Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#323
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#305
Pace66.8#242
Improvement+2.3#46

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#345
First Shot-3.4#279
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#335
Layup/Dunks-1.6#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.2#350
Freethrows+1.9#75
Improvement+1.8#55

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#249
First Shot-2.5#256
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#165
Layups/Dunks+3.7#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#334
Freethrows-0.9#249
Improvement+0.5#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.1 15.9
.500 or above 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.8% 11.9% 5.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 57.1% 44.6% 57.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 3.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 92 - 17
Quad 44 - 66 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 62   @ SMU L 62-96 4%     0 - 1 -21.8 -11.1 -8.9
  Nov 09, 2024 139   Sam Houston St. L 62-91 24%     0 - 2 -30.7 -17.9 -10.6
  Nov 12, 2024 61   @ Florida St. L 52-72 3%     0 - 3 -7.7 -15.2 +8.2
  Nov 17, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 41-104 1%     0 - 4 -44.6 -26.4 -17.6
  Nov 21, 2024 16   @ Michigan L 49-72 1%     0 - 5 -4.9 -9.8 +3.1
  Nov 29, 2024 274   Iona L 51-62 39%     0 - 6 -17.2 -16.7 -1.8
  Nov 30, 2024 156   Hofstra W 61-59 19%     1 - 6 +2.3 -1.2 +3.8
  Dec 01, 2024 191   Indiana St. L 71-87 23%     1 - 7 -17.3 -4.8 -12.6
  Dec 08, 2024 83   @ Central Florida L 60-79 4%    
  Dec 16, 2024 158   @ UTEP L 62-74 13%    
  Dec 18, 2024 81   @ Oklahoma St. L 62-81 4%    
  Dec 29, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 70-63 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 161   Texas Arlington L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 09, 2025 199   @ Southern Utah L 67-77 17%    
  Jan 11, 2025 291   @ Utah Tech L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 16, 2025 185   California Baptist L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 100   @ Grand Canyon L 64-81 6%    
  Jan 23, 2025 178   @ Abilene Christian L 63-74 16%    
  Jan 30, 2025 291   Utah Tech W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 199   Southern Utah L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 06, 2025 123   @ Seattle L 60-74 10%    
  Feb 08, 2025 184   @ Utah Valley L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 13, 2025 100   Grand Canyon L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 15, 2025 123   Seattle L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 161   @ Texas Arlington L 68-80 15%    
  Feb 27, 2025 178   Abilene Christian L 66-71 33%    
  Mar 06, 2025 185   @ California Baptist L 62-73 17%    
  Mar 08, 2025 184   Utah Valley L 67-72 33%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.7 4.6 0.7 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 6.8 9.6 5.9 1.0 0.0 25.5 8th
9th 3.4 9.6 14.1 11.2 5.0 0.9 0.0 44.1 9th
Total 3.4 9.7 16.1 18.2 17.2 13.6 9.9 6.1 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 5.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.2% 9.6% 9.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-6 0.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-7 1.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
8-8 3.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.2
7-9 6.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.1
6-10 9.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.9
5-11 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.6
4-12 17.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.2
3-13 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.2
2-14 16.1% 16.1
1-15 9.7% 9.7
0-16 3.4% 3.4
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%