Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#227
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#220
Pace65.7#258
Improvement+1.0#62

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#246
First Shot-0.2#187
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#320
Layup/Dunks+1.1#120
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#313
Freethrows-1.0#260
Improvement+1.6#9

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#204
First Shot-0.2#179
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#252
Layups/Dunks+0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#238
Freethrows+0.9#112
Improvement-0.6#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.5% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 17.7% 31.9% 7.9%
.500 or above in Conference 42.3% 63.4% 27.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.9%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 32 - 53 - 11
Quad 49 - 412 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 119   @ San Jose St. L 48-63 21%     0 - 1 -9.6 -20.2 +9.5
  Nov 10, 2022 93   @ Santa Clara L 62-78 15%     0 - 2 -7.9 -12.5 +5.8
  Nov 18, 2022 170   @ Rice L 71-88 29%     0 - 3 -14.2 -4.7 -9.1
  Nov 19, 2022 350   @ Houston Christian W 84-77 74%     1 - 3 -2.8 +7.1 -9.6
  Nov 20, 2022 285   Western Michigan W 63-57 64%     2 - 3 -0.6 -8.8 +8.9
  Nov 30, 2022 171   Florida Gulf Coast L 53-70 49%     2 - 4 -19.7 -14.5 -7.5
  Dec 10, 2022 215   Wofford W 79-57 58%     3 - 4 +17.0 +7.0 +11.7
  Dec 14, 2022 278   Morehead St. L 71-74 71%     3 - 5 -11.9 -2.4 -9.7
  Dec 17, 2022 255   Campbell W 54-53 67%     4 - 5 -6.6 -14.4 +8.0
  Dec 21, 2022 155   @ Ball St. L 54-58 27%     4 - 6 -0.7 -14.8 +13.8
  Dec 29, 2022 182   South Alabama W 64-50 51%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +10.8 -5.8 +17.4
  Dec 31, 2022 246   @ Coastal Carolina W 73-64 45%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +7.3 +2.0 +5.9
  Jan 05, 2023 78   Marshall W 81-76 25%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +8.9 +10.6 -1.6
  Jan 07, 2023 176   Old Dominion L 75-81 OT 50%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -8.9 +0.0 -8.8
  Jan 12, 2023 179   @ Appalachian St. W 67-65 30%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +4.5 +0.6 +3.9
  Jan 14, 2023 96   @ James Madison L 71-83 16%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -4.3 +2.0 -6.1
  Jan 19, 2023 265   Louisiana Monroe L 59-72 69%     8 - 9 4 - 3 -21.2 -5.9 -17.8
  Jan 21, 2023 231   Georgia St. W 58-52 63%     9 - 9 5 - 3 -0.4 -11.4 +11.4
  Jan 26, 2023 209   @ Texas St. L 67-70 36%     9 - 10 5 - 4 -2.3 +2.3 -4.8
  Jan 28, 2023 112   @ Louisiana L 87-94 19%     9 - 11 5 - 5 -0.8 +14.9 -15.7
  Feb 02, 2023 231   @ Georgia St. L 64-66 41%    
  Feb 04, 2023 176   @ Old Dominion L 62-68 29%    
  Feb 09, 2023 96   James Madison L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 11, 2023 311   Arkansas St. W 68-60 77%    
  Feb 16, 2023 78   @ Marshall L 68-80 12%    
  Feb 18, 2023 111   @ Southern Miss L 63-72 19%    
  Feb 22, 2023 246   Coastal Carolina W 72-68 66%    
  Feb 24, 2023 179   Appalachian St. L 64-65 51%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 2.2 0.1 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 5.4 1.0 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.4 7.3 4.5 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 4.3 10.3 1.0 0.0 15.6 7th
8th 0.9 11.1 4.5 0.1 16.6 8th
9th 0.1 5.0 9.6 0.6 15.3 9th
10th 1.0 8.5 2.8 0.0 12.3 10th
11th 0.1 3.0 4.9 0.2 8.3 11th
12th 0.5 3.0 0.9 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 1.3 7.7 20.2 28.5 24.5 12.7 4.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 41.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 14.7% 14.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 4.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
10-8 12.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 12.4
9-9 24.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 24.2
8-10 28.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 28.3
7-11 20.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 20.0
6-12 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
5-13 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 14.7% 13.8 2.9 11.8
Lose Out 1.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.3