California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 138
Results Rating +4.9 97
Pace 65.1 270
Improvement -1.7 250

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 232 D C+ C- C B-
Defense B- 80 B- B+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 26 F+ 48% 359 -0.5 200
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 173 C 38% 174 -0.6 214
Three Pointers 36% 283 C- 33% 226 -3.0 285
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 93 D- -4.7 329
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 309
Second Chance B+ 37.5% 22 D- 0.88 348 C+ 0.33 132
Turnovers C- 17.5% 228
Freethrows C 0.30 200 C 72% 198 C 0.22 195
Total Offense C- -2.2 232

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 35% 343 C+ 10.5% 148
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 321 B- 3.9% 103
Three Pointers D+ 79% 292 F+ 1.9% 344
Total F+ 44% 354 C- 6.2% 244

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 105 B 53% 58 -0.4 158
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 105 C 38% 195 +0.8 248
Three Pointers 36% 316 B- 32% 91 -3.6 41
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 158 B -3.2 60
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 73
Second Chance B+ 25.9% 35 B 0.92 45 B+ 0.24 28
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 296
Freethrows C- 0.32 229 C- 73% 217 C- 0.23 231
Total Defense B- +3.5 80

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 43% 68 C- 9.7% 222
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 54 F+ 1.0% 354
Three Pointers C+ 82% 112 D+ 0.4% 280
Total B 48% 40 D+ 4.4% 276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 292 17.2 163
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 308 0.16 145
Improvement -3.6 #332 +1.9 #85

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 164 139 118
Results Rating Rank 126 105 70
Conference Record 10 - 8 12 - 6 13 - 5
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21% 23% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 21% 29% 5%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round21% 23% 17%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 37 - 9
Quad 416 - 123 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 297 South Carolina Upstate W 87 - 75 87% +8  95% 1 - 0 C +1 B +7 A+ F+ A+ D -6 D+ C B-
 Fri, Nov 7 121 @UC Irvine W 69 - 61 33% +3  55% 2 - 0 B+ +14 C -0 C C+ F A+ +14 A A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 362 Western Illinois W 69 - 59 97% +6  88% 3 - 0 D -11 D- -8 F D- A C- -2 D+ A F
 Tue, Nov 18 283 UC Riverside W 80 - 57 85% +15  95% 4 - 0 B+ +13 D -5 F+ C C- A+ +17 A C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 296 Grambling St. W 72 - 59 87% +13  97% 5 - 0 C+ +2 C +1 A+ D+ F B- +2 C- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 225 San Diego W 76 - 61 69% +2  54% 6 - 0 B +11 D+ -3 D- A+ F A+ +14 B+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 157 @Oregon St. W 75 - 69 44% +2  50% 7 - 0 B +9 B- +4 B+ F A B +5 D+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 66 @Colorado L 70 - 78 17% +2  64% 7 - 1 C+ +4 C +1 D- C C+ B- +3 B C- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 20 BYU L 60 - 91 7% -18  1% 7 - 2 D- -13 F+ -9 F D D- D+ -5 C+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 99 @Utah L 85 - 91 26% -4  1% 7 - 3 C+ +2 A +11 D- A+ D+ F+ -9 C+ D- D-
 Fri, Dec 12 187 @Eastern Washington W 88 - 83 50% +5  71% 8 - 3 B- +6 A- +10 B+ A+ F D+ -4 C- D D-
