Marshall
Sun Belt
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#78
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#111
Pace78.4#15
Improvement-0.3#224

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#63
First Shot+3.4#75
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#96
Layup/Dunks+2.5#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#241
Freethrows-2.6#342
Improvement+0.3#125

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#110
First Shot+3.3#76
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#291
Layups/Dunks-1.7#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#96
Freethrows+3.0#16
Improvement-0.6#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.1% 34.7% 30.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.3%
Conference Champion 29.1% 37.1% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round32.9% 34.4% 30.2%
Second Round7.8% 8.7% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.3% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Away) - 64.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 37 - 410 - 6
Quad 413 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 221   @ Queens L 82-83 74%     0 - 1 -1.0 +1.2 -2.2
  Nov 14, 2022 303   Tennessee Tech W 91-65 94%     1 - 1 +15.5 +7.8 +6.7
  Nov 17, 2022 297   @ Miami (OH) W 95-69 85%     2 - 1 +21.4 +1.6 +15.7
  Nov 19, 2022 345   Coppin St. W 86-67 97%     3 - 1 +4.3 -5.2 +7.3
  Nov 21, 2022 317   Chicago St. W 82-70 94%     4 - 1 +0.9 +4.9 -3.5
  Nov 26, 2022 278   Morehead St. W 83-59 92%     5 - 1 +15.1 +5.2 +9.9
  Nov 30, 2022 108   Akron W 68-57 71%     6 - 1 +12.0 -4.9 +16.6
  Dec 03, 2022 153   Ohio W 83-69 80%     7 - 1 +11.9 +8.0 +4.2
  Dec 08, 2022 126   @ Duquesne W 82-71 56%     8 - 1 +16.1 +6.5 +9.1
  Dec 10, 2022 242   @ Robert Morris W 69-60 78%     9 - 1 +7.5 -7.0 +14.0
  Dec 13, 2022 138   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-75 59%     9 - 2 -3.6 +2.0 -5.7
  Dec 17, 2022 104   Toledo W 100-85 70%     10 - 2 +16.4 +16.6 -1.0
  Dec 29, 2022 179   Appalachian St. W 79-53 82%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +23.0 +10.4 +13.7
  Dec 31, 2022 96   James Madison L 66-72 67%     11 - 3 1 - 1 -3.8 -7.8 +4.4
  Jan 05, 2023 227   @ Georgia Southern L 76-81 75%     11 - 4 1 - 2 -5.3 +5.3 -10.7
  Jan 07, 2023 246   Coastal Carolina W 81-66 90%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +7.9 -0.6 +7.9
  Jan 12, 2023 111   Southern Miss W 89-67 72%     13 - 4 3 - 2 +22.8 +11.2 +10.2
  Jan 14, 2023 176   Old Dominion W 73-65 82%     14 - 4 4 - 2 +5.1 +3.4 +2.1
  Jan 19, 2023 209   @ Texas St. W 81-73 72%     15 - 4 5 - 2 +8.7 +14.7 -5.5
  Jan 21, 2023 311   @ Arkansas St. W 87-78 OT 87%     16 - 4 6 - 2 +3.6 +5.9 -2.9
  Jan 26, 2023 265   Louisiana Monroe L 82-86 2OT 91%     16 - 5 6 - 3 -12.2 -8.8 -2.8
  Jan 28, 2023 231   Georgia St. W 103-65 88%     17 - 5 7 - 3 +31.6 +16.1 +10.4
  Feb 02, 2023 179   @ Appalachian St. W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 04, 2023 112   @ Louisiana W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 09, 2023 246   @ Coastal Carolina W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 11, 2023 231   @ Georgia St. W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 16, 2023 227   Georgia Southern W 80-68 88%    
  Feb 18, 2023 149   Troy W 78-70 79%    
  Feb 22, 2023 96   @ James Madison L 78-79 45%    
  Feb 24, 2023 176   @ Old Dominion W 74-70 64%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 9.1 13.6 5.1 29.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 8.9 14.3 4.1 0.1 28.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.9 11.9 3.9 0.1 21.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 7.8 3.5 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 2.4 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.6 1.6 0.2 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.1 15.9 25.6 27.4 17.8 5.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 97.4% 5.1    4.2 0.9 0.0
14-4 76.5% 13.6    7.0 5.8 0.9 0.0
13-5 33.3% 9.1    1.7 4.1 2.8 0.5 0.0
12-6 4.9% 1.2    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 12.9 11.0 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 5.2% 48.7% 43.1% 5.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.7 9.8%
14-4 17.8% 39.3% 38.8% 0.4% 11.9 0.0 1.8 4.2 0.9 0.0 10.8 0.7%
13-5 27.4% 34.9% 34.9% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.9 5.6 2.9 0.2 17.9 0.0%
12-6 25.6% 30.9% 30.9% 12.6 0.2 3.6 3.7 0.4 0.0 17.7
11-7 15.9% 26.8% 26.8% 12.8 0.0 1.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 11.6
10-8 6.1% 23.2% 23.2% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 4.7
9-9 1.6% 20.3% 20.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3
8-10 0.2% 16.4% 16.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.1% 32.7% 0.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.4 15.7 11.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 66.9 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 48.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 3.1 28.5 15.9 1.0