Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 285
Results Rating -8.3 301
Pace 63.0 327
Improvement +1.1 142

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 88 B+ D- C+ C+ B+
Defense F 365 F F+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 48 B 64% 51 +5.7 17
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 314 C- 36% 240 -3.1 326
Three Pointers 43% 137 B 37% 43 +3.4 71
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.3 31 B +4.5 49
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 37
Second Chance F 19.9% 361 B 1.12 57 D- 0.22 347
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 132
Freethrows C- 0.29 233 A- 79% 7 C+ 0.23 144
Total Offense B- +3.7 88

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 39% 309 B 8.6% 53
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 278 F 9.6% 353
Three Pointers A 97% 2 B 0.4% 60
Total C 56% 161 C+ 5.2% 131

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 332 F 68% 362 -0.7 151
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 296 C- 40% 259 -1.1 107
Three Pointers 51% 6 F 42% 365 +11.2 364
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 166 F +9.2 365
1st FG Attempt F 1.21 365
Second Chance D 34.5% 326 D- 1.15 327 F+ 0.40 346
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 273
Freethrows C- 0.32 220 C- 73% 254 C- 0.23 231
Total Defense F -11.2 365

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 273 D 6.8% 329
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 42% 351 C- 4.1% 219
Three Pointers D+ 87% 263 D+ 0.3% 306
Total F+ 66% 350 D- 3.0% 349

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 350 16.8 86
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 341 0.15 96
Improvement +3.6 #34 -2.5 #302

