Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +21.6 7
Expected Predictive Rating +22.9 7
Pace 68.8 174
Improvement -2.4 280

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 16 A A- B C C+
Defense A 6 B+ B- A+ B+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 103 A 69% 9 +6.2 15
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 243 C 38% 170 -0.7 216
Three Pointers 40% 208 A+ 42% 3 +4.0 52
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 120 A +8.7 5
1st FG Attempt A 1.21 7
Second Chance A- 38.9% 11 B- 1.09 90 A- 0.42 22
Turnovers B 14.4% 41
Freethrows B- 0.33 105 D- 67% 333 C 0.22 175
Total Offense A- +10.2 16

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 59% 34 B+ 7.4% 27
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 103 D 7.4% 313
Three Pointers B 89% 66 A- 0.0% 3
Total B+ 65% 30 B 4.4% 52

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% 357 C+ 56% 127 -6.5 18
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 42 B+ 33% 16 +0.7 244
Three Pointers 46% 47 B+ 30% 41 -0.1 176
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.4 19 B+ -4.5 38
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.90 34
Second Chance B+ 26.1% 41 C 1.03 184 B- 0.27 67
Turnovers A+ 22.9% 5
Freethrows B+ 0.24 20 B- 70% 72 B+ 0.17 19
Total Defense A +11.4 6

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 274 C 11.7% 140
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 80 B 7.6% 52
Three Pointers C 83% 151 C- 0.8% 181
Total C 56% 201 C 5.6% 170

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.0 55 18.9 355
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 70 0.11 28
Improvement -3.0 #321 +0.6 #151

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 11 7 4
Conference Record 12 - 6 13 - 5 15 - 3
Conference Finish 5 3 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Finish 2nd Round Sweet 16 Champ Game

