The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -12.4 342
Expected Predictive Rating -11.4 334
Pace 62.3 338
Improvement +5.3 19

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 332 D D D+ D C
Defense D- 332 F+ C- D B- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 315 D 52% 310 -4.9 337
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 235 D+ 34% 301 -1.4 257
Three Pointers 48% 47 D 31% 302 +1.2 141
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 207 D- -4.8 333
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 327
Second Chance D+ 26.8% 283 D+ 0.95 293 D 0.26 309
Turnovers D+ 18.3% 280
Freethrows D 0.26 306 D 69% 289 D 0.18 321
Total Offense D -6.4 332

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 307 F+ 15.4% 351
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 9% 359 C 5.4% 205
Three Pointers B 90% 54 C+ 0.7% 133
Total C- 54% 217 D+ 6.5% 279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 F+ 67% 354 +5.1 333
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 347 C- 39% 231 -2.2 24
Three Pointers 45% 73 D- 38% 334 +4.5 343
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 341 F+ +6.0 359
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.17 361
Second Chance D+ 32.3% 260 C 1.02 178 C- 0.33 233
Turnovers D 14.7% 309
Freethrows C+ 0.28 124 B+ 69% 35 B- 0.20 83
Total Defense D- -6.0 332

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 106 D+ 8.0% 303
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 269 D 2.4% 317
Three Pointers C+ 82% 126 C- 0.6% 238
Total C 56% 183 D 3.9% 313

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 350 16.6 57
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 350 0.20 269
Improvement -1.7 #268 +7.0 #2

