North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.3 138
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 146
Pace 63.6 319
Improvement +0.7 162

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 278 D C+ C- B- B
Defense B 49 B C- A+ D C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% 6 C- 56% 236 +5.1 29
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 96 F+ 30% 360 -2.0 276
Three Pointers 31% 345 F 27% 364 -8.1 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 64 D- -5.8 346
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 328
Second Chance B- 33.9% 82 C- 1.00 219 C+ 0.34 112
Turnovers C- 17.5% 228
Freethrows B 0.35 50 C- 71% 241 B- 0.25 93
Total Offense D+ -3.9 278

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 238 B- 9.5% 97
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 160 F 12.5% 364
Three Pointers D+ 80% 276 C- 1.0% 219
Total D 50% 307 D- 7.4% 338

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 207 C+ 55% 112 -1.4 124
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 95 B 35% 72 +0.2 207
Three Pointers 39% 237 B 31% 76 -2.4 81
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 106 B -3.2 60
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 60
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 284 C 1.02 171 C- 0.34 247
Turnovers A+ 22.7% 6
Freethrows D- 0.37 330 B- 70% 79 D 0.26 319
Total Defense B +5.3 49

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 208 C+ 12.9% 97
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 13% 7 A 9.9% 16
Three Pointers C- 86% 238 A+ 3.3% 4
Total C+ 53% 130 A- 8.5% 26

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 286 17.5 230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 42 0.18 224
Improvement +1.6 #110 -0.9 #240

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 169 141 116
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 10 7 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.9
.500 or above 75% 85% 53%
.500 or above in Conference 62% 76% 34%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 36 - 47 - 12
Quad 49 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 280 Northwestern St. W 80 - 53 85% +8  95% 1 - 0 A- +17 A+ +15 A A+ D+ A- +8 C A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 277 Loyola Chicago W 64 - 62 78% +4  75% 2 - 0 C- -5 F -10 F+ F F B+ +6 A+ C C+
 Wed, Nov 12 160 @Oregon St. L 64 - 66 44% +6  90% 2 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 B C F B- +3 A- B D-
 Fri, Nov 14 41 @St. Mary's L 49 - 80 9% -23  4% 2 - 2 F+ -15 F -15 F D- A- C -1 A F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 180 Central Arkansas W 74 - 56 70% +5  75% 3 - 2 B+ +14 D+ -2 F D+ A A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 201 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 OT 74% +2  69% 4 - 2 C+ +3 D -5 F B- C A- +8 A B B-
