Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.4 44
Results Rating +9.6 58
Pace 69.8 141
Improvement -2.5 280

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 44 B A- B B- F+
Defense B- 76 B- B- C B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 355 A 69% 11 -2.0 253
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 82 A- 46% 16 +6.2 4
Three Pointers 40% 200 B- 36% 104 +0.7 155
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.8 349 A- +6.8 16
1st FG Attempt B 1.12 53
Second Chance A- 38.1% 15 B- 1.10 77 A- 0.42 22
Turnovers B 14.7% 62
Freethrows C+ 0.33 118 C+ 73% 163 B- 0.24 121
Total Offense B+ +7.8 44

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 99 A 5.9% 6
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 77 C- 6.0% 252
Three Pointers C 83% 201 D+ 1.2% 279
Total C 56% 159 B+ 4.1% 28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 25% 363 C- 60% 235 -7.4 9
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 1 D+ 41% 283 +8.0 365
Three Pointers 37% 298 B- 32% 93 -3.3 52
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -3.2 1 C +0.6 202
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 92
Second Chance B- 28.3% 98 B- 0.97 87 B- 0.27 72
Turnovers C 17.2% 159
Freethrows B 0.26 45 D+ 74% 288 B 0.19 61
Total Defense B- +3.6 76

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 183 C 11.2% 159
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 200 A+ 11.6% 5
Three Pointers A- 75% 13 B 1.7% 49
Total B+ 48% 29 B+ 7.9% 38

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.5 90 17.8 267
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 54 0.16 147
Improvement -4.4 #350 +1.9 #78

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 56 47 41
Results Rating Rank 81 58 49
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 7 - 11
Conference Finish 14 13 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 12% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3% 12% 1%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.2
.500 or above 35% 73% 27%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 3% 0% 3%
First Four3% 10% 1%
First Round2% 7% 1%
Second Round1% 3% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Arizona (Home) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 90 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 13
Quad 25 - 38 - 16
Quad 32 - 010 - 16
Quad 45 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 144 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96 - 81 89% +6  57% 1 - 0 B+ +13 A- +10 A+ C- B+ C+ +1 D+ A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 48 Washington W 78 - 69 62% +4  76% 2 - 0 A- +17 B- +5 A- D+ A- A+ +12 A A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 14 228 Tarleton St. W 94 - 81 94% +10  96% 3 - 0 B- +6 A +14 A- A+ B F+ -8 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 63 Creighton W 81 - 74 60% +5  94% 4 - 0 A- +16 A- +11 F+ A+ C+ B +5 C B+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 19 St. John's L 81 - 96 26% -12  0% 4 - 1 C+ +3 A +14 C A A+ F -10 F F C
 Wed, Nov 26 45 San Diego St. W 91 - 81 50% +4  72% 5 - 1 A +21 A+ +24 A+ B- A+ C- -2 D+ A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 276 Sacramento St. W 110 - 88 96% +7  58% 6 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +19 A+ A+ C+ F+ -9 A- F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 105 @Memphis L 71 - 78 66% -2  19% 6 - 2 C +0 C+ +2 D- B B C -1 A- D F
