Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.3 24
Expected Predictive Rating +17.3 27
Pace 69.7 143
Improvement +0.6 159

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 29 B A- B B C+
Defense B+ 28 B+ A C+ C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 119 B+ 66% 35 +4.5 39
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 247 C- 36% 232 -1.1 244
Three Pointers 41% 188 B- 36% 91 +1.2 136
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 132 B +4.1 58
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 57
Second Chance B+ 36.3% 36 B+ 1.18 32 A- 0.43 23
Turnovers B 14.5% 43
Freethrows B 0.34 63 C+ 73% 161 B 0.25 69
Total Offense A- +8.9 29

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 328 B 52% 52 -5.4 34
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 46 B- 35% 79 +1.3 287
Three Pointers 42% 145 B+ 30% 44 -1.8 101
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 33 B+ -4.9 32
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.90 33
Second Chance B+ 26.0% 41 A+ 0.79 5 A 0.21 6
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 148
Freethrows C+ 0.29 143 C- 73% 217 C+ 0.21 147
Total Defense B+ +7.4 28

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.4 32 18.9 353
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.31 4 0.10 20
Improvement +1.2 #124 -0.6 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 4 Seed 11% 13% 5%
Top 6 Seed 55% 62% 39%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98% 99% 95%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98% 99% 95%
Average Seed 6.3 6.1 6.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 99% 100% 97%
Conference Champion 2% 2% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 2%
First Round98% 99% 94%
Second Round69% 73% 62%
Sweet Sixteen26% 29% 20%
Elite Eight9% 10% 7%
Final Four3% 3% 2%
Championship Game1% 1% 1%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgia (Home) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 24 - 112 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 259 Nicholls St. W 77 - 51 98% +15  95% 1 - 0 A- +17 D+ -3 C F B+ A+ +21 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 170 Valparaiso W 107 - 59 96% +31  99% 2 - 0 A+ +44 A+ +24 A+ F+ A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Nov 11 10 @Louisville L 88 - 96 27% -8  4% 2 - 1 A- +15 A+ +14 A+ A+ C- C+ +1 A B+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 320 Eastern Illinois W 99 - 53 99% +27  99% 3 - 1 A+ +33 A+ +25 A+ A+ C A +10 B A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 15 Michigan St. L 66 - 83 40% -11  12% 3 - 2 C+ +2 C +0 D+ C+ A C+ +2 D A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 307 Loyola Maryland W 88 - 46 99% +26  98% 4 - 2 A+ +30 B- +4 C C+ B A+ +25 A+ B+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 318 Tennessee Tech W 104 - 54 99% +18  76% 5 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +17 A+ A+ C+ A+ +18 A+ A F+
 Tue, Dec 2 25 North Carolina L 64 - 67 64% +2  63% 5 - 3 B +10 C- -1 C+ D+ C+ A +10 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 11 Gonzaga L 59 - 94 39% -21  0% 5 - 4 F+ -16 D- -8 F A A D- -8 F A- C-
 Tue, Dec 9 344 NC Central W 103 - 67 99% +19  99% 6 - 4 A +21 A+ +17 A+ B- A+ C+ +2 C B C
