Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#177
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#208
Pace63.6#310
Improvement+0.3#147

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#119
First Shot+1.9#127
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#186
Layup/Dunks+5.5#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#227
Freethrows+1.4#89
Improvement-0.5#239

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#257
First Shot-2.8#270
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#158
Layups/Dunks+1.1#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#331
Freethrows-1.2#256
Improvement+0.8#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.6
.500 or above 41.5% 65.9% 38.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 90.0% 82.1%
Conference Champion 18.0% 27.0% 16.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 0.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 10.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 33 - 43 - 11
Quad 410 - 313 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 67-96 3%     0 - 1 -6.5 +5.1 -13.0
  Nov 13, 2021 89   @ Murray St. L 59-78 18%     0 - 2 -9.8 -5.6 -5.2
  Nov 17, 2021 41   @ St. Mary's L 64-73 10%     0 - 3 +4.5 +3.1 +1.1
  Nov 19, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 50-92 2%     0 - 4 -17.4 -12.3 -6.0
  Nov 22, 2021 6   UCLA L 62-75 6%     0 - 5 +4.5 -3.6 +8.1
  Nov 23, 2021 302   Central Michigan W 76-69 76%     1 - 5 -0.9 +2.7 -3.1
  Nov 30, 2021 48   @ West Virginia L 63-76 11%    
  Dec 15, 2021 233   @ South Dakota L 71-72 50%    
  Dec 18, 2021 136   @ Miami (OH) L 67-73 30%    
  Dec 21, 2021 129   Loyola Marymount W 71-70 49%    
  Dec 29, 2021 212   @ Bradley L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 04, 2022 147   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 08, 2022 161   Eastern Kentucky W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 11, 2022 340   Central Arkansas W 81-66 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 220   @ Lipscomb L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 18, 2022 307   North Alabama W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 259   Jacksonville W 68-60 76%    
  Jan 27, 2022 270   @ Stetson W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 191   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-75 41%    
  Feb 03, 2022 174   Liberty W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 05, 2022 277   Kennesaw St. W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 09, 2022 287   @ North Florida W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 12, 2022 307   @ North Alabama W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 16, 2022 340   @ Central Arkansas W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 147   Jacksonville St. W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 23, 2022 220   Lipscomb W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 161   @ Eastern Kentucky L 76-80 36%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.2 6.0 4.1 1.8 0.5 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 5.3 6.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 1.0 5.5 6.1 1.6 0.2 14.3 3rd
4th 0.4 4.5 6.0 1.8 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.9 2.1 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.1 2.8 0.3 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.1 2.7 0.2 6.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 2.5 0.6 5.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.8 11.2 14.3 15.4 14.6 12.1 8.5 4.5 1.8 0.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 99.4% 1.8    1.7 0.0
14-2 92.4% 4.1    3.4 0.7 0.0
13-3 70.5% 6.0    3.6 2.1 0.4
12-4 34.5% 4.2    1.2 1.8 1.0 0.2
11-5 9.0% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 10.6 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 0.5
15-1 1.8% 1.8
14-2 4.5% 4.5
13-3 8.5% 8.5
12-4 12.1% 12.1
11-5 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 14.6
10-6 15.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 15.4
9-7 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 14.3
8-8 11.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
7-9 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.8
6-10 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.9
5-11 2.7% 2.7
4-12 1.2% 1.2
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%