Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -0.8 170
Results Rating -0.5 169
Consistency 0.12 45
Pace 70.8 117
Improvement -0.7 219

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 149 B- C- C- D- C+
Defense C- 215 C+ C+ F D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 179 B 63% 77 +1.9 109
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 252 C 39% 150 -0.9 228
Three Pointers 43% 130 C+ 35% 124 +2.1 105
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 139 B- +2.7 90
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 84
Second Chance D+ 27.3% 263 C+ 1.08 107 C- 0.29 213
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 215
Other Turnovers C 7.5% 212
Turnovers C- 17.2% 205
Freethrows F+ 0.23 352 C+ 74% 155 D- 0.17 348
Total Offense C +0.7 149

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 169 B 8.4% 47
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 256 C 5.1% 186
Three Pointers A- 94% 11 D- 1.7% 339
Total B- 59% 95 B- 4.9% 98

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 18 C 57% 164 +3.8 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 216 D 42% 307 +0.2 204
Three Pointers 35% 335 A- 29% 12 -5.6 7
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 292 B- -2.2 90
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 125
Second Chance B 26.2% 46 D 1.14 322 C+ 0.30 148
Turnovers from Steals F 4.8% 365
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 159
Turnovers F 12.2% 361
Freethrows D+ 0.34 280 F+ 76% 352 D 0.26 315
Total Defense C- -1.5 215

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 36% 9 D+ 8.1% 294
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 126 D- 1.4% 347
Three Pointers A+ 67% 2 C 1.0% 131
Total A 41% 5 D+ 4.3% 280

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 162 17.2 161
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 354 0.14 81
Consistency 0.10 52 0.10 36
Improvement -0.5 212 -0.2 203

