Montana
Big Sky
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#209
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#221
Pace64.5#294
Improvement+2.3#41

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#200
First Shot+3.4#80
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#346
Layup/Dunks-5.3#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#79
Freethrows+4.5#4
Improvement+0.6#125

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#219
First Shot-2.5#258
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#121
Layups/Dunks+1.7#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#307
Freethrows-0.6#221
Improvement+1.7#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 8.2% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 71.1% 78.2% 54.7%
.500 or above in Conference 77.2% 79.8% 71.3%
Conference Champion 5.1% 5.8% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.7%
First Round6.8% 7.5% 4.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 413 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. L 49-86 10%     0 - 1 -24.5 -16.7 -9.4
  Nov 15, 2021 332   @ North Dakota L 77-79 74%     0 - 2 -10.7 +2.1 -13.0
  Nov 20, 2021 336   Nebraska Omaha W 68-47 90%     1 - 2 +5.3 -7.2 +14.5
  Nov 24, 2021 198   UC San Diego W 71-61 59%     2 - 2 +5.7 +0.6 +5.7
  Nov 26, 2021 281   Southern Miss W 74-62 76%     3 - 2 +2.5 +4.2 -0.9
  Nov 29, 2021 53   @ Oregon L 47-87 11%     3 - 3 -28.2 -19.5 -10.4
  Dec 02, 2021 295   @ Sacramento St. W 65-58 60%     4 - 3 1 - 0 +2.4 -3.5 +6.5
  Dec 04, 2021 184   @ Northern Colorado L 75-78 35%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -0.8 +1.2 -2.0
  Dec 08, 2021 246   Air Force W 65-59 70%    
  Dec 19, 2021 83   @ Santa Clara L 67-78 15%    
  Dec 30, 2021 322   Idaho St. W 69-58 84%    
  Jan 01, 2022 96   Weber St. L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 06, 2022 222   @ Eastern Washington L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 08, 2022 192   @ Montana St. L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 13, 2022 133   Southern Utah L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 20, 2022 260   @ Portland St. W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 22, 2022 310   @ Northern Arizona W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 27, 2022 345   Idaho W 79-64 91%    
  Jan 29, 2022 222   Eastern Washington W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 03, 2022 96   @ Weber St. L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 05, 2022 322   @ Idaho St. W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 10, 2022 310   Northern Arizona W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 260   Portland St. W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 17, 2022 345   @ Idaho W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 24, 2022 133   @ Southern Utah L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 27, 2022 192   Montana St. W 70-68 58%    
  Mar 03, 2022 184   Northern Colorado W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 71-62 78%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.0 4.9 1.5 0.2 15.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.8 5.0 1.2 0.1 17.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.6 6.7 4.3 0.9 0.1 17.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 5.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.8 6.3 9.4 12.9 14.4 14.5 13.2 10.1 6.6 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 98.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 80.9% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 48.3% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.3% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 36.4% 36.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.4% 30.5% 30.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.4% 27.6% 27.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
16-4 3.5% 22.3% 22.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.7
15-5 6.6% 17.3% 17.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 5.5
14-6 10.1% 13.2% 13.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 8.8
13-7 13.2% 10.1% 10.1% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.8 11.8
12-8 14.5% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 13.6
11-9 14.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 13.8
10-10 12.9% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.5
9-11 9.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.3
8-12 6.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.2
7-13 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.7
6-14 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-15 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 3.4 92.6 0.0%