Goshen
Boys - Girls
2020 - 2021 - 2022
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State Rank #10
New Haven Semi-State Rank #4
Elkhart Central Regional Rank #1
Elkhart Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 8th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 4.5%
Top 10 at State Finals 65.3%
Advance to State Finals 95.3%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Penn Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Harrison (WL) Invitational Minutemen Invitational NLC Round Robin 2 West Noble Invitational
Date 8/28 8/31 9/4 9/11 9/14 9/18
Team Rating 248 515 240 233 241 214 261
Team Adjusted Rating 289 240 233 241 214 261
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Penn Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Harrison (WL) Invitational Minutemen Invitational NLC Round Robin 2 West Noble Invitational
11  Drew Hogan 12 15:47 15:38 15:42 15:58 16:00 15:50
14  Cole Johnston 12 15:49 15:52 15:45 15:59 15:41 15:54
42  Tommy Claxton 11 16:07 16:09 16:10 15:52 16:09 16:03 16:12
233  Luis Loera 11 17:04 17:31 16:59 17:10 16:54 16:56 17:05
384  Adrian Mora 12 17:26 17:34 17:26 17:20 17:32 17:10 17:26
408  Tyler Wiese 12 17:29 17:28 17:24 17:25 17:21 17:41 17:35
519  Alex Lopez 10 17:42 17:36 17:32 18:50 17:44 17:51
618  Oliver Biek 11 17:54 17:55 17:51 17:57 18:01 17:31 18:36
810  Brady Abney 10 18:12 17:46 18:17 18:33 18:16 18:06 18:07
1,158  David Dominguez 11 18:40 18:39 18:40 19:04 18:30 18:36
1,206  Logan Harkenrider 12 18:43 18:25 18:44 23:23
Angel Hernandez Barcenas 12 19:04 19:12 19:11 18:44
Bryan Sixtos-Armas 11 19:06 19:33 19:11 18:53 18:54
Michael Smith 12 19:24 20:12 19:51 18:53 19:34 19:08




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 95.3% 9.3 297 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 10.6 13.6 14.3 12.3 10.0 8.4 7.2 5.5 3.7 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Semi-State 100% 4.1 153 0.2 6.1 32.2 30.5 17.9 8.3 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.6 59 54.8 34.8 10.1 0.3
Sectionals 100% 1.4 40 62.2 37.6 0.2



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Drew Hogan 99.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.5 3.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.0 97.9% 99.8%
Cole Johnston 100.0% 16.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 2.8 3.4 4.1 4.6 5.2 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.2 3.8 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.6 99.1% 99.8%
Tommy Claxton 97.2% 42.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.5 40.9% 91.3%
Luis Loera 95.3% 148.2 0.0% 0.1%
Adrian Mora 95.3% 176.4 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Wiese 95.3% 179.4 0.0% 0.0%
Alex Lopez 95.3% 189.3 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Drew Hogan 100% 5.2 0.2 9.6 13.1 14.2 11.1 10.2 8.9 7.5 5.6 4.2 3.9 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Cole Johnston 100% 5.8 6.7 10.5 12.0 12.8 10.0 9.7 8.3 6.3 4.8 4.2 3.9 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Tommy Claxton 100% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.8 3.9 4.4 5.1 5.0 5.5 6.1 7.0 6.7 5.7 5.4 5.0 5.2 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.4 100.0%
Luis Loera 100% 65.2 0.0 0.0 99.5%
Adrian Mora 100% 96.4 83.0%
Tyler Wiese 100% 100.9 74.7%
Alex Lopez 100% 119.0 37.9%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Drew Hogan 100% 1.9 16.9 35.1 25.5 12.0 7.6 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Cole Johnston 100% 2.3 11.7 27.8 31.1 14.7 10.7 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Tommy Claxton 100% 5.5 0.0 0.4 2.8 16.9 16.1 27.3 18.4 10.1 4.4 2.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Luis Loera 100% 18.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 9.0 8.0 8.5 7.2 7.1 7.5 6.4 5.4 4.3 3.4 100.0%
Adrian Mora 100% 29.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.3 2.2 3.2 3.4 4.5 5.1 100.0%
Tyler Wiese 100% 30.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.9 3.4 100.0%
Alex Lopez 100% 37.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Drew Hogan 1.7 17.4 45.9 32.5 3.8 0.5 0.0
Cole Johnston 2.0 12.5 37.0 43.4 6.1 0.8 0.1
Tommy Claxton 3.8 0.0 0.4 4.8 54.5 26.8 11.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.1
Luis Loera 12.7 0.1 1.0 2.5 7.4 8.8 9.5 13.3 10.1 10.1 11.0 14.5 7.2 2.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adrian Mora 18.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.9 2.8 3.9 5.8 13.9 16.0 14.6 11.3 9.0 7.1 5.5 2.8 2.0
Tyler Wiese 19.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.1 9.3 14.3 13.6 12.3 11.9 9.6 7.1 4.8 3.1
Alex Lopez 23.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.9 5.2 7.4 9.0 9.8 12.3 13.4 12.2