Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.2 #236
Expected Predictive Rating -4.6 #234
Pace 63.1 #324
Improvement -6.9 #364

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #149 B- C C- C+ B-
Defense #310 C- C- D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #192 1.11 #244 -1.3 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #306 0.87 #46 -1.4 #255
Three Pointers 48% #50 1.10 #63 +5.4 #33
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #103 +2.6 #101
Freethrows 0.32 #155 74% #136 0.23 #140
Second Chance 33.2% #108 0.96 #278 0.32 #166
Turnovers 17.7% #224
Total Offense +0.5 #149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #109 1.17 #200 -1.9 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #218 1.00 #364 -1.8 #312
Three Pointers 39% #235 0.97 #115 +1.7 #116
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #248 -2.0 #248
Freethrows 0.33 #245 77% #354 0.25 #296
Second Chance 31.6% #223 1.07 #243 0.34 #244
Turnovers 15.0% #295
Total Defense -4.6 #310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #84 0.8% #237
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #114 3.3% #242
Possession Length 19.8 #360 16.8 #116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #344 0.18 #224
Improvement -1.9 #295 -5.0 #360

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.1% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 3.4% 4.2% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 16.0% 19.4% 4.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 4.5% 32.0%
First Four2.0% 1.9% 2.3%
First Round3.1% 3.3% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 200 @San Diego W 71 - 68 33% +7  1 - 0 +3 +5 C C- A- -2 C B- D+
 Sun, Nov 9 43 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 5% -11  1 - 1 -1 +2 A- C F -6 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 125 @Seattle L 74 - 83 19% -9  1 - 2 -4 +19 B+ A+ B- -24 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 46 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 5% -5  1 - 3 +6 -6 C F F+ +11 A+ B F+
 Wed, Nov 26 110 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 23% -1  1 - 4 +1 +7 A F F -6 C F C
 Fri, Nov 28 188 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 41% +18  2 - 4 +30 +3 B- A D- +25 A+ B- B
 Wed, Dec 3 358 @UMKC W 68 - 59 76% +0  3 - 4 -3 +2 D B+ D -4 D C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 289 Denver W 93 - 79 72% +6  4 - 4 +4 +13 B+ B- A- -9 C F C
 Wed, Dec 10 100 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 13% +1  4 - 5 +4 +3 B- F B- +1 C A- B+
 Sun, Dec 21 191 UC Davis L 83 - 93 53% -8  4 - 6 -15 +13 A+ C+ B- -29 F D F
 Thu, Jan 1 260 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 67% +10  5 - 6 1 - 0 +4 +6 B+ D+ A -3 B- D D+
 Sat, Jan 3 140 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 40% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 -8 +13 A+ D+ A+ -20 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 193 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 31% -11  5 - 8 1 - 2 -12 +4 D+ C D -17 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 311 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 57% +2  6 - 8 2 - 2 -4 +10 A- A- F+ -14 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 15 183 Idaho W 76 - 68 52% -2  7 - 8 3 - 2 +3 +4 A- F B- -0 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 242 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 63% -15  7 - 9 3 - 3 -26 -10 F C+ A -16 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 166 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 26% -5  7 - 10 3 - 4 -9 -2 D+ B+ B- -9 C F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 156 @Montana L 60 - 69 25% -8  7 - 11 3 - 5 -6 -8 F+ C+ F+ +2 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 230 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 38% +4  7 - 12 3 - 6 -3 +7 A+ F C -10 C- D- C
 Mon, Feb 2 140 @Portland St. L 65 - 88 21% -13  7 - 13 3 - 7 -19 +7 C A+ F+ -29 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 311 Northern Arizona W 76 - 68 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 193 Northern Colorado W 76 - 75 53%
 Thu, Feb 12 242 @Eastern Washington L 74 - 77 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 183 @Idaho L 70 - 76 30%
 Thu, Feb 19 156 Montana L 74 - 75 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 166 Montana St. L 71 - 72 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 230 Weber St. W 78 - 75 60%
 Mon, Mar 2 260 @Sacramento St. L 78 - 80 44%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 11 -4 +0 B- C C- -5 C- C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 0.3 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.6 2.3 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 0.4 5.3 5.8 0.5 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 4.2 9.5 1.7 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.5 11.8 4.9 0.1 19.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 10.2 8.4 0.5 20.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 8.7 7.7 1.2 19.8 9th
10th 0.5 2.0 1.6 0.2 4.4 10th
Total 0.6 4.2 12.0 20.7 26.0 20.6 11.4 4.1 0.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.5% 10.6% 10.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 4.1% 9.8% 9.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.7
9-9 11.4% 7.0% 7.0% 15.3 0.6 0.3 10.6
8-10 20.6% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.1 0.9 19.5
7-11 26.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.7 25.3
6-12 20.7% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.6 20.2
5-13 12.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 11.8
4-14 4.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 0.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.7 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%