Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#268
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#254
Pace66.1#270
Improvement+3.2#27

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#144
First Shot+4.4#69
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#351
Layup/Dunks+5.1#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#180
Freethrows+1.6#91
Improvement+0.8#112

Defense
Total Defense-6.5#345
First Shot-7.2#357
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#130
Layups/Dunks-0.4#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#359
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement+2.4#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.5% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 22.4% 31.3% 13.4%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 66.9% 40.8%
Conference Champion 4.7% 7.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 2.1% 8.1%
First Four2.3% 2.2% 2.3%
First Round4.4% 5.6% 3.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Away) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 411 - 813 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 23 @Georgia L 59-104 2%     0 - 1 -26.1 -10.4 -12.0
  Sat, Nov 8 69 @Kansas St. L 71-98 7%     0 - 2 -16.0 +0.7 -16.3
  Sat, Nov 15 220 Wofford L 86-94 53%     0 - 3 -14.7 +9.1 -23.7
  Wed, Nov 19 65 @Notre Dame L 79-86 6%     0 - 4 +4.4 +12.6 -8.2
  Mon, Nov 24 355 @The Citadel W 70-58 68%     1 - 4 +1.3 +1.7 +1.6
  Tue, Nov 25 274 Houston Christian W 74-69 51%     2 - 4 -1.1 +7.1 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 6 101 @Murray St. L 68-81 10%     2 - 5 -4.8 +1.0 -6.8
  Sat, Dec 13 202 Northern Kentucky L 76-80 50%     2 - 6 -9.8 +0.4 -10.1
  Wed, Dec 17 241 Chattanooga W 79-64 56%     3 - 6 +7.6 +3.6 +4.5
  Tue, Dec 23 20 @Kentucky L 85-99 2%     3 - 7 +5.3 +25.9 -21.2
  Thu, Jan 1 315 @West Georgia W 76-75 50%    
  Sat, Jan 3 233 @Queens L 79-84 33%    
  Thu, Jan 8 281 Central Arkansas W 77-73 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 246 North Alabama W 74-72 57%    
  Thu, Jan 15 154 @Lipscomb L 73-82 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 255 @Eastern Kentucky L 75-78 38%    
  Thu, Jan 22 317 @Jacksonville W 72-71 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 347 @North Florida W 85-82 62%    
  Wed, Jan 28 315 West Georgia W 79-73 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 233 Queens W 82-81 54%    
  Thu, Feb 5 349 Stetson W 80-70 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 186 Florida Gulf Coast L 78-79 46%    
  Thu, Feb 12 281 @Central Arkansas L 74-76 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 197 @Austin Peay L 70-76 28%    
  Wed, Feb 18 154 Lipscomb L 76-79 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 255 Eastern Kentucky W 78-75 59%    
  Wed, Feb 25 246 @North Alabama L 71-75 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 197 Austin Peay L 72-73 49%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.4 1.0 0.1 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 5.6 1.8 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 6.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 5.7 3.8 0.3 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.9 3.9 0.8 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.1 1.0 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.0 9.1 11.9 13.3 14.5 12.9 10.1 7.5 4.7 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 99.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 85.5% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 59.0% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1
13-5 26.1% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 5.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 22.9% 22.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.2% 23.0% 23.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.5% 20.3% 20.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.0
13-5 4.7% 14.9% 14.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 4.0
12-6 7.5% 10.3% 10.3% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 6.7
11-7 10.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 9.2
10-8 12.9% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 12.2
9-9 14.5% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.6 13.9
8-10 13.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 12.9
7-11 11.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.7
6-12 9.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.0
5-13 6.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 5.9
4-14 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.6 94.5 0.0%