Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +0.5 149
Results Rating +0.3 153
Consistency 0.13 93
Pace 70.8 113
Improvement +1.9 116

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 142 B- C- C D- C+
Defense C 188 B- C+ F D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 172 B- 62% 84 +1.7 110
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 258 C+ 40% 111 -0.8 224
Three Pointers 44% 126 B- 36% 107 +2.6 94
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 126 B- +3.0 86
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 79
Second Chance D+ 26.8% 280 C 1.05 146 C- 0.28 250
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 210
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 190
Turnovers C 17.0% 201
Freethrows F+ 0.23 352 B- 75% 115 D- 0.17 342
Total Offense C +0.9 142

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 196 B 8.8% 60
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 287 C 5.4% 210
Three Pointers B+ 93% 14 D- 1.7% 337
Total C+ 58% 125 C+ 5.1% 125


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 15 C+ 57% 145 +3.8 305
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 224 D+ 41% 296 +0.0 192
Three Pointers 35% 336 A 28% 5 -6.2 2
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 305 B -2.9 62
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 107
Second Chance B 26.4% 49 D+ 1.11 288 C+ 0.29 125
Turnovers from Steals F 5.0% 365
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 197
Turnovers F 12.2% 362
Freethrows D+ 0.33 266 D- 76% 349 D 0.25 299
Total Defense C -0.4 188

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 10 D+ 7.9% 302
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 150 D- 1.5% 343
Three Pointers A+ 68% 3 C 0.9% 151
Total A 42% 4 D+ 4.3% 288

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 151 17.2 173
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 352 0.14 80
Consistency 0.10 33 0.11 77
Improvement +0.0 186 +1.9 89