 Tue, Dec 16 260 Southern W 75 - 67 82% +4  89% 9 - 3 C -1 D+ -3 D- D- B+ B- +3 B C- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 276 Sacramento St. W 74 - 67 84% +2  62% 10 - 3 C- -2 D -5 F A+ D- B- +3 A F C+
 Mon, Dec 29 95 @Utah Valley L 66 - 73 23% -0  45% 10 - 4 0 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -4 A+ F F B+ +6 D A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 180 @Texas Arlington L 51 - 63 48% -4  3% 10 - 5 0 - 2 D -10 F -15 D F+ F B +3 A C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 228 @Tarleton St. L 76 - 81 OT 58% -1  25% 10 - 6 0 - 3 D+ -6 C- -2 B B- F D+ -4 F+ A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 189 Utah Tech W 84 - 72 72% +7  89% 11 - 6 1 - 3 B- +7 A+ +16 D+ A+ A D- -7 D A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 277 Southern Utah W 58 - 55 84% +6  95% 12 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -6 F -14 F A- A- A- +8 A+ F C
 Thu, Jan 15 245 @Abilene Christian W 74 - 58 61% +13  85% 13 - 6 3 - 3 A- +15 B+ +8 D C A+ A- +8 B- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 189 Utah Tech W 73 - 64 72% +5  81% 14 - 6 4 - 3 C+ +4 B- +4 D- A+ A C+ +1 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 95 Utah Valley W 78 - 71 OT 44% +0  54% 15 - 6 5 - 3 B +10 C- -0 B- D+ D+ A +10 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 180 @Texas Arlington W 87 - 77 OT 48% +5  95% 16 - 6 6 - 3 B+ +12 B +7 C+ B A- B +4 B A F+
 Thu, Feb 5 228 Tarleton St. W 56 - 55 78% -1  31% 17 - 6 7 - 3 D+ -6 F -16 F C- D+ A +11 C+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 245 Abilene Christian W 65 - 63 80% +4  82% 18 - 6 8 - 3 D+ -5 F+ -9 F F A B- +3 A A D-
 Thu, Feb 12 277 @Southern Utah W 83 - 66 68% +8  95% 19 - 6 9 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +9 C- A+ B- B+ +5 C A+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 189 @Utah Tech L 65 - 70 50% -1  34% 19 - 7 9 - 4 C- -4 D -5 F C- A+ C+ +1 C- B+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 95 @Utah Valley L 46 - 65 23% -10  0% 19 - 8 9 - 5 D -10 F -20 F F F A +9 B+ A D
 Thu, Feb 26 180 Texas Arlington W 67 - 61 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 228 Tarleton St. W 73 - 65 78%
 Thu, Mar 5 245 Abilene Christian W 70 - 61 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 277 @Southern Utah W 75 - 70 68%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +1 C- -2 A D- B- B- +3 C- C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- F+ C C- D- 45% 38% 36% B- D B+ D- C+ C- C C C B- B C B- B 41% 23% 36% C B- B+ B B+ D+ C- C- C-
1.05 48% 38% 33% -5 +1 0.94 37% 0.9 .33 17% .30 72% .22 1.04 53% 38% 32% -3 0 0.96 26% 0.9 .24 15% .32 73% .22
Nov
3		 South Carolina Upstate B B- A+ A- A+ 58% 13% 28% A- A+ B+ F F+ A+ B- F D+ D D D A D+ 44% 25% 31% C D+ B+ F C B- F C+ F
1.23 61% 71% 40% +9 +2 1.25 37% 0.7 .26 10% .33 57% .19 1.06 62% 42% 27% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.1 .27 20% .51 69% .35
Nov
7		 UC Irvine C F A+ A- C- 48% 17% 35% A- C A+ F C+ F B- D- C A+ A+ A+ F A 40% 36% 25% B+ A A A+ A+ F+ F A+ C-
0.96 32% 56% 39% -7 +1 0.90 48% 0.7 .33 24% .28 67% .18 0.85 33% 26% 46% -10 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .17 14% .37 57% .21
Nov
14		 Western Illinois D- F F F F 42% 8% 50% B- F A F D- A B A A- C- C+ F A+ C- 51% 28% 21% F+ D+ A+ D+ A F F D- F
1.10 50% 25% 25% -11 +2 0.83 46% 0.7 .30 10% .35 80% .28 0.94 50% 46% 20% -6 0 0.89 12% 1.0 .12 13% .38 71% .27
Nov
18		 UC Riverside D F A+ F F 64% 20% 16% B+ F+ A+ F C C- B- D- C A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% C- A D A C+ A+ A- B A-
