Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.0 176
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 161
Pace 65.0 273
Improvement -1.7 256

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 265 D C+ F+ B B-
Defense B- 104 B- C C D- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 28 D 51% 326 +0.8 146
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 63 C+ 40% 120 +0.1 174
Three Pointers 35% 304 D 30% 319 -5.0 328
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.5 110 D -4.5 323
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 305
Second Chance B 35.1% 54 D+ 0.96 283 C+ 0.34 114
Turnovers F+ 20.4% 344
Freethrows B 0.35 58 C 72% 189 B 0.25 72
Total Offense D+ -3.6 265

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 197 D+ 12.5% 270
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 34% 61 C 5.4% 208
Three Pointers B+ 92% 25 C- 1.1% 245
Total C 56% 164 D 7.1% 325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 200 C- 59% 202 +0.1 182
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 25 C 38% 188 +2.7 346
Three Pointers 34% 343 A- 29% 9 -6.2 2
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 43 B- -2.4 83
1st FG Attempt B- 0.95 68
Second Chance B- 28.2% 91 D 1.12 308 C 0.32 199
Turnovers C 16.9% 176
Freethrows D- 0.37 333 C 72% 185 D- 0.27 328
Total Defense B- +2.6 104

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 339 C- 9.6% 225
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 284 C+ 5.7% 118
Three Pointers B- 80% 73 C+ 1.1% 116
Total C 56% 191 C 5.6% 169

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.3 344 16.6 56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 164 0.25 355
Improvement +0.5 #153 -2.3 #297

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 210 176 147
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 5 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 11% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 76% 94% 66%
.500 or above in Conference 56% 83% 40%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round9% 11% 7%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 11
Quad 49 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 45 @New Mexico L 56 - 74 8% -12  4% 0 - 1 C- -3 F -14 F B- F A +11 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 202 Missouri St. W 67 - 49 67% +7  67% 1 - 1 B+ +13 F+ -9 C D- F A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 298 @Evansville W 84 - 76 65% +3  68% 2 - 1 C+ +3 A- +9 A+ A+ F D -6 B- F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 191 Campbell L 67 - 71 54% +4  82% 2 - 2 D+ -6 F -14 F D+ D- A- +8 B F A
 Sat, Nov 22 224 @Weber St. W 74 - 73 48% +0  47% 3 - 2 C +0 C +0 C- C- D+ C+ +0 C+ F C
 Sat, Nov 29 98 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 61 38% -3  23% 4 - 2 B- +7 C+ +2 C C F B+ +6 A- C B+
 Tue, Dec 2 140 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 83 31% -10  14% 4 - 3 F+ -16 F -13 F A D+ C- -2 D+ A C-
 Thu, Dec 11 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 58 - 50 34% +0  54% 5 - 3 B+ +11 D+ -3 D B F A+ +16 A A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 75 @Stanford L 60 - 76 14% -12  3% 5 - 4 D+ -5 D- -8 C- F D+ C+ +2 C C B
