Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#138
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#83
Pace62.1#334
Improvement+1.5#68

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#137
First Shot+2.8#100
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#273
Layup/Dunks-0.7#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#334
Freethrows+2.4#46
Improvement-0.9#273

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#139
First Shot-0.6#191
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#86
Layups/Dunks+3.6#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#321
Freethrows-2.5#306
Improvement+2.5#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 20.6% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 93.1% 94.0% 82.3%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 89.0% 81.7%
Conference Champion 30.2% 31.4% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.8% 1.7%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round19.8% 20.4% 12.7%
Second Round2.4% 2.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 350   @ Incarnate Word W 75-57 89%     1 - 0 +6.3 +4.3 +4.4
  Nov 12, 2021 10   @ LSU L 59-84 6%     1 - 1 -5.6 -1.0 -6.0
  Nov 14, 2021 77   @ Vanderbilt L 60-79 23%     1 - 2 -9.1 -3.2 -7.0
  Nov 19, 2021 306   Dixie St. W 85-65 83%     2 - 2 +11.9 +6.9 +5.1
  Nov 20, 2021 203   Eastern Washington W 81-74 65%     3 - 2 +5.2 +4.3 +0.7
  Nov 30, 2021 184   @ Rice W 80-69 50%     4 - 2 +12.9 +2.1 +10.5
  Dec 05, 2021 326   Denver W 74-59 92%    
  Dec 15, 2021 319   Lamar W 76-62 90%    
  Dec 22, 2021 7   @ Houston L 53-72 4%    
  Dec 30, 2021 240   Troy W 69-60 79%    
  Jan 01, 2022 157   South Alabama W 68-64 66%    
  Jan 06, 2022 176   @ Georgia Southern L 63-64 51%    
  Jan 08, 2022 141   @ Georgia St. L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 13, 2022 263   Louisiana Monroe W 74-63 83%    
  Jan 15, 2022 186   Louisiana W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 20, 2022 289   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 229   @ Arkansas St. W 67-65 59%    
  Jan 27, 2022 234   @ Texas Arlington W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 234   Texas Arlington W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 03, 2022 172   Appalachian St. W 65-60 68%    
  Feb 05, 2022 227   Coastal Carolina W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 10, 2022 186   @ Louisiana W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 263   @ Louisiana Monroe W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 17, 2022 229   Arkansas St. W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 19, 2022 289   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 24, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 26, 2022 240   @ Troy W 66-63 61%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 4.6 7.9 8.3 5.1 2.3 0.5 30.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 5.7 6.3 4.6 1.3 0.2 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.2 5.5 1.6 0.4 14.0 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 4.5 1.6 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.3 1.6 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 1.1 3.1 1.7 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.4 2.1 1.5 0.2 4.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.5 2.5 9th
10th 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.8 5.3 7.3 10.6 13.1 14.4 12.6 12.9 9.6 5.2 2.3 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
16-2 97.0% 5.1    4.8 0.3
15-3 86.8% 8.3    6.5 1.7 0.1
14-4 61.3% 7.9    4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 36.4% 4.6    1.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.2% 1.5    0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.2% 30.2 20.4 7.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 65.5% 61.5% 4.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10.3%
17-1 2.3% 53.9% 51.3% 2.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 5.4%
16-2 5.2% 42.3% 42.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.0
15-3 9.6% 32.1% 32.1% 13.3 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.1 6.5
14-4 12.9% 28.1% 28.1% 13.7 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 9.3
13-5 12.6% 25.9% 25.9% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.8 0.0 9.4
12-6 14.4% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.1 11.9
11-7 13.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.2 11.2
10-8 10.6% 11.4% 11.4% 14.9 0.3 0.7 0.2 9.4
9-9 7.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 6.9
8-10 5.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.2
7-11 2.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.7
6-12 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.0% 19.9% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.9 5.3 6.7 4.8 0.9 80.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.2 3.2 64.5 32.3