UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 #167
Expected Predictive Rating +2.7 #127
Pace 70.6 #153
Improvement +0.2 #173

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #160 B+ B- C- C- C
Defense #189 D+ D C B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #232 1.33 #38 +1.8 #121
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.90 #33 +1.3 #110
Three Pointers 44% #134 1.08 #100 +2.8 #102
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #47 +5.9 #46
Freethrows 18.3 #130 76% #69 14.0 #95
Second Chance 25.3% #309 1.13 #88 0.29 #246
Turnovers 17.7% #235
Total Offense +0.1 #160

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #106 1.20 #225 -2.3 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #269 0.56 #15 +2.8 #19
Three Pointers 42% #166 1.13 #317 -2.9 #292
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #247 -2.3 #243
Freethrows 19.6 #290 73% #218 14.4 #298
Second Chance 32.0% #236 0.97 #96 0.31 #168
Turnovers 18.7% #75
Total Defense -0.7 #189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #201 1.3% #286
Shot Type Make % Effect 11.6% #35 3.4% #233
Possession Length 16.1 #73 17.9 #281
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #171 0.20 #261
Improvement +2.4 #35 -2.2 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 6.5% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.5
.500 or above 75.2% 78.9% 55.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.1% 77.0% 53.2%
Conference Champion 4.2% 4.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.8% 3.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.9% 6.5% 2.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 411 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 144 North Dakota St. W 80-68 56%     2.0   1 - 0 +9.9 +7.4 +2.7
  Sun, Nov 9 253 @Portland L 63-67 56%     0.1   1 - 1 -6.1 -9.8 +3.7
  Fri, Nov 14 286 Sacramento St. W 77-73 81%     -1.5   2 - 1 -5.9 -2.7 -3.3
  Tue, Nov 18 79 @Nevada W 75-71 15%     -0.1   3 - 1 +14.4 +1.9 +12.2
  Fri, Nov 21 87 @Colorado L 79-95 17%     -5.9   3 - 2 -6.4 +8.6 -15.1
  Mon, Nov 24 303 Louisiana W 77-56 84%     8.0   4 - 2 +9.7 +7.5 +3.7
  Thu, Dec 4 91 @Hawaii L 69-75 18%     -5.5   4 - 3 0 - 1 +3.2 +4.1 -0.7
  Sat, Dec 13 55 @Oregon L 62-104 11%     -30.4   4 - 4 -29.3 -7.8 -20.1
  Wed, Dec 17 117 Seattle L 78-79 47%     -3.9   4 - 5 -0.7 +5.0 -5.7
  Sun, Dec 21 166 @Idaho St. W 93-83 38%     8.3   5 - 5 +12.4 +25.9 -12.9
  Thu, Jan 1 212 Cal St. Northridge W 89-80 71%     5.6   6 - 5 1 - 1 +2.8 +4.2 -2.2
  Sat, Jan 3 300 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-71 84%    
  Thu, Jan 8 161 @UC Santa Barbara L 74-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 244 @Cal Poly W 83-82 54%    
  Thu, Jan 15 239 Cal St. Fullerton W 86-79 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 135 UC Irvine W 73-72 53%    
  Thu, Jan 22 92 UC San Diego L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 295 UC Riverside W 80-70 82%    
  Thu, Jan 29 212 @Cal St. Northridge L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 300 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-74 66%    
  Thu, Feb 5 161 UC Santa Barbara W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Feb 7 244 Cal Poly W 86-79 75%    
  Thu, Feb 12 92 @UC San Diego L 70-80 19%    
  Sat, Feb 14 270 Long Beach St. W 80-71 79%    
  Thu, Feb 19 239 @Cal St. Fullerton W 83-82 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 295 @UC Riverside W 77-73 64%    
  Thu, Feb 26 91 Hawaii L 69-73 37%    
  Thu, Mar 5 270 @Long Beach St. W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Mar 7 135 @UC Irvine L 70-75 32%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.2 6.6 4.4 1.0 0.1 17.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 6.1 7.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 19.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 6.3 6.3 2.4 0.3 17.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.0 4.2 1.4 0.1 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.1 0.9 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.4 7.7 10.8 13.2 14.8 14.5 12.4 8.9 5.5 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 93.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 75.5% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 50.8% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1
15-5 23.3% 1.3    0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 0.1
18-2 0.3% 43.8% 43.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.1% 27.4% 27.4% 12.4 0.2 0.1 0.8
16-4 2.5% 22.8% 22.8% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.0
15-5 5.5% 19.6% 19.6% 12.9 0.3 0.7 0.1 4.4
14-6 8.9% 14.0% 14.0% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 7.6
13-7 12.4% 8.3% 8.3% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 11.3
12-8 14.5% 4.5% 4.5% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 13.9
11-9 14.8% 3.3% 3.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 14.3
10-10 13.2% 2.2% 2.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.9
9-11 10.8% 0.6% 0.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 10.8
8-12 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-13 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 4.4
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 1.0 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 94.1 0.0%