Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#175
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#193
Pace62.2#350
Improvement+0.5#144

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#144
First Shot+1.4#134
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#222
Layup/Dunks-2.8#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#28
Freethrows+0.3#149
Improvement+1.9#57

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#230
First Shot-1.7#224
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#198
Layups/Dunks-1.0#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#81
Freethrows-1.6#289
Improvement-1.4#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 16.3% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 56.9% 62.7% 36.7%
.500 or above in Conference 74.1% 79.4% 55.0%
Conference Champion 19.1% 22.2% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 2.6% 9.5%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.8%
First Round14.6% 15.8% 10.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 78.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 412 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 260 @San Diego W 71-68 55%     1 - 0 +0.5 +3.8 -2.9
  Sun, Nov 9 52 @San Diego St. L 57-73 10%     1 - 1 -3.1 -1.3 -3.9
  Sat, Nov 15 112 @Seattle L 74-83 23%     1 - 2 -2.5 +16.0 -19.6
  Tue, Nov 18 86 @Santa Clara L 55-64 16%     1 - 3 +0.6 -8.6 +8.4
  Wed, Nov 26 122 Sam Houston St. L 81-84 37%     1 - 4 -0.6 +5.6 -6.1
  Fri, Nov 28 212 Cal St. Northridge W 82-50 59%     2 - 4 +28.7 +0.5 +25.8
  Wed, Dec 3 343 @UMKC W 68-59 76%     3 - 4 +0.3 +4.8 -3.0
  Sat, Dec 6 290 Denver W 93-79 79%     4 - 4 +4.3 +13.8 -9.0
  Wed, Dec 10 85 @Utah Valley L 69-73 16%     4 - 5 +5.6 +4.2 +1.3
  Sun, Dec 21 176 UC Davis L 83-93 62%     4 - 6 -14.2 +13.2 -28.0
  Thu, Jan 1 276 Sacramento St. W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Jan 3 173 Portland St. W 70-67 61%    
  Thu, Jan 8 171 @Northern Colorado L 71-74 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 289 @Northern Arizona W 70-67 60%    
  Thu, Jan 15 177 Idaho W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 258 Eastern Washington W 79-72 75%    
  Thu, Jan 22 168 @Montana St. L 66-70 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 209 @Montana L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 223 @Weber St. L 72-73 49%    
  Mon, Feb 2 173 @Portland St. L 67-70 39%    
  Thu, Feb 5 289 Northern Arizona W 73-64 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 171 Northern Colorado W 74-71 59%    
  Thu, Feb 12 258 @Eastern Washington W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 177 @Idaho L 69-72 40%    
  Thu, Feb 19 209 Montana W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 168 Montana St. W 69-67 59%    
  Sat, Feb 28 223 Weber St. W 76-70 70%    
  Mon, Mar 2 276 @Sacramento St. W 74-72 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.0 5.2 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 19.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 6.1 4.1 1.2 0.2 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 6.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.9 2.8 0.2 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.4 7.3 9.9 12.4 13.6 14.0 12.0 9.6 6.4 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
15-3 95.5% 3.4    3.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 80.3% 5.2    3.7 1.3 0.1
13-5 52.0% 5.0    2.5 2.1 0.4 0.0
12-6 21.5% 2.6    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 12.1 5.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 55.0% 55.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 46.4% 46.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 35.3% 35.3% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-3 3.6% 34.3% 34.3% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.4
14-4 6.4% 32.0% 32.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 4.4
13-5 9.6% 26.1% 26.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.9 0.0 7.1
12-6 12.0% 20.1% 20.1% 14.6 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.1 9.6
11-7 14.0% 15.2% 15.2% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 11.8
10-8 13.6% 12.2% 12.2% 15.2 0.1 1.2 0.4 12.0
9-9 12.4% 8.7% 8.7% 15.6 0.4 0.7 11.3
8-10 9.9% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.3
7-11 7.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.0
6-12 4.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 4.3
5-13 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.8 5.8 2.4 85.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 36.4 59.1 4.5