California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.1 71
Expected Predictive Rating +11.3 51
Pace 68.5 183
Improvement -2.9 300

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 72 B C- B B+ D+
Defense B- 81 B+ B- C- B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 B- 62% 83 -1.5 240
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 201 C+ 39% 141 +1.0 124
Three Pointers 44% 125 A- 39% 18 +4.8 37
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 271 B+ +4.9 44
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 63
Second Chance D+ 27.4% 269 B- 1.09 87 C- 0.30 206
Turnovers B 14.7% 55
Freethrows B 0.34 68 B+ 78% 13 B+ 0.27 33
Total Offense B- +4.8 72

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 52 C 10.6% 155
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 288 C 5.3% 198
Three Pointers C- 82% 235 C- 1.1% 243
Total C+ 58% 116 C+ 5.2% 138

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 199 B- 54% 79 -1.8 114
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 218 C 38% 201 -0.5 149
Three Pointers 43% 114 A 28% 6 -2.6 74
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 205 B+ -4.9 32
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.92 42
Second Chance B- 28.3% 97 B- 0.97 87 B- 0.27 73
Turnovers C- 16.4% 203
Freethrows C+ 0.29 157 A+ 65% 1 B 0.19 58
Total Defense B- +3.3 81

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 133 C+ 12.3% 121
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 232 C- 4.4% 197
Three Pointers F+ 93% 359 C 1.0% 149
Total C- 57% 214 C 5.9% 151

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 94 18.0 293
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 157 0.14 65
Improvement -0.4 #206 -2.6 #304

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 90 72 56
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 13 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 18% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14% 18% 8%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 57% 73% 31%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four10% 12% 6%
First Round8% 11% 4%
Second Round2% 3% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stanford (Home) - 62.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 7
Quad 22 - 46 - 11
Quad 37 - 113 - 11
Quad 48 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 331 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 60 97% +14  99% 1 - 0 B+ +13 C +2 A C D A +10 B A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 149 Wright St. W 77 - 67 84% +6  88% 2 - 0 B- +7 C- -1 C F B+ A- +8 A+ C F
 Mon, Nov 10 205 Cal St. Fullerton W 93 - 65 90% +16  98% 3 - 0 A +22 B +6 D C A+ A+ +14 A A- B
 Thu, Nov 13 92 @Kansas St. L 96 - 99 46% -14  4% 3 - 1 B- +6 A+ +15 A+ B D- F+ -8 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 272 Presbyterian W 67 - 57 94% +3  77% 4 - 1 C +1 C+ +2 B C F+ C+ +0 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 271 Sacramento St. W 91 - 67 94% +18  94% 5 - 1 A- +15 C+ +3 A F+ C A +10 A+ C C-
 Tue, Nov 25 39 UCLA W 80 - 72 30% +2  52% 6 - 1 A +21 A- +9 A F A+ A+ +12 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 102 Utah W 79 - 72 72% +1  64% 7 - 1 B +9 B- +5 B B- C+ B +4 B+ B- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 127 Pacific W 67 - 61 79% +9  99% 8 - 1 B- +5 C+ +2 B C+ C B +4 A C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 280 Northwestern St. W 79 - 70 94% +1  50% 9 - 1 C -1 C+ +2 D+ A- C- C- -3 D- C A-