 Sun, Nov 30 334 Prairie View W 72 - 69 92% -2  24% 5 - 2 D- -11 F+ -10 B F F C -1 C- D+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 294 Houston Christian W 77 - 75 86% +1  58% 6 - 2 D -9 B +6 A+ B F F -14 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 50 TCU L 55 - 65 27% -2  24% 6 - 3 C- -2 F -12 F+ C- C- A +9 A F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 188 @South Alabama W 58 - 57 51% +4  79% 7 - 3 C+ +2 F -11 F B F A+ +13 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 42 Santa Clara L 60 - 63 16% +2  60% 7 - 4 B +9 F+ -9 F A B+ A+ +18 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 103 @Memphis L 48 - 57 26% -8  0% 7 - 5 0 - 1 C -1 F -18 F C F A+ +16 C- B- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 77 Tulsa W 72 - 67 38% -0  39% 8 - 5 1 - 1 B +10 B- +4 C- A B+ B+ +6 A+ F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 57 South Florida L 70 - 74 31% -0  43% 8 - 6 1 - 2 C+ +2 C- -1 B- C+ C B +4 B- F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 97 @Wichita St. L 67 - 78 25% -8  4% 8 - 7 1 - 3 C- -3 D+ -4 F B+ C C+ +1 F B- A+
 Sun, Jan 18 163 @Tulane W 71 - 63 44% +6  87% 9 - 7 2 - 3 B +11 C +0 C D+ F A +11 A+ C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 21 335 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 62 92% +14  99% 10 - 7 3 - 3 C+ +5 C +2 C A+ F+ B +4 C+ A+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 242 East Carolina L 59 - 63 80% -3  3% 10 - 8 3 - 4 D- -11 F -14 F C- A+ C+ +2 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 77 @Tulsa L 66 - 82 19% -4  5% 10 - 9 3 - 5 D+ -5 F+ -9 D- D- D+ B- +3 B D- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 123 UAB L 68 - 72 56% -0  49% 10 - 10 3 - 6 C- -4 D+ -3 D- D A+ C -1 F C A+
 Wed, Feb 4 233 @Rice L 83 - 86 2OT 58% +1  45% 10 - 11 3 - 7 C- -4 D -6 F+ D+ B B- +2 A- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 335 @Texas San Antonio W 81 - 58 82% +10  57% 11 - 11 4 - 7 A- +15 C+ +2 D+ A- D- A+ +12 B- B- A+
 Thu, Feb 12 103 Memphis W 76 - 69 48% -0  42% 12 - 11 5 - 7 B +9 B +6 C- A+ D+ B- +3 B+ D+ A-
 Sun, Feb 15 152 @Temple W 65 - 62 43% -3  24% 13 - 11 6 - 7 B- +6 D+ -4 F C+ A+ A +10 D- B A+
 Wed, Feb 18 163 Tulane W 68 - 63 66%
 Thu, Feb 19 163 Tulane L 71 - 77 67% +3  65% 13 - 12 6 - 8 D -9 C- -1 F A+ C- F+ -9 C- F C+
 Sun, Feb 22 118 Florida Atlantic W 68 - 67 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 178 @Charlotte L 66 - 67 48%
 Sun, Mar 1 123 @UAB L 66 - 70 34%
 Wed, Mar 4 233 Rice W 71 - 63 78%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 10 +1 D+ -4 D- D- B B +5 F C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- F+ F D- 49% 45% 31% B D B- C- C+ C- B C- B- B C+ B B B 38% 23% 39% C+ B D+ C C- A+ D- B- D
1.03 56% 30% 27% -6 +1 0.92 34% 1.0 .34 18% .35 71% .25 1.01 55% 35% 31% -3 0 0.95 33% 1.0 .34 23% .37 70% .25
Nov
6		 Northwestern St. A+ A- A A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% C+ A A+ B A+ D+ A+ F B+ A- A+ F A- D+ 16% 41% 44% A+ C F A+ A+ A+ F C F
1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29 0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46
Nov
9		 Loyola Chicago F C+ F D+ F 50% 21% 29% B F+ B+ F F F A+ B A+ B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% C A+ D- B+ C C+ F C F
0.97 57% 11% 33% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.5 .16 18% .50 81% .41 0.94 53% 20% 18% -16 +1 0.73 36% 0.8 .30 20% .59 68% .40
Nov
12		 Oregon St. D+ D+ A+ C C+ 56% 7% 37% A B A- F+ C F C D- C- B- A+ F C A 37% 9% 53% F+ A- A- D B D- F D- F
1.02 52% 67% 33% -2 +3 1.05 40% 0.8 .33 22% .33 69% .22 1.05 31% 50% 35% -8 +1 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 14% .52 82% .43
Nov
14		 St. Mary's F F F C- F 47% 17% 36% A- F D+ F D- A- C A+ B C A+ A+ D A+ 47% 13% 40% F+ A F C- F A+ F+ C F+
