Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #9
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 7th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 7.1%
Top 10 at State Finals 60.0%
Advance to State Finals 95.1%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational West Noble Invitational
Date 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/18
Team Rating 241 184 260 319 275
Team Adjusted Rating 184 260 236 275
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational West Noble Invitational
15  Karsten Schlegel 12 15:49 15:29 15:55 16:34
50  Gabriel Connelly 12 16:14 15:53 16:25 16:24 16:03
63  Daniel Adair 12 16:18 16:00 16:12 16:22 16:29
205  Ben Bentz 10 16:59 17:41 16:49 16:49 16:51
229  Zac Shaw 12 17:03 16:57 17:35 16:53 17:04
308  Kevin Zehr 11 17:15 16:52 17:16 17:13 17:27
410  Will Schlegel 9 17:29 17:25 17:55 17:19 17:26
465  Vaughn Hendrickson 10 17:37 17:18 17:20 17:46 17:54
657  Charlie Fikes 12 17:58 18:12
1,085  Cillian Hoover 9 18:34 18:38 18:56 18:26 18:22
1,095  Nick Spielman 10 18:35 18:50 18:59 18:25 18:23
1,290  Max Adair 10 18:52 18:18 18:47 20:12 19:00
Jon Clem 11 19:08 19:27 19:08 19:15 18:42
Alex Jones 10 19:24 19:28 19:31 19:00 19:33




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 95.1% 9.7 301 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 5.1 10.0 11.6 11.4 10.9 8.9 8.2 6.3 5.9 4.6 3.5 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 3.9 148 0.7 9.6 36.7 26.9 14.5 6.7 3.4 0.9 0.6 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.2 55 80.7 14.9 3.6 0.6 0.2
Sectionals 100% 1.2 46 80.6 15.3 3.5 0.6



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 100.0% 16.9 0.2 0.6 1.8 2.3 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.5 4.7 4.1 4.0 3.4 4.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.3 99.6% 99.9%
Gabriel Connelly 96.3% 54.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 24.9% 78.8%
Daniel Adair 95.6% 62.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 9.8% 67.8%
Ben Bentz 95.1% 140.1 0.0% 0.0%
Zac Shaw 95.1% 147.0 0.0% 0.0%
Kevin Zehr 95.1% 164.1 0.0% 0.0%
Will Schlegel 95.1% 179.4 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 100% 5.8 0.2 7.7 13.0 11.0 10.3 10.4 8.3 8.1 6.2 5.6 4.5 3.5 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Gabriel Connelly 100% 19.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.1 4.9 4.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.8 4.8 4.7 4.1 4.6 3.9 100.0%
Daniel Adair 100% 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.8 2.6 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.6 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.9 100.0%
Ben Bentz 100% 58.2 0.0 85.9%
Zac Shaw 100% 63.6 76.5%
Kevin Zehr 100% 79.7 41.5%
Will Schlegel 100% 100.6 8.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 100% 1.9 0.1 58.7 23.3 10.5 4.0 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Gabriel Connelly 100% 6.3 0.0 5.6 10.7 14.3 15.0 16.4 16.8 10.9 6.0 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 100.0%
Daniel Adair 100% 7.3 2.1 5.5 9.0 12.2 15.0 17.6 19.0 10.4 5.0 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ben Bentz 100% 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 4.6 5.3 6.4 7.0 7.6 7.7 7.1 6.3 6.3 6.0 4.6 4.4 3.6 100.0%
Zac Shaw 100% 21.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 2.1 3.2 3.2 4.7 5.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 7.2 6.6 5.8 5.7 5.2 100.0%
Kevin Zehr 100% 29.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.7 3.2 4.2 4.2 99.9%
Will Schlegel 100% 39.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 97.7%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Karsten Schlegel 1.0 59.8 23.7 9.5 4.2 2.6 0.1 0.0
Gabriel Connelly 4.8 0.1 6.0 11.0 18.6 17.7 24.0 16.8 3.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1
Daniel Adair 5.6 0.0 1.9 6.6 11.5 16.0 21.7 27.8 8.8 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ben Bentz 15.3 0.1 1.7 3.2 4.8 6.3 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 7.9 7.3 6.4 5.8 4.5 3.8 2.5 2.0 1.4
Zac Shaw 17.3 0.0 0.7 1.1 2.4 3.1 4.6 5.7 6.2 7.0 8.6 8.5 7.5 8.2 7.2 6.6 5.2 4.9 3.8 3.0
Kevin Zehr 22.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.9 3.8 4.9 5.1 6.9 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.8 8.4
Will Schlegel 28.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.6 4.6 5.6