 Wed, Dec 10 303 Norfolk St. W 97 - 67 97% +16  93% 7 - 2 A +19 B+ +9 B B B- A- +7 A A- D-
 Fri, Dec 19 344 Alcorn St. W 113 - 56 99% +29  96% 8 - 2 A+ +41 A+ +18 A+ C- C A+ +17 A+ B- C-
 Sun, Dec 21 260 Southern W 111 - 67 96% +15  87% 9 - 2 A+ +35 A+ +32 A+ A A+ B- +3 A+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 3 50 @TCU L 63 - 69 41% -7  0% 9 - 3 0 - 1 B- +8 C+ +2 F+ B A- B+ +5 A- B B-
 Wed, Jan 7 8 Iowa St. L 60 - 70 27% -3  42% 9 - 4 0 - 2 B- +8 D -5 F A+ B A+ +13 A+ B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 6 Houston L 55 - 77 23% -11  20% 9 - 5 0 - 3 C- -3 D -4 C+ B D- C -1 A- C F+
 Tue, Jan 13 68 @Oklahoma St. W 94 - 79 50% +13  99% 10 - 5 1 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +26 A+ A+ C+ C+ +1 C+ D C
 Fri, Jan 16 21 @Kansas L 62 - 80 19% -11  4% 10 - 6 1 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +2 C B- D+ C -0 C- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 14 Texas Tech L 73 - 92 33% -16  0% 10 - 7 1 - 5 C- -3 B +7 B+ A+ C+ F -11 F A+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 50 TCU L 90 - 97 63% -4  24% 10 - 8 1 - 6 C +1 A- +10 A+ A D F+ -8 D+ A D+
 Wed, Jan 28 43 @Cincinnati L 57 - 67 35% -9  0% 10 - 9 1 - 7 B- +5 D -5 D+ C- A A +10 A B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 55 @West Virginia W 63 - 53 44% +5  92% 11 - 9 2 - 7 A+ +23 B+ +8 A- A F A+ +17 A+ B+ A
 Wed, Feb 4 66 Colorado W 86 - 67 71% +17  96% 12 - 9 3 - 7 A+ +25 A +14 A A+ A- A +11 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 8 @Iowa St. L 69 - 72 12% -4  13% 12 - 10 3 - 8 A +21 A +14 C A+ A+ B+ +6 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Feb 10 20 BYU L 94 - 99 36% -2  39% 12 - 11 3 - 9 B +10 A+ +18 A+ A- C- F+ -8 C- C- F
 Sat, Feb 14 11 Louisville L 71 - 82 23% -5  24% 12 - 12 B +8 B +6 C+ D+ A B- +2 C- D- A
 Tue, Feb 17 96 @Kansas St. L 74 - 90 60% -10  0% 12 - 13 3 - 10 D+ -7 D- -8 F B F B- +3 D C A+
 Sat, Feb 21 61 Arizona St. W 73 - 68 70% -1  36% 13 - 13 4 - 10 B +11 B- +5 A+ F C+ B+ +6 B+ D- B-
 Tue, Feb 24 3 Arizona L 75 - 85 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 51 @Central Florida L 81 - 83 42%
 Wed, Mar 4 6 @Houston L 65 - 79 9%
 Sat, Mar 7 99 Utah W 83 - 74 81%
Totals 14 - 16 5 - 13 +11 B+ +8 A+ A- F+ B- +4 B- C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ A A- B- A- 30% 47% 40% F+ B A- B- A- B C+ C+ B- B- C- D+ B- C 25% 39% 37% A+ B- B- B- B- C B D+ B
1.20 69% 46% 36% +7 -2 1.12 38% 1.1 .42 15% .33 73% .24 1.03 60% 41% 32% +1 -3 0.97 28% 1.0 .27 17% .26 74% .24
Nov
3		 UT Rio Grande Valley A- A+ C+ A+ A+ 20% 33% 47% F A+ C+ D+ C- B+ A+ D- A C+ F D D- F 19% 37% 44% A+ D+ A+ F A+ D+ A- F B-
1.24 100% 39% 42% +15 -3 1.25 33% 0.8 .25 14% .48 66% .31 1.04 82% 41% 38% +8 -4 1.12 6% 2.5 .16 15% .17 91% .15
Nov
9		 Washington B- A+ A+ D- A+ 16% 43% 41% F A- D C D+ A- A+ C A+ A+ C- F+ A+ B 15% 56% 30% A+ A D+ A+ A+ B- B A+ A-
1.09 88% 50% 29% +6 -5 1.06 21% 1.0 .21 13% .46 69% .32 0.97 63% 50% 19% +1 -6 0.91 38% 0.6 .24 17% .25 67% .17
Nov
14		 Tarleton St. A A A+ A- A+ 15% 33% 52% F A- B- A+ A+ B D A+ C+ F+ F F C F 10% 71% 18% A+ F F A+ F A+ B+ F C+
1.29 71% 63% 40% +15 -3 1.25 36% 1.9 .68 21% .34 85% .29 1.11 100% 54% 33% +16 -9 1.16 60% 0.8 .47 29% .27 86% .23
