Louisiana
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#317
Expected Predictive Rating-13.6#345
Pace63.3#329
Improvement-1.5#299

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#344
First Shot-6.0#332
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#241
Layup/Dunks-0.5#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#322
Freethrows-2.7#318
Improvement-2.9#356

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#224
First Shot-2.4#257
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#142
Layups/Dunks-2.2#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#146
Freethrows-3.5#336
Improvement+1.4#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 1.6% 4.6% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 19.6% 26.9% 17.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 9.1% 14.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Away) - 18.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 47 - 99 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 305 @Ball St. L 64-75 35%     0 - 1 -15.7 -5.2 -11.5
  Fri, Nov 7 243 SE Louisiana W 58-52 45%     1 - 1 -1.6 -3.9 +3.5
  Tue, Nov 11 169 Tulane L 62-66 32%     1 - 2 -7.9 -10.0 +1.7
  Fri, Nov 14 85 @McNeese St. L 62-88 6%     1 - 3 -16.6 -2.5 -15.4
  Tue, Nov 18 83 @Stanford L 66-93 5%     1 - 4 -17.5 -3.1 -13.8
  Fri, Nov 21 52 @Santa Clara L 43-80 3%     1 - 5 -23.8 -21.5 -4.3
  Mon, Nov 24 179 @UC Davis L 56-77 16%     1 - 6 -19.3 -9.9 -10.9
  Fri, Nov 28 314 Jackson St. L 45-51 60%     1 - 7 -17.4 -25.4 +7.2
  Wed, Dec 3 196 @Lamar L 58-67 19%    
  Sat, Dec 6 100 UNC Wilmington L 60-71 16%    
  Sat, Dec 13 175 @Louisiana Tech L 56-67 16%    
  Thu, Dec 18 232 @Southern Miss L 64-72 25%    
  Sat, Dec 20 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 72-69 60%    
  Sun, Dec 28 231 Norfolk St. L 62-64 44%    
  Wed, Dec 31 150 South Alabama L 61-67 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 232 Southern Miss L 67-69 45%    
  Thu, Jan 8 360 Louisiana Monroe W 75-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 147 Troy L 64-70 28%    
  Wed, Jan 14 223 @Texas St. L 60-68 24%    
  Sat, Jan 17 150 @South Alabama L 58-70 14%    
  Thu, Jan 22 279 @Appalachian St. L 60-65 32%    
  Sat, Jan 24 220 @Old Dominion L 64-72 24%    
  Thu, Jan 29 335 Georgia St. W 69-64 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 233 Georgia Southern L 70-71 46%    
  Wed, Feb 4 159 @James Madison L 63-75 15%    
  Thu, Feb 12 258 Coastal Carolina L 66-67 48%    
  Thu, Feb 19 156 Arkansas St. L 68-74 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 223 Texas St. L 63-65 43%    
  Tue, Feb 24 147 @Troy L 61-73 14%    
  Fri, Feb 27 156 @Arkansas St. L 65-77 15%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.0 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.4 0.1 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.4 0.6 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.9 1.7 0.1 12.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.8 6.8 3.3 0.3 15.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 4.7 7.1 3.8 0.5 0.0 17.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.2 3.9 5.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.8 13th
14th 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.4 14th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.7 7.4 11.6 14.7 15.5 14.6 11.6 8.3 5.4 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 90.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 82.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 50.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 22.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 17.7% 17.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.8% 9.5% 9.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7
12-6 1.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.5
11-7 3.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.1
10-8 5.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
9-9 8.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.3
8-10 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.6
7-11 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
6-12 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.5
5-13 14.7% 14.7
4-14 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.6
3-15 7.4% 7.4
2-16 3.7% 3.7
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%