Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -0.8 170
Results Rating +0.9 147
Consistency 0.17 293
Pace 81.3 3
Improvement +5.4 28

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 188 C C+ C- D+ B
Defense C 170 C C C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 6 C- 56% 234 +4.6 35
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 130 D 34% 316 -2.0 279
Three Pointers 34% 315 C 34% 168 -3.3 289
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 45 C- -1.7 239
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 195
Second Chance C+ 32.5% 107 C- 1.01 212 C+ 0.33 130
Opponents' Steals D 10.8% 308
Other Turnovers B- 6.6% 99
Turnovers C- 17.4% 233
Freethrows C 0.30 201 F 65% 355 D+ 0.20 274
Total Offense C -0.9 188

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 55% 78 C- 12.1% 252
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 118 C- 5.9% 250
Three Pointers B 90% 58 D+ 1.2% 279
Total B- 61% 70 D- 7.3% 336


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 318 C 58% 166 -3.3 73
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 269 C- 39% 225 -0.9 113
Three Pointers 49% 11 C 34% 164 +3.9 330
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 161 C -0.3 165
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 162
Second Chance B- 27.7% 84 D- 1.15 327 C 0.32 208
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 249
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 202
Turnovers C- 15.7% 240
Freethrows C 0.30 176 D 75% 321 C 0.22 201
Total Defense C +0.1 170

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 56% 329 D+ 9.1% 243
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 163 C- 3.7% 251
Three Pointers C 83% 153 C+ 1.2% 104
Total D 61% 308 D+ 4.3% 292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.1 15 16.8 98
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 163 0.20 292
Consistency 0.14 321 0.10 47
Improvement +0.9 144 +4.5 15

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 187 171 152
Results Rating Rank 170 147 128
Conference Record 12 - 8 13 - 7 13 - 7
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 7% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 10
Quad 410 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 84 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 16% -17  7% 0 - 1 F -19 F -11 F+ F+ F D- -8 D- C- C-
 Sun, Nov 9 294 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 65% +4  66% 1 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 B- B- D+ C- -3 D D- F
 Tue, Nov 11 130 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 29% -5  20% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -14 F B+ F C+ +0 A F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 155 Troy W 94 - 85 57% +4  74% 2 - 2 B- +6 A +13 A- A+ D D- -7 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 182 Idaho L 64 - 78 52% -4  30% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F -15 F C C C+ +1 A F D+
 Fri, Nov 28 266 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 69% -18  10% 2 - 4 F -38 F -34 F D F C -1 D+ F B-
 Thu, Dec 4 329 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 89% +7  73% 3 - 4 1 - 0 B- +7 C -0 B- B C B+ +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 116 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 25% +0  56% 3 - 5 1 - 1 D+ -8 B- +4 C+ F A+ F -12 C F D-
 Wed, Dec 10 131 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 51% +4  72% 4 - 5 C +1 A +14 A+ F B- F -13 F A- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 265 @Delaware W 88 - 66 58% +19  98% 5 - 5 A +19 A +13 A+ D+ C+ B+ +7 B C+ A
