UCLA
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.4 39
Expected Predictive Rating +13.4 44
Pace 63.6 316
Improvement +0.5 167

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 43 B B+ B+ B D-
Defense B 44 B B- B+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 285 B 63% 70 -0.3 189
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 86 C+ 39% 130 +3.6 35
Three Pointers 36% 282 A 40% 8 +0.8 147
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.3 329 B+ +5.4 33
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 68
Second Chance B- 33.5% 92 B+ 1.17 33 B+ 0.39 45
Turnovers B+ 13.9% 30
Freethrows B- 0.33 96 B 76% 56 B 0.25 64
Total Offense B+ +7.7 43

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 56% 58 B- 9.1% 81
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 30 B 2.9% 49
Three Pointers B 89% 68 B+ 0.2% 32
Total B 62% 59 B+ 4.1% 32

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 332 C 58% 181 -3.9 58
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 150 C- 39% 224 +0.5 224
Three Pointers 47% 34 A- 29% 22 -0.3 163
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 81 B -3.1 65
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 59
Second Chance C+ 28.9% 122 B 0.93 53 B- 0.27 71
Turnovers B+ 19.7% 37
Freethrows C+ 0.29 133 C- 73% 214 C+ 0.21 143
Total Defense B +5.6 44

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 301 C 11.5% 152
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 331 B- 6.9% 70
Three Pointers B- 80% 75 B- 1.4% 81
Total D+ 59% 266 C 5.8% 160

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 151 19.0 357
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 141 0.13 48
Improvement +0.5 #155 +0.0 #193

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 46 38 29
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 13 - 7
Conference Finish 10 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None 10 7
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 3% 7% 1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68% 84% 62%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68% 84% 61%
Average Seed 9.3 8.6 9.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 100% 95%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four14% 7% 17%
First Round61% 81% 54%
Second Round28% 41% 24%
Sweet Sixteen6% 9% 5%
Elite Eight2% 3% 1%
Final Four0% 1% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 26.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 25 - 29 - 13
Quad 34 - 013 - 13
Quad 48 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 201 Eastern Washington W 80 - 74 95% +7  84% 1 - 0 C +1 C- -2 C D+ A B- +2 F A A-
 Fri, Nov 7 276 Pepperdine W 74 - 63 97% +10  87% 2 - 0 C +1 C+ +2 D+ A C C +0 A- F C+
 Mon, Nov 10 318 West Georgia W 83 - 62 98% +11  97% 3 - 0 B +8 B +7 B C+ D B- +3 F B A+
 Fri, Nov 14 3 Arizona L 65 - 69 16% +1  60% 3 - 1 A +20 B- +5 A+ D F A+ +15 A C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 271 Sacramento St. W 79 - 48 97% +19  99% 4 - 1 A +22 D+ -4 D+ A F A+ +25 A+ B B
 Fri, Nov 21 272 Presbyterian W 86 - 46 97% +24  99% 5 - 1 A+ +31 A- +10 A+ A+ C- A+ +22 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 71 California L 72 - 80 70% -2  43% 5 - 2 C +0 C- -1 D+ B+ C+ C+ +1 C- A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 44 @Washington W 82 - 80 45% +3  65% 6 - 2 1 - 0 A- +17 A+ +20 A+ A+ A+ C- -3 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 91 Oregon W 74 - 63 83% +8  92% 7 - 2 2 - 0 B+ +14 A +12 B A B B +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 10 Gonzaga L 72 - 82 28% -2  32% 7 - 3 B +9 A- +11 A+ C A+ C- -2 D+ A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 63 Arizona St. W 90 - 77 76% +9  98% 8 - 3 A +19 A+ +15 A D+ A+ B +3 A+ C C
