Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -7.8 292
Results Rating -8.9 309
Consistency 0.15 159
Pace 62.6 332
Improvement +0.0 187

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 91 B+ D- C+ C+ B+
Defense F 365 F F+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 39 B 64% 52 +6.0 17
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 315 D+ 36% 254 -3.3 328
Three Pointers 43% 139 B 37% 70 +2.8 87
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 27 B +4.0 60
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 39
Second Chance F 20.3% 361 B 1.13 52 D- 0.23 342
Turnovers from Steals C+ 8.9% 128
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 166
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 133
Freethrows C- 0.29 222 A- 79% 8 C+ 0.23 131
Total Offense B- +3.6 91

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 38% 327 B- 9.1% 80
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 283 F+ 9.4% 352
Three Pointers A 97% 2 B 0.4% 53
Total C 55% 192 C+ 5.4% 161

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 329 F 68% 361 -0.6 152
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 299 D+ 41% 280 -1.0 113
Three Pointers 51% 6 F 42% 365 +11.0 364
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 172 F +9.1 365
1st FG Attempt F 1.21 365
Second Chance D- 35.3% 337 D- 1.15 331 F+ 0.41 352
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.7% 237
Other Turnovers D+ 6.7% 258
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 262
Freethrows C- 0.32 235 D+ 74% 263 C- 0.24 245
Total Defense F -11.3 365

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 300 D- 6.3% 340
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 40% 346 C- 3.9% 234
Three Pointers D+ 87% 279 D 0.3% 307
Total F+ 66% 351 F+ 2.9% 351

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 353 16.9 105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 345 0.15 96
Consistency 0.12 141 0.14 290
Improvement +2.8 63 -2.7 311

