Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 283
Expected Predictive Rating -7.0 274
Pace 64.0 306
Improvement +2.1 102

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #103 B+ F+ C C+ B
Defense F+ #364 F F+ D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 62 65% 51 +5.7 22
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 313 38% 180 -2.6 303
Three Pointers 43% 140 37% 58 +3.1 81
1st FG Attempt 1.14 37 +6.1 37
Second Chance 19.2% 364 1.06 131 0.20 356
Turnovers 16.6% 165
Freethrows 0.30 200 78% 17 0.23 132
Total Offense +2.7 103

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 330 68% 364 +0.6 150
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 267 41% 277 +0.6 137
Three Pointers 51% 9 40% 360 -9.5 364
1st FG Attempt 1.18 363 -8.3 363
Second Chance 35.1% 327 1.16 332 0.41 350
Turnovers 15.3% 280
Freethrows 0.31 188 72% 137 0.22 178
Total Defense -9.7 364

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.2 37 -0.1 146
Shot Type Accuracy +4.7 49 +8.2 365
Possession Length 19.3 343 16.7 88
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 336 0.14 88
Improvement +2.7 #59 -0.6 #226

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1% 5% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 35% 70% 28%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 4% 3%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 411 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 36 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2% -18  6% 0 - 1 F -28 F -14 C+ F F F+ -10 D- A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 101 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 9% -11  1% 0 - 2 F -19 D+ -2 D+ C+ C F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 212 Wofford L 86 - 94 46% -8  12% 0 - 3 D- -14 B- +5 B+ D+ A F -19 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 82 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 7% -9  10% 0 - 4 C+ +3 B+ +9 A+ F F+ D -6 F F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 347 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 59% +5  71% 1 - 4 C+ +3 C +1 C+ F B+ B- +3 A F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 298 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 53% -1  40% 2 - 4 C- -3 B- +4 A F C D -6 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 6 112 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 11% -13  0% 2 - 5 D+ -7 D+ -3 A- F C- D+ -4 F A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 201 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 44% -6  15% 2 - 6 D -10 D+ -2 B+ F F D -7 F C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 282 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 61% -1  35% 3 - 6 B- +5 C +1 B+ F F+ B +4 A C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 24 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 2% -8  6% 3 - 7 B- +5 A+ +23 A+ A+ C- F -18 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 317 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 49% -10  0% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D -9 B+ +7 A- F A F -16 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 218 @Queens L 76 - 98 25% -10  5% 3 - 9 0 - 2 F -22 D- -6 B+ F F F -15 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 190 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 42% -0  50% 4 - 9 1 - 2 C +1 C +1 A- D B+ C -1 A+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 344 North Alabama L 73 - 82 78% -1  53% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -24 C +1 B D- B- F -26 F C- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 187 @Lipscomb L 71 - 81 22% -14  0% 4 - 11 1 - 4 D -9 C -0 F D+ A+ F+ -9 D- F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 267 @Eastern Kentucky L 69 - 89 35% -11  8% 4 - 12 1 - 5 F -23 D+ -4 F+ F+ B- F -21 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 308 @Jacksonville W 77 - 70 46% +1  51% 5 - 12 2 - 5 C +1 B+ +9 A D+ D D -7 D F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 345 @North Florida L 114 - 117 OT 59% -6  5% 5 - 13 2 - 6 D- -12 A+ +15 A+ D A F -27 F F F
