Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.4 147
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 169
Pace 65.2 270
Improvement -0.8 212

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 164 C+ C- C+ D+ D
Defense C 155 C+ C C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 355 D+ 55% 267 -6.2 352
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 166 B+ 45% 36 +3.3 43
Three Pointers 45% 85 B- 36% 100 +3.7 63
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 322 C+ +1.9 106
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 146
Second Chance C- 28.2% 242 C 1.02 184 C- 0.29 234
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 120
Freethrows D 0.26 321 B- 74% 119 D+ 0.19 292
Total Offense C -0.1 164

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 34% 352 C- 12.2% 253
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 352 C+ 4.2% 120
Three Pointers F+ 73% 350 C 0.9% 187
Total F 43% 356 C+ 5.1% 113

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 20 B- 55% 100 +2.7 270
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 168 D 42% 304 +0.8 255
Three Pointers 34% 349 B 31% 68 -5.0 14
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 254 B- -2.0 103
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 125
Second Chance C 30.4% 174 C 1.04 203 C 0.32 197
Turnovers C- 15.8% 237
Freethrows B 0.27 62 D- 76% 349 C+ 0.20 112
Total Defense C +0.5 155

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 33 D+ 8.2% 291
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 252 D 2.7% 305
Three Pointers B- 80% 77 C+ 1.3% 98
Total B+ 47% 27 D+ 4.7% 249

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 318 17.0 140
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 248 0.16 153
Improvement +0.3 #172 -1.1 #256

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 180 150 126
Conference Record 10 - 8 12 - 6 13 - 5
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20% 21% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 80% 91% 62%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 8% 11% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round20% 21% 17%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 37 - 58 - 10
Quad 48 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 72 @Colorado L 78 - 84 16% -1  39% 0 - 1 B- +5 B+ +7 A F+ C+ C- -2 C+ C- C-
 Sun, Nov 9 236 Denver L 73 - 75 77% +2  67% 0 - 2 D -9 D -5 D- A- C D+ -4 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 75 @Stanford L 68 - 77 17% -4  17% 0 - 3 C+ +2 D -6 B- D+ D A- +8 A C- C+
 Sat, Nov 15 65 @Boise St. L 58 - 62 15% -2  30% 0 - 4 B- +8 D- -7 C- F B- A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 264 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 62% +3  88% 1 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +3 D+ C+ A C+ +0 C C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 28 @Utah St. L 81 - 84 OT 6% -3  8% 1 - 5 A- +15 B +6 B- C- C+ A +10 A- A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 121 St. Thomas W 82 - 74 53% +1  57% 2 - 5 B- +8 B +7 C+ C A+ C+ +1 D A A+
 Sat, Dec 6 338 @Oral Roberts L 68 - 72 81% +6  81% 2 - 6 D- -13 D -5 C+ F F D- -8 B- D- C
