Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#281
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#301
Pace76.1#39
Improvement-0.6#221

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#284
First Shot-7.0#348
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#34
Layup/Dunks-1.2#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#353
Freethrows+2.3#58
Improvement-0.9#252

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#249
First Shot-0.7#202
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#294
Layups/Dunks-1.0#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#209
Freethrows+0.2#159
Improvement+0.3#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.6% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 4.6% 13.2% 3.2%
.500 or above in Conference 22.6% 35.1% 20.6%
Conference Champion 2.0% 4.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 33.6% 23.2% 35.3%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
First Round1.7% 3.0% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 92 - 14
Quad 46 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 159 UC Santa Barbara L 87-92 37%     0 - 1 -8.0 +5.8 -13.5
  Fri, Nov 14 197 @UC Davis L 73-77 25%     0 - 2 -3.4 -0.6 -2.6
  Sun, Nov 16 277 Presbyterian W 64-62 61%     1 - 2 -7.3 -8.0 +0.7
  Tue, Nov 18 30 @UCLA L 48-79 2%     1 - 3 -13.8 -18.3 +4.9
  Fri, Nov 21 80 @California L 67-91 7%     1 - 4 -13.9 -6.0 -6.2
  Sat, Nov 29 138 @Pacific L 54-68 16%     1 - 5 -9.7 -16.7 +7.1
  Tue, Dec 2 32 @Baylor L 88-110 3%     1 - 6 -5.5 +13.2 -16.9
  Sat, Dec 20 127 @California Baptist L 68-80 14%    
  Mon, Dec 22 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 79-85 29%    
  Thu, Jan 1 161 @Idaho St. L 67-76 19%    
  Sat, Jan 3 215 @Weber St. L 75-81 29%    
  Sat, Jan 10 176 @Portland St. L 70-78 22%    
  Thu, Jan 15 271 Northern Arizona W 75-73 59%    
  Sat, Jan 17 151 Northern Colorado L 76-80 36%    
  Thu, Jan 22 168 @Idaho L 72-81 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 250 @Eastern Washington L 78-82 35%    
  Thu, Jan 29 169 Montana St. L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 204 Montana L 79-80 48%    
  Mon, Feb 2 215 Weber St. L 77-78 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 176 Portland St. L 73-75 42%    
  Thu, Feb 12 151 @Northern Colorado L 73-83 18%    
  Sat, Feb 14 271 @Northern Arizona L 72-76 37%    
  Thu, Feb 19 250 Eastern Washington W 81-79 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 168 Idaho L 75-78 40%    
  Thu, Feb 26 204 @Montana L 76-83 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 169 @Montana St. L 69-78 23%    
  Mon, Mar 2 161 Idaho St. L 70-73 38%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.0 2.0 0.2 9.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.2 5.5 3.1 0.2 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 6.2 4.4 0.6 0.0 14.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 6.9 4.6 0.8 0.0 18.4 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 4.4 6.9 6.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 23.6 10th
Total 0.4 2.0 4.6 8.4 11.2 13.1 13.8 12.9 11.1 8.5 6.3 3.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 94.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 85.5% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 51.3% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 22.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 27.3% 27.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.6% 21.8% 21.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.2% 10.3% 10.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.0% 13.3% 13.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.7
11-7 3.9% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 3.6
10-8 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.9
9-9 8.5% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.4 8.1
8-10 11.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 10.8
7-11 12.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.7
6-12 13.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.6
5-13 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.1
4-14 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.2
3-15 8.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.4
2-16 4.6% 4.6
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%