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 165 153 134
Results Rating Rank 168 157 122
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 31% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round17% 31% 0%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 67 - 8
Quad 411 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 271 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 64% +5  93% 1 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 C+ C- F B+ +5 B A- F
 Fri, Nov 21 112 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 39% +5  92% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D -6 C- A- F A- +8 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 216 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 52% +2  64% 2 - 1 B- +6 C +0 C- C A- B +5 A F D
 Sun, Nov 23 205 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 61% +4  85% 3 - 1 C +2 B +7 C- B A+ D -6 B- B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 344 @Air Force W 71 - 53 83% +5  73% 4 - 1 B +8 C+ +3 A F C A- +8 A C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 255 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 60% +1  56% 5 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 B- F C+ C+ +2 B F D-
 Sat, Dec 6 284 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 83% +2  67% 6 - 1 D+ -8 C +1 A D+ D F+ -9 D D+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 11 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  0% 6 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +26 A+ A+ B F -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 245 Denver L 79 - 86 78% +2  58% 6 - 3 F+ -15 F+ -8 D D C+ D -6 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 69 @Colorado W 86 - 81 16% +2  57% 7 - 3 A- +16 A +11 A+ B- C- B +5 A+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 147 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 37% -6  8% 7 - 4 0 - 1 D -10 C -0 D+ A D F+ -9 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 207 @Montana L 79 - 88 50% -9  0% 7 - 5 0 - 2 D -9 C- -1 F B- B D -6 B- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 267 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 81% +11  98% 8 - 5 1 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +9 A D- B D+ -4 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 209 Weber St. L 71 - 76 73% -1  37% 8 - 6 1 - 3 D -11 D -6 F B C- D -5 C- B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 152 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 39% +1  58% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C +0 C +1 A+ F C- C -1 C- F A
 Sat, Jan 17 274 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 64% +7  86% 8 - 8 1 - 5 D+ -7 C- -1 B- F C- D -6 D+ D F
 Mon, Jan 19 147 Montana St. L 68 - 73 60% -4  25% 8 - 9 1 - 6 D+ -7 D+ -4 D A- D- D+ -3 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 316 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 75% -2  18% 8 - 10 1 - 7 D -11 B- +5 A- B F F -16 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 181 Idaho W 91 - 83 68% +2  54% 9 - 10 2 - 7 C+ +4 B +6 A- D C C- -3 B A F
 Sat, Jan 31 173 Eastern Washington W 74 - 71 67% -1  34% 10 - 10 3 - 7 C -1 D+ -3 D+ F A+ B- +2 B- C C-
 Thu, Feb 5 209 @Weber St. W 88 - 74 51% +10  95% 11 - 10 4 - 7 B+ +14 A +13 A A+ B C+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 267 @Idaho St. W 69 - 61 63% +3  68% 12 - 10 5 - 7 B- +5 D -5 C B F A +10 A+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 274 Sacramento St. W 95 - 79 82% +10  98% 13 - 10 6 - 7 B- +7 C+ +2 A+ F C- B- +3 B+ A- F
 Sat, Feb 14 152 Portland St. W 77 - 65 62% 14 - 10 7 - 7 B +9
 Sat, Feb 21 316 Northern Arizona W 78 - 77 89% +3  83% 15 - 10 8 - 7 D- -12 D+ -3 D+ B- C+ F+ -9 C- D+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 173 @Eastern Washington L 72 - 82 44% -0  49% 15 - 11 8 - 8 D+ -8 C- -2 C+ F D+ D- -7 D B F
 Sat, Feb 28 181 @Idaho W 76 - 67 46% -1  36% 16 - 11 9 - 8 B +11 B- +4 A F C B+ +6 A+ C F
 Mon, Mar 2 207 Montana W 85 - 57 72% +10  89% 17 - 11 10 - 8 A +22 B- +5 A F A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ D
Totals 17 - 11 10 - 8 +0 C +1 A- B- C+ C +0 B- B- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- C+ B- B- 39% 31% 44% C+ B- D+ C C- C F+ B- D- C C+ D+ A B 46% 19% 35% D B- B D+ C+ F D+ D- D
1.10 62% 40% 36% +3 0 1.09 27% 1.0 .28 17% .23 75% .17 1.09 57% 41% 28% -3 +1 0.98 26% 1.1 .29 12% .33 76% .18
Nov
15		 Pepperdine D+ C- A+ C- C+ 43% 13% 44% C+ C+ C+ D+ C- F A+ B+ A+ B+ A- F A+ B+ 46% 22% 32% D+ B C- A+ A- F F A+ F+
1.07 57% 57% 33% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 24% .40 76% .30 0.98 48% 50% 25% -6 0 0.90 30% 0.6 .18 13% .42 67% .28
Nov
21		 St. Thomas D C+ A+ F D+ 47% 9% 44% B+ C- D+ A+ A- F A+ A- A+ A- A- A+ B+ A+ 48% 9% 43% D+ A+ F D- F C B- A- B
0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31 1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16
Nov
22		 Portland C C A+ F C- 43% 15% 43% B C- F A+ C A- D A+ C+ B C+ D A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% F A C- F F D B+ C- B+
1.07 58% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 17% 2.0 .34 14% .26 89% .23 0.99 59% 43% 17% -10 +2 0.87 30% 1.6 .48 17% .24 75% .18
Nov
23		 Cal St. Fullerton B B+ D+ D+ C- 35% 15% 51% C+ C- D A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D C+ A- B B+ 55% 16% 30% F B- B C B- F F C+ F
1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 +1 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47 1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
26		 Air Force C+ A- A A A 35% 16% 49% B- A F D+ F C F F F A- F A A+ B 31% 38% 31% A+ A B+ F C- F B- A- B
1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10 0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16
Dec
3		 Nebraska Omaha C F A+ A C+ 43% 8% 49% A- B- C F F C+ D+ A+ C+ C+ A- A C+ A- 48% 15% 38% F B B- F F D- F B F+