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Outcome Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		50th Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 308 290 268
Results Rating Rank 326 297 268
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 9 7 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 410 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 32 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2% -18  6% 0 - 1 F -27 F -15 C F F F+ -8 D- A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 96 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 7% -11  1% 0 - 2 F -18 C- -2 D+ C+ C F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 238 Wofford L 86 - 94 49% -8  12% 0 - 3 F+ -15 B- +4 B D+ A- F -19 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 19 86 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 6% -9  10% 0 - 4 C+ +3 B+ +9 A+ F D- D -6 F F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 348 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 60% +5  71% 1 - 4 C+ +2 C +1 C+ F B+ B- +3 A- F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 298 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 52% -1  40% 2 - 4 C- -3 B +6 A F C- D- -8 D+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 123 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 11% -13  0% 2 - 5 D+ -7 D+ -3 A- F C- D -5 F A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 195 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 41% -6  15% 2 - 6 D -9 C- -2 B+ F F D- -7 F C D-
 Wed, Dec 17 274 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 57% -1  35% 3 - 6 B- +6 C +1 B+ F F+ B+ +5 A+ C F
 Tue, Dec 23 25 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 2% -8  6% 3 - 7 C+ +5 A+ +22 A+ A+ C- F -18 F F C
 Thu, Jan 1 317 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 46% -10  0% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D -9 B+ +8 A F A F -17 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 212 @Queens L 76 - 98 23% -10  5% 3 - 9 0 - 2 F -22 D- -6 B+ F F F -15 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 183 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 39% -0  50% 4 - 9 1 - 2 C +2 C+ +2 A- D B+ C -1 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 342 North Alabama L 73 - 82 77% -1  53% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -24 C +1 B D+ B- F -27 F C- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 188 @Lipscomb L 71 - 81 20% -14  0% 4 - 11 1 - 4 D -9 C +1 F D+ A+ F -10 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 279 @Eastern Kentucky L 69 - 89 35% -11  8% 4 - 12 1 - 5 F -24 D -4 F F+ B- F -21 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 306 @Jacksonville W 77 - 70 43% +1  51% 5 - 12 2 - 5 C +1 B+ +9 A D+ D- D- -7 D+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 340 @North Florida L 114 - 117 OT 56% -6  5% 5 - 13 2 - 6 D- -12 A+ +16 A+ D A F -28 F F F
 Wed, Jan 28 317 West Georgia W 77 - 74 69% +5  96% 6 - 13 3 - 6 D -10 B +6 A- D+ A- F -15 F D- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 212 Queens W 78 - 75 44% +0  48% 7 - 13 4 - 6 C- -3 C+ +2 C+ A- C- D -5 B F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 326 Stetson W 92 - 71 72% +11  91% 8 - 13 5 - 6 B- +7 A+ +21 A+ C+ A F -11 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 65 52% +6  79% 9 - 13 6 - 6 B +8 B- +4 A+ F B+ B +5 B+ B+ C-
 Wed, Feb 11 183 @Central Arkansas L 76 - 84 20% +2  58% 9 - 14 6 - 7 D+ -6 B +7 A+ D- F F -14 D- D- F
 Sat, Feb 14 157 @Austin Peay L 70 - 90 16% -15  0% 9 - 15 6 - 8 F+ -17 B+ +8 C A A+ F -29 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 188 Lipscomb L 72 - 75 39% -1  37% 9 - 16 6 - 9 D+ -8 C+ +2 C+ D+ A+ F -10 F A C
 Sat, Feb 21 279 Eastern Kentucky L 92 - 95 58% -6  14% 9 - 17 6 - 10 D- -13 A+ +18 A+ B- D+ F -30 F C- F
 Wed, Feb 25 342 @North Alabama W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 157 Austin Peay L 76 - 80 34%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -7 B- +4 D+ B B+ F -11 B A- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B C- B B 44% 25% 43% B+ B+ F B D- C+ C- A- C+ F F C- F F 32% 17% 51% C F D D- F+ D+ C- C- C-
1.14 64% 36% 37% +4 +1 1.14 20% 1.1 .22 16% .29 79% .23 1.25 68% 40% 42% +9 0 1.21 35% 1.1 .40 15% .32 73% .21
Nov
3		 Georgia F C F F+ D 45% 2% 53% A+ C F F F F F A+ F F+ F+ F B- D 52% 2% 46% F D- A+ C- A- F B- F D+
0.77 54% 0% 29% -7 +3 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 29% .11 83% .09 1.36 72% 100% 32% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 8% .30 90% .27
Nov
8		 Kansas St. C- B+ F F D- 54% 10% 37% A+ D+ C- A- C+ C C F+ D+ F F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ F F+ F
1.00 64% 20% 16% -8 +3 0.90 31% 1.4 .42 18% .29 65% .19 1.38 74% 0% 57% +20 +2 1.45 50% 1.5 .77 25% .43 78% .34
Nov
15		 Wofford B- B+ A+ F+ B- 57% 11% 31% A- B C- C- D+ A- A+ B- A+ F F A+ F F 38% 4% 57% F+ F B A+ A+ B F D- F
1.22 65% 67% 29% +5 +3 1.17 28% 1.1 .31 11% .42 81% .34 1.33 67% 0% 59% +23 +2 1.53 24% 0.2 .04 17% .50 76% .38
Nov
19		 Notre Dame B+ A A+ C- A+ 36% 16% 49% B A+ F C F D- A+ A A+ D F F D- F 35% 23% 42% C F D F F A- F D+ F
1.14 69% 86% 32% +10 0 1.22 8% 1.0 .08 19% .48 81% .39 1.24 80% 60% 39% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 20% .58 72% .41
Nov
24		 The Citadel C C+ F A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% C+ C+ F A+ F B+ C+ F D+ B- F+ A+ A+ A 38% 22% 40% C A- F B F B- F+ C- D-
1.16 65% 17% 45% +7 +1 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 12% .30 56% .17 0.97 65% 20% 17% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.8 .41 20% .33 69% .23
Nov
25		 Houston Christian B A+ F A- A+ 45% 19% 36% C A F F F C- A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D D 32% 25% 43% B D+ C- F F F F A+ B-
1.21 89% 25% 40% +15 +1 1.33 6% 0.0 .00 18% .40 90% .36 1.13 71% 18% 37% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.7 .50 13% .45 38% .17
