Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#171
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#143
Pace70.8#143
Improvement-2.1#311

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#145
First Shot+1.7#121
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#250
Layup/Dunks+2.2#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#147
Freethrows-1.7#286
Improvement-0.4#203

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#211
First Shot-2.3#250
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#109
Layups/Dunks-4.1#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#33
Freethrows-1.2#276
Improvement-1.7#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 20.6% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 83.6% 95.1% 81.8%
.500 or above in Conference 77.7% 85.9% 76.4%
Conference Champion 22.5% 30.5% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.4% 3.8%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round15.8% 20.5% 15.1%
Second Round0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 55 - 7
Quad 413 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 262 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 58%     1 - 0 +4.4 +2.6 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 21 135 St. Thomas L 72-73 41%     1 - 1 +0.7 -3.3 +4.1
  Sat, Nov 22 256 @Portland W 86-80 OT 56%     2 - 1 +3.7 +1.6 +1.3
  Sun, Nov 23 242 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 65%     3 - 1 -0.7 +8.7 -10.0
  Wed, Nov 26 322 @Air Force W 71-53 72%     4 - 1 +11.2 +7.2 +6.6
  Wed, Dec 3 221 @Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 51%     5 - 1 +4.2 +4.1 +0.4
  Sat, Dec 6 291 South Dakota W 89-87 OT 81%     6 - 1 -7.8 +1.7 -9.7
  Tue, Dec 16 24 @Texas Tech L 90-101 5%     6 - 2 +7.2 +25.5 -18.4
  Sat, Dec 20 290 Denver L 79-86 81%     6 - 3 -16.7 -5.9 -10.7
  Sun, Dec 28 73 @Colorado L 73-84 14%    
  Thu, Jan 1 168 @Montana St. L 71-74 39%    
  Sat, Jan 3 209 @Montana L 78-79 48%    
  Thu, Jan 8 175 Idaho St. W 74-71 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 223 Weber St. W 81-75 72%    
  Thu, Jan 15 173 @Portland St. L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 17 276 @Sacramento St. W 80-77 59%    
  Mon, Jan 19 168 Montana St. W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 289 @Northern Arizona W 74-71 61%    
  Thu, Jan 29 177 Idaho W 76-72 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 258 Eastern Washington W 84-76 76%    
  Thu, Feb 5 223 @Weber St. W 78-77 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 175 @Idaho St. L 71-74 41%    
  Thu, Feb 12 276 Sacramento St. W 83-74 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 173 Portland St. W 74-71 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 289 Northern Arizona W 77-68 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 258 @Eastern Washington W 81-79 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 177 @Idaho L 73-75 41%    
  Mon, Mar 2 209 Montana W 82-76 69%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.5 6.1 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 22.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.3 6.2 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.4 3.1 0.7 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 6.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.2 2.7 0.3 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 4.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.6 6.1 9.0 11.6 13.5 14.5 12.8 10.4 7.4 4.5 2.0 0.7 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
16-2 99.3% 2.0    1.9 0.1
15-3 95.6% 4.3    3.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 82.2% 6.1    4.4 1.6 0.1
13-5 52.3% 5.5    2.6 2.3 0.5 0.0
12-6 24.6% 3.2    0.7 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.2% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.5% 22.5 14.4 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 58.0% 58.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 45.0% 45.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.0% 41.5% 41.5% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.5% 34.6% 34.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.0
14-4 7.4% 29.5% 29.5% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 5.3
13-5 10.4% 24.3% 24.3% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 7.9
12-6 12.8% 19.6% 19.6% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.0 10.3
11-7 14.5% 16.1% 16.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.1 12.1
10-8 13.5% 12.3% 12.3% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 11.9
9-9 11.6% 9.2% 9.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 10.6
8-10 9.0% 5.7% 5.7% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 8.5
7-11 6.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.9
6-12 3.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.6
5-13 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.4 6.1 4.8 1.1 84.0 0.0%