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 196 174 149
Results Rating Rank 215 174 139
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 15% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 79% 100% 64%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round12% 15% 10%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 40.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 67 - 8
Quad 410 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 280 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 61% +5  93% 1 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C+ C- F B+ +5 B A- F
 Fri, Nov 21 115 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 35% +5  92% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D- -6 C- A- F A +9 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 224 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 49% +2  64% 2 - 1 B- +5 C +0 C C A- B +5 A- F D-
 Sun, Nov 23 206 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 57% +4  85% 3 - 1 C +1 B +7 C- B- A+ D -6 C+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 350 @Air Force W 71 - 53 82% +5  73% 4 - 1 B- +7 C+ +2 A- F C A- +8 A- C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 252 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 55% +1  56% 5 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 B- F C+ B- +2 B+ F D-
 Sat, Dec 6 285 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 81% +2  67% 6 - 1 D+ -8 C +1 A D+ D F+ -9 D D+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 12 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  0% 6 - 2 B +11 A+ +26 A+ A+ B F -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 243 Denver L 79 - 86 75% +2  58% 6 - 3 F+ -15 F+ -8 D D C+ D- -6 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 66 @Colorado W 86 - 81 12% +2  57% 7 - 3 A- +17 A +12 A+ B- C- B +5 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 153 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 34% -6  8% 7 - 4 0 - 1 D -11 C- -1 D+ A D F+ -10 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 193 @Montana L 79 - 88 43% -9  0% 7 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -8 C- -1 F B- B D -6 B- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 249 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 75% +11  98% 8 - 5 1 - 2 B- +5 A- +9 A+ D- B D+ -3 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 209 Weber St. L 71 - 76 68% -1  37% 8 - 6 1 - 3 D -11 D -6 F B C- D -5 C- B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 159 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 36% +1  58% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C -0 C +1 A+ F C- C -1 C- F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 275 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 60% +7  86% 8 - 8 1 - 5 D+ -7 C- -1 B- F C- D -6 D+ D+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 153 Montana St. L 68 - 73 57% -4  25% 8 - 9 1 - 6 D+ -8 D+ -4 D A- D D+ -4 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 310 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 69% -2  18% 8 - 10 1 - 7 D -10 B +6 A- B F F -16 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 180 Idaho W 91 - 83 63% +2  54% 9 - 10 2 - 7 C+ +4 B +6 A- D C D+ -3 B+ A F
 Sat, Jan 31 181 Eastern Washington W 74 - 71 63% -1  34% 10 - 10 3 - 7 C -1 D+ -3 D F A+ B- +2 B- C- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 209 @Weber St. W 88 - 74 46% +10  95% 11 - 10 4 - 7 B+ +14 A +14 A A+ B+ C+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 249 @Idaho St. W 69 - 61 54% +3  68% 12 - 10 5 - 7 B- +6 D -5 C B F A+ +11 A+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 275 Sacramento St. W 95 - 79 79% +10  98% 13 - 10 6 - 7 B- +7 C+ +2 A+ F D+ B- +3 B+ A F
 Sat, Feb 14 159 Portland St. W 77 - 65 59% 14 - 10 7 - 7 B +9
 Sat, Feb 21 310 Northern Arizona W 78 - 77 85% +3  83% 15 - 10 8 - 7 D -11 C- -2 D+ B B- F+ -9 C- D F
 Thu, Feb 26 181 @Eastern Washington L 72 - 82 40% -0  49% 15 - 11 8 - 8 D -8 C- -1 C+ F D+ D- -7 D- B F
 Sat, Feb 28 180 @Idaho L 75 - 78 40%
 Mon, Mar 2 193 Montana W 79 - 75 65%
Totals 16 - 12 9 - 9 -1 C +1 A B- C+ C- -1 C+ C+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B C C+ B- 38% 31% 43% C+ B- D+ C+ C- C- F+ C+ D- C- C D A- B- 46% 19% 35% D+ C+ B D C+ F D+ F+ D
1.10 63% 39% 35% +3 0 1.08 27% 1.1 .29 17% .23 74% .17 1.11 57% 42% 29% -2 +1 0.99 26% 1.1 .30 12% .34 76% .18
Nov
15		 Pepperdine D+ C- A+ C- C+ 43% 13% 44% C C+ C+ D C- F A+ B+ A+ B+ A- F A+ B+ 46% 22% 32% D B C- A+ A- F F A+ F+
1.07 57% 57% 33% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 24% .40 76% .30 0.98 48% 50% 25% -6 0 0.90 30% 0.6 .18 13% .42 67% .28
Nov
21		 St. Thomas D- C+ A+ F D+ 47% 9% 44% B+ C- D+ A+ A- F A+ A- A+ A A- A+ B+ A+ 48% 9% 43% D+ A+ F D- F C B- A- B+
0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31 1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16
Nov
22		 Portland C C A+ F C- 43% 15% 43% B- C F A+ C A- D A+ C+ B C+ D- A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% F A- C- F F D- A- C- B+
1.07 58% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 17% 2.0 .34 14% .26 89% .23 0.99 59% 43% 17% -10 +2 0.87 30% 1.6 .48 17% .24 75% .18
Nov
23		 Cal St. Fullerton B B+ C- D+ C- 35% 15% 51% C+ C- D A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D C+ A- B B 55% 16% 30% F C+ B C- B- F F C+ F
1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 +1 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47 1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
26		 Air Force C+ A- A A A 35% 16% 49% B- A- F D+ F C F F F A- F A+ A+ B 31% 38% 31% A+ A- B+ F C- F B- A B
1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10 0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16
Dec
3		 Nebraska Omaha C F A+ A C+ 43% 8% 49% A- B- C F F C+ D A+ C+ B- A- A C+ A 48% 15% 38% F B+ B- F F D- F B D-
