The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#301
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#288
Pace70.4#113
Improvement-0.2#204

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#287
First Shot+0.3#173
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#361
Layup/Dunks+1.0#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#170
Freethrows+1.0#100
Improvement+0.1#174

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#298
First Shot-2.9#269
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#297
Layups/Dunks-0.4#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#234
Freethrows-1.7#305
Improvement-0.3#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.7% 6.3% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.1% 5.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 70.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 49 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 60   @ Clemson L 69-80 5%     0 - 1 +0.6 +3.6 -3.2
  Nov 10, 2022 330   Presbyterian W 70-58 69%     1 - 1 -0.7 -2.1 +2.6
  Nov 19, 2022 86   @ Butler L 42-89 7%     1 - 2 -38.5 -23.9 -15.9
  Nov 23, 2022 348   @ New Orleans W 72-65 57%     2 - 2 -2.5 -12.6 +9.4
  Nov 24, 2022 318   Denver L 71-74 54%     2 - 3 -11.7 -5.8 -5.9
  Nov 25, 2022 359   IUPUI W 74-53 78%     3 - 3 +5.2 -2.3 +8.9
  Nov 30, 2022 280   @ Charleston Southern W 76-73 34%     4 - 3 -0.6 -0.9 +0.4
  Dec 03, 2022 83   College of Charleston L 57-79 14%     4 - 4 -18.2 -15.5 -2.4
  Dec 13, 2022 26   @ North Carolina L 67-100 3%     4 - 5 -17.4 -5.2 -9.1
  Dec 17, 2022 181   Longwood L 70-75 33%     4 - 6 -8.2 +2.9 -11.6
  Dec 20, 2022 254   @ NC Central L 74-81 29%     4 - 7 -9.1 -4.5 -4.1
  Dec 29, 2022 164   Chattanooga W 76-68 31%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +5.5 +3.8 +2.2
  Dec 31, 2022 145   Samford L 63-75 27%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -13.4 -12.8 -0.8
  Jan 04, 2023 87   @ Furman L 72-97 7%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -16.5 -2.8 -12.6
  Jan 07, 2023 215   @ Wofford L 57-77 22%     5 - 10 1 - 3 -19.5 -20.3 +1.4
  Jan 11, 2023 223   East Tennessee St. L 74-96 42%     5 - 11 1 - 4 -27.7 -4.6 -21.8
  Jan 14, 2023 260   Western Carolina W 65-61 51%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -4.1 -7.7 +4.0
  Jan 19, 2023 138   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-70 13%     6 - 12 2 - 5 -5.6 -3.7 -2.3
  Jan 21, 2023 335   @ VMI W 60-52 50%     7 - 12 3 - 5 +0.3 -11.6 +12.8
  Jan 25, 2023 260   @ Western Carolina W 81-70 31%     8 - 12 4 - 5 +8.4 +8.3 +0.4
  Jan 28, 2023 228   Mercer L 65-74 43%     8 - 13 4 - 6 -14.9 -4.7 -11.0
  Jan 30, 2023 317   Chicago St. L 75-76 63%     8 - 14 -12.1 +0.2 -12.4
  Feb 02, 2023 335   VMI W 76-71 70%    
  Feb 04, 2023 138   UNC Greensboro L 61-68 27%    
  Feb 08, 2023 164   @ Chattanooga L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 11, 2023 145   @ Samford L 68-80 13%    
  Feb 15, 2023 87   Furman L 70-81 16%    
  Feb 18, 2023 215   Wofford L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 22, 2023 223   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-72 24%    
  Feb 25, 2023 228   @ Mercer L 65-72 24%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.4 4.1 1.5 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 3.4 4.9 0.3 8.6 6th
7th 1.5 10.4 1.9 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 1.4 12.5 8.6 0.2 22.7 8th
9th 5.3 20.4 17.7 1.5 0.0 45.0 9th
10th 0.3 0.1 0.4 10th
Total 5.6 21.8 31.8 24.4 11.8 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 3.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.8
8-10 11.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.7
7-11 24.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.3
6-12 31.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 31.7
5-13 21.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.8
4-14 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.6
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0