Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#169
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#142
Pace66.0#278
Improvement+0.3#163

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#119
First Shot+2.8#97
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#232
Layup/Dunks-3.7#308
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#11
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement+1.1#100

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#268
First Shot-4.7#329
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#46
Layups/Dunks-0.5#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#205
Freethrows-1.2#271
Improvement-0.8#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 17.5% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 70.9% 81.0% 58.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.1% 78.9% 68.0%
Conference Champion 20.1% 23.5% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 3.1% 5.9%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round15.1% 17.3% 12.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 55.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 411 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 149 @Washington St. W 83-81 33%     1 - 0 +5.9 +10.0 -4.1
  Wed, Nov 12 245 @San Diego L 74-78 54%     1 - 1 -5.8 +2.5 -8.5
  Sat, Nov 15 84 @UC San Diego L 67-75 16%     1 - 2 +1.8 -1.2 +3.0
  Wed, Nov 26 219 Cal St. Northridge W 78-64 61%     2 - 2 +10.4 -0.9 +10.7
  Fri, Nov 28 119 Sam Houston St. L 68-94 35%     2 - 3 -22.8 +2.5 -27.8
  Wed, Dec 3 333 North Dakota W 90-58 88%     3 - 3 +18.4 +12.2 +6.5
  Sat, Dec 6 171 @South Dakota St. W 84-81 39%     4 - 3 +5.2 +13.4 -8.2
  Wed, Dec 10 57 @Notre Dame L 65-80 11%     4 - 4 -2.3 +5.9 -9.9
  Sun, Dec 21 255 @Cal Poly W 84-83 56%    
  Tue, Dec 23 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-73 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 260 Eastern Washington W 82-74 76%    
  Thu, Jan 8 208 Montana W 80-75 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 168 Montana St. W 73-70 61%    
  Thu, Jan 15 158 @Idaho St. L 68-72 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 225 @Weber St. W 77-76 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 273 Sacramento St. W 80-72 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 175 Portland St. W 73-70 61%    
  Thu, Jan 29 170 @Northern Colorado L 75-78 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 270 @Northern Arizona W 72-70 57%    
  Thu, Feb 5 168 @Montana St. L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 208 @Montana L 77-78 48%    
  Thu, Feb 12 225 Weber St. W 79-73 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 158 Idaho St. W 71-69 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 175 @Portland St. L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 273 @Sacramento St. W 77-75 57%    
  Thu, Feb 26 270 Northern Arizona W 75-67 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 170 Northern Colorado W 78-75 61%    
  Mon, Mar 2 260 @Eastern Washington W 79-77 56%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.4 5.4 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 20.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.4 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 6.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.4 2.5 0.3 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.3 2.8 0.2 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.9 0.3 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.8 7.0 9.5 12.0 13.0 13.3 12.3 10.1 6.9 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 99.1% 1.9    1.8 0.1
15-3 94.7% 3.6    3.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 78.5% 5.4    4.0 1.4 0.1
13-5 53.0% 5.4    2.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 20.6% 2.5    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 12.9 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 57.6% 54.5% 3.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7%
17-1 0.7% 47.8% 47.8% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 1.9% 42.9% 42.9% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.1
15-3 3.8% 36.2% 36.2% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 2.4
14-4 6.9% 31.0% 31.0% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 4.7
13-5 10.1% 24.6% 24.6% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 7.6
12-6 12.3% 19.0% 19.0% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.0 10.0
11-7 13.3% 15.3% 15.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 11.3
10-8 13.0% 12.6% 12.6% 14.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 11.3
9-9 12.0% 9.4% 9.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 10.9
8-10 9.5% 5.1% 5.1% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.1
7-11 7.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 6.7
6-12 4.8% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.2 4.6
5-13 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.5
4-14 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.7 4.2 1.4 84.6 0.0%