Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#184
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#207
Pace68.9#196
Improvement+0.3#142

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#125
First Shot+3.4#85
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#278
Layup/Dunks+0.7#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#62
Freethrows-1.1#253
Improvement-1.8#326

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#265
First Shot-2.3#254
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#220
Layups/Dunks+3.2#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
Freethrows-1.9#284
Improvement+2.1#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 12.4% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 80.3% 90.5% 74.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 91.0% 74.4%
Conference Champion 9.2% 15.3% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.1%
First Round8.9% 12.0% 7.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 37.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 415 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 74   @ Colorado L 90-94 OT 15%     0 - 1 +5.8 +11.7 -5.5
  Nov 17, 2021 59   @ South Dakota St. L 74-91 14%     0 - 2 -6.3 -0.1 -5.7
  Nov 20, 2021 230   @ New Mexico L 78-81 47%     0 - 3 -3.3 +0.5 -3.7
  Nov 26, 2021 255   Portland W 69-66 65%     1 - 3 -1.9 +5.6 -7.1
  Nov 27, 2021 350   @ Incarnate Word W 83-64 84%     2 - 3 +7.2 +6.0 +2.1
  Nov 28, 2021 304   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-68 74%     3 - 3 -1.0 -10.4 +8.8
  Dec 02, 2021 179   @ Northern Colorado L 73-76 37%    
  Dec 04, 2021 295   @ Sacramento St. W 74-71 62%    
  Dec 07, 2021 166   North Dakota St. W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 11, 2021 330   @ St. Thomas W 80-73 75%    
  Dec 19, 2021 255   Portland W 77-70 73%    
  Dec 30, 2021 98   Weber St. L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 01, 2022 309   Idaho St. W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 06, 2022 349   @ Idaho W 81-70 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 205   Montana W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 139   Southern Utah W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 20, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 22, 2022 272   @ Portland St. W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 27, 2022 203   Eastern Washington W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 349   Idaho W 84-67 93%    
  Feb 03, 2022 309   @ Idaho St. W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 98   @ Weber St. L 70-79 20%    
  Feb 10, 2022 272   Portland St. W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 317   Northern Arizona W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 17, 2022 203   @ Eastern Washington L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 139   @ Southern Utah L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 27, 2022 205   @ Montana L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 03, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 77-68 79%    
  Mar 05, 2022 179   Northern Colorado W 76-73 59%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.7 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.2 1st
2nd 0.3 1.8 4.6 5.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.5 5.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.3 4.1 1.0 0.1 15.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 3.8 6.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.2 5.1 7.5 10.8 12.6 13.4 13.1 11.6 8.8 5.6 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 94.9% 1.3    1.1 0.2
17-3 75.2% 2.2    1.6 0.6 0.0
16-4 47.7% 2.7    1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.7% 1.9    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1
14-6 5.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.3% 37.5% 37.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.4% 38.4% 38.4% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.9
17-3 3.0% 27.5% 27.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2
16-4 5.6% 22.5% 22.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 4.3
15-5 8.8% 17.6% 17.6% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 7.3
14-6 11.6% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.3 9.9
13-7 13.1% 9.8% 9.8% 15.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 11.8
12-8 13.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 12.5
11-9 12.6% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 12.0
10-10 10.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.5
9-11 7.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.3
8-12 5.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.0
7-13 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 2.1% 2.1
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.8 2.7 90.6 0.0%