Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#320
Expected Predictive Rating-15.5#354
Pace62.0#338
Improvement-3.1#343

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#340
First Shot-4.9#308
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#267
Layup/Dunks-3.1#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#76
Freethrows-2.8#318
Improvement-0.4#218

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#258
First Shot-1.7#228
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#247
Layups/Dunks+4.2#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#328
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement-2.7#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.4% 3.6% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 15.1% 18.1% 11.3%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 39.1% 34.6% 44.6%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 0.8%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 118 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 255   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 26%     0 - 1 -9.2 -12.8 +3.5
  Nov 12, 2024 102   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 7%     0 - 2 -2.4 -9.2 +5.6
  Nov 16, 2024 155   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 27%     0 - 3 -12.7 -3.4 -9.3
  Nov 24, 2024 109   @ California L 77-83 8%     0 - 4 +0.8 +4.1 -3.2
  Nov 27, 2024 286   @ Air Force W 63-61 30%     1 - 4 -1.5 -6.5 +5.2
  Nov 30, 2024 361   Mercyhurst L 60-66 80%     1 - 5 -23.7 -12.6 -11.9
  Dec 04, 2024 321   @ Denver L 59-80 39%     1 - 6 -27.0 -11.0 -18.2
  Dec 07, 2024 306   Nebraska Omaha W 67-66 55%    
  Dec 14, 2024 204   UC Davis L 64-68 36%    
  Dec 17, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 55-74 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 256   Portland St. L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 265   Idaho L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 239   Eastern Washington L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 301   @ Northern Arizona L 64-69 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 65-76 16%    
  Jan 23, 2025 252   Idaho St. L 62-63 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 210   Weber St. L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 30, 2025 122   @ Montana St. L 59-73 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 190   @ Montana L 62-73 17%    
  Feb 06, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington L 67-75 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 265   @ Idaho L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 13, 2025 180   Northern Colorado L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 301   Northern Arizona W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 20, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 60-70 20%    
  Feb 22, 2025 252   @ Idaho St. L 59-66 27%    
  Feb 27, 2025 190   Montana L 65-70 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 122   Montana St. L 62-70 23%    
  Mar 03, 2025 256   @ Portland St. L 67-74 29%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.4 1.6 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 4.2 6.8 3.3 0.3 0.0 15.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.9 7.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 20.1 9th
10th 0.9 2.8 6.5 8.2 6.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 28.3 10th
Total 0.9 2.8 6.8 10.4 13.5 14.8 14.1 12.0 9.4 6.4 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 95.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 79.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 36.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 14.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 21.7% 21.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.6% 7.3% 7.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.2% 8.5% 8.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.1
11-7 2.3% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.1 2.2
10-8 4.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.0
9-9 6.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 6.2
8-10 9.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 9.2
7-11 12.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.0
6-12 14.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.0
5-13 14.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 14.8
4-14 13.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.5
3-15 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
2-16 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%