0.73 16% 22% 32% -24 +1 0.57 21% 0.7 .15 12% .24 86% .20 1.20 43% 17% 39% -7 +2 0.91 54% 1.2 .62 22% .41 81% .33
Nov
20		 Central Arkansas D+ A F F F 43% 25% 32% D+ F B- F D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A 37% 16% 47% C- A- D- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46 0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36
Nov
25		 Eastern Washington D C D F F 42% 17% 42% C F C- A- B- C A+ F A A- C+ A- A- A 40% 26% 34% B- A D- A+ B B- D+ D- D
1.08 60% 38% 20% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 16% .49 67% .33 0.97 55% 31% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 0.8 .28 21% .33 79% .26
Nov
30		 Prairie View F+ A+ F A+ B 52% 20% 27% C+ B C- F F F A+ D A C C+ C- A C 49% 27% 24% F C- B+ F D+ C D+ F D-
1.02 74% 0% 50% +7 +1 1.18 34% 0.6 .21 27% .51 69% .35 0.98 54% 38% 25% -5 0 0.92 18% 1.5 .27 16% .37 82% .30
Dec
2		 Houston Christian B C+ F A+ A+ 61% 5% 34% A+ A+ C+ B+ B F A+ F C- F F C- F F 39% 18% 43% C- F A A+ A+ F F A+ F
1.24 64% 0% 64% +17 +4 1.44 35% 1.2 .42 24% .40 47% .19 1.21 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.23 21% 0.3 .06 6% .55 59% .33
Dec
7		 TCU F C F F F 59% 14% 27% A+ F+ F A+ C- C- B+ C+ B+ A C F+ A+ A 40% 30% 30% A A D F+ F+ A+ F A D
0.82 54% 17% 17% -12 +2 0.82 14% 1.8 .24 21% .32 71% .23 0.97 59% 46% 15% -6 -1 0.88 38% 1.2 .47 25% .44 64% .28
Dec
14		 South Alabama F C- A+ F F 20% 4% 76% C+ F C A+ B F A D- A- A+ A B A+ A+ 67% 14% 19% F A+ F+ F F A- F D+ F
0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22 0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28
Dec
17		 Santa Clara F+ D- B F F 61% 12% 27% A F B A+ A B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ C A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% B A+ F+ F F A+ D A+ C
0.89 52% 40% 9% -13 +3 0.80 34% 1.3 .45 18% .49 70% .34 0.93 53% 44% 24% -7 0 0.87 43% 1.6 .70 31% .28 62% .17
Dec
31		 Memphis F D+ C- F F 52% 13% 35% A F D- A C F F F F A+ D+ F A D+ 39% 24% 37% C C- C- B+ B- A+ D+ A+ A+
0.72 54% 33% 6% -17 +2 0.72 26% 1.1 .29 27% .17 63% .10 0.86 63% 50% 27% +1 0 1.02 38% 1.0 .38 30% .32 27% .09
Jan
4		 Tulsa B- C+ F B+ C 44% 27% 29% C- C- B- A+ A B+ A- B+ A- B+ A D A A+ 51% 16% 33% C+ A+ C F F+ A+ F D- F
1.16 60% 25% 38% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 13% .33 78% .26 1.08 45% 43% 29% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 21% .51 84% .43
Jan
7		 South Florida C- B D- C+ C+ 46% 26% 28% B- B- C+ C+ C+ C B F F+ B C- A+ A B 50% 11% 39% C B- C F F A+ F C- F
1.02 61% 31% 36% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 19% .36 45% .16 1.08 58% 25% 27% -6 +2 0.95 39% 1.5 .58 25% .70 75% .53
Jan
11		 Wichita St. D+ F F B+ F 60% 25% 15% A F A- B- B+ C A B A C+ C F+ F F 52% 25% 23% C- F D A- B- A+ F D- F
0.94 39% 29% 38% -13 +1 0.78 36% 1.0 .36 17% .37 73% .27 1.10 57% 45% 50% +7 0 1.16 43% 0.8 .36 25% .55 72% .40
Jan
18		 Tulane C F+ D B+ D+ 47% 13% 40% B+ C A F D+ F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ 25% 23% 52% A- A+ C+ C C+ B- F C+ F
1.06 48% 33% 39% -3 +2 1.00 44% 0.6 .28 22% .52 81% .42 0.94 36% 10% 35% -11 -1 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .59 76% .44
Jan
21		 Texas San Antonio C C+ F B- C- 43% 12% 45% B- C A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ F A+ B A D B- C- 27% 27% 45% A C+ A A+ A+ A F F F
