Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 289
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 283
Pace 63.4 321
Improvement +1.3 135

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 98 B+ D- C+ C+ B+
Defense F 364 F F+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 53 B 64% 61 +5.4 25
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 310 C- 37% 207 -2.8 313
Three Pointers 43% 138 B 37% 54 +3.1 79
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.2 33 B +4.2 56
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 38
Second Chance F 19.5% 363 B- 1.11 64 D- 0.22 347
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 138
Freethrows C- 0.30 221 A- 79% 10 C+ 0.23 132
Total Offense B- +3.1 98

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 41% 297 B 8.6% 58
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 311 F 10.3% 354
Three Pointers A 97% 2 B 0.4% 60
Total C 57% 157 C+ 5.3% 148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 324 F 68% 362 -0.1 171
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 283 D+ 41% 282 -0.8 126
Three Pointers 50% 8 F 40% 365 +9.6 364
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 165 F +8.6 365
1st FG Attempt F 1.19 365
Second Chance D- 35.4% 339 D- 1.15 339 F+ 0.41 354
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 278
Freethrows C 0.31 211 C 73% 207 C- 0.23 213
Total Defense F -10.4 364

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 281 D- 6.4% 338
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 42% 350 C- 4.5% 194
Three Pointers D+ 87% 2 D+ 0.4% 60
Total D- 65% 346 D- 3.0% 348

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.4 349 16.7 88
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 348 0.15 101
Improvement +2.8 #54 -1.5 #273