 Sat, Dec 13 160 @Oregon St. L 57 - 67 41% -4  4% 2 - 7 D+ -7 F -12 F B D B +4 A+ F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 231 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 55% +3  67% 3 - 7 C+ +2 B- +4 F+ A A C- -2 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 156 Northern Colorado W 89 - 75 63% +6  90% 4 - 7 1 - 0 B +11 B+ +9 B+ A+ B+ C+ +2 A- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 311 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 87% +7  78% 5 - 7 2 - 0 C- -3 C+ +2 B- C A- D+ -4 C- C- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 201 @Eastern Washington W 68 - 64 49% -0  41% 6 - 7 3 - 0 C+ +5 D+ -4 C- D+ F A +9 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 186 @Idaho L 89 - 92 47% +9  90% 6 - 8 3 - 1 C- -2 A+ +16 A+ C D- F -18 F B F
 Sat, Jan 17 183 Montana W 76 - 67 68% +0  51% 7 - 8 4 - 1 C+ +5 C- -1 C- C- B- B+ +6 B A+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 156 @Northern Colorado W 73 - 68 40% +4  71% 8 - 8 5 - 1 B- +8 C+ +3 B+ F B- B+ +5 A F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 261 Idaho St. W 74 - 62 81% +5  85% 9 - 8 6 - 1 C+ +3 C +0 D+ B A B +5 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 224 Weber St. W 91 - 88 75% +2  63% 10 - 8 7 - 1 C- -4 A- +10 A+ B- C- F -13 F B F
 Thu, Jan 29 271 @Sacramento St. L 80 - 83 64% -3  22% 10 - 9 7 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 C- D+ D+ D -5 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 142 @Portland St. L 54 - 63 36% -3  23% 10 - 10 7 - 3 D+ -5 D- -8 F B- D C+ +2 F A+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 186 Idaho W 73 - 66 69% +9  89% 11 - 10 8 - 3 C+ +2 D- -8 F C+ B A +10 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 201 Eastern Washington L 71 - 72 71% -2  25% 11 - 11 8 - 4 D+ -6 D -4 C- F A+ C- -2 B F D+
 Sat, Feb 14 183 @Montana W 82 - 71 45% +3  66% 12 - 11 9 - 4 B+ +13 A +14 A F A+ C -0 C+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 19 224 @Weber St. L 79 - 82 OT 54% +0  40% 12 - 12 9 - 5 C- -4 C- -2 B- F C C- -2 C C- F+
 Sat, Feb 21 261 @Idaho St. W 73 - 70 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 142 Portland St. W 69 - 67 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 271 Sacramento St. W 83 - 73 81%
 Mon, Mar 2 311 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 68 72%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 6 +0 C +0 D C+ D C +1 B- B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ B+ B- C+ 30% 38% 45% D C+ C- C C- C+ D B- D+ C B- D B B- 45% 21% 34% D+ C+ C C C C- B D- C+
1.09 55% 45% 36% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.0 .29 16% .26 74% .19 1.08 55% 42% 31% -2 0 0.99 30% 1.0 .32 16% .27 76% .20
Nov
3		 Colorado B+ B A+ C+ A+ 40% 27% 33% C A D F F+ C+ C B+ C+ C- D+ F A+ B- 58% 20% 22% F+ C+ D+ C+ C- C- F A- F
1.13 62% 64% 35% +9 -1 1.19 21% 0.8 .18 16% .29 76% .22 1.22 65% 56% 20% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.9 .32 13% .65 69% .45
Nov
9		 Denver D B A- F D- 34% 17% 49% D+ D- D A+ A- C F C+ F D+ F+ C+ F F 59% 27% 14% F F F F F A+ A A+ A+
1.14 67% 44% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.7 .48 12% .12 71% .09 1.17 66% 38% 57% +9 +1 1.22 38% 1.3 .50 22% .20 60% .12
Nov
12		 Stanford D D A+ C- B 30% 28% 42% D B- F A+ D+ D F F F A- C A+ A+ A 48% 17% 35% B- A A+ F C- C+ C D C-
