Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#27
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#35
Pace72.3#102
Improvement+1.3#103

Offense
Total Offense+11.4#8
First Shot+8.9#14
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#42
Layup/Dunks-1.5#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#2
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
Freethrows+2.4#55
Improvement+1.3#89

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#77
First Shot+3.8#65
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#217
Layups/Dunks+8.1#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.5#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#66
Freethrows+1.1#104
Improvement+0.0#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 3.5% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 15.7% 20.9% 8.8%
Top 6 Seed 40.8% 50.5% 27.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.8% 88.8% 72.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.3% 88.4% 71.9%
Average Seed 6.6 6.3 7.3
.500 or above 94.1% 97.5% 89.5%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 78.3% 53.7%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 2.0%
First Four6.2% 4.7% 8.2%
First Round79.1% 86.8% 68.8%
Second Round53.8% 61.6% 43.3%
Sweet Sixteen21.7% 25.9% 16.1%
Elite Eight8.0% 9.7% 5.6%
Final Four2.9% 3.6% 1.9%
Championship Game1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 57.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 10
Quad 25 - 212 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96-81 96%     1 - 0 +10.0 +12.3 -3.8
  Sun, Nov 9 48 Washington W 78-69 75%     2 - 0 +16.8 +7.4 +9.2
  Fri, Nov 14 180 Tarleton St. W 94-81 95%     3 - 0 +8.5 +16.3 -8.4
  Mon, Nov 24 36 Creighton W 81-74 56%     4 - 0 +20.2 +17.2 +3.2
  Tue, Nov 25 19 St. John's L 81-96 44%     4 - 1 +1.4 +14.4 -12.6
  Wed, Nov 26 52 San Diego St. W 91-81 68%     5 - 1 +19.9 +22.6 -2.8
  Tue, Dec 2 276 Sacramento St. W 110-88 98%     6 - 1 +12.8 +24.8 -13.7
  Sat, Dec 6 72 @Memphis L 71-78 65%     6 - 2 +3.7 +5.1 -1.2
  Wed, Dec 10 243 Norfolk St. W 97-67 97%     7 - 2 +22.2 +14.7 +5.1
  Fri, Dec 19 337 Alcorn St. W 113-56 99%     8 - 2 +43.0 +22.2 +14.9
  Sun, Dec 21 222 Southern W 111-67 97%     9 - 2 +37.2 +35.9 +1.3
  Sat, Jan 3 53 @TCU W 77-75 57%    
  Wed, Jan 7 3 Iowa St. L 79-83 35%    
  Sat, Jan 10 8 Houston L 73-75 41%    
  Tue, Jan 13 55 @Oklahoma St. W 89-86 60%    
  Fri, Jan 16 17 @Kansas L 74-80 30%    
  Tue, Jan 20 24 Texas Tech W 82-79 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 53 TCU W 80-72 77%    
  Wed, Jan 28 67 @Cincinnati W 79-75 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 62 @West Virginia W 75-72 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 73 Colorado W 88-78 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 3 @Iowa St. L 76-86 18%    
  Tue, Feb 10 11 BYU L 81-83 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 13 Louisville L 83-86 39%    
  Tue, Feb 17 58 @Kansas St. W 88-85 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 71 Arizona St. W 87-77 82%    
  Tue, Feb 24 2 Arizona L 80-85 32%    
  Sat, Feb 28 49 @Central Florida W 85-84 55%    
  Wed, Mar 4 8 @Houston L 70-78 22%    
  Sat, Mar 7 111 Utah W 90-76 90%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 1.1 0.1 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 2.1 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 5.8 3.3 0.3 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 6.2 4.2 0.6 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.5 4.9 0.8 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.4 3.7 5.2 1.2 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.7 1.6 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.9 8.8 12.6 14.8 15.3 13.5 10.6 7.2 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 86.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 57.1% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.8% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 2.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-4 3.8% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 3.4 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-5 7.2% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 4.2 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.6% 100.0% 4.1% 95.9% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.5% 99.9% 2.9% 96.9% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.5 4.5 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 15.3% 99.1% 1.7% 97.4% 6.8 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.8 4.7 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.1%
9-9 14.8% 95.9% 1.1% 94.8% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 4.1 3.0 1.5 0.3 0.6 95.9%
8-10 12.6% 79.3% 0.8% 78.5% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.4 0.1 2.6 79.1%
7-11 8.8% 45.2% 0.4% 44.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 0.2 4.8 45.0%
6-12 5.9% 13.2% 0.2% 13.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 13.1%
5-13 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 3.0 0.4%
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 81.8% 2.6% 79.2% 6.6 0.6 1.8 5.0 8.3 11.9 13.3 12.4 9.8 7.2 5.9 5.3 0.4 0.0 18.2 81.3%