Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.3 #177
Expected Predictive Rating -2.6 #212
Pace 63.8 #321
Improvement -1.2 #249

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #123 B+ B- C- C B-
Defense #259 C- D+ C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #250 1.14 #213 -2.0 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #309 0.83 #88 -1.9 #268
Three Pointers 50% #31 1.18 #20 +9.1 #6
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #60 +5.1 #61
Freethrows 19.2 #87 71% #222 13.7 #113
Second Chance 32.7% #119 0.90 #325 0.29 #236
Turnovers 17.0% #196
Total Offense +1.5 #123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.21 #237 -2.1 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #192 1.04 #365 -2.6 #338
Three Pointers 40% #222 0.90 #50 +3.1 #75
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #233 -1.6 #229
Freethrows 18.4 #236 76% #308 14.0 #278
Second Chance 31.8% #224 0.98 #107 0.31 #168
Turnovers 15.6% #246
Total Defense -2.8 #259

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #104 0.4% #201
Shot Type Make % Effect 8.7% #58 3.0% #237
Possession Length 20.1 #360 16.9 #126
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #345 0.17 #184
Improvement +2.3 #44 -3.5 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 15.0% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 48.4% 64.9% 38.4%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 82.7% 59.9%
Conference Champion 10.7% 17.9% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.2% 4.9%
First Four1.1% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round11.7% 14.7% 9.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 410 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 228 @San Diego W 71-68 48%     7.4   1 - 0 +2.2 +5.5 -2.9
  Sun, Nov 9 51 @San Diego St. L 57-73 9%     -11.0   1 - 1 -2.5 -1.2 -3.5
  Sat, Nov 15 113 @Seattle L 74-83 23%     -9.0   1 - 2 -2.4 +16.8 -20.3
  Tue, Nov 18 61 @Santa Clara L 55-64 11%     -5.4   1 - 3 +2.8 -8.4 +10.4
  Wed, Nov 26 134 Sam Houston St. L 81-84 39%     -1.1   1 - 4 -1.4 +5.2 -6.5
  Fri, Nov 28 200 Cal St. Northridge W 82-50 55%     18.1   2 - 4 +29.4 +1.5 +25.5
  Wed, Dec 3 333 @UMKC W 68-59 73%     0.2   3 - 4 +1.4 +5.4 -2.6
  Sat, Dec 6 267 Denver W 93-79 77%     5.6   4 - 4 +5.0 +13.7 -8.1
  Wed, Dec 10 100 @Utah Valley L 69-73 18%     1.3   4 - 5 +4.3 +3.1 +1.1
  Sun, Dec 21 185 UC Davis L 83-93 62%     -8.3   4 - 6 -14.5 +12.8 -27.9
  Thu, Jan 1 295 Sacramento St. W 97-84 81%     10.5   5 - 6 1 - 0 +2.6 +6.5 -5.6
  Sat, Jan 3 153 Portland St. L 87-93 OT 56%     4.9   5 - 7 1 - 1 -8.9 +10.6 -19.2
  Thu, Jan 8 173 @Northern Colorado L 73-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 285 @Northern Arizona W 72-69 60%    
  Thu, Jan 15 182 Idaho W 74-71 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 247 Eastern Washington W 81-74 74%    
  Thu, Jan 22 156 @Montana St. L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 188 @Montana L 75-77 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 223 @Weber St. L 75-76 47%    
  Mon, Feb 2 153 @Portland St. L 69-73 35%    
  Thu, Feb 5 285 Northern Arizona W 75-66 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 173 Northern Colorado W 76-73 60%    
  Thu, Feb 12 247 @Eastern Washington W 78-77 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 182 @Idaho L 71-74 40%    
  Thu, Feb 19 188 Montana W 78-74 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 156 Montana St. W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 223 Weber St. W 78-73 68%    
  Mon, Mar 2 295 @Sacramento St. W 79-76 61%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 10.7 1st
2nd 0.5 3.5 5.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 6.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 7.2 3.4 0.4 14.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 6.7 3.6 0.4 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.9 4.1 0.5 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 5.6 8.9 12.5 14.8 15.2 14.0 11.0 7.5 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 99.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 92.1% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 74.3% 2.9    1.9 0.9 0.1
13-5 46.1% 3.5    1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-6 17.0% 1.9    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 5.6 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.5% 42.0% 42.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.6% 38.0% 38.0% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.0
14-4 3.9% 29.4% 29.4% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.8
13-5 7.5% 22.4% 22.4% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 5.8
12-6 11.0% 19.9% 19.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 8.8
11-7 14.0% 14.4% 14.4% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.1 12.0
10-8 15.2% 12.0% 12.0% 15.1 0.2 1.4 0.3 13.3
9-9 14.8% 8.9% 8.9% 15.6 0.6 0.7 13.4
8-10 12.5% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.6 11.9
7-11 8.9% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 8.6
6-12 5.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 5.4
5-13 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.8
4-14 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 4.6 2.3 87.8 0.0%