Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#172
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#214
Pace62.5#329
Improvement+0.4#144

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#208
First Shot+0.7#157
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#287
Layup/Dunks-4.3#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#35
Freethrows-1.9#291
Improvement-1.3#300

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#140
First Shot-0.2#178
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#107
Layups/Dunks-0.3#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#175
Freethrows+1.7#86
Improvement+1.6#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 14.2% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 48.8% 66.3% 42.9%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 79.5% 68.6%
Conference Champion 13.4% 17.4% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.6% 3.6%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round10.4% 14.0% 9.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 49 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 106   @ Iona L 53-65 24%     0 - 1 -4.8 -10.9 +5.3
  Nov 12, 2021 123   East Tennessee St. W 69-67 49%     1 - 1 +1.8 +4.4 -2.3
  Nov 18, 2021 223   Charlotte L 66-67 70%     1 - 2 -6.7 -5.7 -1.0
  Nov 22, 2021 161   Delaware L 68-75 47%     1 - 3 -6.6 -1.2 -6.1
  Nov 23, 2021 165   Akron W 57-45 48%     2 - 3 +12.1 -12.2 +24.8
  Nov 24, 2021 104   Vermont L 63-65 33%     2 - 4 +2.3 +6.5 -4.6
  Nov 29, 2021 265   Hartford W 69-59 79%     3 - 4 +1.3 -6.6 +8.2
  Dec 10, 2021 105   @ Furman L 64-72 25%    
  Dec 16, 2021 5   @ Duke L 58-79 2%    
  Dec 21, 2021 43   @ North Carolina L 66-80 10%    
  Dec 30, 2021 186   Louisiana W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 01, 2022 263   Louisiana Monroe W 72-64 79%    
  Jan 06, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 240   @ Troy W 64-63 52%    
  Jan 13, 2022 227   Coastal Carolina W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 227   @ Coastal Carolina L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 20, 2022 141   @ Georgia St. L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 176   @ Georgia Southern L 62-64 42%    
  Jan 27, 2022 229   Arkansas St. W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 289   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-62 80%    
  Feb 03, 2022 138   @ Texas St. L 60-65 32%    
  Feb 05, 2022 234   @ Texas Arlington W 65-64 51%    
  Feb 10, 2022 176   Georgia Southern W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 12, 2022 141   Georgia St. W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 17, 2022 240   Troy W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 157   South Alabama W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 24, 2022 289   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 25, 2022 229   @ Arkansas St. W 66-65 51%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 3.0 3.9 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 13.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 4.5 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 1.2 4.7 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.5 4.8 4.8 1.5 0.2 11.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 5.1 1.7 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.6 1.7 0.2 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.9 0.4 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 0.5 6.1 9th
10th 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.0 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.3 8.2 9.5 11.6 13.2 12.8 11.7 9.7 6.4 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
16-2 97.1% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-3 81.9% 3.0    2.3 0.6 0.1
14-4 61.5% 3.9    2.5 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 31.3% 3.0    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.4% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 7.9 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 27.9% 27.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 49.5% 49.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 38.4% 38.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.6% 28.5% 28.5% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 2.6
14-4 6.4% 26.0% 26.0% 13.8 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.7
13-5 9.7% 21.1% 21.1% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.0 7.6
12-6 11.7% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 10.0
11-7 12.8% 10.1% 10.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 11.5
10-8 13.2% 6.8% 6.8% 15.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 12.3
9-9 11.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 11.1
8-10 9.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.3
7-11 8.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.0
6-12 5.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.2
5-13 3.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.1
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.9 4.1 1.3 89.4 0.0%