UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.1 176
Results Rating +0.0 157
Consistency 0.14 102
Pace 70.2 130
Improvement -1.1 232

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 179 C+ D+ D+ B+ C
Defense C 185 D+ C B C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 243 C+ 59% 128 -0.7 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 181 D+ 35% 262 -0.6 213
Three Pointers 43% 136 B- 36% 86 +2.8 89
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 206 C+ +1.5 118
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 132
Second Chance D+ 27.2% 269 C- 1.00 224 D+ 0.27 265
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 189
Other Turnovers D 8.6% 327
Turnovers D+ 18.1% 273
Freethrows B 0.34 60 B 76% 74 B+ 0.26 41
Total Offense C -0.7 179

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 112 D- 14.2% 335
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 41 C+ 4.5% 150
Three Pointers B 90% 50 B+ 0.2% 27
Total B 63% 45 C- 6.2% 247


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 94 C 58% 178 +2.0 250
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 305 C 38% 194 -1.5 71
Three Pointers 41% 166 D 37% 298 +1.9 278
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 310 C- +1.6 249
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 262
Second Chance C- 31.1% 221 B- 0.98 106 C 0.30 161
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.8% 158
Other Turnovers A- 9.1% 17
Turnovers B 18.9% 59
Freethrows C- 0.32 234 D+ 74% 265 C- 0.24 250
Total Defense C -0.4 185

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 274 D 7.8% 307
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 261 C 5.2% 140
Three Pointers C+ 81% 113 C 0.9% 151
Total D+ 59% 254 D+ 4.5% 256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.5 88 17.6 234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 147 0.20 273
Consistency 0.14 293 0.14 288
Improvement -0.9 239 -0.2 201

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 203 177 154
Results Rating Rank 205 162 137
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 5% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 57.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 42 - 5
Quad 35 - 87 - 12
Quad 410 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 130 North Dakota St. W 80 - 68 50% +2  51% 1 - 0 B +11 B- +5 A+ A F B+ +7 A+ D- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 217 @Portland L 63 - 67 46% +0  38% 1 - 1 C- -4 F -11 F B- F A- +7 B+ B+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 284 Sacramento St. W 77 - 73 80% -2  31% 2 - 1 D+ -6 D- -8 F+ D+ D+ C+ +2 C D+ A-
 Tue, Nov 18 76 @Nevada W 75 - 71 14% -0  35% 3 - 1 A- +15 C +0 A+ F F A+ +14 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 70 @Colorado L 79 - 95 13% -6  5% 3 - 2 C- -5 B+ +8 B- A+ C- F -13 F D C
 Mon, Nov 24 303 Louisiana W 77 - 56 83% +8  98% 4 - 2 B +10 C+ +3 A- D+ B A- +8 B+ B A
 Thu, Dec 4 121 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 25% -6  3% 4 - 3 0 - 1 C -0 C- -2 C- D C+ C+ +2 F C B
 Sat, Dec 13 81 @Oregon L 62 - 104 15% -30  0% 4 - 4 F -32 F+ -9 D- D D F -21 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 17 117 Seattle L 78 - 79 46% -4  14% 4 - 5 C -1 B- +5 A+ F B+ D -6 C- F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 258 @Idaho St. W 93 - 83 55% +8  90% 5 - 5 B- +8 A+ +20 A+ C+ A+ F -11 F C- C-
