North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#77
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#89
Pace58.9#361
Improvement-0.3#204

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#182
First Shot-3.7#285
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#36
Layup/Dunks-3.2#279
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#298
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#235
Freethrows+3.5#38
Improvement-2.0#319

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#13
First Shot+3.9#68
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#10
Layups/Dunks+7.0#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#245
Freethrows-1.8#288
Improvement+1.7#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 17.0% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 12.0
.500 or above 96.8% 96.8% 79.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 91.9% 78.1%
Conference Champion 17.6% 17.6% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
First Round16.5% 16.5% 12.5%
Second Round5.0% 5.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 38 - 312 - 9
Quad 49 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 243   Evansville W 80-63 91%     1 - 0 +9.7 +11.4 -0.2
  Nov 13, 2024 112   @ Minnesota W 54-51 53%     2 - 0 +9.5 -2.0 +12.2
  Nov 18, 2024 95   @ McNeese St. L 61-68 45%     2 - 1 +1.6 -2.9 +3.9
  Nov 25, 2024 76   Oregon St. W 58-55 61%     3 - 1 +7.4 -1.2 +9.2
  Nov 28, 2024 113   Northern Iowa W 68-48 65%     4 - 1 +23.4 +2.3 +22.7
  Nov 29, 2024 52   Utah St. L 57-61 40%     4 - 2 +5.7 -5.6 +10.9
  Dec 06, 2024 141   @ High Point L 71-76 62%     4 - 3 -0.9 -4.3 +3.3
  Dec 18, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 73-42 99.9%   
  Dec 20, 2024 163   Appalachian St. W 64-53 84%    
  Dec 22, 2024 351   Houston Christian W 75-52 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 124   UAB W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 05, 2025 32   @ Memphis L 62-71 21%    
  Jan 08, 2025 168   Rice W 65-54 84%    
  Jan 14, 2025 159   @ East Carolina W 62-58 64%    
  Jan 18, 2025 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 22, 2025 118   Temple W 68-61 75%    
  Jan 26, 2025 92   Florida Atlantic W 71-67 66%    
  Jan 29, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 62-63 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 249   Texas San Antonio W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 03, 2025 124   @ UAB W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 220   Tulane W 70-57 88%    
  Feb 11, 2025 168   @ Rice W 62-57 67%    
  Feb 19, 2025 225   Tulsa W 70-56 89%    
  Feb 23, 2025 148   @ South Florida W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 27, 2025 92   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-70 45%    
  Mar 03, 2025 94   Wichita St. W 65-60 66%    
  Mar 06, 2025 205   Charlotte W 65-53 86%    
  Mar 09, 2025 118   @ Temple W 65-64 55%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 5.4 4.5 2.3 0.5 17.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 8.3 8.9 4.5 1.2 0.1 27.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.6 7.4 5.0 1.2 0.1 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.6 9.8 12.9 15.3 15.3 13.6 9.9 5.7 2.4 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 95.3% 2.3    2.0 0.3
16-2 79.6% 4.5    3.4 1.2 0.0
15-3 54.2% 5.4    2.9 2.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 25.9% 3.5    1.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.4% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 10.3 5.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 87.1% 45.9% 41.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 76.1%
17-1 2.4% 61.4% 40.5% 20.8% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 35.0%
16-2 5.7% 40.2% 32.9% 7.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.4 10.9%
15-3 9.9% 29.1% 27.0% 2.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.1 0.0 7.0 2.9%
14-4 13.6% 22.6% 22.4% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.1 10.5 0.3%
13-5 15.3% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.7 0.0%
12-6 15.3% 14.0% 14.0% 12.0 0.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.1
11-7 12.9% 8.7% 8.7% 12.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 11.7
10-8 9.8% 5.6% 5.6% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.2
9-9 6.6% 3.4% 3.4% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4
8-10 4.2% 2.5% 2.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1
7-11 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.9% 15.6% 1.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 5.6 8.1 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 83.1 1.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.7 2.0 17.6 29.4 27.5 10.8 9.8 1.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 83.3% 9.0 1.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 16.7 16.7 20.0 16.7 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 83.3% 9.1 5.6 11.1 5.6 16.7 27.8 16.7