Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#13
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#28
Pace64.9#293
Improvement+0.5#156

Offense
Total Offense+11.1#6
First Shot+7.8#21
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#40
Layup/Dunks+2.7#92
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#42
Freethrows-1.5#263
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#69
First Shot+3.5#76
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#129
Layups/Dunks+8.7#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#289
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#342
Freethrows+1.7#82
Improvement+0.3#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.3%
#1 Seed 6.7% 6.9% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 16.4% 16.8% 6.0%
Top 4 Seed 42.3% 42.9% 23.3%
Top 6 Seed 62.9% 63.6% 43.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.3% 87.8% 73.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.0% 86.5% 70.9%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 6.2
.500 or above 92.6% 93.1% 78.1%
.500 or above in Conference 83.1% 83.4% 73.4%
Conference Champion 10.7% 10.8% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 1.4%
First Four4.7% 4.6% 7.5%
First Round85.3% 85.9% 69.0%
Second Round66.3% 67.0% 46.7%
Sweet Sixteen36.8% 37.4% 21.8%
Elite Eight18.0% 18.3% 7.9%
Final Four8.5% 8.7% 2.8%
Championship Game3.7% 3.8% 0.7%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 0.1%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 12
Quad 44 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 20%     0 - 1 -13.8 -0.9 -12.7
  Nov 09, 2024 33   Arkansas W 72-67 60%     1 - 1 +17.7 +11.7 +6.4
  Nov 12, 2024 139   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 94%     2 - 1 +35.3 +24.3 +9.3
  Nov 17, 2024 323   Tarleton St. W 104-41 99%     3 - 1 +51.0 +26.5 +23.9
  Nov 21, 2024 20   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 53%     4 - 1 +15.5 +11.5 +3.8
  Nov 22, 2024 4   Tennessee L 62-77 32%     4 - 2 +5.2 +8.9 -5.9
  Nov 27, 2024 344   New Orleans W 91-60 99%     5 - 2 +15.8 +18.7 -0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 11   @ Connecticut L 72-76 38%     5 - 3 +14.5 +15.8 -1.9
  Dec 09, 2024 178   Abilene Christian W 82-63 97%    
  Dec 11, 2024 153   Norfolk St. W 81-63 95%    
  Dec 31, 2024 60   Utah W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 07, 2025 25   Cincinnati W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 51   @ Arizona St. W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 14, 2025 23   @ Arizona L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 19, 2025 78   TCU W 78-67 85%    
  Jan 22, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 60   @ Utah W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 28, 2025 49   @ BYU W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 7   Kansas W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 04, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 83   Central Florida W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 10, 2025 6   @ Houston L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 45   West Virginia W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 17, 2025 23   Arizona W 81-77 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 85   @ Colorado W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 25, 2025 25   @ Cincinnati L 71-73 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 81   Oklahoma St. W 82-70 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 78   @ TCU W 75-70 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 6   Houston L 67-68 50%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.2 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.2 3.0 0.6 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 5.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 5.2 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.6 1.0 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.6 1.1 0.1 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.6 0.2 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.7 7.0 9.9 11.6 13.5 13.2 12.0 10.0 6.8 3.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.3% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 95.2% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 75.7% 2.9    1.9 0.9 0.1
16-4 46.3% 3.2    1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 18.7% 1.9    0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 5.8 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 3.9% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 1.7 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.8% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 2.1 1.8 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.0% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.9 1.0 2.6 3.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.0% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 3.7 0.4 1.4 3.5 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.2% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 4.5 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.0 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.5% 99.5% 5.9% 93.6% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.5 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-9 11.6% 97.9% 3.7% 94.2% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.8%
10-10 9.9% 91.7% 2.4% 89.3% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.5 0.1 0.8 91.5%
9-11 7.0% 61.0% 1.5% 59.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 0.5 2.7 60.4%
8-12 4.7% 20.7% 1.1% 19.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 3.7 19.8%
7-13 2.8% 3.8% 0.9% 2.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7 2.9%
6-14 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 87.3% 9.6% 77.8% 5.1 6.7 9.7 12.7 13.2 11.5 9.1 6.7 4.6 4.2 3.7 4.3 0.8 12.7 86.0%