0.91 50% 53% 32% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 21% .22 54% .12 1.03 58% 22% 26% -7 +1 0.91 25% 1.4 .36 16% .34 76% .26
Nov
15		 Boise St. D- D+ D+ B+ C 25% 36% 40% F C- B- F F B- F+ F F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 27% 16% 58% A- A+ A+ C A+ D- D F F
0.92 54% 37% 38% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.3 .08 14% .20 55% .11 0.98 50% 14% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 1.0 .21 13% .40 91% .36
Nov
21		 Long Beach St. C+ A D D+ C 32% 32% 36% F D+ D- A+ C+ A D C- D C+ D- C+ D+ D+ 28% 46% 26% A+ C D A- C+ D+ C- D+ D+
1.13 71% 35% 32% +2 -2 1.02 22% 1.7 .38 13% .32 74% .23 1.04 67% 36% 36% +2 -4 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 16% .29 76% .22
Nov
29		 Utah St. B D- A C+ B 22% 22% 55% D+ B- B- D- C- C+ C- A+ B A A+ F C- A+ 54% 7% 39% D- A- A+ D A+ D F+ B- D
1.05 46% 46% 34% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .29 21% .29 89% .26 1.08 43% 75% 36% -4 +3 1.00 24% 1.3 .32 13% .39 69% .27
Dec
3		 St. Thomas B F C A+ B- 27% 17% 56% D C+ D+ B+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ F C+ B D- 38% 6% 56% C- D B- A+ A A+ C C+ C
1.21 46% 38% 41% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.3 .34 10% .48 76% .36 1.09 89% 33% 32% +10 +2 1.26 19% 0.4 .07 21% .30 69% .20
Dec
6		 Oral Roberts D A- A D B- 37% 12% 51% C- C+ B+ F F F D- D+ D- D- B- C- A+ B- 51% 21% 28% C- B- F A D- C F F F
1.06 67% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.10 40% 0.6 .26 22% .26 69% .18 1.12 50% 40% 23% -8 +1 0.87 41% 0.8 .32 19% .50 92% .46
Dec
13		 Oregon St. F F A+ F+ F 37% 18% 45% C- F D+ A+ B D D F F B B D A+ A+ 40% 18% 43% C- A+ A F F C- F D- F
0.89 28% 56% 27% -12 0 0.78 28% 1.4 .38 17% .28 60% .17 1.04 50% 43% 18% -13 +1 0.78 18% 2.8 .50 17% .53 82% .43
Dec
16		 Cal Poly B- A+ F F F 30% 14% 55% C- F+ C A+ A A A+ D- A- C- A+ C- A+ A+ 45% 6% 49% D A+ F F F F F A- F
1.16 76% 25% 23% -6 0 0.91 32% 1.5 .48 11% .39 68% .27 1.11 41% 33% 25% -15 +2 0.78 40% 1.6 .64 15% .51 71% .36
Jan
1		 Northern Colorado B+ C+ A+ D B+ 39% 18% 43% C- B+ D A+ A+ B+ D- D F+ C+ B- A+ C+ A 40% 19% 40% C A- D- F F C+ C+ F D
1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20 1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Northern Arizona C+ F A+ A B 29% 13% 58% D+ B- C C C A- D A+ B- D+ C D+ F D- 37% 42% 21% A+ C- D+ C C- F+ A- B A-
1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24 1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13
Jan
8		 Eastern Washington D+ C B- B C+ 31% 28% 41% F C- A- F D+ F A+ B+ A+ A A+ F A+ A+ 48% 20% 32% D A+ D- A+ B+ D- C- F F
1.05 58% 45% 38% +4 -2 1.08 41% 0.8 .33 26% .44 81% .36 0.99 38% 50% 25% -12 +1 0.80 36% 0.7 .26 15% .31 94% .29
Jan
10		 Idaho A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 28% 26% C+ A+ B+ F C D- B- A B+ F F+ C- F F 44% 14% 42% D F D- A+ B F A- F+ B
1.30 65% 57% 54% +16 0 1.34 32% 0.9 .28 18% .37 81% .30 1.35 65% 38% 44% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.7 .22 7% .22 79% .17
Jan
17		 Montana C- F+ D+ A+ C+ 30% 38% 32% F C- C- C C- B- A- A A B+ A+ F D+ A 58% 4% 38% F B A+ B- A+ C+ B+ F C
1.07 50% 35% 41% 0 -3 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 14% .36 77% .28 0.94 45% 100% 37% -4 +4 1.02 10% 1.0 .10 21% .25 93% .23