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 27% 51% 11%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four2% 3% 2%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 411 - 811 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 37 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2% -18  6% 0 - 1 F -28 F -15 C F F F+ -9 D- A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 89 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 7% -11  1% 0 - 2 F -18 C- -1 C- C+ C+ F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 224 Wofford L 86 - 94 47% -8  12% 0 - 3 F+ -14 B- +4 B D+ A- F -18 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 84 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 6% -9  10% 0 - 4 C+ +3 B+ +9 A+ F D- D -6 F F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 347 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 59% +5  71% 1 - 4 C+ +2 C +1 C+ F B+ B- +3 A- F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 295 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 51% -1  40% 2 - 4 C- -3 B- +5 A F C- D- -7 D+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 119 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 11% -13  0% 2 - 5 D+ -7 D+ -3 A- F C- D -5 F A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 201 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 43% -6  15% 2 - 6 D -10 D+ -2 B+ F F D- -7 F C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 293 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 62% -1  35% 3 - 6 C+ +5 C +1 B+ F F+ B +4 A C F
 Tue, Dec 23 25 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 2% -8  6% 3 - 7 C+ +5 A+ +22 A+ A+ C- F -18 F F C
 Thu, Jan 1 317 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 48% -10  0% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D -9 B+ +8 A- F A F -16 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 208 @Queens L 76 - 98 23% -10  5% 3 - 9 0 - 2 F -22 D -6 B+ F F F -15 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 185 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 40% -0  50% 4 - 9 1 - 2 C +1 C+ +2 A- D B+ C -1 A+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 339 North Alabama L 73 - 82 77% -1  53% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -24 C +1 B D C+ F -27 F C- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 194 @Lipscomb L 71 - 81 21% -14  0% 4 - 11 1 - 4 D -9 C +0 F D+ A+ F -10 D- F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 272 @Eastern Kentucky L 69 - 89 36% -11  8% 4 - 12 1 - 5 F -24 D+ -4 F+ F+ B- F -22 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 312 @Jacksonville W 77 - 70 45% +1  51% 5 - 12 2 - 5 C +1 A- +10 A D+ D D- -8 D D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 343 @North Florida L 114 - 117 OT 58% -6  5% 5 - 13 2 - 6 D- -12 A+ +15 A+ D A F -27 F F F
 Wed, Jan 28 317 West Georgia W 77 - 74 71% +5  96% 6 - 13 3 - 6 D -10 B- +5 A- D+ A- F -15 F D- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 208 Queens W 78 - 75 44% +0  48% 7 - 13 4 - 6 C- -3 C+ +3 B- A- C- D -5 B F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 327 Stetson W 92 - 71 72% +11  91% 8 - 13 5 - 6 B- +8 A+ +22 A+ C+ A F -11 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 65 53% +6  79% 9 - 13 6 - 6 B +8 B- +4 A+ F B+ B +4 B+ B D+
 Wed, Feb 11 185 @Central Arkansas L 76 - 84 20% +2  58% 9 - 14 6 - 7 D+ -7 B +7 A+ D- F F -14 D- F+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 148 @Austin Peay L 70 - 90 16% -15  0% 9 - 15 6 - 8 F+ -17 B+ +8 C A A+ F -28 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 194 Lipscomb L 79 - 81 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 272 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 79 58%
 Wed, Feb 25 339 @North Alabama W 77 - 75 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 148 Austin Peay L 76 - 81 33%
Totals 11 - 17 8 - 10 -7 B- +3 A+ B B+ F -10 B A- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B C- B B 43% 26% 43% B+ B+ F B- D- C+ C- A- C+ F F D+ F F 32% 17% 50% C F D- D- F+ D+ C C C-
1.13 64% 37% 37% +4 +1 1.13 19% 1.1 .22 16% .30 79% .23 1.24 68% 41% 40% +9 0 1.19 35% 1.2 .41 15% .31 73% .21
Nov
3		 Georgia F C F F+ D+ 45% 2% 53% A+ C F F F F F A+ F F+ F+ F C+ D 52% 2% 46% F D- A+ C- A- F B- F D+
0.77 54% 0% 29% -7 +3 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 29% .11 83% .09 1.36 72% 100% 32% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 8% .30 90% .27
Nov
8		 Kansas St. C- B+ F F D- 54% 10% 37% A+ C- C- A- C+ C+ C F+ D+ F F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ F F+ F
1.00 64% 20% 16% -8 +3 0.90 31% 1.4 .42 18% .29 65% .19 1.38 74% 0% 57% +20 +2 1.45 50% 1.5 .77 25% .43 78% .34
Nov
15		 Wofford B- B+ A+ F+ B- 57% 11% 31% A- B C- C- D+ A- A+ B A+ F F A+ F F 38% 4% 57% F+ F B+ A+ A+ B- F D F
1.22 65% 67% 29% +5 +3 1.17 28% 1.1 .31 11% .42 81% .34 1.33 67% 0% 59% +24 +2 1.53 24% 0.2 .04 17% .50 76% .38
Nov
19		 Notre Dame B+ A A+ C- A+ 36% 16% 49% B A+ F C- F D- A+ A- A+ D F F D- F 35% 23% 42% C F D F F A- F C- F
1.14 69% 86% 32% +10 0 1.22 8% 1.0 .08 19% .48 81% .39 1.24 80% 60% 39% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 20% .58 72% .41
Nov
24		 The Citadel C C+ F A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% C+ C+ F A+ F B+ C+ F D B- F+ A+ A+ A 38% 22% 40% C A- F B F B- D- C D-
1.16 65% 17% 45% +7 +1 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 12% .30 56% .17 0.97 65% 20% 17% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.8 .41 20% .33 69% .23
Nov
25		 Houston Christian B- A+ F A- A+ 45% 19% 36% C- A F F F C- A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D D 32% 25% 43% B+ D+ C- F F F F A+ B-
