The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#238
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#226
Pace70.6#134
Improvement-1.9#298

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#185
First Shot+1.2#142
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#257
Layup/Dunks-2.1#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#41
Freethrows-1.4#268
Improvement-0.8#249

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#294
First Shot-0.9#200
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#326
Layups/Dunks-1.0#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#117
Freethrows-1.2#268
Improvement-1.0#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 27.8% 29.4% 9.6%
.500 or above in Conference 25.6% 26.6% 14.3%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.3% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 20.0% 19.1% 29.9%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round1.8% 1.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 92.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 48 - 412 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 179   @ Pittsburgh W 78-63 27%     1 - 0 +17.4 +9.6 +8.3
  Nov 15, 2021 276   @ Presbyterian L 70-74 2OT 47%     1 - 1 -7.2 -10.9 +4.1
  Nov 22, 2021 8   @ Duke L 81-107 2%     1 - 2 -5.6 +15.5 -20.3
  Nov 28, 2021 352   @ South Carolina St. W 91-79 OT 80%     2 - 2 -1.1 -3.0 -0.1
  Dec 01, 2021 255   @ UNC Asheville L 58-65 41%     2 - 3 -8.8 -11.0 +1.7
  Dec 06, 2021 334   NC Central W 80-67 86%     3 - 3 -2.6 +0.9 -3.6
  Dec 20, 2021 352   South Carolina St. W 85-70 92%    
  Dec 21, 2021 270   Manhattan W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 29, 2021 177   Mercer L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 01, 2022 243   @ Samford L 79-82 40%    
  Jan 05, 2022 296   @ Western Carolina W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 08, 2022 88   @ Chattanooga L 62-75 12%    
  Jan 13, 2022 174   UNC Greensboro L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 227   VMI W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 19, 2022 124   @ Wofford L 67-77 18%    
  Jan 22, 2022 131   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 26, 2022 296   Western Carolina W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 29, 2022 88   Chattanooga L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 02, 2022 110   @ Furman L 70-81 17%    
  Feb 05, 2022 243   Samford W 82-79 61%    
  Feb 10, 2022 174   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-70 28%    
  Feb 12, 2022 227   @ VMI L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 16, 2022 124   Wofford L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 131   East Tennessee St. L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 23, 2022 177   @ Mercer L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 110   Furman L 73-78 34%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.2 1.4 0.2 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.1 6.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 17.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.7 5.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 16.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 3.2 4.0 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.8 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.7 6.5 10.1 12.4 14.2 13.5 12.4 9.6 7.0 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 91.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 59.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 31.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 25.7% 25.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 23.5% 23.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 11.6% 11.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.3% 12.8% 12.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.5% 8.1% 8.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
11-7 4.4% 6.4% 6.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.1
10-8 7.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.7
9-9 9.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.3
8-10 12.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.1 0.2 12.1
7-11 13.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.4
6-12 14.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.1
5-13 12.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.3
4-14 10.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.1
3-15 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.5
2-16 3.7% 3.7
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 98.1 0.0%