Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.2 25
Expected Predictive Rating +17.4 25
Pace 69.2 170
Improvement +0.3 173

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #32 B A- B+ B C+
Defense B+ #24 A- A C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 125 67% 26 +4.8 35
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 215 35% 276 -1.2 247
Three Pointers 41% 191 36% 104 +0.9 145
1st FG Attempt 1.11 60 +4.4 60
Second Chance 36.1% 44 1.19 27 0.43 22
Turnovers 14.2% 34
Freethrows 0.34 73 73% 154 0.25 79
Total Offense +8.7 32

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 326 53% 60 +5.3 35
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 44 35% 71 -1.3 282
Three Pointers 42% 144 29% 28 +2.3 90
1st FG Attempt 0.89 26 +6.3 26
Second Chance 25.9% 35 0.80 5 0.21 7
Turnovers 17.4% 156
Freethrows 0.29 119 73% 232 0.21 135
Total Defense +7.5 24

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 138 -1.1 28
Shot Type Accuracy +3.9 64 -5.2 30
Possession Length 15.5 34 19.0 357
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.32 4 0.11 22
Improvement +0.6 #144 -0.4 #208

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 2.7% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 16.5% 32.7% 12.7%
Top 6 Seed 58.0% 79.2% 52.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.6% 99.8% 98.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 99.8% 98.3%
Average Seed 6.2 5.2 6.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 100.0% 98.7%
Conference Champion 7.5% 24.7% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.1% 1.2%
First Round98.3% 99.8% 97.9%
Second Round70.8% 80.5% 68.5%
Sweet Sixteen27.9% 36.2% 25.9%
Elite Eight9.9% 12.2% 9.4%
Final Four3.4% 4.4% 3.2%
Championship Game1.0% 1.3% 0.9%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 85 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 24 - 112 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 267 Nicholls St. W 77 - 51 98% +15  95% 1 - 0 A- +17 D+ -3 C F B+ A+ +20 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 154 Valparaiso W 107 - 59 95% +31  99% 2 - 0 A+ +45 A+ +25 A+ D- A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Nov 11 11 @Louisville L 88 - 96 28% -8  4% 2 - 1 A- +14 A+ +14 A A+ C- C+ +1 A B F
 Fri, Nov 14 317 Eastern Illinois W 99 - 53 99% +27  99% 3 - 1 A+ +33 A+ +25 A+ A+ C A +10 B A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 10 Michigan St. L 66 - 83 36% -11  12% 3 - 2 C+ +3 C +1 D+ C+ A C+ +2 D A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 318 Loyola Maryland W 88 - 46 99% +26  98% 4 - 2 A+ +29 C+ +3 C- C B+ A+ +25 A+ B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 321 Tennessee Tech W 104 - 54 99% +18  76% 5 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +18 A+ A+ B- A+ +18 A+ A F
 Tue, Dec 2 26 North Carolina L 64 - 67 63% +2  63% 5 - 3 B +10 C- -1 C+ D+ C+ A +11 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 14 Gonzaga L 59 - 94 40% -21  0% 5 - 4 F+ -16 F+ -8 F A A D- -8 F A- C-
 Tue, Dec 9 342 NC Central W 103 - 67 99% +19  99% 6 - 4 A +21 A+ +17 A+ B- A+ B- +3 C+ B C
 Sat, Dec 13 34 Indiana W 72 - 60 67% -0  34% 7 - 4 A+ +24 B- +4 D- A A+ A+ +20 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 17 St. John's W 78 - 66 44% +1  39% 8 - 4 A+ +30 A +12 B A+ D+ A+ +18 A+ B+ B+
