Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#168
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#225
Pace65.2#295
Improvement-1.9#299

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#191
First Shot-1.4#210
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks-3.5#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#73
Freethrows-3.4#338
Improvement-0.2#193

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#148
First Shot-0.2#170
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#148
Layups/Dunks-1.4#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#16
Freethrows-2.4#328
Improvement-1.7#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 19.1% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 49.4% 59.5% 33.4%
.500 or above in Conference 78.3% 86.0% 66.1%
Conference Champion 23.1% 30.4% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.6% 5.5%
First Four2.1% 1.5% 2.9%
First Round16.0% 18.5% 12.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 61.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 54 - 10
Quad 410 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 73 @Colorado L 78-84 15%     0 - 1 +4.7 +9.4 -4.7
  Sun, Nov 9 290 Denver L 73-75 81%     0 - 2 -11.7 -3.3 -8.6
  Wed, Nov 12 81 @Stanford L 68-77 16%     0 - 3 +0.9 -3.9 +5.4
  Sat, Nov 15 51 @Boise St. L 58-62 10%     0 - 4 +9.1 -1.0 +9.7
  Fri, Nov 21 275 @Long Beach St. W 78-72 60%     1 - 4 +2.8 +3.3 -0.4
  Sat, Nov 29 33 @Utah St. L 81-84 OT 7%     1 - 5 +13.5 +7.6 +6.1
  Wed, Dec 3 135 St. Thomas W 82-74 53%     2 - 5 +6.7 +10.7 -3.7
  Sat, Dec 6 303 @Oral Roberts L 68-72 66%     2 - 6 -9.0 -1.6 -7.8
  Sat, Dec 13 154 @Oregon St. L 57-67 35%     2 - 7 -6.6 -9.1 +1.6
  Tue, Dec 16 257 @Cal Poly W 83-80 57%     3 - 7 +0.6 +6.7 -6.1
  Thu, Jan 1 171 Northern Colorado W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Jan 3 289 Northern Arizona W 73-64 81%    
  Thu, Jan 8 258 @Eastern Washington W 76-74 57%    
  Sat, Jan 10 177 @Idaho L 69-71 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 209 Montana W 77-71 70%    
  Mon, Jan 19 171 @Northern Colorado L 71-74 39%    
  Thu, Jan 22 175 Idaho St. W 70-66 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 223 Weber St. W 76-70 72%    
  Thu, Jan 29 276 @Sacramento St. W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Jan 31 173 @Portland St. L 66-69 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 177 Idaho W 72-68 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 258 Eastern Washington W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 209 @Montana L 73-74 49%    
  Thu, Feb 19 223 @Weber St. W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 175 @Idaho St. L 67-69 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 173 Portland St. W 69-66 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 276 Sacramento St. W 78-69 78%    
  Mon, Mar 2 289 @Northern Arizona W 70-67 61%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.7 6.2 4.4 2.2 0.7 0.1 23.1 1st
2nd 0.6 4.1 6.7 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 6.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 5.9 8.8 11.8 13.2 13.8 13.2 10.9 7.6 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
16-2 99.1% 2.2    2.1 0.1
15-3 94.2% 4.4    3.9 0.5 0.0
14-4 82.4% 6.2    4.5 1.6 0.1
13-5 52.6% 5.7    2.7 2.4 0.6 0.0
12-6 23.8% 3.2    0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.0% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.1% 23.1 14.9 6.0 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 52.3% 52.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 45.9% 45.9% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.2% 45.3% 45.3% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.7% 37.8% 37.8% 13.7 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 2.9
14-4 7.6% 30.1% 30.1% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 5.3
13-5 10.9% 24.3% 24.3% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.1 8.3
12-6 13.2% 19.8% 19.8% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.2 10.6
11-7 13.8% 16.4% 16.4% 15.1 0.2 1.7 0.3 11.6
10-8 13.2% 12.0% 12.0% 15.6 0.6 1.0 11.7
9-9 11.8% 10.5% 10.5% 15.9 0.1 1.2 10.5
8-10 8.8% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.3
7-11 5.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 5.7
6-12 3.7% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 3.6
5-13 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 4.7 5.8 3.6 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.4 4.3 56.5 30.4 8.7