Chesterton
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #4
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #1
Chesterton Regional Rank #1
New Prairie Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 4th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.7%
Top 5 at State Finals 47.3%
Top 10 at State Finals 87.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season Rating Valley Cross Kick-Off NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/15 8/21 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 213 175 372 183 444 228 1,026 245 308 302 226 225
Team Adjusted Rating 175 372 183 444 228 213 245 239 236 226 225
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Valley Cross Kick-Off NIC Stomp Marion Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
17  Bailey Ranta 12 18:47 18:32 18:47 17:59 19:08 18:16 21:17 19:17 19:01 18:55 18:39
59  Catherine White 12 19:26 18:39 20:33 19:04 19:58 19:12 19:19 19:30 19:34 19:26 19:27
102  Grace Carpenter 11 19:47 20:53 20:49 20:21 21:48 20:10 19:44 20:03 19:50 19:39
105  Alyssa Dunlap 11 19:48 19:31 20:42 19:50 21:07 19:59 19:52 20:03 20:10 19:40
112  Ciara Bonner 10 19:49 19:44 20:39 19:34 21:05 22:08 19:43 19:50 19:39 20:29
190  Bri Gentry 12 20:18 20:16 20:48 19:56 21:13 20:07 19:57 20:12 20:25 20:35
196  Payton Leady 10 20:20 19:58 20:42
342  Isabella Smith 12 20:59 20:50 21:28 21:15 20:40 20:49 21:09 21:04
348  Ali Sierazy 10 21:01 20:30 22:12 20:24 21:54 20:48 21:02 20:56 21:07
428  Addison Leady 12 21:18 21:35 20:53 21:22 22:15 21:18 21:12 21:08 21:19
612  Madison Trumbo 10 21:47 21:06 21:38 22:11 21:58 21:50
818  Caroline Mills 9 22:20 23:05 21:57 22:01 23:19 22:20 22:22 22:00
852  Sydney Szabo 10 22:23 22:34 22:41 22:03 22:37 22:29 22:08
908  Alaina McGrogan 9 22:30 22:39 22:39 22:47 22:22 22:14
1,059  Liz Hibshman 12 22:48 22:12 22:18 24:51 22:45 23:03
1,093  Anna Johnston 12 22:53 22:39 21:55 22:00 23:06 22:49 23:45 23:11
1,113  Alex Reed 10 22:55 22:00 22:33 22:43 22:52 23:30 23:35
1,169  Veronica Wilgocki 9 23:03 22:51 23:09 22:23 23:17 22:34 24:20
1,229  Olivia Kozak 11 23:11 23:14 23:15 23:07 22:44 23:41
1,245  Rachel Cohen 11 23:13 22:47 22:51 22:55 23:17 23:30 23:46
Alissa Capehart 12 23:32 22:58 23:35 23:48
Mckenna Handley 12 23:34 22:38 23:24 23:47 23:37 23:58
Ellie McClelland 9 23:47 23:03 23:45 23:32 23:47 23:45 24:50
Kylia Peterson 9 24:40 24:23 23:52 26:23 23:42 26:15




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 6.5 234 0.7 3.8 13.7 15.7 13.4 11.1 9.4 7.9 6.4 5.0 4.0 3.2 2.2 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.1 51 88.4 11.4 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.1 37 86.9 13.1 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.2 35 84.3 15.7



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bailey Ranta 100% 19.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.2 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.3 4.3 3.6 3.0 100.0%
Catherine White 100% 56.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 95.7%
Grace Carpenter 100% 92.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.8%
Alyssa Dunlap 100% 93.8 0.0 0.0 61.4%
Ciara Bonner 100% 95.5 0.0 58.2%
Bri Gentry 100% 137.1 6.0%
Isabella Smith 100% 167.8 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bailey Ranta 100% 3.6 1.0 6.2 16.8 45.1 18.3 7.9 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Catherine White 100% 8.7 0.0 0.3 5.0 9.3 12.2 13.6 13.0 10.8 8.1 6.6 4.8 4.0 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Grace Carpenter 100% 16.6 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 3.3 4.5 5.5 5.6 6.6 6.1 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.0 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.7 100.0%
Alyssa Dunlap 100% 17.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.0 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.5 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.1 3.1 100.0%
Ciara Bonner 100% 17.8 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.1 3.4 4.0 4.8 5.4 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.7 3.9 3.4 3.2 100.0%
Bri Gentry 100% 36.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.3 100.0%
Isabella Smith 100% 72.3 0.0 98.8%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bailey Ranta 100% 2.5 6.0 17.5 55.6 19.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Catherine White 100% 4.9 0.0 0.5 14.0 41.0 22.8 10.8 5.3 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Grace Carpenter 100% 8.3 0.6 3.6 10.1 15.4 16.4 14.3 11.7 9.6 6.8 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Alyssa Dunlap 100% 8.6 0.0 0.4 3.0 9.3 13.2 15.2 15.4 12.9 9.9 6.8 5.0 3.5 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ciara Bonner 100% 8.9 0.3 2.7 7.6 11.7 14.9 14.9 13.4 11.3 7.7 5.4 3.7 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Bri Gentry 100% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.9 7.0 8.7 9.6 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.6 8.4 7.0 4.6 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 100.0%
Isabella Smith 100% 25.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.9 5.0 6.2 8.4 10.1 11.2 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bailey Ranta 2.5 6.0 18.0 54.7 19.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
Catherine White 4.8 0.1 0.5 15.0 42.3 23.6 10.5 4.6 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Grace Carpenter 7.8 0.5 3.9 11.9 17.6 19.1 17.5 13.3 7.6 4.1 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Alyssa Dunlap 8.1 0.0 0.3 3.3 10.2 16.4 18.5 18.8 14.0 8.3 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Ciara Bonner 8.3 0.2 2.3 8.7 14.4 18.1 18.7 16.2 10.0 5.2 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
Bri Gentry 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.4 12.7 15.3 14.0 13.3 13.5 15.0 5.6 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Isabella Smith 18.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.8 11.5 17.0 16.6 11.8 9.8 8.2 5.7 3.9 2.7