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 351 342 328
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 9 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 2% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 41.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 11
Quad 47 - 117 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 135 @Boston College L 47 - 76 7% -11  21% 0 - 1 F -24 F -20 F D D- D- -7 C+ D+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 258 Charleston Southern L 86 - 96 35% -0  48% 0 - 2 F -18 B- +5 A+ F C+ F -23 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 318 @West Georgia L 92 - 100 29% -8  5% 0 - 3 F+ -15 B +6 C+ D- A F -20 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 287 Bellarmine L 58 - 70 42% -5  20% 0 - 4 F -22 F -20 F C F D+ -5 D+ C+ F+
 Wed, Nov 26 294 Houston Christian L 65 - 72 43% -6  1% 0 - 5 F+ -18 D+ -4 F+ C+ B F -15 F F C-
 Sun, Nov 30 272 Presbyterian L 41 - 69 28% -19  0% 0 - 6 F -34 F -25 F D- F F -18 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 4 112 @Davidson L 63 - 79 5% -9  0% 0 - 7 D -10 D+ -3 B D- F+ F+ -8 C D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 94 @South Carolina L 55 - 71 4% -5  13% 0 - 8 D+ -7 F -13 F F B B +4 A- C- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 151 @College of Charleston L 78 - 82 8% +2  52% 0 - 9 C -1 C+ +3 B- D+ D- D+ -4 F A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 129 @Richmond L 56 - 80 6% -11  0% 0 - 10 F -19 F -13 C- F+ F D- -8 F B+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 131 East Tennessee St. L 49 - 74 15% -13  8% 0 - 11 0 - 1 F -26 F -22 F C+ F D- -7 D D- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 230 Wofford L 86 - 95 30% -8  5% 0 - 12 0 - 2 F+ -16 B+ +9 B+ A+ F F -25 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 175 @Mercer L 63 - 101 10% -21  0% 0 - 13 0 - 3 F -36 F+ -9 C- B F F -30 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 254 Western Carolina W 79 - 77 OT 34% -2  29% 1 - 13 1 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -3 F+ A C D+ -3 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 300 @UNC Greensboro L 66 - 69 OT 24% +4  67% 1 - 14 1 - 4 D+ -8 F -14 F+ F F B+ +6 C B D
 Sat, Jan 17 358 @VMI W 82 - 68 51% +10  92% 2 - 14 2 - 4 C +1 C +1 B- F D C+ +0 F+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 21 181 Furman W 77 - 75 OT 22% -6  19% 3 - 14 3 - 4 C- -2 C +1 D B+ C C- -3 C A F
 Fri, Jan 23 131 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 84 6% -18  8% 3 - 15 3 - 5 F -24 F -13 D- F A- F -14 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 358 VMI W 80 - 56 73% +12  87% 4 - 15 4 - 5 B- +5 C+ +3 A F B B+ +5 C A- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 300 UNC Greensboro W 71 - 66 OT 45% +2  62% 5 - 15 5 - 5 D+ -6 F -11 D+ F A B +5 B D B
 Thu, Feb 5 187 @Samford L 64 - 78 11% -6  0% 5 - 16 5 - 6 D- -13 D- -7 D- B F+ D- -7 F B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 282 @Chattanooga W 78 - 71 21% +2  81% 6 - 16 6 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +2 B- C+ C+ C+ +1 C F B
 Wed, Feb 11 254 @Western Carolina L 49 - 87 17% -26  0% 6 - 17 6 - 7 F -40 F -24 F F+ F+ F -21 F F F
 Sat, Feb 14 175 Mercer L 54 - 70 21% +1  54% 6 - 18 6 - 8 F -20 F -18 F B+ F+ D+ -4 F A B+
 Thu, Feb 19 187 Samford L 75 - 78 23% -5  20% 6 - 19 6 - 9 D+ -8 D -5 D D+ A C- -3 F B+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 282 Chattanooga L 69 - 71 41%
 Wed, Feb 25 181 @Furman L 61 - 75 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 230 @Wofford L 67 - 79 14%
Totals 7 - 21 7 - 11 -12 D -6 F+ D- C D- -6 D D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D+ D D- 33% 33% 48% C D D+ D+ D D+ D D D D- F+ C- D- F+ 41% 14% 45% D- F+ D+ C C- D C+ B+ B-
0.99 52% 34% 31% -5 0 0.92 27% 1.0 .26 18% .26 69% .18 1.17 67% 39% 38% +6 +1 1.17 32% 1.0 .33 15% .28 69% .18
Nov
6		 Boston College F F F F F 40% 10% 50% A- F F+ C- D D- A F C- D- F F A+ B- 33% 16% 51% D- C+ D C D+ F F B F
0.71 42% 0% 21% -20 +1 0.65 20% 0.9 .17 18% .37 50% .19 1.15 71% 63% 19% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 6% .45 61% .27
Nov
10		 Charleston Southern B- A A+ A A+ 35% 33% 33% D- A+ F F F C+ A+ D A- F D F F F 45% 7% 47% D- F F C- F F F F F
1.19 67% 53% 41% +11 -2 1.21 19% 0.7 .13 11% .47 67% .31 1.33 64% 50% 42% +9 +2 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 12% .33 76% .25
Nov
14		 West Georgia B C- A+ B C+ 52% 14% 33% B- C+ C- F D- A C- C C- F F C- F F 48% 32% 20% F+ F F F F F F B F
1.21 58% 56% 38% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.7 .21 11% .31 71% .22 1.32 70% 39% 45% +10 -1 1.20 39% 1.3 .48 12% .40 67% .27
Nov
24		 Bellarmine F C+ F F F 38% 22% 40% C- F A+ F C F B- D C D+ D+ A+ F D 43% 13% 43% C D+ A- F C+ F+ C- A+ A-
0.97 65% 20% 17% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.8 .41 20% .33 69% .23 1.16 65% 17% 45% +7 +1 1.20 14% 1.5 .21 12% .30 56% .17
Nov
26		 Houston Christian D+ D F B F 30% 15% 55% D+ F+ C B+ C+ B D- A+ C F F F B- F 38% 13% 49% D- F F+ F F C- C+ A B
1.11 57% 0% 38% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.2 .39 15% .22 91% .20 1.23 82% 50% 32% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 17% .27 62% .16
Nov
30		 Presbyterian F F C F F 28% 25% 48% F F D- D- D- F C F F+ F C F F F 33% 19% 48% D+ F D- F F D- A+ A+ A+
