UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#176
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#144
Pace70.0#168
Improvement-0.6#218

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#173
First Shot+2.7#95
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#345
Layup/Dunks+0.5#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#197
Freethrows+1.6#92
Improvement+2.7#24

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#195
First Shot-1.7#227
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#113
Layups/Dunks-0.2#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#267
Freethrows-0.9#249
Improvement-3.2#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 5.7% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 65.4% 73.5% 48.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 71.3% 45.0%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.7% 6.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.8% 5.7% 3.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 34 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 155 North Dakota St. W 80-68 56%     1 - 0 +9.4 +7.1 +2.5
  Sun, Nov 9 256 @Portland L 63-67 54%     1 - 1 -6.3 -9.6 +3.3
  Fri, Nov 14 276 Sacramento St. W 77-73 78%     2 - 1 -5.2 -2.2 -3.2
  Tue, Nov 18 89 @Nevada W 75-71 16%     3 - 1 +13.2 +1.1 +11.9
  Fri, Nov 21 73 @Colorado L 79-95 14%     3 - 2 -5.3 +9.4 -14.8
  Mon, Nov 24 314 Louisiana W 77-56 84%     4 - 2 +9.1 +7.7 +2.9
  Thu, Dec 4 109 @Hawaii L 69-75 22%     4 - 3 0 - 1 +0.8 +2.9 -2.0
  Sat, Dec 13 56 @Oregon L 62-104 11%     4 - 4 -29.8 -8.4 -20.1
  Wed, Dec 17 112 Seattle L 78-79 44%     4 - 5 -0.5 +3.9 -4.4
  Sun, Dec 21 175 @Idaho St. W 93-83 38%     5 - 5 +11.9 +25.8 -13.3
  Thu, Jan 1 212 Cal St. Northridge W 83-78 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 305 Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-70 83%    
  Thu, Jan 8 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 72-77 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 257 @Cal Poly W 83-82 55%    
  Thu, Jan 15 242 Cal St. Fullerton W 85-78 73%    
  Sat, Jan 17 131 UC Irvine W 72-71 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 83 UC San Diego L 74-79 33%    
  Sat, Jan 24 272 UC Riverside W 79-71 76%    
  Thu, Jan 29 212 @Cal St. Northridge L 80-81 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 305 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-73 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 150 UC Santa Barbara W 75-74 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 257 Cal Poly W 86-79 75%    
  Thu, Feb 12 83 @UC San Diego L 71-82 16%    
  Sat, Feb 14 275 Long Beach St. W 79-71 77%    
  Thu, Feb 19 242 @Cal St. Fullerton W 82-81 52%    
  Sat, Feb 21 272 @UC Riverside W 76-74 57%    
  Thu, Feb 26 109 Hawaii L 70-72 43%    
  Thu, Mar 5 275 @Long Beach St. W 76-74 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 131 @UC Irvine L 68-74 30%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.6 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.4 6.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 17.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 6.6 6.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 18.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.0 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.5 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.8 9.7 12.3 13.7 13.9 12.3 9.8 6.8 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 82.8% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 47.0% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 19.8% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.3% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 33.3% 33.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.8% 30.5% 30.5% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.8% 26.0% 26.0% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.3
15-5 3.8% 19.7% 19.7% 13.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0
14-6 6.8% 12.8% 12.8% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 5.9
13-7 9.8% 8.6% 8.6% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.0
12-8 12.3% 5.3% 5.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.7
11-9 13.9% 3.0% 3.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.5
10-10 13.7% 2.2% 2.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.4
9-11 12.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.2
8-12 9.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 9.6
7-13 6.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.8
6-14 4.2% 4.2
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 95.2 0.0%