 Fri, Dec 19 231 Cal Poly W 108 - 87 96% +7  67% 9 - 3 B+ +14 A+ +16 A+ D A+ D+ -4 F C A+
 Tue, Dec 23 279 UC Riverside W 97 - 65 97% +14  88% 10 - 3 A +22 B+ +8 C- A+ B A+ +11 C A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 26 @Iowa L 61 - 74 31% -10  1% 10 - 4 2 - 1 B- +6 C+ +2 B- F B+ B- +2 D- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 29 @Wisconsin L 72 - 80 33% -12  1% 10 - 5 2 - 2 B +10 C+ +2 C- B+ B A +8 B C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 107 Maryland W 67 - 55 87% +9  80% 11 - 5 3 - 2 B+ +13 D+ -4 F+ C- A+ A+ +17 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 14 115 @Penn St. W 71 - 60 76% +3  72% 12 - 5 4 - 2 A- +17 B+ +8 F+ A+ F A+ +11 B A+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 34 @Ohio St. L 74 - 86 35% -9  0% 12 - 6 4 - 3 B- +5 A +14 B B- A+ F+ -10 B F C+
 Tue, Jan 20 8 Purdue W 69 - 67 31% -2  24% 13 - 6 5 - 3 A +20 A +13 A+ F C+ A- +8 A+ D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 67 Northwestern W 71 - 64 78% +9  90% 14 - 6 6 - 3 B+ +12 B- +4 A C- B A +9 A- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 91 @Oregon W 73 - 57 66% +11  94% 15 - 6 7 - 3 A+ +25 A +12 F+ A+ A+ A+ +15 B+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 37 Indiana L 97 - 98 2OT 60% +0  53% 15 - 7 7 - 4 B +10 B- +5 D+ A+ A B+ +5 A+ C+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 109 Rutgers W 98 - 66 88% +14  92% 16 - 7 8 - 4 A+ +33 A+ +33 A+ A+ A+ B- +3 C- A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 44 Washington W 77 - 73 68% -0  38% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B+ +13 A- +11 C A+ A+ B- +2 C+ D+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 1 @Michigan L 56 - 86 7% -11  0% 17 - 8 9 - 5 C -0 C +1 C- A+ D D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 17 11 @Michigan St. L 59 - 82 20% -17  8% 17 - 9 9 - 6 C -1 C +0 C+ C+ C+ C- -3 F C- A-
 Sat, Feb 21 5 Illinois L 71 - 78 27%
 Tue, Feb 24 53 USC W 78 - 72 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 66 @Minnesota W 68 - 66 56%
 Tue, Mar 3 13 Nebraska L 69 - 72 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 53 @USC W 75 - 74 50%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +13 B+ +8 A+ B+ D- B +6 A B B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B C+ A B+ 35% 46% 36% D- B B- B+ B+ B+ B- B B B C C- A- B 32% 21% 47% B- B C+ B B- B+ C+ C- C+
1.20 63% 39% 40% +5 -1 1.10 33% 1.2 .39 14% .33 76% .25 1.01 58% 39% 29% -3 -1 0.95 29% 0.9 .27 20% .29 73% .24
Nov
3		 Eastern Washington C- B- A- C+ B- 33% 28% 40% F C C D- D+ A F F F B- F D B+ F 38% 15% 48% D F A+ B A A- B A+ A-
1.13 63% 50% 35% +5 -1 1.10 33% 1.0 .33 11% .16 60% .10 1.05 89% 43% 30% +10 +1 1.23 21% 1.0 .21 23% .26 64% .16
Nov
7		 Pepperdine C+ C A+ F D+ 38% 16% 47% D+ D+ A B- A C A+ C+ A+ C B B A+ A+ 35% 13% 52% D- A- F F F C+ B F D
1.18 59% 71% 24% -2 +1 1.00 41% 1.2 .47 16% .49 73% .36 1.00 50% 33% 25% -10 +1 0.83 42% 1.1 .47 19% .26 100% .26
Nov
10		 West Georgia B B- A+ B+ B+ 44% 26% 30% D- B A+ F C+ D A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D F F 18% 32% 50% B F B C+ B A+ B A+ A+
1.27 63% 55% 38% +9 0 1.19 48% 0.7 .33 17% .48 88% .42 0.95 25% 43% 50% +8 -3 1.11 26% 1.0 .26 26% .23 45% .10
Nov
14		 Arizona B- B- C- A+ A+ 18% 51% 31% F A+ B F D F F A- D- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% F A B D- C A+ A C A
0.96 56% 35% 56% +8 -5 1.08 27% 0.4 .12 24% .16 75% .12 1.02 68% 25% 25% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.1 .40 22% .29 73% .21
