 2			-3.1	-8.2	+5.9
Fri, Nov 28	115 Seattle	L	52-66	24%	4 - 3			-10.7	-10.3	-2.5
Sat, Nov 29	308 Lehigh	L	74-78 OT	65%	4 - 4			-12.2	-2.9	-9.3
Wed, Dec 3	211 @Rice	L	72-77	35%	4 - 5			-5.3	+1.2	-6.7
Wed, Dec 10	205 Southern	W	86-83	56%	5 - 5			-2.9	+1.3	-4.5
Wed, Dec 17	149 Arkansas St.	L	74-76	43%
Sat, Dec 20	172 South Alabama	L	66-67	49%
Wed, Dec 31	147 @Troy	L	65-73	23%
Sat, Jan 3	357 @Louisiana Monroe	W	75-68	75%
Thu, Jan 8	219 @Southern Miss	L	69-73	37%
Sat, Jan 10	149 @Arkansas St.	L	71-79	24%
Wed, Jan 14	320 Louisiana	W	68-60	76%
Sat, Jan 17	219 Southern Miss	W	72-70	58%
Thu, Jan 22	240 @Coastal Carolina	L	68-71	40%
Sat, Jan 24	180 @James Madison	L	67-73	30%
Wed, Jan 28	154 Marshall	L	71-72	45%
Sat, Jan 31	222 Old Dominion	W	72-70	59%
Wed, Feb 4	234 @Georgia Southern	L	72-75	39%
Wed, Feb 11	147 Troy	L	68-70	43%
Sat, Feb 14	357 Louisiana Monroe	W	78-65	88%
Thu, Feb 19	172 @South Alabama	L	64-70	28%
Sat, Feb 21	320 @Louisiana	W	65-63	56%
Fri, Feb 27	256 Appalachian St.	W	66-62	64%
Projected Record					14 - 14	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.1	1.3	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0		4.0	1st
2nd												0.2	1.6	2.0	0.7	0.1	0.0				4.8	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.8	3.0	1.2	0.2	0.0					6.1	3rd
4th										0.0	1.1	4.3	1.9	0.1							7.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	3.8	3.4	0.3								8.0	5th
6th									0.2	2.9	4.8	1.0	0.0								8.9	6th
7th								0.1	1.4	5.7	2.5	0.1									9.7	7th
8th							0.0	0.7	4.7	4.4	0.4	0.0									10.3	8th
9th						0.0	0.5	3.5	5.4	1.2	0.0										10.6	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	2.5	5.1	2.2	0.1											10.3	10th
11th				0.0	0.3	1.9	4.0	2.4	0.3	0.0											8.8	11th
12th			0.0	0.3	1.4	2.6	1.8	0.3	0.0												6.4	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.0													3.4	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0														1.1	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.5	3.2	5.7	8.9	12.1	14.3	14.8	12.8	10.8	7.1	4.4	2.2	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	98.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
15-3	87.7%	1.0		0.7	0.2	0.0
14-4	59.3%	1.3		0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	24.4%	1.1		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.9%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0		0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.0%	4.0		1.9	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																		0.0					0.0
17-1	0.1%		4.5%	4.5%		13.0														0.0				0.1
16-2	0.3%		28.6%	28.6%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.2
15-3	1.1%		26.5%	26.5%		14.1														0.0	0.2	0.1		0.8
14-4	2.2%		23.5%	23.5%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0	1.7
13-5	4.4%		16.6%	16.6%		14.8														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	3.7
12-6	7.1%		8.6%	8.6%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	6.5
11-7	10.8%		5.0%	5.0%		15.2															0.0	0.3	0.2	10.2
10-8	12.8%		2.2%	2.2%		15.4															0.0	0.2	0.1	12.5
9-9	14.8%		1.0%	1.0%		15.6																0.1	0.1	14.6
8-10	14.3%		0.3%	0.3%		15.8																0.0	0.0	14.2
7-11	12.1%		0.1%	0.1%		15.7																0.0	0.0	12.1
6-12	8.9%																							8.9
5-13	5.7%																							5.7
4-14	3.2%																							3.2
3-15	1.5%																							1.5
2-16	0.6%																							0.6
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		3.3%	3.3%	0.0%	14.9													0.0	0.1	0.8	1.7	0.7	96.7		0.0%