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2% 3% 1%
#1 Seed 20% 27% 11%
Top 2 Seed 60% 71% 46%
Top 4 Seed 97% 99% 95%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.4 2.1 2.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 11% 18% 3%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round98% 99% 98%
Sweet Sixteen73% 74% 70%
Elite Eight43% 45% 40%
Final Four22% 24% 20%
Championship Game11% 12% 9%
National Champion5% 5% 4%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 5
Quad 210 - 019 - 5
Quad 32 - 021 - 5
Quad 47 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88 - 50 100% +24  99% 1 - 0 A+ +24 B- +5 A+ F B+ A+ +18 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 293 Grambling St. W 102 - 62 99% +16  99% 2 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +19 A A- B+ A +8 C+ B+ A
 Mon, Nov 10 69 Mississippi St. W 96 - 80 89% +11  82% 3 - 0 A+ +24 A+ +18 A+ A+ B B +5 C F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 345 Stonehill W 96 - 57 100% +18  100% 4 - 0 A+ +23 A+ +18 A+ C B B +5 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 20 St. John's W 83 - 82 65% +2  64% 5 - 0 A +19 A+ +19 C+ A+ A C -0 A- D+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 60 Creighton W 78 - 60 88% +10  91% 6 - 0 A+ +27 B+ +7 C A+ A- A+ +20 B A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 70 Syracuse W 95 - 64 89% +11  78% 7 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +20 A+ C- A+ A+ +18 A A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 349 Alcorn St. W 132 - 68 100% +36  94% 8 - 0 A+ +48 A+ +31 A+ A+ C+ A- +8 F C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 8 @Purdue W 81 - 58 39% +9  73% 9 - 0 A+ +47 A+ +21 A+ C C A+ +29 A+ A- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 26 Iowa W 66 - 62 80% -1  47% 10 - 0 A- +17 B- +5 C+ C A+ A+ +12 C+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 14 320 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 53 100% +15  76% 11 - 0 B+ +12 C -0 C D B A+ +12 B B- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 264 Long Beach St. W 91 - 60 99% +29  99% 12 - 0 A +22 B+ +8 A B+ B- A+ +13 B+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 294 Houston Christian W 89 - 61 99% +12  94% 13 - 0 A- +17 A +13 F+ A+ A B+ +6 C- A B+
 Fri, Jan 2 55 West Virginia W 80 - 59 91% +10  72% 14 - 0 1 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +24 A+ A C+ A- +7 B+ B+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 47 @Baylor W 70 - 60 76% +3  50% 15 - 0 2 - 0 A+ +24 C +0 D B+ C A+ +24 A+ D- A
 Sat, Jan 10 62 Oklahoma St. W 83 - 71 92% +3  61% 16 - 0 3 - 0 A +18 B +6 C B A A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 15 @Kansas L 63 - 84 49% -15  0% 16 - 1 3 - 1 C +1 B- +5 B+ C F+ D -6 F A C
 Sat, Jan 17 46 @Cincinnati L 70 - 79 75% -7  13% 16 - 2 3 - 2 B- +5 A- +11 B- A B- D -6 C- C- F+
 Tue, Jan 20 52 Central Florida W 87 - 57 90% +15  96% 17 - 2 4 - 2 A+ +38 A+ +19 B+ A+ A+ A+ +21 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 62 @Oklahoma St. W 84 - 71 82% +18  99% 18 - 2 5 - 2 A+ +25 A +13 A- A+ F A+ +12 B+ B+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 72 Colorado W 97 - 67 93% +22  95% 19 - 2 6 - 2 A+ +35 A+ +25 A+ A+ B+ A+ +11 A- A+ C+
 Sun, Feb 1 92 @Kansas St. W 95 - 61 88% +23  96% 20 - 2 7 - 2 A+ +43 A+ +22 A+ C B A+ +20 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 47 Baylor W 72 - 69 89% +4  75% 21 - 2 8 - 2 B+ +11 B +7 A+ C+ F B +5 A F C
 Tue, Feb 10 50 @TCU L 55 - 62 77% +1  62% 21 - 3 8 - 3 B- +7 F -11 D- B- F A+ +17 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 15 Kansas W 74 - 56 71% +9  75% 22 - 3 9 - 3 A+ +34 A+ +16 A A+ A+ A+ +20 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Feb 16 6 Houston W 70 - 67 58% -0  46% 23 - 3 10 - 3 A +22 A+ +18 A+ D+ A+ B+ +5 B C+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 21 @BYU W 80 - 79 55%
 Tue, Feb 24 102 @Utah W 82 - 68 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 18 Texas Tech W 77 - 71 72%
 Mon, Mar 2 3 @Arizona L 74 - 79 31%
 Sat, Mar 7 63 Arizona St. W 84 - 68 93%
Totals 26 - 5 13 - 5 +22 A- +10 B+ A C+ A +11 A+ D- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A C A+ A 41% 32% 40% C+ A A- B- A- B B- D- C A C+ B+ B+ B+ 28% 26% 46% A- B+ B+ C B- A+ B+ B- B+