Dec
6		 Murray St. D+ B A+ C+ B 60% 4% 36% A+ A- F C- F C- C B- C+ D F F F F 40% 13% 48% D F F+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A-
1.04 61% 50% 35% +3 +4 1.15 7% 1.0 .07 17% .29 75% .22 1.24 79% 50% 43% +17 +1 1.38 38% 0.6 .23 20% .21 91% .19
Dec
13		 Northern Kentucky C- C+ A+ A B+ 45% 10% 45% B+ B+ F+ F F F F A+ C+ D- F F+ D+ F 41% 17% 43% C F D+ B C D- C+ A+ A
1.08 59% 60% 41% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 26% .25 100% .25 1.14 73% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 32% 0.9 .30 14% .28 47% .13
Dec
17		 Chattanooga C B F A B+ 39% 12% 49% B- B+ F+ F F F+ B A+ A+ B+ F D A+ A+ 7% 16% 77% A- A+ D A C F B- D- C+
1.17 63% 17% 42% +5 +1 1.14 24% 0.9 .21 18% .39 86% .34 0.94 100% 44% 23% -9 -2 0.81 24% 0.9 .22 10% .25 80% .20
Dec
23		 Kentucky A+ A+ D+ C+ A+ 39% 20% 41% B A+ B+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F F D F F 15% 25% 60% A+ F D+ F F C F C+ D-
1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.2 .41 18% .55 87% .47 1.48 86% 42% 55% +24 -2 1.46 39% 1.4 .54 15% .42 71% .30
Jan
1		 West Georgia B+ A A+ D A- 61% 11% 28% A- A F F F A A+ D- A+ F D+ F C- F 13% 29% 59% B- F F A+ C+ F F+ F F
1.24 71% 60% 31% +9 +3 1.26 20% 0.8 .16 10% .55 68% .37 1.27 57% 56% 33% +5 -3 1.05 39% 0.8 .30 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
3		 Queens D- B F A+ B+ 50% 9% 41% A- B+ F D+ F F A D- B+ F F F F F 16% 2% 82% C- F F+ F F C+ A A+ A+
1.06 65% 0% 47% +9 +2 1.24 10% 1.0 .10 20% .43 68% .30 1.37 78% 100% 40% +12 +1 1.28 35% 1.3 .46 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
8		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ B- B A- 34% 9% 57% B- A- F A+ D B+ D- C D C A A A A+ 25% 14% 61% C+ A+ D- F+ F+ F+ B- F C-
1.13 74% 40% 38% +8 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16 1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20
Jan
10		 North Alabama C A+ F B B 35% 10% 55% C B F A+ D+ B- D F F+ F F A F F 37% 20% 44% B- F F A+ C- D- F F F
1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15 1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33
Jan
15		 Lipscomb C F A+ F F 32% 21% 47% C F C D- D+ A+ A+ D A+ F D F C- D- 39% 9% 52% C- D F C+ F C+ F A+ F
1.07 41% 55% 20% -12 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .27 9% .50 67% .33 1.22 65% 50% 35% +4 +2 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 18% .42 61% .26
Jan
17		 Eastern Kentucky D B- F F F 40% 12% 49% B+ F D- D- F+ B- A+ A- A+ F F A+ F F 22% 13% 64% D- F F F F B- F D- F
1.09 65% 20% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 14% .53 79% .42 1.40 80% 0% 45% +10 0 1.22 44% 1.8 .81 19% .41 76% .31
Jan
22		 Jacksonville B+ D C+ A+ A 56% 11% 33% A A D- C+ D+ D- F A+ D+ D- C+ F B- D+ 43% 13% 43% F+ D+ A F D- F D+ F F
1.23 56% 40% 60% +12 +2 1.31 25% 1.0 .25 18% .27 86% .23 1.12 55% 50% 30% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 13% .31 100% .31
Jan
24		 North Florida A+ A+ F A A+ 55% 9% 36% A- A+ F A+ D A C- A+ B- F F F F F 31% 9% 60% D+ F C F F F F F F
1.44 76% 33% 42% +13 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22 1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28
Jan
28		 West Georgia B A C C+ A- 54% 10% 35% B+ A- D C D+ A- F A+ F+ F B- D+ F F 20% 38% 42% A- F D+ F+ D- C- A+ A+ A+
1.25 73% 40% 35% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .22 83% .18 1.20 50% 42% 52% +12 -4 1.18 32% 1.2 .39 16% .15 38% .06
Jan
31		 Queens C+ C+ A B B- 39% 22% 39% D+ C+ D+ A+ A- C- C- A+ B+ D C- C+ C B- 25% 22% 53% A B F F F D- B+ A+ A+
1.23 61% 50% 39% +7 0 1.15 31% 1.5 .46 16% .34 89% .30 1.18 62% 36% 33% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.4 .50 13% .25 57% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Stetson A+ B+ C A+ A+ 44% 10% 46% B+ A+ D- A+ C+ A F A+ F F F F D+ F 13% 18% 69% B F D+ F F C- C D+ C
1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11 1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20
Feb
7		 Florida Gulf Coast B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% B- A+ F F F B+ D A C- B C- F+ A B 19% 32% 49% A B+ B- B+ B+ C- C B+ C+
1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26 0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18
Feb
11		 Central Arkansas B B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 9% 61% C+ A+ F B D- F F A+ F+ F C+ D F D- 41% 10% 49% F+ D- D+ F+ D- F F B- F
1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14 1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26
Feb
14		 Austin Peay B+ F F A+ D+ 55% 8% 37% A+ C D A+ A A+ F A+ C- F D- F F F 50% 9% 41% F F F F+ F C F F F
1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20 1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48
Feb
18		 Lipscomb C+ B+ F D+ C 44% 15% 41% A- C+ D C D+ A+ F F F F F A+ F F 24% 6% 69% C+ F A A+ A C B F C+
1.13 67% 25% 32% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 11% .19 64% .12 1.17 75% 0% 44% +12 +1 1.29 17% 0.8 .14 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
21		 Eastern Kentucky A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 47% 4% 49% A+ A+ F+ A+ B- D+ C- A+ B F B B F F 13% 13% 74% D+ F B F C- F F F F
1.44 86% 50% 50% +25 +3 1.58 25% 1.5 .38 17% .32 88% .28 1.49 50% 33% 54% +21 -1 1.43 28% 1.3 .36 13% .43 79% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 2.3 2.3 5th
6th 10.7 14.3 25.0 6th
7th 1.3 28.0 3.4 32.7 7th
8th 8.3 11.5 19.8 8th
9th 16.1 1.1 17.1 9th
10th 3.1 3.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 28.8 51.3 20.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 20.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.7 19.2
7-11 51.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 1.0 50.3
6-12 28.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.4 28.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6%
Lose Out 11.7%