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State Rank #26
New Haven Semi-State Rank #8
West Noble Regional Rank #3
Northrop Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season Rating Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Wildcat Classic West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Nike Valley Twilight Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30
Team Rating 430 485 389 385 1,042 356 434 477 469 409 434
Team Adjusted Rating 463 389 385 430 356 434 477 469 409 434
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Wildcat Classic West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Nike Valley Twilight Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
37  Ethan Baitz 12 16:12 16:34 16:06 15:57 16:07 16:03 16:06 16:23 16:07 16:12 16:23
203  Chase Molden 12 17:02 16:48 16:52 16:41 16:41 16:58 17:33 17:00 17:11 17:09
225  Aiden Waugh 9 17:06 17:33 17:03 17:03 16:49 17:01 17:12 17:12 17:04 17:06
333  Grayson Welch 11 17:27 17:19 17:11 17:17 17:12 17:35 17:31 17:35 17:20 17:41
354  Ben Johnson 12 17:28 17:30 17:35 17:22 17:38 17:27 17:38 17:20 17:22
396  Jude Minich 12 17:34 17:52 17:42 17:48 17:43 18:02 17:40 17:16 17:29
691  Anthony Gery 11 18:05 18:00 17:54 17:45 18:21 18:17 18:00
715  Evan McMahon 9 18:08 18:11 17:39 18:13 18:20 18:18 18:07 17:49 18:25
745  Ayden Cooper 10 18:10 18:14 17:37 18:06 17:58 18:14 18:39
800  Hudson Gates 10 18:15 17:49 18:10 18:02 18:20 18:29 18:20
857  Carson Heckman 11 18:20 17:45 18:46 17:53 18:26 18:25 18:24
1,018  Josh Rodgers 9 18:34 18:57 19:43 18:09 18:32 18:04 18:41
1,120  Trevor Nadeau 12 18:42 18:46 18:51 18:39 18:54 18:42 18:27
1,290  Tim Smith 9 18:54 19:20 18:53 19:06 18:46 18:52 18:51
1,292  Ethan Widenhoefer 10 18:54 19:02 19:04 19:07 18:47 18:44
1,300  Johnnie Ankenbruck 9 18:55 19:01 18:46 19:23 18:59 18:50 18:41
Anthony Tomaszewski 9 19:03 19:09 18:59 19:01 19:07 18:57 19:08
Chris Martin 11 19:05 19:01 19:16 18:59 19:15 18:55 19:08
Tyler Hess 10 19:14 18:37 18:48 20:00
Caleb Wood 12 19:15 20:01 19:37 19:22 19:10 19:17 18:40
Reuben Bowie 10 19:18 19:27 19:36 19:07
Matthew Norrod 11 19:21 19:25 19:27 19:31 19:20 19:26 19:02
Owen Hill 9 19:22 19:55 20:33 18:43 19:05 18:58 20:02
Britton Shumard 10 19:25 19:54 19:45 19:25 19:25 19:04
Aidan Houser 12 19:27 19:44 20:15 19:39 19:28 19:20 18:57
Brendan Malone 11 19:43 20:02 19:06 20:02 19:41




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 100% 7.6 231 0.3 1.5 7.6 17.8 22.9 24.6 13.8 6.8 3.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.6 82 15.3 33.8 35.3 11.4 3.6 0.6
Sectionals 100% 2.6 75 15.1 29.5 40.0 14.3 1.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Baitz 94.5% 40.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.7 94.5% 94.5%
Chase Molden 0.3% 98.2 0.3% 0.3%
Aiden Waugh 0.0% 98.5 0.1% 0.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Baitz 100% 15.3 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.4 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.7 2.8 2.3 100.0%
Chase Molden 100% 51.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.3%
Aiden Waugh 100% 57.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.6%
Grayson Welch 100% 81.7 41.8%
Ben Johnson 100% 83.8 36.9%
Jude Minich 100% 91.0 21.9%
Evan McMahon 100% 138.0 0.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Baitz 100% 4.3 7.4 16.0 21.1 21.2 15.6 9.6 5.0 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Chase Molden 100% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.7 7.8 9.8 10.7 10.6 9.8 8.4 7.6 6.0 5.1 3.8 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.2 100.0%
Aiden Waugh 100% 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.4 3.6 5.9 7.6 8.7 9.5 9.5 8.7 7.7 6.5 5.7 5.3 4.1 3.0 2.4 100.0%
Grayson Welch 100% 28.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.4 5.1 5.3 100.0%
Ben Johnson 100% 29.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.5 3.9 4.5 4.7 100.0%
Jude Minich 100% 33.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.9 99.9%
Evan McMahon 100% 54.3 72.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Baitz 3.2 7.3 16.3 22.5 22.8 17.3 9.4 3.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Chase Molden 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 5.6 9.9 13.1 13.4 12.3 11.0 8.3 7.1 5.3 4.3 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
Aiden Waugh 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.0 7.7 9.7 11.7 10.6 11.1 10.1 7.8 6.1 4.7 3.8 2.8 2.1 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.4
Grayson Welch 21.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 2.7 3.9 4.6 6.3 6.1 7.8 7.9 7.5 7.6 8.2 7.5
Ben Johnson 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2 2.2 3.1 3.8 4.8 5.4 6.3 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.3
Jude Minich 25.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.9 5.7 6.3 7.4 8.4
Evan McMahon 36.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0