Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#181
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#114
Pace77.7#32
Improvement-4.1#362

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#194
First Shot-1.0#202
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#188
Layup/Dunks-4.9#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#48
Freethrows-1.4#267
Improvement-0.8#262

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#176
First Shot-3.6#297
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#23
Layups/Dunks+1.0#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#141
Freethrows-1.9#295
Improvement-3.2#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 13.7% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 82.4% 93.3% 79.9%
.500 or above in Conference 78.8% 86.2% 77.1%
Conference Champion 12.2% 17.6% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round10.3% 13.7% 9.5%
Second Round0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 177 @Massachusetts W 78-72 38%     1 - 0 +7.6 -3.7 +10.4
  Sat, Nov 8 171 @Toledo W 85-73 37%     2 - 0 +13.8 +8.7 +4.9
  Wed, Nov 12 187 Elon W 96-89 62%     3 - 0 +2.2 +9.2 -7.6
  Sat, Nov 15 37 @Virginia L 78-104 7%     3 - 1 -10.6 +4.5 -13.1
  Thu, Nov 20 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-70 94%     4 - 1 +9.3 +7.6 -0.8
  Sun, Nov 23 319 Mercyhurst W 69-60 82%     5 - 1 -2.5 -0.4 -1.0
  Wed, Nov 26 170 Lipscomb L 67-90 60%     5 - 2 -27.2 -12.9 -11.9
  Wed, Dec 3 102 @UNC Wilmington L 70-79 19%    
  Sat, Dec 6 209 @Ohio L 80-81 44%    
  Wed, Dec 10 123 Western Kentucky L 81-82 45%    
  Sat, Dec 13 155 Wright St. W 77-75 56%    
  Sat, Dec 20 135 @Troy L 74-80 28%    
  Wed, Dec 31 337 Georgia St. W 82-70 87%    
  Sat, Jan 3 278 Appalachian St. W 75-67 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 148 @James Madison L 76-81 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 337 @Georgia St. W 79-73 71%    
  Wed, Jan 14 252 Coastal Carolina W 81-75 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 148 James Madison W 79-78 55%    
  Thu, Jan 22 361 Louisiana Monroe W 89-73 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 179 South Alabama W 73-70 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 210 @Texas St. L 72-73 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 167 @Arkansas St. L 80-84 38%    
  Wed, Feb 4 236 Southern Miss W 80-74 70%    
  Wed, Feb 11 218 @Old Dominion L 77-78 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 249 @Georgia Southern W 82-81 51%    
  Thu, Feb 19 278 @Appalachian St. W 72-70 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 252 @Coastal Carolina W 78-77 51%    
  Tue, Feb 24 218 Old Dominion W 80-75 66%    
  Fri, Feb 27 249 Georgia Southern W 84-78 71%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.9 3.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 12.2 1st
2nd 0.4 2.7 5.1 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 5.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.1 4.6 0.8 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 5.1 1.4 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.6 2.4 0.2 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.0 0.2 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.8 8.7 11.7 13.4 14.3 13.2 10.8 8.1 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.5% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 95.4% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 77.5% 3.5    2.2 1.2 0.1
14-4 47.8% 3.9    1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.3% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 6.6 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 45.7% 45.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 45.6% 45.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.1% 44.3% 44.3% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.5% 32.3% 32.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0
14-4 8.1% 27.7% 27.7% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.8
13-5 10.8% 20.1% 20.1% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.0 8.6
12-6 13.2% 12.4% 12.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 11.6
11-7 14.3% 6.5% 6.5% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 13.4
10-8 13.4% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.0
9-9 11.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.5
8-10 8.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.6
7-11 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 3.6% 3.6
5-13 1.8% 1.8
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.4 2.6 0.3 89.7 0.0%