Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #204
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 #181
Pace 80.1 #12
Improvement +5.2 #6

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #192 C C C- C- B+
Defense #224 C C- C- D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #18 1.12 #222 +3.8 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #261 0.70 #256 -2.0 #272
Three Pointers 37% #263 1.01 #193 -2.1 #261
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #187 -0.3 #187
Freethrows 17.4 #190 72% #206 12.5 #187
Second Chance 32.0% #139 0.93 #304 0.30 #228
Turnovers 17.6% #244
Total Offense -1.0 #192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.21 #243 +1.9 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #248 0.81 #261 +0.4 #165
Three Pointers 48% #28 0.96 #131 -2.5 #278
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 -0.1 #178
Freethrows 16.8 #166 79% #353 13.3 #137
Second Chance 26.8% #61 1.28 #359 0.34 #240
Turnovers 14.9% #287
Total Defense -1.6 #224

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #50 0.0% #162
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.8% #221 0.2% #187
Possession Length 15.0 #26 17.0 #150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #93 0.18 #217
Improvement +1.3 #98 +3.9 #12

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.8% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 48.3% 55.8% 30.6%
.500 or above in Conference 55.0% 62.9% 36.4%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 2.0% 7.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.3% 2.8% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 411 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 95 @Northern Iowa L 57-86 15%     -16.7   0 - 1 -20.6 -8.8 -11.1
  Sun, Nov 9 315 @North Dakota W 93-85 64%     3.6   1 - 1 +1.7 +10.5 -9.4
  Tue, Nov 11 151 @North Dakota St. L 68-90 29%     -5.3   1 - 2 -18.9 -11.8 -4.1
  Sun, Nov 16 135 Troy W 94-85 46%     3.6   2 - 2 +7.5 +17.1 -10.0
  Wed, Nov 26 180 Idaho L 64-78 45%     -4.3   2 - 3 -15.4 -13.7 -1.0
  Fri, Nov 28 179 Idaho St. L 50-82 45%     -18.1   2 - 4 -33.3 -29.2 -1.8
  Thu, Dec 4 289 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-66 77%     6.7   3 - 4 1 - 0 +10.8 +4.4 +5.2
  Sat, Dec 6 124 @UC Irvine L 71-85 23%     0.0   3 - 5 1 - 1 -8.8 +4.6 -13.5
  Wed, Dec 10 155 Fresno St. W 89-87 52%     3.8   4 - 5 -1.0 +15.4 -16.4
  Sat, Dec 13 278 @Delaware W 88-66 54%     18.7   5 - 5 +18.4 +18.4 +0.8
  Mon, Dec 22 293 Sacramento St. W 100-88 78%     4.2   6 - 5 +1.4 +8.1 -8.4
  Sat, Dec 27 78 @Stanford L 80-88 11%     -0.9   6 - 6 +2.5 +7.3 -4.3
  Thu, Jan 1 185 @UC Davis L 80-89 35%     -5.6   6 - 7 1 - 2 -7.6 +0.7 -7.5
  Sat, Jan 3 172 UC Santa Barbara W 74-65 55%     6.1   7 - 7 2 - 2 +5.1 -6.0 +10.7
  Thu, Jan 8 251 Cal Poly W 90-84 70%    
  Sat, Jan 10 256 @Cal St. Fullerton L 88-89 50%    
  Thu, Jan 15 90 @UC San Diego L 74-86 13%    
  Sat, Jan 17 260 Long Beach St. W 82-76 72%    
  Sun, Jan 25 97 @Hawaii L 71-82 16%    
  Thu, Jan 29 185 UC Davis W 82-80 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 90 UC San Diego L 77-83 29%    
  Thu, Feb 5 251 @Cal Poly L 87-88 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 297 UC Riverside W 84-76 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 97 Hawaii L 74-79 33%    
  Thu, Feb 19 172 @UC Santa Barbara L 76-81 33%    
  Sat, Feb 21 260 @Long Beach St. W 80-79 51%    
  Thu, Feb 26 124 UC Irvine L 75-77 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 297 @UC Riverside W 81-79 58%    
  Thu, Mar 5 289 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-80 56%    
  Sat, Mar 7 256 Cal St. Fullerton W 91-85 70%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.2 6.7 6.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 19.2 4th
5th 0.3 3.8 8.3 5.9 1.7 0.2 20.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 7.1 4.9 0.9 0.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.9 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 5.0 8.6 13.0 15.5 17.0 14.5 10.9 7.0 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 92.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 74.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 18.4% 18.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.4% 20.9% 20.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
14-6 3.6% 9.5% 9.5% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.3
13-7 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.5
12-8 10.9% 3.6% 3.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.6
11-9 14.5% 2.2% 2.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.2
10-10 17.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 16.8
9-11 15.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.1 0.1 15.4
8-12 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
7-13 8.6% 8.6
6-14 5.0% 5.0
5-15 2.1% 2.1
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 97.7 0.0%