Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#272
Expected Predictive Rating-15.4#342
Pace72.1#97
Improvement-0.8#248

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#302
First Shot-4.0#290
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#242
Layup/Dunks+4.8#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.0#358
Freethrows+1.0#110
Improvement-1.8#327

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#214
First Shot+3.8#64
After Offensive Rebounds-4.9#354
Layups/Dunks-4.2#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#21
Freethrows+3.5#12
Improvement+1.1#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.7% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 17.7% 27.0% 9.8%
.500 or above in Conference 37.3% 50.8% 25.8%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 2.8% 11.4%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round1.7% 2.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 49 - 710 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 127   @ Oregon St. L 64-73 14%     0 - 1 -3.5 -9.4 +6.4
  Nov 23, 2021 255   Portland L 54-69 57%     0 - 2 -22.9 -23.7 +1.3
  Nov 26, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 51-85 2%     0 - 3 -16.4 -22.5 +8.7
  Dec 02, 2021 309   @ Idaho St. L 65-66 46%    
  Dec 04, 2021 98   @ Weber St. L 65-79 9%    
  Dec 11, 2021 314   Cal Poly W 68-62 71%    
  Dec 18, 2021 273   @ Cal St. Northridge L 65-68 39%    
  Dec 21, 2021 46   @ Utah St. L 61-80 4%    
  Dec 30, 2021 203   Eastern Washington L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 01, 2022 349   Idaho W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 06, 2022 139   @ Southern Utah L 67-78 16%    
  Jan 10, 2022 179   Northern Colorado L 71-73 41%    
  Jan 15, 2022 295   @ Sacramento St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 20, 2022 205   Montana L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 22, 2022 184   Montana St. L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 27, 2022 139   Southern Utah L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 03, 2022 179   @ Northern Colorado L 68-76 23%    
  Feb 05, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 10, 2022 184   @ Montana St. L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 12, 2022 205   @ Montana L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 17, 2022 317   Northern Arizona W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 24, 2022 98   Weber St. L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 309   Idaho St. W 68-63 67%    
  Mar 03, 2022 349   @ Idaho W 76-70 69%    
  Mar 05, 2022 203   @ Eastern Washington L 71-78 27%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.1 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 4.3 5.2 1.7 0.2 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.5 5.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 3.1 5.6 4.3 1.3 0.2 15.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.7 4.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 13.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.7 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.1 4.7 7.8 9.6 11.5 12.2 12.0 10.8 8.5 7.2 4.9 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 65.6% 0.2    0.2 0.1
16-4 58.9% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 23.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 15.6% 15.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 0.7% 13.7% 13.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 1.7% 13.9% 13.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
14-6 3.0% 8.7% 8.7% 15.4 0.2 0.1 2.7
13-7 4.9% 6.9% 6.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.6
12-8 7.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.1 0.4 6.8
11-9 8.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.3
10-10 10.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 10.6
9-11 12.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 11.8
8-12 12.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.1
7-13 11.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.5
6-14 9.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.6
5-15 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-16 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 97.9 0.0%