Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -4.0 229
Results Rating -4.6 241
Consistency 0.14 94
Pace 72.5 74
Improvement -5.8 349

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 283 D+ C D- B- D+
Defense C 168 D D A F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 75 D 53% 302 +0.1 175
2 Pt. Jumpers 57% 27 C 39% 144 +3.3 40
Three Pointers 29% 358 C- 33% 226 -6.6 351
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 287 D+ -2.4 261
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 280
Second Chance C+ 31.6% 138 D+ 0.96 280 C 0.30 188
Opponents' Steals C 9.4% 182
Other Turnovers F 9.8% 360
Turnovers D- 19.3% 328
Freethrows B- 0.32 121 B- 75% 108 B- 0.24 101
Total Offense D+ -4.2 283

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 37% 332 D+ 13.0% 304
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 102 C 5.2% 205
Three Pointers C+ 87% 123 C 0.8% 166
Total D- 46% 335 D- 7.3% 332


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 276 D+ 62% 281 -0.4 154
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 241 D- 43% 330 +0.1 197
Three Pointers 46% 47 D+ 36% 284 +4.0 335
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 171 D +3.6 320
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 305
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 285 D+ 1.10 284 D 0.36 299
Turnovers from Steals A- 12.5% 17
Other Turnovers A- 9.1% 17
Turnovers A 21.6% 8
Freethrows F 0.39 356 D+ 74% 276 F 0.29 357
Total Defense C +0.2 168

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 52% 258 C+ 12.1% 126
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 214 C- 3.8% 237
Three Pointers C- 85% 232 D 0.2% 338
Total D+ 59% 271 C- 5.1% 208

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 181 16.2 20
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 55 0.17 190
Consistency 0.11 77 0.13 200
Improvement -5.5 352 -0.3 199

