Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.1 283
Results Rating -7.8 293
Consistency 0.15 173
Pace 63.3 317
Improvement +1.6 134

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 76 B+ D C+ C+ B+
Defense F 365 F F+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 36 B 64% 60 +6.0 16
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 312 C- 37% 225 -3.1 321
Three Pointers 43% 148 B 37% 53 +2.9 83
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 28 B +4.1 63
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 42
Second Chance F 20.9% 358 B+ 1.18 26 D 0.25 320
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 117
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 173
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 129
Freethrows C- 0.30 214 A 79% 5 C+ 0.23 122
Total Offense B- +4.6 76

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 38% 319 B- 9.6% 110
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 244 F 9.2% 351
Three Pointers A 97% 2 B 0.4% 56
Total C 55% 186 C 5.6% 201


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 325 F+ 67% 359 -0.5 153
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 274 D+ 41% 280 -0.7 133
Three Pointers 50% 9 F 42% 365 +10.4 364
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 157 F +9.0 365
1st FG Attempt F 1.20 365
Second Chance D- 35.3% 338 D- 1.15 325 F+ 0.40 349
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 249
Other Turnovers D+ 6.7% 261
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 271
Freethrows C- 0.32 224 D+ 74% 270 C- 0.23 247
Total Defense F -11.7 365

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 304 D- 6.4% 343
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 39% 341 C 4.5% 198
Three Pointers D+ 87% 271 D+ 0.4% 291
Total F+ 66% 351 D- 3.0% 347

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 352 16.8 75
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 343 0.15 120
Consistency 0.12 134 0.14 271
Improvement +4.2 24 -2.6 300

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 284 283 282
Results Rating Rank 294 292 290
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 50 - 10
Quad 411 - 911 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2% -18  6% 0 - 1 F -26 F -16 C F F D- -6 D A F
 Sat, Nov 8 98 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 8% -11  1% 0 - 2 F -18 C- -1 D+ B- C+ F -17 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 245 Wofford L 86 - 94 53% -8  12% 0 - 3 F+ -16 C+ +4 B C- A- F -19 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 19 90 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 7% -9  10% 0 - 4 C+ +2 B +7 A+ F F+ D -5 F F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 338 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 59% +5  71% 1 - 4 C+ +3 C +0 C+ F A- B +4 A F B
 Tue, Nov 25 291 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 51% -1  40% 2 - 4 C- -2 B +7 A+ F C F+ -8 D F F
 Sat, Dec 6 129 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 13% -13  0% 2 - 5 D+ -8 D+ -3 B+ F C- D -5 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 177 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 38% -6  15% 2 - 6 D+ -8 C- -2 A- F F D -6 F C+ D
 Wed, Dec 17 293 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 63% -1  35% 3 - 6 C+ +4 C- -1 B F F B+ +6 A+ C F
 Tue, Dec 23 24 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 2% -8  6% 3 - 7 B- +5 A+ +22 A+ A+ C- F -18 F F C