 Tue, Dec 23 278 Bellarmine W 99 - 85 98% +8  90% 9 - 4 C+ +4 A+ +17 A+ A C+ F -13 C F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 18 @Alabama L 74 - 89 33% -11  3% 9 - 5 0 - 1 B- +6 C+ +3 C- A D B- +3 C+ B+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 48 Missouri L 68 - 73 78% +0  43% 9 - 6 0 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -3 C+ C- D+ B +6 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 79 Mississippi St. W 92 - 68 87% +4  63% 10 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +28 A+ +22 A+ A+ C+ B+ +7 C+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 49 @LSU W 75 - 74 59% -8  3% 11 - 6 2 - 2 A- +15 B+ +8 C+ B+ B B+ +7 D+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 16 @Tennessee W 80 - 78 32% -7  1% 12 - 6 3 - 2 A+ +23 A+ +24 A A+ A- C -1 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 33 Texas W 85 - 80 67% +3  73% 13 - 6 4 - 2 A- +17 A +12 B- B+ A- B +4 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 61 Mississippi W 72 - 63 83% +3  73% 14 - 6 5 - 2 A- +15 C+ +3 F A+ C A +12 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Jan 27 15 @Vanderbilt L 55 - 80 31% -18  0% 14 - 7 5 - 3 C- -4 F -11 F C+ D+ B+ +7 A A- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 21 @Arkansas W 85 - 77 35% +5  85% 15 - 7 6 - 3 A+ +28 A+ +20 A+ C A+ A- +8 B A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 56 Oklahoma W 94 - 78 81% +8  79% 16 - 7 7 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +26 A+ A+ A+ C -1 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 16 Tennessee W 74 - 71 55% -5  12% 17 - 7 8 - 3 A +18 B+ +9 A- A+ A A- +9 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 4 @Florida L 72 - 81 19%
 Tue, Feb 17 31 Georgia W 85 - 81 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 27 @Auburn L 78 - 80 42%
 Tue, Feb 24 92 @South Carolina W 77 - 69 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 15 Vanderbilt W 80 - 79 53%
 Tue, Mar 3 29 @Texas A&M L 79 - 81 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 4 Florida L 75 - 78 37%
Totals 20 - 11 11 - 7 +16 A- +9 B A- B+ B+ +7 A- A C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ D+ B- B 41% 19% 41% C+ B B B+ A- B+ B C+ B B+ B B- B+ B+ 32% 26% 42% B+ A- B+ A A C C+ C- C+
1.21 67% 35% 36% +4 0 1.11 36% 1.2 .43 14% .34 73% .25 0.98 53% 35% 29% -5 -1 0.89 26% 0.8 .21 17% .29 73% .25
Nov
4		 Nicholls St. D+ A+ F F C- 45% 12% 43% B C C+ F F B+ B- F F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- F D+ F
1.10 83% 17% 27% +4 +2 1.14 38% 0.5 .20 19% .39 55% .21 0.73 70% 20% 17% -16 -3 0.65 12% 0.8 .10 16% .37 68% .25
Nov
7		 Valparaiso A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 10% 43% A A+ C+ F D- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 24% 59% C+ A+ A A+ A+ D B A- B+
1.43 81% 33% 44% +17 +2 1.40 33% 0.5 .18 8% .38 85% .32 0.79 60% 14% 24% -14 -2 0.69 24% 0.7 .16 13% .31 65% .20
Nov
11		 Louisville A+ A B+ C+ A 32% 18% 51% B+ A A- A+ A+ C- C- B+ C C+ C+ F B+ A 30% 13% 57% A- A B+ B- B F F A+ D-
1.15 67% 40% 34% +4 0 1.09 33% 1.2 .40 18% .26 75% .19 1.25 61% 63% 31% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.9 .29 8% .44 68% .30
Nov
14		 Eastern Illinois A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C D D+ D A C- A+ D+ C+ 18% 47% 35% A+ B A+ A+ A+ D D- A- D+
1.46 80% 60% 40% +17 +2 1.40 57% 1.4 .79 19% .29 75% .22 0.78 56% 22% 35% -7 -5 0.78 13% 0.6 .08 16% .33 68% .23
Nov
18		 Michigan St. C B- F F D 30% 15% 55% B D+ D+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F F D 39% 25% 37% C D A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D- A+
0.93 56% 25% 24% -10 0 0.81 16% 1.0 .16 13% .35 86% .31 1.17 45% 50% 52% +8 0 1.18 31% 0.8 .25 18% .17 80% .14
Nov