1.23 69% 38% 42% +9 0 1.21 39% 1.1 .42 14% .33 67% .22 0.92 56% 33% 30% -4 -1 0.90 26% 1.0 .27 23% .24 70% .23
Nov
3		 Fairleigh Dickinson B- A+ F+ A+ A+ 34% 27% 39% D- A+ C- F F B+ F F+ F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 24% 54% A- A+ A+ F C+ A+ D A+ C
1.25 85% 31% 52% +18 -1 1.36 26% 0.3 .09 13% .15 67% .10 0.71 60% 18% 20% -16 -2 0.67 20% 1.4 .28 25% .32 59% .19
Nov
6		 Grambling St. A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% B- A A C A- B+ A+ F B A C- B- B C 42% 36% 22% A C+ A+ F B+ A F B D-
1.36 64% 60% 42% +11 +2 1.26 44% 1.1 .47 16% .46 62% .29 0.83 58% 31% 30% -4 -2 0.91 16% 1.2 .19 25% .41 70% .29
Nov
10		 Mississippi St. A+ A- A+ F+ A 51% 15% 35% A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B A+ B- A+ B B F D+ C 33% 16% 51% D C F D- F A+ C F D+
1.27 64% 63% 26% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.1 .46 12% .37 76% .28 1.06 56% 50% 36% +3 0 1.08 48% 1.1 .55 34% .28 79% .22
Nov
17		 Stonehill A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 42% 23% 36% C- A+ C+ D+ C B A+ F A+ B F D+ F+ F 14% 39% 47% A+ F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.36 73% 67% 37% +14 0 1.30 30% 1.0 .30 10% .47 63% .30 0.81 71% 40% 38% +5 -4 1.04 19% 0.5 .09 28% .04 50% .02
Nov
24		 St. John's A+ F+ F A+ C+ 43% 24% 33% C C+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A A+ C B+ A+ C- A- 46% 19% 35% B- A- D C D+ C+ F D F
1.21 43% 25% 44% -5 0 0.92 45% 1.3 .58 16% .43 80% .35 1.20 50% 22% 35% -6 +1 0.92 42% 1.2 .50 15% .51 77% .39
Nov
25		 Creighton B+ C D D C- 52% 24% 24% B+ C A- A+ A+ A- B- D- C A+ A+ F D- B+ 32% 16% 52% C B C- A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.15 57% 31% 31% -3 +1 0.96 36% 1.5 .53 12% .23 64% .15 0.88 44% 50% 38% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.4 .11 25% .22 55% .12
Nov
26		 Syracuse A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 56% 11% 33% A A+ C- C- C- A+ B F+ C+ A+ C A+ B A 37% 12% 51% D+ A C- A+ A+ A+ C- B- C
1.32 70% 50% 44% +13 +2 1.33 30% 1.1 .33 13% .33 67% .22 0.89 61% 17% 32% -3 +1 0.98 33% 0.6 .19 26% .36 63% .23
Dec
3		 Alcorn St. A+ A- F A+ A+ 44% 9% 47% B- A+ A A+ A+ C+ B- C+ B- A- F A F F 30% 34% 36% A F C+ C+ C+ A+ A- B- B+
1.64 72% 20% 74% +33 +2 1.72 48% 2.0 .95 17% .36 75% .27 0.85 80% 24% 44% +7 -2 1.12 24% 0.9 .21 34% .17 67% .11
Dec
6		 Purdue A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 36% 40% D- A+ A+ F C C F C F+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 31% 35% 33% A A+ D A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+
1.24 75% 61% 50% +22 -3 1.40 38% 0.6 .24 18% .11 67% .08 0.89 80% 29% 13% -7 -2 0.83 42% 0.9 .36 23% .28 43% .12
Dec
11		 Iowa B- B- F C+ C+ 44% 21% 35% C+ C+ B F+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ C F D+ 34% 36% 30% A+ C+ B D+ C A+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 22% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .24 15% .44 74% .32 1.01 67% 44% 46% +10 -2 1.18 31% 1.1 .35 26% .11 60% .07
Dec
14		 Eastern Illinois C A+ A F C 42% 17% 42% C C C F+ D B A+ D+ A+ A+ A A C+ B- 29% 33% 39% B B B- C+ B- A+ B C B
1.11 75% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.9 .31 17% .46 74% .34 0.75 43% 25% 32% -10 -2 0.78 23% 1.0 .23 26% .23 75% .17
Dec
21		 Long Beach St. B+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 31% 35% F+ A A C- B+ B- F+ F F A+ F D+ A+ B+ 28% 35% 37% B+ B+ A A+ A+ B- A+ B A+
1.24 74% 29% 53% +12 -2 1.24 38% 1.2 .44 16% .29 44% .13 0.81 75% 40% 14% -5 -3 0.86 18% 0.6 .10 19% .17 70% .12
Dec
29		 Houston Christian A A+ F F D- 41% 25% 34% D- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ B+ F C- B+ F+ 19% 45% 36% A+ C- A+ F A B+ D F F
1.34 83% 9% 27% -1 0 1.00 53% 1.4 .75 14% .66 71% .47 0.92 89% 38% 29% +3 -4 1.00 10% 1.3 .13 21% .32 82% .27
Jan
2		 West Virginia A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 30% 23% 47% D+ A+ A+ D+ A C+ B+ F C A- F A+ A+ B+ 31% 18% 51% B B+ A+ D- B+ A- A F C+
1.32 85% 30% 55% +21 -1 1.42 43% 0.9 .39 18% .30 60% .18 0.98 71% 25% 26% -4 0 0.93 23% 1.3 .30 20% .25 83% .21
Jan
7		 Baylor C A+ C- F D+ 18% 53% 29% F D A C B+ C A F C+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 15% 38% 48% A+ A+ D D+ D- A F A+ F
1.01 78% 38% 21% -2 -6 0.88 38% 0.9 .36 17% .35 60% .21 0.87 57% 17% 13% -23 -4 0.48 43% 1.2 .51 20% .53 59% .31
Jan