 Mon, Dec 22 271 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 79% +4  77% 6 - 5 C+ +3 B- +4 A- F B+ C- -3 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Dec 27 61 @Stanford L 80 - 88 11% -1  45% 6 - 6 C+ +4 B- +5 B+ F C- C+ +0 F+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 171 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 39% -6  21% 6 - 7 1 - 2 D+ -7 C -0 C- D+ D D -6 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 139 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 54% +6  94% 7 - 7 2 - 2 B- +7 D- -7 D+ B- F A+ +14 A+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 8 230 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 73% -3  18% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -2 C+ +2 A B- D D+ -4 C C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 191 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 43% +1  65% 8 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -6 D -5 D+ D+ C+ C -1 D+ C D+
 Thu, Jan 15 133 @UC San Diego W 84 - 79 30% +2  62% 9 - 8 4 - 3 B +10 A- +10 C- A A+ C -1 A F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 269 Long Beach St. L 80 - 87 78% -0  38% 9 - 9 4 - 4 F+ -16 F+ -8 F A- D D- -7 F+ B- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 115 @Hawaii L 68 - 89 25% -9  1% 9 - 10 4 - 5 F+ -15 D- -8 C D- D D -5 F A B+
 Thu, Jan 29 171 UC Davis W 94 - 78 62% +4  53% 10 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +12 B +6 A F+ B+ B +4 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 133 UC San Diego W 81 - 64 52% +7  80% 11 - 10 6 - 5 A- +16 C +2 B- A- F A+ +13 A+ C+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 230 @Cal Poly W 97 - 96 51% +5  80% 12 - 10 7 - 5 C -0 B+ +8 A- B+ C- D- -8 F C- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 277 UC Riverside W 88 - 74 79% +3  66% 13 - 10 8 - 5 C+ +5 B +6 A B+ C C- -2 B- D C-
 Sat, Feb 14 115 Hawaii W 84 - 60 46% +14  95% 14 - 10 9 - 5 A+ +24 A- +10 A+ C C- A+ +14 A A A+
 Thu, Feb 19 139 @UC Santa Barbara W 85 - 83 OT 32% -2  29% 15 - 10 10 - 5 B- +6 D+ -4 F B- A+ A +10 A+ B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 269 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 76 59% +8  91% 16 - 10 11 - 5 C -1 C -0 F A+ A C -1 D D C+
 Thu, Feb 26 116 UC Irvine L 67 - 68 46% -3  25% 16 - 11 11 - 6 C -1 D -6 C B F B +5 C+ D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 28 277 @UC Riverside L 84 - 95 60% -5  29% 16 - 12 11 - 7 D- -14 C- -2 F B B- F -11 C D- F
 Thu, Mar 5 329 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 86 - 84 75% +0  49% 17 - 12 12 - 7 D+ -6 D+ -4 F A+ F+ C- -2 F+ A F
 Sat, Mar 7 191 Cal St. Fullerton W 89 - 85 65%
Totals 18 - 12 13 - 7 -1 C -1 C+ C- B C +0 C F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D C C- 48% 42% 34% B C C+ C- C+ C- C F D+ C C C- C C 33% 18% 49% C C B- D- C C- C D C
1.07 56% 34% 34% -2 +1 1.01 33% 1.0 .33 17% .30 65% .20 1.08 58% 39% 34% 0 0 1.01 28% 1.1 .32 16% .30 75% .22
Nov
6		 Northern Iowa F F C+ D+ F+ 36% 21% 43% C- F+ B- F F+ F A+ C+ A+ D- D- A+ D- D- 42% 8% 49% D- D- B F C- C- A F B+
0.79 29% 40% 30% -13 0 0.77 29% 0.5 .13 28% .44 74% .33 1.20 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.5 .27 14% .16 80% .13
Nov
9		 North Dakota B A- F A+ B 47% 20% 33% C- B- A- D- B- D+ A+ F B+ C- F B+ A+ D- 34% 17% 48% B D B+ F D- F C- B+ C+
1.23 71% 20% 47% +9 +1 1.22 42% 1.0 .42 21% .52 61% .32 1.12 80% 30% 25% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.6 .36 11% .34 65% .22
Nov
11		 North Dakota St. F D- F F F 50% 23% 27% B- F C+ A+ B+ F C+ F+ C- C+ B- F+ A+ A+ 30% 18% 52% C- A F F F F+ F D- F