1.05 47% 55% 22% -7 +2 0.93 47% 0.6 .29 16% .36 65% .23 0.75 42% 45% 24% -11 0 0.81 31% 0.7 .21 29% .24 69% .17
Nov
21		 Grambling St. C B+ A+ B+ A 61% 7% 32% A A+ C+ F D+ F C+ D+ C B- D F+ A+ C 40% 18% 43% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ C+ F F F
1.12 68% 67% 38% +10 +3 1.29 35% 0.9 .30 28% .37 71% .26 0.91 63% 43% 24% -4 +1 0.95 17% 0.0 .00 22% .46 91% .42
Nov
25		 San Diego D+ F F C+ F 42% 12% 47% B D- C+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ A+ F B A+ A 46% 12% 42% F B+ A+ F A+ C- C+ A+ B+
1.07 50% 20% 35% -5 +1 0.95 35% 1.5 .55 24% .52 79% .41 0.86 75% 33% 14% -6 +2 0.94 3% 4.0 .13 17% .22 62% .14
Nov
29		 Oregon St. B- B- F A B 54% 17% 29% B B+ D F F A C F D+ B A A F D+ 38% 15% 47% D+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C B+ F C+
1.11 61% 22% 40% +1 +2 1.08 27% 0.7 .19 10% .33 65% .22 1.03 44% 29% 45% +1 +1 1.06 14% 1.0 .14 18% .31 88% .27
Dec
1		 Colorado C D+ F F F 64% 13% 23% A+ D- B+ F C C+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ D F B 46% 24% 30% C+ B D C+ C- C+ F D+ F
1.03 53% 29% 17% -10 +3 0.87 33% 0.9 .28 16% .42 75% .32 1.15 48% 45% 43% +1 0 1.04 36% 0.9 .33 15% .53 77% .41
Dec
3		 BYU F+ F F C- F 46% 17% 37% A+ F A F D D- A+ B A+ D+ C- D C B- 38% 20% 42% D C+ D- F F C- A D A
0.87 38% 11% 32% -15 +1 0.73 34% 0.6 .22 20% .34 74% .25 1.31 67% 45% 35% +5 0 1.13 42% 1.6 .68 13% .23 79% .18
Dec
6		 Utah A C+ F F+ D- 42% 25% 34% C- D- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ D- B- F+ B- F B- C+ 41% 22% 37% B- C+ B- F D- D- F D F
1.20 59% 23% 28% -6 0 0.89 53% 1.3 .72 17% .32 63% .20 1.29 55% 55% 33% +2 0 1.06 29% 1.3 .38 13% .60 78% .47
Dec
12		 Eastern Washington A- B- A+ D B+ 53% 18% 29% B- B+ A+ D- A+ F A+ A- A+ D+ A- D- F C 56% 21% 23% F+ C- D+ D+ D D- F A F
1.25 63% 75% 31% +8 +1 1.20 54% 1.0 .54 21% .50 82% .41 1.18 48% 45% 50% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 16% .45 67% .30
Dec
16		 Southern D+ C+ C+ F+ F+ 25% 10% 65% B- D- C+ F D- B+ A B+ A+ B- A+ A D B+ 38% 24% 38% D B D+ C C- B+ D D- D-
1.08 62% 40% 30% -3 0 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 16% .45 81% .36 0.97 42% 25% 37% -8 0 0.86 32% 1.0 .32 20% .36 75% .27
Dec
20		 Sacramento St. D F A- D F 61% 9% 30% A- F A- A- A+ D- A+ D+ A+ B- A+ F A+ A 22% 35% 44% A A F F F C+ A+ F+ A+
1.10 33% 50% 31% -16 +3 0.77 43% 1.3 .55 19% .55 70% .38 0.99 17% 58% 21% -11 -3 0.75 38% 1.4 .51 16% .11 83% .09
Dec
29		 Utah Valley D+ A A+ D A+ 53% 23% 25% B- A+ C- F F F A A+ A+ B+ D- D+ B D 57% 19% 24% C D A+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ A-
0.94 67% 67% 30% +9 +1 1.23 28% 0.0 .00 33% .42 85% .36 1.04 68% 40% 31% +5 +2 1.15 9% 0.7 .06 11% .32 45% .14
Jan
1		 Texas Arlington F C D+ F D+ 33% 40% 28% F D D+ F F+ F F+ C D- B A A+ B+ A 38% 29% 33% A A C+ C+ C+ F F F F
0.80 57% 35% 25% -5 -3 0.86 25% 0.9 .21 27% .30 71% .21 0.99 44% 25% 29% -12 -1 0.76 34% 0.9 .31 16% .43 87% .37
Jan
3		 Tarleton St. C- B A B- B- 46% 13% 41% B+ B B+ D+ B- F D C- D D+ F+ B+ F F 33% 41% 26% A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ C- F C+ F
1.02 67% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 28% .34 72% .24 1.09 67% 32% 50% +6 -3 1.09 21% 0.6 .12 19% .64 74% .48
Jan
8		 Utah Tech A+ F B+ C+ D 46% 15% 39% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ D- D B F D 49% 19% 32% D+ D C A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
1.35 48% 43% 33% -4 +1 0.96 52% 1.4 .73 11% .47 77% .36 1.15 65% 33% 40% +5 +1 1.15 29% 0.4 .13 14% .34 78% .26
Jan
10		 Southern Utah F F F F F 39% 27% 35% D F A+ C- A- A- A F B- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% D+ A+ F+ F F C C D C
