California Baptist
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#185
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#200
Pace63.5#318
Improvement+1.0#124

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#161
First Shot+1.0#148
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#210
Layup/Dunks+7.3#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#314
Freethrows+0.0#184
Improvement-1.4#283

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#227
First Shot+0.5#159
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#315
Layups/Dunks-1.8#237
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#153
Freethrows+2.3#57
Improvement+2.4#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 11.9% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 53.9% 77.7% 52.2%
.500 or above in Conference 60.3% 72.3% 59.5%
Conference Champion 7.9% 14.7% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 2.9% 5.6%
First Four0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round7.8% 11.8% 7.5%
Second Round0.5% 1.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 6.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 411 - 416 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 314   Incarnate Word W 83-78 83%     1 - 0 -6.4 +3.7 -9.9
  Nov 09, 2024 146   Kennesaw St. W 88-84 54%     2 - 0 +1.8 +8.6 -7.0
  Nov 12, 2024 175   UC Riverside L 69-70 60%     2 - 1 -4.8 -1.9 -3.0
  Nov 15, 2024 342   LIU Brooklyn W 90-77 89%     3 - 1 -1.5 +14.9 -15.8
  Nov 20, 2024 180   Northern Colorado L 68-79 61%     3 - 2 -15.0 -11.8 -2.8
  Nov 23, 2024 239   Eastern Washington W 79-68 72%     4 - 2 +3.8 +3.3 +1.2
  Nov 26, 2024 62   SMU L 77-79 17%     4 - 3 +7.2 +12.4 -5.4
  Nov 27, 2024 255   Fresno St. W 86-81 2OT 65%     5 - 3 -0.2 -2.0 +0.9
  Dec 01, 2024 83   @ Central Florida L 59-74 16%     5 - 4 -5.5 -7.9 +2.3
  Dec 11, 2024 37   @ San Diego St. L 59-75 6%    
  Dec 16, 2024 128   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-73 29%    
  Dec 21, 2024 255   @ Fresno St. W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 28, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 74-64 83%    
  Dec 30, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 04, 2025 123   Seattle L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 184   @ Utah Valley L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 323   @ Tarleton St. W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 178   @ Abilene Christian L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 23, 2025 184   Utah Valley W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 199   @ Southern Utah L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 30, 2025 178   Abilene Christian W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 06, 2025 199   Southern Utah W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 100   Grand Canyon L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 161   @ Texas Arlington L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 291   Utah Tech W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 100   @ Grand Canyon L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 27, 2025 123   @ Seattle L 66-72 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 291   @ Utah Tech W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 323   Tarleton St. W 73-62 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 161   Texas Arlington W 76-74 57%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.1 6.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.3 6.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.2 6.7 2.0 0.1 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.5 6.2 2.1 0.1 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.9 1.6 0.1 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.8 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.2 7.7 10.9 13.9 15.1 14.7 12.3 8.8 5.4 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 97.4% 1.1    1.0 0.1
13-3 81.6% 2.2    1.5 0.7 0.0
12-4 47.3% 2.5    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
11-5 16.7% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 42.7% 42.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-2 1.2% 32.7% 32.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-3 2.7% 32.2% 32.2% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.8
12-4 5.4% 23.2% 23.2% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.1
11-5 8.8% 17.9% 17.9% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 7.2
10-6 12.3% 11.6% 11.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 10.9
9-7 14.7% 7.0% 7.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 13.6
8-8 15.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 14.4
7-9 13.9% 2.8% 2.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 13.5
6-10 10.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.7
5-11 7.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.6
4-12 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-13 1.9% 1.9
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.6 2.3 0.7 92.1 0.0%