 Thu, Jan 1 301 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 44% -10  0% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D+ -8 B+ +9 A F A F -17 F C F
 Sat, Jan 3 191 @Queens L 76 - 98 21% -10  5% 3 - 9 0 - 2 F -21 D -5 A- F F F -15 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 168 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 36% -0  50% 4 - 9 1 - 2 C+ +3 C+ +2 A- D B+ C+ +0 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 342 North Alabama L 73 - 82 79% -1  53% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -25 C+ +2 B D B- F -28 F C- F+
 Thu, Jan 15 215 @Lipscomb L 71 - 81 25% -14  0% 4 - 11 1 - 4 D -10 C -0 F C- A+ F -11 D- F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 298 @Eastern Kentucky L 69 - 89 42% -11  8% 4 - 12 1 - 5 F -25 D -6 F F+ C+ F -21 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 296 @Jacksonville W 77 - 70 41% +1  51% 5 - 12 2 - 5 C+ +2 B+ +9 A C- D- D -6 D D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 341 @North Florida L 114 - 117 OT 59% -6  5% 5 - 13 2 - 6 D- -12 A+ +16 A+ D A F -28 F F F
 Wed, Jan 28 301 West Georgia W 77 - 74 67% +5  96% 6 - 13 3 - 6 D -9 B +7 A D+ B+ F -15 F F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 191 Queens W 78 - 75 41% +0  48% 7 - 13 4 - 6 C- -2 C+ +3 B- A- C- D+ -5 B F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 310 Stetson W 92 - 71 69% +11  91% 8 - 13 5 - 6 B +9 A+ +22 A+ B- A F -10 F+ F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 252 Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 65 54% +6  79% 9 - 13 6 - 6 B- +8 B- +5 A+ F B+ B- +3 B B C
 Wed, Feb 11 168 @Central Arkansas L 76 - 84 18% +2  58% 9 - 14 6 - 7 D+ -5 B +7 A+ F+ F F -13 D- D- F
 Sat, Feb 14 181 @Austin Peay L 70 - 90 20% -15  0% 9 - 15 6 - 8 F -18 B +7 C- A A+ F -28 F F C
 Wed, Feb 18 215 Lipscomb L 72 - 75 46% -1  37% 9 - 16 6 - 9 D -9 C +1 C D+ A+ F -10 F A C+
 Sat, Feb 21 298 Eastern Kentucky L 92 - 95 65% -6  14% 9 - 17 6 - 10 D- -14 A+ +16 A+ C+ D F -30 F C- F
 Wed, Feb 25 342 @North Alabama L 68 - 73 60% -3  13% 9 - 18 6 - 11 D- -15 C +1 F+ B- C+ F -16 F F A-
 Sat, Feb 28 181 Austin Peay W 111 - 97 39% +4  85% 10 - 18 7 - 11 B +10 A+ +17 A+ A+ A F+ -9 D+ F D
 Wed, Mar 4 296 Jacksonville W 82 - 79 53% +5  72% 11 - 18 C- -5 A- +11 B+ F+ A- F -15 F+ C+ F
 Fri, Mar 6 168 Central Arkansas L 73 - 86 26% -14  3% 11 - 19 D- -13 B- +5 B- A+ C F -20 F F B-
Totals 11 - 19 7 - 11 -7 B- +5 F B B+ F -12 B A C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B C- B B 44% 26% 43% B+ B+ F B+ D C+ C- A C+ F F+ D+ F F 33% 18% 50% C F D- D- F+ D+ C- D+ C-
1.15 64% 37% 37% +4 +1 1.14 21% 1.2 .25 16% .30 79% .23 1.25 67% 41% 42% +9 0 1.20 35% 1.1 .40 15% .32 74% .22
Nov
3		 Georgia F C- F F+ D 45% 2% 53% A+ C F F F F F A+ F D- F+ F B- D+ 52% 2% 46% F D A+ C A F B- F D+
0.77 54% 0% 29% -7 +3 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 29% .11 83% .09 1.36 72% 100% 32% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 8% .30 90% .27
Nov
8		 Kansas St. C- B+ F F D- 54% 10% 37% A+ D+ C- A B- C+ C F+ C- F F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% F+ F F F F A+ F F+ F
1.00 64% 20% 16% -8 +3 0.90 31% 1.4 .42 18% .29 65% .19 1.38 74% 0% 57% +20 +2 1.45 50% 1.5 .77 25% .43 78% .34
Nov
15		 Wofford C+ B+ A+ F B- 57% 11% 31% A- B C- C- C- A- A+ B A+ F F A+ F F 38% 4% 57% F+ F B A+ A+ B F D- F
1.22 65% 67% 29% +5 +3 1.17 28% 1.1 .31 11% .42 81% .34 1.33 67% 0% 59% +23 +2 1.53 24% 0.2 .04 17% .50 76% .38
Nov
19		 Notre Dame B A A+ C- A+ 36% 16% 49% B A+ F C F F+ A+ A- A+ D F F D- F 35% 23% 42% C F D F F A- F C- F
