Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #208
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 #165
Pace 75.7 #39
Improvement +2.0 #82

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #155 C- B- C B B+
Defense #275 C- F F B- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.01 #328 -2.2 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #334 0.95 #15 -2.0 #273
Three Pointers 48% #54 0.97 #238 +2.4 #105
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #222 -1.7 #221
Freethrows 19.2 #93 73% #164 14.0 #97
Second Chance 28.0% #262 1.10 #119 0.31 #204
Turnovers 15.1% #86
Total Offense +0.4 #155

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.23 #272 -4.6 #323
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #328 0.78 #227 +1.8 #65
Three Pointers 41% #177 0.96 #136 +0.9 #152
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #244 -1.9 #244
Freethrows 21.2 #333 74% #255 15.7 #27
Second Chance 37.3% #347 1.07 #224 0.40 #331
Turnovers 18.4% #85
Total Defense -3.2 #275

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #44 2.2% #344
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #261 1.6% #207
Possession Length 16.1 #77 16.7 #96
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #268 0.20 #268
Improvement +1.3 #95 +0.8 #138

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 11.7% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.7
.500 or above 92.8% 97.6% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.1% 97.4% 89.0%
Conference Champion 16.4% 25.5% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round8.6% 11.7% 6.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 36.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 34 - 54 - 7
Quad 414 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 273 @East Carolina L 89-92 52%     -1.7   0 - 1 -6.2 +5.7 -11.5
  Sat, Nov 8 242 UNC Asheville W 93-90 68%     -1.2   1 - 1 -4.7 +3.8 -9.0
  Tue, Nov 11 177 @Florida Gulf Coast W 95-94 33%     3.3   2 - 1 +2.9 +17.0 -14.2
  Tue, Nov 18 114 @Georgia Tech L 66-68 19%     0.6   2 - 2 +4.6 -5.8 +10.5
  Fri, Nov 21 108 @Florida St. L 72-98 17%     -13.7   2 - 3 -18.6 -9.4 -5.2
  Mon, Nov 24 195 Youngstown St. L 61-67 48%     -3.9   2 - 4 -8.3 -9.8 +1.4
  Tue, Nov 25 311 Texas San Antonio L 64-77 71%     1.3   2 - 5 -21.5 -13.4 -7.5
  Sat, Nov 29 294 Houston Christian W 80-62 77%     6.4   3 - 5 +7.4 +4.5 +3.7
  Wed, Dec 3 214 Louisiana Tech W 77-69 62%     4.5   4 - 5 +2.0 +8.2 -5.8
  Sat, Dec 6 360 @Gardner-Webb W 88-84 82%     2.6   5 - 5 -8.3 +3.2 -11.8
  Sat, Dec 13 307 @West Georgia W 91-85 60%     8.6   6 - 5 +0.7 +11.4 -11.0
  Thu, Dec 18 301 Georgia St. W 90-67 78%     8.3   7 - 5 1 - 0 +12.0 +16.7 -3.7
  Sat, Dec 20 193 James Madison W 96-92 OT 59%     -2.9   8 - 5 2 - 0 -1.2 +7.4 -9.0
  Thu, Jan 1 269 @Coastal Carolina W 82-81 OT 51%     3.1   9 - 5 3 - 0 -2.0 +3.1 -5.2
  Sat, Jan 3 253 @Old Dominion W 93-86 49%     12.5   10 - 5 4 - 0 +4.6 +6.3 -2.7
  Sat, Jan 10 194 @South Alabama L 71-75 36%    
  Thu, Jan 15 253 Old Dominion W 84-78 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 269 Coastal Carolina W 81-75 72%    
  Thu, Jan 22 135 Arkansas St. L 85-86 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 128 Troy L 77-79 43%    
  Thu, Jan 29 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 87-79 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 315 @Louisiana W 72-69 61%    
  Wed, Feb 4 270 Texas St. W 80-74 72%    
  Wed, Feb 11 222 Appalachian St. W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 163 Marshall W 82-81 53%    
  Thu, Feb 19 301 @Georgia St. W 80-78 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 222 @Appalachian St. L 71-73 42%    
  Wed, Feb 25 193 @James Madison L 77-81 37%    
  Fri, Feb 27 163 @Marshall L 79-84 32%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.4 4.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 16.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 7.9 5.1 1.2 0.1 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.4 7.9 3.8 0.5 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 6.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.5 4.9 5.2 0.7 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 4.9 1.1 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.7 3.5 1.6 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 2.3 0.2 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.9 9.0 13.6 17.1 17.3 14.9 11.0 6.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 96.0% 2.4    2.1 0.3
15-3 79.5% 4.8    3.2 1.4 0.1
14-4 48.9% 5.4    2.2 2.3 0.7 0.1
13-5 17.6% 2.6    0.4 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 8.7 5.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 44.0% 44.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 30.9% 30.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
16-2 2.5% 30.0% 30.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.7
15-3 6.0% 21.4% 21.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 4.7
14-4 11.0% 18.7% 18.7% 14.5 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 8.9
13-5 14.9% 13.3% 13.3% 14.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 12.9
12-6 17.3% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 16.0
11-7 17.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 16.4
10-8 13.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.3
9-9 9.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 9.0
8-10 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.9
7-11 2.2% 2.2
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.3 3.9 0.7 91.4 0.0%