Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#179
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#181
Pace64.4#285
Improvement+1.1#56

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#248
First Shot-1.5#235
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#252
Layup/Dunks-1.4#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#239
Freethrows-0.5#210
Improvement+0.5#87

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#111
First Shot+2.3#103
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#196
Layups/Dunks+2.4#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#286
Freethrows+2.4#34
Improvement+0.5#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.4% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 63.5% 82.6% 53.1%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 95.1% 78.1%
Conference Champion 2.1% 4.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round3.2% 4.2% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 35.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 45 - 10
Quad 49 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 254   NC Central W 79-74 OT 76%     1 - 0 -2.5 -5.7 +2.6
  Nov 15, 2022 248   @ Louisville W 61-60 56%     2 - 0 -0.8 -7.0 +6.4
  Nov 18, 2022 255   Campbell L 58-63 76%     2 - 1 -12.6 -13.8 +0.7
  Nov 19, 2022 150   Kennesaw St. L 67-71 56%     2 - 2 -5.9 -1.9 -4.2
  Nov 20, 2022 273   SE Louisiana W 83-74 78%     3 - 2 +0.5 -3.7 +3.5
  Nov 23, 2022 223   @ East Tennessee St. W 74-70 50%     4 - 2 +3.8 +3.7 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2022 87   Furman L 61-65 37%     4 - 3 -1.0 -14.2 +13.3
  Dec 02, 2022 110   @ Charlotte L 62-71 26%     4 - 4 -2.7 +0.7 -4.7
  Dec 14, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest L 66-67 15%     4 - 5 +10.0 +0.4 +9.5
  Dec 21, 2022 101   UC Santa Barbara L 50-61 32%     4 - 6 -6.4 -14.8 +7.3
  Dec 29, 2022 78   @ Marshall L 53-79 18%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -16.6 -14.0 -3.8
  Dec 31, 2022 111   @ Southern Miss L 70-76 27%     4 - 8 0 - 2 +0.2 +3.8 -3.9
  Jan 05, 2023 246   Coastal Carolina W 63-62 74%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -6.1 -11.2 +5.1
  Jan 07, 2023 96   @ James Madison W 71-62 22%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +16.7 +1.9 +14.5
  Jan 12, 2023 227   Georgia Southern L 65-67 70%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -7.8 -7.1 -0.7
  Jan 14, 2023 149   Troy W 58-45 56%     7 - 9 3 - 3 +11.2 -12.6 +24.2
  Jan 19, 2023 246   @ Coastal Carolina L 84-93 OT 55%     7 - 10 3 - 4 -10.7 +4.5 -14.7
  Jan 21, 2023 176   @ Old Dominion W 72-58 39%     8 - 10 4 - 4 +16.5 +15.7 +3.7
  Jan 26, 2023 231   Georgia St. W 71-59 72%     9 - 10 5 - 4 +5.6 +6.1 +0.9
  Jan 28, 2023 311   Arkansas St. W 63-51 84%     10 - 10 6 - 4 +1.2 -7.3 +9.8
  Feb 02, 2023 78   Marshall L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 04, 2023 96   James Madison L 66-68 41%    
  Feb 09, 2023 265   @ Louisiana Monroe W 66-63 58%    
  Feb 11, 2023 182   @ South Alabama L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 16, 2023 209   Texas St. W 63-59 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 176   Old Dominion W 64-61 61%    
  Feb 22, 2023 231   @ Georgia St. W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 24, 2023 227   @ Georgia Southern W 65-64 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.4 2.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.0 2.1 0.2 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.9 5.7 0.9 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 10.5 2.9 0.0 17.2 4th
5th 0.0 2.2 12.6 6.0 0.2 21.1 5th
6th 0.3 7.7 7.6 0.5 16.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 7.6 1.1 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.1 4.3 2.7 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.8 3.7 0.3 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 1.1 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.2 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.3 0.3 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.5 3.9 11.4 20.6 25.3 21.2 12.1 4.3 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 68.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
13-5 29.7% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.6% 10.0% 10.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 4.3% 6.3% 6.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.0
12-6 12.1% 5.3% 5.3% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 11.4
11-7 21.2% 4.5% 4.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 20.3
10-8 25.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 24.5
9-9 20.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 20.1
8-10 11.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.2
7-11 3.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.9
6-12 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.3 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 10.0% 13.2 1.9 4.7 3.4
Lose Out 0.5% 1.5% 16.0 1.5