1.14 69% 86% 32% +10 0 1.22 8% 1.0 .08 19% .48 81% .39 1.24 80% 60% 39% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 20% .58 72% .41
Nov
24		 The Citadel C B- F A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% C+ C+ F A+ F A- C+ F D+ B F+ A+ A+ A 38% 22% 40% C+ A F B+ F B F+ D+ F+
1.16 65% 17% 45% +7 +1 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 12% .30 56% .17 0.97 65% 20% 17% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.8 .41 20% .33 69% .23
Nov
25		 Houston Christian B A+ F A- A+ 45% 19% 36% C A+ F F F C A+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ D- D- 32% 25% 43% B D C- F F F F A+ B-
1.21 89% 25% 40% +15 +1 1.33 6% 0.0 .00 18% .40 90% .36 1.13 71% 18% 37% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.7 .50 13% .45 38% .17
Dec
6		 Murray St. D+ B- A C+ B- 60% 4% 36% A+ B+ F C- F C- C B- C D F F F F 40% 13% 48% D F F+ A+ A+ A A+ F A
1.04 61% 50% 35% +3 +4 1.15 7% 1.0 .07 17% .29 75% .22 1.24 79% 50% 43% +17 +1 1.38 38% 0.6 .23 20% .21 91% .19
Dec
13		 Northern Kentucky C- C A+ A A- 45% 10% 45% B+ A- D- F F F F A+ C+ D F F D+ F 41% 17% 43% C+ F D+ A- C+ D C+ A+ A
1.08 59% 60% 41% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 26% .25 100% .25 1.14 73% 44% 35% +8 +1 1.19 32% 0.9 .30 14% .28 47% .13
Dec
17		 Chattanooga C- B F A B 39% 12% 49% B- B F+ F F F B+ A+ A+ B+ F D A+ A+ 7% 16% 77% B+ A+ D A C F C+ D C
1.17 63% 17% 42% +5 +1 1.14 24% 0.9 .21 18% .39 86% .34 0.94 100% 44% 23% -9 -2 0.81 24% 0.9 .22 10% .25 80% .20
Dec
23		 Kentucky A+ A+ D+ C A+ 39% 20% 41% B+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F F D F F 15% 25% 60% A+ F D+ F F C F C+ D-
1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.2 .41 18% .55 87% .47 1.48 86% 42% 55% +24 -2 1.46 39% 1.4 .54 15% .42 71% .30
Jan
1		 West Georgia B+ A A+ D A 61% 11% 28% A- A F F F A A+ D- A+ F C- F C- F 13% 29% 59% B F F A+ C F F+ F F
1.24 71% 60% 31% +9 +3 1.26 20% 0.8 .16 10% .55 68% .37 1.27 57% 56% 33% +4 -3 1.05 39% 0.8 .30 7% .33 81% .27
Jan
3		 Queens D B F A+ B+ 50% 9% 41% A- A- F D+ F F A D- B+ F F F F F 16% 2% 82% C- F F+ F F B- A A+ A+
1.06 65% 0% 47% +9 +2 1.24 10% 1.0 .10 20% .43 68% .30 1.37 78% 100% 40% +12 +1 1.28 35% 1.3 .46 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
8		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ C+ B A- 34% 9% 57% C+ A- F A+ D B+ D- C- D- C+ A A A A+ 25% 14% 61% B- A+ D- F+ F+ F+ B- F C-
1.13 74% 40% 38% +8 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16 1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20
Jan
10		 North Alabama C+ A+ F B B 35% 10% 55% C B F A+ D B- D F F+ F F A F F 37% 20% 44% B- F F A+ C- F+ F F F
1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15 1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33
Jan
15		 Lipscomb C F A+ F F 32% 21% 47% C F C D C- A+ A+ D A+ F D F C- D- 39% 9% 52% C- D- F C F B- F A+ F
1.07 41% 55% 20% -12 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .27 9% .50 67% .33 1.22 65% 50% 35% +4 +2 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 18% .42 61% .26
Jan
17		 Eastern Kentucky D B- F F F 40% 12% 49% B+ F D- D- F+ C+ A+ A- A+ F F A+ F F 22% 13% 64% D- F F F F B- F D- F
1.09 65% 20% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 14% .53 79% .42 1.40 80% 0% 45% +10 0 1.22 44% 1.8 .81 19% .41 76% .31
Jan
22		 Jacksonville B+ D C+ A+ A 56% 11% 33% A- A D B- C- D- F A+ D+ D C F B D+ 43% 13% 43% F+ D A+ F D- F D+ F F
1.23 56% 40% 60% +12 +2 1.31 25% 1.0 .25 18% .27 86% .23 1.12 55% 50% 30% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 13% .31 100% .31