0.76 18% 40% 26% -16 -1 0.68 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 46% .14 1.27 57% 50% 45% +10 0 1.21 38% 1.6 .58 17% .20 56% .11
Dec
4		 Davidson D+ C+ A+ F B 33% 24% 43% C B F C D- F+ C- F D F+ A- F+ F+ C 35% 16% 49% D+ C D C D+ F F B+ D
0.99 60% 73% 25% +3 -1 1.07 21% 1.0 .21 22% .28 57% .16 1.24 50% 50% 40% +3 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .37 9% .36 62% .22
Dec
13		 South Carolina F C- C+ F F 42% 27% 31% C F D+ F F B A F C B D F+ A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% F A- D B- C- C- D F+ F+
0.83 55% 38% 13% -11 -1 0.79 26% 0.6 .15 14% .35 55% .19 1.07 67% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 14% .37 86% .31
Dec
17		 College of Charleston C+ F+ D- A B- 27% 17% 56% C+ B- D+ C- D+ D- F+ F F+ D+ F D B- F 33% 12% 55% D- F A+ F A+ D+ F C F
1.08 50% 30% 39% +1 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .26 17% .17 60% .10 1.14 86% 40% 30% +7 +1 1.17 10% 1.3 .14 15% .67 76% .51
Dec
20		 Richmond F F A- C- C- 31% 23% 46% C+ C- D F F+ F F F F D- F F B F 24% 22% 55% C- F D+ A+ B+ D C- A B-
0.87 47% 45% 32% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.9 .24 25% .14 57% .08 1.24 100% 64% 32% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.7 .19 12% .34 68% .23
Dec
30		 East Tennessee St. F B- F F F 24% 11% 64% C- F C+ C+ C+ F C- F D- D- C- B+ D- D+ 51% 13% 36% F+ D F C D- B- D F F+
0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17 1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31
Jan
3		 Wofford B+ C F A+ B+ 43% 14% 43% C+ B+ A A+ A+ F C A+ B- F C- B F F 38% 6% 56% D- F F A+ B+ C D+ D+ D+
1.29 57% 29% 48% +7 +1 1.18 41% 1.7 .70 20% .30 88% .26 1.43 58% 33% 61% +22 +2 1.50 38% 0.5 .21 15% .35 75% .27
Jan
7		 Mercer F+ F A B D+ 34% 10% 56% B C- C A B F C C C F D F F F 35% 12% 53% D- F F F F C+ D+ F F
0.96 43% 50% 39% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .39 27% .25 75% .19 1.54 65% 50% 54% +20 +1 1.43 48% 1.3 .60 17% .37 90% .33
Jan
10		 Western Carolina D+ D C- D F 35% 20% 45% C- F+ A- B A C A+ A- A+ D+ D B B C 35% 15% 50% C- C A- A- A- F B- A B
1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39 1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16
Jan
15		 UNC Greensboro F F D- C+ F+ 28% 17% 56% C F+ F F F F F+ A+ D B+ F C+ A+ C 44% 27% 29% C- C F A+ B D B+ A+ A+
0.96 47% 33% 37% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 17% .19 82% .16 1.01 70% 36% 20% -2 0 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 13% .32 47% .15
Jan
17		 VMI C F A+ A+ C 47% 9% 44% A B- D- F F D A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ A+ D+ D- 47% 2% 51% F F+ A D+ B C- F A F
1.21 50% 75% 47% +9 +2 1.23 32% 0.5 .16 19% .58 84% .49 1.00 52% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 16% .49 64% .32
Jan
21		 Furman C A F F D- 37% 10% 53% B+ D C A+ B+ C A+ B A+ C- F B- A+ C+ 44% 9% 47% D- C C- A+ A F C+ F D+
1.10 67% 20% 23% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.3 .38 14% .50 77% .38 1.07 75% 40% 23% 0 +2 1.05 31% 0.6 .18 14% .27 81% .22
Jan
23		 East Tennessee St. F F F A+ D- 31% 16% 53% D+ D- F F+ F A- D+ F F F F F D- F 37% 8% 55% D- F D+ F F D- C+ A- B
0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11 1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21
Jan
29		 VMI C+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 15% 73% D A C- F F B D+ F F B+ B- A+ C C+ 36% 14% 50% C- C A- A A- C+ A F A-
1.27 83% 29% 49% +18 -1 1.35 38% 0.4 .16 14% .28 47% .13 0.89 50% 14% 32% -8 +1 0.88 19% 0.7 .14 17% .19 80% .15
Jan
31		 UNC Greensboro F B D+ C+ C- 23% 26% 51% F+ D+ D F F A B+ F+ B- B F A+ A+ B+ 35% 17% 48% D B D+ D D B D A+ B-
1.05 67% 36% 37% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.2 .05 9% .32 65% .21 0.97 71% 25% 22% -7 0 0.90 29% 1.1 .32 18% .41 57% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Samford D- C A+ F D 30% 34% 36% D D- A- C- B F+ C- F F D- D+ F+ F F 30% 24% 46% B F D A+ B+ B- F C- F
0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13 1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33
Feb
7		 Chattanooga C+ A+ B- F C+ 40% 10% 50% B+ B- F A+ C+ C+ F A+ F C+ D- D- A C 31% 20% 48% C C F D F B A+ C A+
1.15 76% 40% 27% +2 +2 1.10 21% 1.8 .39 13% .22 85% .19 1.04 65% 45% 27% -1 0 0.98 29% 1.2 .35 18% .14 75% .11
Feb
11		 Western Carolina F F F F F 36% 16% 49% C+ F F+ F+ F+ F+ D A+ C+ F D- A+ F F 53% 4% 43% F F F+ F F F A A+ A+
0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26 1.39 63% 0% 45% +9 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11
Feb
14		 Mercer F F B+ F F 29% 24% 47% D- F D A+ B+ F+ C- A+ B D+ C- A+ F F 42% 19% 40% D F A A- A B+ D+ A+ B-
0.88 23% 45% 24% -15 -1 0.69 29% 1.4 .40 21% .25 92% .23 1.14 61% 25% 53% +10 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .22 19% .36 61% .22
Feb
19		 Samford D C- F B- D 29% 27% 44% C- D F A+ D+ A F C F C- F A- F F 39% 14% 47% D- F D A+ B+ A B- A+ A-
1.06 56% 24% 37% -3 -2 0.94 17% 1.6 .26 8% .12 75% .09 1.10 79% 29% 39% +10 +1 1.24 27% 0.7 .18 18% .33 58% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.4 5th
6th 1.8 0.3 2.1 6th
7th 2.8 4.7 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 2.1 34.4 2.9 39.3 8th
9th 44.5 6.1 50.6 9th
10th 10th
Total 46.6 43.2 9.4 0.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
7-11 43.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 43.2
6-12 46.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 46.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 34.6%