Kentucky
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#12
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#44
Pace70.3#148
Improvement+0.0#171

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#11
First Shot+5.8#31
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#30
Layup/Dunks-0.3#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#262
Freethrows-0.2#194
Improvement-0.9#273

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#32
First Shot+5.0#44
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#82
Layups/Dunks+3.9#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#70
Freethrows+2.0#73
Improvement+0.9#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 8.9% 8.9% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 20.3% 20.4% 4.9%
Top 4 Seed 44.9% 45.0% 19.1%
Top 6 Seed 65.4% 65.6% 35.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.3% 88.5% 71.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.3% 86.4% 68.4%
Average Seed 4.8 4.8 6.7
.500 or above 97.7% 97.8% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 86.9% 72.2%
Conference Champion 17.2% 17.3% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four2.8% 2.8% 7.1%
First Round87.2% 87.3% 69.1%
Second Round68.1% 68.2% 48.5%
Sweet Sixteen39.7% 39.8% 22.8%
Elite Eight20.3% 20.4% 5.2%
Final Four9.9% 10.0% 2.8%
Championship Game4.5% 4.5% 1.2%
National Champion2.1% 2.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 112 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 48 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 4   Duke L 71-79 39%     0 - 1 +10.5 +3.5 +7.3
  Nov 12, 2021 289   Robert Morris W 100-60 98%     1 - 1 +30.0 +18.2 +10.8
  Nov 16, 2021 297   Mount St. Mary's W 80-55 98%     2 - 1 +14.7 +9.0 +7.0
  Nov 19, 2021 72   Ohio W 77-59 86%     3 - 1 +21.9 +11.0 +12.5
  Nov 22, 2021 294   Albany W 86-61 98%     4 - 1 +14.7 +6.7 +6.9
  Nov 26, 2021 288   North Florida W 86-52 98%     5 - 1 +24.1 -2.9 +23.2
  Nov 29, 2021 300   Central Michigan W 91-65 99%    
  Dec 07, 2021 287   Southern W 86-61 99%    
  Dec 11, 2021 62   @ Notre Dame W 75-70 67%    
  Dec 18, 2021 29   Ohio St. W 75-72 61%    
  Dec 22, 2021 36   Louisville W 74-67 74%    
  Dec 29, 2021 128   Missouri W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 31, 2021 286   High Point W 81-56 99%    
  Jan 04, 2022 10   @ LSU L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 08, 2022 158   Georgia W 83-65 95%    
  Jan 11, 2022 78   @ Vanderbilt W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 15, 2022 24   Tennessee W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 19, 2022 81   @ Texas A&M W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 22, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 75-77 45%    
  Jan 25, 2022 37   Mississippi St. W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 9   @ Kansas L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 02, 2022 78   Vanderbilt W 77-65 85%    
  Feb 05, 2022 13   @ Alabama L 77-80 39%    
  Feb 08, 2022 101   @ South Carolina W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 12, 2022 14   Florida W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 15, 2022 24   @ Tennessee L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 13   Alabama W 80-77 61%    
  Feb 23, 2022 10   LSU W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 25   @ Arkansas L 77-78 47%    
  Mar 01, 2022 76   Mississippi W 73-61 85%    
  Mar 05, 2022 14   @ Florida L 70-73 40%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.7 5.4 3.6 1.5 0.3 17.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.7 4.8 1.5 0.2 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.8 4.8 1.0 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.5 5.6 1.3 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.0 5.6 1.6 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.8 2.3 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.8 0.3 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 6.2 9.3 11.7 14.2 15.1 13.3 10.5 7.0 3.8 1.5 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 94.5% 3.6    3.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 77.4% 5.4    3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 45.0% 4.7    1.6 2.0 1.0 0.1
13-5 11.5% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 9.9 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 51.3% 48.7% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.8% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.0% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 2.0 2.5 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.5% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 2.6 2.0 3.5 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.3% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 3.5 0.7 2.3 4.2 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.1% 99.9% 15.2% 84.6% 4.6 0.2 0.9 2.6 4.0 3.5 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 14.2% 98.9% 9.8% 89.1% 5.8 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.2 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.8%
10-8 11.7% 94.2% 6.5% 87.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 93.8%
9-9 9.3% 81.4% 4.1% 77.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 80.6%
8-10 6.2% 50.9% 2.0% 48.9% 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.0 49.9%
7-11 3.6% 24.0% 1.9% 22.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.8 22.5%
6-12 2.0% 5.9% 1.3% 4.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.6%
5-13 0.9% 3.0% 0.6% 2.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.4%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 88.3% 15.1% 73.3% 4.8 8.9 11.4 12.5 12.1 11.1 9.3 7.2 5.6 3.8 2.6 2.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.7 86.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.8 13.2