 Fri, Dec 19 352 Morgan St. W 97 - 50 98% +22  96% 10 - 1 A+ +30 A +13 A A B A+ +17 A- B B-
 Sun, Dec 21 197 Columbia W 74 - 56 89% +11  96% 11 - 1 B+ +13 C- -2 C D- A A+ +15 B A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 12 Louisville L 70 - 90 22% -16  0% 11 - 2 0 - 1 C- -4 C -0 D- C A+ D+ -3 C+ C D+
 Fri, Jan 2 84 Notre Dame W 72 - 71 66% -2  34% 12 - 2 1 - 1 B- +5 B +6 C+ D+ A+ C -1 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 22 @Virginia L 60 - 84 13% -12  3% 12 - 3 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 D F A- C -1 C D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 59 @Virginia Tech L 75 - 78 34% +2  61% 12 - 4 1 - 3 B +9 B+ +9 B A D+ C -0 B B- C
 Wed, Jan 14 2 Duke L 56 - 71 11% -3  37% 12 - 5 1 - 4 B- +6 D+ -4 C- F+ B+ A +9 A+ B C
 Sat, Jan 17 30 North Carolina W 84 - 78 36% +11  98% 13 - 5 2 - 4 A +18 A +12 A- A+ F+ B+ +5 B A B+
 Sat, Jan 24 75 @Stanford W 78 - 66 40% +1  57% 14 - 5 3 - 4 A +23 B +7 B- C A A+ +16 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 86 @Florida St. L 61 - 63 43% -5  14% 14 - 6 3 - 5 B- +8 F+ -8 F C- A- A+ +16 A- A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 40 @Miami (FL) W 86 - 85 22% -2  36% 15 - 6 4 - 5 A- +17 A+ +22 A- C A+ D+ -5 B- F F
 Wed, Feb 4 141 Georgia Tech W 90 - 85 83% +6  87% 16 - 6 5 - 5 C+ +3 B +7 A+ F D D+ -4 C+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 7 38 Clemson L 55 - 77 41% -13  17% 16 - 7 5 - 6 D- -11 F+ -8 C+ F D- D -5 F+ C- C+
 Wed, Feb 11 70 @Syracuse L 100 - 107 2OT 38% +0  48% 16 - 8 5 - 7 C+ +4 B +7 B- A B- C -1 D+ B- D
 Sat, Feb 14 135 @Boston College W 86 - 75 63% +11  99% 17 - 8 6 - 7 A- +16 A+ +24 A+ C B+ D- -7 B- F B+
 Sat, Feb 21 75 Stanford W 76 - 73 62%
 Wed, Feb 25 32 SMU L 78 - 82 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 101 Pittsburgh W 74 - 68 71%
 Wed, Mar 4 141 @Georgia Tech W 79 - 75 65%
 Sat, Mar 7 61 @Wake Forest L 75 - 79 35%
Totals 20 - 10 9 - 9 +8 B- +5 C B+ D+ B- +3 A- B+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- C+ A- B+ 33% 36% 44% D+ B D+ B- C- B B B+ B+ B- B- C A B+ 38% 19% 43% C- B+ B- B- B- C- C+ A+ B
1.15 62% 39% 39% +5 -1 1.11 27% 1.1 .30 15% .34 78% .27 1.04 54% 38% 28% -5 0 0.92 28% 1.0 .27 16% .29 65% .22
Nov
3		 Cal St. Bakersfield C A+ A+ F A- 47% 14% 39% B A B- C- C D B+ C- B A A B- B+ B+ 51% 33% 16% D- B C+ A+ A+ A- F A+ F
1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30 0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34
Nov
6		 Wright St. C- A- A+ F C 36% 23% 41% C- C C- F F B+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 31% 17% 52% C A+ A- F C F B- A+ A
1.11 69% 60% 22% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.5 .15 14% .52 84% .44 0.96 35% 67% 21% -12 0 0.78 25% 1.4 .34 11% .29 56% .16
Nov
10		 Cal St. Fullerton B D- F B+ D- 36% 15% 49% C D C- C+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- C+ A+ A 38% 23% 39% C+ A C- A+ A- B A+ A+ A+
1.20 52% 22% 38% -2 0 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 10% .43 87% .38 0.84 61% 36% 21% -7 0 0.87 27% 0.6 .16 18% .17 45% .08
Nov
13		 Kansas St. A+ B B- A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% C A+ C- A+ B D- F+ A D+ F+ F+ B- F F 62% 5% 33% F F A F F A F A- D