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 230 229 228
Results Rating Rank 243 241 240
Conference Record 5 - 13 5 - 13 5 - 13
Conference Finish 6 6 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 12
Quad 48 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 42 @SMU L 76 - 96 4% -7  3% 0 - 1 C- -4 C+ +3 D C D D -6 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 5 59 @LSU L 60 - 96 7% -19  2% 0 - 2 F -23 F+ -10 F C- B F -14 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 175 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 77 50% +13  98% 1 - 2 C+ +4 A- +11 B+ A+ C+ D- -7 D+ D C+
 Tue, Nov 11 174 Merrimack W 76 - 62 50% +5  81% 2 - 2 B +10 D+ -3 B D+ F+ A+ +13 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 46 @Baylor L 81 - 94 5% -10  2% 2 - 3 C+ +2 B +6 A A+ F D+ -4 D- F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 225 @Rice W 90 - 74 37% +3  49% 3 - 3 A- +15 B +7 A+ F+ D+ A- +7 D+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 1 40 @Cincinnati L 58 - 76 4% -8  8% 3 - 4 C- -2 D -6 B- B- F B +4 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 88 - 64 92% +9  88% 4 - 4 C+ +4 C- -1 B- F+ F B +4 F F+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 311 Florida A&M W 78 - 54 78% +14  79% 5 - 4 B+ +12 D- -8 D- A+ F A+ +18 A+ C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 172 @Texas Arlington W 69 - 63 27% +6  91% 6 - 4 1 - 0 B +8 C+ +4 B- B- A+ B +5 C C A+
 Thu, Jan 1 98 Utah Valley L 85 - 91 27% -2  26% 6 - 5 1 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 D+ C+ A+ D- -8 F+ C B
 Sat, Jan 3 119 California Baptist W 81 - 76 OT 36% +1  61% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +5 C+ +4 A- F F+ C+ +1 F D- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 246 Abilene Christian L 80 - 84 65% -7  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D- -12 C +1 F A+ B+ F -13 F F A
 Thu, Jan 15 264 @Southern Utah L 105 - 106 OT 44% -5  3% 7 - 7 2 - 3 C- -4 C+ +3 C A F D- -7 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 198 @Utah Tech L 71 - 75 31% -6  0% 7 - 8 2 - 4 C- -3 D -5 F+ F+ A- B- +2 F+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 172 @Texas Arlington L 64 - 71 27% -1  29% 7 - 9 2 - 5 C- -5 D+ -3 C D- F C- -2 D- C- C+
 Thu, Jan 29 98 Utah Valley L 55 - 83 27% -4  38% 7 - 10 2 - 6 F -26 F -20 F C- F D+ -4 F+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 198 Utah Tech L 59 - 65 54% -1  46% 7 - 11 2 - 7 D -11 F -14 F A- F B- +3 F A+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 119 @California Baptist L 55 - 56 18% +1  58% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C+ +5 F -11 C F F A+ +16 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 264 @Southern Utah W 62 - 59 44% +1  53% 8 - 12 3 - 8 C +0 F -15 F+ D F A+ +15 A- C A+
 Sat, Feb 14 246 @Abilene Christian L 59 - 73 42% +3  59% 8 - 13 3 - 9 F+ -16 F -14 D F F C- -2 F F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 246 Abilene Christian W 65 - 62 OT 65% -1  26% 9 - 13 4 - 9 D+ -5 F -16 F F D- A +11 B B A+
 Thu, Feb 19 264 Southern Utah W 78 - 74 67% +1  66% 10 - 13 5 - 9 C- -5 C +1 B- D+ D+ D -5 C D+ B+
 Sat, Feb 21 198 Utah Tech L 72 - 80 54% +2  68% 10 - 14 5 - 10 D- -13 C- -2 F C+ A F -12 B- F C+
 Thu, Feb 26 98 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 13% -5  2% 10 - 15 5 - 11 C +1 C+ +2 C D+ A C -1 C A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 119 @California Baptist L 67 - 82 18% -11  0% 10 - 16 5 - 12 D -9 C +1 D+ A- F F -11 D+ F+ F+
 Thu, Mar 5 172 Texas Arlington L 60 - 65 49% -0  41% 10 - 17 5 - 13 D -9 D+ -3 D+ C- D+ D -6 B F B+
 Wed, Mar 11 246 Abilene Christian L 78 - 84 54% -9  3% 10 - 18 D -11 D+ -3 F C- A+ D- -7 F+ D- C-
Totals 10 - 18 5 - 13 -4 D+ -4 A- D+ D+ C +0 C- B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D C C- D+ 42% 57% 29% D+ D+ C+ D+ C D- B- B- B- C D+ D- D+ D 35% 19% 46% C D D+ D+ D A F D+ F
