UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.4 137
Expected Predictive Rating +1.9 133
Pace 68.7 179
Improvement -6.8 359

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 221 C+ D+ C+ D B
Defense B- 87 B C+ C- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 91 C+ 59% 137 +2.5 93
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 306 C- 37% 228 -3.0 324
Three Pointers 45% 104 C 34% 165 +2.1 105
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 39 C +0.4 156
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 120
Second Chance D 26.2% 300 C- 0.99 228 D+ 0.26 299
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 150
Freethrows D 0.27 296 D 68% 312 D 0.18 318
Total Offense C- -1.7 221

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 291 C 11.3% 199
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 168 D+ 6.6% 282
Three Pointers B- 89% 81 C 0.9% 189
Total C 56% 178 C- 6.0% 228

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 289 B- 54% 76 -3.6 65
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 219 C+ 37% 154 -0.7 129
Three Pointers 46% 40 B 32% 79 +1.0 236
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 154 B -3.3 58
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 67
Second Chance C+ 28.7% 107 C 1.04 204 C+ 0.30 141
Turnovers C- 16.1% 223
Freethrows B 0.27 59 B 69% 50 B 0.18 48
Total Defense B- +3.2 87

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 324 C- 9.4% 232
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 283 D+ 2.9% 301
Three Pointers C+ 82% 110 D+ 0.5% 278
Total D+ 61% 292 D 4.0% 307

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.5 90 17.9 277
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 116 0.19 238
Improvement -10.3 #365 +3.5 #28

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 168 139 116
Conference Record 9 - 11 11 - 9 13 - 7
Conference Finish 8 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 12% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 93% 100% 90%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round9% 12% 7%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 39 - 510 - 8
Quad 410 - 320 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 294 Houston Christian W 78 - 60 87% +13  76% 1 - 0 B- +7 D+ -2 B- D- C+ A +10 C A- A
 Wed, Nov 12 133 @Fresno St. W 78 - 73 38% +4  74% 2 - 0 B +10 B +6 A B- F B +4 C+ B B-
 Sat, Nov 15 186 Idaho W 75 - 67 72% -3  25% 3 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C+ D- C- B+ +6 A C- C
 Mon, Nov 24 152 Temple W 91 - 76 55% +9  88% 4 - 0 A- +15 A+ +16 A+ F A+ C -1 B+ F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 120 Bradley W 87 - 77 45% +3  68% 5 - 0 B+ +13 A +13 C+ A A+ C -0 B- F A
 Wed, Nov 26 167 Towson W 87 - 73 57% +13  96% 6 - 0 B+ +14 A+ +22 A+ C+ A D- -7 C+ D+ D-
 Tue, Dec 2 79 @Nevada L 70 - 76 20% -4  7% 6 - 1 C+ +4 B- +5 F+ B+ A+ C -1 D+ D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 264 @Long Beach St. W 80 - 74 66% +4  75% 7 - 1 1 - 0 C+ +3 B +7 A F B- D+ -3 D B F+