 Sat, Dec 13 34 Indiana W 72 - 60 68% -0  34% 7 - 4 A+ +23 B- +4 D- A A+ A+ +20 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 20 St. John's W 78 - 66 44% +1  39% 8 - 4 A+ +30 A +13 B A+ D+ A+ +17 A+ B+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 292 Bellarmine W 99 - 85 98% +8  90% 9 - 4 C+ +4 A+ +16 A+ A C F -12 C F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 18 @Alabama L 74 - 89 32% -11  3% 9 - 5 0 - 1 B- +6 C+ +3 C- A D B- +3 C+ B+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 54 Missouri L 68 - 73 80% +0  43% 9 - 6 0 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -4 C C D+ B +6 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 75 Mississippi St. W 92 - 68 86% +4  63% 10 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +29 A+ +22 A+ A+ C+ B+ +7 B- B- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 56 @LSU W 75 - 74 63% -8  3% 11 - 6 2 - 2 B+ +14 B+ +8 C+ B B B+ +6 D A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 19 @Tennessee W 80 - 78 32% -7  1% 12 - 6 3 - 2 A+ +23 A+ +24 A A+ A- C -1 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 27 Texas W 85 - 80 64% +3  73% 13 - 6 4 - 2 A- +17 A +13 B B+ A- B +5 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 73 Mississippi W 72 - 63 86% +3  73% 14 - 6 5 - 2 B+ +14 C+ +2 F A+ C A +12 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Jan 27 12 @Vanderbilt L 55 - 80 29% -18  0% 14 - 7 5 - 3 C- -3 F -11 F C+ D+ B+ +8 A A C
 Sat, Jan 31 17 @Arkansas W 85 - 77 31% +5  85% 15 - 7 6 - 3 A+ +29 A+ +21 A+ C+ A+ A- +8 B A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 51 Oklahoma W 94 - 78 79% +8  79% 16 - 7 7 - 3 A+ +24 A+ +25 A+ A+ A+ C -0 B- A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 19 Tennessee W 74 - 71 55% -5  12% 17 - 7 8 - 3 A +18 B+ +9 A- A+ A A- +9 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 4 @Florida L 83 - 92 17% -9  0% 17 - 8 8 - 4 A- +17 A +14 A A- D+ B- +4 C A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 17 39 Georgia W 87 - 81 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 30 @Auburn L 78 - 80 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 94 @South Carolina W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 12 Vanderbilt W 80 - 79 50%
 Tue, Mar 3 33 @Texas A&M L 80 - 81 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 4 Florida L 76 - 80 35%
Totals 20 - 11 11 - 7 +16 A- +9 B+ B C+ B+ +7 B- C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ C- B- B 41% 31% 41% C+ B B+ B+ A- B B C+ B B+ B B- B+ B+ 32% 26% 42% B+ B+ B+ A+ A C+ C+ C- C+
1.21 66% 36% 36% +4 0 1.11 36% 1.2 .43 15% .34 73% .25 0.98 52% 35% 30% -5 -1 0.90 26% 0.8 .21 17% .29 73% .25
Nov
4		 Nicholls St. D+ A+ F F C- 45% 12% 43% B C C+ F F B+ B F F+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% A+ A+ A+ A A+ C F D F
1.10 83% 17% 27% +4 +2 1.14 38% 0.5 .20 19% .39 55% .21 0.73 70% 20% 17% -16 -3 0.65 12% 0.8 .10 16% .37 68% .25
Nov
7		 Valparaiso A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 10% 43% A A+ C+ F F+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 24% 59% C+ A+ A A+ A+ D B B+ B+
1.43 81% 33% 44% +17 +2 1.40 33% 0.5 .18 8% .38 85% .32 0.79 60% 14% 24% -15 -2 0.69 24% 0.7 .16 13% .31 65% .20
Nov
11		 Louisville A+ A B+ B- A+ 32% 18% 51% B+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- D+ B C- C+ C+ F B+ A- 30% 13% 57% A A B B B+ F F A+ D-
1.15 67% 40% 34% +3 0 1.09 33% 1.2 .40 18% .26 75% .19 1.25 61% 63% 31% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.9 .29 8% .44 68% .30
Nov
14		 Eastern Illinois A+ A+ A+ A A+ 50% 10% 40% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C D D+ D A C- A+ D+ C 18% 47% 35% A+ B A+ A+ A+ D D- A- D+
1.46 80% 60% 40% +17 +2 1.40 57% 1.4 .79 19% .29 75% .22 0.78 56% 22% 35% -7 -5 0.78 13% 0.6 .08 16% .33 68% .23
Nov
18		 Michigan St. C C+ F F D 30% 15% 55% B D+ D+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F F D 39% 25% 37% C- D A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D- A+
