Kentucky
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#32
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#42
Pace66.4#231
Improvement-0.2#209

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#23
First Shot+4.4#59
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#14
Layup/Dunks+0.6#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#258
Freethrows+0.5#137
Improvement+0.7#68

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#53
First Shot+4.2#63
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#118
Layups/Dunks+2.3#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#94
Freethrows+1.9#53
Improvement-0.9#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.2% 6.0% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 17.6% 22.7% 8.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.6% 77.0% 58.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.3% 75.2% 55.9%
Average Seed 8.0 7.7 8.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 97.8% 87.3%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.0% 8.0% 10.8%
First Round66.5% 73.4% 53.8%
Second Round38.2% 43.2% 28.9%
Sweet Sixteen14.9% 17.3% 10.4%
Elite Eight6.4% 7.5% 4.4%
Final Four2.4% 2.9% 1.6%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Florida (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 26 - 19 - 10
Quad 35 - 014 - 10
Quad 46 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 269   Howard W 95-63 96%     1 - 0 +23.7 +10.7 +10.5
  Nov 11, 2022 126   Duquesne W 77-52 88%     2 - 0 +24.6 +1.4 +22.8
  Nov 15, 2022 39   Michigan St. L 77-86 2OT 53%     2 - 1 +2.4 -2.4 +6.4
  Nov 17, 2022 355   South Carolina St. W 106-63 99%     3 - 1 +25.9 +12.8 +9.1
  Nov 20, 2022 13   @ Gonzaga L 72-88 30%     3 - 2 +1.6 -1.2 +4.1
  Nov 23, 2022 282   North Florida W 96-56 97%     4 - 2 +30.7 +12.0 +17.6
  Nov 29, 2022 253   Bellarmine W 60-41 96%     5 - 2 +11.5 -5.8 +21.0
  Dec 04, 2022 58   Michigan W 73-69 63%     6 - 2 +13.0 +3.0 +10.0
  Dec 10, 2022 92   Yale W 69-59 82%     7 - 2 +12.6 +8.9 +5.3
  Dec 17, 2022 5   UCLA L 53-63 29%     7 - 3 +8.1 -6.8 +14.4
  Dec 21, 2022 358   Florida A&M W 88-68 99%     8 - 3 +1.7 +26.8 -21.4
  Dec 28, 2022 46   @ Missouri L 75-89 48%     8 - 4 0 - 1 -1.2 +5.2 -6.8
  Dec 31, 2022 248   Louisville W 86-63 95%     9 - 4 +15.8 +18.3 -0.5
  Jan 03, 2023 106   LSU W 74-71 85%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +4.1 +15.9 -11.2
  Jan 07, 2023 2   @ Alabama L 52-78 19%     10 - 5 1 - 2 -4.2 -7.3 +2.1
  Jan 10, 2023 229   South Carolina L 68-71 95%     10 - 6 1 - 3 -9.1 +7.4 -17.1
  Jan 14, 2023 3   @ Tennessee W 63-56 19%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +28.4 +5.5 +23.0
  Jan 17, 2023 103   Georgia W 85-71 84%     12 - 6 3 - 3 +15.5 +12.1 +3.2
  Jan 21, 2023 42   Texas A&M W 76-67 66%     13 - 6 4 - 3 +16.9 +7.0 +10.1
  Jan 24, 2023 97   @ Vanderbilt W 69-53 68%     14 - 6 5 - 3 +23.6 +12.6 +14.4
  Jan 28, 2023 7   Kansas L 68-77 44%     14 - 7 +4.9 +2.9 +1.9
  Jan 31, 2023 95   @ Mississippi W 75-66 67%     15 - 7 6 - 3 +16.7 +15.0 +2.7
  Feb 04, 2023 40   Florida W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 07, 2023 18   Arkansas W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 11, 2023 103   @ Georgia W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 15, 2023 55   @ Mississippi St. W 64-63 49%    
  Feb 18, 2023 3   Tennessee L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 22, 2023 40   @ Florida L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 25, 2023 27   Auburn W 71-69 59%    
  Mar 01, 2023 97   Vanderbilt W 76-66 84%    
  Mar 04, 2023 18   @ Arkansas L 69-73 33%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.2 2.9 0.5 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 10.5 6.1 0.7 20.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 10.0 7.3 0.7 19.3 4th
5th 0.2 6.0 9.0 1.1 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 9.3 2.7 0.1 14.2 6th
7th 0.5 5.5 3.9 0.2 10.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.9 0.5 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.7 12.1 21.0 25.1 20.2 11.1 4.0 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 32.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 8.5% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.7% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 2.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.0% 99.9% 10.6% 89.3% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 11.1% 99.1% 9.0% 90.1% 5.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 3.7 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
12-6 20.2% 95.5% 7.7% 87.8% 7.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 6.5 5.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.9 95.2%
11-7 25.1% 83.2% 6.8% 76.5% 8.8 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.3 6.0 5.2 1.5 0.0 4.2 82.0%
10-8 21.0% 55.3% 6.6% 48.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 4.5 4.2 0.2 0.0 9.4 52.1%
9-9 12.1% 23.5% 5.3% 18.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.3 19.2%
8-10 4.7% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4 1.0%
7-11 1.1% 3.1% 3.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 70.6% 7.0% 63.5% 8.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.2 8.1 11.3 11.9 10.5 10.7 7.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 29.4 68.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 2.5 11.9 38.4 36.3 12.2 1.2
Lose Out 0.1% 1.8% 15.0 1.8