Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.5 #165
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 #163
Pace 72.8 #77
Improvement -3.4 #316

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #149 C+ B- D+ D+ D
Defense #192 C C+ C D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #351 1.31 #41 -2.9 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #87 0.71 #255 +1.1 #111
Three Pointers 45% #96 1.06 #120 +3.0 #84
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #139 +1.3 #139
Freethrows 0.26 #311 74% #119 0.19 #287
Second Chance 32.0% #138 1.15 #59 0.37 #77
Turnovers 17.9% #278
Total Offense +0.3 #149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.15 #170 +2.1 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #83 0.76 #179 -1.1 #275
Three Pointers 41% #173 1.01 #170 +0.0 #175
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #146 +1.0 #144
Freethrows 0.35 #317 72% #144 0.25 #311
Second Chance 32.6% #276 0.90 #34 0.29 #112
Turnovers 16.2% #189
Total Defense -0.8 #192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #316 -1.3% #74
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.9% #97 -0.5% #176
Possession Length 15.7 #45 17.8 #253
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #94 0.18 #216
Improvement -0.8 #230 -2.5 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 15.8% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.0
.500 or above 95.1% 98.7% 92.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 95.9% 82.2%
Conference Champion 3.2% 6.2% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.1% 15.8% 8.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 38.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 37 - 57 - 8
Quad 412 - 519 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 171 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 40% +5  1 - 0 +8 -4 A C F +11 C A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 163 @Toledo W 85 - 73 38% -1  2 - 0 +15 +9 A D- D- +5 B B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 181 Elon W 96 - 89 66% +6  3 - 0 +2 +9 B+ A+ D -7 C+ C D
 Sat, Nov 15 22 @Virginia L 78 - 104 4% -20  3 - 1 -6 +7 C- A+ F+ -12 C- D+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 326 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 88% +5  4 - 1 +15 +10 A+ F C+ +2 A C+ B
 Sun, Nov 23 299 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 84% +5  5 - 1 -2 +1 B+ F+ C -2 B+ C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 174 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 64% -17  5 - 2 -27 -14 F B- F -11 F A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 115 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 26% -1  5 - 3 +5 +7 C- A+ F -2 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 214 @Ohio L 81 - 88 49% -6  5 - 4 -7 +5 C- B C -12 D- C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 10 168 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 62% +7  6 - 4 +13 +5 D+ B+ A+ +7 B- A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 147 Wright St. W 76 - 74 57% -1  7 - 4 -0 +9 C+ A C -9 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 120 @Troy L 63 - 70 28% -6  7 - 5 0 - 1 -1 -8 F D D- +6 A B+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 276 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 80% +2  8 - 5 1 - 1 -5 +3 B- A F+ -9 D D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 196 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 68% +8  9 - 5 2 - 1 +2 +14 A+ F B+ -12 D D- C
 Wed, Jan 7 193 @James Madison W 66 - 64 45% +8  10 - 5 3 - 1 +3 +0 F B+ B +3 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 276 @Georgia St. L 73 - 81 61% +3  10 - 6 3 - 2 -11 -3 D+ C+ F -8 B- F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 234 Coastal Carolina L 83 - 85 74% -5  10 - 7 3 - 3 -9 +9 A- D+ B+ -19 F C+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 193 James Madison W 77 - 72 68% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 -0 +1 D B+ F -1 B- F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 361 Louisiana Monroe W 115 - 60 94% +28  12 - 7 5 - 3 +36 +27 A+ A+ D +6 A+ C- C-
 Wed, Jan 28 271 @Texas St. L 68 - 72 60% -4  12 - 8 5 - 4 -7 -3 D F+ A+ -4 D+ F+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 158 @Arkansas St. L 81 - 84 38%
 Wed, Feb 4 264 Southern Miss W 80 - 72 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 93 Miami (OH) L 81 - 84 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 223 @Old Dominion W 78 - 77 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 250 @Georgia Southern W 82 - 81 56%
 Mon, Feb 16 188 South Alabama W 74 - 69 66%
 Thu, Feb 19 196 @Appalachian St. L 69 - 70 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 234 @Coastal Carolina W 75 - 74 53%
 Tue, Feb 24 223 Old Dominion W 80 - 74 72%
 Fri, Feb 27 250 Georgia Southern W 85 - 78 76%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +0 +0 C+ B- D+ -1 C C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.7 3.2 1st
2nd 0.1 4.4 10.7 5.3 0.6 21.1 2nd
3rd 1.3 10.8 4.2 0.2 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 6.1 6.8 0.2 13.1 4th
5th 0.6 9.4 1.2 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 3.6 5.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 6.6 1.0 7.7 7th
8th 1.4 4.8 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 3.3 1.1 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.9 0.1 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 0.7 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.3 8.5 16.8 23.1 23.2 15.9 7.1 1.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 54.0% 0.7    0.3 0.4
13-5 23.3% 1.6    0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 0.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.4% 38.7% 38.7% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.8
13-5 7.1% 31.0% 31.0% 13.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 4.9
12-6 15.9% 20.5% 20.5% 13.9 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 12.7
11-7 23.2% 11.9% 11.9% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 20.4
10-8 23.1% 7.0% 7.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 21.4
9-9 16.8% 3.7% 3.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 16.2
8-10 8.5% 2.1% 2.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.3
7-11 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 3.3
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 13.9 88.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.4 66.0 30.2 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%