1.19 62% 17% 36% +1 +1 1.06 54% 1.1 .59 19% .47 62% .29 0.91 42% 42% 30% -6 -2 0.86 24% 0.5 .12 22% .45 83% .38
Jan
23		 East Carolina F D+ F F F 41% 26% 33% C F C- C+ C- A+ C+ D- C C+ A+ A+ F B- 33% 30% 38% B+ B- F F F A+ F D F
0.92 55% 21% 17% -14 -1 0.72 29% 1.2 .33 11% .28 69% .19 0.98 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 45% 1.2 .55 28% .50 74% .37
Jan
28		 Tulsa F+ F+ A+ F F 56% 12% 33% A D- B F D- D+ A+ F B+ B- C+ B+ B- A- 56% 6% 38% F+ B C F D- B+ D+ F+ D-
0.93 48% 50% 24% -9 +2 0.88 30% 0.7 .21 17% .37 64% .24 1.16 56% 33% 33% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.6 .48 18% .36 86% .31
Jan
31		 UAB D+ C+ C- F F+ 50% 23% 27% B- D- C- F D A+ A+ C A+ C F F C F 43% 23% 34% C- F B+ F C A+ C- A+ B-
1.02 62% 33% 14% -7 +1 0.88 25% 0.7 .17 9% .38 74% .28 1.08 70% 45% 31% +5 0 1.13 27% 1.3 .33 18% .33 61% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Rice D A+ D+ F D- 31% 41% 28% F+ F+ B F D+ B B+ F C+ B- F A+ B+ B+ 13% 37% 50% A+ A- F C- F A+ F C F
1.03 79% 32% 18% -3 -3 0.90 37% 0.8 .29 14% .39 67% .26 1.07 71% 25% 30% -6 -4 0.81 51% 1.0 .49 27% .44 69% .31
Feb
7		 Texas San Antonio C+ A- F F D 48% 19% 33% C+ D+ A+ D- A- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A+ C+ 41% 30% 28% B+ B- B- C B- A+ F B F+
1.16 70% 22% 25% -2 +1 1.00 53% 1.0 .50 19% .41 83% .33 0.83 63% 29% 15% -9 -1 0.83 27% 0.9 .24 26% .35 67% .23
Feb
12		 Memphis B D C+ F D+ 49% 21% 31% B C- A A+ A+ D+ A+ B A+ B- C A+ C B+ 36% 32% 32% A- B+ B- F D+ A- C+ F D
1.10 53% 38% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 1.2 .48 22% .76 76% .58 1.00 59% 20% 33% -6 -2 0.87 34% 1.3 .46 23% .28 87% .25
Feb
15		 Temple D+ D- F F F 60% 20% 20% B+ F B- C- C+ A+ B B- B A F+ D+ F F 14% 33% 52% A+ D- D+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ A+
1.02 50% 30% 10% -14 +2 0.78 33% 1.0 .33 8% .34 75% .26 0.97 67% 43% 41% +8 -3 1.12 31% 0.7 .22 25% .36 53% .19
Feb
19		 Tulane C- F B F F 45% 33% 21% D F B+ A+ A+ C- A+ B- A+ F+ F A+ D+ D+ 38% 21% 42% C+ C- F D+ F C+ D- A- D+
1.08 42% 43% 22% -9 -1 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 18% .54 72% .39 1.17 72% 10% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 15% .43 71% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.9 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 6.6 3.3 9.9 4th
5th 1.6 11.4 0.2 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 9.0 3.8 12.8 6th
7th 0.5 15.0 0.3 15.8 7th
8th 5.1 7.1 12.3 8th
9th 0.5 13.1 0.8 14.4 9th
10th 0.1 7.0 7.5 0.0 14.6 10th
11th 1.3 2.9 0.1 4.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.6 10.5 26.4 33.6 22.3 5.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 5.6% 7.6% 7.6% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.2
10-8 22.3% 3.7% 3.7% 12.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 21.5
9-9 33.6% 1.9% 1.9% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 32.9
8-10 26.4% 1.3% 1.3% 14.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 26.0
7-11 10.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.4
6-12 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 13.2 97.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.3 1.6 64.3 33.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%
Lose Out 0.7%