Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#295
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#205
Pace70.8#139
Improvement+1.1#80

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#301
First Shot-4.5#300
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#203
Layup/Dunks-1.7#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#313
Freethrows+0.6#146
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#254
First Shot-1.2#217
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#259
Layups/Dunks-5.9#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#15
Freethrows-2.8#314
Improvement+1.0#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 14.1% 21.7% 8.7%
.500 or above in Conference 26.8% 39.0% 18.1%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 4.5% 13.2%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 41.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 48 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 56   @ Utah L 56-89 5%     0 - 1 -22.0 -13.9 -6.6
  Nov 15, 2021 314   @ Cal Poly W 58-57 44%     1 - 1 -4.7 -6.9 +2.4
  Nov 20, 2021 193   UC San Diego L 56-71 39%     1 - 2 -19.4 -18.1 -1.2
  Nov 23, 2021 211   UC Davis W 75-63 31%     2 - 2 +9.9 -4.9 +13.6
  Nov 27, 2021 5   @ Arizona L 59-105 1%     2 - 3 -25.0 -10.6 -8.2
  Dec 02, 2021 205   Montana L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 04, 2021 184   Montana St. L 71-74 38%    
  Dec 11, 2021 127   @ Oregon St. L 60-73 12%    
  Dec 19, 2021 138   @ UC Riverside L 59-71 13%    
  Dec 30, 2021 139   @ Southern Utah L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 08, 2022 179   @ Northern Colorado L 67-77 19%    
  Jan 10, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona L 70-71 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 272   Portland St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 20, 2022 203   @ Eastern Washington L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 22, 2022 349   @ Idaho W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 27, 2022 309   Idaho St. W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 98   Weber St. L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 03, 2022 317   Northern Arizona W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 272   @ Portland St. L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 10, 2022 179   Northern Colorado L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 12, 2022 139   Southern Utah L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 17, 2022 98   @ Weber St. L 64-80 9%    
  Feb 19, 2022 309   @ Idaho St. L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 24, 2022 349   Idaho W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 26, 2022 203   Eastern Washington L 74-76 42%    
  Mar 03, 2022 184   @ Montana St. L 68-77 21%    
  Mar 05, 2022 205   @ Montana L 64-72 23%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.4 4.5 1.4 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.3 5.5 1.6 0.1 15.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.6 6.7 4.5 1.7 0.1 17.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.5 6.3 3.9 1.0 0.1 17.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.5 4.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 5.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.7 6.9 9.9 12.2 13.5 12.0 12.5 9.7 6.5 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 88.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 60.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 37.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.1
14-6 10.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 10.0% 10.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 0.8% 12.3% 12.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-6 1.5% 8.7% 8.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-7 3.0% 6.0% 6.0% 15.7 0.1 0.1 2.8
12-8 4.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
11-9 6.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.1 0.1 6.4
10-10 9.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.6
9-11 12.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.4
8-12 12.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.9
7-13 13.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.4
6-14 12.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.2
5-15 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-16 6.9% 6.9
3-17 3.7% 3.7
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 98.9 0.0%