The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.7#355
Expected Predictive Rating-19.7#360
Pace62.8#337
Improvement+2.5#49

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#314
First Shot-4.8#312
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#209
Layup/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement-1.2#267

Defense
Total Defense-8.5#360
First Shot-7.4#357
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#270
Layups/Dunks-5.2#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#281
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement+3.7#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 7.9% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 63.4% 42.4% 66.4%
First Four0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 44 - 144 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 156 @Boston College L 47-76 7%     0 - 1 -25.7 -18.6 -8.9
  Mon, Nov 10 239 Charleston Southern L 86-96 28%     0 - 2 -17.6 +7.5 -24.8
  Fri, Nov 14 316 @West Georgia L 92-100 23%     0 - 3 -14.0 +9.3 -22.7
  Mon, Nov 24 267 Bellarmine L 58-70 32%     0 - 4 -20.8 -13.2 -9.6
  Wed, Nov 26 279 Houston Christian L 65-72 33%     0 - 5 -16.3 -2.0 -15.6
  Sun, Nov 30 286 Presbyterian L 41-69 25%     0 - 6 -34.6 -21.6 -21.2
  Thu, Dec 4 140 @Davidson L 63-79 6%     0 - 7 -11.6 -1.3 -11.9
  Sat, Dec 13 90 @South Carolina L 55-71 3%     0 - 8 -6.8 -9.6 +1.9
  Wed, Dec 17 169 @College of Charleston L 78-82 7%     0 - 9 -1.6 +3.5 -5.0
  Sat, Dec 20 104 @Richmond L 56-80 4%     0 - 10 -16.5 -8.1 -10.4
  Wed, Dec 31 141 East Tennessee St. L 66-78 13%    
  Sat, Jan 3 220 Wofford L 68-75 26%    
  Wed, Jan 7 174 @Mercer L 67-83 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 299 Western Carolina L 72-75 38%    
  Thu, Jan 15 294 @UNC Greensboro L 67-77 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 332 @VMI L 71-77 28%    
  Wed, Jan 21 148 Furman L 65-77 14%    
  Sat, Jan 24 141 @East Tennessee St. L 63-81 5%    
  Thu, Jan 29 332 VMI L 73-74 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 294 UNC Greensboro L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Feb 5 227 @Samford L 66-79 13%    
  Sat, Feb 7 235 @Chattanooga L 65-77 13%    
  Wed, Feb 11 299 @Western Carolina L 69-78 21%    
  Sat, Feb 14 174 Mercer L 70-80 19%    
  Thu, Feb 19 227 Samford L 69-76 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 235 Chattanooga L 68-74 29%    
  Wed, Feb 25 148 @Furman L 62-80 6%    
  Sat, Feb 28 220 @Wofford L 65-78 12%    
Projected Record 4 - 24 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.7 4.4 1.3 0.1 12.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 5.6 9.2 6.7 2.0 0.1 0.0 25.1 9th
10th 3.5 10.4 14.8 12.9 6.8 1.6 0.2 50.3 10th
Total 3.5 10.5 16.3 18.7 17.8 13.6 9.2 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 12.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 2.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 1.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
8-10 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.7
7-11 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
6-12 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
5-13 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.6
4-14 17.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.8
3-15 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.7
2-16 16.3% 16.3
1-17 10.5% 10.5
0-18 3.5% 3.5
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%