Jan
19		 Northern Colorado C+ F+ C A+ B 40% 10% 50% B B+ F F F B- B- C B- B+ A+ B C+ A+ 51% 16% 33% D- A F B- F C+ A+ A+ A+
1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27 1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02
Jan
22		 Idaho St. C F C+ A D+ 35% 22% 43% D+ D+ B- B- B A F F F B C+ B+ A A 44% 7% 49% F B+ C+ F F+ D- D+ A+ B-
1.18 44% 45% 41% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.2 .40 10% .18 70% .12 0.99 55% 33% 27% -7 +2 0.93 31% 1.3 .41 14% .34 61% .21
Jan
24		 Weber St. A- B A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% D+ A+ A- D B- C- B- A+ A+ F B+ F F F 61% 4% 35% F F A- C- B F B- F C
1.29 67% 56% 46% +15 0 1.31 38% 1.0 .38 17% .36 90% .32 1.25 48% 50% 58% +7 +4 1.24 25% 1.0 .25 11% .30 79% .24
Jan
29		 Sacramento St. C- F A+ A+ C 26% 20% 54% F C- C D- D+ D+ C D C- D D+ F F F 41% 30% 30% C F A+ A+ A+ C A+ C- A+
1.11 29% 55% 41% +2 -1 1.04 34% 1.0 .34 18% .32 68% .22 1.16 59% 63% 50% +15 -1 1.30 11% 0.7 .07 15% .23 79% .18
Jan
31		 Portland St. D- F A F D- 24% 37% 39% F F B+ D+ B- D F A+ D- C+ D F F F 44% 23% 33% B- F F+ A+ A+ B+ B+ B- B+
0.88 45% 47% 17% -10 -3 0.76 36% 0.9 .33 21% .27 85% .23 1.03 63% 50% 43% +9 0 1.21 37% 0.5 .17 23% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho D- C D- F F+ 35% 44% 21% F F F A+ C+ B A+ A+ A+ A B F A+ B+ 57% 16% 28% F B- A- A+ A+ B+ A+ F A
1.00 59% 33% 20% -6 -3 0.83 13% 2.3 .30 12% .47 87% .41 0.91 52% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.97 21% 0.6 .12 19% .15 89% .14
Feb
7		 Eastern Washington D F A+ A- C- 36% 18% 46% D+ C- F F F A+ C D- D+ C- A- C+ F B+ 54% 22% 24% D- B F+ F F D+ A F A-
1.09 44% 56% 39% +2 0 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 8% .33 70% .23 1.11 48% 36% 42% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.4 .52 17% .20 82% .17
Feb
14		 Montana A A+ C+ A+ A+ 21% 43% 36% F A F F+ F A+ B+ D+ B- C D- B B B- 37% 12% 51% D+ C+ B- B- B- F C F D
1.24 82% 39% 47% +13 -4 1.19 18% 0.8 .15 8% .34 67% .23 1.08 67% 33% 32% +1 +1 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 15% .30 88% .27
Feb
19		 Weber St. C- A+ B F+ B 34% 26% 40% F+ B- F F F C D+ B+ C- C- D+ D- A- D+ 46% 30% 25% A C F+ B C- F+ B D+ B-
1.09 83% 43% 29% +7 -1 1.13 19% 0.8 .16 16% .30 78% .23 1.13 62% 41% 29% +1 -1 1.02 37% 0.9 .33 12% .30 74% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.1 6.5 7.6 1st
2nd 2.8 23.3 38.1 16.7 80.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.5 3.9 8.4 3rd
4th 0.4 1.9 0.2 2.5 4th
5th 0.5 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.1 9.2 27.3 39.3 23.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 27.9% 6.5    1.0 5.5
12-6 2.9% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 1.0 6.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 23.1% 25.3% 25.3% 13.3 0.0 0.4 3.4 2.0 0.1 17.3
12-6 39.3% 20.3% 20.3% 14.1 0.0 1.2 4.7 2.1 0.0 31.3
11-7 27.3% 16.8% 16.8% 14.7 0.1 1.3 3.1 0.1 22.7
10-8 9.2% 12.3% 12.3% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 8.1
9-9 1.1% 12.2% 12.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 14.1 80.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.9% 100.0% 13.3 0.1 7.2 57.6 33.7 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.6%
Lose Out 0.6%