 Sat, Dec 13 163 Tulane W 93 - 67 56% +16  90% 8 - 1 A+ +26 B+ +8 A- C- B A+ +15 A B+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 153 @Loyola Marymount W 67 - 57 44% +3  65% 9 - 1 B+ +13 D -6 B- C F A+ +19 B A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 220 San Diego L 80 - 82 77% -7  6% 9 - 2 D -8 B+ +9 C+ C A F -17 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 231 @Cal Poly L 65 - 67 59% +2  77% 9 - 3 1 - 1 C- -3 F+ -8 F B C B+ +5 A D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 117 Hawaii W 83 - 73 56% +7  72% 10 - 3 2 - 1 B +10 A +14 B+ A A D+ -4 B- D- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 205 Cal St. Fullerton L 71 - 88 75% -4  45% 10 - 4 2 - 2 F -23 D- -7 F A F F -16 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 279 @UC Riverside W 69 - 66 69% -1  41% 11 - 4 3 - 2 C -1 C- -2 B- C- F+ C+ +1 A- F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 159 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 84 67% -2  22% 11 - 5 3 - 3 D -8 C -0 D- B- A+ D- -8 B F F
 Sat, Jan 17 331 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83 - 62 82% +13  89% 12 - 5 4 - 3 B+ +13 C+ +3 C- D A+ A +10 C+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 179 @UC Davis W 80 - 74 49% +1  58% 13 - 5 5 - 3 B- +8 C +1 B D- D B+ +6 A B- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 116 UC Irvine L 59 - 61 56% -1  26% 13 - 6 5 - 4 C- -2 F -11 C+ F A A +9 A- A- D-
 Thu, Jan 29 144 UC Santa Barbara L 48 - 62 63% -9  4% 13 - 7 5 - 5 F+ -16 F -28 D- F F A+ +11 A+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 31 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 64 - 81 44% -7  10% 13 - 8 5 - 6 D- -14 F -14 F D B- C+ +1 C F+ A-
 Thu, Feb 5 264 Long Beach St. W 77 - 74 83% -1  32% 14 - 8 6 - 6 D+ -6 D- -7 D+ C F C+ +1 D+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 117 @Hawaii L 67 - 72 33% -4  22% 14 - 9 6 - 7 C +1 D -6 C+ F B- A- +7 B B- C
 Thu, Feb 12 179 UC Davis W 68 - 51 71% +11  80% 15 - 9 7 - 7 B+ +13 F+ -10 A- F F A+ +22 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 279 UC Riverside W 72 - 66 85% +5  87% 16 - 9 8 - 7 C- -4 F+ -8 D- F+ C+ B +4 A B- D-
 Sat, Feb 21 116 @UC Irvine L 65 - 70 34%
 Thu, Feb 26 331 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 65 93%
 Sat, Feb 28 231 Cal Poly W 84 - 76 78%
 Thu, Mar 5 205 @Cal St. Fullerton W 78 - 77 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 70 - 73 40%
Totals 19 - 11 11 - 9 +1 C- -2 F C B B- +3 C D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C- C C 42% 27% 45% B C+ D C- D+ C+ D D D B- B- C+ B B 35% 19% 46% C B C+ C C+ C- B B B
1.06 59% 37% 34% 0 +1 1.05 26% 1.0 .26 16% .27 68% .18 1.04 54% 37% 32% -3 0 0.95 29% 1.0 .30 16% .27 69% .19
Nov
8		 Houston Christian D+ B- C A B 36% 16% 48% C- B- D- D+ D- C+ D- B D A D- A B- C- 34% 22% 44% B- C A+ C A- A C+ A+ A+
1.12 67% 38% 42% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 17% .23 77% .17 0.86 65% 27% 32% -2 0 0.98 19% 0.9 .16 23% .26 36% .09
Nov
12		 Fresno St. B A+ A+ C- A 27% 10% 63% B- A B+ D+ B- F C- F F B A- D- C- B- 41% 18% 41% C C+ F+ A+ B B- F+ C- F+
1.10 86% 60% 30% +6 +1 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 25% .24 46% .11 1.03 50% 44% 35% -1 0 1.00 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 76% .28
Nov
15		 Idaho D+ B+ F D- C 50% 15% 35% A+ C+ F A+ D- C- A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A- C- A 24% 14% 62% B- A C+ D- C- C D- B- D
1.07 67% 29% 29% +1 +2 1.06 13% 1.5 .19 16% .48 79% .37 0.96 25% 29% 35% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.1 .29 16% .34 70% .24
Nov
24		 Temple A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 18% 44% C A+ F F F A+ C+ F F C C- A A+ A- 38% 19% 43% C- B+ B- F F D- D- B- D
