Preseason Rankings
Kentucky
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.2#7
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.1#33
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.4#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.9% 4.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 16.4% 16.5% 3.1%
Top 2 Seed 32.0% 32.1% 8.0%
Top 4 Seed 56.7% 56.9% 27.2%
Top 6 Seed 73.2% 73.5% 40.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.9% 90.0% 64.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.9% 88.1% 61.0%
Average Seed 4.0 4.0 5.6
.500 or above 95.2% 95.4% 75.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 84.6% 62.3%
Conference Champion 19.9% 20.0% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.8% 5.5%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 4.3%
First Round88.8% 88.9% 62.3%
Second Round76.8% 77.0% 45.6%
Sweet Sixteen49.5% 49.7% 19.2%
Elite Eight27.2% 27.3% 7.4%
Final Four14.4% 14.5% 1.9%
Championship Game7.5% 7.6% 0.6%
National Champion3.7% 3.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 210 - 8
Quad 26 - 115 - 9
Quad 32 - 017 - 10
Quad 47 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 233   Nicholls St. W 89-63 99%    
  Nov 07, 2025 261   Valparaiso W 91-63 99%    
  Nov 11, 2025 11   @ Louisville L 79-81 44%    
  Nov 14, 2025 322   Eastern Illinois W 88-56 99.8%   
  Nov 18, 2025 21   Michigan St. W 77-74 61%    
  Nov 21, 2025 317   Loyola Maryland W 90-59 99.7%   
  Nov 26, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 93-61 99.8%   
  Dec 02, 2025 25   North Carolina W 85-78 74%    
  Dec 05, 2025 19   Gonzaga W 84-81 59%    
  Dec 09, 2025 329   NC Central W 92-60 99.8%   
  Dec 13, 2025 34   Indiana W 82-73 77%    
  Dec 20, 2025 8   St. John's W 79-78 53%    
  Dec 23, 2025 320   Bellarmine W 93-61 99.6%   
  Jan 03, 2026 18   @ Alabama L 87-88 49%    
  Jan 07, 2026 37   Missouri W 84-75 78%    
  Jan 10, 2026 33   Mississippi St. W 82-74 76%    
  Jan 14, 2026 52   @ LSU W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 17, 2026 16   @ Tennessee L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 21, 2026 36   Texas W 81-72 77%    
  Jan 24, 2026 30   Mississippi W 81-73 75%    
  Jan 27, 2026 41   @ Vanderbilt W 82-78 62%    
  Jan 31, 2026 17   @ Arkansas L 78-79 48%    
  Feb 04, 2026 47   Oklahoma W 84-73 81%    
  Feb 07, 2026 16   Tennessee W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 14, 2026 5   @ Florida L 78-83 35%    
  Feb 17, 2026 51   Georgia W 81-69 84%    
  Feb 21, 2026 22   @ Auburn W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 24, 2026 70   @ South Carolina W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 28, 2026 41   Vanderbilt W 85-75 79%    
  Mar 03, 2026 35   @ Texas A&M W 77-74 59%    
  Mar 07, 2026 5   Florida W 81-80 54%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.6 5.9 5.3 3.0 0.8 19.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.4 4.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.4 1.9 0.2 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 2.9 0.6 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.5 0.1 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.0 6.0 8.5 10.0 11.8 12.5 12.2 10.8 8.8 5.9 3.0 0.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.3% 3.0    2.8 0.2
16-2 89.7% 5.3    4.2 1.0 0.0
15-3 67.3% 5.9    3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 33.1% 3.6    1.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.5% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 12.7 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 100.0% 63.8% 36.2% 1.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.0% 100.0% 48.5% 51.5% 1.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.9% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.4 3.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.8% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.7 4.4 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.8% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.2 3.0 4.0 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.2% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 2.9 1.5 3.4 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.5% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 3.9 0.5 1.6 3.3 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.8% 99.7% 8.3% 91.4% 4.8 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.7 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 10.0% 97.7% 5.1% 92.6% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 97.6%
9-9 8.5% 91.7% 2.7% 89.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.7 91.5%
8-10 6.0% 72.5% 1.7% 70.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 72.1%
7-11 4.0% 39.5% 1.0% 38.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 2.4 38.8%
6-12 2.6% 17.5% 0.5% 17.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 17.1%
5-13 1.6% 3.6% 3.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.6%
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 89.9% 16.0% 73.8% 4.0 16.4 15.6 13.5 11.1 9.2 7.4 5.6 4.0 2.8 2.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.1 87.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 89.1 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 63.9 36.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.7 12.3