1.13 50% 75% 40% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 14% .26 87% .23 1.06 48% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.92 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 68% .26
Dec
6		 South Dakota C A B- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% C- A F A+ D+ D A+ F C+ F+ C- F A+ D 58% 23% 19% D D C F+ D+ C D- F F
1.17 72% 44% 42% +12 +1 1.28 21% 1.7 .34 18% .40 56% .22 1.14 58% 58% 20% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 17% .43 93% .39
Dec
16		 Texas Tech A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 34% 23% 43% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B F F F F F F F F 28% 22% 50% B- F A+ F A+ F F F+ F
1.31 74% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.25 38% 1.4 .53 15% .14 50% .07 1.47 80% 75% 44% +22 -1 1.44 15% 1.5 .23 4% .37 79% .29
Dec
20		 Denver F+ A+ F F D 44% 15% 41% C+ D C+ F D C+ F F F D D A+ F D- 54% 20% 26% F F+ A+ F A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.10 81% 22% 21% 0 +1 1.03 36% 0.9 .33 13% .16 40% .06 1.20 62% 27% 50% +6 +1 1.17 11% 1.7 .19 13% .32 90% .29
Dec
28		 Colorado A D A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B- A+ C- A+ B- C- C- B+ C B A- A- C+ A+ 38% 29% 32% A- A+ C B C+ F A+ F B+
1.18 50% 55% 50% +9 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .31 18% .28 76% .22 1.11 52% 32% 33% -5 -1 0.91 32% 0.9 .28 7% .22 93% .21
Jan
1		 Montana St. C C+ F C D+ 40% 19% 40% C- D+ C+ A+ A D D A+ C+ F+ C- F A- C 39% 18% 43% F C- A- F F F D+ C+ C-
1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20 1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20
Jan
3		 Montana C- C- F F+ F 23% 30% 48% F F C+ B+ B- B B- B+ B D F A- B+ B- 35% 20% 45% C+ B- A- B- B+ F F F F
1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24 1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53
Jan
8		 Idaho St. B+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 10% 63% C+ A D- D D- B F+ D F+ D+ D- C+ A+ A- 53% 17% 30% D B+ C- B- C+ D F C F
1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19 1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31
Jan
10		 Weber St. D B- F+ F F 55% 21% 23% C+ F A+ D- B C- B A- A- D C+ F B+ B- 73% 4% 22% F C- C A- B D- F B- F
1.07 65% 30% 9% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 17% .36 80% .29 1.14 55% 50% 30% -3 +5 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .57 70% .40
Jan
15		 Portland St. C A+ F A+ A+ 26% 16% 58% C- A+ F F F C- D+ F+ D- C D+ F A D+ 43% 26% 32% B C- F+ F F A F D+ F
1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22 1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36
Jan
17		 Sacramento St. C- A+ C- D- B 41% 16% 43% C- B- F D- F C- F A+ F D F C B- D 26% 27% 47% B D+ D C- D F F B F
1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17 1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35
Jan
19		 Montana St. D+ F+ D- C D- 51% 16% 33% B D A+ D A- D- F F F D+ A- C F C 40% 10% 50% F D+ A+ A+ A+ F F D F
1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02 1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27
Jan
24		 Northern Arizona B- B+ B- A+ A+ 26% 26% 48% F A- A+ F B F F A+ F F F D+ F F 33% 33% 33% A F A- F F F+ F F F
1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13 1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26
Jan
29		 Idaho B B+ F A+ B+ 50% 19% 31% A- A- F+ B D C A+ D- A+ C- A+ F+ C- B+ 38% 13% 50% D+ B A A+ A F F F F
1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35 1.09 38% 43% 36% -6 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34
Jan
31		 Eastern Washington D+ B- A+ F D 38% 9% 54% B- D+ C- F F A+ F A- F B- B B+ D B+ 52% 17% 31% F+ B- A+ F C C- A+ F A
1.10 62% 60% 27% -3 +1 1.00 31% 0.8 .24 6% .17 82% .14 1.05 52% 33% 38% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.7 .36 18% .18 90% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Weber St. A A- A+ A+ A 44% 15% 41% B- A D A+ A+ B F D F C+ B- F A+ A- 54% 15% 31% D B+ C+ A+ A+ F D- F F
1.30 71% 50% 41% +12 +1 1.28 24% 2.0 .48 13% .17 70% .12 1.10 54% 75% 13% -7 +2 0.92 30% 0.5 .15 9% .39 83% .32
Feb
7		 Idaho St. D B C- C+ C 41% 24% 35% D+ C D- A+ B F F A+ F A A+ A+ B A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ A+ F C- F B- B+ B
1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14 0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19
Feb
12		 Sacramento St. C+ A+ A- B A+ 45% 6% 48% B A+ F F F C- F B+ F B- A D A A 39% 17% 44% F+ B+ A+ C- A- F F F+ F
1.20 79% 50% 37% +12 +2 1.31 24% 0.9 .21 18% .20 77% .15 0.99 43% 40% 27% -10 +1 0.83 17% 1.1 .20 10% .43 84% .36
Feb
14		 Portland St.
Feb
21		 Northern Arizona D+ B F F D- 55% 15% 30% B D+ F+ A+ B- C+ A C A F+ C A+ D- C+ 49% 16% 35% F C- D+ D+ D+ F F F F
1.17 65% 29% 29% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.7 .43 15% .39 73% .28 1.16 56% 25% 39% 0 +1 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 11% .45 74% .34
Feb
26		 Eastern Washington C- B- A+ F B- 45% 19% 36% C C+ D- F F D+ F F+ F D- D- F A+ D+ 60% 19% 21% F D A- C- B F F F F
1.08 63% 70% 26% +4 +1 1.11 27% 0.9 .23 18% .24 69% .16 1.23 66% 78% 10% +4 +2 1.15 25% 1.2 .29 12% .41 83% .34
Feb
28		 Idaho B- F A+ A+ A 41% 22% 37% B- A D- F F C C- A+ B B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 52% 5% 43% F A+ F A C F D+ B- C-
1.13 45% 64% 50% +9 0 1.20 19% 0.0 .00 15% .33 89% .30 1.00 48% 0% 21% -16 +3 0.77 36% 0.8 .30 9% .31 68% .21
Mar
2		 Montana B- B A+ B+ A- 41% 13% 47% B+ A F C F A+ F A+ F A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.16 65% 50% 37% +6 +1 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 10% .15 80% .12 0.78 52% 36% 24% -9 +1 0.86 10% 0.5 .05 18% .17 60% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 17.0% 17.0% 13.6 0.3 7.0 8.9 0.8 83.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 13.6 83.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.0% 100.0% 13.6 1.8 41.0 52.4 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 26.0%
Lose Out 44.4%