0.95 37% 23% 18% -21 -1 0.59 44% 1.0 .42 10% .35 58% .20 0.90 42% 13% 22% -18 +1 0.67 36% 1.3 .46 20% .25 75% .18
Jan
15		 Abilene Christian B+ C- F A+ D- 54% 19% 27% C+ D A- F C A+ D- A+ C+ A- B+ B- C B 52% 27% 20% D+ B- A+ A+ A+ F F B- F
1.16 58% 11% 46% 0 +1 1.04 36% 0.8 .30 16% .39 86% .33 0.91 48% 33% 33% -7 0 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 13% .45 68% .30
Jan
21		 Utah Tech B- F D+ C- D- 49% 18% 33% C+ D- B- A+ A+ A A F C+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ 36% 28% 36% A- A+ C- F F+ F B+ F C-
1.18 50% 33% 31% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.4 .49 11% .38 57% .22 1.03 37% 20% 42% -8 -1 0.83 31% 1.2 .36 10% .18 100% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Utah Valley C- D+ F+ A+ B- 50% 22% 28% B- B- C- D D+ D+ A+ C- A+ A B+ F A+ A+ 58% 11% 30% D A+ A A+ A+ D F D F
1.03 52% 30% 46% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 22% .53 71% .37 0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +3 0.83 30% 0.7 .21 18% .52 72% .37
Jan
31		 Texas Arlington B C- B- C+ B- 36% 34% 30% D C+ C- A+ B A- A+ D+ A+ B A F+ B+ B- 32% 25% 42% A B C+ A+ A F+ B- F C-
1.11 56% 41% 33% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.4 .38 13% .53 69% .37 0.99 42% 47% 28% -7 -1 0.86 34% 0.7 .23 17% .32 81% .26
Feb
5		 Tarleton St. F F A F F 43% 27% 30% D+ F A+ F C- D+ B- A B+ A F C- A+ C 45% 39% 16% A- C+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A+
0.85 26% 50% 23% -15 -1 0.70 47% 0.8 .35 24% .40 80% .32 0.84 70% 40% 0% -2 -2 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 20% .11 83% .09
Feb
7		 Abilene Christian F+ F F A+ F 51% 15% 33% B- F C+ F F A A+ C- A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 49% 22% 29% D A C A+ A D- F C+ F
0.96 35% 17% 54% -5 +2 0.95 30% 0.3 .10 18% .61 71% .43 0.93 42% 45% 21% -12 +1 0.80 33% 0.5 .16 18% .47 69% .32
Feb
12		 Southern Utah B+ F A+ B C 40% 29% 31% D C- B+ A+ A+ B- F B+ F B+ C+ A F C 46% 24% 30% C C A A+ A+ F F A+ C
1.23 43% 59% 39% +3 -1 1.05 37% 1.4 .51 12% .13 75% .10 0.98 57% 25% 40% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .34 55% .18
Feb
14		 Utah Tech D F C+ D F 28% 15% 57% D+ F B+ F C- A+ A F C+ C+ A C F C- 50% 15% 35% F+ C- B+ A- B+ F F+ A- D+
1.01 20% 38% 29% -15 0 0.72 39% 0.8 .30 8% .37 59% .22 1.09 46% 38% 50% +2 +2 1.10 24% 0.8 .19 11% .30 65% .19
Feb
19		 Utah Valley F F F F F 50% 17% 33% B F B+ F F F F B+ F A C+ A B B+ 50% 23% 27% A- B+ D+ A+ A D C- C C-
0.70 39% 25% 27% -15 +1 0.74 37% 0.5 .17 31% .20 78% .15 0.99 58% 27% 31% -4 +1 0.96 40% 0.7 .29 18% .30 69% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.4 17.0 21.5 1st
2nd 0.6 10.0 32.9 13.4 56.9 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.2 12.0 3.8 21.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.7 5.8 22.2 41.0 30.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 55.8% 17.0    3.0 11.0 3.0
12-6 10.6% 4.4    0.1 1.8 2.4
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 3.1 12.8 5.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 30.4% 28.0% 28.0% 12.7 0.0 3.3 4.7 0.5 0.0 21.9
12-6 41.0% 20.9% 20.9% 13.1 1.3 5.5 1.7 0.0 32.4
11-7 22.2% 14.3% 14.3% 13.3 0.2 1.8 1.1 0.1 19.0
10-8 5.8% 12.9% 12.9% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.0
9-9 0.7% 8.2% 8.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 13.0 79.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.5% 100.0% 12.7 0.5 38.6 55.5 5.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.1%
Lose Out 0.3%