Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#120
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#134
Pace68.0#185
Improvement+1.1#57

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#169
First Shot+1.0#143
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#257
Layup/Dunks+1.7#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#296
Freethrows+2.5#30
Improvement+0.5#98

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#100
First Shot+2.8#88
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#188
Layups/Dunks+2.4#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#39
Freethrows-0.7#243
Improvement+0.6#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.4% 46.2% 39.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 37.3% 39.6% 20.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round45.4% 46.2% 39.3%
Second Round5.0% 5.2% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 116   @ Grand Canyon L 54-60 39%     0 - 1 -0.4 -9.8 +8.5
  Nov 13, 2022 165   @ Long Beach St. W 70-57 49%     1 - 1 +15.9 +2.0 +14.5
  Nov 15, 2022 48   @ Oregon L 51-81 17%     1 - 2 -17.3 -15.9 -1.7
  Nov 20, 2022 322   @ North Dakota W 81-71 80%     2 - 2 +3.6 +7.9 -3.8
  Nov 25, 2022 138   UNC Greensboro L 66-77 54%     2 - 3 -9.3 -2.4 -6.7
  Nov 26, 2022 133   Quinnipiac L 53-70 53%     2 - 4 -15.1 -17.6 +2.3
  Nov 27, 2022 121   Middle Tennessee L 71-72 50%     2 - 5 +1.7 -0.6 +2.3
  Nov 30, 2022 114   @ Southern Utah W 86-83 38%     3 - 5 +8.9 +6.2 +2.4
  Dec 08, 2022 266   St. Thomas W 82-65 85%     4 - 5 +8.7 +1.4 +7.3
  Dec 10, 2022 310   Nebraska Omaha W 82-54 89%     5 - 5 +17.2 +10.0 +9.7
  Dec 20, 2022 9   @ Arizona L 64-85 8%     5 - 6 -2.5 -6.5 +5.8
  Dec 29, 2022 309   Idaho W 72-58 89%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +3.2 -3.4 +7.8
  Dec 31, 2022 161   Eastern Washington L 67-70 69%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -5.4 -5.4 -0.1
  Jan 05, 2023 268   @ Northern Colorado W 77-56 70%     7 - 7 2 - 1 +18.2 -0.8 +18.7
  Jan 07, 2023 293   @ Northern Arizona W 69-54 75%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +10.7 -7.1 +18.0
  Jan 12, 2023 283   Idaho St. W 81-68 87%     9 - 7 4 - 1 +3.7 +6.6 -2.4
  Jan 14, 2023 213   Weber St. W 67-52 77%     10 - 7 5 - 1 +10.1 +0.5 +11.1
  Jan 16, 2023 309   @ Idaho L 70-74 78%     10 - 8 5 - 2 -9.3 -11.7 +2.6
  Jan 21, 2023 189   @ Montana W 67-64 54%     11 - 8 6 - 2 +4.6 +2.7 +2.3
  Jan 26, 2023 247   @ Portland St. W 75-66 67%     12 - 8 7 - 2 +7.3 +5.2 +2.6
  Jan 28, 2023 219   @ Sacramento St. W 72-65 59%     13 - 8 8 - 2 +7.2 +8.7 -0.5
  Feb 02, 2023 293   Northern Arizona W 76-64 88%    
  Feb 04, 2023 268   Northern Colorado W 79-68 86%    
  Feb 09, 2023 213   @ Weber St. W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 283   @ Idaho St. W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 18, 2023 189   Montana W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 23, 2023 219   Sacramento St. W 69-61 78%    
  Feb 25, 2023 247   Portland St. W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 27, 2023 161   @ Eastern Washington L 72-73 48%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.4 10.1 16.4 8.3 37.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 7.7 18.5 20.2 7.9 0.4 55.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 1.2 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.4 10.4 22.0 30.3 24.3 8.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 95.1% 8.3    6.8 1.5
15-3 67.6% 16.4    9.6 6.8 0.0
14-4 33.2% 10.1    3.9 5.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 10.7% 2.4    0.4 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.3% 37.3 20.8 15.8 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 8.7% 60.3% 60.3% 12.8 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 0.9 0.0 3.5
15-3 24.3% 52.7% 52.7% 13.5 0.0 0.8 5.9 5.6 0.5 11.5
14-4 30.3% 46.0% 46.0% 13.8 0.2 3.8 8.3 1.6 0.0 16.4
13-5 22.0% 39.4% 39.4% 14.1 0.0 1.4 5.3 2.0 0.0 13.4
12-6 10.4% 33.3% 33.3% 14.5 0.1 1.6 1.7 0.1 7.0
11-7 3.4% 30.4% 30.4% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 2.4
10-8 0.7% 26.8% 26.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
9-9 0.1% 24.2% 24.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.4% 45.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 2.5 14.0 21.8 6.7 0.2 54.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.7% 60.3% 12.8 0.0 2.0 16.8 31.5 9.9 0.1