1.23 61% 40% 54% +16 0 1.33 32% 1.4 .46 22% .23 79% .18 1.26 71% 33% 50% +15 +4 1.40 26% 2.0 .52 22% .34 67% .23
Nov
18		 Presbyterian C+ B A+ C+ B+ 43% 25% 32% D B B+ F C F+ B+ F C- C+ A+ C B A+ 32% 30% 39% B+ A+ F D+ F C- A C+ A-
1.16 63% 55% 36% +7 0 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 19% .34 56% .19 0.99 29% 38% 29% -12 -2 0.75 46% 1.1 .49 19% .26 67% .17
Nov
21		 Sacramento St. C+ B+ A+ A- A+ 32% 11% 58% C- A D F F+ C C- F F A A+ A+ A A+ 35% 24% 41% D+ A+ F A+ C C- F D+ F
1.21 67% 83% 39% +12 +1 1.28 29% 0.9 .26 16% .30 53% .16 0.89 26% 23% 27% -19 -1 0.63 36% 0.9 .32 15% .47 80% .37
Nov
25		 UCLA A- F D A+ A 38% 23% 38% C+ A F+ F F A+ A- B+ A- A+ B A- A A+ 33% 29% 38% C+ A+ C B B- B- D- A+ B
1.13 45% 33% 55% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 11% .35 77% .27 1.02 56% 31% 29% -6 -1 0.87 33% 1.1 .36 16% .39 57% .22
Dec
2		 Utah B- C A B- B+ 38% 28% 34% D- B C- A B- C+ A+ A+ A+ B C B A- A- 41% 11% 48% D B+ B+ C- B- C- C- C C-
1.16 58% 50% 35% +4 -1 1.08 27% 1.3 .33 15% .41 92% .38 1.06 59% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 15% .33 74% .24
Dec
6		 Pacific C+ B C A+ A- 25% 36% 39% F+ B B- C C+ C A+ F B- B A+ A+ D- A+ 45% 23% 32% C A F A+ C+ C A- D B+
1.10 64% 38% 41% +5 -3 1.07 27% 1.0 .27 15% .44 57% .25 1.00 43% 27% 40% -6 0 0.89 45% 0.7 .33 20% .20 80% .16
Dec
13		 Northwestern St. C+ D+ F A+ D 38% 15% 48% C+ D+ D+ A+ A- C- B A A C- D+ A- F F 26% 28% 46% B D- A F C A- B- F C-
1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31 1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25
Dec
19		 Morgan St. A B+ F A+ A 50% 14% 36% C+ A F A+ A B F+ A+ B+ A+ D+ D- A+ A 35% 29% 35% C- A- A+ F B B- C A+ A-
1.40 68% 29% 50% +12 +2 1.30 22% 2.6 .57 13% .38 96% .36 0.72 59% 43% 6% -13 -1 0.73 16% 1.2 .19 20% .34 58% .20
Dec
21		 Columbia C- A+ F C+ C+ 33% 29% 38% F+ C D- D D- A A A- A+ A+ B- F A+ A 64% 6% 30% F B A+ A+ A+ C+ B+ A+ A+
1.10 71% 27% 35% +1 -1 1.02 24% 0.9 .21 9% .39 79% .31 0.84 53% 67% 27% -5 +4 1.00 24% 0.1 .03 22% .23 50% .12
Dec
30		 Louisville C F D- C- F+ 31% 21% 48% B- D- D- A C A+ A+ A- A+ D+ B+ F+ F B- 43% 3% 53% D C+ D- B C D+ A F A-
0.98 31% 27% 32% -12 -1 0.77 19% 1.1 .21 11% .43 78% .33 1.26 56% 50% 42% +6 +3 1.19 39% 0.9 .37 14% .23 86% .20
Jan
2		 Notre Dame B A+ A+ F B- 20% 18% 62% C- C+ C- D- D+ A+ F C F+ C A+ F C- A- 25% 17% 58% C B+ C+ A+ A+ F F A F
1.14 73% 60% 26% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.9 .20 5% .20 75% .15 1.13 42% 50% 36% -1 0 1.00 32% 0.6 .19 11% .46 62% .29
Jan
7		 Virginia D+ A- D+ F D 27% 37% 37% D- D F F F A- A A+ A+ C D F A C 39% 12% 49% C- C C+ D- D+ C+ F A- D-
0.88 62% 33% 17% -10 -3 0.76 16% 0.7 .11 13% .37 86% .32 1.23 65% 83% 28% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.2 .48 16% .40 65% .26
Jan
10		 Virginia Tech B+ B C+ C- B 40% 21% 40% B- B A+ B- A D+ A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ A+ A- 44% 11% 44% F B D A B- C F F F
1.12 63% 40% 32% +1 0 1.04 41% 1.1 .45 19% .39 90% .35 1.17 70% 20% 25% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.9 .33 15% .55 87% .47
Jan
14		 Duke D+ F A+ F C 24% 33% 43% D- C- D F F+ B+ A+ A A+ A C F A+ A+ 39% 4% 57% C A+ C A- B C B- A+ A+
0.87 33% 56% 24% -7 -3 0.84 18% 0.3 .06 17% .32 76% .24 1.10 63% 100% 21% -6 +2 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 15% .31 47% .15
