Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #191
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #163
Pace 80.9 #6
Improvement +6.1 #12

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #195 C C C- C- B
Defense #211 C C D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #11 1.12 #216 +4.3 #44
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #237 0.73 #225 -1.4 #258
Three Pointers 35% #307 1.04 #142 -2.6 #272
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #165 +0.3 #165
Freethrows 0.31 #169 66% #344 0.21 #243
Second Chance 32.6% #124 0.94 #292 0.31 #190
Turnovers 17.8% #230
Total Offense -0.9 #195

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #311 1.17 #198 +2.7 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #236 0.78 #223 +0.6 #137
Three Pointers 48% #24 1.01 #163 -3.3 #314
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #182 +0.0 #179
Freethrows 0.31 #198 75% #330 0.23 #229
Second Chance 26.8% #58 1.22 #356 0.33 #216
Turnovers 15.5% #260
Total Defense -1.0 #211

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #53 -0.2% #152
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #196 0.3% #190
Possession Length 15.0 #16 16.8 #110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #123 0.20 #280
Improvement +1.9 #83 +4.1 #14

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.5% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 78.7% 84.7% 56.6%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 93.0% 70.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.0% 4.5% 2.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 78.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 5
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 410 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 107 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 20% -17  0 - 1 -22 -9 F+ D- F -13 F+ D+ C-
 Sun, Nov 9 282 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 57% +4  1 - 1 +4 +9 B- B- C -6 D+ D F
 Tue, Nov 11 149 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 30% -5  1 - 2 -18 -12 F B+ F -3 A F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 138 Troy W 94 - 85 49% +4  2 - 2 +7 +16 B+ A+ D+ -9 D- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 187 Idaho L 64 - 78 50% -4  2 - 3 -16 -13 F C+ C -2 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 28 243 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 61% -18  2 - 4 -37 -32 F D F -3 C F B-
 Thu, Dec 4 320 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 85% +7  3 - 4 1 - 0 +8 +4 B- B- C +3 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 115 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 22% +0  3 - 5 1 - 1 -8 +6 C+ D- A+ -14 C- F D
 Wed, Dec 10 145 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 50% +4  4 - 5 +0 +16 A+ F+ B+ -16 F B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 285 @Delaware W 88 - 66 58% +19  5 - 5 +18 +17 A+ C C+ +1 B- C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 22 258 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 74% +4  6 - 5 +3 +8 A- F A- -6 C A- F
 Sat, Dec 27 82 @Stanford L 80 - 88 14% -1  6 - 6 +2 +7 B+ F C -4 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 184 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 37% -6  6 - 7 1 - 2 -7 +1 C- D+ D -7 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 134 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 49% +6  7 - 7 2 - 2 +7 -5 D B- F+ +12 A+ A- C
 Thu, Jan 8 263 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 75% -3  8 - 7 3 - 2 -4 +3 A C+ C- -8 C C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 217 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 44% +1  8 - 8 3 - 3 -7 -1 C- D+ B- -6 D C D
 Thu, Jan 15 142 @UC San Diego W 84 - 79 28% +2  9 - 8 4 - 3 +9 +12 C A A+ -3 A D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 250 Long Beach St. L 80 - 87 72% -0  9 - 9 4 - 4 -15 -6 F A- D+ -8 D- B- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 99 @Hawaii L 68 - 89 18% -9  9 - 10 4 - 5 -13 -4 C D- C- -7 F+ A B
 Thu, Jan 29 184 UC Davis W 94 - 78 60% +4  10 - 10 5 - 5 +12 +7 A+ F+ B +3 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 142 UC San Diego W 81 - 64 50% +7  11 - 10 6 - 5 +15 +3 B- B+ F +11 A+ C+ C-
 Thu, Feb 5 263 @Cal Poly W 97 - 96 54% +5  12 - 10 7 - 5 -2 +9 B+ B C -11 F C- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 291 UC Riverside W 83 - 74 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 99 Hawaii L 77 - 81 36%
 Thu, Feb 19 134 @UC Santa Barbara L 76 - 82 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 250 @Long Beach St. W 81 - 80 50%
 Thu, Feb 26 115 UC Irvine L 75 - 77 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 291 @UC Riverside W 80 - 77 58%
 Thu, Mar 5 320 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 84 - 79 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 217 Cal St. Fullerton W 88 - 84 66%
Totals 16 - 14 11 - 9 -2 -1 C C C- -1 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 0.6 1.6 1st
2nd 0.3 2.6 2.7 0.3 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 8.8 9.0 1.6 0.0 20.7 3rd
4th 1.1 10.4 12.0 2.3 0.0 25.8 4th
5th 0.7 7.6 11.1 2.8 0.1 22.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 8.3 2.4 0.1 14.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.2 1.7 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 2.6 8.8 18.8 25.3 23.9 14.2 5.2 0.9 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 71.1% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1
14-6 15.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.9% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-6 5.2% 12.0% 12.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.5
13-7 14.2% 7.8% 7.8% 14.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 13.1
12-8 23.9% 5.1% 5.1% 14.3 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 22.7
11-9 25.3% 2.5% 2.5% 14.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 24.6
10-10 18.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 18.6
9-11 8.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.1 0.1 0.0 8.7
8-12 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 14.2 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 0.4%