 Thu, Jan 1 168 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 80 60% +6  76% 6 - 5 1 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 A+ F F+ C -0 C B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 330 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79 - 81 89% +2  67% 6 - 6 1 - 2 F+ -16 D -6 C C- D F -11 D F+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 142 @UC Santa Barbara W 93 - 86 31% -3  42% 7 - 6 2 - 2 B +11 A+ +16 A B C+ D -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 229 @Cal Poly L 78 - 84 49% +6  88% 7 - 7 2 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 D- D C+ D+ -3 B C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 208 Cal St. Fullerton W 74 - 69 66% +9  98% 8 - 7 3 - 3 C -0 F+ -9 D- B F A +9 A D+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 124 UC Irvine W 75 - 72 47% +2  70% 9 - 7 4 - 3 C+ +3 B +7 C- A- A- D+ -4 D+ C B
 Thu, Jan 22 131 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 50% -1  36% 9 - 8 4 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 D D B- C- -3 D- B A
 Sat, Jan 24 277 UC Riverside W 74 - 66 78% +10  98% 10 - 8 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 B+ D F+ C+ +1 B F C
 Thu, Jan 29 168 @Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 94 37% -4  44% 10 - 9 5 - 5 D- -14 D -5 D+ D C- D -6 F A C-
 Sat, Jan 31 330 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 72 75% +0  50% 11 - 9 6 - 5 C -0 C +1 F+ B- B+ C -1 F D B
 Thu, Feb 5 142 UC Santa Barbara W 85 - 75 53% +5  78% 12 - 9 7 - 5 B- +8 A +14 A+ F C+ D+ -5 C- C B-
 Sat, Feb 7 229 Cal Poly W 67 - 58 71% -2  25% 13 - 9 8 - 5 C+ +2 F -12 F+ D- F A+ +15 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Feb 12 131 @UC San Diego L 51 - 68 29% -11  15% 13 - 10 8 - 6 D- -12 F -20 D- F D A- +8 F A A+
 Sat, Feb 14 269 Long Beach St. W 71 - 54 77% +11  98% 14 - 10 9 - 6 B- +8 F+ -9 C+ D F A+ +17 A+ C A
 Thu, Feb 19 208 @Cal St. Fullerton L 92 - 93 44% +8  97% 14 - 11 9 - 7 C -0 A+ +21 B+ C A+ F -21 F C- C+
 Sat, Feb 21 277 @UC Riverside W 78 - 73 59% +4  83% 15 - 11 10 - 7 C +2 C- -2 F+ D C B- +3 A- F+ B+
 Thu, Feb 26 121 Hawaii L 73 - 77 46% -5  9% 15 - 12 10 - 8 C- -4 C+ +2 B- B F D -6 F A+ C
 Thu, Mar 5 269 @Long Beach St. W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 124 @UC Irvine L 67 - 74 26%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 9 -1 C -1 B C+ C C +0 B- B B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ B- C+ 36% 38% 43% C C+ D+ C- D+ D+ B B B+ C C C D C- 42% 17% 41% D D+ C- B- C B C- D+ C-
1.08 59% 35% 36% +1 0 1.05 27% 1.0 .27 18% .34 76% .26 1.09 58% 38% 37% +2 +1 1.07 31% 1.0 .30 19% .32 74% .25
Nov
5		 North Dakota St. B- B+ F A+ A 58% 9% 33% A+ A+ A+ C A F A D B+ B+ C+ B A+ A+ 46% 17% 37% F A+ F A- D- C+ C+ F D
1.16 69% 25% 47% +12 +3 1.31 44% 0.9 .40 26% .33 71% .24 0.99 56% 33% 10% -15 +1 0.74 47% 0.9 .40 17% .25 93% .23
Nov
9		 Portland F F A+ F F 25% 16% 59% C- F B+ D+ B- F C C+ C+ A- A- A+ D+ B+ 38% 19% 43% C+ B+ D A+ B+ A F C+ F
0.91 38% 50% 23% -13 0 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 23% .30 75% .22 0.96 50% 22% 35% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .27 24% .42 73% .30
Nov
14		 Sacramento St. D- C A- F F 41% 8% 51% B- F+ F+ A D+ D+ A+ B+ A+ C+ B C- B- C+ 52% 22% 26% F C D- C+ D+ A- C- D D+
1.06 60% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 26% 1.3 .34 18% .45 78% .35 1.01 50% 36% 31% -6 +1 0.92 31% 1.1 .34 19% .36 81% .29
Nov
