Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#333
Expected Predictive Rating-16.4#355
Pace66.1#266
Improvement-2.2#314

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#259
First Shot+1.9#126
After Offensive Rebound-5.1#360
Layup/Dunks+1.6#128
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#117
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement-0.1#197

Defense
Total Defense-6.7#352
First Shot-5.8#344
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#245
Layups/Dunks-3.9#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#344
Freethrows+1.3#102
Improvement-2.1#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 1.3% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 12.5% 15.5% 9.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 24.5% 20.3% 28.2%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 46 - 107 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 3%     0 - 1 -6.4 +3.6 -10.9
  Nov 09, 2024 346   VMI L 71-76 70%     0 - 2 -20.3 -8.1 -12.3
  Nov 13, 2024 293   Southern Indiana L 69-71 50%     0 - 3 -11.8 -6.4 -5.4
  Nov 16, 2024 195   @ Marshall L 62-83 14%     0 - 4 -19.5 -10.0 -9.4
  Nov 19, 2024 43   @ Louisville L 68-100 2%     0 - 5 -18.0 -0.9 -15.5
  Nov 23, 2024 267   Bowling Green W 80-68 47%     1 - 5 +3.0 +5.0 -1.6
  Nov 30, 2024 216   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-86 17%     1 - 6 -15.7 +0.5 -16.6
  Dec 04, 2024 263   @ Western Carolina L 74-86 25%     1 - 7 -14.8 +0.5 -15.1
  Dec 14, 2024 270   Ball St. L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 19, 2024 177   @ Wyoming L 65-77 13%    
  Dec 21, 2024 85   @ Colorado L 62-81 4%    
  Jan 02, 2025 214   @ North Alabama L 68-78 17%    
  Jan 04, 2025 337   @ Central Arkansas L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 09, 2025 212   Jacksonville L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 182   North Florida L 76-82 30%    
  Jan 16, 2025 105   Lipscomb L 67-78 16%    
  Jan 18, 2025 207   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-80 17%    
  Jan 23, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 329   Stetson W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 30, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 01, 2025 105   @ Lipscomb L 64-81 6%    
  Feb 06, 2025 182   @ North Florida L 73-85 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 212   @ Jacksonville L 66-76 18%    
  Feb 13, 2025 290   Queens L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 349   West Georgia W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 238   Austin Peay L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 207   Eastern Kentucky L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 24, 2025 329   @ Stetson L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 62-74 15%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.7 1.5 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.4 2.7 5.4 2.7 0.3 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 15.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 4.6 7.9 4.4 0.7 0.0 18.7 10th
11th 0.3 1.8 5.9 7.2 3.9 0.6 0.0 19.8 11th
12th 0.7 2.6 4.7 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.6 12th
Total 0.7 2.9 6.6 11.2 14.5 16.1 14.8 12.1 8.8 6.1 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 59.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 17.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8
11-7 1.7% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6
10-8 3.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 3.4
9-9 6.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 6.0
8-10 8.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.7
7-11 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 14.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.7
5-13 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-14 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-15 11.2% 11.2
2-16 6.6% 6.6
1-17 2.9% 2.9
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%