10		 Oklahoma St. B B- F B- C+ 44% 28% 28% D C C A+ B A A+ A A+ A+ C- B+ C- C+ 32% 21% 47% A+ B A+ F A+ A+ F F+ F
1.14 59% 29% 36% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.3 .38 14% .48 80% .38 0.98 60% 30% 36% +1 -1 1.02 10% 1.3 .13 21% .45 81% .36
Jan
13		 Kansas B- C- F B B- 46% 10% 44% A+ B+ A+ F C F+ C F D+ D B- F F F 38% 19% 42% D+ F D- A+ A C A+ F+ A
0.97 50% 0% 35% -7 +2 0.92 40% 0.5 .21 18% .21 55% .11 1.29 60% 60% 45% +12 0 1.27 37% 0.8 .30 14% .21 83% .18
Jan
17		 Cincinnati A- F+ F A+ C+ 44% 16% 40% A- B- A- A- A B- A+ D- A+ D C- F C D 24% 27% 49% A C- F A- C- F+ A- F+ B
1.06 42% 29% 41% -4 +1 0.95 31% 1.3 .40 18% .50 63% .31 1.19 62% 53% 33% +5 -2 1.07 42% 0.9 .36 12% .21 75% .15
Jan
20		 Central Florida A+ A- F C- B- 51% 8% 42% A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B F D+ A+ B C- A+ A+ 22% 20% 57% B+ A+ C+ C- C A+ A+ F A+
1.33 67% 25% 32% +2 +3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 8% .35 57% .20 0.87 55% 40% 21% -11 -1 0.78 36% 1.2 .44 29% .13 83% .11
Jan
24		 Oklahoma St. A C- A+ B+ B+ 41% 7% 51% B+ A- A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ A+ B C- C B 33% 17% 50% A B+ C+ A B+ A D- D F+
1.19 53% 67% 38% +3 +2 1.12 41% 1.6 .67 26% .52 78% .40 1.01 53% 38% 35% -1 0 1.00 31% 0.8 .25 20% .41 78% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Colorado A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 24% 40% C A+ A- A A+ B+ A+ C- A A+ F A+ A A- 31% 24% 45% A- A- A+ D+ A+ C+ C C+ C+
1.42 83% 42% 50% +20 -1 1.40 35% 1.3 .46 13% .41 71% .29 0.98 80% 25% 27% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.0 .15 15% .33 74% .24
Feb
1		 Kansas St. A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% C A+ B F+ C B B B B+ A+ B+ D+ B A- 25% 34% 42% A+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ A- A+
1.33 71% 40% 57% +20 0 1.42 38% 1.0 .38 17% .34 75% .25 0.86 54% 39% 32% -2 -3 0.92 22% 1.0 .22 20% .10 67% .07
Feb
7		 Baylor B A+ C+ D- A 33% 28% 40% A- A+ A+ F C+ F A+ F A- B F A- A- A+ 17% 25% 58% C+ A A+ F F C A+ A A+
1.15 93% 42% 29% +10 -1 1.19 45% 0.6 .29 22% .39 63% .25 1.10 75% 33% 29% -3 -2 0.92 26% 2.6 .68 14% .17 67% .11
Feb
10		 TCU F A F F F 45% 10% 45% A D- C A B- F F F F A+ A+ C B A+ 48% 17% 35% D+ A+ B F D+ A+ F A- D
0.80 68% 0% 18% -10 +2 0.86 26% 1.2 .31 25% .16 25% .04 0.91 41% 38% 31% -10 +1 0.85 31% 1.3 .41 22% .43 65% .28
Feb
14		 Kansas A+ C+ A- B A+ 27% 25% 48% C- A B+ A+ A+ A+ A F B- A+ B+ A+ C A+ 21% 40% 40% A+ A+ B- C+ B- A+ C+ D+ C+
1.17 54% 42% 35% 0 -1 1.00 31% 1.5 .49 10% .30 53% .16 0.89 56% 18% 35% -8 -4 0.79 30% 1.2 .36 21% .30 80% .24
Feb
16		 Houston A+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% B A+ D+ C- D+ A+ A- F D+ B+ C+ C- C B 16% 24% 59% C B A+ F C+ C B A+ A
1.20 67% 44% 40% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 5% .40 50% .20 1.15 63% 42% 34% +2 -2 1.02 28% 1.3 .38 12% .21 64% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.8 8.4 11.2 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 21.6 2.7 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 21.0 12.6 34.8 3rd
4th 0.1 5.9 11.9 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 6.9 1.1 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 2.1 14.0 35.9 36.9 11.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 75.7% 8.4    1.7 5.4 1.3
14-4 7.5% 2.8    0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.1
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 11.2% 11.2 1.7 5.8 2.6 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 11.1% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.5 5.9 4.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 36.9% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 2.0 9.7 18.6 7.5 1.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 35.9% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 2.5 4.0 14.1 13.0 4.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.0% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 3.2 0.4 2.7 5.4 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.1% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.1% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.4 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 1.3 72.1 27.4 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7% 100.0% 1.5 54.1 41.9 3.9 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5% 100.0% 1.7 42.6 48.8 8.2 0.4