1.21 89% 25% 40% +15 +1 1.33 6% 0.0 .00 18% .40 90% .36 1.13 71% 18% 37% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.7 .50 13% .45 38% .17
Dec
6		 Murray St. D+ B A+ C+ B 60% 4% 36% A+ A- F C- F C- C C+ C D F F F F 40% 13% 48% D F F+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A-
1.04 61% 50% 35% +3 +4 1.15 7% 1.0 .07 17% .29 75% .22 1.24 79% 50% 43% +17 +1 1.38 38% 0.6 .23 20% .21 91% .19
Dec
13		 Northern Kentucky D+ C+ A+ A B+ 45% 10% 45% B+ B+ F+ F F F F A+ C+ D- F F+ D+ F 41% 17% 43% C F D+ B+ C+ D- C+ A+ A
1.08 59% 60% 41% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 26% .25 100% .25 1.14 73% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 32% 0.9 .30 14% .28 47% .13
Dec
17		 Chattanooga C B F A B+ 39% 12% 49% B- B+ F+ F F F+ B A+ A+ B F D A+ A 7% 16% 77% A- A D- A- C F B- D- C
1.17 63% 17% 42% +5 +1 1.14 24% 0.9 .21 18% .39 86% .34 0.94 100% 44% 23% -9 -2 0.81 24% 0.9 .22 10% .25 80% .20
Dec
23		 Kentucky A+ A+ D+ C A+ 39% 20% 41% B A+ B+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F F D F F 15% 25% 60% A+ F D+ F F C F C+ D-
1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.2 .41 18% .55 87% .47 1.48 86% 42% 55% +24 -2 1.46 39% 1.4 .54 15% .42 71% .30
Jan
1		 West Georgia B+ A A+ D A- 61% 11% 28% B+ A- F F+ F A A+ D- A+ F D+ F C- F 13% 29% 59% B F F A+ C+ F F+ F F
1.24 71% 60% 31% +9 +3 1.26 20% 0.8 .16 10% .55 68% .37 1.27 57% 56% 33% +5 -3 1.05 39% 0.8 .30 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
3		 Queens D B F A+ B+ 50% 9% 41% A- B+ F C- F F A D- B F F F F F 16% 2% 82% C- F D- F F C+ A A+ A+
1.06 65% 0% 47% +9 +2 1.24 10% 1.0 .10 20% .43 68% .30 1.37 78% 100% 40% +12 +1 1.28 35% 1.3 .46 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
8		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ C+ B A- 34% 9% 57% B- A- F A+ D B+ D- C D- C A A A A+ 25% 14% 61% C+ A+ D- F+ F F+ B- F C-
1.13 74% 40% 38% +9 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16 1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20
Jan
10		 North Alabama C A+ F B B+ 35% 10% 55% C B F A+ D C+ D+ F F+ F F A F F 37% 20% 44% B- F F A+ C- D- F F F
1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15 1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33
Jan
15		 Lipscomb C F A+ F F 32% 21% 47% C F C+ F+ D+ A+ A+ D- A+ F D F C- D- 39% 9% 52% C- D- F B- F B- F A+ F
1.07 41% 55% 20% -12 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .27 9% .50 67% .33 1.22 65% 50% 35% +4 +2 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 18% .42 61% .26
Jan
17		 Eastern Kentucky D+ B- F F F 40% 12% 49% B+ F+ D- D F+ B- A+ B+ A+ F F A+ F F 22% 13% 64% D F F F F B- F D- F
1.09 65% 20% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 14% .53 79% .42 1.40 80% 0% 45% +10 0 1.22 44% 1.8 .81 19% .41 76% .31
Jan
22		 Jacksonville A- D C+ A+ A 56% 11% 33% A A D C+ D+ D F A+ D+ D- C F B- D+ 43% 13% 43% F+ D A F D- F D F F
1.23 56% 40% 60% +12 +2 1.31 25% 1.0 .25 18% .27 86% .23 1.12 55% 50% 30% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 13% .31 100% .31
Jan
24		 North Florida A+ A+ F A A+ 55% 9% 36% A A+ F A+ D A C A+ B- F F F F F 31% 9% 60% C- F C- F F F F F F
1.44 76% 33% 42% +13 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22 1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28
Jan
28		 West Georgia B- A C C+ A- 54% 10% 35% B A- D C+ D+ A- F A+ F+ F B- D F F 20% 38% 42% A- F D+ F+ D- C- A+ A+ A+
1.25 73% 40% 35% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .22 83% .18 1.20 50% 42% 52% +12 -4 1.18 32% 1.2 .39 16% .15 38% .06
Jan
31		 Queens C+ C+ A+ B B- 39% 22% 39% D+ B- D+ A+ A- C- C- A+ B+ D C- C+ C+ B- 25% 22% 53% A B F+ F F D- B A+ A
1.23 61% 50% 39% +7 0 1.15 31% 1.5 .46 16% .34 89% .30 1.18 62% 36% 33% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.4 .50 13% .25 57% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Stetson A+ B+ C A+ A+ 44% 10% 46% B+ A+ D A+ C+ A F A+ F F F F D+ F 13% 18% 69% B F D F F C- C+ D+ C
1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11 1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20
Feb
7		 Florida Gulf Coast B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% C+ A+ F F F B+ D A C- B C- F+ A B 19% 32% 49% A B+ B- B+ B D+ C B+ C+
1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26 0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18
Feb
11		 Central Arkansas B B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 9% 61% C+ A+ F B D- F F A+ F+ F C+ D F D- 41% 10% 49% F+ D- D F+ F+ F F C+ F
1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14 1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26
Feb
14		 Austin Peay B+ F F A+ D+ 55% 8% 37% A+ C D A+ A A+ F+ A+ C F D- F F F 50% 9% 41% F F F F+ F C F F F
1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20 1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.3 1.2 1.4 4th
5th 0.5 13.0 18.1 4.0 35.7 5th
6th 5.8 19.6 3.5 28.9 6th
7th 0.2 12.8 3.8 0.1 16.8 7th
8th 1.8 7.3 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 4.4 1.4 5.8 9th
10th 2.0 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 8.5 27.8 36.5 21.9 5.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 5.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.0
9-9 21.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.9 21.0
8-10 36.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 1.0 35.5
7-11 27.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.4 27.4
6-12 8.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 16.0 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.8 21.6 78.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 3.4%