Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.3 183
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 200
Pace 72.1 83
Improvement -1.3 235

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 229 B- D F+ C+ C+
Defense C 151 C+ C+ D+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 183 C+ 60% 115 +0.8 145
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 231 C+ 39% 137 -0.9 227
Three Pointers 44% 126 B 37% 50 +3.5 69
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 137 B- +3.0 84
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 81
Second Chance F+ 22.5% 350 C+ 1.06 129 D 0.24 325
Turnovers F+ 20.4% 343
Freethrows C 0.30 204 B+ 77% 37 C+ 0.23 141
Total Offense C- -2.0 229

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 140 D+ 12.4% 266
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 229 F+ 8.9% 342
Three Pointers B 90% 60 B+ 0.2% 28
Total B- 60% 90 D+ 6.4% 273

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 147 D+ 61% 267 +2.0 246
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 79 C+ 37% 125 +0.9 262
Three Pointers 37% 298 B+ 30% 45 -4.1 30
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 117 C+ -0.9 141
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 131
Second Chance C+ 29.3% 137 C+ 1.01 147 C+ 0.29 126
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 267
Freethrows C+ 0.29 163 B 70% 59 C+ 0.21 125
Total Defense C +0.6 151

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 275 D 6.9% 331
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 192 D+ 3.2% 289
Three Pointers C 83% 152 D+ 0.5% 268
Total C 55% 167 D 3.7% 323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 137 16.5 50
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 258 0.19 233
Improvement -3.3 #328 +2.0 #80