0.93 56% 25% 24% -11 0 0.81 16% 1.0 .16 13% .35 86% .31 1.17 45% 50% 52% +8 0 1.18 31% 0.8 .25 18% .17 80% .14
Nov
21		 Loyola Maryland B- D+ D A C- 44% 17% 39% B- C A F C+ B F F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 21% 54% A A+ A C B+ A A+ A+ A+
1.22 57% 36% 40% +3 +1 1.09 43% 0.9 .40 12% .14 44% .06 0.64 43% 25% 20% -18 -1 0.64 19% 1.0 .19 22% .14 38% .05
Nov
26		 Tennessee Tech A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 47% A A+ B- A+ A+ C+ F A+ F+ A+ A- B A+ A+ 28% 31% 41% A A+ A+ C+ A F+ A+ A+ A+
1.43 69% 40% 50% +17 +2 1.39 36% 1.6 .57 14% .21 85% .18 0.74 47% 32% 20% -14 -2 0.70 19% 1.0 .19 15% .08 40% .03
Dec
2		 North Carolina C- A+ D F C 45% 28% 28% B C+ B- F D+ C+ A+ A- A+ A A D+ A+ A+ 31% 36% 33% A+ A+ F C+ F A+ B+ A+ A
1.00 76% 31% 8% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.6 .17 14% .40 77% .31 1.05 50% 44% 20% -7 -2 0.82 48% 1.1 .52 19% .29 60% .17
Dec
5		 Gonzaga D- F F F F 25% 18% 57% B F B- A+ A A A+ A A+ D- D C F F 41% 30% 29% C+ F B- A A- C- B F C
0.84 38% 0% 21% -23 -1 0.55 27% 1.3 .33 16% .44 77% .34 1.33 70% 41% 56% +15 -1 1.30 34% 1.0 .34 13% .26 81% .21
Dec
9		 NC Central A+ A+ A B+ A+ 40% 11% 49% B A+ F A+ B- A+ F A+ D+ C+ D B+ B C- 35% 33% 33% A C A+ D B C C+ C- C+
1.43 87% 50% 39% +17 +1 1.39 27% 1.6 .42 13% .22 93% .21 0.93 61% 29% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.0 .19 18% .29 76% .22
Dec
13		 Indiana B- D F F F 47% 24% 29% B+ D- B+ A A A+ A+ F A+ A+ D B A+ A+ 23% 18% 59% A+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ F F F
1.08 48% 25% 21% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.3 .42 6% .60 66% .40 0.90 67% 43% 17% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .21 27% .59 90% .53
Dec
20		 St. John's A F+ A+ C B+ 45% 30% 26% D+ B A+ B- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 31% 29% 40% A+ A+ A- C B+ A- F F F
1.13 43% 57% 33% -1 -1 0.98 48% 1.0 .48 23% .41 82% .34 0.95 46% 17% 24% -16 -2 0.67 32% 1.2 .38 17% .56 84% .47
Dec
23		 Bellarmine A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 15% 25% 60% F A+ B- A A C A+ C- A F F B C+ C- 39% 20% 41% A- C F D F B- F F F
1.48 86% 42% 55% +24 -2 1.46 39% 1.4 .54 15% .42 71% .30 1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.2 .41 18% .55 87% .47
Jan
3		 Alabama C+ A+ F F C- 38% 26% 36% C+ C- B A+ A D A+ B- A+ B- B- F D C+ 38% 5% 57% D+ C+ D+ A+ B+ B- A C+ A-
1.03 70% 21% 21% -7 -1 0.87 31% 1.3 .38 17% .49 69% .34 1.24 57% 67% 38% +4 +2 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 14% .26 75% .19
Jan
7		 Missouri D+ B- D+ C+ C+ 37% 33% 30% C- C D B C D+ A+ D A+ B D+ F C- D+ 46% 20% 34% C+ D+ A+ A A+ C B+ D- B-
1.00 59% 33% 36% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.0 .24 19% .44 71% .31 1.07 65% 50% 35% +6 +1 1.16 15% 1.0 .15 18% .32 72% .23
Jan
10		 Mississippi St. A+ A D A+ A+ 43% 21% 36% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ F D B+ F C- A+ B- 40% 24% 36% C- B- B- C B- A+ B- F C-
1.34 67% 33% 40% +6 0 1.14 42% 1.6 .67 13% .23 64% .15 0.99 80% 42% 17% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.0 .29 22% .26 79% .21
Jan
14		 LSU B+ D F A C+ 35% 22% 43% C C+ F+ A+ B B A C+ A- B+ A+ F F D- 38% 20% 43% B- D A+ B- A+ B+ F A F
1.12 50% 27% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.6 .34 13% .38 68% .26 1.11 33% 63% 53% +8 0 1.18 24% 1.1 .28 18% .51 68% .35
Jan
17		 Tennessee A+ F+ F A+ A- 39% 11% 50% A- A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ D A- C C F F F 46% 13% 41% D- F D- A+ A+ C+ F C+ F