 Mon, Dec 22 338 @Oral Roberts W 69 - 57 77% +6  92% 6 - 4 C+ +3 D- -7 D+ B- F A+ +11 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 223 Tarleton St. L 63 - 69 70% -6  3% 6 - 5 0 - 1 D- -12 F+ -9 F C- F D+ -4 C- D+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 139 California Baptist W 63 - 51 53% +4  81% 7 - 5 1 - 1 B +10 D -4 F B C- A+ +16 B A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 273 @Southern Utah W 86 - 77 60% +1  48% 8 - 5 2 - 1 B- +5 B +6 A- D F C -0 C- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 243 Abilene Christian W 82 - 72 73% +6  91% 9 - 5 3 - 1 C+ +3 A +12 C- A+ B+ F+ -8 F D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 198 @Utah Tech W 56 - 52 43% +5  84% 10 - 5 4 - 1 B- +5 F -17 F F F A+ +22 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 95 @Utah Valley L 74 - 86 18% -14  0% 10 - 6 4 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 F+ A+ C- F+ -8 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 223 Tarleton St. W 71 - 64 70% +1  45% 11 - 6 5 - 2 C +1 C- -2 D C B B- +3 C+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 273 Southern Utah W 80 - 61 79% +14  96% 12 - 6 6 - 2 B +9 C- -0 D+ B- F+ A +10 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 139 California Baptist L 77 - 87 OT 53% -5  0% 12 - 7 6 - 3 D- -12 D -4 D C- D+ D -6 D+ D F
 Thu, Feb 5 198 @Utah Tech L 84 - 87 2OT 43% -1  36% 12 - 8 6 - 4 C- -2 C+ +2 F+ A A+ D+ -4 C F F
 Sat, Feb 7 95 @Utah Valley L 60 - 81 18% -9  16% 12 - 9 6 - 5 D- -12 C +1 A- D- F F -18 F F F+
 Thu, Feb 12 243 @Abilene Christian L 63 - 67 52% -2  28% 12 - 10 6 - 6 D+ -5 D- -7 A- D F C+ +1 A F+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 273 Southern Utah L 73 - 78 79% -3  9% 12 - 11 6 - 7 F+ -15 D- -7 D- D C+ D- -8 F D+ A-
 Thu, Feb 19 198 Utah Tech W 63 - 50 66% +6  89% 13 - 11 7 - 7 B- +8 D- -6 F A F+ A+ +16 A+ A B-
 Sat, Feb 21 95 Utah Valley L 68 - 72 37%
 Thu, Feb 26 139 @California Baptist L 62 - 67 31%
 Thu, Mar 5 223 @Tarleton St. L 68 - 69 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 243 @Abilene Christian W 66 - 65 52%
Totals 15 - 13 9 - 9 -1 D+ -4 A+ D B- B- +3 D C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D C+ D D 45% 49% 35% B- D B D+ C+ F+ B C B B- C- C A- B- 38% 28% 34% B B- B- D C C D- C D-
1.04 51% 40% 30% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.0 .34 20% .35 72% .25 1.05 59% 38% 29% -2 -1 0.95 28% 1.1 .32 17% .37 72% .25
Nov
8		 New Mexico F C A F F 34% 15% 51% B+ F A+ F B- F A+ D+ A+ A D F A+ A- 45% 8% 47% D B+ B A+ A+ B- F F+ F
0.78 57% 50% 14% -14 0 0.76 40% 0.8 .31 32% .49 71% .35 1.03 64% 50% 26% -2 +2 1.02 27% 0.7 .18 17% .45 81% .37
Nov
15		 Missouri St. F+ D- C+ A C- 44% 31% 25% B C A- F D- F D F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 57% 18% 25% F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F C- F
0.98 57% 40% 42% +3 -1 1.06 40% 0.6 .25 22% .32 35% .11 0.72 52% 13% 9% -17 +2 0.70 30% 0.3 .08 25% .47 67% .31
Nov
18		 Evansville A- A- A+ A+ A+ 33% 28% 38% D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D F+ A+ A- B 35% 26% 39% D+ B- D F F D+ F C+ F
1.23 69% 64% 47% +18 -1 1.36 56% 1.3 .72 31% .50 83% .42 1.11 69% 25% 28% -3 -1 0.93 26% 2.0 .53 18% .55 71% .39
Nov
