Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.3 #180
Expected Predictive Rating -1.7 #196
Pace 70.8 #122
Improvement -1.7 #255

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #132 B- C- C D- C
Defense #253 C C+ F+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #213 1.25 #82 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #227 0.78 #145 -0.8 #226
Three Pointers 45% #105 1.08 #83 +3.4 #70
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #78 +3.5 #78
Freethrows 0.24 #345 74% #130 0.18 #330
Second Chance 28.2% #249 1.05 #144 0.30 #213
Turnovers 16.8% #167
Total Offense +1.2 #132

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #30 1.17 #186 -3.8 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #199 0.83 #299 -0.5 #222
Three Pointers 35% #331 0.89 #36 +5.1 #14
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #149 +0.8 #149
Freethrows 0.33 #277 76% #345 0.25 #303
Second Chance 26.5% #50 1.13 #317 0.30 #152
Turnovers 12.6% #356
Total Defense -2.5 #253

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #159 1.1% #271
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.3% #78 -2.7% #126
Possession Length 17.2 #161 17.3 #182
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #355 0.14 #80
Improvement +0.1 #176 -1.8 #289

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 11.8% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 81.3% 91.5% 70.7%
.500 or above in Conference 39.3% 56.7% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.1% 8.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round10.1% 11.8% 8.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 76 - 9
Quad 410 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 275 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 58% +5  1 - 0 +3 +2 B- C F +1 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 123 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 36% +5  1 - 1 +1 -3 C- B+ F +5 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 205 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 44% +2  2 - 1 +6 +3 C C B+ +3 A F D
 Sun, Nov 23 217 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 57% +4  3 - 1 +1 +11 C B- A+ -11 C C+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 350 @Air Force W 71 - 53 77% +5  4 - 1 +9 +7 A F C+ +4 B+ C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 242 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 52% +1  5 - 1 +3 +5 B F C+ -2 B- F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 285 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 80% +2  6 - 1 -8 +2 A- D D+ -10 D C C-
 Tue, Dec 16 19 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  6 - 2 +10 +28 A+ A+ B+ -18 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 274 Denver L 79 - 86 78% +2  6 - 3 -16 -6 D D C+ -11 F+ A+ D
 Sun, Dec 28 77 @Colorado W 86 - 81 13% +2  7 - 3 +16 +12 A+ C+ D+ +3 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 157 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 34% -6  7 - 4 0 - 1 -11 +2 C- A+ D+ -13 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 171 @Montana L 79 - 88 36% -9  7 - 5 0 - 2 -7 +1 F+ C+ B -7 C+ B+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 243 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 73% +11  8 - 5 1 - 2 +5 +12 A+ D- B -6 A- C D
 Sat, Jan 10 236 Weber St. L 71 - 76 72% -1  8 - 6 1 - 3 -12 -4 F+ C+ C+ -9 C- B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 140 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 29% +1  8 - 7 1 - 4 +1 +4 A+ F C -3 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 258 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 55% +7  8 - 8 1 - 5 -7 +2 B- F C -9 D+ C- F
 Mon, Jan 19 157 Montana St. L 68 - 73 57% -4  8 - 9 1 - 6 -8 -1 D A- D+ -7 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 306 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 66% -2  8 - 10 1 - 7 -10 +8 A- B F -18 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 187 Idaho W 91 - 83 63% +2  9 - 10 2 - 7 +3 +9 A- D+ C+ -6 B A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 234 Eastern Washington W 74 - 71 71% -1  10 - 10 3 - 7 -4 -2 D F A+ -2 C+ C- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 236 @Weber St. W 88 - 74 51% +10  11 - 10 4 - 7 +13 +15 A A- A- -2 B A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 243 @Idaho St. W 77 - 76 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 258 Sacramento St. W 86 - 79 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 140 Portland St. W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 306 Northern Arizona W 81 - 71 83%
 Thu, Feb 26 234 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 80 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 @Idaho L 75 - 78 41%
 Mon, Mar 2 171 Montana W 79 - 77 60%
Totals 15 - 13 8 - 10 -1 +1 B- C- C -3 C C+ F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.5 0.8 2nd
3rd 1.0 3.8 2.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.8 8.2 7.2 0.4 16.6 4th
5th 0.3 8.7 11.3 1.3 21.5 5th
6th 0.0 4.2 13.4 3.3 20.9 6th
7th 1.1 9.2 5.4 0.1 15.8 7th
8th 0.3 4.7 5.8 0.5 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 3.2 0.5 5.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.2 2.4 9.4 19.9 28.8 23.8 12.6 2.9 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 2.9% 22.2% 22.2% 12.9 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.2
10-8 12.6% 17.0% 17.0% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 10.5
9-9 23.8% 13.8% 13.8% 14.1 0.6 1.7 0.9 0.0 20.6
8-10 28.8% 8.7% 8.7% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.1 26.3
7-11 19.9% 5.1% 5.1% 15.2 0.0 0.8 0.2 18.9
6-12 9.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.2 0.3 8.9
5-13 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 2.3
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 14.2 89.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.9 29.7 53.1 17.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%