Nov
18		 Sacramento St. D+ B- C- D- C- 42% 24% 34% D- D+ C A+ A F A+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 28% 47% B A+ C A B B F A+ F
1.12 62% 42% 29% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 21% .43 67% .29 0.68 42% 23% 9% -26 -2 0.47 28% 0.9 .26 18% .52 63% .33
Nov
21		 Presbyterian A- A+ F A+ A+ 61% 15% 24% A- A+ D A+ A+ C- A+ C- A+ A+ F A A+ A+ 26% 33% 41% A A+ A+ A+ A+ A B C+ B-
1.28 75% 29% 45% +13 +2 1.33 26% 1.8 .48 16% .43 67% .28 0.68 75% 27% 11% -14 -2 0.70 23% 0.6 .14 25% .30 67% .20
Nov
25		 California C- C D- D C- 33% 29% 38% F+ D+ B B B+ C+ A F B- C+ A+ B F C- 38% 23% 38% C- C- A A+ A+ D- C- C C
1.02 56% 31% 29% -6 -1 0.87 33% 1.1 .36 16% .39 57% .22 1.13 45% 33% 55% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 11% .35 77% .27
Dec
3		 Washington A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 20% 39% 41% F A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C- F+ F C+ D+ 34% 24% 42% C- D+ F F F A+ B+ C B+
1.26 78% 44% 47% +15 -4 1.24 30% 1.6 .48 11% .41 71% .29 1.23 71% 50% 33% +7 -1 1.14 52% 1.4 .74 23% .24 75% .18
Dec
6		 Oregon A C C A+ A 20% 45% 34% F B A+ C A B A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A- A+ 27% 16% 57% B A+ F D- F C+ F B- F
1.22 56% 40% 47% +7 -4 1.07 47% 0.9 .41 15% .41 86% .35 1.04 33% 29% 28% -13 0 0.75 43% 1.3 .54 18% .48 71% .34
Dec
13		 Gonzaga A- A- B- A+ A+ 30% 38% 32% D- A+ D+ B+ C A+ B+ A+ A C- F C F F+ 28% 41% 30% A+ D+ B- A+ A+ D+ F A F
1.10 64% 39% 47% +8 -3 1.13 20% 1.0 .20 15% .34 79% .27 1.25 85% 42% 43% +13 -3 1.22 34% 0.5 .17 12% .56 63% .35
Dec
17		 Arizona St. A+ F F A+ A+ 31% 24% 44% C- A C D- D+ A+ B+ A A B F F+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% B- A+ C+ D+ C C F+ F F
1.27 41% 23% 58% +7 -1 1.15 31% 0.9 .29 11% .35 82% .29 1.09 72% 45% 9% -10 0 0.81 31% 1.3 .40 16% .43 96% .42
Dec
19		 Cal Poly A+ A D A+ A+ 51% 5% 44% A A+ F A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ F F 34% 2% 64% D+ F C+ C- C A+ F F F
1.37 72% 33% 44% +14 +3 1.35 16% 1.8 .28 10% .41 90% .37 1.11 69% 0% 43% +12 +2 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 31% .40 95% .38
Dec
23		 UC Riverside B+ A- C+ D+ C+ 33% 33% 33% F C- C+ A+ A+ B B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C- A+ C 45% 28% 28% B- C C- A+ A+ A+ F B F
1.24 68% 42% 32% +4 -2 1.05 32% 1.5 .47 13% .38 85% .32 0.83 67% 38% 23% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.1 .03 28% .41 70% .29
Jan
3		 Iowa C+ C A+ F B 40% 33% 27% D- B- A F F B+ F+ F+ F B- F F C- F 16% 26% 58% A+ D- F A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.98 58% 56% 23% +2 -2 1.02 36% 0.3 .12 19% .24 67% .16 1.19 83% 80% 36% +17 -2 1.32 42% 0.5 .19 23% .54 85% .46
Jan
6		 Wisconsin C+ A+ B F C 32% 38% 30% F+ C- C+ A B+ B A+ F+ A- A A+ F C+ B- 27% 17% 56% A- B A+ F C+ C- F B- F+
1.01 82% 45% 6% -2 -3 0.92 26% 1.2 .31 14% .37 65% .24 1.12 46% 75% 33% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.8 .34 11% .43 74% .32
Jan
10		 Maryland D+ C C- F D- 35% 30% 35% F+ F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 23% 48% A- A+ F D- F B A- A+ A+
1.02 56% 36% 25% -6 -2 0.87 15% 1.8 .27 9% .45 67% .30 0.84 50% 18% 9% -25 -1 0.50 45% 1.2 .55 20% .29 60% .17
Jan
14		 Penn St. B+ F F C+ D- 18% 18% 64% D- F+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ D F A+ B+ 36% 17% 48% C+ B A A+ A+ A D+ F F
1.18 43% 29% 36% -2 -1 0.95 42% 1.7 .73 23% .46 100% .46 1.00 67% 71% 20% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.7 .15 20% .35 94% .33
Jan