0.84 54% 23% 20% -11 0 0.80 31% 1.2 .36 25% .26 69% .18 1.12 56% 45% 22% -9 0 0.84 39% 1.4 .54 12% .37 77% .28
Nov
16		 Troy A B- A+ B B 56% 9% 35% A+ A- A+ A+ A+ D C- D+ C- D- F+ F C- F 37% 9% 54% C F+ A+ A+ A+ F D F F
1.29 60% 60% 37% +5 +3 1.17 45% 1.3 .61 19% .27 69% .19 1.16 65% 60% 34% +5 +1 1.15 21% 0.7 .15 11% .34 86% .29
Nov
26		 Idaho F A F F F 36% 24% 40% C+ F C C+ C C B+ F+ C+ C+ C- A A+ A+ 26% 7% 67% C- A C F F D+ F F F
0.87 70% 23% 14% -11 -1 0.78 26% 1.1 .28 15% .40 68% .27 1.06 57% 25% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.6 .47 15% .43 81% .35
Nov
28		 Idaho St. F F F F F 21% 26% 53% F F C F D F C- C+ C C A F C+ D- 25% 22% 53% A D+ A F F B- C D- D+
0.66 25% 13% 20% -25 -2 0.49 30% 0.9 .26 20% .31 79% .25 1.09 46% 73% 33% +4 -1 1.08 25% 1.9 .46 19% .31 79% .24
Dec
4		 Cal St. Bakersfield C C A+ C- C 57% 8% 35% A+ B- B- B- B C B F F+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 31% 38% C A+ F F F A+ F+ D- F
1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21 0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34
Dec
6		 UC Irvine B- D- F A+ C 48% 19% 33% B+ C+ F D- F A+ B F C F A D D- C 42% 27% 31% C- C F F F D- D- C+ D
1.02 43% 27% 42% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .19 10% .29 61% .18 1.22 45% 43% 38% -2 -1 0.96 41% 1.9 .76 14% .35 67% .23
Dec
10		 Fresno St. A B A+ A+ A+ 48% 11% 41% A A+ C F F B- C- A+ B+ F D B F F 37% 11% 52% D- F A- B+ A- D+ B- F C-
1.25 65% 67% 45% +14 +2 1.33 29% 0.6 .18 17% .24 93% .22 1.22 65% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.28 23% 0.9 .20 15% .27 88% .23
Dec
13		 Delaware A D- A+ A+ A+ 43% 19% 38% B A+ A- F D+ C+ D C- D B+ A+ F C B+ 29% 13% 58% D+ B F A+ C+ A F C F
1.30 52% 70% 50% +13 +1 1.28 38% 0.7 .26 13% .24 79% .19 0.98 43% 50% 36% -1 0 1.00 26% 0.6 .15 22% .34 78% .27
Dec
22		 Sacramento St. B- B- A+ B+ A- 50% 9% 41% B A- F+ F F B+ A+ B+ A+ C- A- F+ B C 32% 32% 35% B+ C+ A+ F B+ F D+ F F
1.23 62% 80% 38% +8 +2 1.22 25% 0.7 .17 13% .43 77% .33 1.08 48% 43% 30% -4 -2 0.91 15% 1.5 .23 10% .37 89% .33
Dec
27		 Stanford B- D+ F+ A+ B+ 44% 21% 35% B B+ F F F C- A+ B A+ C+ D+ B- F F 39% 7% 54% C F+ A+ A+ A+ B F B- F
1.06 52% 30% 47% +3 0 1.08 17% 0.8 .13 20% .50 80% .40 1.17 61% 33% 44% +9 +2 1.24 24% 0.5 .12 17% .61 71% .43
Jan
1		 UC Davis C C F C- D 55% 7% 38% A C- C+ F D+ D A+ F B D F C- F F 24% 29% 47% A+ F B+ B+ A- B- B+ D+ B
1.05 58% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.02 33% 0.8 .26 21% .43 62% .26 1.16 69% 38% 50% +14 -2 1.25 22% 0.9 .19 20% .29 78% .23
Jan
3		 UC Santa Barbara D- B- A+ F D- 52% 14% 33% A- D+ B C- B- F A+ F A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 5% 48% F A+ A A- A C+ D+ F D-
1.01 64% 67% 14% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.1 .34 22% .65 62% .40 0.89 54% 0% 19% -15 +3 0.77 24% 0.9 .21 19% .34 85% .29
Jan
8		 Cal Poly C+ C B A+ A 53% 13% 34% B+ A A D- B- D A+ F B- D+ C B+ D+ C- 23% 13% 64% A C A F C- F+ C B- C
1.17 61% 43% 50% +10 +2 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 17% .40 59% .24 1.11 57% 25% 36% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.4 .32 16% .31 76% .24
Jan
10		 Cal St. Fullerton D C- F C+ D- 47% 15% 38% B D+ D+ C- D+ C+ D F F C C A+ F D+ 41% 15% 44% D- D+ B- D- C D+ F B F+
1.01 61% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.03 26% 1.0 .26 18% .25 38% .09 1.10 59% 25% 42% +4 +1 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 14% .42 68% .28
Jan
15		 UC San Diego A- D B+ D C- 48% 20% 31% B- C- A- A A A+ A+ D- A+ C B+ D+ A+ A 38% 17% 45% B- A B+ F F+ F D+ D- D