21		 Campbell F F F C- F 56% 21% 23% B F C- D D+ D- B F C A- C C+ A+ B 51% 20% 29% C+ B C F F A F A+ F+
0.91 48% 9% 33% -12 +1 0.81 30% 1.1 .33 20% .34 65% .22 0.97 57% 33% 23% -6 +1 0.91 34% 1.4 .47 23% .57 59% .34
Nov
22		 Weber St. C C+ F D+ D+ 58% 12% 31% A- C- C- C C- D+ F A+ F+ C+ D- B A- C 40% 26% 34% A C+ A F F C B- F D
1.11 63% 17% 31% -1 +3 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 18% .22 83% .18 1.10 65% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 24% 1.7 .41 17% .31 88% .27
Nov
29		 Stephen F. Austin C+ F A+ A C- 59% 15% 26% A C A+ F C F A+ A A+ B+ B+ D+ A A- 41% 37% 22% B A- C- B- C B+ A- F B
1.07 39% 67% 40% -4 +2 0.97 41% 0.7 .30 21% .51 80% .41 0.99 48% 42% 27% -5 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 16% .15 75% .12
Dec
2		 Arkansas St. F F+ F F F 45% 27% 29% C F A- B A D+ A+ F B C- F D+ A+ D- 40% 28% 32% A D+ C- A+ A C- F C+ F
0.87 50% 23% 7% -19 0 0.63 36% 1.1 .40 17% .43 62% .26 1.14 76% 40% 24% +3 -1 1.06 39% 0.7 .28 19% .50 72% .36
Dec
11		 UT Rio Grande Valley D+ C+ B+ F D 30% 16% 53% C+ D A- C B F F C+ F+ A+ C+ A+ B A 36% 20% 43% B- A A+ C+ A+ B- C- B- C
1.00 62% 43% 26% -4 0 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 23% .25 73% .18 0.87 56% 11% 32% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 19% .24 73% .17
Dec
17		 Stanford D- D+ D D+ D+ 46% 22% 32% B C- F F F D+ A+ F+ A+ C+ F+ A+ B+ C 57% 14% 30% D+ C A F C B F D- F
0.89 53% 33% 31% -5 0 0.93 14% 0.8 .10 21% .54 69% .37 1.13 68% 17% 31% +1 +2 1.09 27% 1.3 .35 18% .58 78% .45
Dec
22		 Oral Roberts D- F F A+ D- 57% 2% 41% A D+ D A+ B- F B+ F+ B- A+ B- B A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% C- A+ D- A C+ B F F F
1.03 40% 0% 44% -5 +4 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 21% .38 65% .24 0.85 50% 33% 12% -16 +1 0.71 32% 0.8 .24 21% .47 84% .39
Dec
29		 Tarleton St. F+ F D+ C- F 39% 21% 39% C- F C C- C- F A+ C- A+ D+ D C C D 35% 39% 26% A+ C- A+ F D+ F F A+ B-
0.96 47% 38% 33% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.0 .33 27% .59 71% .42 1.05 63% 39% 33% +2 -3 1.00 20% 1.7 .34 11% .48 46% .22
Jan
1		 California Baptist D F F D- F 38% 29% 33% D F A- C B C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B- A+ C 33% 40% 28% A+ B A+ C+ A A+ C C C
0.99 44% 25% 29% -12 -1 0.76 34% 0.9 .31 16% .43 87% .37 0.80 57% 35% 25% -5 -3 0.86 25% 0.9 .21 27% .30 71% .21
Jan
3		 Southern Utah B D- B+ A+ A 41% 22% 37% C A- F+ C D F A+ A- A+ C F A- A+ C- 47% 22% 31% D+ C- B+ F+ C+ C F D- F
1.18 50% 45% 56% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.0 .24 18% .42 76% .32 1.06 71% 27% 25% -1 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 19% .36 76% .27
Jan
10		 Abilene Christian A D A- A+ C- 52% 26% 21% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C F+ F F 28% 46% 26% A+ F A F D- D F B+ F
1.24 55% 45% 44% +3 0 1.10 46% 1.4 .63 20% .55 86% .47 1.09 55% 44% 50% +8 -4 1.10 25% 1.4 .36 18% .59 66% .39
Jan
15		 Utah Tech F F D+ F F 62% 13% 26% A- F C+ F F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 23% 26% C- A+ D C C- F F+ A+ C+
0.83 41% 33% 25% -14 +3 0.79 33% 0.5 .15 24% .41 81% .33 0.77 44% 17% 7% -22 +1 0.58 32% 0.9 .28 12% .30 50% .15
Jan
