Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.4 #303
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #303
Pace 64.8 #287
Improvement -2.3 #289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #123 B F+ C B- B+
Defense #364 F D- C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #42 1.32 #28 +7.2 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #322 0.72 #229 -3.1 #326
Three Pointers 42% #149 1.06 #119 +1.6 #126
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #45 +5.7 #44
Freethrows 0.32 #125 77% #39 0.25 #90
Second Chance 19.8% #363 1.04 #183 0.21 #357
Turnovers 16.5% #183
Total Offense +1.8 #123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #320 1.39 #365 -0.6 #197
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #279 0.81 #274 +0.8 #135
Three Pointers 50% #12 1.23 #364 -9.8 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #364 -9.6 #364
Freethrows 0.31 #200 72% #171 0.22 #193
Second Chance 34.9% #325 1.17 #317 0.41 #344
Turnovers 15.2% #256
Total Defense -10.2 #364

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #28 0.0% #166
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.9% #64 18.7% #365
Possession Length 19.1 #337 16.9 #95
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #290 0.15 #103
Improvement +0.8 #139 -3.1 #330

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.2% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.0% 20.7% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.3% 6.4% 19.6%
First Four1.4% 1.9% 1.1%
First Round1.0% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 49 - 910 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 29 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2% -18  0 - 1 -27 -11 B- F F -12 D- A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 87 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 6% -11  0 - 2 -17 +2 C- C+ C -19 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 211 Wofford L 86 - 94 41% -8  0 - 3 -14 +7 B- B+ A -21 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 81 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 5% -9  0 - 4 +3 +12 A+ F F -9 F F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 351 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 56% +5  1 - 4 +2 +3 C+ F B- +1 A- F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 300 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 49% -1  2 - 4 -3 +6 A F C- -9 C- F F+
 Sat, Dec 6 103 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 7% -13  2 - 5 -5 +1 A F C- -7 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 179 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 35% -6  2 - 6 -8 +0 B+ F F -9 F+ B- D
 Wed, Dec 17 254 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 50% -1  3 - 6 +7 +4 B F D- +3 A+ C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 27 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 2% -8  3 - 7 +4 +25 A+ A+ C- -22 F F+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 328 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 46% -6  3 - 8 0 - 1 -9 +10 A- F A- -19 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 199 @Queens L 76 - 98 20% -10  3 - 9 0 - 2 -22 -3 A- F F -19 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 219 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 42% -0  4 - 9 1 - 2 -0 +3 A- D C+ -4 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 330 North Alabama L 73 - 82 69% -1  4 - 10 1 - 3 -23 +4 B+ D- C -28 F C D+
 Thu, Jan 15 169 @Lipscomb L 71 - 81 16% -14  4 - 11 1 - 4 -8 +4 F D+ A+ -12 F+ F B
 Sat, Jan 17 263 @Eastern Kentucky L 69 - 89 29% -11  4 - 12 1 - 5 -23 -1 F+ F+ C+ -24 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 285 @Jacksonville W 77 - 70 35% +1  5 - 12 2 - 5 +3 +13 A- C- D -9 C- D- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 348 @North Florida L 114 - 117 OT 54% -6  5 - 13 2 - 6 -12 +18 A+ D- A+ -30 F F F
 Wed, Jan 28 328 West Georgia W 77 - 74 68% +8  6 - 13 3 - 6 -10 +7 A+ D B -17 F D C-
 Sat, Jan 31 199 Queens L 82 - 85 40%
 Thu, Feb 5 329 Stetson W 80 - 75 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 232 Florida Gulf Coast L 79 - 80 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 219 @Central Arkansas L 74 - 82 22%
 Sat, Feb 14 172 @Austin Peay L 71 - 82 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 169 Lipscomb L 77 - 82 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 263 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 80 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 330 @North Alabama L 77 - 78 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 172 Austin Peay L 74 - 79 34%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -8 +2 B F+ C -10 F D- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 7.2 3.0 0.2 11.9 6th
7th 0.4 7.0 5.7 0.6 13.7 7th
8th 0.1 4.3 9.8 1.8 0.0 16.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 10.6 4.4 0.1 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 7.3 7.4 0.6 16.1 10th
11th 0.3 3.5 6.3 1.3 0.0 11.4 11th
12th 1.1 3.0 1.2 0.0 5.4 12th
Total 1.4 7.4 16.4 24.1 23.4 16.4 7.6 2.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 9.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.5% 9.5% 9.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.7
9-9 7.6% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.4 7.2
8-10 16.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 15.9
7-11 23.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 23.1
6-12 24.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 23.8
5-13 16.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.4
4-14 7.4% 7.4
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%