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 215 180 148
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 6 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 13% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 46% 68% 27%
.500 or above in Conference 95% 100% 91%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 2%
First Round11% 13% 10%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 46.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 48 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 75 @Stanford L 68 - 91 13% -11  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 D -6 C- B- F D -5 C+ B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 125 @UNLV W 102 - 93 25% +6  82% 1 - 1 A- +15 A +13 A+ B- B- C +0 C- A- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 231 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 70% +7  95% 2 - 1 C +1 C- -2 D C- B- B- +2 B C D-
 Tue, Nov 18 35 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 5% -10  1% 2 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A+ F+ C C -0 F A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 207 Lamar L 63 - 68 67% -0  37% 2 - 3 D -11 F -17 F F F B+ +6 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 170 Oakland L 87 - 95 59% -4  16% 2 - 4 D- -12 D+ -2 B- B+ F+ F+ -9 F A D+
 Wed, Dec 3 132 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 50% -3  17% 2 - 5 D -10 D -5 C+ D C- D -5 A- F D
 Sat, Dec 6 295 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 63% -1  40% 3 - 5 C -1 C +1 B- B+ F C -1 B F C-
 Sat, Dec 20 12 @Louisville L 54 - 94 2% -17  0% 3 - 6 F -18 F -15 F+ F F C +0 B F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 311 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 84% +4  70% 4 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +2 C- -0 A- F F+ B +4 B F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 156 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 56% +9  99% 5 - 6 2 - 0 B- +6 C+ +3 B- F D B- +3 A+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 186 @Idaho W 79 - 73 40% +9  89% 6 - 6 3 - 0 B- +7 B- +4 B F+ F+ B- +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 201 @Eastern Washington L 65 - 66 42% +2  68% 6 - 7 3 - 1 C -0 D- -6 D F+ D B+ +6 C+ B F
 Sat, Jan 17 147 @Montana St. L 67 - 76 32% -0  48% 6 - 8 3 - 2 D+ -6 D- -7 C+ F F B- +2 B C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 19 311 @Northern Arizona W 98 - 72 67% +12  85% 7 - 8 4 - 2 A +20 A+ +30 A+ A+ A D- -7 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 22 224 Weber St. W 81 - 65 69% +2  46% 8 - 8 5 - 2 B +9 B +7 A+ B F B +4 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 261 Idaho St. W 69 - 60 76% +8  97% 9 - 8 6 - 2 C +0 F -11 C F D+ A+ +11 A+ D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 29 142 @Portland St. W 64 - 60 30% +5  89% 10 - 8 7 - 2 B- +8 D+ -4 B+ F F A+ +12 A+ D+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 271 @Sacramento St. L 79 - 86 58% -8  9% 10 - 9 7 - 3 D -10 D+ -2 D A+ F D- -8 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 201 Eastern Washington L 74 - 82 65% +0  53% 10 - 10 7 - 4 D- -13 D- -8 B- F F D -6 D- B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 186 Idaho W 73 - 68 63% -2  39% 11 - 10 8 - 4 C +0 D- -7 B+ D+ F A- +7 B A C+
 Sat, Feb 14 147 Montana St. L 71 - 82 55% -3  30% 11 - 11 8 - 5 D- -14 C- -1 B- F+ C+ F -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 261 @Idaho St. L 69 - 73 55% +2  59% 11 - 12 8 - 6 D+ -7 F+ -8 B- F F C+ +1 D A+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 224 @Weber St. L 77 - 78 46%
 Thu, Feb 26 271 Sacramento St. W 86 - 78 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 142 Portland St. W 71 - 70 52%
 Mon, Mar 2 156 @Northern Colorado L 75 - 79 34%
Totals 13 - 14 10 - 8 -1 C- -2 B B- C+ C +1 B B+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C+ B B- 38% 33% 44% C+ B- F+ C+ D F+ C B+ C+ C D+ C+ B+ C+ 40% 24% 37% C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ D+ C+ B C+
1.06 60% 39% 37% +3 0 1.09 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 77% .23 1.08 61% 37% 30% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 15% .29 70% .21
Nov
8		 Stanford D D A+ F D+ 43% 17% 40% B+ C- F+ A+ B- F D+ A+ B D B F C B- 52% 12% 35% C- C+ C+ B B- F A+ A+ A+
0.91 50% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.91 18% 1.8 .32 27% .31 94% .29 1.22 53% 50% 35% -1 +2 1.05 34% 0.9 .30 7% .22 60% .13
Nov
11		 UNLV A B A+ A A+ 55% 18% 27% B+ A+ B- C B- B- C+ A+ A+ C F F A+ C 48% 13% 39% F+ C- B+ A- A- F+ C- A C+
1.26 63% 60% 40% +9 +1 1.24 33% 1.1 .37 16% .40 89% .35 1.15 70% 63% 25% +4 +2 1.13 28% 0.7 .21 12% .38 63% .24
Nov
14		 Cal Poly C- B+ F F D- 36% 14% 50% C D F A+ C- B- A+ A- A+ B- B A+ C+ B+ 59% 10% 31% D- B C+ C- C D- C A- B-
1.11 67% 25% 28% -3 +1 0.97 23% 1.4 .33 15% .42 79% .33 1.01 53% 17% 33% -6 +3 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .31 71% .22
Nov
18		 Texas A&M A B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 12% 58% B- A+ F A+ F+ C D- F F C F F B- F 43% 14% 43% B F A+ A+ A+ C- F B F
1.16 60% 67% 52% +19 +1 1.42 12% 1.3 .15 20% .23 54% .13 1.23 81% 71% 33% +14 +1 1.33 23% 0.0 .00 14% .48 72% .35
Nov
23		 Lamar F D F D- F 38% 18% 44% C+ F D+ F F F A+ D A+ B+ A+ B F+ A+ 33% 50% 17% A A+ D+ F F B- A A+ A+
0.87 53% 13% 30% -9 0 0.84 27% 0.5 .12 22% .57 66% .37 0.94 26% 34% 40% -11 -4 0.72 36% 1.3 .47 18% .13 50% .07
Nov