1.16 50% 45% 29% -5 +1 0.94 36% 1.2 .44 10% .44 66% .29 1.09 52% 40% 26% -7 +1 0.88 21% 1.7 .36 8% .29 74% .21
Jan
17		 Long Beach St. F+ F D- F F 56% 11% 33% A F A- C A- D A D+ A- D- F C C- F+ 26% 20% 54% D F+ A F B- D+ F F F
1.01 47% 33% 22% -13 +2 0.81 37% 1.3 .46 19% .45 72% .33 1.10 79% 36% 34% +5 -1 1.11 18% 1.3 .24 16% .42 82% .35
Jan
24		 Hawaii D- F+ B+ C- C 45% 28% 28% D+ C A- F D- D C- F F D D+ F F F 30% 19% 51% A- F D A+ A B+ F C+ F
0.88 46% 44% 31% -5 0 0.91 35% 0.5 .19 18% .30 47% .14 1.15 63% 50% 41% +9 0 1.19 34% 0.6 .21 22% .48 72% .35
Jan
29		 UC Davis B A+ F B+ A 48% 8% 43% B+ A D F F+ B+ B- F F+ B B- A+ D- B 35% 25% 40% B- B B D C+ D+ D+ A+ B-
1.18 76% 20% 38% +10 +2 1.27 26% 0.8 .21 16% .34 52% .18 0.98 55% 21% 39% -2 -1 0.96 23% 1.1 .26 16% .37 64% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC San Diego C C B+ C B- 48% 17% 35% B B- A+ C- A- F A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ 43% 16% 41% C A+ D A- C+ D+ C- A+ A-
1.08 56% 44% 33% 0 +1 1.04 40% 1.0 .40 21% .39 78% .30 0.85 42% 22% 30% -12 +1 0.80 29% 0.9 .25 15% .28 44% .12
Feb
5		 Cal Poly B+ D A+ A+ A- 49% 17% 33% B- A- D A+ B+ C- F D F D- F F+ F 33% 0% 67% D+ F A+ F C- D+ A F B
1.22 55% 55% 48% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.6 .43 16% .15 70% .10 1.20 74% 38% +10 +2 1.26 16% 2.0 .32 19% .22 93% .20
Feb
7		 UC Riverside B C+ B- A+ A 62% 17% 21% A- A C- A+ B+ C C+ F F C- C D- A- B- 25% 13% 63% C B- F C D C- A F B-
1.21 61% 44% 55% +9 +2 1.25 29% 1.3 .39 15% .36 45% .16 1.02 57% 43% 29% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.9 .30 18% .22 92% .20
Feb
14		 Hawaii A- C- C- A+ A+ 48% 21% 31% C+ A+ D- A+ C C- B B- B A+ A D- A- A 35% 14% 51% B- A C+ A+ A A+ C- A B-
1.17 52% 36% 56% +7 +1 1.17 21% 1.3 .27 17% .35 71% .25 0.84 47% 43% 28% -8 +1 0.88 29% 0.7 .20 25% .37 65% .24
Feb
19		 UC Santa Barbara D+ D- F F F 48% 27% 24% C F B C B- A+ B F+ C A A+ A+ C+ A+ 20% 18% 63% B+ A+ B B+ B+ C+ F D- F
1.02 53% 22% 19% -12 0 0.77 32% 1.1 .36 7% .39 67% .26 1.00 45% 20% 34% -5 -1 0.89 27% 0.9 .25 19% .48 81% .39
Feb
21		 Long Beach St. C F+ F F F 68% 16% 16% A F A- A+ A+ A F+ F F C B B- F D- 25% 29% 45% B- D C- F+ D C+ D- C D-
1.09 50% 22% 22% -11 +3 0.86 37% 1.5 .55 13% .29 50% .14 1.06 54% 33% 43% +4 -2 1.06 27% 1.2 .33 18% .32 74% .24
Feb
26		 UC Irvine D C- C+ F D 58% 10% 33% A+ C B B- B F A+ F A- B B F+ A- B- 47% 25% 27% D C+ B F D+ A+ A+ F B
0.92 50% 40% 24% -10 +3 0.88 38% 1.0 .38 23% .37 62% .23 0.93 50% 46% 29% -4 0 0.94 27% 1.4 .37 25% .20 82% .16
Feb
28		 UC Riverside C- C+ F F F 58% 16% 26% A- F C+ B+ B B- C- B C F D+ F A C+ 37% 8% 55% F+ C F+ D+ D- F D F+ D-
1.06 61% 10% 19% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.1 .37 14% .34 74% .25 1.20 61% 60% 26% -3 +2 0.98 33% 0.9 .31 8% .34 80% .27
Mar
5		 Cal St. Bakersfield D+ D B F F 38% 22% 40% C- F B+ A+ A+ F+ F B+ D- C- D A D- D- 39% 25% 36% F F+ A A- A F B A+ A
1.08 52% 46% 25% -6 0 0.90 43% 1.4 .60 21% .29 78% .22 1.06 63% 27% 36% 0 0 1.02 24% 0.8 .19 13% .32 64% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 34.9 65.1 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 34.9 65.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 65.1% 6.8% 6.8% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 60.7
12-8 34.9% 5.0% 5.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 33.2
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 13.9 93.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.4% 100.0% 13.8 1.4 32.1 54.3 11.8 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.5%
Lose Out 18.1%