17		 Utah Valley B- D+ F+ F F 41% 22% 37% C F+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B A+ F+ D+ D+ B C 44% 30% 26% A+ B- F F F F F A F
1.07 53% 30% 24% -10 0 0.83 42% 1.4 .58 22% .48 77% .37 1.24 64% 40% 31% +2 -1 1.04 45% 1.6 .73 16% .48 61% .29
Jan
21		 Tarleton St. C- C- A+ F F+ 49% 8% 44% A D D+ B- C B A+ D A+ B- D+ B+ A+ C+ 52% 34% 14% C+ C+ D A+ A- A+ D- F F
1.05 58% 100% 24% -2 +2 1.03 31% 1.1 .35 21% .66 69% .45 0.95 61% 33% 17% -4 -1 0.93 34% 0.6 .22 27% .39 95% .36
Jan
29		 Southern Utah C- C- F B+ D 53% 18% 29% B+ D+ A+ F B- F+ A+ B- A+ A A+ F+ A A 27% 43% 31% A+ A+ A+ A A+ D F A- F
1.14 56% 22% 40% -1 +1 1.02 51% 0.7 .37 17% .38 73% .27 0.87 31% 43% 27% -9 -4 0.78 20% 0.8 .15 17% .45 65% .29
Jan
31		 California Baptist D F A- F+ D 32% 25% 42% D D A- F C- D+ C A B D C- D+ C D- 36% 34% 30% A+ D+ A+ F D F F B- F
0.99 42% 47% 28% -7 -1 0.86 34% 0.7 .23 17% .32 81% .26 1.11 56% 41% 33% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.4 .38 13% .53 69% .37
Feb
5		 Utah Tech C+ D B F F 46% 18% 36% C F+ C A+ A A+ F F F D+ B D+ D- C+ 48% 21% 31% C- C D- F F F D- C D-
1.10 55% 42% 21% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.4 .47 10% .16 64% .10 1.14 54% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 33% 1.2 .39 12% .30 70% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Utah Valley C C A+ F A- 55% 24% 21% B- A- B+ F D- F A+ D- A+ F A F F F 37% 12% 51% B F D- D- F F+ F F F
1.02 56% 88% 14% +4 +1 1.12 36% 0.6 .23 25% .64 68% .43 1.38 47% 60% 52% +13 +1 1.29 42% 1.2 .50 17% .45 91% .41
Feb
12		 Abilene Christian D- B+ A+ B+ A- 63% 23% 14% B- A- F+ A- D F A- F C+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% C+ A C F F+ F D+ D- D
0.94 68% 50% 40% +10 +1 1.26 19% 1.3 .24 33% .51 65% .33 1.00 47% 23% 25% -13 -1 0.75 33% 1.1 .38 16% .36 75% .27
Feb
14		 Southern Utah D- F A+ C F+ 45% 26% 30% C- D- D+ D- D C+ A+ C- A+ D- D+ F D- F 36% 29% 36% A- F F B D+ A- F C+ F
1.05 38% 58% 36% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.8 .24 13% .48 69% .33 1.12 63% 69% 38% +12 -1 1.24 36% 0.9 .32 23% .43 70% .30
Feb
19		 Utah Tech D- A F F F 49% 21% 30% C F A B- A F+ C- F D- A+ A- F A+ A+ 13% 33% 54% A+ A+ A+ A- A B- C F D
1.03 74% 0% 14% -9 +1 0.85 43% 1.1 .46 20% .28 57% .16 0.82 50% 47% 20% -10 -3 0.76 20% 0.7 .14 18% .24 83% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.2 2nd
3rd 2.3 6.4 1.5 10.1 3rd
4th 7.8 31.3 32.2 10.5 0.3 82.0 4th
5th 3.9 1.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.5 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 12.2 32.3 34.5 17.6 3.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 5.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 3.5% 16.0% 16.0% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.9
10-8 17.6% 11.8% 11.8% 13.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 15.5
9-9 34.5% 9.0% 9.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.0 0.0 31.4
8-10 32.3% 7.0% 7.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.2 30.0
7-11 12.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 11.7
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 14.3 91.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.0 20.4 62.3 17.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 5.0%