Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#210
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#316
Pace65.2#274
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#179
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#238
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 13.4% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 45.2% 50.0% 22.9%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 68.0% 50.5%
Conference Champion 15.1% 16.6% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 5.5% 11.3%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 2.3%
First Round12.2% 13.5% 6.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 82.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 411 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 95   @ Colorado L 78-84 15%     0 - 1 +2.4 +10.7 -8.4
  Nov 09, 2025 327   Denver W 78-68 82%    
  Nov 12, 2025 90   @ Stanford L 63-74 15%    
  Nov 15, 2025 53   @ Boise St. L 61-77 7%    
  Nov 21, 2025 264   @ Long Beach St. L 66-67 50%    
  Nov 29, 2025 52   @ Utah St. L 65-81 7%    
  Dec 03, 2025 161   St. Thomas W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 06, 2025 315   @ Oral Roberts W 73-70 60%    
  Dec 13, 2025 123   @ Oregon St. L 63-71 25%    
  Dec 16, 2025 272   @ Cal Poly W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 01, 2026 184   Northern Colorado W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 03, 2026 263   Northern Arizona W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 08, 2026 207   @ Eastern Washington L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 10, 2026 206   @ Idaho L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 17, 2026 192   Montana W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 19, 2026 184   @ Northern Colorado L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 22, 2026 288   Idaho St. W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 24, 2026 283   Weber St. W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 29, 2026 274   @ Sacramento St. W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 31, 2026 199   @ Portland St. L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 05, 2026 206   Idaho W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 07, 2026 207   Eastern Washington W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 14, 2026 192   @ Montana L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 19, 2026 283   @ Weber St. W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 21, 2026 288   @ Idaho St. W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 26, 2026 199   Portland St. W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 28, 2026 274   Sacramento St. W 71-65 70%    
  Mar 02, 2026 263   @ Northern Arizona L 70-71 49%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 2.9 4.0 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2 15.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 4.6 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.3 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.4 3.3 0.7 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 5.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 2.2 0.4 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.6 6.5 8.5 9.9 10.9 11.4 11.1 10.1 8.0 6.0 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 97.0% 2.1    1.9 0.2
15-3 87.3% 3.6    2.9 0.7 0.0
14-4 66.3% 4.0    2.5 1.3 0.2
13-5 36.5% 2.9    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 12.3% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 9.7 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 57.8% 55.6% 2.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0%
17-1 0.9% 56.3% 56.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.1% 42.7% 42.7% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.1% 38.7% 38.7% 13.5 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5
14-4 6.0% 30.8% 30.8% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.2
13-5 8.0% 23.1% 23.1% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 6.2
12-6 10.1% 18.4% 18.4% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 8.2
11-7 11.1% 12.0% 12.0% 16.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 9.8
10-8 11.4% 8.8% 8.8% 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 10.4
9-9 10.9% 5.7% 5.7% 18.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 10.3
8-10 9.9% 2.9% 2.9% 17.1 0.0 0.3 9.7
7-11 8.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 8.3
6-12 6.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 6.4
5-13 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.3 3.3 3.0 87.7 0.0%