1.03 53% 39% 33% -2 -1 0.96 32% 1.0 .30 19% .32 75% .24 1.08 62% 43% 36% +4 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 22% .39 74% .24
Nov
3		 SMU C+ A+ F B+ C- 22% 43% 35% F D C+ D+ C D A+ A+ A+ D F F F+ F 30% 33% 37% A D- A+ A- A+ C+ F D- F
1.04 80% 15% 38% -3 -4 0.87 30% 0.9 .27 21% .61 83% .50 1.32 79% 53% 41% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.9 .25 15% .68 79% .53
Nov
5		 LSU F+ F F F+ F 43% 17% 40% B+ F C- D+ C- B C B C+ F F F F F 54% 10% 37% F F F D+ F A+ F C+ F
0.88 43% 11% 29% -14 +1 0.75 27% 0.8 .23 13% .30 72% .22 1.41 95% 50% 47% +28 +3 1.63 44% 1.3 .56 22% .55 76% .41
Nov
8		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- F A+ A+ A 37% 29% 34% F+ B+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A- A+ D- B+ C F+ C- 45% 17% 38% D D+ F C+ D C+ F B+ F
1.23 40% 58% 50% +8 -1 1.15 35% 1.4 .50 19% .66 78% .52 1.11 48% 38% 39% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.9 .35 19% .52 62% .32
Nov
11		 Merrimack D+ C+ A+ F A- 45% 37% 18% F+ B C+ F+ D+ F+ A+ C- A A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% D+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ F C F
1.03 57% 58% 22% +4 -2 1.06 42% 0.8 .35 23% .44 72% .32 0.84 53% 25% 18% -15 +2 0.76 38% 0.7 .26 29% .46 79% .36
Nov
14		 Baylor B A+ A+ C A+ 10% 71% 18% F A A+ F A+ F C+ A+ B+ D+ D- F F+ F 15% 33% 52% A D- B F F A+ D+ F F+
1.11 100% 54% 33% +16 -9 1.16 60% 0.8 .47 29% .27 86% .23 1.29 71% 63% 40% +15 -3 1.25 36% 1.9 .68 21% .34 85% .29
Nov
20		 Rice B A+ B B A+ 50% 34% 16% B- A+ D+ F F+ D+ A B- A A- F A D D 24% 27% 49% C D+ B+ A+ A+ B- F A+ B-
1.21 84% 41% 38% +15 -1 1.30 29% 0.8 .21 17% .41 76% .31 0.99 69% 27% 37% +2 -2 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 19% .40 46% .18
Dec
1		 Cincinnati D F B A+ C+ 41% 20% 39% B B- D- A+ B- F C+ F D+ B B- A+ F F 17% 12% 71% C F F C- F A+ D+ A+ C+
0.82 33% 44% 41% -5 0 0.93 17% 1.8 .31 27% .27 57% .15 1.07 57% 20% 47% +11 0 1.24 44% 1.1 .47 30% .30 60% .18
Dec
16		 Mississippi Valley C- C F A+ C+ 51% 14% 35% B+ B- D+ F+ F+ F D A+ B B F+ F C+ F 43% 27% 30% F F B- F F+ A+ B- B B
1.17 62% 29% 44% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 21% .37 91% .34 0.85 63% 58% 31% +6 -1 1.14 21% 1.4 .29 35% .24 67% .16
Dec
19		 Florida A&M D- F A+ A+ F+ 61% 20% 18% B D- B- A+ A+ F A- C- B A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 13% 45% F A+ A- D- C+ A+ F A- F
1.00 43% 50% 44% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.3 .46 26% .40 74% .29 0.70 50% 17% 19% -16 +1 0.72 23% 1.0 .23 30% .44 63% .27
Dec
29		 Texas Arlington C+ B- C C+ B+ 35% 39% 26% F+ B- F+ A+ B- A+ A+ F D B B+ C C- C- 39% 21% 39% B- C B- D+ C A+ F C+ F
1.05 63% 39% 33% +2 -3 1.00 20% 1.7 .34 11% .48 46% .22 0.96 47% 38% 33% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 27% .59 71% .42
Jan
1		 Utah Valley B- F+ A+ D- D 47% 22% 31% C D+ D A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- D- B- D F+ 59% 7% 35% F F+ C- B- C B F F+ F
1.12 46% 50% 29% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 12% .48 88% .42 1.20 67% 33% 38% +7 +3 1.22 38% 1.0 .38 22% .61 75% .46
Jan
3		 California Baptist C+ A F+ A+ A+ 33% 41% 26% F A- D F F F+ A+ B- A+ C+ F F D F 46% 13% 41% D- F D D D- A+ D C- D
1.09 67% 32% 50% +6 -3 1.09 21% 0.6 .12 19% .64 74% .48 1.02 67% 50% 37% +7 +2 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 28% .34 72% .24
Jan
8		 Abilene Christian C F F+ F F 67% 22% 11% B F A- A+ A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 43% 23% 34% D+ F F F F A F D+ F
1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46 1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35
Jan
15		 Southern Utah C+ D- D- A+ D+ 61% 18% 21% A C D+ A+ A F A+ B A+ D- D- C+ D- F 40% 11% 49% F+ F C F F C+ F D+ F