18		 Nevada C A B A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% C A+ F F F F A+ B A+ A+ B+ A+ F B- 46% 17% 37% F C+ A A+ A+ A+ F B F
1.01 67% 43% 45% +13 0 1.27 15% 0.8 .11 27% .50 74% .37 0.96 48% 13% 47% -2 +1 1.00 27% 0.4 .12 23% .51 72% .37
Nov
21		 Colorado B+ A+ F+ F C+ 41% 19% 41% B B- C- A+ A+ C- F A+ F+ F D- B+ F F 51% 22% 27% D+ F B+ F D C D+ F F+
1.13 73% 30% 27% 0 0 1.04 24% 2.0 .48 17% .16 100% .16 1.36 68% 33% 60% +15 +1 1.33 27% 1.3 .35 14% .35 86% .30
Nov
24		 Louisiana C+ A A- A A 35% 23% 43% D- A- F A+ D+ B A+ D- A+ A- F A B B 12% 36% 52% A- B+ D+ A+ B A C+ D C
1.18 71% 44% 41% +11 0 1.23 22% 1.3 .30 15% .58 69% .40 0.86 67% 28% 31% -5 -4 0.84 29% 0.6 .17 21% .21 73% .16
Dec
4		 Hawaii C- D B F C 42% 30% 28% D C- D- C D C+ B B- B C+ F A+ F F 49% 15% 37% D+ F A+ F C B F A+ F
0.97 50% 44% 27% -5 -1 0.91 21% 1.0 .21 15% .35 71% .25 1.05 70% 17% 40% +6 +2 1.17 17% 1.8 .31 21% .55 58% .32
Dec
13		 Oregon F+ F C+ F F+ 27% 23% 50% C D- F B D D A- B A F F+ F F F 43% 16% 41% C- F F F F C- F C F
0.86 43% 42% 27% -9 -1 0.83 19% 1.0 .19 19% .33 79% .26 1.44 67% 50% 45% +12 +1 1.29 50% 1.6 .79 17% .45 74% .33
Dec
17		 Seattle B- F+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 15% 46% B- A+ F F F B+ C+ D C D B- B+ F C- 41% 19% 41% C+ C- F C F B+ B- F+ C
1.06 45% 75% 46% +9 +1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 18% .31 68% .21 1.07 55% 30% 41% +1 0 1.06 38% 0.9 .33 20% .27 75% .20
Dec
21		 Idaho St. A+ A+ A F A+ 45% 25% 29% C- A+ D+ A C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F C F F F 35% 8% 58% D F D B C- C- F C- F
1.41 91% 54% 27% +16 0 1.33 26% 1.3 .35 9% .38 91% .35 1.26 57% 67% 48% +14 +1 1.33 37% 0.9 .33 17% .60 76% .46
Jan
1		 Cal St. Northridge B- A C- A+ A+ 24% 29% 47% F A+ D- F F F+ C- B- C C C- A+ C+ C+ 55% 7% 38% F C C- A+ B+ A- F B F
1.16 69% 38% 50% +14 -2 1.25 22% 0.9 .19 20% .29 78% .23 1.05 58% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.02 33% 0.8 .26 21% .43 62% .26
Jan
3		 Cal St. Bakersfield D F C- A C 34% 11% 55% B- C D+ C+ C- D A+ B- A+ F B- C- C- D+ 36% 25% 40% F+ D D+ F F+ F D- F F
1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47 1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36
Jan
8		 UC Santa Barbara A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 22% 22% 57% D- A C A+ B C+ B+ A+ A D F+ B F F 37% 18% 45% C- F A+ C+ A+ F F A+ D+
1.31 91% 36% 41% +13 -1 1.25 27% 1.4 .37 15% .40 83% .33 1.21 68% 33% 52% +15 0 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 13% .40 64% .26
Jan
10		 Cal Poly D+ D F B+ D+ 20% 33% 47% F D- F A- D C+ B- A+ A D+ C- F A B- 28% 11% 60% B+ B A+ F C- F F F F
1.06 55% 28% 38% -1 -3 0.95 23% 1.2 .28 15% .32 85% .27 1.14 60% 50% 28% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.6 .31 14% .44 93% .41
Jan
15		 Cal St. Fullerton F+ C C F F+ 47% 11% 42% B+ D- A- C- B F A+ D- A+ A A A+ D+ A+ 40% 17% 42% D A D+ C D+ A F A+ F
0.99 62% 40% 26% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 27% .57 68% .39 0.93 48% 11% 36% -7 +1 0.88 28% 1.0 .28 20% .54 59% .32
Jan
17		 UC Irvine B D F C C- 28% 21% 51% C- C- C A+ A- A- A+ D- A+ D+ B- D F+ D+ 46% 28% 26% C- D+ C+ D+ C B B+ F D
1.09 46% 20% 33% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.2 .41 15% .51 67% .34 1.05 52% 43% 38% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 20% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 UC San Diego D+ F D A+ D- 38% 16% 47% B- D D+ D- D B- A- D B C- F+ F B D- 45% 8% 47% D- D- F A+ B A F D+ F
