Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.6 #23
Expected Predictive Rating +12.2 #48
Pace 71.6 #116
Improvement -1.2 #250

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #35 B+ C A- A- B
Defense #22 A+ C+ B+ C A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.37 #17 +6.3 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #278 0.71 #219 -2.1 #279
Three Pointers 43% #152 1.04 #148 +1.3 #136
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #50 +5.5 #50
Freethrows 16.9 #217 75% #111 12.6 #173
Second Chance 35.0% #67 1.18 #42 0.41 #39
Turnovers 13.8% #37
Total Offense +7.8 #35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #350 1.08 #86 +6.8 #16
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #20 0.67 #83 -1.9 #310
Three Pointers 43% #129 0.83 #20 +3.1 #77
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #12 +8.0 #12
Freethrows 16.0 #124 74% #261 11.9 #155
Second Chance 26.2% #46 0.95 #82 0.25 #36
Turnovers 16.8% #175
Total Defense +7.8 #22

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #79 -3.4% #13
Shot Type Make % Effect 9.0% #57 -12.6% #18
Possession Length 14.9 #22 19.0 #357
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.33 #3 0.09 #12
Improvement -1.2 #267 +0.0 #190

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 2.0% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 14.0% 15.7% 6.7%
Top 6 Seed 36.1% 39.5% 21.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.0% 79.7% 60.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.4% 78.3% 59.0%
Average Seed 6.8 6.7 7.5
.500 or above 90.2% 93.1% 78.3%
.500 or above in Conference 65.7% 70.8% 44.8%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.6% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.0% 4.6%
First Four7.5% 7.0% 9.3%
First Round72.9% 76.9% 56.5%
Second Round51.0% 54.2% 37.6%
Sweet Sixteen21.5% 23.4% 13.5%
Elite Eight8.3% 9.1% 5.2%
Final Four3.0% 3.2% 2.2%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 12
Quad 25 - 211 - 13
Quad 31 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 201 Nicholls St. W 77-51 97%     14.9   1 - 0 +20.3 +1.9 +18.4
  Fri, Nov 7 212 Valparaiso W 107-59 97%     30.7   2 - 0 +41.9 +26.1 +12.6
  Tue, Nov 11 13 @Louisville L 88-96 30%     -8.3   2 - 1 +13.1 +15.1 -1.3
  Fri, Nov 14 318 Eastern Illinois W 99-53 99%     26.6   3 - 1 +33.7 +26.8 +8.4
  Tue, Nov 18 15 Michigan St. L 66-83 44%     -11.0   3 - 2 +0.0 +3.4 -3.1
  Fri, Nov 21 344 Loyola Maryland W 88-46 99%     26.1   4 - 2 +27.0 +2.9 +23.0
  Wed, Nov 26 314 Tennessee Tech W 104-54 99%     17.7   5 - 2 +38.2 +21.4 +15.0
  Tue, Dec 2 26 North Carolina L 64-67 63%     1.5   5 - 3 +9.0 +3.1 +5.6
  Fri, Dec 5 6 Gonzaga L 59-94 32%     -20.5   5 - 4 -14.5 -6.1 -8.2
  Tue, Dec 9 346 NC Central W 103-67 99%     19.0   6 - 4 +20.8 +22.0 -2.1
  Sat, Dec 13 28 Indiana W 72-60 65%     -0.2   7 - 4 +23.7 +8.8 +15.4
  Sat, Dec 20 22 St. John's W 78-66 49%     2.7   8 - 4 +27.8 +13.9 +14.1
  Tue, Dec 23 291 Bellarmine W 99-85 98%     8.2   9 - 4 +3.8 +21.5 -17.1
  Sat, Jan 3 12 @Alabama L 74-89 28%     -11.0   9 - 5 0 - 1 +6.6 +5.8 +1.2
  Wed, Jan 7 56 Missouri W 83-74 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 64 Mississippi St. W 81-71 83%    
  Wed, Jan 14 38 @LSU L 76-77 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 17 @Tennessee L 71-75 34%    
  Wed, Jan 21 46 Texas W 82-75 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 70 Mississippi W 77-67 83%    
  Tue, Jan 27 7 @Vanderbilt L 75-83 23%    
  Sat, Jan 31 21 @Arkansas L 79-83 38%    
  Wed, Feb 4 44 Oklahoma W 82-75 73%    
  Sat, Feb 7 17 Tennessee W 74-72 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 14 @Florida L 74-79 32%    
  Tue, Feb 17 20 Georgia W 86-84 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 29 @Auburn L 78-80 43%    
  Tue, Feb 24 88 @South Carolina W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 7 Vanderbilt L 78-80 43%    
  Tue, Mar 3 43 @Texas A&M W 81-80 50%    
  Sat, Mar 7 14 Florida W 77-76 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.7 5.0 0.7 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 6.0 2.1 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.4 4.5 4.3 0.4 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 5.6 1.3 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 4.6 3.2 0.2 8.5 9th
10th 0.1 2.3 4.4 0.8 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.8 1.9 0.1 6.6 11th
12th 0.2 2.1 2.3 0.3 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.9 9.6 13.6 15.9 16.3 13.9 9.6 5.9 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 95.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-3 80.7% 0.8    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 52.4% 1.5    0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 19.2% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.0% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 2.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.9% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 3.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.9% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 4.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.6% 99.9% 12.4% 87.5% 4.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 13.9% 99.9% 7.5% 92.4% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 4.3 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 16.3% 98.8% 5.0% 93.8% 6.9 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.5 5.2 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.7%
9-9 15.9% 92.0% 3.5% 88.5% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.6 3.6 2.9 0.9 1.3 91.7%
8-10 13.6% 66.2% 2.2% 64.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.6 3.9 0.2 4.6 65.4%
7-11 9.6% 26.0% 1.0% 25.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.1 25.2%
6-12 5.9% 4.4% 0.9% 3.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.6 3.5%
5-13 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 3.2 0.3%
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 76.0% 6.2% 69.8% 6.8 0.4 1.4 4.4 7.8 10.5 11.7 11.8 8.4 6.5 6.3 6.5 0.4 0.0 24.0 74.4%