Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#268
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#256
Pace72.9#65
Improvement-0.7#269

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#172
First Shot+1.4#123
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#285
Layup/Dunks+0.5#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#38
Freethrows-1.3#277
Improvement-1.6#345

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#325
First Shot-6.1#348
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#120
Layups/Dunks-5.5#352
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#58
Freethrows-0.5#230
Improvement+0.9#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 2.7% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 4.3% 11.8% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.0% 11.5% 29.3%
First Four1.7% 2.0% 1.6%
First Round1.0% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 31 - 72 - 13
Quad 49 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 1   @ Houston L 36-83 1%     0 - 1 -24.8 -21.6 -7.9
  Nov 11, 2022 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 80-77 72%     1 - 1 -8.6 +1.5 -10.2
  Nov 14, 2022 14   @ Baylor L 62-95 3%     1 - 2 -15.5 -12.8 +1.3
  Nov 19, 2022 119   San Jose St. L 69-80 30%     1 - 3 -11.0 +2.8 -15.1
  Nov 25, 2022 241   North Dakota St. W 80-70 45%     2 - 3 +5.8 +3.0 +2.7
  Nov 26, 2022 257   Jacksonville St. W 86-82 OT 48%     3 - 3 -1.1 +5.6 -6.9
  Nov 27, 2022 54   @ New Mexico L 74-98 6%     3 - 4 -11.7 +2.0 -12.4
  Dec 03, 2022 113   @ Colorado St. W 88-83 14%     4 - 4 +11.1 +16.5 -5.3
  Dec 10, 2022 328   @ Cal St. Northridge W 70-63 55%     5 - 4 +0.2 +0.1 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2022 61   @ Colorado L 77-88 7%     5 - 5 +0.3 +10.9 -10.3
  Dec 20, 2022 168   Air Force L 65-67 39%     5 - 6 -4.7 -7.5 +2.8
  Dec 29, 2022 213   @ Weber St. L 72-81 28%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -8.4 +1.1 -9.5
  Dec 31, 2022 283   @ Idaho St. L 83-90 OT 43%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -10.8 -3.7 -6.1
  Jan 05, 2023 120   Montana St. L 56-77 30%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -21.0 -16.1 -4.7
  Jan 07, 2023 189   Montana L 74-79 43%     5 - 10 0 - 4 -8.9 -5.3 -3.4
  Jan 12, 2023 219   @ Sacramento St. L 64-72 29%     5 - 11 0 - 5 -7.8 -4.1 -4.3
  Jan 14, 2023 247   @ Portland St. W 69-67 35%     6 - 11 1 - 5 +0.3 -3.3 +3.6
  Jan 19, 2023 161   Eastern Washington L 75-83 38%     6 - 12 1 - 6 -10.4 -2.3 -7.9
  Jan 21, 2023 309   Idaho W 73-67 69%     7 - 12 2 - 6 -4.8 -5.2 +0.7
  Jan 28, 2023 293   @ Northern Arizona L 73-83 45%     7 - 13 2 - 7 -14.3 -4.8 -9.3
  Feb 02, 2023 189   @ Montana L 69-76 24%    
  Feb 04, 2023 120   @ Montana St. L 68-79 14%    
  Feb 06, 2023 213   Weber St. L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 09, 2023 247   Portland St. W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 11, 2023 219   Sacramento St. L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 16, 2023 309   @ Idaho L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 18, 2023 161   @ Eastern Washington L 75-84 20%    
  Feb 25, 2023 293   Northern Arizona W 78-74 66%    
  Feb 27, 2023 283   Idaho St. W 75-71 65%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 1.6 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 5.3 5.0 0.4 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 7.4 10.3 1.7 0.0 20.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 8.8 14.2 3.7 0.1 27.9 8th
9th 0.7 6.2 10.5 3.2 0.1 20.8 9th
10th 0.7 3.8 5.4 1.9 0.1 11.9 10th
Total 0.7 4.5 12.6 21.9 25.4 20.0 10.6 3.5 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.7% 6.0% 6.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.4
8-10 10.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 10.2
7-11 20.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.4 19.6
6-12 25.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.4 25.1
5-13 21.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 21.6
4-14 12.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.5
3-15 4.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.4
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 7.4% 15.0 7.4
Lose Out 0.7%