Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#96
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#47
Pace73.8#70
Improvement-0.1#186

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#101
First Shot+4.2#64
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#282
Layup/Dunks-1.0#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#86
Freethrows+1.7#77
Improvement+0.1#171

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#88
First Shot+0.9#147
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#76
Layups/Dunks-6.7#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#221
Freethrows+5.3#2
Improvement-0.2#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.1% 47.3% 39.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 4.1% 0.7%
Average Seed 12.8 12.1 13.1
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 99.3%
Conference Champion 58.2% 65.3% 55.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 1.6% 0.4%
First Round40.8% 46.4% 38.9%
Second Round8.0% 11.1% 6.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 3.0% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 37 - 38 - 5
Quad 416 - 225 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 212   @ Duquesne W 63-59 66%     1 - 0 +5.1 -10.4 +15.4
  Nov 18, 2021 119   Massachusetts W 88-73 58%     2 - 0 +18.3 +14.9 +4.1
  Nov 19, 2021 226   Ball St. W 85-74 78%     3 - 0 +8.3 +1.7 +5.7
  Nov 21, 2021 312   Green Bay W 68-58 90%     4 - 0 +1.2 -5.5 +7.4
  Nov 27, 2021 305   @ Dixie St. W 87-70 83%     5 - 0 +11.9 +5.0 +5.9
  Dec 02, 2021 310   Northern Arizona W 67-44 93%     6 - 0 1 - 0 +11.3 -16.6 +26.6
  Dec 04, 2021 260   Portland St. W 80-69 89%     7 - 0 2 - 0 +2.9 +2.6 -0.2
  Dec 08, 2021 49   @ Washington St. L 67-74 25%    
  Dec 15, 2021 50   Utah St. L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 18, 2021 27   BYU L 69-74 33%    
  Dec 23, 2021 112   Fresno St. W 68-63 66%    
  Dec 30, 2021 192   @ Montana St. W 75-72 63%    
  Jan 01, 2022 209   @ Montana W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 322   @ Idaho St. W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 13, 2022 345   Idaho W 87-65 98%    
  Jan 15, 2022 222   Eastern Washington W 84-73 84%    
  Jan 20, 2022 322   Idaho St. W 76-58 95%    
  Jan 24, 2022 133   @ Southern Utah L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 27, 2022 184   @ Northern Colorado W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 295   @ Sacramento St. W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 03, 2022 209   Montana W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 192   Montana St. W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 10, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 345   @ Idaho W 84-68 92%    
  Feb 17, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 79-63 92%    
  Feb 19, 2022 184   Northern Colorado W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 24, 2022 260   @ Portland St. W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 310   @ Northern Arizona W 78-67 83%    
  Mar 05, 2022 133   Southern Utah W 79-73 70%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 4.4 10.4 15.2 14.8 9.1 3.3 58.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.5 7.6 6.2 2.5 0.4 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 6.5 10.0 14.1 16.9 17.7 15.2 9.1 3.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.3    3.3
19-1 100.0% 9.1    9.0 0.1
18-2 97.4% 14.8    13.5 1.2
17-3 86.0% 15.2    11.9 3.2 0.1
16-4 61.3% 10.4    6.0 3.8 0.6 0.0
15-5 31.5% 4.4    1.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 58.2% 58.2 45.5 10.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.3% 77.4% 67.9% 9.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.7 29.5%
19-1 9.1% 63.1% 59.4% 3.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.4 9.0%
18-2 15.2% 54.2% 52.9% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 6.9 2.8%
17-3 17.7% 47.9% 47.6% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.8 1.8 0.2 9.2 0.4%
16-4 16.9% 38.7% 38.6% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 1.0 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.4 0.1%
15-5 14.1% 33.6% 33.6% 13.7 0.4 1.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 9.3
14-6 10.0% 25.8% 25.8% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.1 7.4
13-7 6.5% 20.3% 20.3% 14.5 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 5.2
12-8 3.7% 17.1% 17.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.1
11-9 2.0% 11.4% 11.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
10-10 1.0% 10.8% 10.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
9-11 0.4% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-12 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 41.1% 40.3% 0.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 2.7 10.1 13.6 9.2 3.3 0.4 58.9 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.5 0.9 3.5 25.2 19.1 29.6 11.3 6.1 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 65.0% 8.2 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 10.0