Jan
24		 North Florida A+ A+ F A+ A+ 55% 9% 36% A A+ F A+ D A C- A+ B- F F F F F 31% 9% 60% D+ F C- F F F F F F
1.44 76% 33% 42% +13 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22 1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28
Jan
28		 West Georgia B A C+ B- A 54% 10% 35% B+ A D C D+ B+ F A+ F+ F B D+ F F 20% 38% 42% A F D+ F+ F+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.25 73% 40% 35% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .22 83% .18 1.20 50% 42% 52% +11 -4 1.18 32% 1.2 .39 16% .15 38% .06
Jan
31		 Queens C+ C+ A+ B+ B 39% 22% 39% D+ B- D+ A+ A- C- C- A+ B+ D+ C- C+ C+ B- 25% 22% 53% A B F F F D- A- A+ A+
1.23 61% 50% 39% +7 0 1.15 31% 1.5 .46 16% .34 89% .30 1.18 62% 36% 33% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.4 .50 13% .25 57% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Stetson A+ B+ C A+ A+ 44% 10% 46% B+ A+ D A+ B- A F A+ F F F F D+ F 13% 18% 69% B+ F+ D F F C- C C- C-
1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11 1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20
Feb
7		 Florida Gulf Coast B- B+ A A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% C+ A+ F F F B+ D A+ C B- C- F+ A C+ 19% 32% 49% A B B- B+ B C C- B+ C+
1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26 0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18
Feb
11		 Central Arkansas B B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 9% 61% C+ A+ F B F+ F F A+ F+ F C+ D F D- 41% 10% 49% D- D- D F+ D- F F B F
1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14 1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26
Feb
14		 Austin Peay B F F A+ D+ 55% 8% 37% A C- D A+ A A+ F A+ C- F D- F F F 50% 9% 41% F F F F F C F F F
1.16 48% 25% 44% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.4 .37 10% .22 92% .20 1.49 64% 50% 50% +14 +2 1.34 41% 1.3 .55 17% .55 86% .48
Feb
18		 Lipscomb C B F D+ C- 44% 15% 41% A- C D C+ D+ A+ F F F F F A+ F F 24% 6% 69% C+ F A A A C+ B F C
1.13 67% 25% 32% +1 +1 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 11% .19 64% .12 1.17 75% 0% 44% +12 +1 1.29 17% 0.8 .14 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
21		 Eastern Kentucky A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 47% 4% 49% A+ A+ F+ A+ C+ D C- A+ B F B B F F 13% 13% 74% D+ F B F C- F F F F
1.44 86% 50% 50% +25 +3 1.58 25% 1.5 .38 17% .32 88% .28 1.49 50% 33% 54% +21 -1 1.43 28% 1.3 .36 13% .43 79% .34
Feb
25		 North Alabama C C+ F F F 67% 2% 31% A+ F+ C- A B- C+ A+ A A+ F C+ F F+ F 48% 13% 40% D- F F D F A- F D- F
1.16 61% 0% 15% -8 +4 0.95 33% 1.3 .44 14% .45 83% .37 1.24 53% 60% 38% +2 +2 1.10 57% 1.1 .63 22% .63 72% .46
Feb
28		 Austin Peay A+ B A+ A+ A+ 57% 9% 34% A A+ D A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ C D 36% 22% 41% B D+ C- F F D F C F
1.34 67% 60% 45% +12 +3 1.33 26% 1.6 .41 13% .47 82% .39 1.17 71% 23% 33% +1 0 1.03 29% 1.7 .50 15% .42 73% .31
Mar
4		 Jacksonville A- C+ D A+ B+ 49% 12% 39% B+ B+ F+ D F+ A- C- A+ B+ F A+ F F F 42% 26% 32% B- F+ F A+ C+ F C C+ C
1.29 63% 33% 47% +9 +2 1.24 21% 0.8 .18 11% .35 85% .30 1.24 36% 57% 47% +2 -1 1.06 39% 0.7 .29 8% .29 71% .20
Mar
6		 Central Arkansas B- C+ A+ C- C 46% 2% 52% A B- C+ A+ A+ C C C- C- F F B+ F F 35% 15% 50% C F D+ F F B- C F D+
1.16 62% 100% 33% +3 +3 1.13 30% 1.8 .52 19% .27 71% .20 1.36 76% 29% 50% +17 +1 1.38 29% 1.4 .42 17% .27 79% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 100.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%