Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 157
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 165
Pace 70.8 116
Improvement +1.1 146

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 140 B- C- C D- C+
Defense C- 201 C+ C+ F D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 209 B 63% 72 +1.3 126
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 256 C 38% 178 -1.0 236
Three Pointers 44% 111 B- 36% 99 +3.1 77
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 156 B- +3.0 84
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 83
Second Chance D+ 27.7% 259 C+ 1.07 118 C- 0.30 215
Turnovers C 17.2% 199
Freethrows F+ 0.23 357 C+ 74% 130 D- 0.17 346
Total Offense C +1.0 140

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 173 B+ 7.7% 35
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 273 C 5.4% 217
Three Pointers A- 94% 12 F+ 1.9% 345
Total B- 60% 89 B- 4.7% 83

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 25 C 57% 158 +3.4 293
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 207 D+ 41% 274 +0.1 192
Three Pointers 35% 326 A- 29% 24 -5.2 9
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 277 B- -2.3 93
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 121
Second Chance B+ 26.0% 39 D- 1.15 334 C+ 0.30 146
Turnovers F 12.4% 359
Freethrows D+ 0.33 265 D- 76% 349 D 0.25 303
Total Defense C- -1.0 201

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 36% 7 D 7.3% 320
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 118 D- 1.8% 335
Three Pointers A+ 69% 3 C 1.0% 139
Total A 42% 5 D 4.0% 308

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 152 17.2 167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 353 0.14 77
Improvement +0.2 #176 +0.9 #129

