Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#234
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#193
Pace71.5#112
Improvement+3.7#16

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#288
First Shot-4.2#289
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#171
Layup/Dunks-2.1#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#340
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+1.2#79

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#156
First Shot+1.9#114
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#266
Layups/Dunks+4.0#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
Freethrows-3.7#328
Improvement+2.5#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 15.9% 18.7% 6.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.6% 44.4% 31.5%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.8% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 11.5% 18.4%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.9%
First Round2.8% 3.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 77.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 47 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 40   @ Oklahoma St. L 45-88 7%     0 - 1 -29.9 -19.2 -9.5
  Nov 16, 2021 128   Abilene Christian L 71-80 OT 38%     0 - 2 -9.6 -10.3 +2.0
  Nov 18, 2021 106   @ North Texas L 36-64 15%     0 - 3 -20.7 -26.8 +2.8
  Nov 20, 2021 52   @ San Diego St. L 62-68 8%     0 - 4 +5.9 +0.8 +5.0
  Nov 27, 2021 50   @ Utah St. L 61-80 8%     0 - 5 -6.7 -5.5 -1.4
  Nov 29, 2021 115   @ UC Santa Barbara W 70-62 17%     1 - 5 +14.6 -2.0 +16.5
  Dec 11, 2021 313   Lamar W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 16, 2021 166   @ Oral Roberts L 71-78 26%    
  Dec 19, 2021 29   @ Oklahoma L 58-77 4%    
  Dec 30, 2021 122   South Alabama L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 01, 2022 262   Troy W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 06, 2022 145   @ Georgia St. L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 08, 2022 196   @ Georgia Southern L 62-67 31%    
  Jan 13, 2022 189   Louisiana W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 15, 2022 259   Louisiana Monroe W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 20, 2022 228   @ Arkansas St. L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 22, 2022 288   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 27, 2022 141   Texas St. L 64-67 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 141   @ Texas St. L 61-70 23%    
  Feb 03, 2022 173   Coastal Carolina L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 170   Appalachian St. L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 10, 2022 259   @ Louisiana Monroe L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 189   @ Louisiana L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 17, 2022 288   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 228   Arkansas St. W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 24, 2022 262   @ Troy L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 122   @ South Alabama L 65-75 20%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.0 4.2 1.2 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 5.2 1.9 0.2 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.7 4.2 0.6 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.6 0.9 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.5 1.5 0.0 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 9.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 6.2 9.2 11.2 12.8 13.2 12.2 10.4 7.8 5.4 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 85.6% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 62.1% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 30.2% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 45.5% 45.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 25.9% 25.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 19.3% 19.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.6% 17.0% 17.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-5 3.1% 12.6% 12.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.7
12-6 5.4% 10.2% 10.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.9
11-7 7.8% 7.3% 7.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 7.2
10-8 10.4% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.1 0.3 10.0
9-9 12.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.1 0.3 11.9
8-10 13.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.0
7-11 12.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.8
6-12 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.2
5-13 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.1
4-14 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.3 96.9 0.0%