21		 Loyola Maryland C+ D+ D A C- 44% 17% 39% B- C- A F C B+ F F F A+ A+ A A+ A+ 25% 21% 54% A A+ A C B+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.22 57% 36% 40% +3 +1 1.09 43% 0.9 .40 12% .14 44% .06 0.64 43% 25% 20% -18 -1 0.64 19% 1.0 .19 22% .14 38% .05
Nov
26		 Tennessee Tech A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 47% A- A+ B- A+ A+ B- F A+ D- A+ A- B A+ A+ 28% 31% 41% A A+ A+ C A F A+ A+ A+
1.43 69% 40% 50% +17 +2 1.39 36% 1.6 .57 14% .21 85% .18 0.74 47% 32% 20% -14 -2 0.70 19% 1.0 .19 15% .08 40% .03
Dec
2		 North Carolina C- A+ D F C 45% 28% 28% B C+ C+ F D+ C+ A+ A- A+ A A D+ A+ A+ 31% 36% 33% A+ A+ F B- F A+ A- A A
1.00 76% 31% 8% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.6 .17 14% .40 77% .31 1.05 50% 44% 20% -7 -2 0.82 48% 1.1 .52 19% .29 60% .17
Dec
5		 Gonzaga F+ F F F F 25% 18% 57% B F B- A+ A A A+ A A+ D- D C F F 41% 30% 29% C+ F B- A A- C- B F C
0.84 38% 0% 21% -23 -1 0.55 27% 1.3 .33 16% .44 77% .34 1.33 70% 41% 56% +15 -1 1.30 34% 1.0 .34 13% .26 81% .21
Dec
9		 NC Central A+ A+ A B+ A+ 40% 11% 49% B A+ F A+ B- A+ F A+ D+ B- D B+ B C 35% 33% 33% A C+ A D B C B- C- B-
1.43 87% 50% 39% +17 +1 1.39 27% 1.6 .42 13% .22 93% .21 0.93 61% 29% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.0 .19 18% .29 76% .22
Dec
13		 Indiana B- D F F F 47% 24% 29% B+ D- B+ A A A+ A+ F A+ A+ D+ B- A+ A+ 23% 18% 59% A+ A+ B- A+ A A+ F F F
1.08 48% 25% 21% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.3 .42 6% .60 66% .40 0.90 67% 43% 17% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .21 27% .59 90% .53
Dec
20		 St. John's A F+ A+ C B 45% 30% 26% D+ B A+ B- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 31% 29% 40% A+ A+ A- C B+ B+ F F F
1.13 43% 57% 33% -1 -1 0.98 48% 1.0 .48 23% .41 82% .34 0.95 46% 17% 24% -16 -2 0.67 32% 1.2 .38 17% .56 84% .47
Dec
23		 Bellarmine A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 15% 25% 60% F A+ B A A C+ A+ C- A F F B C+ C- 39% 20% 41% A- C F F+ F B- F F F
1.48 86% 42% 55% +24 -2 1.46 39% 1.4 .54 15% .42 71% .30 1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.2 .41 18% .55 87% .47
Jan
3		 Alabama C+ A+ F F C- 38% 26% 36% C+ C- B- A+ A D A+ B- A+ B- B F D C+ 38% 5% 57% D+ C+ C- A B+ B- A- C+ A-
1.03 70% 21% 21% -7 -1 0.87 31% 1.3 .38 17% .49 69% .34 1.24 57% 67% 38% +4 +2 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 14% .26 75% .19
Jan
7		 Missouri D+ B D+ C+ C+ 37% 33% 30% C- C+ D B C- D+ A+ D+ A+ B D+ F C- D+ 46% 20% 34% C+ C- A+ A- A+ C- B D- B-
1.00 59% 33% 36% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.0 .24 19% .44 71% .31 1.07 65% 50% 35% +6 +1 1.16 15% 1.0 .15 18% .32 72% .23
Jan
10		 Mississippi St. A+ A D A+ A+ 43% 21% 36% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ F D B+ F C- A+ C+ 40% 24% 36% C C+ B C B- A+ B- F C
1.34 67% 33% 40% +6 0 1.14 42% 1.6 .67 13% .23 64% .15 0.99 80% 42% 17% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.0 .29 22% .26 79% .21
Jan
14		 LSU B+ D F+ A C+ 35% 22% 43% C C+ F+ A+ B+ B A B- A B+ A+ F F D 38% 20% 43% B- D+ A+ B A+ B+ F A+ F
1.12 50% 27% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.6 .34 13% .38 68% .26 1.11 33% 63% 53% +8 0 1.18 24% 1.1 .28 18% .51 68% .35
Jan
17		 Tennessee A+ F+ F A+ A- 39% 11% 50% B+ A A+ A+ A+ A- A D B+ C C F F F 46% 13% 41% D- F D- A+ A+ C+ F C+ F
1.26 44% 20% 43% 0 +1 1.04 41% 1.4 .56 14% .39 62% .24 1.23 61% 60% 50% +14 +2 1.33 52% 0.4 .19 19% .56 69% .39
Jan
21		 Texas A B A+ D B+ 27% 40% 33% F B- A+ D+ B+ A- A+ A+ A+ B F+ C A+ A+ 41% 31% 28% A A+ B- C B- D- A- F C+