1.33 76% 70% 50% +23 0 1.49 7% 0.5 .04 7% .32 45% .14 1.11 60% 30% 26% -6 0 0.91 26% 1.5 .39 10% .42 73% .31
Nov
25		 Bradley A D- D A- C- 41% 12% 47% A+ C+ D+ A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ C A F+ C+ B 31% 14% 55% D B- F F F A B+ C+ B+
1.24 50% 33% 39% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.7 .45 13% .51 74% .38 1.10 47% 43% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.5 .55 20% .27 73% .20
Nov
26		 Towson A+ A- D+ A+ A+ 31% 22% 47% D+ A+ D- A+ C+ A C- F F D- C+ B C+ C+ 25% 33% 42% B+ C+ D+ D+ D+ D- D+ F F
1.36 67% 36% 65% +24 -1 1.49 20% 1.4 .28 11% .26 47% .12 1.14 54% 35% 32% -3 -3 0.90 39% 0.9 .34 14% .31 82% .25
Dec
2		 Nevada B- D- C+ F F 56% 9% 35% A+ F+ B- A- B+ A+ F C+ F C D D- B+ C- 46% 20% 35% F D+ D- C D C- C- A+ A-
1.09 47% 40% 20% -13 +3 0.81 30% 1.4 .42 6% .18 73% .13 1.18 62% 44% 31% +2 +1 1.07 39% 1.1 .42 12% .39 59% .23
Dec
6		 Long Beach St. B B D- A+ A 45% 13% 43% B+ A F F F B- A C+ A D+ C- F C D 29% 23% 48% D+ D C+ A- B F+ A+ B A+
1.18 67% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.26 18% 0.8 .14 16% .44 76% .33 1.09 63% 46% 33% +3 -1 1.05 25% 0.9 .22 13% .17 70% .12
Dec
13		 Tulane B+ B F A- B 53% 5% 42% A+ A- B F C- B F C- F+ A+ C C A+ A 42% 25% 33% C+ A B- A+ B+ A B- A B+
1.19 63% 0% 40% +4 +3 1.17 40% 0.8 .30 15% .24 69% .17 0.86 58% 36% 16% -10 0 0.82 20% 0.9 .17 19% .35 68% .24
Dec
16		 Loyola Marymount D A- F F C+ 57% 16% 27% A+ B- B F+ C F B+ F F+ A+ A- F B B 24% 20% 57% C B A- A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+
0.95 64% 25% 23% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.8 .31 23% .35 47% .16 0.80 50% 50% 31% -2 -1 0.96 21% 0.5 .11 25% .19 40% .08
Dec
19		 San Diego B+ B- A+ D+ C 44% 6% 50% A- C+ D- A+ C A D- B- D F B+ F C C+ 38% 15% 47% F+ C F F+ F D+ B- F D-
1.26 65% 67% 31% +2 +2 1.12 28% 1.4 .38 14% .29 75% .22 1.29 52% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 39% 1.1 .45 16% .21 109% .22
Jan
1		 Cal Poly F+ F F F F 32% 15% 53% C- F B- B+ B C D- A+ C- B+ C A+ A A 26% 7% 67% B A D- C+ D+ F A- A- A
0.98 41% 25% 25% -14 0 0.74 35% 1.2 .42 17% .23 85% .20 1.01 57% 0% 28% -9 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 14% .24 71% .17
Jan
3		 Hawaii A D- A+ D+ B 45% 13% 42% B+ B+ B A+ A A D- A+ C+ D+ C+ F A+ B 46% 9% 46% D- B- A F D- D- C+ F D+
1.23 48% 86% 30% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.3 .41 12% .25 87% .22 1.08 57% 75% 24% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.7 .40 16% .34 84% .28
Jan
8		 Cal St. Fullerton D- C D- F F 27% 6% 67% B- F B+ A A F A- A+ A+ F F A+ F F 29% 21% 50% B F A F D F D- A+ C
1.02 62% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.3 .44 24% .38 90% .34 1.27 73% 9% 50% +10 -1 1.21 18% 1.7 .30 9% .38 63% .24
Jan
10		 UC Riverside C- A+ C F C+ 49% 12% 39% B+ B- C D+ C- F+ A+ C- A+ C+ B- D A+ A- 27% 24% 49% A A- F+ F F C+ F F F
1.07 75% 40% 25% +3 +2 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 19% .47 68% .32 1.02 54% 42% 25% -7 -1 0.86 33% 1.2 .38 20% .39 85% .33
Jan
15		 Cal St. Northridge C D C+ F F+ 38% 17% 45% B- D- D- A+ B- A+ C- C- D+ D- B+ F A- B 48% 20% 31% C+ B D F F F F C F
1.09 52% 40% 26% -7 +1 0.88 21% 1.7 .36 8% .29 74% .21 1.16 50% 45% 29% -5 +1 0.94 36% 1.2 .44 10% .44 66% .29
Jan
17		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ D- F A D+ 43% 14% 43% B- C- F A+ D A+ D D+ D- A A A- C- B- 29% 29% 43% C- C+ C+ A+ A+ B- F B F
