Montana
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#190
Expected Predictive Rating+6.8#86
Pace69.7#164
Improvement+2.5#35

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#187
First Shot+0.4#165
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#228
Layup/Dunks+3.0#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#294
Freethrows+2.8#52
Improvement+0.4#140

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#197
First Shot-2.7#265
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#57
Layups/Dunks-3.8#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#96
Freethrows+0.3#167
Improvement+2.0#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 18.5% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 68.3% 82.9% 62.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 84.4% 75.9%
Conference Champion 18.6% 23.7% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.5% 3.2%
First Four0.6% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round14.8% 18.4% 13.3%
Second Round0.8% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Away) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 22   @ Oregon L 48-79 5%     0 - 1 -13.7 -12.8 -3.3
  Nov 13, 2024 4   @ Tennessee L 57-92 2%     0 - 2 -11.8 -2.3 -10.3
  Nov 18, 2024 52   @ Utah St. L 83-95 10%     0 - 3 +0.7 +10.4 -8.9
  Nov 24, 2024 321   Denver W 83-73 84%     1 - 3 -2.0 -1.7 -0.9
  Nov 25, 2024 291   Utah Tech W 69-66 79%     2 - 3 -6.8 -4.8 -1.8
  Nov 27, 2024 155   Cal St. Northridge W 83-75 55%     3 - 3 +5.3 +3.0 +1.6
  Dec 04, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 71-67 47%     4 - 3 +3.5 -4.7 +8.1
  Dec 07, 2024 133   @ St. Thomas L 71-77 29%    
  Dec 16, 2024 113   @ Northern Iowa L 67-75 23%    
  Dec 21, 2024 64   @ San Francisco L 65-78 11%    
  Jan 02, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 265   @ Idaho W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 301   Northern Arizona W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 11, 2025 180   Northern Colorado W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 16, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 18, 2025 252   @ Idaho St. W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 20, 2025 265   Idaho W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 122   Montana St. L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 256   Portland St. W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 320   Sacramento St. W 73-62 83%    
  Feb 06, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 301   @ Northern Arizona W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 13, 2025 252   Idaho St. W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 210   Weber St. W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 122   @ Montana St. L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 27, 2025 320   @ Sacramento St. W 70-65 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 256   @ Portland St. W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 03, 2025 239   Eastern Washington W 81-75 70%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 3.7 5.4 4.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 18.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.5 5.7 2.8 0.6 0.1 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.5 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.8 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.1 3.1 0.4 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.2 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.8 8.4 11.0 12.8 13.8 13.3 10.6 8.3 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.0
16-2 96.6% 2.5    2.3 0.2
15-3 86.5% 4.2    3.4 0.8 0.0
14-4 64.2% 5.4    3.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 34.4% 3.7    1.5 1.5 0.6 0.0
12-6 12.1% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 11.8 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 53.2% 53.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 41.1% 41.1% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.6% 41.6% 41.6% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5
15-3 4.8% 32.8% 32.8% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 3.3
14-4 8.3% 27.7% 27.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 6.0
13-5 10.6% 22.7% 22.7% 14.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 8.2
12-6 13.3% 18.4% 18.4% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.1 10.8
11-7 13.8% 13.3% 13.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.2 11.9
10-8 12.8% 10.4% 10.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 11.5
9-9 11.0% 8.2% 8.2% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 10.1
8-10 8.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.1 0.3 8.1
7-11 5.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.7
6-12 3.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.6
5-13 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 4.9 4.6 1.3 85.0 0.0%