 Wed, Jan 28 317 West Georgia W 77 - 74 71% +5  96% 6 - 13 3 - 6 D -10 B- +5 A- D+ A- F -14 F D- C
 Sat, Jan 31 218 Queens W 78 - 75 46% +0  48% 7 - 13 4 - 6 C- -3 C+ +2 C+ A- C- D+ -5 B- F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 333 Stetson W 92 - 71 75% +11  91% 8 - 13 5 - 6 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ C+ A F -12 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 243 Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 65 52% +6  79% 9 - 13 6 - 6 B +8 B- +5 A+ F B+ B +5 B+ B D+
 Wed, Feb 11 190 @Central Arkansas L 76 - 84 22% +2  58% 9 - 14 6 - 7 D+ -7 B +6 A+ D- F F -14 D- F+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 152 @Austin Peay L 73 - 83 17%
 Wed, Feb 18 187 Lipscomb L 78 - 80 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 267 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 79 57%
 Wed, Feb 25 344 @North Alabama W 77 - 75 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 152 Austin Peay L 76 - 80 35%
Totals 11 - 17 8 - 10 -7 C+ +3 B+ F+ C F+ -10 F F+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B+ C B B+ 43% 14% 43% B B+ F C+ F+ C C B+ C+ F+ F D+ F F 32% 18% 51% C F D- D- F+ D+ C C+ C
1.12 65% 38% 37% +5 +1 1.14 19% 1.1 .20 17% .30 78% .23 1.22 68% 41% 40% +8 0 1.18 35% 1.2 .41 15% .31 72% .22
Nov
3		 Georgia F C F D- C- 45% 2% 53% A+ C+ F F F F F A+ F F+ F+ F C+ D 52% 2% 46% F D- A+ D+ A- F B F C-
0.77 54% 0% 29% -7 +3 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 29% .11 83% .09 1.36 72% 100% 32% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 8% .30 90% .27
Nov
8		 Kansas St. D+ B+ F F D- 54% 10% 37% A+ D+ D+ A- C+ C C F+ C- F F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% F+ F F F F A+ F F+ F
1.00 64% 20% 16% -8 +3 0.90 31% 1.4 .42 18% .29 65% .19 1.38 74% 0% 57% +20 +2 1.45 50% 1.5 .77 25% .43 78% .34
Nov
15		 Wofford B- B+ A+ F+ B 57% 11% 31% A- B+ D+ C- D+ A A+ B A+ F F A+ F F 38% 4% 57% F+ F B A+ A+ B- F D F
1.22 65% 67% 29% +5 +3 1.17 28% 1.1 .31 11% .42 81% .34 1.33 67% 0% 59% +24 +2 1.53 24% 0.2 .04 17% .50 76% .38
Nov
19		 Notre Dame B+ A A+ C- A+ 36% 16% 49% B A+ F C F F+ A+ A A+ D F F D- F 35% 23% 42% C F D F F A- F D+ F
1.14 69% 86% 32% +10 0 1.22 8% 1.0 .08 19% .48 81% .39 1.24 80% 60% 39% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 20% .58 72% .41
Nov
24		 The Citadel C C+ F A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% C+ C+ F A+ F B+ C+ F D B- F+ A+ A+ A 38% 22% 40% C+ A F B- F B- D- C D-
1.16 65% 17% 45% +8 +1 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 12% .30 56% .17 0.97 65% 20% 17% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.8 .41 20% .33 69% .23
Nov
25		 Houston Christian B- A+ F A- A 45% 19% 36% C- A F F F C A+ A+ A+ D F A+ D D 32% 25% 43% B+ C- C F F F F A+ B-
1.21 89% 25% 40% +15 +1 1.33 6% 0.0 .00 18% .40 90% .36 1.13 71% 18% 37% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.7 .50 13% .45 38% .17
Dec
6		 Murray St. D+ B- A+ C+ B 60% 4% 36% A+ A- F D+ F C- C C+ C+ D+ F F F F 40% 13% 48% D+ F F+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A-
1.04 61% 50% 35% +3 +4 1.15 7% 1.0 .07 17% .29 75% .22 1.24 79% 50% 43% +17 +1 1.38 38% 0.6 .23 20% .21 91% .19
Dec
13		 Northern Kentucky D+ C+ A+ A B+ 45% 10% 45% B+ B+ F+ F F F F A+ C+ D F F+ D+ F 41% 17% 43% C F D+ B+ C+ D- C A+ A
1.08 59% 60% 41% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 26% .25 100% .25 1.14 73% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 32% 0.9 .30 14% .28 47% .13
Dec
17		 Chattanooga C B- F A B+ 39% 12% 49% B- B+ F+ F F F+ B A+ A B F D A+ A 7% 16% 77% A- A D- B+ C- F B- D- C+
1.17 63% 17% 42% +5 +1 1.14 24% 0.9 .21 18% .39 86% .34 0.94 100% 44% 23% -9 -2 0.81 24% 0.9 .22 10% .25 80% .20
Dec
23		 Kentucky A+ A+ D+ C+ A+ 39% 20% 41% B A+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F F D F F 15% 25% 60% A+ F D F+ F C+ F B- D-
1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.2 .41 18% .55 87% .47 1.48 86% 42% 55% +24 -2 1.46 39% 1.4 .54 15% .42 71% .30
Jan
1		 West Georgia B+ A A+ D A- 61% 11% 28% B+ A- F F+ F A A+ D A+ F D+ F C- F 13% 29% 59% B F F A+ C+ F D- F F