1.13 50% 75% 40% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 14% .26 87% .23 1.06 48% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.92 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 68% .26
Dec
6		 South Dakota C A B- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% C- A F A+ D+ D A+ F C+ F+ C- F A+ D 58% 23% 19% D D C F+ D+ C- D- F F
1.17 72% 44% 42% +12 +1 1.28 21% 1.7 .34 18% .40 56% .22 1.14 58% 58% 20% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 17% .43 93% .39
Dec
16		 Texas Tech A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 34% 23% 43% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B F F F F F F F F 28% 22% 50% B- F A+ F A+ F F D- F
1.31 74% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.25 38% 1.4 .53 15% .14 50% .07 1.47 80% 75% 44% +22 -1 1.44 15% 1.5 .23 4% .37 79% .29
Dec
20		 Denver F+ A+ F F D 44% 15% 41% C+ D C+ F D C+ F F F D- D A+ F D- 54% 20% 26% F F+ A+ F A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.10 81% 22% 21% 0 +1 1.03 36% 0.9 .33 13% .16 40% .06 1.20 62% 27% 50% +6 +1 1.17 11% 1.7 .19 13% .32 90% .29
Dec
28		 Colorado A D A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B A+ C- A+ B- C- C- B+ C B A- A- B- A+ 38% 29% 32% A- A+ C B B- F A+ F B+
1.18 50% 55% 50% +9 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .31 18% .28 76% .22 1.11 52% 32% 33% -5 -1 0.91 32% 0.9 .28 7% .22 93% .21
Jan
1		 Montana St. C- C F C D+ 40% 19% 40% C- D+ C+ A+ A D D A+ C F+ C- F A- C 39% 18% 43% F D+ A- F F F C- C+ C-
1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20 1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20
Jan
3		 Montana C- C- F F+ F 23% 30% 48% F F C+ B+ B- B B- B+ B D F A- B+ B- 35% 20% 45% B- B- A- B- B+ F F F F
1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24 1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53
Jan
8		 Idaho St. A- A A+ A+ A+ 27% 10% 63% C+ A+ D- D D- B F+ D F+ D+ D- C+ A+ A 53% 17% 30% D B+ C B C+ D F C F
1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19 1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31
Jan
10		 Weber St. D B- F+ F F 55% 21% 23% C+ F A+ F+ B C- B- A- B+ D C+ F B+ B- 73% 4% 22% F C- C A- B D- F B- F
1.07 65% 30% 9% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 17% .36 80% .29 1.14 55% 50% 30% -3 +5 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .57 70% .40
Jan
15		 Portland St. C A+ F A+ A+ 26% 16% 58% C- A+ F F F C- D F+ D- C D+ F A+ D+ 43% 26% 32% B+ C- F+ F F A- F D+ F
1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22 1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36
Jan
17		 Sacramento St. C- A+ C- D- B 41% 16% 43% C- B- F D- F C- F A+ F D F C B- D 26% 27% 47% B D+ D+ C- D+ F F B F
1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17 1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35
Jan
19		 Montana St. D+ F+ D- C D- 51% 16% 33% B D A+ D A- D F F F D+ A- C+ F C 40% 10% 50% F D+ A+ A+ A+ F F D+ F
1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02 1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27
Jan
24		 Northern Arizona B B+ B- A+ A+ 26% 26% 48% F A- A+ F+ B F F A+ F F F D+ F F 33% 33% 33% A F A- F F F+ F F+ F
1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13 1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26
Jan
29		 Idaho B B+ F A+ A- 50% 19% 31% A A- D- B D C A+ D A+ D+ A+ F+ C- A- 38% 13% 50% D+ B+ A A A F F F F
1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35 1.09 38% 43% 36% -6 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34
Jan
31		 Eastern Washington D+ B- A+ F D 38% 9% 54% B- D C- F F A+ F A- F B- B B+ D B 52% 17% 31% F B- A+ F C- C- A+ F A
1.10 62% 60% 27% -2 +1 1.00 31% 0.8 .24 6% .17 82% .14 1.05 52% 33% 38% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.7 .36 18% .18 90% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Weber St. A A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 15% 41% C+ A D A+ A+ B+ F D F C+ B- F A+ A- 54% 15% 31% D+ B+ C+ A+ A+ F D- F F
1.30 71% 50% 41% +12 +1 1.28 24% 2.0 .48 13% .17 70% .12 1.10 54% 75% 13% -7 +2 0.92 30% 0.5 .15 9% .39 83% .32
Feb
7		 Idaho St. D B C- C+ C+ 41% 24% 35% D+ C D- A+ B F F A+ F A+ A+ A+ B A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ A+ F C- F B- B+ B
1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14 0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19
Feb
12		 Sacramento St. C+ A+ A- B A+ 45% 6% 48% B A+ F F F D+ F B F B- A D A A- 39% 17% 44% F B+ A+ C A F F F+ F
1.20 79% 50% 37% +12 +2 1.31 24% 0.9 .21 18% .20 77% .15 0.99 43% 40% 27% -10 +1 0.83 17% 1.1 .20 10% .43 84% .36
Feb
14		 Portland St.
Feb
21		 Northern Arizona C- B F F D 55% 15% 30% B D+ F+ A+ B B- A C A F+ C+ A+ D- C+ 49% 16% 35% F C- C- D- D F F F+ F
1.17 65% 29% 29% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.7 .43 15% .39 73% .28 1.16 56% 25% 39% 0 +1 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 11% .45 74% .34
Feb
26		 Eastern Washington C- B- A+ F C+ 45% 19% 36% C C+ D- F F D+ F F+ F D- D- F A+ D 60% 19% 21% F D- A- D+ B F F F F
1.08 63% 70% 26% +4 +1 1.11 27% 0.9 .23 18% .24 69% .16 1.23 66% 78% 10% +4 +2 1.15 25% 1.2 .29 12% .41 83% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 2.3 2.3 3rd
4th 4.0 20.3 24.3 4th
5th 19.1 3.5 22.6 5th
6th 23.7 23.7 6th
7th 21.4 5.5 27.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 21.4 52.3 26.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 26.2% 16.5% 16.5% 13.5 0.1 1.9 2.1 0.2 21.9
9-9 52.3% 11.6% 11.6% 14.1 0.0 1.2 3.4 1.5 0.0 46.3
8-10 21.4% 7.0% 7.0% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.1 19.9
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 13.9 88.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.3% 100.0% 13.5 2.8 44.7 48.6 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.2%
Lose Out 7.2%