25		 Oakland D+ D+ B- A C+ 47% 16% 36% B+ B- D A+ B+ F+ A+ F B F+ F A+ F F 49% 25% 26% C+ F D A+ A D+ F C+ F
1.12 58% 44% 40% +4 +1 1.13 31% 1.4 .42 19% .35 59% .21 1.22 77% 23% 43% +9 0 1.21 35% 0.6 .22 13% .46 74% .34
Dec
3		 North Dakota St. D C+ A+ B- B 22% 35% 43% F C+ D D D C- D+ F D- D C- F A+ A- 28% 34% 38% A A- D F F D F F F
1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14 1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33
Dec
6		 North Dakota C D C+ A+ B 40% 11% 49% C B- C- A+ B+ F A F B- C F+ B A+ B- 42% 25% 33% A- B F D- F C- B- F C
1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29 1.09 64% 31% 18% -7 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24
Dec
20		 Louisville F C- F F F+ 27% 27% 47% C F+ F F+ F F C- A+ B C F A+ A+ B+ 42% 5% 53% C- B D- F F B+ C+ B B-
0.72 54% 15% 26% -13 -2 0.73 11% 0.8 .08 25% .27 87% .23 1.26 83% 0% 28% +3 +2 1.13 40% 1.5 .60 19% .31 74% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Arizona C- A+ F A+ A- 39% 14% 47% C A- F D F F+ D+ A+ C+ B B+ C- C+ B 34% 28% 38% B B F+ D- F+ B+ C- F+ D
1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23 0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21
Jan
3		 Northern Colorado C+ A+ F D+ B 35% 20% 45% D+ B- F D- F D A+ A+ A+ B- B- A A A+ 23% 30% 48% A+ A+ D+ D+ D F+ F D+ F
1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53 1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24
Jan
8		 Idaho B- B- A+ D+ B+ 33% 22% 45% C+ B F A- F+ F+ B A+ A+ B- A B- A+ A+ 52% 12% 36% F A+ F D F F F A F
1.13 63% 64% 32% +6 -1 1.12 14% 1.3 .18 19% .39 86% .33 1.04 46% 33% 17% -16 +2 0.74 38% 1.1 .40 11% .47 66% .31
Jan
10		 Eastern Washington D- B F F F+ 61% 15% 24% B+ D D+ F F+ D C+ A B B+ A F D- C+ 42% 23% 35% C C+ A+ F B F A+ F A+
1.02 64% 29% 18% -3 +2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .35 83% .29 1.04 45% 50% 39% 0 0 1.02 17% 1.6 .28 14% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Montana St. D- F A+ B+ C- 58% 4% 38% A+ C+ F C- F F C- A+ B B- B B+ F B- 30% 38% 32% A B C+ C+ C+ D+ F D+ F
0.94 45% 100% 37% -4 +4 1.02 10% 1.0 .10 21% .25 93% .23 1.07 50% 35% 41% 0 -3 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 14% .36 77% .28
Jan
19		 Northern Arizona A+ A A+ A+ A+ 45% 10% 45% B- A+ C A+ A+ A C A B- D- F A+ C- F+ 40% 4% 56% F F B A+ A- F D+ B+ C
1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24 1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18
Jan
22		 Weber St. B A+ F A+ A+ 45% 13% 43% B- A+ D+ A+ B F F A F B F B+ B D- 51% 15% 34% D+ D- A A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ B-
1.25 81% 17% 50% +18 +1 1.40 25% 1.6 .40 23% .20 80% .16 1.01 71% 29% 31% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.4 .10 17% .37 60% .22
Jan
24		 Idaho St. F B- C- D+ C- 46% 13% 41% B C F F F D+ F A+ F A+ A+ A B+ A+ 31% 21% 48% A- A+ B+ F D+ B- B- A B+
1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14 0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18
Jan
29		 Portland St. D+ A+ B F A 44% 29% 27% D B+ F F F F A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ C A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% B- A+ C+ D- D+ A F C F
0.93 78% 42% 18% +3 -1 1.07 20% 0.4 .08 25% .48 80% .39 0.88 50% 38% 19% -12 0 0.78 30% 1.1 .33 25% .58 70% .41
Jan
31		 Sacramento St. D+ F B+ A- F+ 59% 4% 37% A D C+ A+ A+ F B+ B A- D- F A+ F F 36% 21% 43% D F B A+ A+ D+ D A- C-
1.09 45% 50% 39% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.6 .56 22% .37 76% .28 1.19 79% 9% 48% +10 0 1.23 24% 0.5 .12 14% .39 71% .27
Feb
5		 Eastern Washington D- C+ A+ B B+ 38% 21% 40% D B- D- F F F C- C+ C- D C+ F F F 33% 24% 43% B D- C+ B B- C F A+ D
1.05 61% 60% 37% +8 0 1.17 27% 0.8 .20 24% .32 76% .24 1.16 56% 50% 43% +8 -1 1.16 29% 1.0 .29 18% .42 63% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Idaho D- D A A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% C+ B+ F A+ D+ F C+ F D- A- B+ A+ D+ B 35% 18% 47% C+ B B- A+ A C+ A A+ A+
1.01 53% 50% 42% +7 -1 1.14 17% 1.4 .23 21% .35 60% .21 0.94 50% 20% 37% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .16 17% .20 58% .12
Feb
14		 Montana St. C- A- D- C- B- 37% 12% 51% C+ B- F C- F+ C+ B A+ A F F C+ F F 21% 43% 36% A+ F A+ A A+ F F A D
1.08 67% 33% 32% +1 +1 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 15% .30 88% .27 1.24 82% 39% 47% +13 -4 1.19 18% 0.8 .15 8% .34 67% .23
Feb
19		 Idaho St. F+ F+ C- A+ B 28% 28% 44% F B- F F F F A D B+ C+ B- F D- D 49% 16% 35% D D B A+ A+ C C F D+
1.02 50% 42% 47% +8 -2 1.14 18% 0.8 .14 21% .41 73% .30 1.08 52% 63% 39% +3 +1 1.12 29% 0.6 .18 18% .30 82% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 1.9 9.3 5.7 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 16.9 16.5 1.6 35.4 3rd
4th 5.1 17.3 1.4 23.7 4th
5th 0.1 11.1 1.8 13.0 5th
6th 2.4 6.2 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 2.1 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.6 22.8 37.9 27.1 7.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 7.5% 18.2% 18.2% 13.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 6.1
11-7 27.1% 14.4% 14.4% 14.6 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.1 23.2
10-8 37.9% 11.4% 11.4% 15.1 0.3 3.4 0.6 33.6
9-9 22.8% 8.4% 8.4% 15.8 0.4 1.5 20.9
8-10 4.6% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.4
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 14.9 88.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 13.6 2.2 44.6 46.6 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%
Lose Out 2.2%