California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 #141
Expected Predictive Rating +4.9 #94
Pace 65.1 #280
Improvement -0.6 #223

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #191 D+ C+ C C B-
Defense #108 B- B D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.03 #326 +1.7 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #227 0.74 #204 -1.2 #240
Three Pointers 35% #304 0.98 #232 -3.6 #304
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #271 -3.1 #270
Freethrows 0.30 #178 72% #194 0.22 #176
Second Chance 37.7% #17 0.94 #316 0.35 #105
Turnovers 16.9% #215
Total Offense -1.0 #191

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.06 #67 +0.4 #159
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #127 0.78 #223 -0.8 #242
Three Pointers 37% #293 0.97 #122 +3.0 #70
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #97 +2.6 #97
Freethrows 0.32 #242 74% #257 0.24 #263
Second Chance 25.8% #36 0.97 #84 0.25 #34
Turnovers 14.6% #292
Total Defense +2.1 #108

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #61 0.1% #169
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #313 -5.1% #81
Possession Length 18.5 #289 17.6 #221
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #307 0.17 #169
Improvement -1.0 #239 +0.4 #163

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 26.0% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 98.8% 93.7%
Conference Champion 24.7% 40.1% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.4% 26.0% 18.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 36 - 9
Quad 416 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 301 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 87% +8  1 - 0 +1 +10 A- D A+ -10 D+ C B
 Fri, Nov 7 114 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 32% +3  2 - 0 +14 +2 C C+ F +12 A- A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 359 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 95% +6  3 - 0 -8 -3 F D A -4 D A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 287 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 85% +15  4 - 0 +13 -3 F+ C D+ +14 A- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 294 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 86% +13  5 - 0 +3 +2 A D F +2 C A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 202 San Diego W 76 - 61 64% +2  6 - 0 +13 -0 D A+ F +12 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 182 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 50% +2  7 - 0 +7 +5 B- F+ A +2 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 85 @Colorado L 70 - 78 21% +2  7 - 1 +2 +2 D- C- C -0 B C- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 14 BYU L 60 - 91 6% -18  7 - 2 -12 -4 D- D D- -8 D+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 104 @Utah L 85 - 91 26% -4  7 - 3 +2 +12 D A+ D+ -10 B- D- D+
 Fri, Dec 12 250 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 62% +5  8 - 3 +3 +11 B- A F -8 C- D D
 Tue, Dec 16 256 Southern W 75 - 67 82% +4  9 - 3 -0 +1 D- D- B+ -1 B- C B
 Sat, Dec 20 285 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 85% +2  10 - 3 -3 -2 F A+ D- -1 A- F C
 Mon, Dec 29 101 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 26% -0  10 - 4 0 - 1 +1 -2 A+ F F +3 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 153 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 42% -4  10 - 5 0 - 2 -9 -12 D+ D F +2 A B- F+
 Sat, Jan 3 212 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 55% -1  10 - 6 0 - 3 -5 -1 C A+ F -4 D- A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 219 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 77% +7  11 - 6 1 - 3 +6 +18 D A+ A -11 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 292 Southern Utah W 58 - 55 86% +6  12 - 6 2 - 3 -7 -10 F B+ A- +3 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 15 259 @Abilene Christian W 74 - 58 64% +13  13 - 6 3 - 3 +13 +9 D+ C A +6 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 219 Utah Tech W 73 - 64 77% +5  14 - 6 4 - 3 +3 +6 D- A+ A -3 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 101 Utah Valley W 78 - 71 OT 48% +0  15 - 6 5 - 3 +9 +1 B- D+ D +7 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 153 @Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 42%
 Thu, Feb 5 212 Tarleton St. W 76 - 69 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 259 Abilene Christian W 73 - 63 82%
 Thu, Feb 12 292 @Southern Utah W 75 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 219 @Utah Tech W 71 - 69 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 101 @Utah Valley L 67 - 74 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 153 Texas Arlington W 68 - 64 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 212 Tarleton St. W 76 - 69 74%
 Thu, Mar 5 259 Abilene Christian W 73 - 63 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 292 @Southern Utah W 75 - 70 69%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +1 -1 D+ C+ C +2 B- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 5.2 11.1 6.5 1.3 24.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.9 11.5 16.3 6.4 0.4 37.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.4 10.7 10.2 3.1 0.1 29.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 3.2 1.5 0.3 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 7.8 15.2 22.5 24.5 17.5 6.9 1.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.3    1.3
14-4 93.8% 6.5    5.1 1.4
13-5 63.2% 11.1    5.2 5.1 0.7
12-6 21.3% 5.2    1.1 2.7 1.4 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.7% 24.7 12.8 9.4 2.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.3% 33.3% 33.3% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.9
14-4 6.9% 38.3% 38.3% 12.6 1.0 1.6 0.1 4.3
13-5 17.5% 29.0% 29.0% 13.0 0.0 1.0 3.3 0.8 0.0 12.4
12-6 24.5% 25.5% 25.5% 13.2 0.5 4.0 1.7 0.0 18.3
11-7 22.5% 17.1% 17.1% 13.5 0.2 1.9 1.6 0.2 18.7
10-8 15.2% 13.3% 13.3% 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 13.2
9-9 7.8% 9.8% 9.8% 14.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 7.1
8-10 3.2% 9.3% 9.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9
7-11 0.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 13.2 78.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.1 6.8 78.4 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%