Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.6#322
Expected Predictive Rating-19.5#354
Pace62.2#332
Improvement+0.6#136

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#327
First Shot-7.1#336
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#110
Layup/Dunks-5.7#326
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#96
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+1.2#73

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#287
First Shot-4.7#314
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#116
Layups/Dunks-1.0#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows-1.2#272
Improvement-0.7#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.0% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 5.0% 9.1% 4.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.4% 20.2% 31.2%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 7.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 45 - 106 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 229   @ Pepperdine L 60-65 19%     0 - 1 -5.3 -13.7 +8.5
  Nov 14, 2021 199   @ Seattle L 51-77 15%     0 - 2 -24.4 -19.3 -6.3
  Nov 19, 2021 109   @ Nebraska L 60-78 7%     0 - 3 -10.9 -1.9 -10.9
  Nov 22, 2021 223   UMKC L 58-74 35%     0 - 4 -21.5 -8.5 -15.5
  Nov 27, 2021 246   @ Air Force L 48-59 22%     0 - 5 -12.4 -16.9 +2.9
  Dec 02, 2021 260   Portland St. L 55-63 44%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -16.1 -18.7 +2.5
  Dec 04, 2021 310   Northern Arizona L 70-73 58%     0 - 7 0 - 2 -14.7 -3.3 -11.7
  Dec 08, 2021 121   @ California L 53-69 7%    
  Dec 22, 2021 115   @ UC Santa Barbara L 57-73 7%    
  Dec 30, 2021 209   @ Montana L 58-69 16%    
  Jan 01, 2022 192   @ Montana St. L 61-72 15%    
  Jan 08, 2022 96   Weber St. L 61-73 14%    
  Jan 13, 2022 222   Eastern Washington L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 15, 2022 345   Idaho W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 20, 2022 96   @ Weber St. L 58-76 5%    
  Jan 22, 2022 133   @ Southern Utah L 61-76 9%    
  Jan 27, 2022 295   @ Sacramento St. L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 184   @ Northern Colorado L 61-73 14%    
  Feb 03, 2022 192   Montana St. L 64-69 32%    
  Feb 05, 2022 209   Montana L 61-66 34%    
  Feb 10, 2022 345   @ Idaho W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington L 66-76 19%    
  Feb 17, 2022 184   Northern Colorado L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 19, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 24, 2022 310   @ Northern Arizona L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 26, 2022 260   @ Portland St. L 61-68 26%    
  Mar 03, 2022 133   Southern Utah L 64-73 22%    
Projected Record 5 - 22 5 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 5.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.1 7.0 7.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 21.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.9 6.4 9.5 7.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 28.2 10th
11th 0.9 3.4 6.2 6.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 20.4 11th
Total 0.9 3.6 8.2 12.8 15.6 16.2 14.1 11.2 7.7 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 11.9% 11.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.6% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
10-10 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.8
9-11 4.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.7
8-12 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
7-13 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.1
6-14 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.1
5-15 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.2
4-16 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
3-17 12.8% 12.8
2-18 8.2% 8.2
1-19 3.6% 3.6
0-20 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%