Pacific
West Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#208
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#187
Pace73.2#58
Improvement+0.9#87

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#141
First Shot+2.6#88
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#286
Layup/Dunks-0.6#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#60
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement+0.0#196

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#259
First Shot-2.3#249
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#250
Layups/Dunks-3.3#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#195
Freethrows+0.1#174
Improvement+0.8#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 9.0% 13.9% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 27.9% 39.5% 11.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.0% 2.8%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 58.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 48 - 11
Quad 45 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 90   @ Stanford L 78-88 17%     0 - 1 -1.8 +3.7 -4.8
  Nov 13, 2022 241   @ North Dakota St. W 91-86 49%     1 - 1 +3.5 +5.9 -2.9
  Nov 15, 2022 322   @ North Dakota W 93-63 67%     2 - 1 +23.6 +13.6 +9.2
  Nov 18, 2022 154   Cal St. Fullerton L 91-94 2OT 51%     2 - 2 -5.1 +3.0 -7.6
  Nov 22, 2022 290   Mount St. Mary's L 65-69 77%     2 - 3 -13.6 -7.6 -6.0
  Nov 25, 2022 309   Idaho L 81-84 80%     2 - 4 -13.8 +0.9 -14.7
  Nov 28, 2022 298   Cal Poly L 58-62 79%     2 - 5 -14.3 -12.9 -1.6
  Dec 01, 2022 174   @ UC Davis W 74-72 33%     3 - 5 +4.6 -0.8 +5.3
  Dec 03, 2022 101   @ UC Santa Barbara L 71-82 19%     3 - 6 -3.7 +5.9 -10.0
  Dec 06, 2022 293   Northern Arizona L 69-73 77%     3 - 7 -13.7 -9.9 -3.9
  Dec 10, 2022 169   Fresno St. W 76-72 53%     4 - 7 +1.3 +10.0 -8.4
  Dec 17, 2022 119   San Jose St. W 59-58 43%     5 - 7 +1.0 -4.0 +5.1
  Dec 20, 2022 357   @ Lamar W 74-65 85%     6 - 7 -3.8 -4.4 +0.8
  Dec 29, 2022 81   BYU L 49-69 29%     6 - 8 0 - 1 -16.2 -19.3 +3.2
  Dec 31, 2022 91   Loyola Marymount W 78-72 33%     7 - 8 1 - 1 +8.7 +1.8 +6.6
  Jan 05, 2023 216   @ San Diego W 84-82 41%     8 - 8 2 - 1 +2.5 +1.3 +1.0
  Jan 07, 2023 190   @ Pepperdine W 80-75 37%     9 - 8 3 - 1 +6.6 +0.4 +5.8
  Jan 14, 2023 93   Santa Clara L 81-92 33%     9 - 9 3 - 2 -8.4 +2.4 -9.9
  Jan 19, 2023 88   @ San Francisco L 57-78 17%     9 - 10 3 - 3 -12.6 -11.5 -1.4
  Jan 21, 2023 13   Gonzaga L 90-99 10%     9 - 11 3 - 4 +3.2 +14.8 -11.1
  Jan 28, 2023 93   @ Santa Clara W 95-89 18%     10 - 11 4 - 4 +14.1 +14.9 -1.5
  Feb 02, 2023 190   Pepperdine W 81-79 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 81   @ BYU L 69-80 14%    
  Feb 09, 2023 166   @ Portland L 78-83 32%    
  Feb 11, 2023 216   San Diego W 83-80 63%    
  Feb 16, 2023 88   San Francisco L 75-80 34%    
  Feb 18, 2023 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 70-80 17%    
  Feb 23, 2023 12   @ St. Mary's L 57-77 3%    
  Feb 25, 2023 166   Portland W 81-80 54%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.7 6.8 3.7 0.3 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.2 7.4 9.0 0.7 0.0 17.4 5th
6th 0.0 4.6 15.0 2.1 0.0 21.8 6th
7th 1.9 15.2 5.4 0.1 22.5 7th
8th 0.6 9.3 6.5 0.1 16.5 8th
9th 2.3 2.6 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 3.0 13.8 26.6 28.7 18.9 7.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2
10-6 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 1.6
9-7 7.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 7.3
8-8 18.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 18.8
7-9 28.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 28.6
6-10 26.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 26.6
5-11 13.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.8
4-12 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0% 0.2% 16.0 0.2