UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #187
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #163
Pace 70.7 #145
Improvement -1.2 #248

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #176 B+ B- D+ D+ C
Defense #214 D+ D C B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.29 #58 +0.9 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #201 0.87 #57 +0.7 #144
Three Pointers 45% #111 1.10 #77 +3.9 #65
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #55 +5.5 #53
Freethrows 18.6 #113 76% #85 14.2 #92
Second Chance 25.5% #314 1.12 #99 0.28 #250
Turnovers 17.9% #254
Total Offense -0.2 #176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #122 1.19 #208 -1.8 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #293 0.59 #14 +2.8 #15
Three Pointers 43% #132 1.13 #315 -3.4 #303
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #260 -2.5 #259
Freethrows 19.1 #274 75% #278 14.3 #293
Second Chance 31.7% #225 1.00 #139 0.32 #179
Turnovers 18.1% #98
Total Defense -1.3 #214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #194 1.3% #288
Shot Type Make % Effect 10.8% #37 3.6% #246
Possession Length 16.0 #70 18.0 #291
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #155 0.19 #239
Improvement +1.9 #68 -3.1 #339

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.4% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 57.9% 73.9% 48.5%
.500 or above in Conference 54.8% 71.4% 45.1%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.8% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.6% 6.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.7% 5.3% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Away) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 152 North Dakota St. W 80-68 55%     2.0   1 - 0 +9.2 +7.3 +2.1
  Sun, Nov 9 251 @Portland L 63-67 53%     0.1   1 - 1 -6.3 -9.8 +3.5
  Fri, Nov 14 294 Sacramento St. W 77-73 80%     -1.5   2 - 1 -6.4 -3.3 -3.3
  Tue, Nov 18 84 @Nevada W 75-71 14%     -0.1   3 - 1 +14.0 +2.1 +11.6
  Fri, Nov 21 79 @Colorado L 79-95 14%     -5.9   3 - 2 -5.6 +9.0 -14.7
  Mon, Nov 24 315 Louisiana W 77-56 83%     8.0   4 - 2 +9.2 +7.4 +3.4
  Thu, Dec 4 96 @Hawaii L 69-75 18%     -5.5   4 - 3 0 - 1 +2.4 +2.9 -0.4
  Sat, Dec 13 54 @Oregon L 62-104 9%     -30.4   4 - 4 -29.0 -6.7 -20.9
  Wed, Dec 17 112 Seattle L 78-79 41%     -3.9   4 - 5 -0.2 +5.6 -5.7
  Sun, Dec 21 179 @Idaho St. W 93-83 38%     8.3   5 - 5 +11.7 +24.8 -12.5
  Thu, Jan 1 203 Cal St. Northridge W 89-80 66%     5.6   6 - 5 1 - 1 +3.3 +5.5 -3.0
  Sat, Jan 3 292 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79-81 80%     1.6   6 - 6 1 - 2 -12.3 -0.6 -11.6
  Thu, Jan 8 169 @UC Santa Barbara L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 247 @Cal Poly W 83-82 52%    
  Thu, Jan 15 258 Cal St. Fullerton W 86-79 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 127 UC Irvine L 72-73 47%    
  Thu, Jan 22 89 UC San Diego L 73-78 32%    
  Sat, Jan 24 298 UC Riverside W 80-71 80%    
  Thu, Jan 29 203 @Cal St. Northridge L 80-82 44%    
  Sat, Jan 31 292 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-75 60%    
  Thu, Feb 5 169 UC Santa Barbara W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 247 Cal Poly W 86-79 73%    
  Thu, Feb 12 89 @UC San Diego L 70-81 16%    
  Sat, Feb 14 259 Long Beach St. W 78-71 75%    
  Thu, Feb 19 258 @Cal St. Fullerton W 83-82 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 298 @UC Riverside W 77-74 61%    
  Thu, Feb 26 96 Hawaii L 70-74 36%    
  Thu, Mar 5 259 @Long Beach St. W 75-74 54%    
  Sat, Mar 7 127 @UC Irvine L 69-76 27%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.9 5.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 19.0 4th
5th 0.3 3.4 7.7 5.4 1.2 0.1 18.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 6.8 4.3 0.8 0.0 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.3 3.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.4 8.9 12.2 14.6 15.8 14.1 10.4 7.4 4.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 85.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 63.2% 0.4    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.7% 30.1% 30.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-5 2.0% 19.9% 19.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.6
14-6 4.2% 15.4% 15.4% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.6
13-7 7.4% 8.5% 8.5% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.8
12-8 10.4% 6.3% 6.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.8
11-9 14.1% 3.1% 3.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 13.6
10-10 15.8% 1.9% 1.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 15.5
9-11 14.6% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.4
8-12 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 12.1
7-13 8.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.9
6-14 5.4% 5.4
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 96.3 0.0%