UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#89
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#53
Pace70.5#163
Improvement+0.4#157

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#73
First Shot+5.9#40
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#280
Layup/Dunks+5.2#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#37
Freethrows-1.7#283
Improvement+0.7#116

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#122
First Shot+4.4#48
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#339
Layups/Dunks+1.3#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#245
Freethrows+3.2#25
Improvement-0.2#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.0% 40.8% 34.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.4% 98.7%
Conference Champion 52.4% 56.4% 47.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round38.0% 40.7% 34.7%
Second Round6.8% 8.1% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 310 - 311 - 5
Quad 414 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 275 Houston Christian W 78-60 91%     1 - 0 +9.0 -0.2 +9.4
  Wed, Nov 12 184 @Fresno St. W 78-73 67%     2 - 0 +6.4 +5.2 +1.1
  Sat, Nov 15 173 Idaho W 75-67 82%     3 - 0 +4.0 -2.1 +6.1
  Mon, Nov 24 163 Temple W 91-76 72%     4 - 0 +14.8 +16.3 -1.2
  Tue, Nov 25 117 Bradley W 87-77 60%     5 - 0 +13.2 +17.2 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 26 139 Towson W 87-73 66%     6 - 0 +15.5 +22.8 -6.1
  Tue, Dec 2 99 @Nevada L 70-76 42%     6 - 1 +2.0 +6.6 -5.2
  Sat, Dec 6 279 @Long Beach St. W 80-74 81%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +2.8 +7.1 -4.2
  Sat, Dec 13 207 Tulane W 93-67 80%     8 - 1 +23.0 +6.8 +13.5
  Tue, Dec 16 134 @Loyola Marymount W 73-72 55%    
  Fri, Dec 19 246 San Diego W 87-73 90%    
  Thu, Jan 1 249 @Cal Poly W 88-80 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 111 Hawaii W 76-71 70%    
  Thu, Jan 8 272 Cal St. Fullerton W 91-76 91%    
  Sat, Jan 10 268 @UC Riverside W 80-71 78%    
  Thu, Jan 15 222 Cal St. Northridge W 88-76 87%    
  Sat, Jan 17 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83-71 86%    
  Thu, Jan 22 201 @UC Davis W 77-72 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 122 UC Irvine W 74-68 71%    
  Thu, Jan 29 151 UC Santa Barbara W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 222 @Cal St. Northridge W 85-79 72%    
  Thu, Feb 5 279 Long Beach St. W 82-67 91%    
  Sun, Feb 8 111 @Hawaii L 73-74 48%    
  Thu, Feb 12 201 UC Davis W 80-69 85%    
  Sat, Feb 14 268 UC Riverside W 83-68 90%    
  Sat, Feb 21 122 @UC Irvine L 71-72 50%    
  Thu, Feb 26 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 86-68 94%    
  Sat, Feb 28 249 Cal Poly W 91-77 89%    
  Thu, Mar 5 272 @Cal St. Fullerton W 88-79 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 151 @UC Santa Barbara W 76-74 58%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 4.6 10.7 13.7 12.8 7.3 2.0 52.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.4 7.8 6.1 2.3 0.3 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 4.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.9 8.0 11.9 14.9 17.2 16.0 13.1 7.3 2.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
19-1 100.0% 7.3    7.2 0.1
18-2 97.8% 12.8    11.8 1.0
17-3 85.7% 13.7    10.7 2.9 0.1 0.0
16-4 62.1% 10.7    6.3 3.9 0.5 0.0
15-5 30.9% 4.6    1.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.8% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 52.4% 52.4 40.1 10.5 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.0% 65.6% 62.2% 3.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.7 8.8%
19-1 7.3% 63.5% 63.0% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 1.4%
18-2 13.1% 52.7% 52.5% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 1.8 4.4 0.7 0.0 6.2 0.4%
17-3 16.0% 47.7% 47.6% 0.0% 12.1 0.9 5.2 1.5 0.1 8.4 0.1%
16-4 17.2% 41.2% 41.2% 12.4 0.3 4.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.1
15-5 14.9% 33.3% 33.3% 12.6 0.1 2.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.9
14-6 11.9% 25.2% 25.2% 12.9 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 8.9
13-7 8.0% 19.6% 19.6% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 6.4
12-8 4.9% 12.3% 12.3% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.3
11-9 2.5% 8.4% 8.4% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
10-10 1.3% 7.1% 7.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-11 0.6% 4.7% 4.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.2% 9.2% 9.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.0% 37.9% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 6.1 19.0 9.9 2.0 0.1 62.0 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 8.7 2.1 5.9 12.6 10.5 7.1 16.4 19.7 23.9 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 14.6% 10.8 1.2 1.2 11.0 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 10.0% 10.4 2.0 2.0 6.0