1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28 1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43
Jan
17		 Utah Tech D D- A+ F F 57% 17% 26% B F+ B+ F F+ A- A- F C B- F A+ C- F+ 38% 11% 51% D F+ B+ F C A+ F C- F
1.02 55% 50% 13% -8 +2 0.90 39% 0.6 .22 11% .36 59% .21 1.08 88% 0% 35% +8 +1 1.20 23% 1.2 .27 23% .43 74% .32
Jan
21		 Texas Arlington D+ B- D F C 52% 34% 14% C C B+ F D- F B- A+ A+ C- D+ F A+ D 49% 8% 44% F D- B+ F C- C+ F B F
0.95 61% 33% 17% -4 -1 0.93 34% 0.6 .22 27% .39 95% .36 1.05 58% 100% 24% -2 +2 1.03 31% 1.1 .35 21% .66 69% .45
Jan
29		 Utah Valley F F F B- F 37% 30% 33% F+ F C+ D C- F A+ D A+ D+ C- C- F F 51% 18% 31% B- F+ F F F A+ C- F F
0.76 25% 15% 36% -18 -1 0.63 32% 0.9 .29 26% .55 69% .38 1.15 61% 38% 50% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.5 .65 28% .31 94% .29
Jan
31		 Utah Tech F F B F F 46% 10% 44% B+ F A+ D+ A- F B+ A+ A B- F C F F 30% 17% 52% B- F A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+
0.93 45% 40% 14% -19 +2 0.69 44% 1.0 .44 20% .34 82% .28 1.02 71% 38% 50% +16 0 1.35 21% 0.0 .00 22% .16 38% .06
Feb
5		 California Baptist F A+ C+ F C+ 45% 39% 16% F+ C F F+ F F F A+ F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 27% 30% B+ A+ F A- C- A+ F F F
0.84 70% 40% 0% -2 -2 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 20% .11 83% .09 0.85 26% 50% 23% -15 -1 0.70 47% 0.8 .35 24% .40 80% .32
Feb
7		 Southern Utah F F A D+ F+ 50% 32% 18% D+ F+ D+ D D F D D D A+ A+ A- D- A- 33% 23% 44% B A- F A C A+ A+ F B+
0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15 0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Abilene Christian F D A+ D D 48% 24% 29% D+ D D+ F F F D F F C- D B F+ F 33% 15% 53% D+ F F C- F A+ F F F
0.84 55% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 23% 0.7 .17 30% .41 55% .22 1.04 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.10 45% 0.9 .42 31% .64 81% .52
Feb
16		 Abilene Christian F B- B F D- 35% 35% 30% F F F F F D- A+ B- A+ A F B A+ B 38% 32% 30% B+ B F A+ B A+ F A+ C-
0.86 64% 43% 25% 0 -2 0.98 10% 0.7 .07 25% .62 74% .46 0.82 67% 33% 14% -7 -1 0.85 39% 0.6 .22 26% .45 56% .25
Feb
19		 Southern Utah C A C F C+ 62% 27% 11% B B- B F D+ D+ B- F+ C D A+ A+ F C- 35% 21% 44% C+ C F A D+ B+ F F+ F
1.17 71% 40% 17% +5 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 15% .30 65% .19 1.11 33% 22% 53% 0 0 1.02 42% 0.8 .33 22% .52 78% .40
Feb
21		 Utah Tech C- A- F C- D 26% 38% 36% F F D A+ C+ A D+ A+ B- F C C- C+ C+ 21% 21% 57% A B- F F F C+ F F F
1.11 71% 20% 32% -5 -3 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 11% .26 87% .22 1.23 60% 40% 33% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.8 .67 17% .37 85% .32
Feb
26		 Utah Valley C+ D- F A+ C 49% 25% 25% C- C B F D+ A F+ F F C D+ D- A- C 56% 15% 29% C- C A A A+ F F C F
1.04 48% 29% 50% -1 0 1.00 36% 0.7 .26 16% .27 63% .17 1.14 63% 43% 29% +1 +2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 13% .46 68% .31
Feb
28		 California Baptist C F B B+ C- 45% 36% 18% D- D+ A+ F A- F A+ A- A+ F A+ D+ F D 38% 25% 38% B+ D+ F+ D F+ F+ F F F
1.00 40% 44% 38% -5 -2 0.89 50% 0.7 .36 25% .46 78% .36 1.23 39% 42% 44% 0 -1 1.00 43% 1.0 .43 13% .50 83% .41
Mar
5		 Texas Arlington D+ F A- F+ D 45% 28% 28% C+ D+ A- F C- D+ A+ F A+ D F+ C A+ B- 29% 21% 50% A- B D F F B+ F F F
0.99 44% 45% 27% -7 0 0.88 36% 0.8 .28 18% .63 61% .38 1.07 64% 38% 21% -8 -1 0.84 38% 1.4 .54 23% .60 86% .52
Mar
11		 Abilene Christian D+ F C+ A+ F+ 31% 47% 22% F F B- F C- A+ A+ C A D- C+ F B+ F 27% 39% 34% A+ F+ A+ F D- C- F D+ F
1.02 40% 39% 45% -1 -4 0.92 30% 0.9 .27 17% .55 71% .39 1.10 55% 63% 29% +6 -3 1.07 21% 1.7 .36 20% .73 73% .54



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
Total 100.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 100.0% 100.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%