17		 Ohio St. A A D+ A+ A 17% 47% 36% F B B+ D+ B- A+ B A- A- F+ F D- B+ B- 23% 34% 43% A+ B F F F C+ F F+ F
1.18 67% 36% 42% +5 -5 1.02 36% 0.9 .33 8% .33 79% .26 1.38 82% 50% 30% +7 -3 1.11 48% 1.4 .68 16% .48 84% .40
Jan
20		 Purdue A A+ A- A+ A+ 31% 27% 42% C+ A+ D+ F F C+ F C F A- A+ F A A+ 28% 21% 51% C+ A+ D+ C- D+ B- A+ F A+
1.18 87% 46% 45% +18 -1 1.35 19% 0.5 .10 17% .06 67% .04 1.15 46% 60% 29% -2 -1 0.96 39% 1.2 .48 14% .14 86% .12
Jan
24		 Northwestern B- B A- A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% D- A D- A C- B A+ F C A A- B- C A- 33% 23% 44% B- A- A- A+ A+ B- D+ F F+
1.11 63% 44% 41% +7 -2 1.12 25% 1.1 .28 16% .39 52% .20 1.00 50% 36% 33% -3 -1 0.94 24% 0.6 .15 14% .36 85% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Oregon A C+ F C D 29% 41% 31% F F+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B A- 31% 12% 57% C B+ A A+ A+ C- A+ A A+
1.19 57% 25% 33% -6 -3 0.84 32% 1.6 .51 6% .40 87% .35 0.93 56% 17% 31% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.5 .13 16% .17 67% .12
Jan
31		 Indiana B- F C C D+ 33% 38% 29% D- D+ C A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ C A+ B A+ 33% 16% 51% B+ A+ A+ F C+ D+ F D F
1.09 38% 38% 33% -7 -3 0.83 27% 1.8 .50 11% .43 88% .38 1.11 62% 30% 31% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.6 .31 12% .49 82% .40
Feb
3		 Rutgers A+ A- A- A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A B- B F B- D+ 26% 33% 41% B- C- B A A C- D+ A+ A-
1.55 67% 44% 61% +19 -2 1.35 34% 1.4 .48 3% .29 89% .26 1.05 50% 53% 32% +1 -2 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 14% .37 55% .20
Feb
7		 Washington A- F D- A+ C+ 34% 34% 32% C- C A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C F A- B- 42% 23% 35% D- C+ C- D+ D+ A D A C
1.17 38% 31% 47% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .42 11% .49 79% .39 1.11 60% 55% 29% +2 0 1.06 38% 1.2 .45 20% .34 67% .23
Feb
14		 Michigan C A F F C- 28% 35% 37% C- C- A A+ A+ D C+ F D D+ F F C F 51% 13% 36% C+ F A+ A A+ C- F A D
0.87 62% 19% 24% -12 -3 0.74 36% 1.4 .50 20% .24 50% .12 1.34 83% 50% 35% +15 +2 1.36 30% 1.1 .35 14% .47 65% .31
Feb
17		 Michigan St. C F A- B+ B- 29% 27% 43% D+ C+ B D+ C+ C+ D+ B C- C- F B- F F 23% 29% 48% A- F A+ F C- A- A+ F A
0.90 33% 43% 36% -4 -2 0.90 24% 0.7 .16 17% .22 75% .17 1.25 73% 36% 52% +16 -2 1.29 31% 1.5 .46 21% .21 91% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.7 4th
5th 0.5 4.7 1.2 6.4 5th
6th 0.3 8.1 7.6 0.2 16.2 6th
7th 0.1 8.3 17.8 2.3 0.0 28.5 7th
8th 0.0 2.6 16.8 4.0 0.0 23.5 8th
9th 0.1 8.2 5.7 0.1 14.0 9th
10th 0.9 5.1 0.2 6.2 10th
11th 2.2 0.8 3.0 11th
12th 0.3 0.3 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 3.5 16.8 31.2 30.5 15.0 3.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 3.0% 98.7% 1.4% 97.2% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.6%
13-7 15.0% 93.3% 0.9% 92.4% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.7 4.0 1.5 0.2 1.0 93.2%
12-8 30.5% 81.8% 0.4% 81.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.4 8.0 7.8 3.1 0.0 5.5 81.8%
11-9 31.2% 63.0% 0.3% 62.7% 10.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 7.3 7.6 0.1 11.6 62.9%
10-10 16.8% 34.6% 0.2% 34.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 4.2 0.3 10.9 34.5%
9-11 3.5% 7.1% 0.1% 7.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 7.0%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 67.7% 0.4% 67.3% 9.3 32.3 67.6%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 5.9 4.2 6.3 25.0 35.4 22.9 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 99.0% 6.2 3.9 18.4 44.4 23.7 7.2 1.4
Lose Out 1.3% 0.8% 11.7 0.3 0.5