Nov
24		 Creighton A- F D+ B- F+ 42% 33% 25% C- F+ A+ A A+ C+ A- B+ A- B B+ D+ F+ C+ 38% 13% 48% D C B- A- B+ A A F B
1.20 39% 33% 36% -9 -1 0.82 52% 1.2 .64 15% .28 75% .21 1.09 55% 43% 40% +4 +1 1.12 26% 0.9 .23 19% .18 90% .16
Nov
25		 St. John's A F+ B D C- 42% 22% 36% C+ C A+ F+ A A+ C A+ B+ F D+ C+ F F 48% 15% 37% C- F A+ F F C B B+ B+
1.13 43% 42% 30% -7 0 0.87 51% 0.8 .39 15% .28 88% .25 1.34 62% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.9 .55 14% .36 68% .24
Nov
26		 San Diego St. A+ A+ A+ B A+ 43% 12% 45% A- A+ B- B- B- A+ A+ C A+ C- F+ B- D- D+ 31% 27% 42% C+ D+ A+ B A+ D B- D- C+
1.29 71% 50% 36% +9 +1 1.22 30% 1.0 .30 13% .49 73% .36 1.15 71% 33% 39% +6 -1 1.11 19% 1.0 .19 14% .28 82% .23
Dec
2		 Sacramento St. A+ A+ A+ F A+ 33% 35% 33% F A+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ B A+ F+ F B+ B+ B- 8% 45% 47% A+ A- F F F B- F F F
1.45 100% 65% 25% +19 -2 1.35 61% 1.4 .82 16% .58 76% .44 1.16 75% 30% 29% -5 -5 0.80 45% 1.4 .62 17% .48 87% .41
Dec
6		 Memphis C+ D+ F D D- 26% 26% 48% D D- A D+ B B A D B+ C B- D A+ A 44% 31% 25% B- A- D C- D F F D F
1.00 54% 23% 29% -8 -2 0.82 42% 0.8 .35 18% .43 68% .29 1.10 54% 41% 14% -8 -1 0.84 41% 1.2 .48 13% .40 76% .31
Dec
10		 Norfolk St. B+ A+ D+ A A 29% 37% 34% F B B C+ B B- D A+ C A- F C A+ C 8% 72% 21% A+ A A- B A- D- F+ D+ F+
1.27 88% 36% 40% +11 -3 1.19 38% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .26 0.88 100% 37% 18% -3 -9 0.79 24% 0.9 .21 16% .41 69% .28
Dec
19		 Alcorn St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 29% 35% F A+ A F C- C B- A+ A A+ F A+ F+ A 10% 65% 25% A+ A+ C- A B- C- A+ F A
1.45 90% 63% 47% +26 -1 1.51 48% 0.9 .43 18% .36 87% .31 0.72 83% 15% 40% -10 -8 0.67 26% 0.7 .19 18% .11 86% .09
Dec
21		 Southern A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 19% 35% 46% F A+ A C+ A A+ B- C+ B B- F B- A+ B 7% 61% 31% A+ A+ C+ F F F+ A A+ A+
1.59 82% 45% 54% +21 -3 1.37 42% 1.1 .48 6% .39 77% .30 0.96 75% 33% 24% -7 -7 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 13% .23 57% .13
Jan
3		 TCU C+ F+ A+ F F 43% 17% 39% B F+ A D B A- A A A+ B+ A+ C+ D- A 41% 22% 37% B- A- F A+ B B- F A- D
0.98 45% 50% 22% -11 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .32 17% .34 78% .26 1.07 40% 36% 39% -5 0 0.92 48% 0.7 .33 17% .43 65% .28
Jan
7		 Iowa St. D C F F F 15% 38% 48% F F A+ B+ A+ B A+ F A+ A+ F C A+ A+ 18% 53% 29% A+ A+ C A B+ B+ D+ A C+
0.87 57% 17% 13% -23 -4 0.48 43% 1.2 .51 20% .53 59% .31 1.01 78% 38% 21% -2 -6 0.88 38% 0.9 .36 17% .35 60% .21
Jan
10		 Houston D A F A+ A- 9% 43% 49% F C+ B B B D- A+ F A+ C F D+ B B- 7% 44% 48% A+ A- F A+ C F+ B A+ A
0.89 67% 20% 41% -2 -5 0.89 31% 1.0 .31 26% .67 58% .39 1.24 100% 42% 31% +2 -5 0.96 49% 0.8 .40 8% .23 62% .14
Jan
13		 Oklahoma St. A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% C+ A+ A- A+ A+ C+ D+ A C C+ B B- D+ B 59% 6% 35% F C+ F+ C D C A+ A+ A+
1.38 65% 56% 52% +17 +1 1.38 36% 1.3 .48 18% .25 79% .20 1.16 53% 33% 37% -2 +3 1.06 38% 1.0 .38 15% .21 58% .12
Jan
16		 Kansas C+ F D C C 34% 19% 47% B- C C A- B- D+ D+ B C- C C- F B C- 45% 27% 29% C C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A
0.94 39% 30% 32% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.0 .27 17% .18 70% .13 1.21 64% 53% 31% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.9 .18 6% .21 85% .18
