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State Rank #25
New Haven Semi-State Rank #8
West Noble Regional Rank #3
Northrop Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 7th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.5%
Advance to State Finals 30.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Wildcat Classic West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Nike Valley Twilight Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional
Date 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16
Team Rating 396 464 373 370 1,013 339 415 455 440 378
Team Adjusted Rating 444 373 370 396 339 415 455 440 378
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Wildcat Classic West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Nike Valley Twilight Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional
24  Ethan Baitz 12 16:06 16:31 16:04 15:55 16:05 16:01 16:04 16:19 16:03
173  Chase Molden 12 16:54 16:45 16:50 16:39 16:38 16:55 17:29 16:56 17:06
208  Aiden Waugh 9 17:02 17:29 17:00 17:00 16:46 16:58 17:08 17:07 16:59
305  Grayson Welch 11 17:18 17:16 17:08 17:14 17:09 17:32 17:27 17:30 17:14
366  Ben Johnson 12 17:26 17:26 17:31 17:18 17:35 17:23 17:33 17:14
387  Jude Minich 12 17:28 17:48 17:39 17:44 17:39 17:57 17:34 17:11
638  Anthony Gery 11 17:57 17:55 17:51 17:41 18:16 18:13 17:56
686  Evan McMahon 9 18:01 18:06 17:36 18:09 18:16 18:13 18:02 17:43
702  Ayden Cooper 10 18:03 18:09 17:33 18:02 17:54 18:09 18:32
762  Hudson Gates 10 18:08 17:45 18:06 17:58 18:15 18:24 18:15
797  Carson Heckman 11 18:11 17:41 18:42 17:50 18:21 18:20 18:19
1,044  Josh Rodgers 9 18:31 18:51 19:37 18:06 18:27 18:00 18:36
1,142  Trevor Nadeau 12 18:38 18:41 18:47 18:34 18:49 18:37 18:22
1,310  Johnnie Ankenbruck 9 18:50 18:56 18:41 19:18 18:54 18:45 18:35
1,311  Tim Smith 9 18:51 19:13 18:48 19:01 18:40 18:46 18:45
1,315  Ethan Widenhoefer 10 18:51 18:56 18:59 19:02 18:42 18:38
1,359  Tyler Hess 10 18:55 18:32 18:44 19:53
1,394  Anthony Tomaszewski 9 18:58 19:02 18:54 18:57 19:01 18:52 19:02
1,421  Chris Martin 11 19:00 18:55 19:11 18:55 19:09 18:49 19:02
Caleb Wood 12 19:13 19:54 19:31 19:16 19:04 19:12 18:34
Reuben Bowie 10 19:16 19:21 19:30 19:01
Matthew Norrod 11 19:16 19:18 19:22 19:26 19:14 19:20 18:56
Owen Hill 9 19:20 19:48 20:26 18:38 18:59 18:53 19:54
Britton Shumard 10 19:23 19:47 19:39 19:20 19:18 18:58
Aidan Houser 12 19:25 19:37 20:08 19:33 19:21 19:14 18:51
Brendan Malone 11 19:38 19:56 19:01 19:55 19:34




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 30.0% 16.8 411 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.2 2.2 2.4 3.8 4.5 4.6 3.9 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.2
Semi-State 100% 7.4 221 0.0 0.8 3.8 8.3 17.2 22.4 21.2 14.8 7.9 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.6 83 13.9 38.2 27.8 14.1 5.0 1.0 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.6 74 13.7 35.3 32.5 17.3 1.2 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Baitz 98.7% 29.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.9 98.1% 98.7%
Chase Molden 30.2% 113.5 0.2% 1.6%
Aiden Waugh 30.1% 126.5 0.0% 0.3%
Grayson Welch 30.0% 151.2 0.0% 0.0%
Ben Johnson 30.0% 163.6 0.0% 0.0%
Jude Minich 30.0% 165.8 0.0% 0.0%
Anthony Gery 30.0% 193.9 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Baitz 100% 10.8 0.5 1.9 3.1 4.1 6.4 7.4 7.1 7.5 7.1 6.5 6.3 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.2 3.8 2.7 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.0 100.0%
Chase Molden 100% 48.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 95.5%
Aiden Waugh 100% 56.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 85.7%
Grayson Welch 100% 77.7 41.9%
Ben Johnson 100% 88.4 19.0%
Jude Minich 100% 92.4 15.0%
Anthony Gery 100% 133.2 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Baitz 100% 3.0 0.0 20.0 30.2 17.7 12.9 7.8 5.3 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Chase Molden 100% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.8 4.7 8.6 10.4 11.4 11.3 10.7 8.3 6.2 4.7 3.9 3.4 3.1 1.9 1.5 1.3 100.0%
Aiden Waugh 100% 18.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.3 6.2 7.2 8.1 8.6 8.6 8.0 7.3 6.1 4.5 5.7 4.5 3.9 100.0%
Grayson Welch 100% 27.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.2 3.1 4.1 3.8 4.2 5.1 5.4 4.6 99.8%
Ben Johnson 100% 33.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.7 3.2 98.7%
Jude Minich 100% 35.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.8 2.4 98.6%
Anthony Gery 100% 54.4 47.4%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Baitz 1.9 22.3 30.5 19.4 12.7 7.9 4.1 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chase Molden 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.9 9.6 14.9 14.3 14.0 10.4 7.8 6.1 5.1 3.6 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Aiden Waugh 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.7 8.8 10.1 11.5 11.0 10.1 9.1 7.1 6.1 4.2 3.4 2.5 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7
Grayson Welch 20.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.3 5.6 6.4 7.4 7.0 8.2 7.9 8.1 7.2 6.9 6.4
Ben Johnson 24.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.5 3.0 4.1 4.7 5.5 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.9
Jude Minich 25.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.5 4.2 5.6 6.2 7.3 8.1
Anthony Gery 37.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0