Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.1 270
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 276
Pace 63.3 324
Improvement -9.7 365

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 165 C+ C+ C- C+ B-
Defense D- 334 D C- D D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 210 C- 55% 255 -1.6 239
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 279 C+ 40% 117 -1.8 270
Three Pointers 47% 49 B- 36% 110 +4.4 43
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 97 C +0.3 161
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 143
Second Chance C+ 32.7% 114 C- 1.00 214 C+ 0.33 141
Turnovers C- 17.4% 220
Freethrows C 0.31 168 C+ 74% 142 C+ 0.23 148
Total Offense C -0.1 165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 103 D+ 61% 259 +3.1 285
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 225 F 50% 365 +1.7 307
Three Pointers 39% 236 C 33% 153 -1.1 131
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 249 D +3.1 300
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 299
Second Chance C 30.6% 187 D 1.11 301 C- 0.34 255
Turnovers D 14.6% 311
Freethrows C- 0.32 231 F 77% 357 D+ 0.25 294
Total Defense D- -6.0 334

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.6 355 16.8 100
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 336 0.20 276
Improvement -3.4 #328 -6.4 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 65% 45% 80%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 41.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 47 - 59 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 220 @San Diego W 71 - 68 29% +7  78% 1 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +2 C- C- B+ C+ +1 C B- D+
 Sun, Nov 9 42 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 3% -11  0% 1 - 1 C -0 C +1 A- C F C- -3 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 127 @Seattle L 74 - 83 15% -9  1% 1 - 2 C- -4 A+ +17 B+ A+ C F -22 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 44 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 4% -5  2% 1 - 3 B- +6 F+ -10 C- F F A+ +15 A+ B- D-
 Wed, Nov 26 120 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 20% -1  29% 1 - 4 C -0 B- +4 A F F D+ -4 C F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 164 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 29% +18  82% 2 - 4 A+ +32 C +0 B- A D- A+ +29 A+ B- B
 Wed, Dec 3 359 @UMKC W 68 - 59 75% +0  26% 3 - 4 C- -4 C -0 D- B+ D- C- -3 D C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 249 Denver W 93 - 79 57% +6  81% 4 - 4 B- +6 A +12 A- B A- D -5 C F C
 Wed, Dec 10 102 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 10% +1  40% 4 - 5 C+ +4 C- -0 B- F B- B +4 C+ A- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 178 UC Davis L 83 - 93 43% -8  2% 4 - 6 D- -14 A +12 A+ C+ B F -27 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 268 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 61% +10  93% 5 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +3 B+ D+ A- C -1 B- D- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 145 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 35% +5  75% 5 - 7 1 - 1 D -8 A- +10 A+ D+ A F -18 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 158 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 20% -11  1% 5 - 8 1 - 2 D -10 C+ +2 D+ C D- F -14 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 313 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 50% +2  60% 6 - 8 2 - 2 C- -4 B+ +7 A- A- F F -11 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 186 Idaho W 76 - 68 44% -2  15% 7 - 8 3 - 2 C+ +3 C+ +2 A- F B- B- +2 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 208 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 49% -15  0% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -24 F -12 F B- A F -12 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 147 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 18% -5  4% 7 - 10 3 - 4 D -8 D+ -4 D+ B+ B- D -6 C F F
