Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#179
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#203
Pace68.5#208
Improvement-0.7#238

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#116
First Shot+4.0#67
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#292
Layup/Dunks-3.1#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.4#6
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement+1.4#46

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#262
First Shot-4.2#302
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#84
Layups/Dunks-5.9#338
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#50
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement-2.1#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 11.9% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 61.8% 71.2% 46.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.6% 89.3% 71.4%
Conference Champion 11.1% 14.8% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.4%
First Round9.9% 11.6% 6.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 34 - 54 - 10
Quad 412 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 189   Pacific W 67-65 52%     1 - 0 +0.8 -4.7 +5.5
  Nov 11, 2021 186   @ Hawaii W 81-78 40%     2 - 0 +4.8 +3.5 +1.2
  Nov 17, 2021 11   @ Texas L 49-62 5%     2 - 1 +5.7 -8.6 +12.7
  Nov 21, 2021 218   @ California Baptist L 70-74 45%     2 - 2 -3.4 -3.6 +0.1
  Nov 23, 2021 294   @ San Jose St. L 74-75 63%     2 - 3 -5.2 +3.0 -8.3
  Nov 27, 2021 42   @ Colorado St. L 79-88 10%     2 - 4 +4.3 +14.8 -11.2
  Dec 02, 2021 184   Montana St. W 76-73 63%    
  Dec 04, 2021 205   Montana W 72-68 66%    
  Dec 07, 2021 233   South Dakota W 77-71 71%    
  Dec 15, 2021 5   @ Arizona L 66-88 2%    
  Dec 18, 2021 60   @ Washington St. L 68-79 15%    
  Jan 01, 2022 139   @ Southern Utah L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 08, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 10, 2022 272   @ Portland St. W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 15, 2022 317   Northern Arizona W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 20, 2022 349   @ Idaho W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 22, 2022 203   @ Eastern Washington L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 27, 2022 98   Weber St. L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 29, 2022 309   Idaho St. W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 03, 2022 272   Portland St. W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 10, 2022 295   @ Sacramento St. W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 14, 2022 139   Southern Utah W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 17, 2022 309   @ Idaho St. W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 19, 2022 98   @ Weber St. L 70-79 22%    
  Feb 24, 2022 203   Eastern Washington W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 349   Idaho W 84-67 93%    
  Mar 03, 2022 205   @ Montana L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 05, 2022 184   @ Montana St. L 73-76 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.2 2.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.7 5.5 3.0 1.2 0.1 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.4 5.5 1.8 0.2 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.5 4.4 1.0 0.1 16.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.3 3.3 0.6 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.8 1.4 0.2 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.8 6.9 10.1 11.5 13.6 13.5 11.8 9.4 6.3 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 93.1% 1.8    1.5 0.3
17-3 71.1% 2.9    2.0 0.8 0.0
16-4 49.7% 3.2    1.7 1.2 0.2
15-5 21.1% 2.0    0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1
14-6 5.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.5 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.4% 54.5% 54.5% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
18-2 1.9% 32.4% 32.4% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3
17-3 4.0% 28.9% 28.9% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 2.9
16-4 6.3% 21.5% 21.5% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 5.0
15-5 9.4% 18.5% 18.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 7.7
14-6 11.8% 13.6% 13.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 10.2
13-7 13.5% 10.3% 10.3% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.4 12.1
12-8 13.6% 6.5% 6.5% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 12.7
11-9 11.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.7 0.2 0.4 10.9
10-10 10.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.4 9.7
9-11 6.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.8
8-12 4.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.7
7-13 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
6-14 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-15 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 4.2 2.3 89.7 0.0%