The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#325
Expected Predictive Rating-13.2#343
Pace64.3#309
Improvement-1.2#257

Offense
Total Offense-6.1#333
First Shot-7.3#348
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#112
Layup/Dunks-1.6#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#247
Freethrows-3.6#343
Improvement-0.1#194

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#271
First Shot-1.7#227
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#270
Layups/Dunks-4.3#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.7#2
Freethrows-3.2#335
Improvement-1.1#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 4.1% 6.8% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 9.6% 12.8% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 32.0% 26.7% 37.5%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 50.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 46 - 77 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 145   @ Boston College L 60-69 12%     0 - 1 -5.1 -8.3 +2.9
  Nov 11, 2024 329   Stetson W 74-52 63%     1 - 1 +9.4 -3.4 +13.7
  Nov 17, 2024 311   N.C. A&T L 73-82 58%     1 - 2 -20.1 -6.4 -13.6
  Nov 20, 2024 127   College of Charleston L 61-76 23%     1 - 3 -16.3 -10.1 -6.8
  Dec 12, 2024 278   Campbell W 65-64 51%    
  Dec 16, 2024 337   @ Central Arkansas L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 18, 2024 67   @ Vanderbilt L 61-82 3%    
  Jan 01, 2025 121   @ Samford L 70-85 9%    
  Jan 04, 2025 200   Chattanooga L 67-71 34%    
  Jan 08, 2025 119   Furman L 62-71 21%    
  Jan 11, 2025 135   @ East Tennessee St. L 61-75 11%    
  Jan 15, 2025 160   @ UNC Greensboro L 58-70 14%    
  Jan 18, 2025 346   VMI W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 22, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 61-74 12%    
  Jan 25, 2025 263   Western Carolina L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 232   @ Mercer L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 01, 2025 121   Samford L 73-82 22%    
  Feb 05, 2025 160   UNC Greensboro L 61-67 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 346   @ VMI W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 142   Wofford L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 263   @ Western Carolina L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 19, 2025 232   Mercer L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 200   @ Chattanooga L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 26, 2025 119   @ Furman L 59-74 10%    
  Mar 01, 2025 135   East Tennessee St. L 64-72 26%    
Projected Record 7 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.7 2.4 0.3 11.8 7th
8th 0.6 2.8 6.4 6.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 19.7 8th
9th 0.3 3.0 8.3 10.2 6.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 31.3 9th
10th 1.5 4.9 7.0 5.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 21.8 10th
Total 1.5 5.2 10.0 14.3 15.5 14.7 12.8 9.7 6.7 4.4 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 73.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 32.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 10.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 17.4% 17.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 15.7% 15.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 8.5% 8.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.5% 5.3% 5.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 4.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.3
8-10 6.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.6
7-11 9.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.6
6-12 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-13 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
4-14 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.5
3-15 14.3% 14.3
2-16 10.0% 10.0
1-17 5.2% 5.2
0-18 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%