Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #175
Expected Predictive Rating +1.1 #150
Pace 70.9 #136
Improvement -2.6 #313

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #143 B- C- C C C+
Defense #228 C+ C- C F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #199 1.23 #99 +0.8 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #234 0.85 #75 -0.2 #186
Three Pointers 45% #116 1.05 #127 +2.8 #99
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #94 +3.4 #93
Freethrows 15.7 #271 73% #153 11.5 #250
Second Chance 27.1% #279 1.15 #79 0.31 #194
Turnovers 16.9% #190
Total Offense +0.7 #143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #56 1.16 #172 -3.1 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.78 #220 -0.4 #220
Three Pointers 36% #313 0.90 #53 +4.8 #28
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #133 +1.3 #135
Freethrows 17.7 #202 76% #312 13.5 #123
Second Chance 25.0% #23 1.24 #346 0.31 #159
Turnovers 11.9% #361
Total Defense -1.8 #228

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #153 0.7% #237
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.0% #91 -3.2% #120
Possession Length 17.4 #187 17.0 #144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #344 0.14 #78
Improvement -0.9 #249 -1.7 #290

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 14.8% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 85.2% 90.9% 76.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.1% 75.7% 50.8%
Conference Champion 8.8% 12.1% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.1% 7.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round12.7% 14.7% 9.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 267 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 57%     4.6   1 - 0 +4.0 +2.9 +0.1
  Fri, Nov 21 140 St. Thomas L 72-73 41%     5.3   1 - 1 +0.2 -3.8 +4.0
  Sat, Nov 22 240 @Portland W 86-80 OT 52%     2.3   2 - 1 +4.3 +2.1 +1.5
  Sun, Nov 23 255 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 67%     3.7   3 - 1 -1.5 +7.9 -10.0
  Wed, Nov 26 336 @Air Force W 71-53 74%     5.0   4 - 1 +10.1 +7.7 +5.0
  Wed, Dec 3 261 @Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 57%     0.6   5 - 1 +2.2 +3.6 -1.1
  Sat, Dec 6 291 South Dakota W 89-87 OT 81%     2.3   6 - 1 -8.2 +1.4 -9.8
  Tue, Dec 16 17 @Texas Tech L 90-101 4%     -7.0   6 - 2 +8.6 +26.9 -18.5
  Sat, Dec 20 266 Denver L 79-86 77%     2.1   6 - 3 -15.9 -5.9 -9.8
  Sun, Dec 28 80 @Colorado W 86-81 15%     2.0   7 - 3 +15.2 +12.0 +3.0
  Thu, Jan 1 156 @Montana St. L 75-89 35%     -5.8   7 - 4 0 - 1 -11.1 +1.6 -12.3
  Sat, Jan 3 190 @Montana L 79-88 42%     -8.8   7 - 5 0 - 2 -8.0 -0.8 -6.5
  Thu, Jan 8 179 Idaho St. W 76-73 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 224 Weber St. W 82-77 69%    
  Thu, Jan 15 154 @Portland St. L 72-76 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 293 @Sacramento St. W 82-79 63%    
  Mon, Jan 19 156 Montana St. W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 288 @Northern Arizona W 75-72 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 181 Idaho W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 248 Eastern Washington W 85-78 75%    
  Thu, Feb 5 224 @Weber St. L 79-80 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 179 @Idaho St. L 73-76 40%    
  Thu, Feb 12 293 Sacramento St. W 85-76 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 154 Portland St. W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 288 Northern Arizona W 78-69 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 248 @Eastern Washington W 82-81 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 181 @Idaho L 74-77 40%    
  Mon, Mar 2 190 Montana W 81-77 64%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.4 2.7 0.7 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 6.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.1 7.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 7.1 3.8 0.4 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.9 4.1 0.5 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.5 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 2.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.3 5.8 9.7 13.0 15.3 15.8 14.0 10.5 6.4 2.9 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 97.1% 1.0    0.8 0.2
14-4 75.9% 2.2    1.5 0.7 0.1
13-5 50.9% 3.2    1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-6 17.1% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1
11-7 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.2 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 45.0% 45.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.0% 37.7% 37.7% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
14-4 2.9% 34.5% 34.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9
13-5 6.4% 26.5% 26.5% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 4.7
12-6 10.5% 21.7% 21.7% 13.8 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.3 8.2
11-7 14.0% 16.5% 16.5% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 11.7
10-8 15.8% 13.3% 13.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 13.7
9-9 15.3% 9.2% 9.2% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 13.9
8-10 13.0% 6.2% 6.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 12.2
7-11 9.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.3
6-12 5.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 5.7
5-13 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.2
4-14 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.2 3.2 0.6 87.2 0.0%