 Sat, Jan 24 177 @Montana L 60 - 69 22% -8  1% 7 - 11 3 - 5 D+ -7 F -11 F B- F+ B +3 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 229 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 31% +4  86% 7 - 12 3 - 6 C- -3 B- +4 A F C D- -7 D+ F+ C
 Mon, Feb 2 145 @Portland St. L 65 - 88 18% -13  4% 7 - 13 3 - 7 F -19 B- +4 C- A+ F F -26 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 313 Northern Arizona L 73 - 79 71% -4  15% 7 - 14 3 - 8 F -18 C+ +2 B- B A F -21 F A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 158 Northern Colorado L 61 - 69 38% -3  24% 7 - 15 3 - 9 D -11 F -12 F B- B- C+ +0 C F+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 208 @Eastern Washington L 75 - 88 27% -7  24% 7 - 16 3 - 10 D- -13 C+ +2 D A- D- F -16 F C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 186 @Idaho L 69 - 99 24% -25  0% 7 - 17 3 - 11 F -29 F+ -8 F B B- F -19 F F C+
 Thu, Feb 19 177 Montana L 74 - 76 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 147 Montana St. L 70 - 74 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 229 Weber St. W 78 - 77 54%
 Mon, Mar 2 268 @Sacramento St. L 78 - 81 38%
Totals 9 - 19 5 - 13 -6 C +0 A C B- D- -6 B- C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C+ B- C 38% 28% 47% B- C+ C+ C- C+ C- C C+ C+ D- D+ F C D 42% 19% 39% D+ D C D C- D C- F D+
1.09 55% 40% 36% 0 +1 1.04 33% 1.0 .33 17% .31 74% .23 1.17 61% 50% 33% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.1 .34 15% .32 77% .24
Nov
7		 San Diego C+ F A A- D+ 46% 9% 46% B+ C- B+ F C- B+ C+ F D+ C+ A F F B- 49% 16% 35% F C D- A+ B- D+ D+ B- C-
1.12 48% 50% 38% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.8 .34 16% .36 63% .22 1.07 46% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.8 .26 16% .26 71% .19
Nov
9		 San Diego St. C A- F C B+ 40% 12% 49% A- A- B+ F C F B- C- B- C- F B- D+ F 46% 20% 35% F F A A+ A+ B A- C+ A-
0.92 65% 20% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 0.7 .23 31% .33 71% .23 1.18 90% 33% 38% +16 +1 1.35 24% 0.6 .14 19% .24 75% .18
Nov
15		 Seattle A+ D+ F A+ B 49% 9% 42% A B+ A+ B A+ C B- B B F D F F F 43% 14% 43% D F D F F B- B- F C
1.19 50% 25% 42% 0 +2 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .32 75% .24 1.33 63% 83% 53% +21 +1 1.45 29% 1.5 .43 19% .26 77% .20
Nov
18		 Santa Clara F+ A+ F F+ C- 30% 15% 55% D+ C- F+ F F F B C B- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 47% 6% 47% F A+ F+ A+ B- D- F B- F
0.86 75% 17% 27% -4 0 0.95 23% 0.7 .16 25% .37 72% .27 1.00 39% 67% 17% -19 +2 0.69 43% 0.8 .36 12% .36 70% .25
Nov
26		 Sam Houston St. B- A+ A+ C A 34% 11% 55% B A C+ F F F A+ A A+ D+ B+ F C C+ 38% 19% 43% C C F D+ F C+ F F F
1.12 77% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.18 32% 0.6 .18 23% .74 78% .58 1.16 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.1 .55 18% .47 79% .37
Nov
28		 Cal St. Northridge C F A+ C B 25% 22% 53% D B- C- A+ A D- C B C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 21% 26% 53% A+ A+ B- B B- B C F D-
1.09 46% 73% 33% +4 -1 1.08 25% 1.9 .46 19% .31 79% .24 0.66 25% 13% 20% -24 -2 0.49 30% 0.9 .26 20% .31 79% .25
Dec
3		 UMKC C A+ F F D- 37% 11% 52% C+ D- A- C B+ D- D+ B+ C C- C F A+ D 43% 26% 31% D D C- B- C+ B F F F
1.12 76% 20% 25% -2 +1 1.00 45% 1.0 .45 20% .25 75% .18 0.97 56% 55% 23% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .23 21% .34 75% .25
Dec
6		 Denver A F A+ A+ A- 38% 8% 55% B- A- B C+ B A- C- A C+ D C- F A- C 40% 23% 36% D- C D F F C F B- F
1.38 45% 50% 52% +11 +2 1.26 39% 1.2 .45 9% .29 78% .23 1.18 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.4 .47 15% .47 74% .35
Dec
10		 Utah Valley C- F A+ A- C+ 45% 10% 45% A- B- D- F F B- D+ D+ D B F D- A+ C 44% 16% 40% B- C+ D- A+ A- A- D+ F F
1.01 43% 60% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 19% .31 71% .22 1.06 75% 43% 22% +1 +1 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 25% .33 82% .27
Dec
21		 UC Davis A C A+ A+ A+ 35% 8% 58% B- A+ B+ D+ C+ B A+ B- A+ F F F A+ F 45% 25% 29% C F C+ F D- F D- F F
1.26 57% 67% 48% +14 +1 1.33 37% 0.9 .33 17% .60 76% .46 1.41 91% 54% 27% +16 0 1.33 26% 1.3 .35 9% .38 91% .35