1.24 71% 60% 31% +9 +3 1.26 20% 0.8 .16 10% .55 68% .37 1.27 57% 56% 33% +5 -3 1.05 39% 0.8 .30 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
3		 Queens D- B F A+ B+ 50% 9% 41% A- B+ F C- F F A F+ B F F F F F 16% 2% 82% C- F D- F F C+ A- A+ A+
1.06 65% 0% 47% +9 +2 1.24 10% 1.0 .10 20% .43 68% .30 1.37 78% 100% 40% +12 +1 1.28 35% 1.3 .46 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
8		 Central Arkansas C A C+ B A- 34% 9% 57% B- A- F A+ D B+ D- C- D- C A A A A+ 25% 14% 61% C+ A+ D- F+ F F+ B- F C-
1.13 74% 40% 38% +9 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16 1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20
Jan
10		 North Alabama C A+ F B B 35% 10% 55% C B F A+ D- B- D+ F F+ F F A F F 37% 20% 44% B- F F A+ C- D- F F F
1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15 1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33
Jan
15		 Lipscomb C F A+ F F 32% 21% 47% C F C D- D+ A+ A+ D- A+ F+ D F C- D- 39% 9% 52% C- D- F B- F B- F A+ F
1.07 41% 55% 20% -12 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .27 9% .50 67% .33 1.22 65% 50% 35% +4 +1 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 18% .42 61% .26
Jan
17		 Eastern Kentucky D+ B- F F F 40% 12% 49% B+ F+ D- D- F+ B- A+ B+ A+ F F A+ F F 22% 13% 64% D- F F F F B- F D F
1.09 65% 20% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 14% .53 79% .42 1.40 80% 0% 45% +10 0 1.22 44% 1.8 .81 19% .41 76% .31
Jan
22		 Jacksonville B+ D B- A+ A- 56% 11% 33% A A D C+ D+ D F A+ D+ D C F B- D+ 43% 13% 43% F+ D A F F+ F D+ F F
1.23 56% 40% 60% +12 +2 1.31 25% 1.0 .25 18% .27 86% .23 1.12 55% 50% 30% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 13% .31 100% .31
Jan
24		 North Florida A+ A+ F A+ A 55% 9% 36% A- A+ F A+ D A C- A+ B- F F F F F 31% 9% 60% D+ F C- F F F F F F
1.44 76% 33% 42% +14 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22 1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28
Jan
28		 West Georgia B- A C C+ B+ 54% 10% 35% B A- D C D+ A- F A+ F+ F B- D F F 20% 38% 42% A- F D+ D- D- C A+ A+ A+
1.25 73% 40% 35% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .22 83% .18 1.20 50% 42% 52% +12 -4 1.18 32% 1.2 .39 16% .15 38% .06
Jan
31		 Queens C+ C+ A+ B B- 39% 22% 39% D+ C+ D+ A+ A- C- C- A+ B D+ C- C+ C C+ 25% 22% 53% A B- F+ F F D- B A+ A
1.23 61% 50% 39% +7 0 1.15 31% 1.5 .46 16% .34 89% .30 1.18 62% 36% 33% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.4 .50 13% .25 57% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Stetson A+ B+ C A+ A+ 44% 10% 46% B+ A+ D A+ C+ A F A+ F F F F D+ F 13% 18% 69% B F D F F C- C+ D+ C+
1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11 1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20
Feb
7		 Florida Gulf Coast B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% B- A+ F F F B+ D- A C- B C- D- A B 19% 32% 49% A B+ B- B+ B D+ C B+ B-
1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26 0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18
Feb
11		 Central Arkansas B B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 9% 61% C+ A+ F B D- F F A+ F+ F C+ D F D- 41% 10% 49% F+ D- D F+ F+ F F C+ F
1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14 1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.3 1.6 0.8 2.6 4th
5th 0.1 8.4 19.3 7.0 0.4 35.2 5th
6th 2.8 17.7 5.1 0.0 25.6 6th
7th 0.1 9.9 7.9 0.2 18.1 7th
8th 1.0 8.5 0.8 10.3 8th
9th 3.9 2.2 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 1.9 0.1 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 6.9 23.5 34.8 24.9 8.7 1.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.3% 7.1% 7.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
10-8 8.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.1 0.5 8.1
9-9 24.9% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 1.2 23.7
8-10 34.8% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 1.1 33.7
7-11 23.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 23.1
6-12 6.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 16.0 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 3.1%