1.26 44% 20% 43% 0 +1 1.04 41% 1.4 .56 14% .39 62% .24 1.23 61% 60% 50% +14 +2 1.33 52% 0.4 .19 19% .56 69% .39
Jan
21		 Texas A B A+ D A- 27% 40% 33% F B A+ D B+ A- A+ A+ A+ B F+ C A+ A+ 41% 31% 28% A- A+ B- C B- D- A- F C+
1.23 62% 47% 31% +3 -3 1.02 38% 0.8 .32 12% .57 86% .49 1.16 73% 41% 7% -4 -1 0.91 36% 1.2 .44 12% .33 90% .29
Jan
24		 Mississippi C+ D+ D F F 20% 30% 50% F+ F B+ A+ A+ C A+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ 29% 37% 35% C+ A+ D- A+ B- B- F+ A D+
1.07 50% 33% 20% -13 -3 0.70 35% 1.4 .48 18% .69 74% .51 0.94 40% 21% 33% -12 -3 0.73 35% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Vanderbilt F C- F F F 31% 33% 37% D F B- C- C+ D+ C+ F D- B+ A+ D D A+ 38% 14% 48% D+ A D+ A+ A C F C- F
0.79 53% 19% 22% -14 -2 0.69 30% 0.9 .28 21% .35 58% .20 1.14 42% 43% 38% -3 +1 0.98 35% 0.8 .30 13% .41 80% .33
Jan
31		 Arkansas A+ A+ C A+ A+ 43% 30% 28% D+ A+ A- F C+ A+ A+ D A+ A- C- F A+ B 51% 25% 24% C+ B A A+ A+ F F A+ C-
1.27 75% 36% 46% +12 -1 1.23 37% 1.0 .37 10% .50 63% .32 1.15 65% 54% 25% +5 0 1.12 26% 0.8 .21 6% .41 62% .25
Feb
4		 Oklahoma A+ B C- A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C D- A+ C B- 28% 13% 59% C+ B- A+ B+ A+ F+ C F F+
1.44 62% 36% 52% +12 -2 1.23 42% 1.4 .58 9% .45 81% .37 1.19 67% 29% 34% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 9% .32 89% .29
Feb
7		 Tennessee B+ A+ D F B+ 48% 20% 32% B A- C- A+ A+ A A F+ B A- D C+ D+ C+ 19% 40% 40% A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ C+ F B- D-
1.09 75% 30% 19% -1 +1 1.02 23% 1.8 .40 13% .38 59% .22 1.05 67% 37% 37% +3 -4 1.00 45% 0.6 .29 19% .46 68% .31
Feb
14		 Florida A F+ A+ A+ A 45% 24% 31% B+ A A B A- D+ A+ B- A+ B- B+ C- F C- 44% 13% 44% B- C B- A+ A+ C- F B F
1.08 42% 50% 44% +1 0 1.03 32% 0.8 .24 18% .40 72% .29 1.20 54% 43% 42% +4 +1 1.13 41% 0.8 .32 14% .49 69% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.8 1st
2nd 1.2 5.6 1.2 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 8.5 5.8 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 4.7 12.3 0.8 17.9 4th
5th 1.2 13.6 4.3 0.0 19.1 5th
6th 0.1 6.5 9.3 0.1 16.0 6th
7th 1.3 9.0 1.9 12.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 3.2 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 0.2 2.7 9th
10th 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 1.0 7.2 20.1 30.0 26.4 12.7 2.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 48.0% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1
13-5 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.6% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 3.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.7% 100.0% 9.1% 90.8% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.3 4.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 26.4% 99.9% 7.7% 92.2% 5.6 0.0 0.6 2.7 7.8 10.1 4.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 30.0% 99.4% 3.5% 96.0% 6.5 0.0 0.6 4.3 9.6 10.9 3.8 0.5 0.0 0.2 99.4%
10-8 20.1% 97.7% 2.4% 95.3% 7.4 0.1 0.9 3.0 7.1 5.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.5 97.6%
9-9 7.2% 89.6% 1.5% 88.2% 8.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.7 89.5%
8-10 1.0% 47.9% 1.0% 46.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 47.4%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.1% 5.1% 93.0% 6.3 1.9 98.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 2.4 11.5 50.8 29.5 6.6 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 3.4 2.0 10.2 41.8 40.8 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 4.0 3.8 23.9 46.7 21.7 3.8
Lose Out 0.4% 14.9% 11.1 13.5 1.4