Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.3 #20
Expected Predictive Rating +13.1 #45
Pace 72.5 #90
Improvement +0.4 #161

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #35 A- C B+ A B
Defense #15 A+ C+ B+ C A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #97 1.35 #27 +6.0 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #291 0.77 #154 -1.9 #265
Three Pointers 43% #148 1.06 #132 +2.0 #121
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #42 +6.1 #41
Freethrows 16.1 #255 75% #106 12.0 #206
Second Chance 35.0% #66 1.16 #58 0.41 #44
Turnovers 13.4% #27
Total Offense +8.1 #35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #355 1.08 #90 +7.3 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #17 0.67 #83 -2.2 #320
Three Pointers 43% #126 0.81 #18 +3.4 #64
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #9 +8.6 #9
Freethrows 16.0 #126 74% #265 11.9 #156
Second Chance 25.8% #41 0.95 #79 0.24 #35
Turnovers 16.6% #186
Total Defense +8.2 #15

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #69 -3.9% #10
Shot Type Make % Effect 9.8% #49 -13.5% #15
Possession Length 14.9 #21 18.8 #355
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.33 #3 0.10 #15
Improvement -0.2 #203 +0.6 #146

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.7% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.8% 7.0% 2.2%
Top 4 Seed 22.8% 35.5% 16.7%
Top 6 Seed 48.3% 65.4% 40.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.7% 92.5% 78.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.2% 91.7% 76.4%
Average Seed 6.2 5.4 6.6
.500 or above 93.3% 97.8% 91.1%
.500 or above in Conference 73.5% 87.0% 67.1%
Conference Champion 7.7% 14.7% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four5.9% 3.3% 7.2%
First Round80.3% 91.3% 75.1%
Second Round59.8% 71.7% 54.1%
Sweet Sixteen27.7% 36.8% 23.4%
Elite Eight11.0% 15.1% 9.1%
Final Four4.4% 6.4% 3.5%
Championship Game1.6% 2.5% 1.2%
National Champion0.4% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 11
Quad 25 - 112 - 13
Quad 31 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 214 Nicholls St. W 77-51 97%     14.9   1 - 0 +19.7 +1.4 +18.4
  Fri, Nov 7 206 Valparaiso W 107-59 97%     30.7   2 - 0 +41.9 +26.2 +12.5
  Tue, Nov 11 13 @Louisville L 88-96 32%     -8.3   2 - 1 +13.1 +15.0 -1.3
  Fri, Nov 14 319 Eastern Illinois W 99-53 99%     26.6   3 - 1 +33.3 +26.0 +8.8
  Tue, Nov 18 17 Michigan St. L 66-83 47%     -11.0   3 - 2 +0.1 +3.3 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 21 335 Loyola Maryland W 88-46 99%     26.1   4 - 2 +28.1 +3.5 +23.4
  Wed, Nov 26 310 Tennessee Tech W 104-54 99%     17.7   5 - 2 +38.2 +21.2 +15.1
  Tue, Dec 2 22 North Carolina L 64-67 63%     1.5   5 - 3 +9.9 +4.3 +5.3
  Fri, Dec 5 7 Gonzaga L 59-94 34%     -20.5   5 - 4 -14.5 -6.1 -8.1
  Tue, Dec 9 349 NC Central W 103-67 99%     19.0   6 - 4 +20.3 +21.7 -2.3
  Sat, Dec 13 28 Indiana W 72-60 67%     -0.2   7 - 4 +23.7 +8.7 +15.5
  Sat, Dec 20 18 St. John's W 78-66 47%     2.7   8 - 4 +29.0 +13.7 +15.4
  Tue, Dec 23 272 Bellarmine W 99-85 98%     8.2   9 - 4 +4.8 +21.9 -16.4
  Sat, Jan 3 14 @Alabama L 85-90 32%    
  Wed, Jan 7 63 Missouri W 84-74 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 73 Mississippi St. W 82-71 86%    
  Wed, Jan 14 38 @LSU W 78-77 51%    
  Sat, Jan 17 15 @Tennessee L 71-76 34%    
  Wed, Jan 21 43 Texas W 82-75 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 59 Mississippi W 77-67 83%    
  Tue, Jan 27 9 @Vanderbilt L 76-83 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 24 @Arkansas L 80-82 41%    
  Wed, Feb 4 46 Oklahoma W 82-74 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 15 Tennessee W 74-73 56%    
  Sat, Feb 14 12 @Florida L 75-80 32%    
  Tue, Feb 17 21 Georgia W 86-83 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 30 @Auburn L 78-79 47%    
  Tue, Feb 24 85 @South Carolina W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 9 Vanderbilt L 79-80 46%    
  Tue, Mar 3 44 @Texas A&M W 83-82 54%    
  Sat, Mar 7 12 Florida W 78-77 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 4.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.6 4.4 4.0 0.7 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 5.7 1.2 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.4 2.6 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.4 3.8 4.5 0.5 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 5.2 1.3 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.8 2.5 0.2 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.3 0.1 5.0 11th
12th 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.2 4.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.3 7.9 10.9 13.4 15.4 14.8 12.3 8.9 5.2 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 98.3% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
15-3 84.1% 2.0    1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 53.4% 2.8    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 17.3% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 3.7 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 2.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2.6 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-4 5.2% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 3.3 0.2 0.8 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.9% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 3.9 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 100.0%
12-6 12.3% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.8% 99.9% 7.7% 92.2% 5.7 0.0 0.5 1.9 4.2 4.4 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 99.9%
10-8 15.4% 98.8% 4.6% 94.1% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.9 4.7 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.7%
9-9 13.4% 94.1% 3.0% 91.1% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.1 3.0 2.1 0.7 0.8 93.9%
8-10 10.9% 70.4% 2.4% 68.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.0 0.1 3.2 69.7%
7-11 7.9% 27.9% 1.5% 26.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.7 26.9%
6-12 4.3% 5.2% 0.7% 4.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.5%
5-13 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 82.7% 7.8% 74.8% 6.2 0.8 3.0 7.9 11.1 13.2 12.3 10.9 7.5 5.5 5.0 5.2 0.3 0.0 17.3 81.2%