Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#28
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#36
Pace72.6#95
Improvement+1.1#115

Offense
Total Offense+11.3#10
First Shot+8.8#15
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#46
Layup/Dunks-1.6#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#2
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows+2.5#41
Improvement+1.2#88

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#77
First Shot+3.7#70
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks+8.0#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.5#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#69
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement-0.2#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.0% 3.1% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 14.2% 19.8% 7.5%
Top 6 Seed 37.8% 47.7% 25.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.3% 88.4% 70.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.7% 88.0% 70.0%
Average Seed 6.7 6.3 7.3
.500 or above 93.8% 97.5% 89.3%
.500 or above in Conference 67.6% 79.0% 54.0%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 1.8%
First Four6.1% 4.6% 7.9%
First Round77.5% 86.4% 66.9%
Second Round51.4% 59.4% 41.8%
Sweet Sixteen19.8% 24.1% 14.5%
Elite Eight7.0% 8.8% 5.0%
Final Four2.6% 3.3% 1.7%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 54.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 10
Quad 25 - 212 - 12
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 219 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96-81 97%     5.6   1 - 0 +8.5 +11.3 -4.3
  Sun, Nov 9 49 Washington W 78-69 75%     4.1   2 - 0 +16.8 +7.8 +8.7
  Fri, Nov 14 164 Tarleton St. W 94-81 94%     10.2   3 - 0 +9.6 +16.9 -7.9
  Mon, Nov 24 38 Creighton W 81-74 57%     5.3   4 - 0 +20.0 +16.6 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 25 18 St. John's L 81-96 43%     -11.9   4 - 1 +1.5 +14.4 -12.5
  Wed, Nov 26 52 San Diego St. W 91-81 67%     4.1   5 - 1 +20.3 +23.1 -2.8
  Tue, Dec 2 278 Sacramento St. W 110-88 98%     6.9   6 - 1 +12.6 +24.8 -13.8
  Sat, Dec 6 68 @Memphis L 71-78 64%     -2.1   6 - 2 +3.9 +5.1 -1.1
  Wed, Dec 10 260 Norfolk St. W 97-67 97%     16.1   7 - 2 +21.5 +14.3 +4.7
  Fri, Dec 19 339 Alcorn St. W 113-56 99%     28.7   8 - 2 +42.7 +22.5 +14.3
  Sun, Dec 21 236 Southern W 111-67 97%     15.4   9 - 2 +36.9 +35.6 +1.3
  Sat, Jan 3 48 @TCU W 77-76 54%    
  Wed, Jan 7 4 Iowa St. L 79-83 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 11 Houston L 73-75 44%    
  Tue, Jan 13 55 @Oklahoma St. W 89-87 59%    
  Fri, Jan 16 16 @Kansas L 74-80 30%    
  Tue, Jan 20 21 Texas Tech W 82-80 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 48 TCU W 80-73 74%    
  Wed, Jan 28 58 @Cincinnati W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Jan 31 64 @West Virginia W 76-73 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 86 Colorado W 89-78 84%    
  Sat, Feb 7 4 @Iowa St. L 76-86 17%    
  Tue, Feb 10 10 BYU L 81-83 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 12 Louisville L 83-87 36%    
  Tue, Feb 17 69 @Kansas St. W 89-85 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 70 Arizona St. W 87-77 82%    
  Tue, Feb 24 2 Arizona L 80-86 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 53 @Central Florida W 85-84 56%    
  Wed, Mar 4 11 @Houston L 70-78 25%    
  Sat, Mar 7 111 Utah W 89-75 90%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.0 1.1 0.1 6.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 4.5 1.8 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.7 2.8 0.3 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 6.1 4.4 0.6 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.3 4.9 1.0 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.3 4.0 5.4 1.4 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.8 1.8 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.6 3.3 2.4 0.3 6.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 2.8 0.4 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.6 8.9 12.7 15.1 15.3 14.0 10.1 6.6 4.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 88.5% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.1
15-3 51.3% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.2
14-4 20.9% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 1.5% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 2.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.0% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 3.5 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.6% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.1% 100.0% 5.3% 94.7% 5.1 0.0 0.7 2.4 3.2 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.0% 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 6.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 4.5 3.6 1.1 0.2 100.0%
10-8 15.3% 99.0% 2.1% 96.9% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 4.9 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.9%
9-9 15.1% 94.9% 1.3% 93.6% 8.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.4 4.4 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.8 94.8%
8-10 12.7% 74.4% 1.4% 73.1% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.0 3.0 2.3 0.1 3.2 74.1%
7-11 8.9% 39.8% 0.4% 39.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.9 2.1 0.1 5.4 39.5%
6-12 5.6% 12.2% 0.2% 12.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.9 12.0%
5-13 3.2% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 3.2 0.4%
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 80.3% 3.2% 77.1% 6.7 0.5 1.5 4.5 7.7 10.9 12.7 13.6 11.0 6.7 5.8 5.1 0.4 19.7 79.7%