Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#209
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#204
Pace61.8#327
Improvement+0.1#167

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#274
First Shot-4.6#315
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#77
Layup/Dunks+0.0#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.3#357
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement-0.6#289

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#137
First Shot+0.7#147
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#139
Layups/Dunks+2.3#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
Freethrows-2.0#317
Improvement+0.8#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 26.8% 51.3% 20.1%
.500 or above in Conference 26.8% 51.3% 20.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.3% 2.0%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round1.4% 2.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 21.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 33 - 55 - 11
Quad 47 - 513 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 63   @ Washington St. L 61-83 11%     0 - 1 -10.8 -1.0 -11.5
  Nov 12, 2022 198   @ Rhode Island W 70-66 37%     1 - 1 +5.3 -1.6 +6.8
  Nov 17, 2022 312   @ Texas San Antonio L 56-61 63%     1 - 2 -10.4 -17.6 +6.9
  Nov 21, 2022 224   @ California W 59-55 43%     2 - 2 +3.8 -2.3 +6.8
  Nov 25, 2022 114   Southern Utah W 78-65 31%     3 - 2 +16.1 +4.5 +11.5
  Nov 26, 2022 134   Hawaii L 65-72 35%     3 - 3 -5.2 +4.2 -10.3
  Dec 01, 2022 357   @ Lamar W 65-55 84%     4 - 3 -2.8 -5.7 +4.3
  Dec 04, 2022 170   Rice L 71-83 53%     4 - 4 -14.7 -5.7 -9.0
  Dec 10, 2022 274   Texas Arlington W 71-65 64%     5 - 4 +0.2 +3.3 -2.5
  Dec 17, 2022 82   Sam Houston St. L 62-69 29%     5 - 5 -3.2 -1.3 -2.5
  Dec 29, 2022 265   Louisiana Monroe L 53-57 73%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -12.2 -17.1 +4.4
  Dec 31, 2022 149   Troy L 52-55 49%     5 - 7 0 - 2 -4.8 -17.8 +12.8
  Jan 05, 2023 96   @ James Madison W 63-62 18%     6 - 7 1 - 2 +8.7 -0.5 +9.3
  Jan 07, 2023 182   @ South Alabama W 64-58 34%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +8.2 +0.6 +8.3
  Jan 12, 2023 311   @ Arkansas St. W 61-58 63%     8 - 7 3 - 2 -2.4 -8.6 +6.4
  Jan 14, 2023 265   @ Louisiana Monroe L 58-61 53%     8 - 8 3 - 3 -5.8 -7.7 +1.6
  Jan 19, 2023 78   Marshall L 73-81 28%     8 - 9 3 - 4 -4.1 +4.5 -9.0
  Jan 21, 2023 112   Louisiana L 51-60 39%     8 - 10 3 - 5 -8.3 -15.6 +6.0
  Jan 26, 2023 227   Georgia Southern W 70-67 64%     9 - 10 4 - 5 -2.8 +0.8 -3.3
  Jan 28, 2023 111   @ Southern Miss L 58-67 22%     9 - 11 4 - 6 -2.8 -5.5 +1.8
  Feb 02, 2023 112   @ Louisiana L 64-72 21%    
  Feb 04, 2023 149   @ Troy L 60-66 29%    
  Feb 09, 2023 311   Arkansas St. W 65-56 80%    
  Feb 11, 2023 176   Old Dominion W 62-61 54%    
  Feb 16, 2023 179   @ Appalachian St. L 59-63 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 246   @ Coastal Carolina L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 22, 2023 182   South Alabama W 64-63 56%    
  Feb 24, 2023 111   Southern Miss L 63-66 41%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 0.9 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.4 5.3 2.5 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 3.5 7.2 0.6 11.3 7th
8th 0.7 9.4 3.1 0.0 13.3 8th
9th 0.1 5.0 9.1 0.5 14.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 10.8 3.1 0.0 15.4 10th
11th 0.4 5.7 7.3 0.3 13.6 11th
12th 0.2 2.9 7.2 1.5 0.0 11.8 12th
13th 0.5 2.1 1.3 0.1 3.9 13th
14th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.8 5.5 15.7 25.4 25.7 17.4 7.4 1.8 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 5.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 6.4% 6.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.8% 3.7% 3.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-8 7.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.1
9-9 17.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 17.0
8-10 25.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 25.2
7-11 25.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 25.0
6-12 15.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 15.6
5-13 5.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.5
4-14 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 6.4% 13.9 0.9 5.5
Lose Out 0.8% 0.9% 16.0 0.9