Louisiana
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#325
Expected Predictive Rating-15.6#348
Pace62.2#347
Improvement-0.9#243

Offense
Total Offense-7.9#353
First Shot-5.8#333
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#314
Layup/Dunks-4.0#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#194
Freethrows-3.4#339
Improvement-1.9#317

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#236
First Shot-2.1#245
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#168
Layups/Dunks-2.5#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#13
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#127
Freethrows-4.1#354
Improvement+1.1#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.4% 25.9% 9.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.1% 6.7% 20.6%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 17.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 14
Quad 46 - 107 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 306 @Ball St. L 64-75 33%     0 - 1 -16.2 -4.1 -13.1
  Fri, Nov 7 272 SE Louisiana W 58-52 47%     1 - 1 -2.9 -5.1 +3.4
  Tue, Nov 11 205 Tulane L 62-66 36%     1 - 2 -10.0 -10.2 -0.2
  Fri, Nov 14 69 @McNeese St. L 62-88 4%     1 - 3 -15.0 -2.0 -14.4
  Tue, Nov 18 93 @Stanford L 66-93 5%     1 - 4 -18.3 -4.1 -13.7
  Fri, Nov 21 74 @Santa Clara L 43-80 4%     1 - 5 -26.2 -23.4 -4.8
  Mon, Nov 24 197 @UC Davis L 56-77 17%     1 - 6 -20.5 -10.9 -11.2
  Fri, Nov 28 315 Jackson St. L 45-51 59%     1 - 7 -18.1 -25.1 +6.2
  Wed, Dec 3 224 @Lamar L 55-65 20%     1 - 8 -10.7 -6.4 -5.7
  Sat, Dec 6 109 UNC Wilmington L 63-70 16%     1 - 9 -6.3 -5.1 -1.9
  Sat, Dec 13 179 @Louisiana Tech L 44-65 14%     1 - 10 -19.3 -17.6 -5.2
  Thu, Dec 18 200 @Southern Miss L 62-72 18%    
  Sat, Dec 20 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 69-67 56%    
  Sun, Dec 28 232 Norfolk St. L 61-64 40%    
  Wed, Dec 31 180 South Alabama L 61-66 31%    
  Sat, Jan 3 200 Southern Miss L 65-69 36%    
  Thu, Jan 8 357 Louisiana Monroe W 72-64 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 143 Troy L 63-71 23%    
  Wed, Jan 14 241 @Texas St. L 59-67 22%    
  Sat, Jan 17 180 @South Alabama L 58-69 15%    
  Thu, Jan 22 233 @Appalachian St. L 57-66 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 215 @Old Dominion L 63-72 20%    
  Thu, Jan 29 335 Georgia St. W 68-64 64%    
  Sat, Jan 31 236 Georgia Southern L 70-73 40%    
  Wed, Feb 4 183 @James Madison L 62-73 16%    
  Thu, Feb 12 245 Coastal Carolina L 65-67 42%    
  Thu, Feb 19 153 Arkansas St. L 68-75 26%    
  Sat, Feb 21 241 Texas St. L 62-64 42%    
  Tue, Feb 24 143 @Troy L 60-74 11%    
  Fri, Feb 27 153 @Arkansas St. L 65-78 12%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.8 0.1 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.5 0.6 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.8 7.0 3.5 0.2 15.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 5.5 8.7 4.6 0.7 0.0 21.2 12th
13th 0.2 1.8 5.5 6.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 18.2 13th
14th 0.4 1.8 3.5 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.3 14th
Total 0.4 2.0 5.5 10.1 14.2 16.4 16.0 13.5 9.5 6.2 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 82.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 25.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 30.4% 30.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
10-8 3.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
9-9 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
8-10 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
7-11 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.5
6-12 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.0
5-13 16.4% 16.4
4-14 14.2% 14.2
3-15 10.1% 10.1
2-16 5.5% 5.5
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%