California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#218
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#67
Pace71.5#115
Improvement-0.3#203

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#142
First Shot+2.4#108
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#272
Layup/Dunks+4.5#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#110
Freethrows+0.8#122
Improvement-1.1#293

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#281
First Shot-2.0#247
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#257
Layups/Dunks-5.1#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#111
Freethrows+0.3#171
Improvement+0.8#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.5
.500 or above 80.4% 84.7% 63.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.1% 65.6% 52.7%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.8% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 413 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 95-66 98%     1 - 0 +1.4 -2.6 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2021 249   Jackson St. W 77-64 70%     2 - 0 +5.3 +10.5 -4.1
  Nov 18, 2021 294   San Jose St. W 67-66 77%     3 - 0 -9.2 -8.9 -0.2
  Nov 21, 2021 179   Northern Colorado W 74-70 55%     4 - 0 +0.3 -1.9 +2.2
  Nov 24, 2021 11   @ Texas L 44-68 4%     4 - 1 -5.3 -13.9 +5.3
  Dec 02, 2021 314   Cal Poly W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 07, 2021 329   North Dakota W 81-69 86%    
  Dec 12, 2021 138   @ UC Riverside L 65-72 25%    
  Dec 18, 2021 5   @ Arizona L 67-90 1%    
  Dec 21, 2021 304   Southeast Missouri St. W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 01, 2022 176   Seattle W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 08, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 12, 2022 308   Dixie St. W 85-76 79%    
  Jan 15, 2022 151   Utah Valley L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 20, 2022 153   @ Tarleton St. L 62-68 28%    
  Jan 22, 2022 143   @ Abilene Christian L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 26, 2022 217   Sam Houston St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 158   Stephen F. Austin W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 03, 2022 94   @ New Mexico St. L 65-76 15%    
  Feb 05, 2022 110   @ Grand Canyon L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 10, 2022 320   Lamar W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 284   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 16, 2022 110   Grand Canyon L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 19, 2022 176   @ Seattle L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 24, 2022 308   @ Dixie St. W 82-79 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 151   @ Utah Valley L 69-75 30%    
  Mar 02, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 84-65 95%    
  Mar 05, 2022 320   @ Lamar W 77-74 61%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.5 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.8 3.9 0.8 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.5 4.0 5.3 1.3 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 6.0 2.2 0.1 11.8 6th
7th 0.4 3.1 6.1 3.3 0.3 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.9 3.8 0.5 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 2.8 2.1 0.4 7.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.9 6.7 10.2 13.0 14.2 14.5 12.6 9.6 6.3 3.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 91.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 63.8% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.1
14-4 30.4% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.3
13-5 8.2% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.1
16-2 0.6% 0.6
15-3 1.5% 3.3% 3.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 1.5
14-4 3.7% 2.5% 2.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
13-5 6.3% 2.5% 2.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.2
12-6 9.6% 1.3% 1.3% 14.6 0.1 0.1 9.5
11-7 12.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 12.6
10-8 14.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.5
9-9 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 14.1
8-10 13.0% 13.0
7-11 10.2% 10.2
6-12 6.7% 6.7
5-13 3.9% 3.9
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 99.5 0.0%