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 309 295 278
Results Rating Rank 323 305 283
Conference Record 6 - 12 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 10 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 49 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 29 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2% -18  6% 0 - 1 F -27 F -16 C F F D- -8 D- A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 97 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 7% -11  1% 0 - 2 F -18 C- -1 D+ B- C+ F -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 231 Wofford L 86 - 94 47% -8  12% 0 - 3 F+ -15 B- +4 B C- A- F -19 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 19 93 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 7% -9  10% 0 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +8 A+ F D- D -6 F F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 349 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 60% +5  71% 1 - 4 C +2 C +1 C+ F A- B- +2 A- F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 296 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 51% -1  40% 2 - 4 C- -3 B +6 A F C- D- -8 D+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 123 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 11% -13  0% 2 - 5 D+ -7 D+ -3 A- F C- D -5 F A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 191 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 39% -6  15% 2 - 6 D -9 C- -1 A- F F D- -8 F C D-
 Wed, Dec 17 276 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 57% -1  35% 3 - 6 B- +6 C +1 B+ F F B+ +5 A+ C F
 Tue, Dec 23 23 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 2% -8  6% 3 - 7 C+ +5 A+ +23 A+ A+ C- F -19 F F C
 Thu, Jan 1 312 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 43% -10  0% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D+ -8 B+ +8 A F A F -16 F C F
 Sat, Jan 3 203 @Queens L 76 - 98 21% -10  5% 3 - 9 0 - 2 F -21 D -6 B+ F F F -15 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 177 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 36% -0  50% 4 - 9 1 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 B+ D B+ C+ +0 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 341 North Alabama L 73 - 82 76% -1  53% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -24 C +1 B D B- F -27 F C- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 199 @Lipscomb L 71 - 81 21% -14  0% 4 - 11 1 - 4 D -9 C +0 F C- A+ F -10 D F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 286 @Eastern Kentucky L 69 - 89 36% -11  8% 4 - 12 1 - 5 F -24 D -5 F D- B- F -22 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 307 @Jacksonville W 77 - 70 42% +1  51% 5 - 12 2 - 5 C +1 B+ +9 A D+ D- D- -7 D+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 338 @North Florida L 114 - 117 OT 55% -6  5% 5 - 13 2 - 6 D- -12 A+ +16 A+ D A F -28 F F F
 Wed, Jan 28 312 West Georgia W 77 - 74 66% +5  96% 6 - 13 3 - 6 D -9 B +6 A- D+ B+ F -14 F D- C
 Sat, Jan 31 203 Queens W 78 - 75 41% +0  48% 7 - 13 4 - 6 C- -2 C+ +2 C+ A- C- D+ -5 B F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 326 Stetson W 92 - 71 71% +11  91% 8 - 13 5 - 6 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ C+ A F -11 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 65 51% +6  79% 9 - 13 6 - 6 B- +8 B- +4 A+ F B+ B +5 B+ B+ C-
 Wed, Feb 11 177 @Central Arkansas L 76 - 84 18% +2  58% 9 - 14 6 - 7 D+ -6 B +6 A+ D- F F -13 D- D- F
 Sat, Feb 14 167 @Austin Peay L 70 - 90 17% -15  0% 9 - 15 6 - 8 F+ -17 B +7 C A A+ F -28 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 199 Lipscomb L 72 - 75 40% -1  37% 9 - 16 6 - 9 D -8 C +1 C D+ A+ F -10 F A C+
 Sat, Feb 21 286 Eastern Kentucky L 92 - 95 59% -6  14% 9 - 17 6 - 10 D- -13 A+ +17 A+ B- D+ F -31 F C- F
 Wed, Feb 25 341 @North Alabama L 68 - 73 55% -3  13% 9 - 18 6 - 11 D- -14 C +1 F+ B- C+ F -16 F F A-
 Sat, Feb 28 167 Austin Peay L 77 - 81 34%
Totals 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8 B- +4 A B B+ F -11 B A- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B D+ B B 44% 25% 43% B+ B+ F B D- C+ C- A- C+ F F D+ F F 32% 17% 51% C F D- D- F+ D+ C- D+ C-
1.14 64% 36% 37% +4 +1 1.13 20% 1.1 .23 16% .29 79% .23 1.25 68% 41% 42% +9 0 1.21 35% 1.1 .41 15% .32 74% .22
Nov
3		 Georgia F C F F+ D 45% 2% 53% A+ C F F F F F A+ F D- F+ F B- D 52% 2% 46% F D- A+ C- A- F B- F D+
0.77 54% 0% 29% -7 +3 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 29% .11 83% .09 1.36 72% 100% 32% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 8% .30 90% .27
Nov
8		 Kansas St. C- A- F F D- 54% 10% 37% A+ D+ C- A- B- C+ C F+ D+ F F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ F F+ F
1.00 64% 20% 16% -8 +3 0.90 31% 1.4 .42 18% .29 65% .19 1.38 74% 0% 57% +20 +2 1.45 50% 1.5 .77 25% .43 78% .34
Nov
15		 Wofford B- B+ A+ F+ B- 57% 11% 31% A- B C- C- C- A- A+ B A+ F F A+ F F 38% 4% 57% F+ F B A+ A+ B F D F
1.22 65% 67% 29% +5 +3 1.17 28% 1.1 .31 11% .42 81% .34 1.33 67% 0% 59% +23 +2 1.53 24% 0.2 .04 17% .50 76% .38
Nov
19		 Notre Dame B+ A A+ C- A+ 36% 16% 49% B A+ F C F D- A+ A- A+ D F F D- F 35% 23% 42% C F D F F A- F D+ F
1.14 69% 86% 32% +10 0 1.22 8% 1.0 .08 19% .48 81% .39 1.24 80% 60% 39% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 20% .58 72% .41
Nov
24		 The Citadel C B- F A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% C+ C+ F A+ F A- C+ F D B- F+ A+ A+ A 38% 22% 40% C+ A- F B F B- F+ D+ F+
1.16 65% 17% 45% +7 +1 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 12% .30 56% .17 0.97 65% 20% 17% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.8 .41 20% .33 69% .23
Nov
25		 Houston Christian B A+ F A- A+ 45% 19% 36% C A F F F C- A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D D- 32% 25% 43% B D+ C F F F F A+ B-
1.21 89% 25% 40% +15 +1 1.33 6% 0.0 .00 18% .40 90% .36 1.13 71% 18% 37% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.7 .50 13% .45 38% .17
