IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.2	#319
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.1	#229
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.0	#230

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.2	#356

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.3%	5.6%	2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.6	14.8	15.3

.500 or above	14.4%	43.4%	13.8%
.500 or above in Conference	36.2%	61.4%	35.8%
Conference Champion	2.2%	7.5%	2.1%
Last Place in Conference	11.0%	3.7%	11.1%

First Four	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%
First Round	2.1%	5.6%	2.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 9	10 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	52	@ Georgia	L	60-83	2%
Nov 08, 2025	57	@ Kansas St.	L	60-82	2%
Nov 15, 2025	205	Wofford	L	68-72	37%
Nov 19, 2025	63	@ Notre Dame	L	59-80	3%
Nov 24, 2025	342	@ The Citadel	L	69-70	47%
Nov 25, 2025	288	Houston Christian	L	68-70	43%
Nov 29, 2025	314	@ Northern Illinois	L	72-75	39%
Dec 06, 2025	129	@ Murray St.	L	62-76	11%
Dec 13, 2025	266	@ Northern Kentucky	L	67-73	29%
Dec 17, 2025	134	Chattanooga	L	69-77	25%
Dec 23, 2025	7	@ Kentucky	L	61-93	0.3%
Jan 01, 2026	355	@ West Georgia	W	74-73	56%
Jan 03, 2026	242	@ Queens	L	71-79	26%
Jan 08, 2026	354	Central Arkansas	W	75-68	73%
Jan 10, 2026	191	North Alabama	L	70-74	37%
Jan 15, 2026	188	@ Lipscomb	L	66-76	20%
Jan 17, 2026	181	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	69-80	18%
Jan 22, 2026	245	@ Jacksonville	L	67-75	26%
Jan 24, 2026	330	@ North Florida	L	79-81	43%
Jan 28, 2026	355	West Georgia	W	77-70	73%
Jan 31, 2026	242	Queens	L	74-76	45%
Feb 05, 2026	348	Stetson	W	77-71	69%
Feb 07, 2026	175	Florida Gulf Coast	L	67-72	34%
Feb 12, 2026	354	@ Central Arkansas	W	72-71	55%
Feb 14, 2026	272	@ Austin Peay	L	68-74	31%
Feb 19, 2026	188	Lipscomb	L	69-73	37%
Feb 21, 2026	181	Eastern Kentucky	L	72-77	34%
Feb 25, 2026	191	@ North Alabama	L	67-77	20%
Feb 28, 2026	272	Austin Peay	L	70-71	49%
Projected Record						10 - 19	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.2	1st
2nd												0.2	0.8	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.0				3.3	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.2	2.0	1.0	0.2	0.0					4.7	3rd
4th										0.2	1.5	2.6	1.5	0.2	0.0						6.1	4th
5th									0.2	1.9	3.8	2.1	0.2	0.0							8.2	5th
6th								0.3	2.2	4.7	2.5	0.3									10.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	2.8	5.2	3.3	0.5	0.0									12.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	3.1	5.3	3.6	0.6	0.0										13.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.5	3.0	5.1	3.5	0.6	0.0											12.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.7	3.2	4.6	2.4	0.5	0.0												11.5	10th
11th		0.1	0.9	2.7	3.5	1.8	0.4	0.0													9.4	11th
12th	0.4	1.2	2.1	1.9	1.0	0.1															6.7	12th

Total	0.4	1.3	3.0	5.3	8.2	10.0	11.3	12.5	11.8	10.7	8.6	6.4	4.7	2.8	1.6	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	93.0%	0.4		0.3	0.1
15-3	68.1%	0.6		0.4	0.2	0.0
14-4	40.6%	0.7		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	12.9%	0.4		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0								0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.2%	2.2		1.1	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		100.0%	100.0%		12.0													0.0
17-1	0.1%		49.6%	49.6%		13.5														0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.4%		29.3%	29.3%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.3
15-3	0.9%		25.2%	25.2%		14.4														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.7
14-4	1.6%		14.0%	14.0%		15.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.4
13-5	2.8%		12.4%	12.4%		17.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	2.5
12-6	4.7%		7.3%	7.3%		17.0															0.0	0.2	0.2	4.3
11-7	6.4%		5.0%	5.0%		16.9															0.0	0.1	0.2	6.1
10-8	8.6%		4.0%	4.0%		18.1															0.0	0.1	0.3	8.3
9-9	10.7%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	10.5
8-10	11.8%		1.0%	1.0%		18.9																0.0	0.1	11.7
7-11	12.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	12.4
6-12	11.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.2
5-13	10.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
4-14	8.2%																							8.2
3-15	5.3%																							5.3
2-16	3.0%																							3.0
1-17	1.3%																							1.3
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		2.3%	2.3%	0.0%	16.6													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	97.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%