Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #173
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 #173
Pace 60.1 #361
Improvement +6.8 #8

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #246 C- C C+ D C
Defense #122 B- C+ D C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #253 1.18 #146 -1.0 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #230 0.69 #301 -1.7 #270
Three Pointers 46% #73 0.93 #292 +0.7 #151
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #236 -2.1 #236
Freethrows 0.30 #222 63% #365 0.19 #312
Second Chance 29.6% #213 1.01 #199 0.30 #207
Turnovers 16.4% #146
Total Offense -2.7 #246

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #216 1.06 #65 +2.4 #98
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #261 0.76 #199 +1.1 #109
Three Pointers 44% #80 0.96 #102 -0.5 #206
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #88 +3.0 #84
Freethrows 0.29 #141 70% #68 0.20 #110
Second Chance 31.0% #196 0.95 #77 0.29 #128
Turnovers 14.4% #322
Total Defense +1.7 #122

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #167 0.5% #214
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #249 -6.0% #68
Possession Length 19.7 #358 17.4 #222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #311 0.17 #154
Improvement +1.7 #91 +5.1 #7

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 19.9% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.5
.500 or above 97.9% 99.6% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 100.0% 97.7%
Conference Champion 19.6% 26.8% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round17.0% 19.8% 11.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 6
Quad 412 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 293 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 64% -12  0 - 1 -21 -3 F C B -19 F C C
 Sun, Nov 9 341 NC Central W 76 - 54 89% +16  1 - 1 +7 +3 F A+ A+ +7 A B D+
 Tue, Nov 11 36 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 6% -6  1 - 2 -5 -7 D- B B- -1 A+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 16 228 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 49% +5  2 - 2 +7 +9 A C F -2 D C+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 156 Charlotte W 65 - 63 58% -2  3 - 2 -1 +3 B- C+ C -4 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 193 Elon L 53 - 88 66% -17  3 - 3 -40 -18 F F B- -28 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 149 @Mercer L 67 - 75 33% +3  3 - 4 -4 +2 F+ B A -8 B+ F+ D+
 Sun, Nov 30 211 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 46% -8  3 - 5 -12 -13 F D+ C -0 B F B
 Thu, Dec 11 248 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 53% +9  4 - 5 +11 +1 C+ B F +11 A B F+
 Sun, Dec 14 98 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 28% +2  5 - 5 +13 +6 B+ F A+ +6 A- A+ D
 Thu, Dec 18 238 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 73% +4  6 - 5 1 - 0 +11 -3 A- F F +15 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Dec 20 269 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 78% -4  6 - 6 1 - 1 -16 -10 D F A- -6 F A+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 243 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 53% +13  7 - 6 2 - 1 +6 +13 C+ A+ C- -6 F+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 153 @Marshall L 81 - 88 34% -8  7 - 7 2 - 2 -4 +9 B- B+ B- -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 269 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 58% -2  8 - 7 3 - 2 -1 -14 F C- D+ +13 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 238 @Coastal Carolina L 62 - 67 52% +5  8 - 8 3 - 3 -6 +3 F+ B+ A+ -11 F C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 205 James Madison W 80 - 65 68% +11  9 - 8 4 - 3 +9 +18 A+ A+ B -6 A C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 243 Old Dominion L 73 - 75 74% -10  9 - 9 4 - 4 -10 +3 C- B A -13 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 22 302 Louisiana W 72 - 58 83% +1  10 - 9 5 - 4 +3 +9 A+ C- D- -4 A- D- F
 Fri, Jan 23 360 Louisiana Monroe W 59 - 43 93% +8  11 - 9 6 - 4 -2 -22 F F C +20 A+ A C
 Thu, Jan 29 251 @Southern Miss W 70 - 63 54% +2  12 - 9 7 - 4 +5 +2 D+ F A- +3 B B C-
 Sat, Jan 31 141 @Troy W 66 - 44 31% +9  13 - 9 8 - 4 +26 +7 B F D +23 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 196 South Alabama W 65 - 61 66%
 Sat, Feb 7 236 Eastern Michigan W 67 - 61 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 260 @Georgia Southern W 72 - 70 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 205 @James Madison L 66 - 67 45%
 Thu, Feb 19 153 Marshall W 70 - 68 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 260 Georgia Southern W 75 - 67 76%
 Fri, Feb 27 259 @Texas St. W 66 - 64 56%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 6 -1 -3 C- C C+ +2 B- C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.5 10.1 4.7 19.6 1st
2nd 0.1 4.8 18.2 7.9 0.8 31.7 2nd
3rd 0.9 12.2 6.9 0.3 20.4 3rd
4th 4.4 7.4 0.4 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 5.8 1.2 7.1 5th
6th 0.9 2.9 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 2.0 0.4 2.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.3 0.3 0.6 9th
10th 0.3 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.8 5.0 14.5 25.9 30.0 18.3 5.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 86.3% 4.7    3.0 1.7 0.0
13-5 54.9% 10.1    3.2 5.4 1.4 0.0
12-6 15.0% 4.5    0.4 1.6 1.8 0.7 0.1
11-7 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 6.6 8.7 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 5.5% 35.1% 35.1% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 3.6
13-5 18.3% 28.5% 28.5% 14.2 0.7 2.9 1.6 0.1 13.1
12-6 30.0% 21.7% 21.7% 14.5 0.2 2.8 3.3 0.2 23.5
11-7 25.9% 10.5% 10.5% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.2 23.2
10-8 14.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 14.0
9-9 5.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
8-10 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 14.4 83.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 13.4 3.8 56.3 38.6 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 0.2%