Jan
17		 North Carolina A D- C+ A+ A 25% 31% 43% D A- C A+ A+ F+ A- B+ A B+ F A C+ B- 31% 20% 49% B+ B A- B A B+ F A+ D-
1.19 46% 38% 45% +4 -2 1.06 25% 2.3 .56 18% .28 75% .21 1.11 73% 30% 33% +3 -1 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .47 61% .29
Jan
24		 Stanford B C+ F A+ B+ 24% 29% 47% D- B- C- C C A A- B A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 6% 50% D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F F D- F
1.09 58% 21% 43% +2 -2 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 14% .41 80% .33 0.93 39% 0% 23% -19 +2 0.69 33% 0.5 .17 10% .48 77% .37
Jan
28		 Florida St. F+ D- F D F 19% 31% 50% F F F+ A+ C- A- C- B- C A+ D- C A+ B 27% 29% 44% A+ A- A- A+ A+ D- D A+ B+
0.90 50% 25% 31% -8 -3 0.81 21% 1.3 .26 16% .26 73% .19 0.93 67% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.91 27% 0.3 .07 10% .34 52% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Miami (FL) A+ A+ F A A 26% 30% 44% D- A- C- B- C A+ A+ A A+ D+ F B- A C 44% 31% 24% A+ B- A+ F F F F C- F
1.28 77% 27% 41% +6 -2 1.10 22% 1.1 .25 10% .53 75% .40 1.26 75% 36% 27% +4 -1 1.09 25% 2.1 .54 10% .55 70% .38
Feb
4		 Georgia Tech B C B- A+ A+ 23% 32% 45% F+ A+ D- F F D A+ C A+ D+ C+ F A- B 48% 10% 43% F C+ A F C- F A A+ A+
1.17 55% 40% 57% +15 -3 1.28 22% 0.5 .11 18% .62 72% .44 1.10 57% 50% 30% -2 +2 1.02 24% 1.6 .38 10% .20 50% .10
Feb
7		 Clemson F+ C- C C+ B- 37% 37% 26% D- C+ F+ F F D- C+ A+ B+ D D F F F 33% 15% 52% B F+ A+ F C- C+ C A+ A-
0.85 53% 35% 33% -3 -2 0.91 14% 0.0 .00 22% .30 87% .26 1.19 67% 57% 42% +12 0 1.26 15% 2.3 .33 15% .35 58% .20
Feb
11		 Syracuse B C C- B- B 36% 24% 39% D+ B- C+ A+ A B- B B- B+ C F D A C- 51% 15% 34% D- D+ C B B- D F A- F
1.11 54% 31% 35% -3 -1 0.95 32% 1.6 .50 18% .34 76% .26 1.18 74% 44% 29% +6 +2 1.18 33% 0.9 .30 13% .54 60% .32
Feb
14		 Boston College A+ A+ C A+ A+ 29% 16% 55% C+ A+ D- A+ C B+ C- A+ B- D- B- D+ B C+ 34% 32% 34% B+ B- F F F B+ C- A C+
1.33 73% 38% 50% +18 0 1.37 20% 1.2 .24 12% .28 75% .21 1.16 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 43% 1.5 .63 19% .30 56% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.5 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.5 5.8 2.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 7.2 9.4 0.1 16.9 8th
9th 0.0 9.7 22.9 3.7 36.3 9th
10th 0.8 12.9 2.5 16.2 10th
11th 0.0 3.2 5.1 0.1 8.4 11th
12th 0.1 4.8 0.9 5.7 12th
13th 0.6 2.7 0.1 3.3 13th
14th 1.3 0.5 1.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 2.0 12.0 28.8 33.2 19.3 4.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 4.8% 49.6% 0.8% 48.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 2.4 49.2%
10-8 19.3% 30.0% 0.2% 29.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.9 0.1 13.5 29.9%
9-9 33.2% 14.3% 0.1% 14.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.8 0.2 28.5 14.2%
8-10 28.8% 4.2% 0.1% 4.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 27.6 4.1%
7-11 12.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.8 0.9%
6-12 2.0% 2.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.2% 0.2% 14.1% 10.6 85.8 14.1%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 76.9% 9.0 25.6 30.8 15.4 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 73.0% 9.5 1.6 10.7 23.0 27.9 9.8
Lose Out 1.3%