Dec
6		 Murray St. D+ B A+ C+ B 60% 4% 36% A+ A- F C- F C- C B- C+ D F F F F 40% 13% 48% D F F+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A
1.04 61% 50% 35% +3 +4 1.15 7% 1.0 .07 17% .29 75% .22 1.24 79% 50% 43% +17 +1 1.38 38% 0.6 .23 20% .21 91% .19
Dec
13		 Northern Kentucky C- C+ A+ A A- 45% 10% 45% B+ A- D- F F F F A+ C+ D- F F+ D+ F 41% 17% 43% C F D+ B+ C D- C+ A+ A
1.08 59% 60% 41% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 26% .25 100% .25 1.14 73% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 32% 0.9 .30 14% .28 47% .13
Dec
17		 Chattanooga C B F A B 39% 12% 49% B- B+ F+ F F F B A+ A+ B+ F D A+ A+ 7% 16% 77% A- A+ D A C F B- D C+
1.17 63% 17% 42% +5 +1 1.14 24% 0.9 .21 18% .39 86% .34 0.94 100% 44% 23% -9 -2 0.81 24% 0.9 .22 10% .25 80% .20
Dec
23		 Kentucky A+ A+ D+ C+ A+ 39% 20% 41% B A+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F F D F F 15% 25% 60% A+ F D+ F F C F C+ F+
1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.2 .41 18% .55 87% .47 1.48 86% 42% 55% +24 -2 1.46 39% 1.4 .54 15% .42 71% .30
Jan
1		 West Georgia B+ A A+ D A- 61% 11% 28% A- A F F F A A+ D A+ F C- F C- F 13% 29% 59% B F F A+ C F F+ F F
1.24 71% 60% 31% +9 +3 1.26 20% 0.8 .16 10% .55 68% .37 1.27 57% 56% 33% +5 -3 1.05 39% 0.8 .30 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
3		 Queens D B F A+ B+ 50% 9% 41% A- B+ F D+ F F A D- B+ F F F F F 16% 2% 82% C- F F+ F F B- A+ A+ A+
1.06 65% 0% 47% +9 +2 1.24 10% 1.0 .10 20% .43 68% .30 1.37 78% 100% 40% +12 +1 1.28 35% 1.3 .46 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
8		 Central Arkansas C A B- B B+ 34% 9% 57% C+ B+ F A+ D B+ D- C- D C+ A A A A+ 25% 14% 61% C+ A+ D- D- F+ F+ B- F C-
1.13 74% 40% 38% +8 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16 1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20
Jan
10		 North Alabama C A+ F B B 35% 10% 55% C B F A+ D B- D F F F F A F F 37% 20% 44% B- F F A+ C- D- F F F
1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15 1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33
Jan
15		 Lipscomb C F A+ F F 32% 21% 47% C F C+ D- C- A+ A+ D A+ F D F C- D- 39% 9% 52% C- D F C F B- F A+ F
1.07 41% 55% 20% -12 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .27 9% .50 67% .33 1.22 65% 50% 35% +4 +2 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 18% .42 61% .26
Jan
17		 Eastern Kentucky D B- F F F 40% 12% 49% B+ F D- D D- B- A+ B+ A+ F F A+ F F 22% 13% 64% D- F F F F B- F D- F
1.09 65% 20% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 14% .53 79% .42 1.40 80% 0% 45% +10 0 1.22 44% 1.8 .81 19% .41 76% .31
Jan
22		 Jacksonville B+ D B- A+ A 56% 11% 33% A A D- C+ D+ D- F A+ D+ D- C+ F B- D+ 43% 13% 43% F+ D+ A F D- F D+ F F
1.23 56% 40% 60% +12 +2 1.31 25% 1.0 .25 18% .27 86% .23 1.12 55% 50% 30% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 13% .31 100% .31
Jan
24		 North Florida A+ A+ F A+ A+ 55% 9% 36% A- A+ F A+ D A C- A+ B- F F F F F 31% 9% 60% D+ F C F F F F F F
1.44 76% 33% 42% +13 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22 1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28
Jan
28		 West Georgia B A C C+ A- 54% 10% 35% B A- D C D+ B+ F A+ F+ F B D+ F F 20% 38% 42% A F D+ F+ D- C A+ A+ A+
1.25 73% 40% 35% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .22 83% .18 1.20 50% 42% 52% +12 -4 1.18 32% 1.2 .39 16% .15 38% .06
Jan
31		 Queens C+ C+ A B B- 39% 22% 39% D+ C+ D+ A+ A- C- C- A+ B+ D+ C C+ C+ B- 25% 22% 53% A B F F F D- A- A+ A+
1.23 61% 50% 39% +7 0 1.15 31% 1.5 .46 16% .34 89% .30 1.18 62% 36% 33% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.4 .50 13% .25 57% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Stetson A+ B+ C A+ A+ 44% 10% 46% B+ A+ D- A+ C+ A F A+ F F F F D+ F 13% 18% 69% B F D+ F F C- C D+ C
1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11 1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20
Feb
7		 Florida Gulf Coast B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% B- A+ F F F B+ D A C- B C- F+ A B 19% 32% 49% A B+ B- B+ B+ C- C B+ C+
1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26 0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18
Feb
11		 Central Arkansas B B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 9% 61% C+ A+ F B D- F F A+ F+ F C+ D F D- 41% 10% 49% F+ D- D D- D- F F B- F
1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14 1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26
Feb
14		 Austin Peay B F F A+ D+ 55% 8% 37% A C D A+ A A+ F A+ C- F D- F F F 50% 9% 41% F F F F F C F F F
1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20 1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48
Feb
18		 Lipscomb C B F D+ C- 44% 15% 41% A- C D C D+ A+ F F+ F F F A+ F F 24% 6% 69% C+ F A A A C+ B F C
1.13 67% 25% 32% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 11% .19 64% .12 1.17 75% 0% 44% +12 +1 1.29 17% 0.8 .14 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
21		 Eastern Kentucky A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 47% 4% 49% A+ A+ F+ A+ B- D+ C- A+ B F B B F F 13% 13% 74% D+ F B F C- F F F F
1.44 86% 50% 50% +25 +3 1.58 25% 1.5 .38 17% .32 88% .28 1.49 50% 33% 54% +21 -1 1.43 28% 1.3 .36 13% .43 79% .34
Feb
25		 North Alabama C C+ F F F 67% 2% 31% A+ F+ C- A B- C+ A+ A A+ F C+ F F+ F 48% 13% 40% D- F F D+ F A- F D- F
1.16 61% 0% 15% -8 +4 0.95 33% 1.3 .44 14% .45 83% .37 1.24 53% 60% 38% +2 +2 1.10 57% 1.1 .63 22% .63 72% .46



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 5.0 5.0 6th
7th 16.3 16.3 7th
8th 13.0 11.2 24.2 8th
9th 44.0 1.4 45.4 9th
10th 9.1 9.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 66.1 33.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 33.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.6 33.3
6-12 66.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.9 65.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.8%
Lose Out 25.5%