Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#135
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#134
Pace69.9#174
Improvement-2.1#333

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#156
First Shot+1.0#146
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#223
Layup/Dunks+1.6#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#236
Freethrows+3.1#37
Improvement-1.4#306

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#118
First Shot+2.0#106
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#218
Layups/Dunks+4.7#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#146
Freethrows-1.8#284
Improvement-0.7#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.8% 26.6% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 93.7% 95.0% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 95.6% 91.9%
Conference Champion 37.2% 38.2% 28.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.8% 26.6% 20.0%
Second Round2.1% 2.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 7
Quad 412 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 124 @Kent St. W 103-97 OT 35%     1 - 0 +11.8 +11.9 -1.3
  Fri, Nov 7 161 @Furman W 64-61 48%     2 - 0 +5.2 -6.3 +11.7
  Fri, Nov 14 128 @Loyola Marymount L 63-74 37%     2 - 1 -5.9 -4.0 -1.9
  Sun, Nov 16 280 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-94 69%     2 - 2 -12.5 +7.8 -19.9
  Tue, Nov 18 56 @San Diego St. W 108-107 2OT 15%     3 - 2 +13.7 +16.9 -3.4
  Thu, Nov 20 29 @USC L 106-107 3OT 9%     3 - 3 +15.4 +7.5 +8.2
  Mon, Nov 24 171 Toledo L 68-75 61%     3 - 4 -8.2 -7.6 -0.7
  Wed, Nov 26 358 St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 92%     4 - 4 -3.8 -7.0 +2.7
  Mon, Dec 1 311 West Georgia W 79-66 89%    
  Sun, Dec 14 107 @UAB L 73-79 30%    
  Sat, Dec 20 181 Marshall W 80-74 72%    
  Wed, Dec 31 210 Texas St. W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 179 South Alabama W 71-65 71%    
  Wed, Jan 7 167 @Arkansas St. L 77-78 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 325 @Louisiana W 70-63 75%    
  Wed, Jan 14 236 Southern Miss W 78-69 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 167 Arkansas St. W 81-75 70%    
  Wed, Jan 21 218 @Old Dominion W 74-72 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 249 @Georgia Southern W 79-75 63%    
  Thu, Jan 29 148 James Madison W 77-72 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 278 Appalachian St. W 73-62 84%    
  Wed, Feb 4 337 @Georgia St. W 76-67 80%    
  Wed, Feb 11 210 @Texas St. W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 236 @Southern Miss W 75-72 62%    
  Wed, Feb 18 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 83-70 88%    
  Sat, Feb 21 179 @South Alabama W 68-67 51%    
  Tue, Feb 24 325 Louisiana W 73-60 89%    
  Fri, Feb 27 361 Louisiana Monroe W 86-67 95%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.5 8.6 10.8 8.5 4.1 1.1 37.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.3 7.5 6.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.7 4.1 1.0 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.4 7.5 10.8 14.0 15.8 15.6 12.9 8.8 4.2 1.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 99.7% 4.1    4.1 0.1
16-2 96.4% 8.5    7.6 0.9 0.0
15-3 83.9% 10.8    7.7 2.9 0.3
14-4 55.2% 8.6    3.9 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.1% 3.5    0.7 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.2% 37.2 25.1 9.0 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 59.1% 58.8% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7%
17-1 4.2% 54.9% 54.9% 12.2 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.9
16-2 8.8% 49.2% 49.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.5
15-3 12.9% 40.9% 40.9% 13.1 0.0 1.0 2.9 1.3 0.1 7.6
14-4 15.6% 33.8% 33.8% 13.4 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.9 0.3 10.3
13-5 15.8% 25.0% 25.0% 13.6 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 11.9
12-6 14.0% 16.6% 16.6% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 11.7
11-7 10.8% 10.0% 10.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.7
10-8 7.5% 5.9% 5.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.1
9-9 4.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3
8-10 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
7-11 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.8 10.7 7.6 1.8 0.1 74.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.7 1.1 5.7 8.0 12.5 52.3 20.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 2.9% 11.0 2.9