Baylor
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#14
Expected Predictive Rating+16.3#13
Pace69.1#148
Improvement+0.5#131

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#5
First Shot+5.7#37
After Offensive Rebound+4.9#2
Layup/Dunks-4.4#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#33
Freethrows+2.6#28
Improvement+0.3#141

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#70
First Shot+3.0#83
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#86
Layups/Dunks+7.1#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#192
Freethrows-0.7#241
Improvement+0.2#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.2%
#1 Seed 8.7% 10.4% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 32.3% 36.8% 16.9%
Top 4 Seed 80.6% 85.3% 64.6%
Top 6 Seed 95.1% 97.2% 88.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Average Seed 3.4 3.1 4.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 89.6% 66.1%
Conference Champion 8.8% 10.5% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 1.2%
First Round99.6% 99.9% 98.9%
Second Round85.5% 87.1% 79.9%
Sweet Sixteen50.5% 52.1% 45.1%
Elite Eight24.5% 25.6% 20.5%
Final Four11.5% 12.2% 9.2%
Championship Game5.4% 5.8% 3.9%
National Champion2.4% 2.5% 1.7%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Home) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 76 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 9
Quad 24 - 114 - 10
Quad 31 - 015 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 117-53 99.6%    1 - 0 +44.1 +23.1 +13.7
  Nov 11, 2022 203   Norfolk St. W 87-70 95%     2 - 0 +12.6 +11.1 +1.9
  Nov 14, 2022 268   Northern Colorado W 95-62 97%     3 - 0 +24.7 +3.8 +16.9
  Nov 18, 2022 16   Virginia L 79-86 52%     3 - 1 +7.2 +17.2 -10.4
  Nov 20, 2022 5   UCLA W 80-75 37%     4 - 1 +23.1 +19.0 +4.2
  Nov 23, 2022 339   McNeese St. W 89-60 99%     5 - 1 +15.3 +8.6 +7.3
  Nov 29, 2022 8   @ Marquette L 70-96 35%     5 - 2 -7.3 +3.8 -11.4
  Dec 02, 2022 13   Gonzaga W 64-63 49%     6 - 2 +15.9 -8.5 +24.4
  Dec 06, 2022 187   Tarleton St. W 80-57 95%     7 - 2 +19.3 +5.9 +13.3
  Dec 18, 2022 63   Washington St. W 65-59 73%     8 - 2 +14.4 +6.2 +9.1
  Dec 20, 2022 225   Northwestern St. W 58-48 96%     9 - 2 +4.3 -10.4 +16.1
  Dec 28, 2022 250   Nicholls St. W 85-56 97%     10 - 2 +21.5 -0.8 +19.0
  Dec 31, 2022 22   @ Iowa St. L 62-77 43%     10 - 3 0 - 1 +1.5 +1.0 +0.0
  Jan 04, 2023 15   TCU L 87-88 61%     10 - 4 0 - 2 +10.9 +16.6 -5.6
  Jan 07, 2023 28   Kansas St. L 95-97 OT 68%     10 - 5 0 - 3 +8.1 +17.2 -9.0
  Jan 11, 2023 23   @ West Virginia W 83-78 44%     11 - 5 1 - 3 +21.3 +16.7 +4.5
  Jan 14, 2023 35   Oklahoma St. W 74-58 70%     12 - 5 2 - 3 +25.2 +15.4 +11.0
  Jan 17, 2023 53   @ Texas Tech W 81-74 58%     13 - 5 3 - 3 +19.6 +32.0 -11.0
  Jan 21, 2023 43   @ Oklahoma W 62-60 56%     14 - 5 4 - 3 +15.3 +4.2 +11.3
  Jan 23, 2023 7   Kansas W 75-69 53%     15 - 5 5 - 3 +19.9 +13.5 +6.7
  Jan 28, 2023 18   Arkansas W 67-64 64%     16 - 5 +14.2 +8.7 +5.8
  Jan 30, 2023 10   @ Texas L 71-76 36%     16 - 6 5 - 4 +13.5 +7.6 +5.8
  Feb 04, 2023 53   Texas Tech W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 08, 2023 43   Oklahoma W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 11, 2023 15   @ TCU L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 13, 2023 23   West Virginia W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 18, 2023 7   @ Kansas L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 21, 2023 28   @ Kansas St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 10   Texas W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 27, 2023 35   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-70 49%    
  Mar 04, 2023 22   Iowa St. W 71-67 65%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.5 0.7 8.8 1st
2nd 0.3 5.4 6.5 0.9 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.9 10.4 1.9 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 10.5 4.9 0.1 17.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 7.8 8.5 0.6 17.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 5.2 8.8 1.7 0.0 16.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 4.3 1.3 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.0 10.7 19.6 25.0 22.0 12.5 4.5 0.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 97.2% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 78.7% 3.5    1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 31.6% 4.0    0.5 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.1
11-7 2.7% 0.6    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 2.9 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.7% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 1.2 0.5 0.2 100.0%
13-5 4.5% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 1.5 2.5 1.9 0.1 100.0%
12-6 12.5% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 1.9 3.6 7.0 1.9 0.1 100.0%
11-7 22.0% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.5 1.8 9.7 9.1 1.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 25.0% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.1 0.3 4.4 13.0 6.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
9-9 19.6% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 3.9 0.0 0.4 5.6 8.8 4.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
8-10 10.7% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 4.0% 99.4% 7.7% 91.7% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
6-12 0.9% 86.7% 8.9% 77.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 85.4%
5-13 0.1% 16.7% 6.7% 10.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.7%
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 12.4% 87.4% 3.4 8.7 23.6 30.0 18.4 9.7 4.8 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.2 76.6 23.4
Lose Out 0.1% 16.7% 12.0 3.3 10.0 3.3