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 17% 13%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 99% 100% 95%
.500 or above in Conference 85% 90% 51%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round16% 17% 13%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 86.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 20 - 11 - 2
Quad 37 - 68 - 8
Quad 410 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 276 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 64% +5  93% 1 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -2 C+ C F B +5 B A- F
 Fri, Nov 21 123 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 39% +5  92% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D- -7 C- B+ F A +9 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 219 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 51% +2  64% 2 - 1 B- +6 C -0 C C A- B +5 A F D
 Sun, Nov 23 207 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 61% +4  85% 3 - 1 C +1 B +7 C- B A+ D- -7 C+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 347 @Air Force W 71 - 53 83% +5  73% 4 - 1 B- +8 C+ +3 A F C+ A- +7 A- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 239 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 55% +1  56% 5 - 1 C+ +4 C +1 B- F C+ B- +3 B+ F D-
 Sat, Dec 6 291 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 83% +2  67% 6 - 1 D -8 C +0 A D+ D F+ -9 D C- C-
 Tue, Dec 16 18 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  0% 6 - 2 B +10 A+ +26 A+ A+ B+ F -16 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 235 Denver L 79 - 86 75% +2  58% 6 - 3 D- -14 D- -7 D+ D+ C D- -7 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 72 @Colorado W 86 - 81 15% +2  57% 7 - 3 A- +16 A- +10 A+ C+ D+ B+ +5 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 148 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 37% -6  8% 7 - 4 0 - 1 D -11 C- -0 D+ A D F -10 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 183 @Montana L 79 - 88 44% -9  0% 7 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 F B- B D -6 B- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 263 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 79% +11  98% 8 - 5 1 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +9 A+ F+ B D+ -4 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 225 Weber St. L 71 - 76 73% -1  37% 8 - 6 1 - 3 D- -12 D- -6 F B C D -6 C- B D
 Thu, Jan 15 143 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 35% +1  58% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C +1 C +1 A+ F C- C -0 C F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 270 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 63% +7  86% 8 - 8 1 - 5 D+ -7 C- -1 B- F D+ D -6 D+ C- F
 Mon, Jan 19 148 Montana St. L 68 - 73 60% -4  25% 8 - 9 1 - 6 D+ -8 D+ -4 D A D D+ -4 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 311 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 72% -2  18% 8 - 10 1 - 7 D -10 B +6 A- B F F -16 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 187 Idaho W 91 - 83 68% +2  54% 9 - 10 2 - 7 C+ +3 B +6 A- D C D+ -3 B+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 201 Eastern Washington W 74 - 71 70% -1  34% 10 - 10 3 - 7 C- -2 D -4 D F A+ B- +2 B- C- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 225 @Weber St. W 88 - 74 52% +10  95% 11 - 10 4 - 7 B+ +13 A +13 A A B+ C+ +1 B A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 263 @Idaho St. W 69 - 61 60% +3  68% 12 - 10 5 - 7 B- +5 D -5 C B- F A +11 A+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 270 Sacramento St. W 95 - 79 81% +10  98% 13 - 10 6 - 7 B- +7 C+ +2 A+ F D+ B- +3 B A F
 Sat, Feb 14 143 Portland St. W 77 - 65 58% 14 - 10 7 - 7 B +10
 Sat, Feb 21 311 Northern Arizona W 81 - 69 87%
 Thu, Feb 26 201 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 80 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 @Idaho L 76 - 77 46%
 Mon, Mar 2 183 Montana W 79 - 75 66%
Totals 16 - 12 9 - 9 +0 C +1 B B- C+ C- -1 B- C+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B C B- B- 38% 31% 44% C+ B- D+ C+ C- C F+ C+ D- C- C D+ A- B- 45% 20% 35% D+ C+ B+ D- C+ F D+ D- D
1.10 63% 38% 36% +3 0 1.09 28% 1.1 .30 17% .23 74% .17 1.10 57% 41% 29% -2 +1 0.99 26% 1.2 .30 12% .33 76% .18
Nov
15		 Pepperdine D+ C- A+ C C+ 43% 13% 44% C C+ B- D C F A+ B A+ B B+ F A+ B+ 46% 22% 32% D B C- A+ A- F F A+ F+
1.07 57% 57% 33% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 24% .40 76% .30 0.98 48% 50% 25% -6 0 0.90 30% 0.6 .18 13% .42 67% .28
Nov
21		 St. Thomas D- C+ A+ F D 47% 9% 44% B+ C- D+ A+ B+ F A+ A- A+ A A- A+ B+ A+ 48% 9% 43% D+ A+ F D- F C B A B+
0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31 1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16
Nov
22		 Portland C C A+ F C- 43% 15% 43% B C F A+ C A- D A+ C+ B C+ D A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% F+ A C F F D B+ C- B
1.07 58% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 17% 2.0 .34 14% .26 89% .23 0.99 59% 43% 17% -10 +2 0.87 30% 1.6 .48 17% .24 75% .18
Nov
23		 Cal St. Fullerton B B+ D+ D+ C- 35% 15% 51% C C- D A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D- C+ A- B- B 55% 16% 30% F C+ B C- B- F F B- F
1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 +1 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47 1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
26		 Air Force C+ A- A A A 35% 16% 49% C+ A F D+ F C+ F F F A- F A+ A+ B 31% 38% 31% A+ A- B+ F D+ F B- A B
1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10 0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16
