Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#176
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#191
Pace70.2#168
Improvement-1.3#279

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#259
First Shot-1.6#220
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#299
Layup/Dunks+1.3#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#138
Freethrows-1.2#253
Improvement-2.9#357

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#103
First Shot+4.8#44
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#317
Layups/Dunks+0.0#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#16
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#68
Freethrows-0.9#241
Improvement+1.6#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 17.9% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.5 14.4
.500 or above 56.3% 78.4% 53.6%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 78.7% 66.4%
Conference Champion 17.7% 27.3% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 3.1% 7.0%
First Four0.8% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round12.7% 17.9% 12.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 410 - 414 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 90 @Stanford L 79-89 17%     0 - 1 -1.2 +0.9 -0.8
  Wed, Nov 12 94 @San Francisco L 70-80 18%     0 - 2 -1.5 +3.1 -4.8
  Mon, Nov 17 303 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93-80 82%     1 - 2 +2.0 +9.7 -8.4
  Tue, Nov 25 259 @Utah Tech W 68-63 55%     2 - 2 +2.6 -6.0 +8.5
  Wed, Dec 3 283 @South Dakota W 77-71 59%     3 - 2 +2.5 -6.3 +8.2
  Sat, Dec 6 237 Nebraska Omaha L 55-60 72%     3 - 3 -12.3 -11.5 -1.8
  Wed, Dec 17 63 @Colorado L 69-82 11%    
  Sat, Dec 20 183 @Tulane L 72-74 40%    
  Thu, Jan 1 215 @Weber St. L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Jan 3 160 @Idaho St. L 66-70 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 276 Sacramento St. W 78-70 76%    
  Thu, Jan 15 161 Northern Colorado W 73-71 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 258 Northern Arizona W 73-66 74%    
  Thu, Jan 22 236 @Eastern Washington W 75-74 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 177 @Idaho L 70-73 40%    
  Thu, Jan 29 202 Montana W 77-72 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 165 Montana St. W 70-68 59%    
  Mon, Feb 2 160 Idaho St. W 69-67 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 276 @Sacramento St. W 75-73 56%    
  Thu, Feb 12 258 @Northern Arizona W 70-69 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 161 @Northern Colorado L 70-74 36%    
  Thu, Feb 19 177 Idaho W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 236 Eastern Washington W 78-72 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 165 @Montana St. L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Feb 28 202 @Montana L 74-75 45%    
  Mon, Mar 2 215 Weber St. W 75-70 67%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 17.7 1st
2nd 0.6 3.8 5.5 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 5.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 5.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.5 2.6 0.3 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 4.6 2.9 0.2 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.7 6.0 8.4 10.5 12.3 12.6 12.3 10.9 8.2 5.9 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 99.4% 1.7    1.7 0.0
15-3 94.0% 3.0    2.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 81.1% 4.8    3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 54.5% 4.5    2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0
12-6 22.9% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 11.1 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 75.0% 75.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 45.9% 45.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 39.8% 39.8% 12.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.2% 36.8% 36.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 2.0
14-4 5.9% 30.6% 30.6% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.1
13-5 8.2% 24.9% 24.9% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 6.2
12-6 10.9% 19.8% 19.8% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 8.7
11-7 12.3% 13.8% 13.8% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.1 10.6
10-8 12.6% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 11.2
9-9 12.3% 7.2% 7.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 11.4
8-10 10.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.0
7-11 8.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.2
6-12 6.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 3.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.7
4-14 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 4.1 1.6 87.0 0.0%