1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22 0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34
Jan
22		 UC Davis C A- A+ D- B 45% 8% 47% B+ B B- F D- D A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B- F A+ 38% 16% 47% D A B- B B- D- C A B
1.08 68% 75% 30% +5 +2 1.16 34% 0.6 .22 22% .46 70% .33 0.99 27% 33% 41% -8 +1 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 15% .33 67% .22
Jan
24		 UC Irvine F C C- D+ C+ 31% 19% 50% C+ C+ F F F A F D- F A A- C+ A- A- 40% 35% 25% B A- A+ D A- D- A A+ A+
0.84 50% 36% 31% -5 0 0.91 18% 0.0 .00 13% .15 67% .10 0.87 45% 37% 29% -8 -2 0.84 20% 1.1 .23 14% .22 54% .12
Jan
29		 UC Santa Barbara F D F B+ F 57% 12% 31% A D- C- F F F F F F A+ A+ A D A 24% 24% 51% A A+ A+ D- A- C D- A- D+
0.73 54% 0% 38% -5 +2 0.98 26% 0.0 .00 29% .26 58% .15 0.95 36% 27% 39% -4 -1 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 18% .37 70% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Cal St. Northridge F F F D F 43% 16% 41% B F C+ F D B- D+ F F C+ C+ F+ C+ C 48% 17% 35% C C F C- F+ A- F F F
0.85 42% 22% 30% -12 +1 0.80 29% 0.9 .25 15% .28 44% .12 1.08 56% 44% 33% 0 +1 1.04 40% 1.0 .40 21% .39 78% .30
Feb
5		 Long Beach St. D- F C A D 47% 11% 43% A- D+ B- D- C F A+ D+ A+ C+ F B D D 28% 36% 36% B+ D+ A+ F A+ D+ D F F
1.03 45% 40% 40% -2 +2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 24% .51 72% .37 0.99 73% 32% 37% +4 -3 1.04 3% 2.0 .06 16% .32 85% .27
Feb
7		 Hawaii D C+ C+ D- C+ 38% 18% 45% C+ C+ F A+ F B- D+ F D- A- D- F A+ B+ 42% 8% 50% D B D+ A B- C D+ A C+
0.90 57% 40% 28% -4 0 0.95 5% 2.0 .11 15% .28 56% .16 0.97 67% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.8 .28 19% .38 65% .25
Feb
12		 UC Davis F+ B- A+ A A 50% 15% 35% B- A- F C F F F B+ F A+ A A- B A+ 41% 25% 34% C+ A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
0.97 63% 57% 41% +9 +2 1.23 17% 1.0 .17 30% .18 78% .14 0.73 48% 29% 32% -8 0 0.86 20% 0.2 .04 18% .12 14% .02
Feb
14		 UC Riverside F+ B B- F F 45% 14% 41% B D- F+ F F+ C+ C B+ C+ B B+ A+ A- A+ 36% 13% 51% D A A F+ B- D- B- F C-
1.01 65% 43% 19% -5 +1 0.94 23% 0.8 .18 14% .33 75% .25 0.93 50% 14% 29% -10 +1 0.84 18% 1.0 .18 15% .27 88% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.5 1st
2nd 0.6 2.3 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 6.5 2.9 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 5.7 14.4 0.8 21.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 19.7 3.0 24.0 5th
6th 0.1 8.1 10.3 0.1 18.5 6th
7th 1.0 12.0 1.6 14.6 7th
8th 0.4 5.2 3.2 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 6.3 24.6 37.6 24.6 6.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 7.0% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 6.5% 21.4% 21.4% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 5.1
12-8 24.6% 12.1% 12.1% 13.2 0.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 21.6
11-9 37.6% 7.8% 7.8% 13.4 0.1 1.5 1.2 0.1 34.6
10-10 24.6% 5.7% 5.7% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 23.2
9-11 6.3% 5.0% 5.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.0
8-12 0.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.0 0.0 0.4
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 13.3 91.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 12.7 0.2 36.1 57.2 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 0.2%