UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#115
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#259
Pace64.2#297
Improvement-1.0#256

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#82
First Shot+2.5#103
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#112
Layup/Dunks+8.5#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#307
Freethrows+2.3#56
Improvement-0.1#198

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#175
First Shot+0.2#161
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#199
Layups/Dunks-7.3#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#36
Freethrows-0.1#192
Improvement-0.8#254
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 27.5% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.2 14.3
.500 or above 92.5% 98.1% 91.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.9% 95.6% 89.8%
Conference Champion 25.2% 33.9% 23.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.9% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round21.1% 27.3% 19.6%
Second Round3.2% 6.0% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 415 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 49   @ Washington St. L 65-73 20%     0 - 1 +4.3 +2.7 +1.3
  Nov 20, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 81-50 97%     1 - 1 +11.5 +2.5 +9.7
  Nov 24, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-58 98%     2 - 1 +5.5 +3.9 +1.8
  Nov 29, 2021 234   Texas Arlington L 62-70 83%     2 - 2 -14.7 -12.5 -2.2
  Dec 03, 2021 229   Pepperdine W 86-74 82%     3 - 2 +5.7 +11.1 -5.3
  Dec 11, 2021 41   @ St. Mary's L 58-67 19%    
  Dec 14, 2021 217   @ Pacific W 67-64 61%    
  Dec 19, 2021 301   Florida A&M W 74-60 91%    
  Dec 22, 2021 322   Idaho St. W 73-57 93%    
  Dec 30, 2021 198   @ UC San Diego W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 01, 2022 73   @ UC Irvine L 62-68 28%    
  Jan 06, 2022 302   Cal Poly W 71-56 90%    
  Jan 08, 2022 214   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-61 78%    
  Jan 13, 2022 286   @ Long Beach St. W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 205   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 20, 2022 136   UC Riverside W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 211   UC Davis W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 25, 2022 285   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 30, 2022 193   @ Hawaii W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 03, 2022 73   UC Irvine L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 198   UC San Diego W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 10, 2022 214   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 12, 2022 302   @ Cal Poly W 68-59 78%    
  Feb 17, 2022 205   Cal St. Fullerton W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 19, 2022 286   Long Beach St. W 82-68 88%    
  Feb 24, 2022 211   @ UC Davis W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 136   @ UC Riverside L 65-66 45%    
  Mar 01, 2022 285   Cal St. Northridge W 72-59 88%    
  Mar 04, 2022 193   Hawaii W 74-66 75%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 6.0 6.5 4.6 2.2 0.5 25.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.3 7.1 7.3 4.6 1.6 0.3 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.7 6.1 4.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.4 1.5 0.2 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.3 0.9 0.2 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.5 4.1 6.2 8.4 10.7 12.4 13.9 12.8 10.8 8.1 4.9 2.2 0.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.0
18-2 94.3% 4.6    4.1 0.5 0.0
17-3 80.0% 6.5    4.9 1.5 0.1
16-4 55.8% 6.0    3.6 2.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 29.4% 3.8    1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1
14-6 10.7% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.2% 25.2 17.1 6.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 66.2% 62.0% 4.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11.1%
19-1 2.2% 56.8% 55.6% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 2.7%
18-2 4.9% 44.9% 44.8% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.7 0.1%
17-3 8.1% 37.7% 37.7% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.2 5.0
16-4 10.8% 32.0% 32.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.0 7.4
15-5 12.8% 25.5% 25.5% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.1 9.5
14-6 13.9% 21.2% 21.2% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.3 11.0
13-7 12.4% 16.0% 16.0% 15.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 10.4
12-8 10.7% 12.8% 12.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 9.4
11-9 8.4% 8.8% 8.8% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 7.7
10-10 6.2% 7.4% 7.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.8
9-11 4.1% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.8
8-12 2.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.4
7-13 1.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 21.4% 21.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.4 6.2 5.7 2.7 78.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.6 2.9 29.4 14.7 32.4 8.8 5.9 2.9 2.9