1.23 62% 47% 31% +3 -3 1.02 38% 0.8 .32 12% .57 86% .49 1.16 73% 41% 7% -4 -1 0.91 36% 1.2 .44 12% .33 90% .29
Jan
24		 Mississippi C+ D+ D+ F F 20% 30% 50% F+ F B A+ A+ C A+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ 29% 37% 35% C A+ D A+ B- B- D- A C-
1.07 50% 33% 20% -13 -3 0.70 35% 1.4 .48 18% .69 74% .51 0.94 40% 21% 33% -12 -3 0.73 35% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Vanderbilt F C- F F F 31% 33% 37% D F B C- C+ D+ C F F+ B+ A+ D+ D A+ 38% 14% 48% D+ A D+ A+ A- C- F C- F
0.79 53% 19% 22% -14 -2 0.69 30% 0.9 .28 21% .35 58% .20 1.14 42% 43% 38% -3 +1 0.98 35% 0.8 .30 13% .41 80% .33
Jan
31		 Arkansas A+ A+ C A+ A+ 43% 30% 28% D+ A+ A F C A+ A+ D- A+ A- C- F A+ B 51% 25% 24% C B A A+ A+ F F A+ C-
1.27 75% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 37% 1.0 .37 10% .50 63% .32 1.15 65% 54% 25% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.8 .21 6% .41 62% .25
Feb
4		 Oklahoma A+ B C- A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C D- A+ C C+ 28% 13% 59% C+ C+ A+ B+ A+ F C- F F+
1.44 62% 36% 52% +12 -2 1.23 42% 1.4 .58 9% .45 81% .37 1.19 67% 29% 34% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 9% .32 89% .29
Feb
7		 Tennessee B+ A+ D F A- 48% 20% 32% B A- C- A+ A+ A A F+ B A- D B- D+ C+ 19% 40% 40% A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ C+ F C+ D-
1.09 75% 30% 19% -1 +1 1.02 23% 1.8 .40 13% .38 59% .22 1.05 67% 37% 37% +3 -4 1.00 45% 0.6 .29 19% .46 68% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.1 3.6 0.6 7.5 1st
2nd 0.1 4.3 7.8 1.0 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 1.5 11.2 3.8 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.1 7.3 8.4 0.4 16.1 4th
5th 1.1 11.3 1.9 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 5.0 6.5 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.7 7.1 1.2 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 4.0 0.1 6.0 8th
9th 0.2 2.7 0.7 3.6 9th
10th 0.5 1.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.3 0.2 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 1.1 6.6 18.0 27.9 26.1 15.1 4.6 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 98.4% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-4 77.7% 3.6    1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 20.6% 3.1    0.2 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1
12-6 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 2.2 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.6% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 3.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.1% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 4.7 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 5.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 26.1% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 5.5 0.0 1.0 3.7 8.2 8.6 4.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 27.9% 99.7% 4.8% 94.9% 6.5 0.2 1.0 4.2 8.3 9.7 3.9 0.6 0.0 0.1 99.7%
10-8 18.0% 98.5% 2.5% 96.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.7 6.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.3 98.5%
9-9 6.6% 91.5% 1.9% 89.6% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.6 91.3%
8-10 1.1% 58.8% 1.9% 56.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 58.0%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.6% 6.9% 91.8% 6.2 1.4 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 32.0 64.0 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.9 32.4 43.2 24.3
Lose Out 0.4% 34.9% 11.0 1.2 33.7