Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#58
Expected Predictive Rating+20.2#3
Pace72.3#93
Improvement+2.4#35

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#108
First Shot+2.1#114
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#188
Layup/Dunks+1.3#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#195
Freethrows-0.4#202
Improvement+2.7#22

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#42
First Shot+5.3#40
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#132
Layups/Dunks+8.2#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#108
Freethrows-3.7#327
Improvement-0.2#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 3.1% 5.2% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 11.4% 17.5% 7.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.7% 55.0% 34.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.9% 54.2% 34.1%
Average Seed 8.2 7.9 8.5
.500 or above 86.1% 94.2% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 22.7% 27.8% 19.5%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 22.1% 17.6% 25.0%
First Four6.9% 8.0% 6.1%
First Round38.9% 50.6% 31.3%
Second Round18.2% 24.6% 14.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 8.4% 4.2%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.8% 1.4%
Final Four0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 24 - 29 - 13
Quad 32 - 011 - 13
Quad 48 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 283   Kennesaw St. W 84-73 94%     1 - 0 +1.5 -4.8 +4.8
  Nov 12, 2021 149   Oregon St. W 60-50 82%     2 - 0 +8.4 -15.5 +23.6
  Nov 16, 2021 344   Alabama St. W 68-60 98%     3 - 0 -8.5 -14.4 +5.5
  Nov 21, 2021 320   Grambling St. W 82-47 96%     4 - 0 +22.6 +11.5 +13.9
  Nov 24, 2021 35   Xavier W 82-70 37%     5 - 0 +23.5 +15.2 +8.2
  Nov 26, 2021 34   Memphis W 78-59 36%     6 - 0 +30.8 +10.0 +20.1
  Dec 01, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-64 99%     7 - 0 -3.5 +1.6 -4.8
  Dec 04, 2021 75   @ Creighton W 64-58 43%     8 - 0 +15.9 -0.1 +16.3
  Dec 09, 2021 20   Iowa L 77-80 39%    
  Dec 12, 2021 244   Jackson St. W 72-57 93%    
  Dec 19, 2021 315   SE Louisiana W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 21, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 83-55 99%    
  Jan 01, 2022 3   Baylor L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 05, 2022 19   Texas Tech L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 08, 2022 29   @ Oklahoma L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 11, 2022 6   @ Kansas L 68-81 12%    
  Jan 15, 2022 12   Texas L 63-68 33%    
  Jan 18, 2022 19   @ Texas Tech L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 22, 2022 91   TCU W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 26, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 158   Missouri W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 01, 2022 6   Kansas L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 12   @ Texas L 60-71 17%    
  Feb 08, 2022 43   @ West Virginia L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 12, 2022 64   Kansas St. W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 15, 2022 91   @ TCU L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 19, 2022 29   Oklahoma L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 23, 2022 43   West Virginia W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 26, 2022 64   @ Kansas St. L 64-66 41%    
  Mar 02, 2022 40   Oklahoma St. W 69-68 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 64-78 12%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.4 2.0 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.5 1.8 0.2 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.7 2.4 0.3 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.8 6.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 17.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.8 5.8 2.2 0.3 17.0 9th
10th 0.3 1.2 3.4 4.6 3.3 1.1 0.1 14.1 10th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.8 7.2 10.6 13.6 14.7 13.9 11.9 9.4 6.2 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 89.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 60.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.4% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.0% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.9% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.7% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 6.2% 99.2% 3.4% 95.8% 6.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
9-9 9.4% 96.6% 2.7% 94.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 96.5%
8-10 11.9% 82.1% 1.5% 80.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.4 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.1 81.8%
7-11 13.9% 51.9% 1.1% 50.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 6.7 51.4%
6-12 14.7% 19.7% 0.3% 19.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.8 19.5%
5-13 13.6% 3.4% 0.2% 3.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 13.2 3.2%
4-14 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.1%
3-15 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 7.2 0.0%
2-16 3.8% 3.8
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 42.7% 1.4% 41.4% 8.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.7 3.3 5.0 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.2 6.0 3.1 0.2 0.0 57.3 41.9%