Jan
1		 Sacramento St. C+ F C A+ A- 37% 12% 51% C- B+ D- B D+ A- A- D+ B C A+ F B+ B- 37% 31% 31% C+ B- B- F D- C- F B+ F
1.20 48% 43% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.2 .32 12% .38 70% .27 1.04 35% 53% 29% -6 -1 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .54 73% .39
Jan
3		 Portland St. A- B- B- A+ A+ 35% 10% 56% B A+ B- F D+ A A F B F F F C- F 45% 17% 38% C- F A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.18 61% 40% 41% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.7 .24 14% .47 67% .31 1.26 75% 67% 35% +13 +1 1.30 22% 0.5 .11 11% .40 85% .33
Jan
8		 Northern Colorado C+ B C- F D 53% 17% 30% B D+ A- F C D- A D+ A- F F F F F 27% 10% 63% C- F B+ B- B F D+ C D+
1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31 1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Northern Arizona B+ A A+ C A 41% 20% 39% D+ A- A+ D A- F A+ A A+ F C+ B A B+ 60% 14% 26% F B- F F F C+ F F F
1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34 1.23 56% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38
Jan
15		 Idaho C+ F A+ A+ A 39% 25% 36% C+ A- D+ F F B- A A- A+ B- D- F A+ A+ 38% 13% 49% D+ A+ B+ F F D F A F
1.14 41% 64% 50% +9 -1 1.18 23% 0.6 .13 13% .43 80% .35 1.02 65% 50% 14% -11 +1 0.82 23% 2.0 .46 13% .54 65% .35
Jan
17		 Eastern Washington F F A+ F F 41% 13% 46% C+ F C B+ B- A B- A+ A F B+ F F F 38% 33% 29% A F A- A+ A+ C- F F F
0.98 42% 67% 19% -13 +1 0.78 33% 1.3 .42 12% .35 90% .32 1.24 50% 50% 67% +15 -2 1.29 24% 0.3 .08 18% .61 82% .50
Jan
22		 Montana St. D+ C- D- F+ D 44% 7% 49% A- D+ C+ A+ B+ B- A- F C D A D F C+ 35% 22% 43% D C F+ D- F F A B A
0.99 55% 33% 27% -7 +2 0.93 31% 1.3 .41 14% .34 61% .21 1.18 44% 45% 41% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.2 .40 10% .18 70% .12
Jan
24		 Montana F F D- D+ F 31% 21% 48% C- F C- A B- F+ C- D+ D+ B D+ D B C+ 46% 13% 41% D- C A- A+ A+ F+ A+ F A+
0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18 1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14
Jan
31		 Weber St. B- C+ A+ A+ A 47% 12% 41% B A F F F C F+ A D+ D- A C- F D 40% 22% 38% A- D+ D- D F+ C C- F D-
1.17 63% 67% 43% +11 +2 1.27 19% 0.4 .08 16% .27 80% .21 1.20 45% 36% 47% +2 0 1.06 36% 1.1 .39 16% .36 80% .28
Feb
2		 Portland St. B- C+ F C- D+ 51% 14% 35% A- C- A+ B A+ F A+ C- A+ F B F F F 54% 20% 26% D+ F C F F F C- F D-
1.05 58% 0% 31% -7 +2 0.92 47% 1.1 .50 24% .58 74% .43 1.42 52% 60% 54% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.3 .41 6% .33 79% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Northern Arizona C+ A- D- D+ C+ 52% 7% 41% A- B- F A+ B A C+ C+ C+ F F F F F 38% 21% 40% C- F A+ F A- F C F+ D+
1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23 1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20
Feb
7		 Northern Colorado F F F C- F 44% 19% 37% C F C- A+ B- B- D- F F+ C+ D+ D+ C- C- 41% 24% 35% B- C B+ F F+ B+ A F B
0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19 1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14
Feb
12		 Eastern Washington C+ A- F F D 39% 15% 46% C D A+ D+ A- D- A+ B A+ F F D- C+ F 45% 18% 37% D F A F C+ F F F F
1.14 69% 33% 26% -2 +1 1.00 45% 1.1 .48 20% .57 80% .45 1.34 77% 44% 33% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.4 .30 9% .43 92% .40
Feb
14		 Idaho F+ F C- F F 30% 23% 46% C F C A B B- D- A+ C F F F F F 44% 9% 46% F+ F F F F C+ C A- C+
0.95 35% 38% 27% -12 -1 0.77 26% 1.3 .33 14% .29 89% .26 1.36 71% 60% 48% +17 +2 1.41 34% 1.3 .45 17% .30 67% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.2 7th
8th 2.4 8.8 2.6 13.8 8th
9th 13.8 26.2 9.3 0.3 49.5 9th
10th 11.7 17.9 5.6 0.2 35.3 10th
Total 11.7 31.7 34.2 18.3 4.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 4.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.1
6-12 18.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 17.9
5-13 34.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.4 33.8
4-14 31.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 31.5
3-15 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 5.1%