UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#211
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#169
Pace74.1#67
Improvement-2.5#322

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#250
First Shot-2.7#255
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#160
Layup/Dunks-1.0#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#227
Freethrows+1.0#122
Improvement-0.7#245

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#152
First Shot+1.3#130
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#218
Layups/Dunks+1.4#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#124
Freethrows-1.9#291
Improvement-1.8#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 7.4% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 50.3% 69.1% 43.2%
.500 or above in Conference 52.6% 63.8% 48.3%
Conference Champion 3.9% 6.2% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.3% 7.2%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round4.9% 7.2% 4.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 27.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 75 - 10
Quad 410 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 50   @ Utah St. W 72-69 10%     1 - 0 +15.3 -1.1 +16.1
  Nov 12, 2021 222   Eastern Washington W 84-76 64%     2 - 0 +2.5 -5.5 +6.8
  Nov 17, 2021 229   @ Pepperdine L 67-72 44%     2 - 1 -5.3 -6.8 +1.6
  Nov 23, 2021 295   Sacramento St. L 63-75 71%     2 - 2 -19.6 -18.4 +0.0
  Dec 01, 2021 217   Pacific W 63-57 63%     3 - 2 +0.8 -4.0 +5.4
  Dec 14, 2021 149   @ Oregon St. L 66-72 27%    
  Dec 19, 2021 217   @ Pacific L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 22, 2021 269   Portland W 77-70 74%    
  Dec 28, 2021 136   UC Riverside L 67-68 46%    
  Dec 31, 2021 193   @ Hawaii L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 06, 2022 73   UC Irvine L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 08, 2022 198   UC San Diego W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 13, 2022 214   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 15, 2022 302   @ Cal Poly W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 20, 2022 285   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 115   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 27, 2022 205   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 286   Long Beach St. W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 01, 2022 136   @ UC Riverside L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 193   Hawaii W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 10, 2022 198   @ UC San Diego L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 12, 2022 73   @ UC Irvine L 60-72 15%    
  Feb 17, 2022 302   Cal Poly W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 19, 2022 214   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 24, 2022 115   UC Santa Barbara L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 285   Cal St. Northridge W 70-62 75%    
  Mar 03, 2022 286   @ Long Beach St. W 78-76 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 205   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 69-72 39%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.8 2.0 0.4 0.1 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.6 4.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.8 4.8 1.5 0.1 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 4.5 1.3 0.1 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.4 6.7 9.1 10.6 12.1 12.0 11.2 9.7 7.7 5.3 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 98.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 86.8% 0.8    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 52.2% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.8% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 30.2% 28.3% 1.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.6%
18-2 0.3% 25.6% 25.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.9% 28.5% 28.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 2.0% 23.4% 23.4% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.5
15-5 3.3% 18.5% 18.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.7
14-6 5.3% 13.9% 13.9% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 4.6
13-7 7.7% 9.0% 9.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 7.0
12-8 9.7% 6.9% 6.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 9.0
11-9 11.2% 4.9% 4.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.7
10-10 12.0% 3.7% 3.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.6
9-11 12.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.1 0.3 11.8
8-12 10.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.4
7-13 9.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.0
6-14 6.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-15 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.4 94.8 0.0%