Chesterton
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #30
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #3
Chesterton Regional Rank #3
New Prairie Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 22nd place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.2%
Advance to State Finals 88.3%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional
Date 8/21 9/4 9/11 9/18 10/2 10/9 10/16
Team Rating 440 464 395 381 441 465 659 426
Team Adjusted Rating 464 395 381 399 465 490 426
State RankRunnerSeason Rating NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional
124  Cole Dolson 12 16:43 16:43 16:23 16:21 17:01 16:49 16:57 16:49
153  Jackson Tuck 11 16:51 17:06 16:50 16:47 16:32 16:58 17:03 16:50
191  Evan O'Connor 10 16:58 17:12 16:59 16:48 16:49 17:13 17:01
372  Bobby Berger 11 17:27 17:25 17:33 17:53 17:04 17:17 17:24
381  Max Welbourne 10 17:28 17:05 16:57 17:33 17:46 17:37
406  Josh Tuck 11 17:31 17:23 17:56 17:29
426  Reece Erow 12 17:34 18:17 17:59 17:42 17:59 17:42 18:01 17:16
1,237  Tyler Herzog 10 18:45 18:36 18:43 19:01 18:51 18:49 18:31
1,243  Oliver Wilgocki 10 18:45 18:40 18:51 18:41 18:56 18:39 18:46
Matt Long 11 19:00 19:08 18:51 19:15 18:49
Drew Carpenter 11 19:12 19:26 19:07 18:55 19:38 19:12
Trevor Arlington 10 19:13 19:07 18:54 19:16 21:17




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 88.3% 21.2 504 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.8 5.5 10.3 16.4 18.6 15.5 11.6
Semi-State 100% 4.0 143 7.9 15.7 22.4 19.4 13.5 9.4 6.0 3.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 3.1 81 7.5 16.2 36.6 34.9 4.6 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.7 63 10.0 19.8 64.7 5.5 0.0



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Dolson 92.6% 105.6 37.2% 79.2%
Jackson Tuck 89.1% 119.4 7.3% 55.0%
Evan O'Connor 88.4% 131.0 1.2% 32.2%
Bobby Berger 88.3% 172.1 0.0% 0.3%
Max Welbourne 88.3% 173.8 0.0% 0.2%
Josh Tuck 88.3% 177.3 0.0% 0.0%
Reece Erow 88.3% 180.6 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Dolson 100% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.4 4.0 4.2 5.0 4.9 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.3 5.1 5.1 3.7 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.1 2.1 100.0%
Jackson Tuck 100% 20.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.0 5.0 4.2 5.1 4.0 4.7 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.5 100.0%
Evan O'Connor 100% 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.2 4.1 4.7 100.0%
Bobby Berger 100% 60.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 95.1%
Max Welbourne 100% 62.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 93.5%
Josh Tuck 100% 68.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.7%
Reece Erow 100% 72.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Dolson 100% 8.4 0.0 0.7 2.1 4.3 5.1 8.6 10.4 12.6 17.1 16.2 9.4 6.0 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Jackson Tuck 100% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.2 10.2 14.6 18.5 12.9 8.5 6.4 3.9 2.6 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Evan O'Connor 100% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.1 7.1 12.1 15.7 12.8 10.6 8.2 6.5 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.3 100.0%
Bobby Berger 100% 26.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.3 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.3 6.0 100.0%
Max Welbourne 100% 26.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.3 4.7 4.8 5.7 5.1 100.0%
Josh Tuck 100% 29.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.7 100.0%
Reece Erow 100% 30.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.7 3.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Dolson 6.1 0.2 4.5 6.0 10.1 11.9 14.7 28.6 13.6 5.3 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jackson Tuck 7.6 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.9 6.2 7.9 14.9 26.3 17.7 9.2 5.1 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Evan O'Connor 8.9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.9 13.5 25.8 15.5 10.5 7.5 4.8 3.1 2.5 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bobby Berger 20.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.0 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.2 6.2 7.0 7.0 8.5 7.7 6.3 6.4 5.2
Max Welbourne 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.8 5.7 6.1 7.1 7.5 8.0 7.1 7.5 6.9 5.7
Josh Tuck 22.3 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.6 6.4 7.1 7.6 8.1 8.0 7.2
Reece Erow 23.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.8 4.1 5.2 6.0 7.3 6.9 8.1 8.2