Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#116
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#141
Pace68.9#191
Improvement+3.3#5

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#175
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#178
Layup/Dunks+3.7#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#179
Freethrows-2.0#291
Improvement+0.9#92

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#85
First Shot+0.6#152
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#24
Layups/Dunks+4.5#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#325
Freethrows+1.7#82
Improvement+2.5#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 18.5% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 92.8% 94.6% 83.6%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 91.9% 84.7%
Conference Champion 21.9% 23.1% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 1.3%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round17.0% 18.2% 10.4%
Second Round2.7% 3.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 412 - 218 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 163   @ Northern Illinois L 78-91 51%     0 - 1 -9.9 -4.4 -4.0
  Nov 14, 2023 156   @ Oregon St. L 71-81 OT 50%     0 - 2 -6.6 -1.4 -4.8
  Nov 21, 2023 136   UNC Wilmington W 86-56 56%     1 - 2 +31.8 +18.3 +15.0
  Nov 22, 2023 189   Murray St. W 67-57 68%     2 - 2 +8.5 -7.1 +15.7
  Nov 26, 2023 262   Austin Peay W 78-58 86%     3 - 2 +11.6 +6.2 +6.6
  Nov 29, 2023 241   East Tennessee St. W 74-63 84%    
  Dec 03, 2023 20   Auburn L 68-75 25%    
  Dec 13, 2023 272   @ Queens W 75-69 72%    
  Dec 16, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 67-63 65%    
  Dec 21, 2023 215   UNC Asheville W 74-68 69%    
  Dec 30, 2023 287   Louisiana Monroe W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 04, 2024 198   @ South Alabama W 69-67 59%    
  Jan 06, 2024 213   @ Troy W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 11, 2024 308   @ Coastal Carolina W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 13, 2024 68   @ James Madison L 75-82 25%    
  Jan 17, 2024 185   Georgia St. W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 20, 2024 308   Coastal Carolina W 79-65 90%    
  Jan 25, 2024 319   Georgia Southern W 79-64 91%    
  Jan 27, 2024 68   James Madison L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 01, 2024 185   @ Georgia St. W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 03, 2024 319   @ Georgia Southern W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 07, 2024 207   @ Texas St. W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 15, 2024 170   Marshall W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 17, 2024 152   Louisiana W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 22, 2024 186   @ Old Dominion W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 24, 2024 170   @ Marshall W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 28, 2024 186   Old Dominion W 70-62 75%    
  Mar 01, 2024 230   Arkansas St. W 75-65 81%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.7 6.6 5.7 2.4 0.6 21.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 7.0 6.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 6.2 5.3 1.4 0.1 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 5.1 4.0 0.8 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.2 0.7 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 3.2 0.8 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.1 0.1 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.4 4.4 7.2 10.0 13.2 13.7 14.9 12.9 9.6 6.3 2.4 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.9% 2.4    2.2 0.2
16-2 91.1% 5.7    4.5 1.2 0.0
15-3 68.4% 6.6    4.1 2.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 36.0% 4.7    1.7 2.1 0.8 0.1
13-5 12.0% 1.8    0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.9% 21.9 13.5 6.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 79.2% 58.8% 20.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 49.6%
17-1 2.4% 47.5% 42.2% 5.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 9.2%
16-2 6.3% 36.0% 35.1% 0.9% 12.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 4.0 1.3%
15-3 9.6% 28.9% 28.9% 12.5 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.8
14-4 12.9% 23.1% 23.1% 13.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.9
13-5 14.9% 17.8% 17.8% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.1 12.3
12-6 13.7% 14.5% 14.5% 13.7 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 11.7
11-7 13.2% 11.2% 11.2% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 11.7
10-8 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.2
9-9 7.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.8
8-10 4.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.7 0.1 0.2 4.2
7-11 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 2.3
6-12 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.2% 16.9% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 4.2 5.6 4.1 1.4 0.5 82.8 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 89.2% 5.8 21.6 24.3 16.2 16.2 5.4 2.7 2.7