Jan
20		 Texas Tech B A+ B+ C A+ 10% 51% 39% F B+ A- A+ A+ C+ A F C F F F F F 10% 40% 50% A+ F A+ C+ A+ A A- F B
1.08 100% 44% 32% +6 -6 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 16% .35 50% .18 1.37 80% 52% 62% +29 -5 1.50 22% 1.0 .22 19% .20 82% .17
Jan
24		 TCU A- A+ A+ B A+ 11% 43% 47% F A+ A+ C- A D A+ B- A+ F+ F F+ F F 8% 66% 26% A+ D+ A+ F A D+ F F F
1.14 100% 60% 36% +15 -5 1.23 40% 1.0 .40 23% .59 72% .42 1.22 100% 45% 46% +13 -8 1.12 19% 1.3 .26 14% .63 81% .51
Jan
28		 Cincinnati D C- C- F D- 47% 16% 37% A D+ B- F+ C- A F F F A A+ F A- B+ 16% 33% 51% A+ A A+ F B+ F+ B+ F C+
0.83 50% 38% 21% -11 +1 0.82 27% 0.9 .24 15% .15 56% .09 0.98 44% 50% 29% -2 -3 0.91 21% 1.3 .26 12% .23 79% .18
Jan
31		 West Virginia B+ C A+ C+ A- 43% 20% 37% B- A- A- A A F F A F A+ A A+ B- A+ 49% 10% 41% F+ A+ D+ A+ B+ A D- C+ D
1.04 55% 44% 35% +1 +1 1.04 33% 1.2 .40 23% .11 80% .09 0.88 47% 0% 31% -11 +2 0.85 34% 0.8 .29 22% .38 67% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Colorado A A+ A+ B+ A+ 9% 47% 45% F A C- A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ A F C+ F C 9% 62% 30% A+ A- A+ A A+ C+ F+ A- D
1.27 75% 55% 38% +12 -6 1.15 25% 2.2 .54 13% .42 80% .34 0.99 75% 38% 43% +5 -7 0.98 24% 0.8 .18 15% .40 70% .28
Feb
7		 Iowa St. A A+ C- D- C+ 17% 25% 58% D+ C C A+ A+ A+ F+ D F+ B+ F D+ A C- 33% 28% 40% A C+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ B+ D+
1.10 75% 33% 29% -3 -2 0.92 26% 2.6 .68 14% .17 67% .11 1.15 93% 42% 29% +10 -1 1.19 45% 0.6 .29 22% .39 63% .25
Feb
10		 BYU A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 2% 62% 36% F A+ A D+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ F+ F F A+ F 12% 59% 29% A+ C- B- D- C- F D D- D-
1.27 100% 52% 47% +16 -8 1.19 36% 1.1 .39 18% .41 80% .33 1.34 100% 68% 18% +15 -7 1.19 35% 1.3 .47 7% .36 80% .29
Feb
14		 Louisville B A+ A- F C+ 30% 30% 40% C- C+ A+ F D+ A A+ A+ A+ B- D A+ F C 54% 9% 37% D C- A- F D- A D- F F
1.05 86% 43% 11% -5 -2 0.89 39% 0.5 .18 13% .51 83% .42 1.21 68% 25% 41% +8 +3 1.24 29% 1.5 .43 21% .37 90% .33
Feb
17		 Kansas St. D- B D F F 40% 26% 34% C- F A- D+ B F B C B B- D+ F F+ D- 51% 22% 27% C D A+ F C A+ C F D
0.91 61% 33% 10% -13 -1 0.76 41% 1.1 .45 23% .34 71% .24 1.11 64% 50% 40% +8 +1 1.20 18% 2.0 .36 22% .27 82% .22
Feb
21		 Arizona St. B- A+ A+ A+ A+ 16% 44% 40% F A+ F F F C+ D F F B+ F B- B+ C+ 13% 43% 43% A+ B+ B- F D- B- A- C+ B+
1.12 88% 59% 45% +21 -5 1.34 19% 0.2 .04 20% .25 46% .11 1.04 100% 35% 30% +2 -5 0.96 30% 1.6 .47 17% .29 75% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.3 9th
10th 1.4 0.3 1.7 10th
11th 0.4 10.0 6.4 0.1 17.0 11th
12th 5.8 18.0 1.2 25.1 12th
13th 1.4 24.6 8.8 0.1 34.9 13th
14th 5.7 12.5 0.7 18.9 14th
15th 2.0 0.1 2.1 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 16th
Total 9.2 43.4 37.6 9.2 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.6% 64.7% 0.8% 63.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 64.4%
7-11 9.2% 21.3% 0.2% 21.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.4 7.3 21.2%
6-12 37.6% 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 36.8 1.9%
5-13 43.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 43.4 0.0%
4-14 9.2% 9.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 0.1% 3.1% 11.0 96.9 3.1%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.3%