UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#150
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#154
Pace64.3#315
Improvement+0.3#160

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#99
First Shot+3.3#83
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#194
Layup/Dunks-0.3#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#85
Freethrows+1.5#95
Improvement-2.5#338

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#250
First Shot-2.5#257
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#186
Layups/Dunks+1.7#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#295
Freethrows-1.8#296
Improvement+2.8#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 11.8% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 86.6% 92.4% 78.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 91.3% 76.0%
Conference Champion 9.7% 12.9% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.9% 11.8% 7.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Away) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 197 San Jose St. W 85-74 72%     1 - 0 +5.7 +18.4 -11.4
  Tue, Nov 11 276 @Sacramento St. W 92-87 65%     2 - 0 +1.8 +14.1 -12.6
  Mon, Nov 17 123 Loyola Marymount L 74-78 OT 55%     2 - 1 -4.6 +0.6 -5.0
  Sat, Nov 22 89 @Nevada L 64-77 21%     2 - 2 -3.8 -3.7 -0.4
  Fri, Nov 28 315 Lehigh W 72-70 82%     3 - 2 -7.0 +2.2 -9.0
  Sat, Nov 29 112 Seattle W 74-71 39%     4 - 2 +6.5 +14.1 -7.3
  Thu, Dec 4 275 Long Beach St. W 84-77 OT 82%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -2.2 +1.0 -3.5
  Sat, Dec 6 305 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109-84 86%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +13.8 +27.5 -14.7
  Sat, Dec 13 85 Utah Valley L 53-68 28%     6 - 3 -8.4 -12.8 +3.9
  Wed, Dec 17 283 @Green Bay L 64-67 66%     6 - 4 -6.6 +2.0 -9.3
  Mon, Dec 22 256 Portland W 79-61 80%     7 - 4 +9.7 +10.7 +0.8
  Thu, Jan 1 242 @Cal St. Fullerton W 81-79 59%    
  Sat, Jan 3 212 @Cal St. Northridge W 80-79 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 176 UC Davis W 77-72 67%    
  Thu, Jan 15 305 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 109 Hawaii L 70-71 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 257 Cal Poly W 86-77 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 275 @Long Beach St. W 76-72 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 83 @UC San Diego L 71-80 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 242 Cal St. Fullerton W 84-76 78%    
  Thu, Feb 5 176 @UC Davis L 74-75 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 131 UC Irvine W 72-70 57%    
  Thu, Feb 12 272 @UC Riverside W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 257 @Cal Poly W 83-80 61%    
  Thu, Feb 19 212 Cal St. Northridge W 83-76 74%    
  Sun, Feb 22 109 @Hawaii L 68-74 30%    
  Thu, Feb 26 272 UC Riverside W 79-69 81%    
  Sat, Feb 28 131 @UC Irvine L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Mar 7 83 UC San Diego L 74-77 39%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.1 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.1 5.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.4 7.7 5.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 21.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.5 7.1 4.2 1.1 0.1 19.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.8 5.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.1 1.0 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.2 7.1 10.0 12.8 14.4 14.6 12.6 9.5 6.4 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 93.0% 1.2    1.0 0.2
17-3 78.4% 2.5    1.8 0.6 0.0
16-4 48.5% 3.1    1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 19.7% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 27.8% 27.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.3% 33.2% 33.2% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9
17-3 3.1% 28.8% 28.8% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 2.2
16-4 6.4% 25.5% 25.5% 13.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.8
15-5 9.5% 20.5% 20.5% 13.3 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 7.5
14-6 12.6% 15.1% 15.1% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 10.7
13-7 14.6% 9.3% 9.3% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 13.2
12-8 14.4% 5.6% 5.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 13.6
11-9 12.8% 3.4% 3.4% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.3
10-10 10.0% 2.4% 2.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8
9-11 7.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.0
8-12 4.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.2
7-13 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 1.0% 1.0
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 13.4 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 90.1 0.0%