Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#187
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#143
Pace67.3#205
Improvement-0.9#287

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#220
First Shot-1.1#222
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#201
Layup/Dunks+0.2#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#355
Freethrows+3.5#9
Improvement-0.6#279

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#158
First Shot-0.9#208
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#75
Layups/Dunks+2.9#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
Freethrows-3.5#354
Improvement-0.3#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 43.3% 49.8% 19.6%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 75.1% 42.5%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 35 - 56 - 13
Quad 48 - 113 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 66   @ Arizona St. L 59-62 13%     0 - 1 +8.1 -11.9 +20.3
  Nov 18, 2022 128   Belmont W 89-81 37%     1 - 1 +10.3 +8.9 +0.8
  Nov 20, 2022 144   Boston College W 70-54 40%     2 - 1 +17.6 +7.5 +11.7
  Nov 21, 2022 84   Drake L 64-71 25%     2 - 2 -0.9 -2.8 +1.7
  Nov 26, 2022 109   @ Wichita St. L 71-83 24%     2 - 3 -5.6 +7.9 -14.3
  Nov 29, 2022 213   Weber St. W 75-65 65%     3 - 3 +5.1 +0.1 +4.8
  Dec 06, 2022 14   @ Baylor L 57-80 5%     3 - 4 -5.5 -10.5 +5.1
  Dec 11, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 49-75 13%     3 - 5 -14.9 -10.9 -7.4
  Dec 18, 2022 168   @ Air Force L 67-81 36%     3 - 6 -11.2 +0.5 -12.7
  Dec 29, 2022 274   Texas Arlington W 70-63 76%     4 - 6 1 - 0 -1.5 -2.7 +1.5
  Dec 31, 2022 218   @ Abilene Christian L 63-69 45%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -5.6 -12.4 +7.0
  Jan 05, 2023 114   Southern Utah W 68-65 45%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +3.4 -0.9 +4.6
  Jan 07, 2023 82   @ Sam Houston St. L 68-75 17%     5 - 8 2 - 2 +2.3 +2.0 +0.2
  Jan 11, 2023 317   Chicago St. W 73-63 83%     6 - 8 -1.1 -2.8 +2.4
  Jan 14, 2023 218   Abilene Christian W 72-63 65%     7 - 8 3 - 2 +4.0 -2.0 +6.2
  Jan 19, 2023 142   @ Seattle L 47-67 30%     7 - 9 3 - 3 -15.7 -19.0 +2.3
  Jan 21, 2023 156   @ California Baptist L 48-77 34%     7 - 10 3 - 4 -25.7 -10.0 -22.9
  Jan 26, 2023 211   Utah Tech W 74-72 65%     8 - 10 4 - 4 -2.8 -6.4 +3.5
  Jan 28, 2023 116   Grand Canyon W 81-62 46%     9 - 10 5 - 4 +19.1 +22.6 +0.3
  Feb 04, 2023 279   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-71 78%    
  Feb 06, 2023 274   @ Texas Arlington W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 09, 2023 114   @ Southern Utah L 71-78 25%    
  Feb 11, 2023 211   @ Utah Tech L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 15, 2023 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 18, 2023 82   Sam Houston St. L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 23, 2023 99   Utah Valley L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 25, 2023 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-74 59%    
  Mar 03, 2023 184   New Mexico St. W 72-70 60%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.3 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.0 1.8 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 4.8 5.9 0.4 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 6.0 10.5 2.7 0.0 19.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 6.7 13.5 5.5 0.3 26.8 7th
8th 0.5 5.4 10.0 4.8 0.3 21.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.1 1.2 0.1 5.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.4 3.0 10.0 18.6 24.7 21.8 13.9 5.8 1.6 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 95.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 35.4% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 0.2
13-5 1.6% 1.6
12-6 5.8% 5.8
11-7 13.9% 13.9
10-8 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.8
9-9 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.7
8-10 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.6
7-11 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-12 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%
Lose Out 0.4%