0.99 27% 33% 41% -8 +1 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 15% .33 67% .22 1.08 68% 75% 30% +5 +2 1.16 34% 0.6 .22 22% .46 70% .33
Jan
24		 UC Riverside D+ B- F A+ B+ 43% 23% 34% C- B+ D D- D F+ A+ D+ A C+ A B- B A 48% 6% 46% F B C- F F C D A+ B+
1.08 63% 30% 47% +7 0 1.16 26% 0.9 .22 19% .45 68% .31 0.96 46% 33% 30% -9 +3 0.90 28% 1.3 .36 19% .34 53% .18
Jan
29		 Cal St. Northridge D C- F A- C- 35% 25% 40% D+ D+ D D+ D C- A- F C+ D F A+ D- F 48% 8% 43% D- F A A A C- D A+ B-
0.98 55% 21% 39% -2 -1 0.96 23% 1.1 .26 16% .37 64% .24 1.18 76% 20% 38% +10 +2 1.27 26% 0.8 .21 16% .34 52% .18
Jan
31		 Cal St. Bakersfield C C- C+ F+ D- 29% 29% 42% F F+ D A+ B- B+ A+ A A+ C B D- F F 39% 30% 30% D F B F D B C B+ C+
1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42 1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 UC Santa Barbara A B+ F A+ A+ 50% 14% 36% A- A+ C F F C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B F D B 68% 2% 30% F C- F A+ C B- F C F
1.31 68% 17% 56% +14 +2 1.34 28% 0.4 .12 15% .48 88% .42 1.16 53% 100% 38% 0 +4 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 20% .41 76% .31
Feb
7		 Cal Poly F C F F+ F 42% 15% 44% B- F+ B+ F D- F B- A+ A A+ A+ F A A+ 41% 2% 57% D- A+ D A+ B+ A+ B- F D-
0.97 60% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 38% 0.7 .25 22% .31 88% .28 0.84 32% 100% 27% -16 +3 0.76 33% 0.7 .23 27% .28 100% .28
Feb
12		 UC San Diego F F+ F C- D- 41% 25% 34% C- D- F+ F F D F F F A- D+ F F F 50% 15% 35% D+ F A+ C A A+ A F B+
0.73 48% 29% 32% -8 0 0.86 20% 0.2 .04 18% .12 14% .02 0.97 63% 57% 41% +9 +2 1.23 17% 1.0 .17 30% .18 78% .14
Feb
14		 Long Beach St. F+ A+ F C+ C+ 38% 22% 40% C- C+ C F D F F A+ F A+ A- A A+ A+ 40% 36% 24% C+ A+ C+ D+ C A B- B+ B
1.01 74% 27% 35% +4 0 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 21% .18 90% .16 0.77 50% 28% 25% -10 -2 0.78 25% 1.1 .28 23% .24 69% .17
Feb
19		 Cal St. Fullerton A+ A- D+ A+ A- 33% 16% 51% C B+ C+ C- C A+ A+ B- A+ F F F F F 32% 21% 47% C+ F F B+ C- C+ D+ F F
1.38 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.24 30% 1.0 .30 9% .53 75% .40 1.40 87% 70% 45% +24 -1 1.49 32% 0.9 .27 17% .34 89% .31
Feb
21		 UC Riverside C- F A+ F F+ 42% 23% 35% C- F+ F A- D C A+ A- A+ B- B- C A+ A 37% 17% 46% C A- F D+ F+ B+ F C- F
1.05 45% 64% 24% -5 0 0.92 20% 1.1 .23 15% .62 77% .47 0.98 53% 38% 24% -9 0 0.85 35% 0.9 .32 22% .55 75% .41
Feb
26		 Hawaii C+ F A+ B- B- 36% 11% 52% B B- A- C B F A+ A+ A+ D C B- F F 54% 6% 40% F F A A+ A+ C A+ F A-
1.06 44% 60% 35% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 25% .50 81% .41 1.12 59% 33% 50% +10 +3 1.28 22% 0.3 .07 19% .23 85% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 5.9 5.9 3rd
4th 0.9 7.8 8.8 4th
5th 30.3 2.0 32.3 5th
6th 10.4 21.0 31.4 6th
7th 18.8 18.8 7th
8th 3.0 3.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 32.1 52.3 15.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 15.7% 7.9% 7.9% 13.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 14.4
11-9 52.3% 3.3% 3.3% 13.7 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 50.5
10-10 32.1% 2.0% 2.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 31.4
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 13.7 96.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 13.3 2.7 61.0 35.2 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.5%
Lose Out 18.0%