Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#265
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#268
Pace63.3#320
Improvement+1.3#96

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#172
First Shot-1.8#229
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#76
Layup/Dunks+0.9#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#113
Freethrows-2.7#315
Improvement+1.9#46

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#347
First Shot-7.4#358
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#84
Layups/Dunks-0.3#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#282
Freethrows-1.0#255
Improvement-0.6#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 6.6% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 13.3% 33.4% 12.0%
.500 or above in Conference 37.8% 52.4% 36.9%
Conference Champion 3.2% 6.9% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.4% 9.1% 16.9%
First Four1.9% 1.8% 1.9%
First Round3.1% 5.8% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 6.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 204   UC Davis L 75-79 46%     0 - 1 -8.9 +0.8 -9.6
  Nov 11, 2024 74   @ Washington St. L 67-90 7%     0 - 2 -12.5 -2.8 -8.6
  Nov 16, 2024 49   @ BYU L 71-95 5%     0 - 3 -10.7 +0.8 -10.9
  Nov 23, 2024 199   Southern Utah L 67-82 34%     0 - 4 -16.8 +6.6 -26.5
  Nov 24, 2024 312   @ San Diego L 61-68 47%     0 - 5 -12.1 -10.4 -1.7
  Nov 30, 2024 175   UC Riverside W 80-68 42%     1 - 5 +8.2 +14.2 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 292   @ UMKC W 82-77 42%     2 - 5 +1.2 +11.6 -10.2
  Dec 07, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 61-77 6%    
  Dec 15, 2024 102   UC San Diego L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 18, 2024 204   @ UC Davis L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 21, 2024 277   @ Pacific L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 02, 2025 122   Montana St. L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 04, 2025 190   Montana L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 09, 2025 320   @ Sacramento St. W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 256   @ Portland St. L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 239   Eastern Washington W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 20, 2025 190   @ Montana L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 23, 2025 180   Northern Colorado L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 25, 2025 301   Northern Arizona W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 30, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 252   @ Idaho St. L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 06, 2025 256   Portland St. W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 320   Sacramento St. W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 301   @ Northern Arizona L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 27, 2025 252   Idaho St. W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 210   Weber St. L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 03, 2025 122   @ Montana St. L 66-77 16%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.5 1.8 0.3 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.1 3.1 0.3 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.0 3.4 0.3 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 13.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 1.7 4.2 6.9 9.8 12.2 13.4 13.1 12.1 9.7 6.9 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 85.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 68.8% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 39.6% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 12.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 42.2% 42.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 20.4% 20.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.3% 21.6% 21.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.6% 16.8% 16.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.1
12-6 4.5% 10.6% 10.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.0
11-7 6.9% 8.2% 8.2% 15.7 0.2 0.4 6.4
10-8 9.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.1
9-9 12.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 11.6
8-10 13.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 12.7
7-11 13.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.2
6-12 12.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.0
5-13 9.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.7
4-14 6.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-16 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%