Dec
3		 Nebraska Omaha C F A+ A C+ 43% 8% 49% A- B- C- F F C+ D A+ C+ B- A- A C+ A 48% 15% 38% F B+ B- F F D- F B D-
1.13 50% 75% 40% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 14% .26 87% .23 1.06 48% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.92 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 68% .26
Dec
6		 South Dakota C A B- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% C- A F A+ D+ D A+ F C+ F+ C- F A+ D 58% 23% 19% D D C+ D- C- C- D- F F
1.17 72% 44% 42% +12 +1 1.28 21% 1.7 .34 18% .40 56% .22 1.14 58% 58% 20% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 17% .43 93% .39
Dec
16		 Texas Tech A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 34% 23% 43% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F F F F F F F F 28% 22% 50% B- F A+ F A+ F F F+ F
1.31 74% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.25 38% 1.4 .53 15% .14 50% .07 1.47 80% 75% 44% +22 -1 1.44 15% 1.5 .23 4% .37 79% .29
Dec
20		 Denver D- A+ F F D 44% 15% 41% C+ D+ C+ F D+ C F F F D- D- A+ F D- 54% 20% 26% F F+ A+ F A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.10 81% 22% 21% 0 +1 1.03 36% 0.9 .33 13% .16 40% .06 1.20 62% 27% 50% +6 +1 1.17 11% 1.7 .19 13% .32 90% .29
Dec
28		 Colorado A- D A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B A+ C- A C+ D+ C- B+ C B+ A- A- C+ A+ 38% 29% 32% A- A+ C+ B B- F A+ F B+
1.18 50% 55% 50% +9 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .31 18% .28 76% .22 1.11 52% 32% 33% -5 -1 0.91 32% 0.9 .28 7% .22 93% .21
Jan
1		 Montana St. C- C F C D+ 40% 19% 40% C D+ C+ A+ A D D A+ C F C- F A- C- 39% 18% 43% F D+ A- F F F C- B- C-
1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20 1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20
Jan
3		 Montana C- C- F F+ F+ 23% 30% 48% F F C+ B+ B- B B- A- B D F A- B+ B- 35% 20% 45% B- B- A- B- B+ F F F F
1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24 1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53
Jan
8		 Idaho St. B+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 10% 63% C+ A+ D- D F+ B D- D F+ D+ D- C+ A+ A- 53% 17% 30% D B+ C- B- C+ D F C F
1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19 1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31
Jan
10		 Weber St. D- B- F+ F F 55% 21% 23% C+ F A+ F B C B- A B+ D C+ F B+ B- 73% 4% 22% F C- C A- B D F C+ F
1.07 65% 30% 9% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 17% .36 80% .29 1.14 55% 50% 30% -3 +5 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .57 70% .40
Jan
15		 Portland St. C A+ F A+ A+ 26% 16% 58% C- A+ F F F C- D F+ F+ C D+ F A C- 43% 26% 32% B+ C F+ F F A- F C- F
1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22 1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36
Jan
17		 Sacramento St. C- A+ D+ D- B 41% 16% 43% C- B- F D- F D+ F A+ F D F C+ B- D 26% 27% 47% B- D+ D+ C C- F F B F
1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17 1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35
Jan
19		 Montana St. D+ F+ D- C D- 51% 16% 33% B D A+ C- A D F F F D+ A- C+ F C 40% 10% 50% F D+ A+ A A+ F F C- F
1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02 1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27
Jan
24		 Northern Arizona B B+ C+ A+ A+ 26% 26% 48% F A- A+ F+ B F F A+ F F F D+ F F 33% 33% 33% A F A- F F F+ F F+ F
1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13 1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26
Jan
29		 Idaho B B+ F A+ B+ 50% 19% 31% A- A- F+ B- D C A+ D A+ D+ A+ D- C- A- 38% 13% 50% D+ B+ A- A A- F F F F
1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35 1.09 38% 43% 36% -6 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34
Jan
31		 Eastern Washington D C+ A+ F D- 38% 9% 54% B- D C- F F A+ F A- F B- B B D+ B 52% 17% 31% F B- A+ F C- C- A+ F A-
1.10 62% 60% 27% -2 +1 1.00 31% 0.8 .24 6% .17 82% .14 1.05 52% 33% 38% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.7 .36 18% .18 90% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Weber St. A A- A+ A A+ 44% 15% 41% C+ A D A+ A B+ F D+ F C+ B- F A+ A- 54% 15% 31% D+ B C+ A+ A+ F D- F F
1.30 71% 50% 41% +12 +1 1.28 24% 2.0 .48 13% .17 70% .12 1.10 54% 75% 13% -7 +2 0.92 30% 0.5 .15 9% .39 83% .32
Feb
7		 Idaho St. D B C- C+ C+ 41% 24% 35% D+ C D- A+ B- F F A+ F A A+ A+ B A+ 44% 19% 37% C A+ A+ F C- F B- B+ B
1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14 0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19
Feb
12		 Sacramento St. C+ A+ B+ B A+ 45% 6% 48% B A+ F F F D+ F B+ F B- A D+ A A- 39% 17% 44% F B A+ C A F F F+ F
1.20 79% 50% 37% +12 +2 1.31 24% 0.9 .21 18% .20 77% .15 0.99 43% 40% 27% -10 +1 0.83 17% 1.1 .20 10% .43 84% .36
Feb
14		 Portland St.



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.6 5.4 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 16.3 8.6 25.2 3rd
4th 5.7 14.9 20.6 4th
5th 1.2 19.5 3.1 23.8 5th
6th 0.1 5.8 8.8 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 1.4 6.5 0.5 8.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.7 13.7 34.8 35.9 14.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 14.0% 22.9% 22.9% 13.1 0.5 2.0 0.7 0.0 10.8
10-8 35.9% 18.5% 18.5% 13.7 0.1 2.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 29.3
9-9 34.8% 14.3% 14.3% 14.0 0.9 3.0 1.1 0.0 29.8
8-10 13.7% 9.6% 9.6% 14.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 12.3
7-11 1.7% 6.2% 6.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 13.8 83.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 13.1 15.6 62.4 21.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.8%
Lose Out 0.6%